ML20133C170

Expresses Appreciation for 850308 Facility Tour.S&W Viewgraphs on Assessment of Radiological Consequences of Postulated Reactor Accidents & Jan 1985 marked-up Commission Paper Updating Accident Source Term Reassessment Encl

ML20133C170
Person / Time
Site:	05000000, Shoreham
Issue date:	03/12/1985
From:	Bernthal F NRC COMMISSION (OCM)
To:	Eselgroth P NRC OFFICE OF INSPECTION & ENFORCEMENT (IE REGION I)
Shared Package
ML20132B257	List: ML20132B251 ML20133B729 ML20133B881 ML20133B932 ML20133B978 ML20133C017 ML20133C074 ML20133C101 ML20133C120 ML20133C135 ML20133C155 ML20133C170
References
FOIA-85-199 NUDOCS 8507200455
Download: ML20133C170 (25)

Text

/

%q#o*

/kQq UNITED STATES

^

NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION n

h E

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20555

's*****/

March 12, 1985 OFFICE OF THE COMMISSIONER Mr. Peter W.'Eselgroth Senior Resident Inspector Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission P. O. Box B Rocky Point, New York 11778

Dear Mr. Eselgroth:

I want to thank you for conducting me and my staff on a tour of the Shoreham plant on Friday, March 8, 1985. Your sensitivity to the prohibitions on discussion of litigated issues was much appreciated.

I was impressed by the cleanliness and general sense of order at the plant.

I am sure that your efforts as the onsite inspector have contributed to this overall state of " good housekeeping."

I would like to see more plants perform as well in this regard.

Thanks again for your assistance.

Sincerely, i--

E _Y v

Frederick M. Bernthal cc:

T. Murley l

l B507200455 850528 BkAIRB-199 PDR

c6 r

l l

l l

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE i

RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF POSTULATED REACTOR ACCIDENTS 4

STONE & WEBSTER ENGINEERING CORPORATION 82-28,145

l.

l BASESFOR l

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS l

l e PUBLIC DOES NOT UNDERSTAND PROBABILITIES e PUBLIC CAN RELATE TO QUOTED POTENTIAL HEALTH EFFECTS e PUBLISHED HEALTH EFFECTS OF REACTOR ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN GROSSLY OVERESTIMATED FOR DECADES e OVERESTIMATIONS ARE DUE PRIMARILY TO INCORRECT (l.E. FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG) SOURCE TERM ASSUMPTIONS

. GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY IN THE 1980s BASE ANALYSES OF CONSEQUENCES OF ACCIDENTS ON INCORRECT ASSUMPTIONS FROM THE 1960s AND 1970s j

e ANTI-NUCLEAR GROUPS AMPLIFY SUCH MISINFORMATION

(" STUDY ESTIMATES 100,000 DEATHS POSSIBLE IN A N-POWER ACCIDENT" RECE NT W ASHINGION POST HE ADLINE )

jtz-2 4 6/R 1

RESULTS OF RECENT SWEC STUDY TIME IS A MAJOR DETERMINANT OF RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES e

PREVIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, THAT THE PRINCIPAL FORM OF RADIOIODINE IS e

GASEOUS I AND RELATIVELY INERT, ARE SHOWN TO BE UNSUPPORTABLE 2

RADIOIODINE WILL BE RELEASED FROM THE PRESSURE VESSEL IN THE FORM e

OF METAL IODIDES, PRINCIPALLY CESIUM IODIDE-WHICH IS MORE SOLUBLE IN WATER THAN TABLE SALT ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THAT THE SO-CALLED " DRY ACCIDENT" IS IN FACT e

A VERY WET ACCIDENT PROVIDING A NATURAL MECHANISM FOR REMOVAL OF SOLUBLE lODIDE SALTS THUS, THE AMOUNT OF AIRBORNE RADIOIODINE IS GREATLY REDUCED e

AEROSOL DEPLETION IS A PRINCIPAL MECHANISM IN REDUCING PARTICULATE e

SOURCE TERM (DEPLETION OCCURS IN PRESSURE VESSEL, COOLANT SYSTEM, CONTAINMENT, AND BUILDINGS) 82-28,723 1

4

\\

M AJOR N ATURAL MECH ANISMS WHICH AFFECT FISSION j

PRODUCT RELEASES l

NOBLE GASES

. TIME DELAY PRIOR TO AVAILABILITY FOR RELEASE RADIOIODINES e TIME DELAY PRIOR TO AVAviABILITY FOR RELEASE l

e CHEMICAL REACTIONS TO FORM COMPONENTS (E.G., Csi) l e VERY LITTLE LODINE VS. OTHER ELEMENTS (E.G., SEVEN l

TIMES AS MUCH Cs AS I) l e THERMODYNAMICS (RELATIVE BOILING POINTS) e SOLUBILITY OF METAL IODIDES IN WATER j!

e RETENTION IN PRESSURE VESSEL, PRIMARY COOLANT i

SYSTEM, AND CONTAINMENT

)

l PARTICULATES e TIME DELAY PRIOR TO AVAILABILITY FOR RELEASE e RETENTION IN CORE MATERIAL ITSELF i

e RETENTlON IN PRESSURE VESSEL, PRIMARY COOLANT I

SYSTEM, AND CONTAINMENT e THERMODYNAMICS i

e SOLUBILITY IN WATER e AEROSOL AGGLOMERATION l

e GRAVITATIONAL SETTLING e CONDENSATION j

i i

,.,n

t 9

PROPOSED ADQPTION OF AN'i

" INTERIM" SOURCE TERM TO BE EMPLOYED PENDING COMPLETION OF ONGOING CONFIRMATORY RESEARCH 82-28,719

PROPOSED INTERIM SOURCE TERM

(*/o OF CORE INVENTORY AVAILABLE FOR RELEASE TO ENVIRONMENT) l REACTOR SAFETY STUDY PROPOSED l

(WASH-1400) RELEASE INTERIM CATEGORY PWR-2 SOURCE TERM NOBLE GASES 90%

100 %

~

RADIOlODINES 70%

1%

PARTICULATES 50% CESIUM-RUBIDIUM l%

30% TELLURIUM-ANTIMONY 6% BARIUM-STRONTIUM 2% RUTHENIUM 0.4% LANTHANUM

82-28,189 i

. POTENTI AL HEALTH EFFECTS FOR A

24 HOUR RELEASE STARTING 2 /2 HOURS AFTER SHUTDOWN (NOTE: NUMBERS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ADDITIVE)

CATEGORY PROPOSED PWR-2 INTERIM i

RSS-RELEASE SOURCE TERM i

EARLY FATALITIES NOBLE GASES O

O i

RADIOlODINES 2,500 0

PARTICULATES 11,000 18 I

LATENT FATALITIES l

PER YEAR NOBLE GASES 6

8 l

RADIOIODINES 208

<1 I

PARTICULATES 333 17 LATENT THYROID i

CANCERS PER YEAR l

RADIOIODINE INHALATION 1,750 25 82-28,138A 1

COMMENTS ON SWEC STUDY RESULTS e RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES REPORTED ARE APPLICABLE TO PWR AND BWR PLANTS l

. PROPOSED INTERIM SOURCE TERM AND REPORTED CONSEQUENCES ARE STILL CONSERVATIVE e RESULTS OF SWEC STUDY ARE BASED ON MAJOR i

N ATUR AL MECH ANISMS AND NOT ACTIVE SAFETY SYSTEMS e MAGNITUDE OF HEALTH EFFECTS IS FAR FROM CATASTROPHIC FOR CLASS IX ACCIDENTS (i.E. CORE l

MELTDOWN ACCIDENTS POPULARIZED AS THE

" CHINA SYNDROME")

\\

AIRBORNE

=

POSTULATED START OF CORE DEGRADATION AEROSOL CONCENTRATION y

IN CONTAINMhNT

}jo ATMOSPHERE Z

8 AEROSOL RELEASED O

OVER A PERIOD OF:

<6 5

Z 15 MINUTES 30 MINUTES 4

Z 60 MINUTES AEROSOL MASS O

RELEASE - 1,000Kg U

CONTAINMENT VOLUME -

a O

54,000m 3 (1.9 x10 6 FT 3) 0 2

E<

\\

1 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 TIME AFTER POSTULATED BREAK (HOURS) 82-;8,069

COMPARISON OF SOURCE TERMS NRQ SANDIA SWEC R A DIO ACTIV E REACTOR SITING PROPOSED M ATERI A L SAFETY STUDY INTERIM GROUP STUDY REL.

NUREG/

SOURCE C AT. P.WR-2 CR-2239 TERM NOBLE GASES LXe&Kr')

90 100 100 RADIOIODINES 70 45 1

CESIUM-RUBIDIUM 50 67 1

TELLURIUM-ANTIMONY 30 64 1

BARIUM-STRONTIUM 6

7 1

l RUTHENIUM 2

5 1

i LANTHANUM 0.4 0.9 0.4 N O T E: ALL N U M B ER 5 1R E :i; ~ 5 *. 10- E 5 C : CORE INVENTORY POSTULATED TO BE AVAILABLE FOR RELEASE TO T H E E N V ! R C 's v i'. "

l 1

l MEAN AND MAXIMUM REPORTED CONSEQUENCES SANDIA SITING STUDY FOR INDIAN POINT SITE l

MEAN MAXIMUM REPORTED POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES CONSEQUENCES i

l HEALTH WITH A PROBABILITY WITH ASSOCIATED j

OF AN SST1 RELEASE PROBABILITY EFFECTS OF 1X10-s PER PER REACTOR YEAR l

i l

REACTOR YEAR I

I EARLY l

FATALITIES 830 50,000 (lx10-8)

'l EARLY INJURIES 3,600 100,000 (3x10-8) l LATENT CANCER FATALITIES 8,100 30,000 (1x10-8)

NOTE: DATA INCLUDE EVACUATION EFFECTS l

l l

82-28,618 g

~

SENSITIVITY OF MEAN CONSEQUENCES SANDIA SITING STUDY FOR INDIAN POINT SqTE POTENTIAL HEALTH SST1 10% SST 1 1% SST 1 EFFECTS 4

EARLY

~

i FATALITIES 830 8.3 0.2 i

LATENT CANCER FATALITIES 8,100 2,592 405 j

NOTES: (1) DATA INCLUDE EVACUATION EFFECTS i

(2) NOBLE GAS PORTION OF SOURCE TERM NOT REDUCED BY SANDIA (3) PROBABILITY OF SST) RELEASE IS 1x10-5 PER REACTOR YEAR l

1

82 -28,617 1

l RE. NUREG/CR-2723

" ESTIMATES OF THE FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR

~

POWER REACTOR ACCIDENTS" SOURCE: D AVID R STRIP, S ANDI A N ATION AL L ABOR ATORIES. SEPTEMBER 1982 83-30,075

I.

RANGE OF DISCOUNTED VALUE OF COSTS-CONDITIONAL ON SST1 RELEASE - RE. NUREG/CR-272@

(UNITS-$ BILLIONS-1982)

OFFSITE OFFSITE PLANT HEALTH PROPERTY I COSTS OSTS COSTS COSTS BIG ROCK POINT 0.07 0.64 12.5 13.2 (LOWEST;i i

INDIAN POINT 3 32.1 189 101 322 l

(HIGHEST;l PALO VERDE 1 1.23 15.9 73.1 90.3 (AVERAGE;I i

1 l

83-29,109

7

l I

~

SENSITIVITY OF MEAN CONSEQUENCES i

TO SOURCE TERM REDUCTIONS l

INDIAN PT. SITE DATA FROM SANDIA l

SITING STUDY (NUREG/CR-2239)

(RELATIVE UNITS)

I j

SOURCE EARLY TERM FATALITIES i

FATALITIES DAMAGE SSTl 100 100 100 i

l 50% OF SST 1*

30 74 62 l

10% OF SST 1*

1 32 11 5% OF SST 1*

0.2 19 5

)

1% OF SST 1*

0.03 5

0.71 i

• 5OURCE TERM REDUCED FOR ALL ISOIOPES EXCEPT NOBLE GASES I

I 83- %,073

EXPECTED RESULTS FROM "BEST ESTIMATE" ANALYSI

.OF CORE MELT DOWN AT ANY U.S. POWER REACTOR SITE l

l e WITH EARLY RELEASE FROM CONTAINMENT NO EARLY FATALITIES FEW LATENT FATALITIES e WITH NO EARLY RELEASE FROM CONTAINMENT NO EARLY FATALITIES NO LATENT FATALITIES I

l

SCHEDULE FOR SEQUENCE OF DRAFT REPORTS CONTAINING BEST-ESTIM ATE SOURCE TERMS 1

LARGE DRY CONTAINMENT PWR llSURRY) 1 JANUARY 1983);

MARK I(PEACH BOTTOM? AND MARK 111 [ GRAND GULF)

BWRs (APRIL 1983?; AND ICE CONDENSER PLANT (SEQUOYAH) i;MAY 1983?

RE: DIRCKS MEMOR ANDUM DATED DEC.1/ 1982 83-29047

i I

\\

1 i

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE' i

i

)

RADIOLOGICAL j

CONSEQUENCES OF POSTULATED REACTOR ACCIDENTS 510NE & WEBSTER ENGINEERING CORPORATION t

L 62 / 6, a 4 *i I

i

~

i AN ASSESSMENT OF THE!

i i

RADIOLOGICAL l

CONSEQUENCES OF POSTULATED i

1 i

i REACTOR ACCIDENTS i

1 i

l STONE & WEBSTER ENGINEERING CORPORATION l

i s.-,,. 4s l

C f

h/*

J

=

For:

The Comissioners From:

William J. Dircks, Executive Director for Operations

Subject:

UPDATE ON ACCIDENT SOURCE TERM REASSESSMENT

Purpose:

To inform the Commissioners of the current status of the staff's efforts to ' reevaluate accident source terms.

~

Category:

This,is an information paper.

Background:

In 1983 the Accident Source Term Program Office was fonned in the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research to focus and direct s

the staff's efforts to reassess the basic. assumptions and the methodology for quantitative assessment of the releases of radionuclides.resulting from core damage accidents.

(SECY-83-219). The clear need for thorough and extensive pe'er review resulted in a grant to the American Physical Society (APS) for a formal, broad-based review of the underlying scien-tific bases, in addition to the expert peer review of models and calculations, as described in SECY-83-219A. An informal status report was provided in my memorandum of June 19, 1984. A further status report, including schedule for completion and publication of the staff efforts was presented in SECY-84-395 (October 12, 1984). This paper provides an update of the schedule for this work to take into account the revised schedule for the completion of the APS review and to describe the staff's near term plans for regulatory use of the new source term infdrmation.

Contact:

e Melvin Silberberg, ASTPO, RES

. Telephone # 427-4737 s

9

y, s.

y 2

N.

Discussion:

_ Status of the Peer Review

~

The independent review of the scientific basis of source term u

i estimation by the American Physical Society (APS) Study Group is nearing completion. A report describing the findings of the Study Group was submitted in late December 1984 to the APS Executive Council and a 4-person Review Comittee, appointed by

~

the Executive Council.

The Review Comittee will report to the Executive Council on January 20, 1985. Assuming only minor changes in the report, the Chairperson of the Study Group, Professor Richard Wilson of Harvard University is scheduled to brief the Comission on {ehtuary 21, 1985.

Status of Related Efforts by Other Organizations The work of the ANS Special Comittee on Source Terms was completed in November 1984 with the publication of a final report and a Comission briefing held on November 13, 1984.

The Industry Degraded Core Rulemaking (IDCOR) Program, sponsored by the Atomic Industrial Forum, recently completed a 4-year study of nuclear poker plant risks, and has sublished a final k*

technical report in December 1964. The IDC01 Policy Group nas

' h 7

~

approved continuation of their program in an Implementation /

d.

(SourceTe~rmphasethrough1985. The objectives and milestones 1 of this next phase were presented at an NRC-IDCOR manaaement

/

1 meeting on Decembe'r 17. 1984. Briefly, the goal of the next ypnase of the IDCOR Program is to effect regulatory closure and Treform in the areas of severe accident, source tenns and

emergency planning.

The milestones ~for NRC-IDCOR interaction in 1985 proposed by IDCOR are:

x

~

February 19, 1985 - IDCOR-NRC discuss outstanding

.-9

~

technical issues 4

March 19, 1985

- IDCOR-NRC discuss generic apolicability orocess_

April 1985

- IDCOR NRC agree on process June 1985

- NRC staff issues letter on generic applicability and schedule for implementation O

6 r

.--%+m--e.--

ve,*-.ee-*=

.: t 3

This schedule is probably too optimistic and the staff may be resource limited. We intend to iterate with IDCOR during the February 19 meeting.

Status of Containment Failure Mode Review In WASH-1400 the containment failure mode,<, resulting from steam explosion was assigned a conditional probability of 10-g,

given a core melt accident.

In 1981 a review (NUREG-0850) of the c< failure mode conducted in a support of the Indian Point Hearings concluded that on the basis of additional information ava{1able since WASH-1400, the probability was on the order of 10. With this background at hand, the Containment Loads Workina Gr lou (formed in 1983 in support of the source term

~

reassessmenteffort)decidednottoconsidersteamexplosion loads within the scope of its effort.

A recent report published by Sandia (Sumer 1984) entitled "An Uncertainty Study of PWR Steam Explosions," NUREG/CR-3369 raised

. sufficient questions to warrant another review of the subject.

A Steam Explosion Review Group (SERG) comprised of U.S. and foreign experts was formed and a meeting was held on November 27 and 28.-1984 to address:

(1)thebestestimateprobabilit containment failure resulting from a steam explosion, (2) y of the findings in NUREG/CR-3369, and the proposed research in this area.

The estimates of containment reported by the SERG ranged from 10~ failure grobability to 10.

A sumary

' report on the results and conclusions from the SERG meeting is i

in preparation by the SERG Chairperson and is expected to be issued in early January 1985.

NStatus of Staff's Assessment The staff's assessment and conclusions concerning the contractors' products will be contained in a NUREG report (NUREG-0956).

T_he primary ourpose of NUREG-0956 will be to assess the extensive body of new information with' respect to its validity and potential applicability to the regulatory process, particularly in view of uncertainties still associated with the BMI-2104 methodology.

Representative calculations for a numbe_r of accident sequences for different reactor type.s and contain-

_ments will oe sumarized and reviewed with rest.egt to the potential impact of the results on the estimates of the_ risks associated with severe reactor accidents. -

This report (NUREG-0956), currently in preparation, will take into account the findings of the APS Study Group Report, as well

~.4 5

1 hl

• l q

k y[of l

\\7 as similar or related efforts by the IDCOR Program and the ANS.

l 4,pib(r):

f The major milestones for its completion and publication are

[

gp

{showninTable1.

Please note that this proposed schedule includes a review by the E

ACRS, followed by a presentation to the Comission on or about

"~

May 15, 1985, prior to publication for public coment.

Regulatory Use of New Source Term Information The source term technology report (NUREG 0956) will be accompanied by a staff paper which will assess for the Comission the regulatory significance of the revised source term technology for each of the principal areas of reactor

' regulation. The staff will identify those parts of the regulations and related standards where changes to reflect new g=

i s_ource term knowledge appear to be warrantea.

This paper.wfll

,not_actua t iy propose ru se cnances (excepT. ror graded emergelicf U

h anLdiscuss possible rulemaking activities.TET onse noted below) or Comis ff One of those P rulemaking activities, revisions to the reactor emergency preparedness regulation (10 CFR Part 50.47, etc.) began in 1983, but,'as I informed you in my memorandum of June 19, 1984, was 3

held in abeyance to await the revised source term information.

With that new source term information now becoming available, i

it appears appropr.iate to proceed in parallel with the preparation of NUREG-0956 to develop a revised emergency preparedness rule based on changes in the original work.

If the report of the APS Study Group warrants such an action, the g

revised emergency preparedness rule will be brought forward I

with NUREG-0956 for Comission action.

N w

William J. Dircks

)

Executive Director for Operations

)!

Enclosure:

Table 1 f

$bff f My

&^0 h

W Tw n.w srs % (w [sg)J~ %

R n.

. 24g% 9 ~f a

m caw usw, p f 1)

, OL$r:6pisen acd i A ;(% *"'["i' & }

,o coc (a mn...)

E 4

g i

=

1

y_

---~

~;7 5

l Table 1 Major Milestones for Comple' tion and Publication of HUREG-0956 Report of APS Study Group to Comnission February 21, 1985 CompletionofDraftNUREG-0956(including April 9, 1985 incorporation of coments and amendments as a result of APS report)

Transmittal to ACRS for review April 15, 1985 Comission Paper prepared May 3, 1985 Comission Meeting, on or about May 15, 1985 Publication of Draft NUREG-0956 for May 24, 1985 Public Coment 60-Day Coment Period Complete July 23 1985

-4 In' corporation of Comnents a'pf Ready August loos for Final Publication l

- _ _ _ _. - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _