ML092720530
| ML092720530 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Palo Verde  |
| Issue date: | 07/24/2009 |
| From: | Brittle S Don't Waste Arizona |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| REGNER, L M, DLR/RPB2, 415-1906 | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML092720524 | List: |
| References | |
| Download: ML092720530 (2) | |
Text
Solar Photovoltaic Costs for Life of System Spreadsheet by Russell Lowes, www.SafeEnergyAnalyst.org, 3/5/09 DRAFT Energy Production Assumptions Utility Residential Residential Residential Industrial Based on Based on Construction Lower Cost Cost Given Based on Based on Industrial w/
By Solon Typical 50% rebate Higher 12%
at 2/12 Construction from Gov't Charge Tour Cost Locally & Utilities Rate 1
1 1
1 kilowatt 8766 8766 8766 8766 hours0.101 days <br />2.435 hours <br />0.0145 weeks <br />0.00334 months <br /> per year 30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0% capacity factor (percentage of maximum nameplate rating realized in kilowatt-hours) 25 25 25 25 Lifespan; years of production of electricity 65745 65745 65745 65745 Subtotal 10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0% average degradation over 25 year lifespan, based on Solon guarantee of 59170.5 59170.5 59170.5 59170.5 kilowatt-hours production for lifespan Cost Assumptions
$4,000.00
$12,000.00
$6,000.00
$4,000.00 Dollars per kilowatt of e capacity, A/C
$1,000.00
$1,000.00
$1,000.00
$1,000.00 Repairs and Maintenance over 25 year lifespan (GENERAL ESTIMATE)
$5,000.00
$13,000.00
$7,000.00
$5,000.00 Total investment over lifespan Simple cost per Kilowatt-hour, without finance charges
$0.085
$0.220
$0.118
$0.085 dollars per kilowatt-hour To calculate the finance charges:
$4,000.00
$12,000.00
$6,000.00
$4,000.00 Capital investment, construction cost 25 25 25 25 Years of loan 8.25%
8.25%
8.25%
12.00% Interest rate of loan / FIXED CHARGE RATE FOR INDUSTRIAL OPTION
$386.52
$1,159.56
$579.78
$480.00 Mortgage payment for loan per year (hand-entered from loan amortization program for Residential, Calc'd for Industrial)
$9,663.00
$28,989.00
$14,494.50
$12,000.00 Total repayment for loan over lifespan (line above times lifespan years)
Total lifespan costs with mortgage payments
$9,663.00
$28,989.00
$14,494.50
$12,000.00 Capital costs (mortgage) over lifespan
$5,000.00
$5,000.00
$5,000.00
$5,000.00 Repairs and maintenance over lifespan
$14,663.00
$33,989.00
$19,494.50
$17,000.00 Total cost over lifespan
$0.25
$0.57
$0.33
$0.29 Final cost per kilowatt-hour with interest
$0.06 For Utilities, add 6 cents for Transmission and Distribution
$0.35 End cost for average retail price.
Note that profit for investors, insurance & property taxes are included in the 12% levelized fixed charge rate, in the Industrial example. 12% is used by Standard and Poor's for utilities (non-nuclear).
Other factors:
For residential non-utility examples, insurance and property costs are not included.
The maintenance costs need to be better grounded in experience, for all examples.
Deterioration Rate of Solar PV at 0.5% per year 1
1 Initial kilowatt of capacity 2
0.995 3
0.990025 4
0.985075 5
0.98015 6
0.975249 7
0.970373 8
0.965521 9
0.960693 10 0.95589 11 0.95111 12 0.946355 13 0.941623 14 0.936915 15 0.93223 16 0.927569 17 0.922931 18 0.918316 19 0.913725 20 0.909156 21 0.90461 22 0.900087 23 0.895587 24 0.891109 25 0.886654 0.942238 Average delivery of electricity per initial kilowatt of capacity
Electricity Costs for Pima County Residents Now and in the Future Spreadsheet by Russell Lowes, www.SafeEnergyAnalyst.org, 3/17/09 DRAFT Reduction In Typical Electricity With Residential Different Mix of Prior Column Consumption Consumption over KWH/Mo KWH/Mo 25 years 750 750 225000 Current consumption for a typical residence 0.105 0.105 Cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity 78.75 78.75 TOTAL ROUGH CURRENT COST 0.00%
25.00%
Asssumed % reduction in consumption of KWH 750 563 168,750 New consumption level after energy efficiency program 0
188 56,250 Energy saved per month in KWH Projected Blend of Energy in %
0.00%
10.00%
New Solar PV 70.00%
50.00%
Old Coal 30.00%
25.00%
Old natural gas plants 0.00%
5.00%
New natural gas plants 0.00%
0.00%
New Nuclear 0.00%
10.00%
Wind 0.00%
0.00%
Hydro 100.00%
100.00%
Energy efficiency with new mix of solar/coal/natural gas Cost for Electricity for Each Source 13.50 4,050.00 New Solar PV 52.50 28.13 8,437.50 Old Coal 26.25 16.41 4,922.44 Old natural gas plants 4.22 1,265.63 New natural gas plants New Nuclear 8.44 2,531.25 Wind Hydro 0.03 0.03 0.03 Energy efficiency cost per KWH 5.63 1,687.50 Energy efficiency cost per month 78.75 67.88 20,363.06 Total new cost of electricity (0.00) 10.87 3,261.94 Savings/total bill 0.0%
1.4%
1.4% Savings as % of original bill Savings in Total CO2:
Average CO2 per Kilowatt-Hour Savings per KWH CO2:
Cost per Kilowatt-Hour Resulting KWH Used
$0.240
$0.240 New Solar PV
$0.100
$0.100 Old Coal
$0.117
$0.117 Old natural gas plants
$0.150
$0.150 New natural gas plants
$0.240
$0.240 New Nuclear
$0.150
$0.150 Wind
$0.100
$0.100 Old Hydro
$0.035
$0.035 Energy Efficiency KWH Consumption breakdown by source 0
56 16,875 New Solar PV 525 281 84,375 Old Coal 225 141 42,188 Old natural gas plants 0
28 8,438 New natural gas plants 0
0 New Nuclear 0
56 Wind 0
0 Hydro 750 563 168,750 Total KWH/Mo 0.105 0.121 Total Cost Per KWH
...See Output...
Below Initial New Mix CO2 CO2 Output Output grams/KWH Output 0
1,800 504,000 270,000 112,500 70,313 0
12,459 0
0 0
506 0
0 616,500 354,572 42%
822 630 23%
Initial New Mix CO2 CO2 Output Output grams/KWH Output
32 32 960 960 500 500 443 443 400 400 9
9 10 10 5
5
Cost for a Nuclear Reactor and Cost Per Person for Nuclear Energy, Capital Portion Only A Worksheet by Russell J. Lowes, updated 3/5/09 I have seen nuclear industry estimates have run from $1,000-2,000 per kilowatt of installed electrical capacity to $4,000, over the 2000-2006 period. When 2006 arrived, cost estimates increased dramatically.
Recently, some spokespersons for the industry have begun to face reality and have increased their projections dramatically, two estimates as high as $8,200 and $10,000 per kilowatt.
However, reactors in the late 1980s were finishing at just over $3000, in 1980s dollars.
(See Brice Smith, Insurmountable Risks: The Dangers of Using Nuclear Power to Combat Global Climate Change at www.ieer.org/)
This $3000 does not count all the reactors that were canceled due to cost overruns, so this figure is low. Running a $3000 price out from 1988 to 2008 with simple inflation yields (at the http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl) $5500, rounded to the nearest $100.
This $5500 figure is low due to construction costs outpacing general inflation, particularly with the price of copper, steel and cement going up with increased world demand.
On top of the $5500 in 2008, projecting out to 2020 as a completion year for a reactor at a 4% annual cost escalation rate yields $8500.
However, more robust reactor designs with two decades worth of lessons of safety improvements has its costs. The industry is going to be required to build structures capable of withstanding large jet impacts, per post-911 rules. This will substantially increase the cost of building nukes.
Additionally, "passive" cooling systems will require substantial cost increases, as massive reservoirs will be built to hold water for ECCS backup.
What will the nuclear program cost per person in the U.S. if the industry builds 1000 reactors, each averaging 1000 megawatts, in this nation?
The following table assumes that the 100 reactors are built the same year, and run for 30 or 40 years.
However, no reactor has run for this long of a period at an average 85% capacity factor, so this 40-year estimate is giving the nuclear industry the benefit of the doubt.
1,350 average size reactor, megawatts
$9,000 average cost per kilowatt of electrical capacity installed (for 2020 completion)
$12,150,000,000 cost per plant 100 number of plants under the Bush and McCain plans
$1,215,000,000,000 total construction cost 14.0% levelized fixed charge rate for 30 year payback schedule
$170,100,000,000 annual rate paid per year
$5,103,000,000,000 total capital payback over 30 years 350,000,000 people in the U.S. on average over the 30-year payback peroiod Keystone Report/Nuclear 486 costs per person per year for loan payback Power Joint Fact-Finding Low Cost High Cost If the above scenario is realized, what will the cost of nuclear power be per kilowatt-hour, for just the capital portion?
40Yr90%
30Yr75%
$9,000 Cost per kWe installed
$2,950
$2,950 14.0% Capital payback per year/Fixed Charge Rate 12.3%
13.8%
$1,260 Annual payback per KW, first 30 years
$363
$408 30 Reactor Life in years 40 30
30 Capital Payback Period 30 30 10,887 12,229
$37,800 Capital payback over 30 years Capital Payback per kW installed
$14,516
$12,229 85.0% Capacity factor 90.0%
75.0%
223,533 kWhe generated per kWe installed, for years in Reactor Life 315,576 197,235 0.1691
$/kWhe 0.046 0.062 compared with the calculations on the left:
0.127 0.169 40 Extended 40-year reactor life in years 298,044 kWhe generated per kWe installed 0.1268 Capital cost/kWhe If the reactors ran at the fanatasy industry figure of $2000 per kWhe, lasted 40 years and had a 85% capacity factor:
280 Annual Payback per KW, first 30 years
$8,400 Capital payback over Reactor Life per kilowatt installed 0.0376 Capital cost/kWhe Fuel, and Operation and Maintenance Costs are Projected Differently by the Following So From the Keystone Report/"Nuclear Power Joint Fact-Finding," page 42.
0.015 Fuel 0.023 Fixed Operating and Maintenance Cost 0.005 Variable O&M 0.0430 Total Fuel and O&M 0.1698 Total All Costs/kWhe From IEER January 2008 Science for Democratic Action newsletter:
0.0430 per kilowatt-hour, average projection by the Keystone Report, 2007 $
0.0230 PacifiCorp, a Western states utility company 2007 $
From Report submitted to the California Public Utilities Commission, Energy & Environmental Economics, Inc.
www.ethree.com/cpuc_ghg_model.html Fixed O&M is estimated at $83/kW-yr, this would be 0.0111 Fixed O&M 0.0012 Variable O&M Fuel is listed as $.78/MMBtu, with Heat Rate @10,400 btu/kwh 0.7800
/MMBtu (million btu) 293 kilowatts = 1 MMBtu At 3413 btu/kWh 1MMBtu 0.0027 Cost of fuel 0.0150 Cost of Fuel and O&M From Standard & Poor's "Which Power Generation Technologies Will Take the Lead In Response to Carbon Controls," May 11, 2007 0.0134 per kW/yr
$/kWhe @ 85% Capacity factor
- The Keystone report is considered the most accurate and up-to-date for future reactors, and will be used in the cost of calculating nuclear energy. It should be noted that there is a predicted shortage of uranium for fueling reactors, starting around 2018, with resource depletion problems getting worse over the subsequent years. Keystone does not take into account the more dire projections.
Keystone was an interdisciplinary process involving teams of researchers and writers from the nuclear industry, NGOs, etc.
Nuclear and Other Energy Options Cost Recap Projected Nuclear Costs per Kilowatt-Hour of Electricity Delivered 0.1268 Capital costs 0.0150 Fuel Costs 0.0230 Fixed Operation and Maintenance 0.0050 Variable Operation and Maintenance 0.1698 Total Generating Cost for Nuclear Electricity Per Kilowatt-Hour 0.0700 Transmission and Distribution 0.2398 Total Cost of Electricity for Delivered Nuclear Electricity 0.1000 Current Coal Technology Electricity Generation Cost 0.0700 Transmission and Distribution 0.1700 Total Cost of Electricity for Delivered Coal Electricity 0.0800 Current Natural Gas Technology Electricity Generation Cost 0.0700 Transmission and Distribution 0.1500 Total Cost of Electricity for Delivered Gas Electricity 0.1200 Solar Thermal Electricity Generation Cost 0.0700 Transmission and Distribution 0.1900 Total Cost of Electricity for Delivered Solar Thermal Electricity
$ 0.15-0.40 Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation, including On-Site T&D 0.0800 Wind Generation Cost of Electricity 0.0700 Transmission and Distribution 0.1500 Total Cost of Electricity for Delivered Wind Electricity 0.0350 Cost of Energy Efficiency Per Kilowatt-Hour Saved, if Implemented On Large Scale
ources
KWH/Household for nukes and coal 2
2 capacity factor for nukes and coal 75 75 capacity factor for wind and PV 35 30 Renewable CF fraction of Nuke/Coal CF 0.466667 0.4 KWH/Household for wind and PV solar 4.285714 5
Households per kilowatt of nukes & coal 0.5 0.5 Households per kilowatt of wind & solar 0.233333 0.2
Decommissioning and Waste Cost of Surveillance System Over One Million and Ten Thousand Years The total number of megawatt-hours put out by a 1000 1000-MW nuclear plants over 40 years at 85% capacity factor 1000 number of reactors 1000 Megawatts of electricity per reactor, Design Electrical Rating 40 Number of years 8766 Hours per year 85.0% Capacity Factor/Load Factor 298,044,000,000 Megawatt-hours of electricity for reactors 298,044,000,000,000 Kilowatt-hours of electricity for reactors The federal court system has ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency can no longer use 10,000 years as a guideline for nuclear waste planning - they must now use 1 million years.
See: U.S. News & World Report, "Mired in Yucca Muck, Nuclear power is trendy again, but what about the waste?" by Bret Schulte, at http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061022/30nukes.htm Under the old 10,000 year guidline, the amount of kilowatt-hours the plants produce divided by 10,000 would equal what?
298,044,000,000,000 Kilowatt-hours of electricity for reactors 10,000 years of waste management 29,804,400,000 Kilowatt-hours of electricity for waste management.
30.0% Reduced by the 30%, for example of energy input at the front end:
mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, re-conversion, fabrication, building the plant, running the plant, short-term waste storeage 30.0% Reduced by say another 30%, with the goal of having a 40% net energy gain.
11,921,760,000 Hours per year to devote to waste management.
If the new 1,000,000 year guideline is used, the amount of kilowatt-hours for waste storeage per year:
298,044,000,000,000 Kilowatt-hours of electricity for waste management.
1,000,000 years of waste management 298,044,000 Kilowatt-hours of electricity for waste management.
30.0% Reduced by the 30%, for example of energy input at the front end:
mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, re-conversion, fabrication, building the plant, running the plant, short-term waste storeage 30.0% Reduced by say another 30%, with the goal of having a 40% net energy gain.
119,217,600 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
How does this waste cost compare to other industrial management processes?
If the waste is kept at the reactor sites, as may be the case in the future, then there will be 104 reactor sites (if you count each reactor as a site - many reactors are at multiple-reactor sites).
10,000-Year Plan:
11,921,760,000 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
1,000 reactors 11,921,760 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
Million-Year Plan:
119,217,600 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
1,000 reactors 119,218 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
What would this value be in today's dollars at, for example, 10 cents per kWhe?
10,000-Year Plan:
11,921,760 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
$0.10
$1,192,176 Electricty cost per year in today's dollars.
Million-Year Plan:
119,218 Kilowatt-hours per year to devote to waste management.
$0.10
$11,922 Electricty cost per year in today's dollars.