ML23346A066

Maccs Consequence Analyses Code Development Plan 2024 2028, Presentation by Salman Haq at Asian Melcor/Maccs User'S Group Meeting, AMUG-2023, Seoul, Republic of Korea

ML23346A066
Person / Time
Issue date:	12/12/2023
From:	Salman Haq NRC/RES/DSA
To:
Haq S
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Download: ML23346A066 (11)

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MACCS Consequence Analyses Code Development Plan 2024-2028 2023 Asian MELCOR/MACCS Users Group Meeting Salman Haq, Ph.D., P.E.

PM MACCS Code Development and Applications Accident Analysis Branch Division of Systems Analysis NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 1

MACCS Consequence Analyses Code Risk and Source Term Uncertainty & Radionuclide Quantifications Release Regulatory Atmospheric Framework & Transport &

Rulemaking Dispersion MACCS Consequence Emergency Quantification Preparedness

& Reporting & Protective MACCS is used for Rulemaking, Licensing Reactors, and Actions Regulatory Research include regulatory and cost-benefit analyses, environmental reports and impact statements, plant-specific evaluations of severe accident mitigation Economics Dosimetry &

alternatives, U.S. Department of Energy safety analyses, Consequences Health Effects probabilistic risk assessments, and other research studies.

2

NRC/RES Code Investment Plan Challenges:

• Cost of code development are high

• Resources are limited We need more rigorous code investment planning driven by technology and Regulatory and Code Users Need.

NRC Office of Regulatory Research (RES) Computer code 7 investment plan provide guidance and prioritization [2022]. 4

• MACCS-UI expected 2024 Replacing WinMACCS obsolesce (VB and database)

• MACCS Fortran 2025-27 31 Modernization Execution enhancement Pre and post processor 3

Applications Driven MACCS Development

• Prior to 2020

• State of the Art Consequence Analyses

• MACCS-HYSPLIT ATD model

• 2020 - 2024

• NRC Non-Light Water Reactor Vision and Strategy

• MACCS Documentation (Theory manual, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses , Verification Report )

• MACCS-UI (Code Modernization by Replacing VB and Database)

• 2024-2028

• Continue/Complete Non-LWR Vision and Strategy

• Focus on Knowledge Management and Knowledge Sharing

• Update Fortran and Issue MACCS V5.0 (Modernization)

• Execution efficiency

• Pre and Post processors

• Enhanced Graphics 4

Application driven MACCS Development Advanced Reactors, Non-LWR & SMRs NRC Non-Light Water Reactor Vision and Strategy, Volume 3 CA1: Near-Field Transport CA2: Radionuclide Screening CA3: Radionuclide Size, Shape, and Chemical Form and Impact on Atmospheric Transport and Dosimetry CA4: Tritium Modeling

• CA5: Radionuclide Evolution in the Atmosphere

• CA6: Decontamination Modeling

• CA7: Chemical Hazards 1-Assessment of MACCS Capabilities Report 2-Compare with State of Practice Codes Report 3-updates to MACCS code Required? 5

MACCS Consequence Analysis Code Published Reports 2020-2023 96

• Comparison of Tritium Dose Calculations from MACCS, UFOTRI, and ETMOD

[ADAMS Accession No. ML23292A364]

• Reviewing MACCS Capabilities for Modeling Variable Physiochemical Forms

[ML22270A049]

• Reviewing MACCS Capabilities for Assessing Tritium Releases to the Environment

[ML22270A054]

• MACCS Consequence Analysis Demonstration Calculations for an Example Heat Pipe Reactor Source Term [ML23045A044] MACCS VERIFICATION REPORT Revision 2

• Quantitative Assessment for Advanced Reactor Radioisotope Screening Utilizing a Prepared for Heat Pipe Reactor Inventory [ML22270A046] U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contract 31310018D0002

• Implementation of Additional Models into the MACCS Code for Nearfield Task Order No. 31310020F0081 Consequence Analysis [ML21257A120] Prepared by

• MACCS Verification Report Revision 1 [ML22347A021], Revision 2 [TBD Dec 2023] Osvaldo Pensado

• Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS (NUREG/CR-7270]

Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses San Antonio, Texas

• MACCS Theory Manual [SAND2021-11535] Dec?? 2023

• MACCS User Guide-Version 4.0 [SAND2021-8998]

• Assessment of the MACCS Code Applicability for Nearfield Consequence Analysis

[SAND2020-2609] 6

CA 3&5 Radionuclide Chemical Form and Evolution in Atmosphere 2024-2025

• Features, Events and Processes Impacting Physiochemical Variability in Consequence Modelling - In Progress, Mariah Smith, SNL

• Ascertain the need to add new features in MACCS to better track chemical transformation during phases of consequence analyses

• Dose Conversion Factors (DCF)

• improving documentation of physical and chemical forms assumed for developing Dose Conversion file for MACCS

• examining sensitivity of FGR13 Dose Conversions to alternate chemical forms

• State of Practice Review of Ingestion and COMIDA food chain modeling - Any interest in for international collaborations?

7

CA 5 Radionuclide Evolution in the Atmosphere Work in Progress at Sandia expected to complete in 2024-25 Relevant Environmental Transformation Processes

• Chemical Reactions

• Oxidation

• Agglomeration

• Hygroscopicity Ref: DOI:10.2495/AIR150071 Current MACCS Capabilities

• Radionuclide Decay and Ingrowth

• Dry Deposition

• Wet Deposition Review/Quantification of Environmental Transformation Models for Nuclear plant releases (State of Practice Codes)

• HYSPLIT

• CMAQ

• WRF-CHEM

• SORAMI 8

MACCS Application Other Emerging Areas

• Environmental Justice Studies 2024-25

• The Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool helps federal agencies identify disadvantaged communities that are overburdened by pollution and underinvestment. (How to Leverage new Census data in SecPop?)

• Future Focus Research Project 2023-24

• Use of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to support severe accident consequence analysis at locations without onsite meteorological data.

(When site specific high QA meteorological data is not readily available)

• Radionuclides Accident Consequence Analyses for Space launch

• US is developing space nuclear systems where such systems safely enable or enhance space exploration or operational capabilities [NSPM-20].

9

MACCS Fortran Execution Efficiency 2025-2028

• MACCS Execution

• Cloud Computing

• Linux version - Cloud and cluster processing

• High Performance and cluster computing in progress

• Challenges

• Effective use of multiprocessor hardware (parallel computing)

• Weather trials de-coupling

• Source Term and Number of Plume Segment Optimization

• Number of Cohorts, number of regions/radials Optimization

• Social Economic and Population Regions modeling

• Improve graphic reporting

• Pre & Post Processors

• Standard tables and graphs used in licensing reactors 10

MACCS consequence analyses Code Contact Information Further Information https://maccs.sandia.gov/

PM MACCS Code Development and Applications, NRC/RES/DSA/AAB Salman Haq Nazila Tehrani Code Distribution AJ Nosek Branch Chief NRC/RES/DSA/AAB Luis Betancourt 11