Text

CFR 50, Appendix E, Evacuation Time Estimate
	ML22258A300
Person / Time
Site:	Surry
Issue date:	09/14/2022
From:	Mladen F; Dominion Energy Virginia, Virginia Electric & Power Co (VEPCO)
To:	; Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	22-264
	Download: ML22258A300 (522)
	v • d • e

VIRGINIA ELECTRIC AND POWER COMPANY RICHMOND, VIRGINIA 23261 September 14, 2022 U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Serial No.: 22-264 Attention: Document Control Desk NRA/ENC: RO Washington, DC 20555-0001 Docket Nos.: 50-280/281 License Nos.: DPR-32/37 VIRGINIA ELECTRIC AND POWER COMPANY (DOMINION ENERGY VIRGINIA)

SURRY POWER STATION UNITS 1 AND 2 10 CFR 50, APPENDIX E, EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE Pursuant to 10 CFR 50, Appendix E, Section IV.4, Virginia Electric and Power Company (Dominion Energy Virginia) submits the enclosed evacuation time estimate (ETE) study for Surry Power Station (SPS) Units 1 and 2.

The enclosed SPS ETE study was developed using the 2020 decennial census data from the U. S. Census Bureau and provides the methods used to derive, for planning purposes, the time for public evacuation. The study provides an important part of the bases for development of protective action recommendations in coordination with the i:ipplicable offsite state/local emergency response agencies.

If you have any questions or require additional information, please contact Ms. Erica N.

Combs at (804) 273-3386.

Sincerely,

)_:Jf~... ~ ~\.~,"

Fred Mladen Site Vice President - Surry Power Station Dominion Energy Virginia Commitments made in this letter: None

Enclosure:

Surry Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study

Serial No.: 22-264 Docket Nos.: 50-280/281 Page 2 of 2 cc: Regional Administrator, Region II U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Marquis One Tower 245 Peachtree Center Avenue, NE, Suite 1200 Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1257 Mr. L. John Klos NRC Senior Project Manager- Surry Power Station U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Mail Stop 09 E-3 One White Flint North 11555 Rockville Pike Rockville, Maryland 20852-2738 NRC Senior Resident Inspector Surry Power Station

Serial No.: 22-264 Docket Nos.: 50-280/281 ENCLOSURE Surry Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study SURRY POWER STATION UNITS 1 AND 2 VIRGINIA ELECTRIC AND POWER COMPANY (DOMINION ENERGY VIRGINIA)

ENGINEERING, P.C.

Surry Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates Charlel*

City County I

aaremont I Surry County

/

/ James River

_ Legend Gl SPS PAZ O..te:7/8/1011 C.Opyri~ht: ESRI ~U a nd Maps 2020

'--:, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings KLDEn2ineerine,Domiinion 2.5 Smithfield Work performed for Dominion, by:

KLD Engineering, P.C.

1601 Veterans Memorial Highway, Suite 340 Islandia, NY 11749 E-mail: kweinisch@kldcompanies.com September 5, 2022 Final Report, Rev. 0 KLDTR-1273

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

................................................................................. .. ........................ ....................... 1 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................... .................................. ........................................................... 1-1 1.1 Overview of the ETE Process ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 The Surry Power Station Location .............................................................................................. 1-3 1.3 Preliminary Activities ................................................................................................................. 1-3 1.4 Comparison with Prior ETE Study .............................................................................................. 1-6 2 STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Data Estimates Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Methodological Assumptions .................................................................................................... 2-1 2.3 Study Assumptions on Mobilization Times ................................................................................ 2-3 2.4 Transit Dependent Assumptions ................................................................................................ 2-3 2.5 Traffic and Access Control Assumptions .................................................................................... 2-5 2.6 Scenarios and Regions ............................................................................................................... 2-6 3 DEMAND ESTIMATION ....................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Permanent Residents ..................................... ............................................................................ 3-2 3.1.1 The College of William and Mary ........................... ...... ................ .................................... .. 3-2 3.1.2 Military Installations .... .. ................................. .... ............. ....................... .. .. ........ ............... 3-3 3.2 Shadow Population .................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 Transient Population .................................................................................................................. 3-4 3.4 Employees .................................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.5 Medical Facilities ........................................................................................................................ 3-7 3.6 Transit Dependent Population ................................................................................................... 3-8 3.7 School and Day Care Centers (operated by schools) Population Demand .............................. 3-10 3.8 Special Event ..................................... .......................................................................... ............. 3-11 3.9 Access and/or Functional Needs Population ........................................................................... 3-11 3.10 Correctional Facilities ..................................................... .......................................................... 3-12 3.11 External Traffic ............. ............................................... ............................................... .............. 3-12 3.12 Background Traffic .............................................................. ............................................. ........ 3-13 3.13 Summary of Demand ............................... ................................................................................ 3-13 4 ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY ............. ......... ............... .......................................................... 4-1 4.1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections ........................... ................................... 4-2 4.2 Capacity Estimation along Sections of Highway ....................................................................... .4-4 4.3 Application to the SPS Study Area ............................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.1 Two-Lane Roads ................................................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.2 Multilane Highway ............................................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.3 Freeways ..................... .............. ........ .... .......... ...................... .. ..... .. ............................. ....... 4-7 4.3.4 Intersections ......................................... ............................................................................. 4-8 4.4 Simulation and Capacity Estimation .......................................................................................... 4-8 4.5 Boundary Conditions .................................................................................................................. 4-9 5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME .......................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Background ..................................... ..................... .. .................................................................... 5-1 Surry Power Station KLD Engineering, P.C.

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5.2 Fundamental Considerations ............................................. ........................................................ 5-2 5.3 Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 ................. ...................... ............ 5-4 5.4 Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution ...................... ................................................ 5-5 5.4.1 Statistical Outliers ............. ..................... ........................... .............................................. ... 5-5 5.4.2 Staged Evacuation Trip Generation ....................................................... ............................ 5-8 5.4.3 Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas ................................................... 5-9 6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS ..................................................................... 6-1 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) .......................................................... 7-1 7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation ......................................................................... 7-1 7 .2 Staged Evacuation ...................................................................................................................... 7-2 7 .3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation ..................................................................... 7-2 7 .4 Evacuation Rates ........................................................................................................................ 7-4 7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate Results .............................................. ..................................... .......... 7-5 7.6 Staged Evacuation Results ............................................................ ............................................. 7-7 7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables ..... .............................................................................................. 7-7 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES ................................. 8-1 8.1 ETE for Schools, Day Care Centers, Day Camps, Transit Dependent People, Medical Facilities, and Correctional Facilities ......................................................................................... .................. .... ....... 8-2 8.2 ETE for Access and/or Functional Needs Population .......... ... .... .................... .. ...................... .. .. 8-9 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ...................................................................................... ............. 9-1 9.1 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 9-2 9.2 Additional Considerations .......................................................................................................... 9-2 10 EVACUATION ROUTES AND EVACUATION ASSEMBLY CENTERS ..................................................... 10-1 10.1 Evacuation Routes .................................................................................................................... 10-1 10.2 Evacuation Assembly Centers .................................................................................................. 10-2 List of Appendices A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS ............. ..................................................................... A-1 B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL.. ................................... .................... B-1 B.1 Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model. ................................................... B-1 B.2.1 DTRAD Description ............................................................................................................. B-2 B.2.2 Network Equilibrium .......................................................................................................... B-4 C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL ............................................................................................... C-1 C.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................................. C-2 C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram ................................................................................................. C-2 C.1.2 The Simulation Model ................................................................................... ..................... C-2 C.1.3 Lane Assignment ........................................................................................................... ..... C-6 C.2 Implementation ......................................................................................................................... C-6 Surry Power Station ii KLD Engineering, P.C.

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C.2.1 Computational Procedure .................................................................................................. C-6 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment {DTRAD) ..................................................... C-7 D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE .............................................................................. D-1 E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA ...................................................................................................................... E-1 F. DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY ..................................................................................................................... F-1 F.l Introduction ............................................................................................................................... F-1 F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan ....................................................................................... F-1 F.3 Survey Results ............................................................................................................................ F-2 F.3.1 Household Demographic Results ........................................................................................... F-2 F.3.2 Evacuation Response ............................................................................................................. F-3 F.3.3 Time Distribution Results ....................................................................................................... F-4 F.3.4 Emergency Communications ................................................................................................. F-6 G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN .......................................................................................................... G-1 G.l Manual Traffic Control .............................................................................................................. G-1 G.2 Analysis of Key TCP/ACP Locations ........................................................................................... G-1 H EVACUATION REGIONS ..................................................................................................................... H-1 J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM ..................................... J-1 K. EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK .................................................................................................. K-1 L. PAZ BOUNDARIES .................................................................................................................................. 1 M. EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES ................................................................................................. M-1 M.l Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Time .............................................................................. M-1 M.2 Effect of Changes in the Number of People in the Shadow Region Who Relocate ................. M-1 M.3 Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population ......................................................................... M-2 M.4 Enhancements in Evacuation Time .......................................................................................... M-3 N. ETE CRITERIA CHECKLIST ................................................................................................................... N-1 Note: Appendix I intentionally skipped Surry Power Station iii KLD Engineering, P.C.

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List of Figures Figure 1-1. SPS Location ..................... ....................................... .............................................................. 1-13 Figure 1-2. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network ........................................................................................... 1-14 Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology ..................................................................................... 2-10 Figure 3-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ ................................................................................................. 3-29 Figure 3-2. Permanent Resident Population by Sector ............................................................................ 3-30 Figure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles by Sector ................................................................................ 3-31 Figure 3-4. Shadow Population by Sector ................................................................................................ 3-32 Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by Sector .................................................................................................... 3-33 Figure 3-6. Transient Population by Sector .............................................. ........................................... ..... 3-34 Figure 3-7. Transient Vehicles by Sector ............. .... ............. ..................... .. ............ .................... ...... ....... 3-35 Figure 3-8. Employee Population by Sector ............................................................................................. 3-36 Figure 3-9. Employee Vehicles by Sector ................................................................................................. 3-37 Figure 4-1. Fundamental Diagrams .......................................................................................................... 4-10 Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip ............................................................ 5-17 Figure 5-2. Time Distributions for Evacuation Mobilization Activities .................................................... 5-18 Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution ....................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions ....................................................................... 5-20 Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5-Mile Region

.................................................................................................................................................................5-21 Figure 6-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ ......... ................ .......... ............. ......... ... ................... .................... 6-9 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology ....................... ...................... ...................... ...... ............ 7-20 Figure 7-2 . SPS Shadow Region ... ............ .......... ......... ... .................. .................. ...................... ............. .... 7-21 Figure 7-3 . Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate ...................................... ....... 7-22 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ................................ ........... 7-23 Figure 7-5 . Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ........ ............................. ...... 7-24 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ................. 7-25 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 7 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ................................ ........... 7-26 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours and 25 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ................. 7-27 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 1 for Region R03 ...................................................... 7-28 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 2 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-28 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 3 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-29 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 4 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-29 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 5 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-30 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 6 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-30 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 7 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-31 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 8 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-31 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 9 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-32 Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 10 for Region R03 .................................................. 7-32 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 11 for Region R03 .................................................. 7-33 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 12 for Region R03 .................................................. 7-33 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 13 for Region R03 ...................................... ............ 7-34 Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 14 for Region R03 .......... ......... .. ................ .. .. ......... 7-34 Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations .... .... .................. .... .................. .... ........ .......... 8-31 Figure 10-1. Major Evacuation Routes within the SPS EPZ ......................... .. .......... .......... .. ........ .......... 10-12 Figure 10-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for Isle of Wight County .......... ...................... .. .. ............... 10-13 Surry Power Station iv KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure 10-3. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for Surry County .............................................................. 10-14 Figure 10-4. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for York County ................................................................ 10-15 Figure 10-5. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Williamsburg ............................................. 10-16 Figure 10-6. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for James City County ...................................................... 10-17 Figure 10-7. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (1 of 2) ............................. 10-18 Figure 10-8. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (2 of 2) ............................. 10-19 Figure 10-9. General Population Evacuation Assembly Centers ............................................................ 10-20 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD lnterface ........................................................................ B-5 Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network ......................................................................................... C-12 Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams ......................................................................................................... C-13 Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with ti> 0 ............................................................................ C-13 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3) .................................................... C-14 Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities ..................................................................................................... D-5 Figure E-1. Overview of Schools within the EPZ ...................................................................................... E-14 Figure E-2. Schools within the EPZ - North .............................................................................................. E-15 Figure E-3. Schools within the EPZ - East ................................................................................................ E-16 Figure E-4. Overview of Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ ............................................. E-17 Figure E-5. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ - North .................................................... E-18 Figure E-6. Day Care Centers within the EPZ - East ................................................................................. E-19 Figure E-7. Medical Facilities within the EPZ ........................................................................................... E-20 Figure E-8. Major Employers within the EPZ ............................................................................................ E-21 Figure E-9. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ ................................................................................ E-22 Figure E-10. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ ............................................................................ E-23 Figure E-11. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ ........................................ E-24 Figure E-12. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (1 of 3) ............................................................................. E-25 Figure E-13. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (2 of 3) ............................................................................. E-26 Figure E-14. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (3 of 3) ............................................................................. E-27 Figure E-15. Correctional Facilities and Military Installations within the EPZ ......................................... E-28 Figure F-1. Household Size in the Study Area ........................................................................................... F-8 Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability ................................................................................................ F-8 Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability- 1 to 6+ Person Households .................................................................... F-9 Figure F-4. Household Ridesharing Preference ......................................................................................... F-9 Figure F-5. Commuters per Households in the Study Area ..................................................................... F-10 Figure F-6. Modes of Travel in the Study Area ........................................................................................ F-10 Figure F-7. Impact to Commuters due to the COVID-19 Pandemic ........................................................ F-11 Figure F-8. Households with Functional or Transportation Needs ......................................................... F-11 Figure F-9. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation ............................................................................. F-12 Figure F-10. Percent of Households that Await Returning Commuter Before Leaving ........................... F-12 Figure F-11. Study Area Evacuation Destinations .................................................................................... F-13 Figure F-12. Households with Pets/Animals ............................................................................................ F-13 Figure F-13. Households Evacuating with Pets/Animals .......................................................................... F-14 Figure F-14. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/College .............................................................. F-14 Figure F-15. Time to Commute Home from Work/College ...................................................................... F-15 Figure F-16. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation ................................................................................ F-15 Figure F-17. Time to Remove 6-8" of Snow from Driveway or Curb ....................................................... F-16 Figure F-18. Cell Phone Signal Reliability ................................................................................................. F-16 Figure F-19. Likelihood to Take Action Based off Emergency Management Officials Guidelines ........... F-17 Surry Power Station V KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure F-2O. Emergency Communication Alert ........................................................................................ F-17 Figure G-1. Traffic Control Points and Access Control Points for the SPS Study Area .............................. G-5 Figure H-1. Region ROl .............................................................................................................................. H-4 Figure H-2. Region RO2 .............................................................................................................................. H-5 Figure H-3. Region RO3 .............................................................................................................................. H-6 Figure H-4. Region RO4 .............................................................................................................................. H-7 Figure H-5. Region ROS .............................................................................................................................. H-8 Figure H-6. Region ROG .............................................................................................................................. H-9 Figure H-7. Region RO7 ............................................................................................................................ H-1O Figure H-8. Region ROB ............................................................................................................................ H-11 Figure H-9. Region RO9 ............................................................................................................................ H-12 Figure H-1O. Region RlO .......................................................................................................................... H-13 Figure H-11. Region Rll .......................................................................................................................... H-14 Figure H-12. Region Rl2 .......................................................................................................................... H-15 Figure H-13. Region Rl3 .......................................................................................................................... H-16 Figure H-14. Region Rl4 .......................................................................................................................... H-17 Figure H-15. Region RlS .......................................................................................................................... H-18 Figure H-16. Region Rl6 .......................................................................................................................... H-19 Figure H-17. Region Rl7 .......................................................................................................................... H-2O Figure H-18. Region Rl8 .......................................................................................................................... H-21 Figure H-19. Region Rl9 .......................................................................................................................... H-22 Figure H-2O. Region R2O .......................................................................................................................... H-23 Figure H-21. Region R21 .......................................................................................................................... H-24 Figure H-22. Region R22 .......................................................................................................................... H-25 Figure H-23. Region R23 .......................................................................................................................... H-26 Figure H-24. Region R24 .......................................................................................................................... H-27 Figure H-25. Region R25 .......................................................................................................................... H-28 Figure H-26. Region R26 .......................................................................................................................... H-29 Figure H-27. Region R27 .......................................................................................................................... H-3O Figure H-28. Region R28 .......................................................................................................................... H-31 Figure H-29. Region R29 .......................................................................................................................... H-32 Figure H-3O. Region R3O .......................................................................................................................... H-33 Figure H-31. Region R31 .......................................................................................................................... H-34 Figure H-32. Region R32 .......................................................................................................................... H-35 Figure H-33. Region R33 .......................................................................................................................... H-36 Figure H-34. Region R34 .......................................................................................................................... H-37 Figure H-35. Region R35 .......................................................................................................................... H-38 Figure H-36. Region R36 .......................................................................................................................... H-39 Figure H-37. Region R37 .......................................................................................................................... H-4O Figure H-38. Region R38 .......................................................................................................................... H-41 Figure H-39. Region R39 .......................................................................................................................... H-42 Figure H-4O. Region R4O .......................................................................................................................... H-43 Figure H-41. Region R41 .......................................................................................................................... H-44 Figure H-42. Region R42 .......................................................................................................................... H-45 Figure H-43. Region R43 .......................................................................................................................... H-46 Figure H-44. Region R44 .......................................................................................................................... H-47 Figure H-45. Region R45 .......................................................................................................................... H-48 Surry Power Station vi KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure H-46. Region R46 .......................................................................................................................... H-49 Figure H-47. Region R47 .......................................................................................................................... H-50 Figure H-48. Region R48 .......................................................................................................................... H-51 Figure H-49. Region R49 .......................................................................................................................... H-52 Figure J-1. Network Sources/Origins .......................................................................................................... J-6 Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 1) .............. J-7 Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2) ............................... J-7 Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 3) .............. J-8 Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4) .............................. J-8 Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 5) ................................................................................................................................................ J-9 Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 6) ................ J-9 Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 7) ............ J-10 Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8) ................... J-10 Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 9) ............ J-11 Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 10) ........ J-11 Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11) .............. J-12 Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 12) ............................................................................................................................................ J-12 Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario 13) ............................................................................................................................................ J-13 Figure J-15. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14) ............................................................................................................................................ J-13 Figure K-1. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network ............................................................................................. K-2 Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 1 ..................................................................................... K-3 Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 2 ..................................................................................... K-4 Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 3 ..................................................................................... K-5 Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 4 ..................................................................................... K-6 Figure K-6. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 5 ..................................................................................... K-7 Figure K-7. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 6 ..................................................................................... K-8 Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 7 ..................................................................................... K-9 Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 8 ................................................................................... K-10 Figure K-10. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 9 ................................................................................. K-11 Figure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 10 ............................................................................... K-12 Figure K-12. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 11 ............................................................................... K-13 Figure K-13. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 12 ............................................................................... K-14 Figure K-14. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 13 ............................................................................... K-15 Figure K-15. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 14 ............................................................................... K-16 Figure K-16. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 15 ............................................................................... K-17 Figure K-17. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 16 ............................................................................... K-18 Figure K-18. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 17 ............................................................................... K-19 Figure K-19. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 18 ............................................................................... K-20 Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 19 ............................................................................... K-21 Figure K-21. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 20 ............................................................................... K-22 Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 21 ............................................................................... K-23 Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 22 ............................................................................... K-24 Figure K-24. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 23 ............................................................................... K-25 Surry Power Station vii KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-25. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 24 ............................................................................... K-26 Figure K-26. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 25 ............................................................................... K-27 Figure K-27. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 26 ............................................................................... K-28 Figure K-28. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 27 ............................................................................... K-29 Figure K-29. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 28 ............................................................................... K-30 Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 29 ............................................................................... K-31 Figure K-31. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 30 ............................................................................... K-32 Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 31 ............................................................................... K-33 Figure K-33. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 32 ............................................................................... K-34 Figure K-34. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 33 ............................................................................... K-35 Figure K-35. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 34 ............................................................................... K-36 Figure K-36. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 35 ............................................................................... K-37 Figure K-37. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 36 ............................................................................... K-38 Figure K-38. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 37 ............................................................................... K-39 Figure K-39. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 38 ............................................................................... K-40 Figure K-40. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 39 ............................................................................... K-41 Figure K-41. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 40 ............................................................................... K-42 Figure K-42. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 41 ............................................................................... K-43 Figure K-43. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 42 ............................................................................... K-44 Figure K-44. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 43 ............................................................................... K-45 Figure K-45. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 44 ............................................................................... K-46 Figure K-46. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 45 ............................................................................... K-47 Figure K-47. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 46 ............................................................................... K-48 Figure K-48. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 47 ............................................................................... K-49 Figure K-49. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 48 ............................................................................... K-50 Figure K-50. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 49 ............................................................................... K-51 Figure K-51. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid SO ............................................................................... K-52 Figure K-52. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 51 ............................................................................... K-53 Figure K-53. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 52 ............................................................................... K-54 Figure K-54. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 53 ............................................................................... K-55 Figure K-55. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 54 ............................................................................... K-56 Figure K-56. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 55 ............................................................................... K-57 Figure K-57. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 56 ............................................................................... K-58 Figure K-58. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 57 ............................................................................... K-59 Figure K-59. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 58 ............................................................................... K-60 Figure K-60. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 59 ............................................................................... K-61 Figure K-61. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 60 ............................................................................... K-62 Figure K-62. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 61 ............................................................................... K-63 Figure K-63. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 62 ............................................................................... K-64 Figure K-64. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 63 ............................................................................... K-65 Figure K-65. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 64 ............................................................................... K-66 Figure K-66. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 65 ............................................................................... K-67 Figure K-67. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 66 ............................................................................... K-68 Figure K-68. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 67 ............................................................................... K-69 Figure K-69. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 68 ............................................................................... K-70 Figure K-70. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 69 ............................................................................... K-71 Figure K-71. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 70 ............................................................................... K-72 Surry Power Station viii KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-72. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 71 ............................................................................... K-73 Figure K-73. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 72 ............................................................................... K-74 Figure K-74. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 73 ............................................................................... K-75 Figure K-75. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 74 ............................................................................... K-76 Figure K-76. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 75 ............................................................................... K-77 Figure K-77. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 76 ............................................................................... K-78 Figure K-78. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 77 ............................................................................... K-79 Figure K-79. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 78 ............................................................................... K-80 Figure K-80. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 79 ............................................................................... K-81 Surry Power Station ix KLD Engineering, P.C.

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List of Tables Table 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction ................................. ................. .................. ...................... ................. 1-8 Table 1-2. Highway Characteristics ........................................................................................................... 1-8 Table 1-3. ETE Study Comparisons ............................................................................................................ 1-9 Table 2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions ............................................................................................... 2-8 Table 2-2. Model Adjustment for Adverse Weather ................................................................................. 2-9 Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population ...................................................................................... 3-14 Table 3-2. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by PAZ ............................................................ 3-15 Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by Sector ............................................................................ 3-16 Table 3-4. Summary of Transients and Transient Vehicles .. ............................ .......... .......... .............. ...... 3-17 Table 3-5. Summary of Employees and Employee Vehicles Commuting into the EPZ ............................ 3-18 Table 3-6. Medical Facility Transit Demand Estimates .... .......................... .......................... .............. ...... 3-19 Table 3-7. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates .......... ............ .......... ............ .................................. 3-20 Table 3-8. School, Day Care Center and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates ...................... .......... 3-21 Table 3-9. Access and/or Functional Needs Demand Summary ........................................................ ..... 3-23 Table 3-10. SPS External Traffic ............................................................................................................... 3-24 Table 3-11. Summary of Population Demand* ........................................................................................ 3-25 Table 3-12. Summary of Vehicle Demand* .............................................................................................. 3-27 Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities .............................................................................. 5-11 Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public ............................................................................. 5-11 Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work ................................................. 5-12 Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home ................................................................ 5-12 Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Leave Home ...................... ...................... .... 5-13 Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6 11 -8 11 of Snow from Driveway .......... .................... 5-13 Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events .. ...................... .......... ............ .......... ...................... .............. 5-14 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions .............. ................................... ...... ........... ........................... 5-14 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-Staged Evacuation .................... 5-15 Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation ....................... 5-16 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions ...................................... ...................... ............................... 6-4 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions .............. ............................... .......... ............ .......... .................. 6-6 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios ................ .... ........................ 6-7 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario ........ .. ................. .................... .............. ........ .... .......... ........ .... ... 6-8 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population .................... ..... 7-10 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population ....................... 7-13 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region ......................... 7-16 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region ....................... 7-17 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions ......................................................................................... 7-18 Table 8-1. Summary of Transportation Resources .................................................................................. 8-11 Table 8-2. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather .................................... 8-12 Table 8-3. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow ................................. 8-14 Table 8-4. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow ........................................ 8-16 Table 8-5. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather ......................................... 8-18 Table 8-6. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates- Rain/Light Snow ....................................... 8-20 Table 8-7. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow .............................................. 8-22 Table 8-8. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather ............................................ 8-24 Table 8-9. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow .......................................... 8-26 Surry Power Station X KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-10. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow .............................................. 8-28 Table 8-11. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates ................................................................. 8-30 Table 8-12. Access and/or Functional Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates ............................ 8-30 Table 10-1. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes ........................................................................ 10-3 Table 10-2. Bus Route Descriptions ........................................................................................................ 10-5 Table 10-3. School and Day care Evacuation Assembly Centers ........................................................... 10-10 Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms .................................................................................... A-1 Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II ........................................................ C-8 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model ........................................................................... C-9 Table C-3. Glossary ..................................................................................................................................C-10 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ .............................................................................................................. E-2 Table E-2. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ ..................................................................... E-4 Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ .............................................................................................. E-6 Table E-4. Major Employers within the EPZ ............................................................................................... E-7 Table E-5. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ ................................................................................... E-8 Table E-6. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ ................................................................................. E-9 Table E-7. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ ........................................... E-10 Table E-8. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ ............................................................................................. E-11 Table E-9. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ ...................................................................................... E-13 Table F-1. SPS Demographic Survey Sampling Plan .................................................................................. F-7 Table G-1. List of Key Manual Traffic Control Locations ........................................................................... G-3 Table G-2. ETE with No MTC .................................................................................................................... G-4 Table H-1. Percent of PAZ Population Evacuating for Each Region .......................................................... H-2 Table J-1. Sample Simulation Model Input ............................................................................................... J-2 Table J-2. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03) ........................... J-3 Table J-3. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1) ................................................................................................................................................. J-4 Table J-4. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 ......................... J-5 Table K-1. Summary of Nodes by the Type of Control. ............................................................................. K-1 Table M-1. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study ....................................... M-4 Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study .................................................... M-4 Table M-3. ETE Variation with Population Change ................................................................................. M-5 Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist .................................................................................................. N-1 Surry Power Station xi KLD Engineering, P.C.

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EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Surry Power Station (SPS) located in Surry County, Virginia. ETE are part of the required planning basis and provide Dominion Energy and state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action Decision-making.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Governmental agencies. Most important of these are:

Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 (10CFRS0), Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, NRC, 2011.

Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, February 2021.

FEMA, "Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual" (FEMA P-1028),

December 2019.

Overview of Project Activities This project began in February 2021 and extended over a period of 18 months. The major activities performed are briefly described in chronological sequence:

Conducted a virtual kick-off meeting with Dominion Energy personnel and emergency management personnel representing state and city/county governments.

Accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the year 2020.

Studied Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of the SPS, then conducted a detailed field survey of the highway network.

Updated the analysis network representing the highway system topology and capacities within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus a Shadow Region covering the region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant.

Conducted a random-sample online demographic survey of residents within the EPZ, to gather focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database. The survey instrument was reviewed and modified by the licensee and ORO personnel prior to the survey.

Data pertaining to employment, transients, and special facilities in each city/county were provided by Dominion Energy and by state and city/county offsite response organizations (OROs), supplemented with internet searches where data was missing.

The traffic demand and trip-generation rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated from the gathered data. The trip generation rates reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e., the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) computed using the results of the demographic survey of EPZ residents.

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The EPZ is subdivided into 30 PAZs. Following federal guidelines, these existing PAZs are grouped within circular areas or "keyhole" configurations (circles plus radial sectors) that define a total of 49 Evacuation Regions.

The time-varying external circumstances are represented as Evacuation Scenarios, each described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of Week (Midweek, Weekend); (3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening); and (4) Weather (Good, Rain, Snow). One special event scenario - Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at capacity on a summer weekend - was considered. One roadway impact scenario was considered wherein a single lane was closed on Interstate 64 westbound for the duration of the evacuation.

Staged evacuation was considered for those regions wherein the 2-Mile Region and sectors downwind to 5 miles were evacuated.

As per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, the Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is:

A rapidly escalating accident at the SPS that quickly assumes the status of a general emergency wherein evacuation is ordered promptly, and no early protective action have been implemented such that the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) is virtually coincident with the siren alert.

While an unlikely scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE, measured as the elapsed time from the ATE until the stated percentage of the population exits the impacted Region, that represent "upper bound" estimates. This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events.

If the emergency occurs while schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps are in session, the ETE study assumes that the children will be evacuated by bus directly to Evacuation Assembly Centers (EACs) located outside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors are advised to not pick up their children at these facilities prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that purpose. The ETE for children at these facilities are calculated separately. It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.

Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either ride-share with relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the city/county and state Radiological Emergency Response Plans (RERP). Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated with public transit, as needed: bus, wheelchair bus/van, or ambulance, as required. Separate ETE are calculated for the transit-dependent evacuees, for access and/or functional needs population, correctional facilities, and for those evacuated from special facilities.

Conducted a "final" meeting with Dominion Energy, emergency management personnel and the OROs to present final results of the study.

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Computation of ETE A total of 686 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETE quantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 49 Evacuation Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14 Evacuation Scenarios {49 x 14 = 686). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent evacuees, including children at schools, day care centers, and day camps for applicable scenarios.

Except for Region R03, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a portion of the people within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate. That is, the ATE applies only to those people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100% of the people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this ATE. The people occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take shelter.

The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside the impacted region, will elect to "voluntarily" evacuate. In addition, 20% of the population in the Shadow Region will also elect to evacuate. These voluntary evacuees could impede those who are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by voluntary evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.

Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2-Mile Region evacuate immediately, while those beyond 2 miles, but within the EPZ, shelter-in-place. Once 90% of the 2-Mile Region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate. As per federal guidance, 20% of people beyond 2 miles will evacuate (non-compliance) even though they are advised to shelter-in-place.

The computational procedure is outlined as follows:

A link-node representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a unidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or merge point. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations and on established traffic engineering procedures.

The evacuation trips are generated at locations called "zonal centroids" located within the EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on population density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area.

The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are compliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of the plant), then simulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation process estimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region.

The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 90% and 100%, respectively, of the population within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region. These statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats. The 90th percentile ETE have been identified as the values that should be considered when making protective action decisions because the 100th Surry Power Station ES-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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percentile ETE are prolonged by those relatively few people who take longer to mobilize. This is referred to as the "evacuation tail" in Section 4.0 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.

Traffic Management Plan This study references the comprehensive traffic management plan provided by James City, York, Isle of Wight and Surry Counties and the Cities of Williamsburg and Newport News. No additional traffic or access control measures have been identified as a result of this study.

Selected Results A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of figures and tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below.

Table 3-1 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each PAZ based on the 2020 Census data.

Table 6-1 defines each of the 49 Evacuation Regions in terms of their respective groups of PAZs to be evacuated.

Table 6-2 lists the 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Tables 7-1 and 7-2 are compilations of ETE for the general population. These data are the times needed to clear the indicated regions of 90% and 100% of the population occupying these regions, respectively. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the Shadow Region.

Tables 7-3 and 7-4 present ETE for the 2-Mile Region for un-staged (concurrent) and staged evacuations for the 90th and 100th percentiles, respectively.

Table 8-2 presents ETE for the children at schools, day care centers, and day camps in good weather.

Table 8-5 presents ETE for the transit-dependent population in good weather.

Table 8-8 presents ETE for the medical facilities in good weather.

Figure 6-1 displays a map of the SPS EPZ showing the layout of the 30 PAZs that comprise, in aggregate, the EPZ.

Figure H-11 presents an example of an Evacuation Region (Region Rll) to be evacuated under the circumstances defined in Table 6-1. See Appendix H for maps of all regions.

Conclusions

General population ETE were computed for 686 unique cases. Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles. These ETE range from 2:20 (hr:min) to 5:35 at the 90th percentile, and from 4:45 to 8:25 at the 100th percentile.

The comparison of Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the ETE for the 100th percentile are significantly longer (2:25 to 2:50 longer) than those for the 90th percentile. This is indicative of the pronounced traffic congestion in the EPZ on the north side of the James River beyond 5 miles from the plant. Congestion within the EPZ clears at 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes after the ATE. The last remnants of traffic congestion in the study area are north of the EPZ along the 1-64 corridor which clear at 8 hours9.259259e-5 days 0.00222 hours 1.322751e-5 weeks 3.044e-6 months and 40 minutes after the Surry Power Station ES-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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ATE.

Inspection of Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 indicates that a staged evacuation provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2-Mile Region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those beyond 2 miles (compare Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0 with Regions R42 through R49, respectively, in Tables 7-1 and 7-2). See Section 7.6 for additional discussion. Staged evacuation is not recommended for the SPS EPZ.

Comparison of Scenarios 3 and 13 in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the special event, Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg (see Section 3.8) operating at capacity, increases 90 th percentile ETE by up to 10 minutes and 100th percentile ETE by up to 20 minutes. The increased transients at these facilities on a peak summer weekend greatly increases local congestion near Busch Gardens and Water Country USA; however, the bottleneck north of Williamsburg (see discussion in Section 7.3) dictates the ETE. There is sufficient roadway capacity south of the EPZ to handle the additional transient vehicles.

Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Tabl indicates that the roadway closure - a single lane on 1-64 westbound from the interchange with State Route 143 - Exit 247 - in PAZ 16 to the northern boundary of the EPZ (just north of the Camp Peary interchange - Exit 238) - increases the 90th percentile ETE by at most 5 minutes. The roadway closure has no effect on regions which do not involve the evacuation of PAZs in and around the City of Williamsburg. The roadway impact scenario also has minimal impacts on the 100th percentile ETE for some regions with increases of at most 10 minutes. 1-64 westbound is normally 3 lanes in the area of the lane closure. Despite closing a lane, there are still 2 lanes available to service the evacuating traffic. The ramps to access 1-64 are the bottlenecks in this area, not the main thoroughfare. The bottleneck on the main thoroughfare of 1-64 westbound is farther west where the road narrows to 2 lanes west of Newman Rd (State Route 199).

Separate ETE were computed for schools, day care centers, and day camps, transit-dependent persons, medical facilities, correctional facilities, and access and/or functional needs persons. The average single-wave ETE for most of these facilities is comparable to or less than the general population ETE at the 90th percentile. See Section 8.

Table 8-1 indicates that there are sufficient bus resources to evacuate the entire school/day care center/day camp population, transit dependent population, correctional facility population, access and/or functional needs population, and ambulatory/wheelchair bound population at medical facilities in the EPZ in a single wave. However, there are not enough ambulances available to evacuate the bedridden people at medical facilities in a single wave. See Section 8.1.

If evacuees mobilize one hour quicker, the 90th percentile ETE remains the same and the 100th percentile ETE increases by 5 minutes. While the increase in 100th percentile ETE when mobilizing more quickly may seem counterintuitive, in a highly congested environment such as the SPS EPZ, this is to be expected. As discussed in Section 7.6, compressing the mobilization time can cause a spike or surge in demand during peak times which may exacerbate traffic congestion and prolong ETE.

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If evacuees mobilize one hour slower, the goth percentile ETE is increased by 5 minutes, and the 100th percentile ETE remains the same. As discussed in Section 7 .3, traffic congestion within the full EPZ clears (i.e., all highways within the EPZ operate at Level of Service A) at 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes after the ATE. If the time to mobilize is less than 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes, the 100th percentile ETE is dictated by congestion. See Section M.1 in Appendix M.

Shadow evacuation has a significant impact on the goth and 100th percentile ETE. Doubling (40%), tripling (60%), and quadrupling (80%) the shadow evacuation percentage increases the goth percentile ETE by 10 minutes, 25 minutes and 50 minutes, respectively -

significant changes. A full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases goth percentile ETE by 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 10 minutes, also a significant change. Doubling (40%), tripling (60%), and quadrupling (80%) the shadow evacuation percentage and full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases the 100th percentile ETE by 20 minutes, 45 minutes, 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 15 minutes, and 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 45 minutes, respectively - significant changes. See Section M.2 in Appendix M.

A population increase of 1g% or more in the full EPZ results in ETE changes which meet the NRC criteria for updating ETE between decennial Censuses. See Section M.3 in Appendix M.

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Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population PAZ 2010 Population 2020 Population 1 244 208 2 884 791 3 514 429 4 236 229 5 618 611 6 177 194 7 262 257 8 0 10 9 603 581 10 200 199 11 82 92 12 95 79 13 1,167 1,162 14 5,914 5,200 15 25,003 25,581 16 45,649 46,181 17 1,974 2,504 18A 1,374 1,360 18B 4,153 4,318 18C 3,960 4,096 18D 71 77 19A 6,214 6,531 19B 1,033 1,520 20A 877 1,711 20B 2,521 2,385 21 13,384 15,374 22A 1,305 1,649 22B 3,460 3,667 23 19,627 23,191 24 11,076 12,239 EPZ TOTAL 152,677 162,426 EPZ Population Growth (2010-2020): 6.39%

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Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Re ion Descri tion De rees 0 2-Mile Re ion /A ROZ 5-Mile Re ion N/A R03 Full EPZ N/A Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees

/A SW, W, W,N ,N 237-11 R04 NNE, NE 12- 56 ROS ENE, E 57- 101 R06 ESE 102 - 123 R07 SE 124- 146 ROS SSE 147 - 168 R09 s,ssw 169 - 213 RlO SW 214- 236 Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R11 N 349-11 R12 NNE 12- 33 R13 NE 34- 56 R14 ENE 57- 78 RlS E 79- 101 R16 ESE 102- 123 17 SE 124- 146 RlS SSE 147- 168 R19 s 169- 191 R20 SSW 192 - 213 R21 SW 214- 236 R22 WSW 237 - 258 R23 w 259- 281 R24 WNW 282 - 303 R25 NW 304- 326 R26 NNW 327- 348 Surry Power Station ES-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R27 N 349 -11 R28 NNE 12- 33 R29 NE 34-56 R30 ENE 57-78 R31 E 79-101 R32 ESE 102- 123 R33 SE 124-146 R34 SSE, S 147 - 191 R35 SSW 192- 213 R36 SW 214- 236 R37 WSW 237- 258 R38 w 259- 281 R39 WNW 282- 303 R40 NW 304- 326 R41 NNW 327- 348 Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R42 5-Mile Region N/A N/A WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237 - 11 R43 NNE, NE 12- 56 R44 ENE, E 57 -101 R45 ESE 102- 123 R46 SE 124- 146 R47 SSE 147- 168 R48 s,ssw 169- 213 R49 SW 214- 236 Surry Power Station ES-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario Season 1 Day of Week Time of Day Weather Special 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5 Summer Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None Rain/Light 7 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Heavy Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None Rain/Light 10 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Heavy Snow None 12 Winter Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None Special Event: Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at 13 Summer Weekend Midday Good capacity on summer weekends Roadway Impact: Lane Closure 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good on 1-64 Westbound 1 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 RO2 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:25 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:45 2:45 3:50 2:45 2:25 2:45 RO3 3:55 4:20 3:40 4 :00 3:45 3:55 4 :20 5:15 3:35 3:45 4 :35 3:30 3:45 3:55 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4 2:35 2:35 2:30 2:30 2:45 2:40 2:40 3:40 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:50 2:30 2:35 ROS 2:40 2:40 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:50 2:35 2:40 ROG 2:55 2:55 2:40 2:40 2:50 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:50 2:55 2:40 2:55 RO7 3:00 3:00 2:50 2:50 2:50 3:05 3:05 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:50 3:00 ROS 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:30 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:45 2:45 3:50 2:45 2:30 2:50 RO9 2:45 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:55 2:55 3:55 2:45 2:45 3:50 2:45 2:30 2:45 RlO 2:30 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:50 2:50 3:50 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:40 2:20 2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll 3:05 3:05 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:05 3:05 4 :00 3:00 3:00 4 :05 3:00 3:00 3:05 R12 3:05 3:05 2:55 2:55 3:00 3:05 3:05 4:05 3:00 3:00 4 :00 3:00 2:55 3:05 R13 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:55 2:55 4 :00 3:00 2:50 2:55 R14 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:55 2:55 4 :00 3:00 2:50 2:55 RlS 3:15 3:25 3:05 3:15 3:10 3:10 3:15 4 :10 3:00 3:15 4 :00 3:00 3:05 3:15 R16 4:05 4:20 3:45 4 :05 3:55 3:50 4:15 5:05 3:45 4:00 4 :50 3:45 3:45 4:05 R17 4:05 4:35 3:55 4 :15 4:05 4:10 4 :35 5:25 3:50 4 :05 4 :50 4 :00 4:05 4:10 R18 3:50 4:10 3:35 3:45 3:55 3:55 4:15 5:20 3:30 3:45 4 :45 3:40 3:40 3:50 R19 3:45 4:10 3:35 3:50 3:45 3:55 4 :15 5:00 3:25 3:40 4 :35 3:40 3:40 3:45 R2O 3:15 3:20 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:10 3:25 4:05 3:00 3:15 3:55 2:40 3:10 3:15 R21 3:15 3:25 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:10 3:25 4 :10 2:55 3:05 3:55 2:55 3:05 3:15 R22 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:00 3:00 3:10 3:15 4:10 2:50 3:00 3:55 3:00 2:50 3:05 R23 3:20 3:40 3:10 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:40 4 :30 3:10 3:30 4 :15 3:15 3:15 3:25 R24 3:25 3:40 3:10 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:35 4:30 3:10 3:25 4 :10 3:15 3:10 3:25 Surry Power Station ES-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact R25 3:20 3:35 3:10 3:25 3:15 3:20 3:35 4 :30 3:05 3:20 4 :10 3:10 3:10 3:20 R26 3:05 3:05 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:05 4:00 3:00 3:00 4 :00 3:00 3:00 3:05 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27 2:55 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:55 R28 2:55 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:55 R29 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:50 R30 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:50 R31 3:15 3:25 3:00 3:10 3:00 3:10 3:20 4 :20 3:05 3:10 4 :05 3:00 3:00 3:15 R32 3:55 4:20 3:55 4 :10 3:55 3:45 4:10 4:55 3:40 4:00 4 :45 3:45 3:55 3:55 R33 4:05 4:30 3:55 4:10 4:05 4:05 4:35 5:35 3:50 4:10 4 :50 3:50 4:05 4:05 R34 3:50 4:10 3:35 3:45 3:55 3:55 4:15 5:20 3:30 3:45 4 :40 3:35 3:40 3:50 R35 3:05 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:10 3:50 2:50 2:55 3:50 2:40 2:55 3:05 R36 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:00 3:00 3:05 3:15 4:05 2:45 2:55 3:55 3:00 2:55 3:10 R37 3:05 3:15 2:45 2:55 2:55 3:05 3:15 4 :10 2:50 3:00 3:50 2:55 2:50 3:05 R38 3:25 3:40 3:10 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:45 4:35 3:10 3:30 4 :15 3:15 3:10 3:25 R39 3:20 3:35 3:10 3:25 3:15 3:20 3:35 4 :30 3:10 3:25 4 :10 3:10 3:10 3:20 R40 3:15 3:35 3:05 3:20 3:10 3:20 3:35 4:30 3:05 3:20 4 :10 3:10 3:10 3:20 R41 2:55 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:50 2:50 2:35 2:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:15 3:25 3:25 4 :10 3:25 3:25 3:25 R43 3:10 3:10 3:15 3:15 3:20 3:15 3:15 3:55 3:20 3:20 4 :00 3:20 3:15 3:10 R44 3:15 3:15 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:15 3:20 4:00 3:20 3:20 4 :00 3:25 3:20 3:15 R45 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4 :05 3:25 3:25 4 :05 3:25 3:25 3:25 R46 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:10 3:25 3:25 4 :20 3:25 3:25 3:25 R47 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4 :15 3:25 3:25 4 :15 3:25 3:25 3:25 R48 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:10 3:25 3:25 4 :10 3:25 3:25 3:25 R49 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:25 4 :05 3:25 3:25 4 :05 3:25 3:20 3:20 Surry Power Station ES-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl 4:50 4:50 4 :45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4 :50 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 6:30 4 :45 4:45 4:50 RO2 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 RO3 6:05 6:55 5:40 6:30 6:10 6:10 7:05 8:25 5:30 5:55 7:25 5:40 6:00 6:15 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 ROS 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 ROG 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 RO7 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 ROS 4:50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 RO9 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 RlO 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R12 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R13 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R14 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 RlS 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R16 5:10 5:35 4 :55 5:10 5:05 5:05 5:35 6:40 4:55 5:10 6:40 4:55 4:55 5:10 R17 5:40 6:25 5:25 5:50 5:45 5:50 6:30 7:45 5:15 5:40 6:45 5:25 5:30 5:40 R18 6:00 6:55 5:40 6:15 6:10 6:05 6:45 8:25 5:25 5:55 7:25 5:35 6:00 6:05 R19 6:00 6:40 5:40 6:15 6:05 6:05 6:45 8:00 5:20 5:55 7:15 5:35 5:45 6:05 R2O 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R21 4:55 4:55 4 :55 5:15 4:55 4:55 5:05 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 5:00 4:55 R22 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R23 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:10 5:10 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R24 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:00 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 Surry Power Station ES-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact R25 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R26 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R28 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R29 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R30 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R31 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R32 5:30 5:55 5:10 5:50 5:20 5:10 5:45 6:40 4:55 5:15 6:40 4:55 5:15 5:30 R33 5:55 6:20 5:35 6:05 5:55 5:50 6:40 8:00 5:20 5:50 7:00 5:20 5:40 6:00 R34 6:00 6:55 5:40 6:15 6:10 6:05 6:45 8:25 5:25 5:55 7:25 5:30 6:00 6:05 R35 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R36 5:00 5:25 4:55 5:20 5:05 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 5:00 R37 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R38 4:55 5:00 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:15 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R39 4:55 5:00 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 5:00 6:40 4 :55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R40 4:55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:20 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R41 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R43 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 R44 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R45 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 R46 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R47 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 R48 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R49 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 Surry Power Station ES-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R02 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 ROS 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R06 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R07 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 ROS 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R09 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 RlO 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R43 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R44 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R45 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R46 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R47 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R48 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R49 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 Surry Power Station ES-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4:45 4 :50 R02 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 ROS 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4:50 6:30 4 :45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 4:50 R06 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 R07 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4:50 6:30 4 :45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 4:50 ROS 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 R09 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4:50 RlO 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R43 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 R44 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6:30 4 :45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 4:50 R45 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 R46 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4:50 6:30 4 :45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 4:50 R47 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4:45 4 :50 R48 4 :50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4:50 6:30 4 :45 4:45 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 4:50 R49 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4 :50 Surry Power Station ES-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 8-2. School and Pre-school Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Driver Loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC(mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School 45 15 5.4 3.9 82 2:25 3.0 4 2:30 Sanford Elementary School 45 15 2.1 36.3 3 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Warwick River Christian School 45 15 2.5 36.3 4 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 First Baptist Church Denbigh 45 15 1.2 40.6 2 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 BC Charles Elementary School 45 15 1.6 28.2 3 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Menchville High School 45 15 1.3 28.8 3 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Jenkins Elementary School 45 15 0.8 36.4 1 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Katherine Johnson Elementary School 45 15 7.0 3.9 108 2:50 4.4 6 3:00 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School 45 15 3.9 28.1 8 1:10 4.4 6 1:20 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 45 15 5.3 3.6 88 2:30 4.4 6 2:40 David A Dutrow Elementary School 45 15 3.6 4.8 45 1:45 4.4 6 1:55 Mary Passage Middle School 45 15 4.5 4.3 63 2:05 4.4 6 2:15 Stoney Run Elementary School 45 15 3.4 8.7 24 1:25 6.7 9 1:35 Denbigh High School 45 15 3.1 28.3 6 1:10 6.7 9 1:20 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 45 15 1.2 33.5 2 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary 45 15 1.8 3.4 32 1:35 6.7 9 1:45 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School 45 15 1.2 33.5 2 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Woodside High School 45 15 1.2 33.5 2 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Richneck Elementary School 45 15 2.4 4.9 30 1:30 6.7 9 1:40 James River Elementary School 60 15 9.3 11.4 49 2:05 6.0 8 2:15 Magruder Elementary School 110 15 4.4 2.4 110 3:55 23.0 31 4:30 Waller Mill Elementary School 110 15 4.7 4.0 70 3:15 23.0 31 3:50 Bruton High School 110 15 2.4 3.3 44 2:50 23.0 31 3:25 Queens Lake Middle School 110 15 4.5 3.4 79 3:25 23.0 31 4:00 Walsingham Academy (Lower School) 60 15 6.0 4.2 84 2:40 23.0 31 3:15 Walsingham Academy {Upper School) 60 15 6.0 4.2 84 2:40 23.0 31 3:15 College of William and Mary 60 15 4.5 3.5 77 2:35 23.0 31 3:10 Matthew Whaley Elementary School 60 15 4.1 3.6 68 2:25 23.0 31 3:00 Surry Power Station ES-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

Driver Loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

Berkeley Middle School 60 15 3.7 16.9 13 1:30 23.8 32 2:05 James Blair Middle School 60 15 2.4 4.5 32 1:50 23.8 32 2:25 Laurel Lane Elementary School 60 15 5.2 45.0 7 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School 60 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 DJ Montague Elementary School 60 15 0.5 7.7 4 1:20 3.2 4 1:25 Jamestown High School 60 15 5.9 37.9 9 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Providence Classical School 60 15 5.7 38.2 9 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Matoaka Elementary School 60 15 3.9 2.5 93 2:50 3.2 4 2:55 School Maximum for EPZ: 3:55 School Maximum: 4:30 School Average for EPZ: 1:55 School Average: 2:10 DAY CARE CENTERS AND DAY CAMPS 2

Sanford School Age Program 45 15 2.1 36.3 4 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Center 45 15 2.4 33.5 4 1:05 6.7 9 1:15 Denbigh Head Start Center 45 15 2.4 33.5 4 1:05 6.7 9 1:15 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 45 15 2.4 33.4 4 1:05 6.7 9 1:15 B.C. Charles School Age Program 45 15 0.5 38.9 1 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Jenkins School Age Program 45 15 0.8 36.4 1 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program 45 15 4.8 3.5 84 2:25 4.4 6 2:35 Nelson School Age Program 45 15 3.9 28.1 8 1:10 4.4 6 1:20 Mary Passage School Age Program 45 15 4.5 4.3 63 2:05 4.4 6 2:15 Epes School Age Program 45 15 3.4 8.7 24 1:25 6.7 9 1:35 Mcintosh School Age Program 45 15 1.8 3.4 32 1:35 6.7 9 1:45 Greenwood School Age Program 45 15 0.7 31.0 1 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Richneck School Age Program 45 15 2.4 4.9 30 1:30 6.7 9 1:40 York County Head Start 110 15 5.3 2.9 111 4:00 23.0 31 4:35 4-H Camp 60 15 7.2 2.5 169 4:05 3.2 4 4:10 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: 4:05 Day Care/Camp Maximum: 4:35 Day Care/Day Camp Average for EPZ: 1:45 Day Care/Camp Average: 1:55 2 It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation . See Table E-2 in Appendix E for a full list of day care centers in the EPZ.

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Table 8-5. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Driver Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses Time(min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC(min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 1 2 150 9.3 44.9 12 30 3:15 4.3 6 5 10 31 30 4:40 2 1 150 10.7 45.0 14 30 3:15 4.3 6 5 10 34 30 4:40 3 1 150 19.7 45.0 26 30 3:30 4.3 6 5 10 58 30 5:20 4 1 150 15.3 44.0 21 30 3:25 3.9 5 5 10 46 30 5:05 5 2 150 13.1 42.8 18 30 3:20 12.5 17 5 10 52 30 5:15 6 1 150 24.3 45.0 32 30 3:35 3.3 4 5 10 69 30 5:35 7 1 150 12.0 36.1 20 30 3:20 4.2 6 5 10 42 30 4:55 8 1 150 15.0 45.0 20 30 3:20 2.0 3 5 10 43 30 4:55 9 1 150 19.8 45.0 26 30 3:30 3.4 5 5 10 58 30 5:20 10 1 150 13.3 45.0 18 30 3:20 3.3 4 5 10 39 30 4:50 11 1 150 17.3 27.6 38 30 3:40 3.4 5 5 10 74 30 5:45 12 1 150 9.1 41.6 13 30 3:15 2.0 3 5 10 28 30 4:35 13 2 150 17.2 7.6 136 30 5:20 3.3 4 5 10 so 30 7:00 14 1 150 21.4 9.8 132 30 5:15 3.3 4 5 10 61 30 7:05 15 1 150 12.1 29.4 25 30 3:25 3.3 4 5 10 41 30 4:55 16 1 150 5.6 13.2 26 30 3:30 3.3 4 5 10 30 30 4:50 17 1 150 4.4 6.5 41 30 3:45 27.4 36 5 10 48 30 5:55 18 1 150 3.6 10.1 22 30 3:25 27.3 36 5 10 47 30 5:35 19 1 150 4.2 6.8 37 30 3:40 27.3 36 5 10 48 30 5:50 20 1 150 5.2 6.0 52 30 3:55 27.3 36 5 10 51 30 6:10 21 1 150 6.2 4.5 82 30 4:25 27.3 36 5 10 53 30 6:40 22 3 150 13.3 9.8 82 30 4:25 2.5 3 5 10 38 30 5:55 23 3 150 20.4 14.2 87 30 4:30 5.7 8 5 10 63 30 6:30 24 3 150 11.4 8.6 80 30 4:20 2.5 3 5 10 34 30 5:45 3 See Table 10-1 for a description of the bus routes.

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One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Driver Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses Time(min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC(min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 25 4 150 10.8 9.1 72 30 4:15 2.5 3 5 10 32 30 5:35 26 8 150 17.6 10.4 101 30 4:45 2.5 3 5 10 54 30 6:30 27 2 150 11.2 36.2 19 30 3:20 6.0 8 5 10 38 30 4:55 28 2 150 10.5 38.5 16 30 3:20 6.0 8 5 10 36 30 4:50 29 2 150 10.0 36.2 17 30 3:20 6.2 8 5 10 35 30 4:50 30 2 150 6.8 6.7 61 30 4:05 2.9 4 5 10 27 30 5:25 31 2 150 6.2 5.4 69 30 4:10 6.2 8 5 10 27 30 5:30 32 1 150 8.1 6.8 71 30 4:15 6.2 8 5 10 31 30 5:40 33 1 150 7.0 5.6 75 30 4:15 6.2 8 5 10 27 30 5:35 34 1 150 11.7 8.7 80 30 4:20 6.2 8 5 10 41 30 5:55 35 1 150 9.2 8.5 65 30 4:05 2.9 4 5 10 35 30 5:30 36 1 150 4.9 5.3 56 30 4:00 6.2 8 5 10 25 30 5:20 37 1 150 7.6 7.3 62 30 4:05 6.2 8 5 10 33 30 5:35 38 1 150 6.5 9.7 41 30 3:45 6.2 8 5 10 31 30 5:10 39 1 150 7.9 8.9 53 30 3:55 6.2 8 5 10 36 30 5:25 40 1 150 3.6 9.5 23 30 3:25 2.9 4 5 10 16 30 4:30 41 1 150 8.9 7.4 72 30 4:15 6.2 8 5 10 34 30 5:45 42 1 150 5.6 4.3 79 30 4:20 2.9 4 5 10 22 30 5:35 43 1 150 3.4 23.9 9 30 3:10 2.8 4 5 10 15 30 4:15 44 1 150 5.4 4.6 69 30 4:10 6.2 8 5 10 25 30 5:30 45 1 150 5.8 5.0 70 30 4:10 6.2 8 5 10 27 30 5:30 46 1 150 4.1 6.9 36 30 3:40 2.8 4 5 10 18 30 4:50 Maximum ETE: 5:20 MaximumETE: 7:05 Average ETE: 3:55 Average ETE: 5:30 Surry Power Station ES-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-8. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Travel Time Loading Rate to EPZ Mobilization (min per Total Loading Dist. To EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 180 1 15 15 5.5 25 3:40 McDonald Army Health Center Wheelchair bound 180 5 10 50 5.5 11 4:05 Bedridden 180 15 3 30 5.5 17 3:50 Ambulatory 180 1 45 30 0.6 2 3:35 Mennowood Retirement Community Wheelchair bound 180 5 29 60 0.6 1 4:05 Bedridden 180 15 9 30 0.6 2 3:35 Ambulatory 180 1 55 30 1.3 20 3:50 Charter Senior living of Newport News Wheelchair bound 180 5 35 60 1.3 3 4:05 Bedridden 180 15 11 30 1.3 20 3:50 Ambulatory 180 1 2 2 7.2 52 3:55 Morningside of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 30 60 7.2 14 4:15 Bedridden 180 15 30 30 7.2 34 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 30 30 8.4 35 4:05 Colonial Manor Senior Community Wheelchair bound 180 5 30 60 8.4 16 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 4 30 8.4 35 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 75 30 4.3 45 4:15 Commonwealth Senior living Wheelchair bound 180 5 25 60 4.3 19 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 2 30 4.3 45 4:15 Ambulatory 180 1 146 30 3.1 31 4:05 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound 180 5 6 30 3.1 31 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 20 20 8.6 44 4:05 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 13 60 8.6 19 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 4 30 8.6 37 4:10 Wheelchair bound 180 5 130 60 2.8 13 4:15 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden 180 15 20 30 2.8 31 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 46 30 4.6 31 4:05 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 4 20 4.6 39 4:00 Greenfield Senior living of Williamsburg Ambulatory 180 1 65 30 0.8 16 3:50 Surry Power Station ES-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Travel Time Loading Rate to EPZ Mobilization (min per Total Loading Dist. To EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Wheelchair bound 180 5 10 50 0.8 11 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 90 30 6.1 36 4:10 Williamsburg Landing Wheelchair bound 180 5 33 60 6.1 18 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 5 30 6.1 36 4:10 Ambulatory 180 1 241 30 2.6 30 4:00 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 34 60 2.6 12 4:15 Bedridden 180 15 9 30 2.6 30 4:00 Ambulatory 180 1 11 11 5.1 45 4:00 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 22 60 5.1 14 4:15 Ambulatory 180 1 58 30 3.5 31 4:05 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound 180 5 20 60 3.5 12 4:15 Ambulatory 180 1 215 30 2.8 32 4:05 Eastern State Hospital Wheelchair bound 180 5 20 60 2.8 13 4:15 Bedridden 180 15 30 30 2.8 32 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 28 28 0.5 24 3:55 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place Wheelchair bound 180 5 18 60 0.5 10 4:10 Bedridden 180 15 6 30 0.5 24 3:55 Ambulatory 180 1 5 5 8.4 110 4:55 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound 180 5 6 30 8.4 89 5:00 Wheelchair bound 180 5 43 60 8.4 69 5:10 Consulate Health Care Bedridden 180 15 44 30 8.4 89 5:00 Ambulatory 180 1 374 30 5.5 87 5:00 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 50 60 5.5 67 5:10 Bedridden 180 15 16 30 5.5 87 5:00 Maximum ETE: 5:10 Average ETE: 4:15 Surry Power Station ES-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Legend Gl SPS PAZ 1.,.-:, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Figure 6-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station ES-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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S II rry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Evac uate

'-- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022

- - Wind Sector Boundary 2.5 Figure H-11. Region Rll Surry Power Station ES-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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1 INTRODUCTION This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Surry Power Station (SPS), located in Surry County, Virginia. This ETE study provides Dominion Energy, state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action Decision-making.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by federal governmental agencies. Most important of these are:

Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 {10CFRS0), Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, NRC, 2011.

Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, February 2021.

FEMA, "Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual" (FEMA P-1028),

December 2019.

The work effort reported herein was supported and guided by Dominion Energy and local stakeholders who contributed suggestions, critiques, and the local knowledge base required.

Table 1-1 presents a summary of stakeholders and interactions.

1.1 Overview of the ETE Process The following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence:

1. Information Gathering:

a. Defined the scope of work in discussions with representatives from Dominion Energy.

b. Attended a project kick-off meeting with personnel from Dominion Energy, Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the City of Williamsburg, the City of Newport News, Surry County, James City County, York County, and Isle of Wight County to discuss methodology, project assumptions and to identify issues to be addressed and resources available.

c. Conducted a detailed field survey of the highway system and of area traffic conditions within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and Shadow Region.

d. Reviewed existing state and city/county emergency plans.

e. Conducted an online demographic survey of EPZ residents (see Appendix F).

f. Obtained demographic data from the 2020 Census (see Section 3.1).

g. Conducted a data collection effort to identify and describe special facilities (i.e.,

schools, day care centers, medical facilities), major employers, access and/or Surry Power Station 1-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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functional needs population, transportation resources available, the special event, and other important information.

2. Estimated distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required by various population groups (permanent residents, employees, and transients) to prepare (mobilize) for the evacuation trip. These estimates are primarily based upon the random sample online demographic survey.

3. Defined Evacuation Scenarios. These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, in trip generation distribution and in highway capacities, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.

4. Reviewed the existing traffic management plan to be implemented by local and state police in the event of an incident at the plant. Traffic and access control are applied at specified Traffic Control Points {TCPs) and Access Control Points {ACPs) located within the study area. See Section 9 and Appendix G.

5. Used existing Protective Action Zones (PAZs) to define Evacuation Regions. The EPZ is partitioned into 30 PAZs along jurisdictional and geographic boundaries. "Regions" are groups of contiguous PAZs for which ETE are calculated. The configurations of these Regions reflect wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area. Each Region, other than those that approximate circular areas, approximates a "key-hole section" within the EPZ as recommended by NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.

6. Estimated demand for transit services for persons at schools, day care centers (operated by schools), medical facilities, correctional facilities, transit-dependent persons at home, and those with access and/or functional needs.

7. Prepared the input streams for the DYNEV II System which computes ETE (see Appendices B and C).

a. Estimated the evacuation traffic demand, based on the available information derived from Census data, and from data provided by city/county and state agencies, Dominion Energy and from the demographic survey.

b. Applied the procedures specified in the 2016 Highway Capacity Manual {HCM 2016 1) to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes.

c. Updated the link-node representation of the evacuation network, which is used as the basis for the computer analysis that calculates the ETE.

d. Calculated the evacuating traffic demand for each Region and for each Scenario.

e. Specified selected candidate destinations for each "origin" (location of each "source" where evacuation trips are generated over the mobilization time) to 1 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2010.

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support evacuation travel consistent with outbound movement relative to the location of the plant.

8. Executed the DYNEV II model to determine optimal evacuation routing and compute ETE for all residents, transients and employees ("general population") with access to private vehicles. Generated a complete set of ETE for all specified Regions and Scenarios.

9. Documented ETE in formats in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.

10. Calculated the ETE for all transit activities including those for special facilities (schools, day care centers (operated by schools), medical facilities, and correctional facilities), for the transit-dependent population and for the access and/or functional needs population.

1.2 The Surry Power Station Location The Surry Power Station is located on the southern bank of the James River in Surry County, in southeastern Virginia. The site is approximately 45 miles northwest of Virginia Beach. The EPZ consists of parts of Surry, Isle of Wight, James City and York Counties and the Cities of Newport News and Williamsburg. Figure 1-1 displays the area surrounding the SPS. This map identifies the communities in the area and the major roads.

1.3 Preliminary Activities These activities are described below.

Field Surveys of the Highway Network In February 2021, KLD personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and the Shadow Region which consists of the area between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant. The characteristics of each section of highway were recorded.

These characteristics are shown in Table 1-2.

Video and audio recording equipment were used to capture a permanent record of the highway infrastructure. No attempt was made to meticulously measure such attributes as lane width and shoulder width; estimates of these measures based on visual observation and recorded images were considered appropriate for the purpose of estimating the capacity of highway sections. For example, Exhibit 15-7 in the HCM 2016 indicates that a reduction in lane width from 12 feet (the "base" value) to 10 feet can reduce free flow speed (FFS) by 1.1 mph - not a material difference - for two-lane highways. Exhibit 15-46 in the HCM 2016 shows little sensitivity for the estimates of Service Volumes at Level of Service (LOS) E (near capacity), with respect to FFS, for two-lane highways.

The data from the audio and video recordings were used to create detailed geographic information systems (GIS) shapefiles and databases of the roadway characteristics and of the traffic control devices observed during the road survey; this information was referenced while preparing the input stream for the DYNEV II System. Roadway types were assigned based on the following criteria:

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Freeway: limited access highway, 2 or more lanes in each direction, high free flow speeds

Freeway Ramp: ramp on to or off of a limited access highway

Major Arterial: 3 or more lanes in each direction

Minor Arterial: 2 lanes in each direction

Collector: single lane in each direction

Local Roadway: single lane in each direction, local road with low free flow speeds As documented on page 15-6 of the HCM 2016, the capacity of a two-lane highway is 1,700 passenger cars per hour in one direction. For freeway sections, a value of 2,250 vehicles per hour per lane is assigned, as per Exhibit 12-37 of the HCM 2016. The road survey has identified several segments which are characterized by adverse geometrics on two-lane highways which are reflected in reduced values for both capacity and speed. These estimates are consistent with the service volumes for LOS E presented in HCM 2016 Exhibit 15-46. Link capacity is an input to DYNEV II which computes the ETE. Further discussion of roadway capacity is provided in Section 4 of this report.

Traffic signals are either pre-timed (signal timings are fixed over time and do not change with the traffic volume on competing approaches) or are actuated (signal timings vary over time based on the changing traffic volumes on competing approaches). Actuated signals require detectors to provide the traffic data used by the signal controller to adjust the signal timings.

These detectors are typically magnetic loops in the roadway, or video cameras mounted on the signal masts and pointed toward the intersection approaches. If detectors were observed on the approaches to a signalized intersection during the road survey, detailed signal timings were not collected as the timings vary with traffic volume. TCPs and ACPs at locations which have control devices are represented as actuated signals in the DYNEV II system.

If no detectors were observed, the signal control at the intersection was considered pre-timed, and detailed signal timings were gathered for several signal cycles. These signal timings were input to the DYNEV II system used to compute ETE, as per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 guidance.

Figure 1-2 presents the link-node analysis network that was constructed to model the evacuation roadway network in the EPZ and Shadow Region. The directional arrows on the links and the node numbers have been removed from Figure 1-2 to clarify the figure. The detailed figures provided in Appendix K depict the analysis network with directional arrows shown and node numbers provided. The observations made during the field survey and aerial imagery were used to calibrate the analysis network.

Demographic Survey An online demographic survey was performed in 2021 to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F presents the survey instrument, the procedures used and tabulations of data compiled from the survey returns.

These data were utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy, to estimate the number of evacuating vehicles during an evacuation, and to estimate elements of the mobilization Surry Power Station 1-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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process. This database was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-dependent residents.

Computing the Evacuation Time Estimates The overall study procedure is outlined in Appendix D. Demographic data were obtained from several sources, as detailed later in this report. These data were analyzed and converted into vehicle demand data. The vehicle demand was loaded onto appropriate "source" links of the analysis network using GIS mapping software. The DYNEV II model was then used to compute ETE for all Regions and Scenarios.

Analytical Tools The DYNEV II System that was employed for this study is comprised of several integrated computer models. One of these is the DYNEV {DYnamic Network Evacuation) macroscopic simulation model, a new version of the IDYNEV model that was developed by KLD under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

DYNEV II consists of four sub-models:

A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see Appendix C).

A Trip Distribution (TD), model that assigns a set of candidate destination (D) nodes for each "origin" {O) located within the analysis network, where evacuation trips are "generated" over time. This establishes a set of O-D tables.

A Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA), model which assigns trips to paths of travel (routes) which satisfy the O-D tables, over time. The TD and DTA models are integrated to form the DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) model, as described in Appendix B.

A Myopic Traffic Diversion model which diverts traffic to avoid intense, local congestion, if possible.

Another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES {UNlfied Iransportation gngineering ~ystem) was used to expedite data entry and to automate the production of output tables.

The dynamics of traffic flow over the network are graphically animated using the software product, EVAN (Evacuation ANimator), developed by KLD. EVAN is GIS based, and displays statistics output by the DYNEV II System, such as LOS, vehicles discharged, average speed, and percent of vehicles evacuated. The use of a GIS framework enables the user to zoom in on areas of congestion and query road name, town name and other geographical information.

The procedure for applying the DYNEV II System within the framework of developing ETE is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms.

For the reader interested in an evaluation of the original model, 1-DYNEV, the following references are suggested:

NUREG/CR-4873 - "Benchmark Study of the 1-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code Surry Power Station 1-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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NUREG/CR-4874 - The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to:

Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ.

Restrict movement toward the plant to the extent practicable and disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways.

Move traffic in directions that are generally outbound, relative to the location of the plant.

DYNEV II provides a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. This description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures that are designed to represent the behavioral responses of evacuees. The effects of these countermeasures may then be tested with the model.

1.4 Comparison with Prior ETE Study Table 1-3 presents a comparison of this ETE study with the 2012 study (KLD TR - 528, dated December 2012). The goth percentile ETE for the full EPZ (Region R03) for Scenario 6 (winter, midweek, midday with good weather), Scenario 7 (winter, midweek, midday with rain/light snow), and Scenario 8 (winter, midweek, midday with heavy snow) increased by 15 minutes for good weather, 20 minutes for rain, and 55 minutes for heavy snow, when compared with the previous ETE study. The goth percentile ETE for a Scenario 3 (summer, weekend, midday with good weather) evacuation of Region R03 decreased by 10 minutes, while a Scenario 4 (summer, weekend, midday with rain) evacuation decreased by 5 minutes when compared with the previous ETE study.

The 100th percentile ETE for the full EPZ for Scenario 6 (winter, midweek, midday with good weather), Scenario 7 (winter, midweek, midday with rain/light snow), and Scenario 8 (winter, midweek, midday with heavy snow) increased by 15 minutes for good weather, 55 minutes for rain/light snow, and 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 30 minutes for heavy snow, when compared with the previous ETE study. For Scenario 3 (summer, weekend, midday with good weather), Scenario 4 (summer, weekend, midday with rain weather), the 100th percentile ETE decreased by 15 minutes for good weather, and 5 minutes for rain when compared with the previous ETE study.

The major factors contributing to the differences between the ETE values obtained in this study and those of the previous study can be summarized as follows:

The permanent resident population within the EPZ has increased by 6.4%. This population increase results in additional permanent resident evacuating vehicles, which can increase the ETE.

The permanent resident population in the Shadow Region increased by 7.8%. This population increase results in significantly more vehicles evacuating within the Shadow Surry Power Station 1-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Region, which reduces the available roadway capacity for EPZ evacuees, which can increase the ETE.

The number of resident vehicles increased by 18.7% compared to previous ETE study, due to the increase in resident population (discussed above) and due to the significant decrease in vehicle occupancy (2.08 persons per vehicle in 2012 versus 1.76 persons per vehicle in the current study) based on the results of the demographic survey. More evacuating vehicles can increase ETE.

The transient population decreased by 10.9%, while the number of transient vehicles decreased by 15.3%, which can decrease the ETE for summer scenarios. This reduction in transients is primarily the result of increased efforts to avoid double counting population.

Roadway capacity reductions for heavy snow cases increased from 20% to 25% based on the new NRC guidance. As a result, roadways process less vehicles than previously assumed during heavy snow cases and could result in longer ETE.

The time to mobilize 90% of residents with commuters in the 2012 study was 180 minutes versus 210 minutes in this study. Given the traffic congestion in this EPZ (see Section 7.3), the 90th percentile ETE are dictated by congestion. The longer time to mobilize 90% of residents with commuters could increase ETE.

Interstate 64 was widened to 3 lanes in each direction for most of the study area over the last decade. The additional lane on 1-64 increases the capacity on this evacuation route by 50% since the last study, which could decrease ETE.

The significant increase (18. 7%) in permanent resident evacuating vehicles is largely responsible for the increases in ETE in this study. The potential increase in ETE was offset somewhat by the significant increase in capacity along 1-64 due to the widening project in the last decade. The ETE for summer scenarios decreased slightly as the combination of reduced transient vehicles and increased capacity along 1-64 virtually offset the significant increase in permanent resident evacuating vehicles.

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Table 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction Stakeholder Nature of Stakeholder Interaction Attended kick-off meeting to define project methodology and data requirements. Provided recent SPS employee data. Coordinated information exchange with offsite response organizations.

Dominion Energy Reviewed and approved all project assumptions and draft report. Engaged in the ETE development and was informed of the study results. Attended "final" meeting with Dominion Energy personnel where the ETE study results were presented .

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Attended kick-off meeting to discuss the project Virginia Department of Emergency methodology, key project assumptions and to define Management (VDEM) data needs. Provided existing emergency plans, including traffic and access control points and other City of Williamsburg information critical to the ETE study. Reviewed and City of Newport News approved project assumptions. Engaged in the ETE Surry County development and informed of the study results.

Provided data for special facilities in the EPZ.

James City County Attended "final" meeting with ORO personnel where York County the ETE study results were presented .

Isle of Wight County Table 1-2. Highway Characteristics

Number of lanes

Posted speed

Lane width

Actual free speed

Shoulder type & width

Abutting land use

Interchange geometries

Control devices

Lane channelization & queuing

Intersection configuration (including capacity (including turn bays/lanes) roundabouts where applicable)

Geometrics: curves, grades (>4%)

Traffic signal type

Unusual characteristics: Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, toll booths, etc.

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Table 1-3. ETE Study Comparisons Topic 2012 ETE Study Current ETE Study ArcGIS Software using 2010 US Census ArcGIS Software using 2020 US Census blocks; area ratio method used. blocks; area ratio method used.

Resident Population Population = 152,677 Population = 162,426 Basis Vehicles= 73,983 Vehicles= 87,847 2.47 persons/household, 1.19 evacuating 2.58 persons/household, 1.47 evacuating Resident Population vehicles/household yielding: 2.08 vehicles/household yielding: 1. 76 Vehicle Occupancy persons/vehicle. persons/vehicle Employee estimates based on Employee estimates based on information information provided about major provided by Dominion Energy supplemented employers in EPZ, supplemented by by Census OnTheMap data. 1.05 employees phone calls to employer. 1.08 employees per vehicle based on demographic survey Employees per vehicle based on telephone survey results.

results.

Employees = 18,093 Employees = 18,015 Vehicles= 16,749 Vehicles= 17,425 Estimates based upon U.S. Census data Estimates based upon U.S. Census data and and the results of the telephone survey. the results of the demographic survey.

Transit-Dependent A total of 3,480 people who do not have A total of 1,493 people who do not have Population access to a vehicle, requiring 122 buses access to a vehicle, requiring 70 buses to to evacuate. evacuate.

348 access and/or functional needs 350 access and/or functional needs persons Access and/or persons needed special transportation to require special transportation to evacuate.

Functional Needs evacuate (253 require a bus, 95 require a 25 buses and 16 wheelchair buses are Population wheelchair-accessible vehicle). required to evacuate this population .

Transient estimates based upon data Transient estimates based upon provided by the cities/counties within the information provided about transient EPZ. When data could not be provided, the attractions in EPZ, supplemented by number of transient vehicles was estimated observations of the facilities during the based on the parking lot capacity or Transient Population road survey and internet research accommodation capacity obtained from aerial imagery and facility websites.

Transients = 69,342 Transients= 61,790 Vehicles = 29,044 Vehicles = 24,603 Surry Power Station 1-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Topic 2012 ETE Study Current ETE Study Population based on data provided by the Special facility population based on cities/counties within the EPZ, supplemented information provided by each city/county by internet searches where data was not within the EPZ.

provided.

Medical Facility Population Current census = 1,588 Current Census = 2,282 Buses Required= 24 Buses Required = 46 Wheelchair Bus Required = 24 Wheelchair Buses Required= 56 Ambulances Required = 56 Ambulances Required= 99 Enrollment data was provided by city/county School population based on information emergency management agencies, and provided by each city/county within the internet searches where data was not EPZ.

School Population provided.

School enrollment= 29,816 School enrollment = 28,564 Buses required = 433 Buses required : 388 Voluntary evacuation 20% of the population within the EPZ, 20% of the population within the EPZ, but from within EPZ in but not within the Evacuation Region not within the Evacuation Region (see Figure areas outside region to (see Figure 2-1) 2-1) be evacuated 20% of people outside of the EPZ within 20% of people outside of the EPZ within the the Shadow Region Shadow Region (see Figure 7-2)

Shadow (see Figure 7-2)

Evacuation/Population 20% Population = 27,930 20% Population = 25,903 20% Vehicles= 15,382 20% Vehicles= 12,466 External (Through) Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Traffic Vehicles= 14,256 Vehicles= 15,472 Network Size 2,157 links; 1,581 nodes 2,688 links; 2,005 nodes Field surveys conducted in February Field surveys conducted in February 2021.

Roadway Geometric 2012. Roads and intersections were Roads and intersections were video Data video archived. archived. Road capacities based on HCM Road capacities based on 2010 HCM. 2016.

Direct evacuation to designated Direct evacuation to designated Evacuation School Evacuation Evacuation Assembly Centers. Assembly Centers.

50% of transit-dependent persons will 69% of transit-dependent persons will Ridesharing evacuate with a neighbor or friend based evacuate with a neighbor or friend based on on federal guidance. the results of the demographic survey.

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Topic 2012 ETE Study Current ETE Study Based on residential telephone survey of Based on residential demographic survey of specific pre-trip mobilization activities: specific pre-trip mobilization activities :

Residents with commuters returning Residents with commuters returning leave leave between 30 and 285 minutes . between 30 and 285 minutes.

Residents without commuters returning Trip Generation for Residents without commuters returning leave between 15 and 240 minutes.

Evacuation leave between 0 and 240 minutes.

Employees and transients leave between 0 Employees and transients leave between and 75 minutes.

0 and 105 minutes.

All times measured from the Advisory to All times measured from the Advisory to Evacuate.

Evacuate .

Good, Rain/Light Snow, or Heavy Snow. The Normal, Rain, or Snow. The capacity and capacity and free flow speed of all links in free flow speed of all links in the network the network are reduced by 10% in the event Weather are reduced by 10% in the event of rain of rain and light snow. During "heavy snow",

and 20% for snow. speed and capacity are reduced by 15% and 25%, respectively.

Modeling DYNEV II System -Version 4.0.11.0 DYNEV II System - Version 4.0.21.0 Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, Newport News Fall Festival of Folklife.

and Colonial Williamsburg at capacity on a Special Events Special Event Population = 26,250 summer weekend.

additional transients Special Event Population = 19,855 additional transients, 6,600 vehicles.

41 Regions (central sector wind direction 49 Regions (central sector wind direction and each adjacent sector technique and each adjacent sector technique used)

Evacuation Cases used) and 14 Scenarios producing 574 and 14 Scenarios producing 686 unique unique cases. cases.

ETE reported for 90th and 100th percentile ETE reported for 90th and 100th percentile Evacuation Time population. Results presented by Region population. Results presented by Region and Estimates Reporting and Scenario. Scenario.

Winter Weekday Midday, Winter Weekday Midday, Good Weather= 3:40 Good Weather= 3:55 Evacuation Time Rain/Light Snow : 4:00 Rain/Light Snow: 4:20 Estimates for the Heavy Snow: 4:20 Heavy Snow: 5:15 Entire EPZ (Region R03), 90th Percentile Summer Weekend, Midday, Summer Weekend, Midday, Good Weather= 3:50 Good Weather= 3:40 Rain : 4:05 Rain : 4:00 Surry Power Station 1-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Topic 2012 ETE Study Current ETE Study Winter Weekday Midday, Winter Weekday Midday, Good Weather= 5:55 Good Weather= 6:10 Evacuation Time Rain/Light Snow: 6:10 Rain/Light Snow: 7:05 Estimates for the Heavy Snow: 6:55 Heavy Snow: 8:25 Entire EPZ (Region R03), 100th Percentile Summer Weekend, Midday, Summer Weekend, Midday, Good Weather= 5:55 Good Weather= 5:40 Rain: 6:35 Rain: 6:30 Surry Power Station 1-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Eastville y

Mobjack

[ill Bay Ch/,iton

/

Chic~~;;,miny / 19 Cape

/

Charles

/ 614 I

Claremont I

Atlantic Ocean Legend

SPS Date:8/5/2021

'- _,, 2, 5, 10 M ile Rings Copyright: ESRI Data and Maps 2020 KlDEngineering,Oomiinion www.census.gov 10 Miles I Figure 1-1. SPS Location Surry Power Station 1-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Chesapeake Bay Poquoson County Legend SPS Node

- - link G1 PAZ Shadow Region Figure 1-2. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network Surry Power Station 1-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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2 STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS This section presents the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of the ETE.

2.1 Data Estimates Assumptions

1. Permanent resident population estimates are based upon 2020 U.S. Census population from the Census Bureau website 1 . A methodology, referred to as the "area ratio method", is employed to estimate the population within portions of census blocks that are divided by PAZ boundaries. It is assumed that the population is evenly distributed across a census block in order to employ the area ratio method (See Section 3.1).

2. Federal guidance (NUREG/CR-7002, Rev 1) defines a major employer as an employer with 200 or more employees working a single shift. The 2019 Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC) provided by the U.S. Census Bureau's OnTheMap Census analysis tooI 2 was used to estimate employees commuting into the EPZ. The data was extrapolated to 2020 using the short-term employment growth projection for the State of Virginia 3 (See Section 3.4).

3. Population estimates at transient and special facilities are based upon data received from the city/county emergency management agencies and supplemented by internet searches where data is missing.

4. The relationship between the permanent resident population and evacuating vehicles is developed from the demographic survey. Average values of 2.58 persons per household and 1.47 evacuating vehicles per household are used. See Appendix F.

5. Employee vehicle occupancies for major employers is based on the results of the demographic survey. 1.05 employees per vehicle are used in the study. In addition, it is assumed there are two people per carpool, on average.

6. The maximum bus speed assumed within the EPZ is 45 mph based on Virginia state law 4 for buses and average posted speed limits on major roadways within the EPZ.

7. Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys performed in 2021 (verified by aerial imagery), and the application of the Highway Capacity Manual 2016.

2.2 Methodological Assumptions

1. The Planning Basis Assumption for the calculation of ETE is a rapidly escalating accident that requires evacuation, and includes the following 5 (as per NRC guidance):

1 www.census.gov 2 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/ OnTheMap is an interactive map displaying workplace and residential distributions by user-defined geographies at census block level detail. It also reports the work characteristics detail on age, and earnings industry groups.

3 https://virginiaworks.com/download-center 4https://law .lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title46.2/chapter8/section46.2-871 /#:~:text=The%20maximum%20speed%20limit%20for, is%20more%20than %2055%20miles 5 We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to:

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a. The Advisory to Evacuate {ATE) is announced coincident with siren notification.

b. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after siren notification.

c. ETE are measured relative to the ATE.

2. The center-point of the plant will be located at the geometric center of the containment buildings for the two reactors at 37° 9' 57.96" N, 76° 41' 51.72" W.

3. The DYNEV 11 6 system is used to compute ETE in this study.

4. Evacuees will drive safely, travel radially away from the plant to the extent practicable given the highway network, and obey all traffic control devices and traffic guides. All major evacuation routes are used in the analysis.

5. The existing EPZ and PAZ boundaries will be used. See Figure 3-1.

6. The Shadow Region extends to 15 miles radially from the plant, or approximately 5 miles radially beyond the EPZ boundary, as per NRC guidance. See Figure 7-2.

7. One hundred {100%) of people within the impacted "keyhole" will evacuate. Twenty percent {20%) of the population within the Shadow Region and within PAZs in the EPZ that are not advised to evacuate will voluntarily evacuate, as shown in Figure 2-1, as per NRC guidance. Sensitivity studies explore the effect on ETE of increasing the percentage of voluntary evacuees in the Shadow Region (see Appendix M).

8. Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuating vehicles per household, and mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as that of the permanent resident population within the EPZ.

9. The ETE are presented at the 90th and 100th percentiles in graphical and tabular format, as per NRC guidance. The percentile ETE is defined as the elapsed time from the ATE issued to a specific Region of the EPZ, to the time that Region is clear of the indicated percentile of evacuees.

10. The ETE also includes consideration of "through" {External-External traffic that originates its trip outside of the study area and has its destination outside of the study area) trips during the time that such traffic is permitted to enter the evacuated Region.

See Section 3.11.

11. This study does not assume that roadways are empty at the start of the evacuation.

Rather, there is an initialization period (often referred to as "fill time" in traffic simulation) wherein the anticipated traffic volumes from the beginning of evacuation are loaded onto roadways in the study area. The amount of initialization/fill traffic that is on the roadways in the study area at the start of the evacuation depends on the scenario and the region being evacuated. See Section 3.12.

12. To account for boundary conditions (roadway conditions outside the study area that are not specifically modeled due to the limited radius of the study area) beyond the study

1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.

2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.

It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various stages of an emergency. See Section 5.1 for more detail.

6 The models of the I-DYNEV System were recognized as state of the art by the Atomic Safety & Licensing Board (ASLB) in past hearings. (Sources: Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Hearings on Seabrook and Shoreham; Urbanik). The models have continuously been refined and extended since those hearings and were independently validated by a consultant retained by the NRC. The DYNEV II model incorporates the latest technology in traffic simulation and in dynamic traffic assignment.

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area, this study assumed a 25% reduction in capacity on two-lane roads and multi-lane highways for roadways that have traffic signals downstream. The 25% reduction in capacity is based on the prevalence of actuated traffic signals in the study area and the fact that the evacuating ("main street") traffic volume is more significant than the competing ("side street") traffic volume at any downstream signalized intersections, thereby warranting a more significant percentage (75% in this case) of the signal green time. There is no reduction in capacity for freeways due to boundary conditions.

2.3 Study Assumptions on Mobilization Times

1. Trip generation time (also known as mobilization time, or the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation) are based upon the results of the recent, online demographic survey. It is assumed that stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur.

2. One hundred percent (100%) of the EPZ population can be notified within 45 minutes, in accordance with the 2019 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual.

3. Commuter percentages (and percentage of residents awaiting the return of a commuter) are based on the results of the demographic survey. According to the survey results, approximately 74% of the households in the EPZ have at least 1 commuter; 61%

of those households with commuters will await the return of a commuter before beginning their evacuation trip. Therefore, 45% (74% x 61% = 45%) of EPZ households will await the return of a commuter, prior to beginning their evacuation trip.

2.4 Transit Dependent Assumptions

1. The percentage of transit-dependent people who will rideshare with a neighbor or friend are based on the results of the demographic survey. According to the survey results, approximately 69% of the transit-dependent population will rideshare.

2. Buses are used to transport those without access to private vehicles:

a. Schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps

i. If schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps are in session, transport (buses) will evacuate students directly to the designated Evacuation Assembly Centers (EACs).

ii. It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.

iii. For the schools, day care centers, and day camps that are evacuated via buses, it is assumed no children will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.

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iv. Schoolchildren, if school is in session, are given priority in assigning transit vehicles.

b. Medical Facilities

i. Buses, wheelchair buses, and ambulances will evacuate patients at medical facilities within the EPZ, as needed. Medical facilities are required to have their own evacuation plans and to contract or own vehicles needed for evacuation. This is taken into consideration in the ETE analysis.

ii. Detailed census data, including the percent breakdown of ambulatory, wheelchair bound and bedridden patients were provided by James City County for all the medical facilities in their portion of the EPZ. These percentages are used to determine the number of ambulatory, wheelchair bound and bedridden patients at the medical facilities in the EPZ that did not provide updated data.

c. Correctional facilities:

i. There are two correctional facilities in the EPZ - the Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail and the Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center. These facilities will shelter-in-place for most situations but may evacuate if necessary.

Both facilities have evacuation plans and transportation resources to evacuate in. ETE will be computed for these facilities based on data/information provided by management of these facilities.

d. Transit-dependent permanent residents:

i. Transit-dependent (do not own or have access to a private vehicle) general population will be evacuated to EACs.

ii. Access and/or functional needs population may require city/county assistance (ambulance, bus or wheelchair transport) to evacuate. This is considered separately from the general population ETE, as per NRC guidance.

iii. Households with 3 or more vehicles were assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.

e. Analysis of the number of required roundtrips ("waves") of evacuating transit vehicles are presented.

f. Transport of transit-dependent evacuees from EACs to congregate care centers is not considered in this study.

3. Transit vehicle capacities:

a. School buses = 70 students per bus for elementary schools/day care centers/day camps and 50 students per bus for middle/high schools

b. Ambulatory transit-dependent persons, medical facility patients and correctional facility inmates = 30 persons per bus Surry Power Station 2-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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c. Vans = 5 persons

d. Ambulances= 2 bedridden persons (includes advanced and basic life support)

e. Wheelchair accessible vans = 4 wheelchair bound persons

f. Wheelchair accessible buses= 12 wheelchair bound persons

4. Transit vehicles mobilization times (time needed to get bus drivers to buses and buses to the facility to be evacuated, ready to load with evacuees), which are considered in ETE calculations:

a. School and transit buses will arrive at schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps to be evacuated as follows:

1. James City - 60 minutes

2. Newport News - 45 minutes

3. Williamsburg -60 minutes

4. York County - 110 minutes

5. Isle of Wight County - no schools in EPZ

6. Surry County - no schools in EPZ

b. Transit dependent buses are mobilized when approximately 90% of residents with no commuters have completed their mobilization activities at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months and 30 minutes after the ATE. The residents taking longer to mobilize are assumed to rideshare with a friend or neighbor.

c. Vehicles will arrive at hospitals, medical facilities, and senior living facilities to be evacuated within 180 minutes of the ATE.

5. Transit Vehicle loading times:

a. Concurrent loading on multiple buses/transit vehicles is assumed

b. School buses will be loaded in 15 minutes.

c. Transit Dependent buses will require 1 minute of loading time per passenger.

d. Buses for hospitals and medical facilities will require 1 minute of loading time per ambulatory passenger.

e. Wheelchair transport vehicles will require 5 minutes of loading time per passenger.

f. Ambulances will be loaded in 15 minutes per bedridden passenger.

6. Drivers for all transit vehicles are available.

2.5 Traffic and Access Control Assumptions

1. Traffic Control Points (TCP) and Access Control Points (ACP) as defined in the approved city/county and state emergency plans are considered in the ETE analysis, as per NRC guidance.

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2. ACP are assumed to staffed 120 minutes after the ATE, as per NRC guidance. No through traffic will enter the EPZ after this 120-minute time period.

3. All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are unhindered by personnel manning TCPs and ACPs.

2.6 Scenarios and Regions

1. A total of 14 "Scenarios" representing different temporal variations (season, time of day, day of week) and weather conditions are considered. Scenarios to be considered are defined in Table 2-1:

a. The largest transient attractions in the EPZ - Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg - operating at capacity on summer weekends is considered as the special event (single or multi-day event that attracts a significant population into the EPZ; recommended by NRC guidance) for Scenario 13. Note, this special event occurs on most weekends in the summer and is not a one time per year special event. See Section 3.8 for additional information.

b. As per NRC guidance, one segment of one of the highest volume roadways will be out of service or one lane outbound on a freeway must be closed for a roadway impact scenario. This study considers the closure of one lane on 1-64 westbound (from the interchange with State Route 143 - Exit 247 - in PAZ 16 to the northern boundary of the EPZ just north of the Camp Peary interchange -

Exit 238) for the roadway impact scenario - Scenario 14.

2. Two types of adverse weather scenarios are considered. Rain may occur for either winter or summer scenarios; snow occurs in winter scenarios only. It is assumed that the rain or snow begins at about the same time the evacuation advisory is issued. Thus, no weather-related reduction in the number of transients who may be present in the EPZ is assumed.

3. Adverse weather affects roadway capacity and free flow speeds. Transportation research indicates capacity and speed reductions of about 10% for rain and a range of 10% to 25% for snow. In accordance with Table 3-1 of Revision 1 to NUREG/CR-7002, this study assumes a 10% reduction in speed and capacity for rain and light snow. The "heavy snow" scenarios considered assume that there was a significant snowfall such that minor roadways and driveways have snow on them. Based on conversations with the EPZ city/county emergency management agencies, primary roads are plowed first during snowstorms, then secondary roads. Neighborhood roads are not cleared. The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) is the lead agency for snow removal. The "heavy snow" scenarios considered in this study assume that a snowstorm happened and primary and secondary roads were cleared, but there is still a fine layer of snow on the roadways such that the roads are passable albeit at lower speeds and capacities.

(NOTE: If the snow is too significant or if it is actively snowing and accumulating, evacuation would not be prudent and sheltering-in-place would be the preferred Surry Power Station 2-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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protective action. The "heavy snow" ETE values documented in this report would not apply for such circumstances.) During "heavy snow" scenarios a speed and capacity reduction of 15% and 25% was used, respectively. The adverse weather speed and capacity factors are shown in Table 2-2.

4. Some evacuees will need additional time to clear their driveways and access the public roadway system for heavy snow scenarios. The distribution of time for this activity was gathered through a demographic survey of the public and takes up to 180 minutes. It is assumed that the time needed by evacuees to remove snow from their driveways is sufficient time for snow removal crews to mobilize and clear/treat primary and secondary roadways. There are additional activities that a person will have to do before they actually begin their evacuation trip, which will delay their departure time. This allows additional time to plow the minor roads, as needed.

5. Employment is reduced slightly in the summer for vacations.

6. Mobilization and loading times for transit vehicles are slightly longer in adverse weather. Mobilization times are 10 minutes and 20 minutes longer in rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively. Loading times are 5 minutes and 10 minutes longer for school buses and 10 minutes and 20 minutes longer for transit buses in rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively. Refer to Table 2-2.

7. Regions are defined by the underlying "keyhole" or circular configurations as specified in Section 1.4 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. These Regions, as defined, display irregular boundaries reflecting the geography of the PAZs included within these underlying configurations. All 16 cardinal and intercardinal wind direction keyhole configurations are considered. Regions to be considered are defined in Table 6-1. It is assumed that everyone within the group of PAZs forming a Region that is issued an ATE will, in fact, respond and evacuate in general accord with the planned routes.

8. Due to irregular shapes of the PAZs, there are instances where a small portion of a PAZ (a "sliver") is within the keyhole and the population within that small portion is low (less than 500 people or 10% of the PAZ population, whichever is less). Under those circumstances, the PAZ would not be included in the Region so as to not evacuate large numbers of people outside of the keyhole for a small number of people that are actually in the keyhole, unless otherwise stated in the PAR document.

9. Staged evacuation is considered as defined in NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 - those people between 2 and 5 miles will shelter-in-place until 90% of the 2-Mile Region has evacuated, then they will evacuate. See Regions R42 through R49 in Table 6-1.

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Table 2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario Season 7 Day of Week Time of Day Weather Special 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None Midweek, 5 Summer Evening Good None Weekend 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain/Light Snow None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Heavy Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain/Light Snow None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Heavy Snow None Midweek, 12 Winter Evening Good None Weekend Special Event: Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown 13 Summer Weekend Midday Good Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at capacity on summer weekends Roadway Impact:

14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Westbound Lane Closure on 1-64 7 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).

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Table 2-2. Model Adjustment for Adverse Weather Mobilization Loading Time for Loading Time for Mobilization Time Time for School Buses Transit Buses 8 Highway Free Flow for General Transit Scenario Capacity* Speed* Population Vehicles 10-minute 5-minute 10-minute Rain 90% 90% No Effect increase increase increase Clear driveway before leaving 20-minute 10-minute 20-minute Snow 75% 85%

home increase increase increase (See Section 5)

Adverse weather capacity and speed values are given as a percentage of good weather conditions.

Roads are assumed to be passable.

8 Does not apply to medical facilities, correctional facilities, and those with access and/or functional needs as loading times for these people are already conservative.

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Plant Location Region to be 1111 Evacuated : 100%

Evacuation 11111 Shelter, Evacuate then 1 1 20% Shadow L___J Evacuation 15 Miles 15 Miles 12-Mile Region I 15-Mile Region I Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind Keyhole: 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind Staged Evacuation: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Surry Power Station 2-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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3 DEMAND ESTIMATION The estimates of demand, expressed in terms of people and vehicles, constitute a critical element in developing an evacuation plan. These estimates consist of three components:

1. An estimate of population within the EPZ, stratified into groups (resident, employee, transient).

2. An estimate, for each population group, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle. This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.

3. An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.

Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates. Our primary source of population data, the 2020 Census, is not adequate for directly estimating some transient groups.

Throughout the year, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These non-residents may dwell within the EPZ for a short period (e.g., a few days or one or two weeks), or may enter and leave within one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so that the associated number of evacuating vehicles can be ascertained.

The potential for double-counting people and vehicles must be addressed. For example:

A resident who works and camps within the EPZ could be counted as a resident, again as an employee and once again as a camper.

A visitor who stays at a hotel and spends time at a park, then goes camping could be counted three times.

Furthermore, the number of vehicles at a location depends on time of day. For example, motel parking lots may be full at dawn and empty at noon. Similarly, parking lots at area parks, which are full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn. Estimating counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities could tend to overestimate the number of transients and can lead to ETE that are too conservative.

Analysis of the population characteristics of the SPS EPZ indicates the need to identify three distinct groups:

Permanent residents - people who are year-round residents of the EPZ.

Transients - people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specific purpose (camping, recreation) and then leave the area.

Employees - people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to work within the EPZ on a daily basis.

Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of the population groups are presented for each PAZ and by polar coordinate representation (population rose).

The SPS EPZ is subdivided into 30 PAZs. The PAZs comprising the EPZ are shown in Figure 3-1.

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3.1 Permanent Residents The primary source for estimating permanent population is the 2020 U.S. Census data with an availability date of September 16, 2021. The average household size (2.58 persons/household -

See Appendix F, Sub-Section F.3.1) and the number of evacuating vehicles per household (1.47 vehicles/household - See Appendix F, Sub-Section F.3.2) were adapted from the demographic survey.

The permanent resident population is estimated by cutting the census block polygons by PAZ and EPZ boundaries using GIS software. A ratio of the original area of each census block and the updated area (after cutting) is multiplied by the total block population to estimate the population within the EPZ. The methodology (referred to as the "area ratio method") assumes that the population is evenly distributed across a census block. Table 3-1 provides the permanent resident population within the EPZ, by PAZ, for 2010 and 2020 (based on the methodology above). As indicated, the permanent resident population within the EPZ has increased by 6.39% since the 2010 Census.

To estimate the number of vehicles, the 2020 Census permanent resident population is divided by the average household size and then multiplied by the average number of evacuating vehicles per household. Permanent resident population and vehicle estimates are presented in Table 3-2. Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-3 present the permanent resident population and permanent resident vehicle estimates by sector and distance from SPS. This "rose" was constructed using GIS software. Note, the 2020 Census includes residents living in group quarters, such as skilled nursing facilities, group homes, university/college student housing, military quarters, prisons, etc. These people are transit dependent (will not evacuate in personal vehicles) and are included in the special facility evacuation demand estimates. To avoid double counting vehicles, the vehicle estimates for these people have been removed.

The resident vehicles in Table 3-2 and Figure 3-3 have been adjusted accordingly.

3.1.1 The College of William and Mary There is one college within the SPS EPZ: The College of William and Mary, located in PAZ 21, 7.2 miles north of SPS. Data provided by the City of Williamsburg indicate this college has a total enrollment of 8,200 full-time students. According to the National Application Center 1 database (as of December 2021), 54% of the students live in campus housing. As such, there are 4,428 (8,200 x 54%) on-campus students and 3,772 (8,200 - 4,428) off-campus students who commute to school.

Based on the data collected for the previous ETE study, 55% of the on-campus students have vehicles. Assuming this data is still applicable, there would be 2,435 (4,428 x 55%) on-campus students with personal vehicles. The remaining 1,993 (4,428 - 2,435) on-campus students can be evacuated by ridesharing with fellow classmates or by buses. According to the demographic survey results, 69% of the transit-dependent people will rideshare (see Figure F-4) to evacuate.

Thus, 1,375 (1,993 x 69%) on-campus students would evacuate along with their fellow classmates in personal vehicles, leaving 618 (1,993 - 1,375) students to be evacuated by bus.

1 https://www.nationalapplicationcenter.com/

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Using the capacity of 30 people per transit-dependent bus, the total number of buses needed for this college is 21 (618 + 30 = 21, rounded up) or 42 vehicles (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles due to its larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics).

The commuting students consist of two groups: those who commute from inside the EPZ and those who commute from outside the EPZ. The former, are part of the permanent resident population as discussed above; the latter are considered as a unique population group, using the employee trip generation distribution (see Section 5) but the school scenario percentages (see Section 6). Data collected for the previous study indicates approximately 64. 7% of the commuting students live outside of the EPZ. As such, it is estimated that 2,440 (3,772 x 64. 7%)

students commute into the EPZ. Since these commuting students have similar travel patterns as commuters, the commuter vehicle occupancy rate of 1.05 persons per vehicle (see Appendix F, Sub-section F.3.1) obtained from the demographic survey was used, resulting in 2,324 (2,440

+ 1.05) evacuating vehicles.

In summary, the 8,200 students at College of William and Mary will be evacuated in 4,759 (2,435 + 2,324) personal vehicles and 21 buses.

3.1.2 Military Installations There are four military installations within the SPS EPZ: Fort Eustis, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station, Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Depot. Data for these military installations were provided by Fort Eustis and by York County. The data/information for the military installations is summarized as follows:

Fort Eustis:

Located in PAZ 14, approximately 6.4 miles west of SPS.

As per the Fort Eustis Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the entire PAZ 14 is occupied by Fort Eustis. Currently, there are 5,200 personnel living on post, including 1,900 students. These people have been included as permanent residents as discussed above. Thus, the 2020 population number for PAZ 14 has been adjusted in Table 3-1 and Table 3-2.

In the event of an emergency, the 1,900 students will be evacuated by buses with a capacity of 44 students per bus. As such, the number of buses needed for Fort Eustis is 44 (1,900 + 44 = 44, rounded up) or 88 vehicles. To avoid double counting vehicles, the vehicle estimates for these students have been removed in Table 3-2.

In addition to the permanent residents living on post, Fort Eustis has 6,000 to 8,000 employees on workdays. The estimates of employees and employee vehicles at Fort Eustis will be discussed in detail in Section 3.4.

Yorktown Naval Weapons Station:

Located in PAZ 16, approximately 7.0 miles east-northeast of SPS.

According to the York County OEM, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station has an estimate of 600 residents. These people are counted as permanent residents as discussed in Section 3.1. The aerial imagery shows there are living quarters in PAZs 16 and 19B. As such, the 2020 population numbers for PAZs 16 and 19B have been adjusted in Table 3-1 Surry Power Station 3-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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and Table 3-2 accordingly.

As per York County OEM, the majority of the residents can be evacuated by private vehicles, while limited bus assistance would be needed for transit-dependent residents.

This group of people will be included and discussed in Section 3.6.

In addition, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station has approximately 2,000 employees on a daily basis, as per York County OEM. Refer to Section 3.4 for detailed information on the employee population and employee vehicles.

Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center:

Both installations are located in PAZ 20B. Camp Peary is approximately 9.8 miles north of SPS, while Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center is approximately 9.9 miles north-northeast of SPS.

The 2020 Census indicates there are no permanent residents living on these two posts.

Therefore, no residents or resident vehicles were estimated for Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center.

According to York County OEM, Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center have approximately 300 and 1,000 employees, respectively. The estimates of employees and employee vehicles will be discussed in detail in Section 3.4.

3.2 Shadow Population A portion of the population living outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles radially from the SPS may elect to evacuate without having been instructed to do so. This area is called the Shadow Region. Based upon NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 guidance, it is assumed that 20% of the permanent resident population, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, in the Shadow Region will elect to evacuate.

Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuating vehicles per household, mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as those for the EPZ permanent resident population. Table 3-3, Figure 3-4, and Figure 3-5 present estimates of the shadow population and vehicles, by sector. Similar to the EPZ resident vehicle estimates, resident vehicles at group quarters have been removed from the shadow population vehicle demand in Table 3-3 and Figure 3-5.

3.3 Transient Population Transient population groups are defined as those people (who are not permanent residents, nor commuting employees) who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (camping, recreation).

Transients may spend less than one day or stay overnight at camping facilities, hotels and motels. Data for these facilities were provided by the cities/counties within the EPZ. When data could not be provided, the number of transient vehicles was estimated based on the parking lot capacity or accommodation capacity obtained from aerial imagery and facility websites. It is assumed that transients would travel to the recreational areas as a family/household. As such, the average household size (2.58 - See Section 3.1) was used to Surry Power Station 3-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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estimate the transient population. The transient attractions within the SPS EPZ are summarized as follows:

Campgrounds - 1,690 transients and 689 vehicles; 2.45 transients per vehicle (NOTE:

Recreational Vehicles (RVs) are modeled as 2 vehicles in DYNEV due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.)

Golf Courses - 3,277 transients and 1,359 vehicles; 2.41 transients per vehicle

Historical Sites-6,810 transients and 1,763 vehicles; 3.86 transients per vehicle

Marinas - 856 transients and 403 vehicles; 2.12 transients per vehicle (NOTE: vehicles with boat trailers are modeled as 2 vehicles in DYNEV.)

Parks - 3,036 transients and 950 vehicles; 3.20 transients per vehicle

Other Recreational Facilities (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, and Stoney Run Athletic Complex)-12,719 transients and 4,930 vehicles; 2.58 transients per vehicle

Lodging Facilities - 33,402 transients and 14,509 vehicles; 2.30 transients per vehicle The largest transient attractions in the SPS EPZ are Busch Gardens in James City County and Water Country USA in York County which can attract nearly 25,000 people combined on a peak day. As per discussion with county emergency management personnel, the visitors include people living within the EPZ, who have been included as permanent residents in Section 3.1. To avoid double counting the resident vehicles, data collected for the special event was used (50%

of the theme park attendees are EPZ residents - See Section 3.8 for additional discussion).

The third largest transient attraction is Jamestown National Park, including Jamestown Settlement which is the major tourist attraction of the park. According to the local agency, the Jamestown National Park and Settlement attract a total of 5,400 daily visitors and 1,025 vehicles, on average, during peak seasons.

Another large transient attraction is the Colonial Williamsburg Visitor Center which has a large parking lot and is the origin of most transient vehicle trips for transients visiting Colonial Williamsburg. Note, the historical Village of Williamsburg is a pedestrian-only area; thus, no vehicles are assigned to this area. According to the City of Williamsburg, the average numbers of transients and vehicles at the visitor center are 4,400 and 1,650 during a peak day, respectively. Similar to the visitors at the transient attractions discussed above, 50% of visitors at the visitor center are assumed to be living within the EPZ. As such, 2,200 transients and 825 vehicles were assigned to this facility.

In addition to the major transient attractions within the SPS EPZ, the following smaller facilities are identified in the Newport News Radiological Emergency Response Plan:

Nicewood Park

Queen's Hithe

Potter's Field Historical Park The aerial imagery shows these smaller facilities have limited parking space, indicating the majority of the visitors are likely local residents who have already been counted as permanent residents in Section 3.1. As such, no transients were considered at these facilities in this study.

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Appendix E summarizes the transient data that was estimated for the EPZ. Table E-5 through Table E-7 present the number of transients visiting recreational areas, while Table E-8 presents the number of transients at lodging facilities within the EPZ.

In total, there are 61,790 transients in the EPZ at peak times, evacuating in 24,603 vehicles (an average vehicle occupancy of 2.51 transients per vehicle). Table 3-4 presents transient population and transient vehicle estimates by PAZ. Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 present these data by sector and distance from the plant.

3.4 Employees The estimate of employees commuting into the EPZ is based on the 2019 Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC) provided by the U.S. Census Bureau's OnTheMap Census analysis tool 2 extrapolated to 2020 using the short-term employment projection for the Commonwealth of Virginia 3, supplemented by data obtained from other sources, including Dominion, Fort Eustis OEM and York County.

The WAC data provides the employee counts by industry sector for each census block within the SPS EPZ. The employee count for each industry sector was then extrapolated to 2020 for each census block using commonwealth short-term employment projections. Since not all employees are working at facilities within the EPZ at one time, a maximum shift reduction was applied to each census block. Assuming maximum shift employment occurs Monday through Friday between 9 AM and 5 PM, the following jobs take place outside the typical 9-5 workday:

Manufacturing - takes place in shifts over 24 hours2.777778e-4 days 0.00667 hours 3.968254e-5 weeks 9.132e-6 months

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation - takes place in evenings and on weekends

Accommodations and Food Services - peaks in the evenings Therefore, the number of extrapolated employees working in these three industry sectors was subtracted from the total number for each census block to represent the maximum number of employees present in the EPZ at any one time. As per the NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, employers with 200 or more employees working in a single shift are considered to be the major employers. As such, the census blocks with less than 200 extrapolated employees (during the maximum shift) are not included in this study.

Employees who work within the EPZ fall into two categories:

Those who live and work in the EPZ

Those who live outside of the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ.

Those of the first category are already counted as part of the permanent resident population.

To avoid double counting, we focus only on those employees commuting from outside the EPZ who will evacuate along with the permanent resident population. The 2019 LEHD (Longitudinal 2 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/ OnTheMap is an interactive map displaying workplace and residential distributions by user-defined geographies at census block level detail. It also reports the work characteristics detail on age, and earnings by industry groups.

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Employer-Household Dynamics) Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data 4 from the OnTheMap website was then used to estimate the percent of employees that work within the EPZ but live outside. This value, 64.6%, was applied to the maximum shift employee values to compute the number of employees commuting into the EPZ at peak times. To estimate the evacuating employee vehicles, the employee vehicle occupancy rate (1.05 - See Appendix F, Sub-Section F.3.1) obtained from the demographic survey was used.

Note, the employment data for the following major employers were provided by local agencies:

Based on the employment data provided by Dominion, it is estimated that SPS has 812 employees during the maximum shift, and 649 of them live outside of the EPZ. Applying the commuter vehicle occupancy rate (1.05) above, there are 618 (649 + 1.05) employee vehicles. This data is supplemented for the census block in the Surry County employment subtotal in Appendix E, Table E-4.

According to the Fort Eustis OEM, there are 6,000 to 8,000 employees working at the post on workdays, and 30% of them live within the 10-mile EPZ. As such, the maximum number of employees during a single shift is 8,000, and the number of employees living outside of the EPZ is 5,600 (8,000 x (1 - 30%)). As per the Fort Eustis OEM, all employees commute to work in personal vehicles. As such, 1 employee per vehicle was used for Fort Eustis, resulting in 5,600 employee vehicles. This data is supplemented for the census block in the Newport News City employment subtotal in Appendix E, Table E-4.

As described in Section 3.1.2, the Yorktown Naval Weapons Station, Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center have approximately 2,000, 300 and 1,000 employees, respectively. Data for the number of employees living outside of the EPZ was unavailable. Thus, the percentage (70%) provided by Fort Eustis OEM was used for each military installation. As per York County OEM, employees have access to their own personal vehicles or assistance from co-workers for evacuation. Therefore, the commuter vehicle occupancy rate (1.05 employees per vehicle) was used to estimate the employee vehicles. In total, these three facilities have 2,310 ((2,000 + 300 + 1,000) x 70%) employees and 2,200 (2,310 + 1.05) vehicles commuting into the EPZ. This data is supplemented for the census block in the York County employment subtotal in Appendix E, Table E-4.

Table 3-5 presents the estimates of employees and employee vehicles commuting into the EPZ, by PAZ. Figure 3-8 and Figure 3-9 present these data by sector.

3.5 Medical Facilities Data for medical facilities was provided by the cities/counties within the EPZ, supplemented by internet searches where data was not provided. Since the average number of patients at the medical facilities fluctuates daily, the percent breakdown of ambulatory, wheelchair bound, and 4 The LODES data is part of the LEHD data products from the U.S. Census Bureau. This dataset provides detailed spatial distributions of workers' employment and residential locations and the relation between the two at the census block level. For detailed information, please refer to this site: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/

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bedridden patients was assumed to be 54.6%, 34.5%, and 10.9%, respectively, based on the previous ETE study for the facilities that the breakdown was missing. Table E-3 in Appendix E summarizes the data gathered. Table 3-6 presents the current census of medical facilities in the EPZ. As shown in these tables, there are total of 2,282 people has been identified as living in, or being treated in, in these facilities.

The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 3-6. The number and type of evacuating vehicles that need to be provided depend on the patients' state of health. It is estimated that buses can transport up to 30 people, wheelchair buses up to 12 people, and ambulances up to 2 people.

3.6 Transit Dependent Population The demographic survey {see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:

Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available

Those persons in households that do have vehicle{s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised In the latter group, the vehicle{s) may be used by a commuter{s) who does not return {or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 3-7 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:

Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren. For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren. The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates. However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session .

It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80% of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario 5 who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70% of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing.

We will adopt a conservative estimate that approximately 69% of transit dependent persons will ride share based on the results of the online demographic survey.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run . Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average {roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + {2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average 5 Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 6,600 people of a transit-dependent population of 8,600 people shared rides with other residents; a ride share rate of 77% (Page 5-10).

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load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68%. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 3-7 by 50%, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.

[20 + (~ X 10)] + 40 X 1.5 = 1.00 Table 3-7 indicates that transportation must be provided for 1,493 people. Therefore, a total of 50 buses are required from a capacity standpoint. In order to service all of the transit dependent population and have at least one bus drive through each of the PAZs picking up transit dependent people, 70 buses runs are used in the ETE calculations, {even though only 50 buses are needed from a capacity standpoint). These buses are represented as two vehicles in the ETE simulations due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.

To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the SPS EPZ:

n P =No.of HH x L{(%

i=O HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) - i]} x AiCi Where:

A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 62,956 X [(1.33 X 0.0127) + 0.1822 X (1.56 - 1) X 0.74 X 0.39

+ 0.4534 X (2.79 - 2) X (0.74 X 0.39) 2 ] = 4,796 B = ((1 - 0.69) X P) + 30 = 50 These calculations based on the demographic survey results are explained as follows:

The number of households {HH) is computed by dividing the EPZ population by the average household size {162,426 + 2.58) and is 62,956.

All members {1.33 avg.) of households {HH) with no vehicles {1.27%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share. The term 62,956 x 0.0127 x 1.33, accounts for these people.

The members of HH with 1 vehicle away {18.22%), who are at home, equal {1.56-1).

The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to {62,956 x 0.1822 x 0.56 x 0.74 x 0.39), as 74% of EPZ households have a commuter, 39% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.

The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away {45.34%), who are at home, equal

{2.79 - 2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 62,956 x 0.4534 x 0.79 x {0.74 x 0.39) 2

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public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).

Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.

The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.

The total number of buses needed is the product of the number of transit dependent people and one minus the ridesharing percentage {69%) divided by an average bus occupancy of 30 people per bus.

3.7 School and Day Care Centers (operated by schools) Population Demand Table 3-8 presents the school, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2020-2021 school year. Student enrollment data was provided by county/city emergency management agencies, and internet searches where data was not provided. The column in Table 3-8 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school/day care under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.

It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not school run and are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.

While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.

Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for elementary schools/ day care centers/day camps and 50 for middle/high schools.

Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.

No allowance is made for student absenteeism, which is typically 3% daily.

The cities/counties in the EPZ could introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated. In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities). Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents (although they are not advised to do so) can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

School buses are represented as two vehicles in the ETE simulation due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.

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3.8 Special Event One special event (Scenario 13) is considered for the ETE study - Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, the Jamestown Settlement and Colonial Williamsburg at capacity - which typically occurs on weekends throughout the summer based on discussions with city/county emergency management agencies. Aerial imagery from Google Earth was used to estimate the parking lot capacities of Busch Gardens and Water Country USA:

Busch Gardens - 7,000 parking spaces including the main lots (England, Germany, Ireland and Italy) and the overflow parking lots (Bavaria and Scotland)

Water Country USA - 2,500 parking spaces Based on discussions with the city/county emergency management agencies, these lots would be full on a holiday weekend, with approximately half (50%) of the visitors to these attractions being local EPZ residents. It is assumed that visitors to these attractions travel together as a family. Thus, the average vehicle occupancy is assumed to be the same as the EPZ household size (2.58 people) which was obtained from the demographic survey. Transient data for the Jamestown Settlement and Colonial Williamsburg was provided directly by city/county emergency management agencies. The number of visitors from outside the EPZ and their vehicles for the special event is summarized below:

Busch Gardens - 7,000 x 50% = 3,500 vehicles x 2.58 people per vehicle = 9,030 transients (the main parking lots on site and the overflow parking lots - Scotland Parking Lot and Bavaria Parking Lot - will be filled to capacity)

Water Country USA - 2,500 x 50% = 1,250 vehicles x 2.58 people per vehicles = 3,225 transients

Jamestown National Park and Settlement = 5,400 transients in 1,025 vehicles

Colonial Williamsburg= 2,200 transients in 825 vehicles Thus, there are a total of 19,855 transients and 6,600 transient vehicles at these transient attractions when they are operating at full capacity. As discussed in Section 6, a typical summer, weekend, midday has these facilities operating at about 75%. A special event summer, weekend, midday with ideal weather conditions would have these facilities operating at 100%.

Thus, the additional traffic for a special event is 25% of the capacity of these four facilities, which is equal to 4,964 people and 1,650 vehicles. In addition, the lodging facilities are considered to be at 50% for the special event versus 25% during a typical summer weekend midday, which attracts an additional 8,351 people evacuating in 3,627 vehicles.

Public transit is not considered in the evacuation of these facilities. There are no special traffic control measures to assist in the evacuation of these facilities.

3.9 Access and/or Functional Needs Population The following registration data for access and/or functional needs population who require transportation assistance to evacuate was provided by the cities/counties:

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Surry County - 43 people

Isle of Wight County - 2 people

York County - 264 people

City of Williamsburg - 24 people

TOTAL EPZ-350 people Details on the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden people were not available. Since the breakdown of access and/or functional needs population was not provided, the percentage of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden population was assumed to be 72.7%, 27.3%, and 0%, respectively, based on the previous ETE study. This results in 254 ambulatory persons that would require a bus to evacuate, 96 wheelchair-bound persons that would require a wheelchair bus/van to evacuate and O bedridden persons that would require an ambulance to evacuate. A total of 9 buses (capacity of 30 ambulatory persons per bus) and 8 wheelchair buses (capacity of 12 wheelchair bound persons per wheelchair bus) are needed from a capacity standpoint to evacuate the access and/or functional needs population.

Nonetheless, this study assumes that 25 buses each making about 10 stops to service 254 people and 16 wheelchair buses each making 6 stops to service 96 people will be deployed to evacuate the access and/or functional needs population in a reasonable amount of time.

Table 3-9 shows the total number of people registered for access and/or functional needs by type of need. The table also shows the transportation resources needed to evacuate these people in a timely manner. Buses and wheelchair buses needed to evacuate the access and/or functional needs population are represented as two passenger car equivalents in the ETE simulations due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.

3.10 Correctional Facilities As shown in Table E-9, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ - Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center and Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail. The total inmate population at these correctional facilities is 643 persons. As discussed in item 3b of Section 2.4, it is assumed that buses can accommodate 30 passengers per bus. A total of 22 buses {44 vehicles) are required to evacuate these inmates.

3.11 External Traffic Vehicles will be traveling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of an accident.

After the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) is announced, these through-travelers will also evacuate.

These through vehicles are assumed to travel on the major route traversing the EPZ -

lnterstate-64 {1-64). It is assumed that this traffic will continue to enter the EPZ during the first 120 minutes following the ATE.

Average Annual Daily Traffic {AADT) data was obtained from the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) 6 to estimate the number of vehicles per hour on the aforementioned 6 https://www.virginiadot.org/info/2019 traffic data by jurisdiction.asp Surry Power Station 3-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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route. The AADT was multiplied by the K-Factor, which is the proportion of the AADT on a roadway segment or link during the design hour, resulting in the design hour volume (DHV).

The design hour is usually the 30th highest hourly traffic volume of the year, measured in vehicles per hour (vph). The DHV is then multiplied by the D-Factor, which is the proportion of the DHV occurring in the peak direction of travel (also known as the directional split). The resulting values are the directional design hourly volumes (DDHV) and are presented in Table 3-

10. The DDHV is then multiplied by 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months (access control points - ACP - are assumed to be activated at 120 minutes after the ATE as per item 2 in Section 2.5) to estimate the total number of external vehicles loaded on the analysis network. As indicated, there are 15,472 vehicles entering the EPZ as external-external trips prior to the activation of the ACP and the diversion of this traffic. This number is reduced to 40% for evening scenarios (Scenarios 5 and

12) as discussed in Section 6.

3.12 Background Traffic Section 5 discusses the time needed for the people in the EPZ to mobilize and begin their evacuation trips. As shown in Table 5-9, there are 15 time periods during which traffic is loaded on to roadways in the study area to model the mobilization time of people in the EPZ. Note, there is no traffic generated during the 15th time period, as this time period is intended to allow traffic that has already begun evacuating to clear the study area boundaries.

This study does not assume that roadways are empty at the start of the evacuation (Time Period 1). Rather, there is an initialization time period (often referred to as "fill time" in traffic simulation) wherein the anticipated traffic volumes from the start of the evacuation are loaded onto roadways in the study area. The amount of initialization/fill traffic that is on the roadways in the study area at the start of evacuation depends on the scenario and the region being evacuated (see Section 6). There are approximately 5,000 vehicles on the roadways in the study area at the end of fill time for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 (summer, midweek, midday, good weather) conditions.

3.13 Summary of Demand A summary of population and vehicle demand is provided in Table 3-11 and Table 3-12, respectively. This summary includes all population groups described in this section. A total of 317,710 people and 166,865 vehicles are considered in this study.

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Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population PAZ 2010 Population 2020 Population 1 244 208 2 884 791 3 514 429 4 236 229 5 618 611 6 177 194 7 262 257 8 0 10 9 603 581 10 200 199 11 82 92 12 95 79 13 1,167 1,162 14 5,914 5,200 15 25,003 25,581 16 45,649 46,181 17 1,974 2,504 18A 1,374 1,360 18B 4,153 4,318 18C 3,960 4,096 18D 71 77 19A 6,214 6,531 19B 1,033 1,520 20A 877 1,711 20B 2,521 2,385 21 13,384 15,374 22A 1,305 1,649 22B 3,460 3,667 23 19,627 23,191 24 11,076 12,239 EPZ TOTAL 152,677 162,426 EPZ Population Growth (2010-2020): 6.39%

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Table 3-2. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by PAZ 2020 PAZ 2020 Population Resident Vehicles 1 208 119 2 791 451 3 429 245 4 229 130 5 611 348 6 194 111 7 257 147 8 10 6 9 581 333 10 199 114 11 92 52 12 79 46 13 1,162 664 14 5,200 1,879 15 25,581 14,554 16 46,181 26,261 17 2,504 1,428 18A 1,360 776 18B 4,318 2,428 lSC 4,096 2,080 18D 77 44 19A 6,531 3,710 19B 1,520 866 20A 1,711 951 20B 2,385 1,359 21 15,374 5,966 22A 1,649 940 22B 3,667 2,063 23 23,191 12,892 24 12,239 6,884 EPZ TOTAL 162,426 87,847 Surry Power Station 3-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by Sector Sector 2020 Population Evacuating Vehicles N 3,223 1,835 NNE 1,762 1,003 NE 6,853 3,902 ENE 8,888 4,856 E 24,307 13,626 ESE 64,038 34,322 SE 3,235 1,847 SSE 10,554 5,966 s 1,412 805 SSW 402 232 SW 489 277 WSW 371 210 w 313 182 WNW 199 115 NW 66 38 NNW 13,538 7,696 TOTAL 139,650 76,912 Surry Power Station 3-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 3-4. Summary of Transients and Transient Vehicles PAZ Transients Transient Vehicles 1 0 0 2 137 57 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 970 326 6 34 13 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 10 0 0 11 0 0 12 0 0 13 0 0 14 1,172 497 15 355 146 16 3,178 1,330 17 0 0 18A 1,392 605 18B 11,993 4,600 18C 45 25 18D 0 0 19A 6,513 2,563 19B 0 0 20A 10,130 4,545 20B 608 279 21 12,353 5,278 22A 1,056 190 22B 84 39 23 5,047 2,119 24 6,723 1,991 EPZ TOTAL 61,790 24,603 Surry Power Station 3-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 3-5. Summary of Employees and Employee Vehicles Commuting into the EPZ PAZ Employees Employee Vehicles 1 271 258 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 649 618 9 0 0 10 0 0 11 0 0 12 0 0 13 0 0 14 5,600 5,600 15 1,037 988 16 1,866 1,777 17 0 0 18A 0 0 18B 1,122 1,069 18C 0 0 18D 822 783 19A 166 158 19B 0 0 20A 158 150 20B 910 867 21 2,606 2,483 22A 0 0 22B 295 281 23 2,380 2,266 24 133 127 EPZ TOTAL 18,015 17,425 Surry Power Station 3-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 3-6. Medical Facility Transit Demand Estimates Wheel- Wheel-Current Ambu- chair Bed- chair Bus Ambulance PAZ Facility Name Capacity Census latory Bound ridden Bus Runs Runs Runs y

15 Community Alternative N/A7 15 Campbell House N/A 7 15 Mennowood Retirement Community 90 83 45 29 9 2 3 5 16 Sacred hearts Ministry N/A 7 16 Disabled Veterans Meeting Hall N/A7 16 Serenity House, Trust House N/A7 16 ARC Peninsula Saddler Home Inc N/A7 16 Serenity House N/A 7 16 Mile-A-Way Adult Home N/A 7 16 Charter Senior Living of Newport News 110 101 55 35 11 2 3 6 188 Morningside of Williamsburg 86 62 2 30 30 1 3 15 18C Colonial Manor Senior Community 85 64 30 30 4 1 3 2 20A Commonwealth Senior Living 195 102 75 25 2 3 3 1 20A Verena At The Reserve 210 152 146 6 0 5 1 0 21 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg 40 37 20 13 4 1 2 2 21 Envoy of Williamsburg 150 150 0 130 20 0 11 10 21 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg so so 46 4 0 2 1 0 21 Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg 90 75 65 10 0 3 1 0 228 Williamsburg Landing 193 128 90 33 5 3 3 3 23 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg 338 284 241 34 9 9 3 5 23 WindsorMeade Williamsburg 54 33 11 22 0 1 2 0 23 Edgeworth Park at New Town 83 78 58 20 0 2 2 0 23 Eastern State Hospital 300 265 215 20 30 8 2 15 23 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place 57 52 28 18 6 1 2 3 24 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus 48 11 5 6 0 1 1 0 24 Consulate Health Care 90 87 0 43 44 0 4 22 24 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg 490 440 374 so 16 as 5 8 TOTAL: 2,789 2,282 1,521 568 193 46 56 99 7 Data for small adult care homes/group homes is unavailable. It is assumed residents will evacuate in personal vehicles.

8 According to the facility, Independent Living residents are tasked with the responsibility of self-evacuation and/or assisting other Independent Living residents with evacuating in their private vehicles.

Surry Power Station 3-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 3-7. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Survey Average HH Percent Size Survey Percent HH Survey Total People Population with Indicated No. Estimated with Indicated No. of Percent HH Survey Percent HH People Estimated Requiring Requiring 2020 EPZ of Vehicles No. of Vehicles with with Non-Returning Requiring Ridesharing Public Public Population 0 1 2 Households 0 1 2 Commuters Commuters Transport Percentage Transit Transit

. '* 62,956 111111111111 74% 39% 68.86%

Surry Power Station 3-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 3-8. School, Day Care Center and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates Buses PAZ School Name Enrollment Required SCHOOLS 14 General Stanford Elementary School 482 7 15 Sanford Elementary School 509 8 15 Warwick River Christian School 152 3 15 First Baptist Church Denbigh 48 1 15 BC Charles Elementary School 379 6 15 Menchville High School 1,699 34 15 Jenkins Elementary School 478 7 16 Katherine Johnson Elementary School 518 8 16 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School 445 7 16 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 1,096 22 16 David A Dutrow Elementary School 454 7 16 Mary Passage Middle School 990 20 16 Stoney Run Elementary School 482 7 16 Denbigh High School 1,159 24 16 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy 29 1 16 George J McIntosh Elementary 442 7 16 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School 570 9 16 Woodside High School 1,684 34 16 Richneck Elementary School 597 9 18D James River Elementary School 393 6 19A Magruder Elementary School 598 9 20A Waller Mill Elementary School 344 5 20A Bruton High School 603 13 20B Queens Lake Middle School 527 11 21 Walsingham Academy (Lower School) 318 5 21 Walsingham Academy (Upper School) 243 5 21 College of William and Mary 8,200 21 21 Matthew Whaley Elementary School 471 7 21 Berkeley Middle School 829 17 21 James Blair Middle School 550 11 22B Laurel Lane Elementary School 391 6 23 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School 419 6 23 DJ Montague Elementary School 441 7 24 Jamestown High School 1,202 25 24 Providence Classical School 195 4 24 Matoaka Elementary School 627 9 School Subtotal: 28,564 388 Surry Power Station 3-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0

Buses PAZ Day Care/Day Camp Name Enrollment Required DAY CARE CENTERS AND DAY CAMPS 15 The Garden of Children Ltd 175 09 15 Light Of Hope Community Church 210 09 15 Sanford School Age Program 70 1 15 Denbigh Early Childhood Center 70 1 15 Denbigh Head Start Center 18 1 15 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 72 2 15 Warwick River Mennonite Church 255 09 15 New Beech Grove Baptist Church 52 09 15 Christ Community Outreach Center 99 09 15 Colonial Baptist Church 40 09 15 Village Restoration 18 09 15 God's Way Christian Academy 50 09 15 First Baptist Church Denbigh Child Development Center 260 09 15 B.C. Charles School Age Program 90 2 15 Beginnings Academy of Learning, LLC 99 09 15 Peninsula Pentecostals 80 09 15 Second Presbyterian Church 60 09 15 Jenkins School Age Program 70 1 15 Reformation Lutheran Church 80 09 16 Living Waters Christian Fellowship Church 44 09 16 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program 90 2 16 Nelson School Age Program 70 1 16 A Heavenly Haven Child Development Center 99 09 16 Kiddy City Daycare 82 09 16 Girls Inc. @ Cypress Terrace 31 09 16 Toddler Station# Iv, Inc. 100 09 16 Mary Passage School Age Program 70 1 16 Epes School Age Program 90 2 16 Holy Tabernacle Christian Child Development Center 94 09 16 Holy Tabernacle Church Of Deliverance 23 09 16 Denbigh Presbyterian Church 80 09 16 Stepping Stones Child Development Center 70 09 16 Mcintosh School Age Program 70 1 16 Greenwood School Age Program 90 2 16 Richneck School Age Program 70 1 16 Kids Are People Too Childcare Center 77 09 16 Denbigh Christian Academy 370 09 18C Gilead Christian Academy 15 09 18C Grove ABC Day Care 26 09 9 It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.

Surry Power Station 3-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Buses PAZ Day Care Name Enrollment Required 19A York County Head Start 117 2 20A Lea RN Lily Child Development Center 60 09 21 Williamsburg Campus Child Care 77 09 22B La Petite Academy #898 73 09 23 King's Way Church/Greenwood Christian 162 09 23 Childcare Network 172 09 23 New Town United Methodist Church 80 09 23 The Goddard School 135 09 23 King of Glory Lutheran Church 120 09 23 La Petite Academy #965 35 09 24 4-H Camp 350 1510 24 The Kensington School 200 09 Day Care Center and Day Camp Subtotal: 5,110 35 GRAND TOTAL: 33,674 423 Table 3-9. Access and/or Functional Needs Demand Summary Population Group Population Vehicles deployed Passenger Car Equivalents Buses 254 25 50 Wheelchair Buses 96 16 32 Ambulances 0 0 0 Total: 350 41 82 10 This facility will evacuate in 15 buses according to James City County.

Surry Power Station 3-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0

Table 3-10. SPS External Traffic Upstream Downstream Hourly External Node Node Road Name Direction AADT 11 K-Factor 12 D-Factor12 Volume Traffic 8009 1612 1-64 West 85,000 0.091 0.5 3,868 7,736 8029 1198 1-64 East 85,000 0.091 0.5 3,868 7,736 TOTAL 15,472 11 https://www.virqiniadot.org/info/2019 traffic data by jurisdiction.asp 12 Highway Capacity Manual 2016 Surry Power Station 3-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 3-11. Summary of Population Demand 13*14 Schools, Day Care On- Off-Transit- Centers, Special Lodging Medical Campus Campus Shadow External PAZ Residents Dependent Transients Employees Day Camps Event15 Facilities Facilities Students Students Population 16 Traffic Total 1 208 2 0 271 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 481 2 791 7 137 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 935 3 429 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 433 4 229 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 231 5 611 6 970 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,587 6 194 2 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 7 257 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 259 8 10 1 0 649 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 660 9 581 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 586 10 199 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 201 11 92 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 93 12 79 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 13 1,162 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,173 14 5,200 48 228 5,600 2,382 17 0 944 28 0 0 0 0 14,430 15 25,581 235 355 1,037 5,133 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 32,424 16 46,181 422 2,191 1,866 10,086 0 987 101 0 0 0 0 61,834 17 2,504 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,527 18A 1,360 13 0 0 0 0 1,392 0 0 0 0 0 2,765 188 4,318 40 664 1,122 0 9,030 2,299 62 0 0 0 0 17,535 18C 4,096 38 45 0 41 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 4,284 180 77 1 0 822 393 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,293 19A 6,531 60 275 166 715 3,225 3,013 0 0 0 0 0 13,985 198 1,520 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,534 20A 1,711 16 300 158 1,007 0 9,830 254 0 0 0 0 13,276 208 2,385 22 608 910 527 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,452 13 Since the spatial distribution of the access and/or functional needs population is unknown, they are not included in this table.

14 Total transients in the EPZ are the sum of transients, special event, and lodging facilities (61 ,790 transients).

15 Special Event includes Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement, and Colonial Williamsburg 16 Shadow population has been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information .

17 Includes 1,900 students at Fort Eustis.

Surry Power Station 3-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Schools, Day Care On- Off-Transit- Centers, Special Lodging Medical Campus Campus Shadow External PAZ Residents Dependent Transients Employees Day Camps Event 15 Facilities Facilities Students Students Population 16 Traffic Total 21 15,374 141 572 2,606 10,688 2,200 9,581 312 4,428 3,772 0 0 49,674 22A 1,649 15 0 0 0 1,056 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,720 228 3,667 34 0 295 464 0 84 128 0 0 0 0 4,672 23 23,191 213 741 2,380 1,564 0 4,306 712 0 0 0 0 33,107 24 12,239 112 1,413 133 2,574 4,344 966 538 0 0 0 0 22,319 Shadow Region 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27,930 0 27,930 Total 162,426 1,493 8,533 18,015 35,574 19,855 33,402 2,282 4,428 3,772 27,930 0 317,710 Surry Power Station 3-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 3-12. Summary of Vehicle Demand 18*19 Schools, Day Care On- Off-Transit- Centers, Special Lodging Medical Campus Campus Shadow External PAZ Residents Dependent20 Transients Employees Day Camps Event Facilities Facilities21 Students Students Population 22 Traffic Total 1 119 2 0 258 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 2 451 2 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 510 3 245 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 247 4 130 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 132 5 348 2 326 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 676 6 111 2 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 126 7 147 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 149 8 6 2 0 618 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 626 9 333 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 335 10 114 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 116 11 52 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 12 46 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 13 664 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 666 14 1,879 4 131 5,600 102 23 0 366 6 0 0 0 0 8,088 15 14,554 16 146 988 134 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 15,853 16 26,261 30 868 1,777 330 0 462 16 0 0 0 0 29,744 17 1,428 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,430 18A 776 2 0 0 0 0 605 0 0 0 0 0 1,383 18B 2,428 4 280 1,069 0 3,500 820 23 0 0 0 0 8,124 lSC 2,080 4 25 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 2,119 18D 44 2 0 783 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 841 19A 3,710 4 106 158 22 1,250 1207 0 0 0 0 0 6,457 19B 866 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 868 18 Since the spatial distribution of the access and/or functional needs population is unknown, vehicles needed to evacuate access and/or functional needs population are not included in this table.

19 Total transient vehicles in the EPZ are the sum of transients, special event, and lodging facilities (24,603 vehicles).

20 Buses (including transit-dependent buses and school buses) represented as two passenger vehicles. Refer to Section 3.6 and Section 8 for additional information.

21 Vehicles for medical facilities include wheelchair buses, ambulances and buses. Buses and wheelchair buses are represented as two passenger vehicles. Refer to Section 8 for additional information.

22 Shadow vehicles have been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information.

23 Includes 44 buses (88 vehicles) for students at Fort Eustis.

Surry Power Station 3-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Schools, Day Care On- Off-Transit- Centers, Special Lodging Medical Campus Campus Shadow External PAZ Residents Dependent20 Transients Employees Day Camps Event Facilities Facilities21 Students Students Population 22 Traffic Total 20A 951 2 150 150 36 0 4395 25 0 0 0 0 5,709 20B 1,359 2 279 867 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,529 21 5,966 10 244 2,483 132 825 4209 54 2,435 2,324 0 0 18,682 22A 940 2 0 0 0 190 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,132 22B 2,063 4 0 281 12 0 39 15 0 0 0 0 2,414 23 12,892 16 305 2,266 26 0 1814 87 0 0 0 0 17,406 24 6,884 8 564 127 106 835 592 52 0 0 0 0 9,168 Shadow Region 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15,382 15,472 30,854 Total 87,847 140 3,494 17,425 934 6,600 14,509 303 2,435 2,324 15,382 15,472 166,865 Surry Power Station 3-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Cht1rles City Cot1nty I

Oaremont I I

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'- _, 2, 5, 10 Mi le Rings 2.5 Figure 3-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station 3-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

N NNW NNE

!18,527!

~ ~

NW

. NE

!13,360! will WNW I ENE I 529 I I ' ~

I I

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[ill] s [ml N l1iliJ 2020 Permanent Resident Population Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1 2 2 1*2 46 48 2-3 152 200 3-4 1,086 1,286 w E 4.5 3,669 4,955 5-6 9866 14,821 6-7 19027 33,848 7-8 35,074 6s,9n 8-9 34,091 103,013 9-10 36;768. 139,781 10* EPZ 22,645 162,426 Inset Total: :1.62,426 O* 2 MIies s Figure 3-2. Permanent Resident Population by Sector Surry Power Station 3-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW NNE lS,143 !

!16,3731 Is,579 I NW ,,

,, ,,.., .,,,,.\- 10

.... '7 .... ...

. ... . NE

!7,509 ! ,

11,nol WNW I ENE

\

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Resident Vehicles Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1 1 1 1*2 27 28 2-3 87 115 3-4 588 703 w E 4.5 2,093 2,796 5-6 5,386 8,182 6-7 9475 17,657 7-8 17,369 35,026 8-9 19,163 54,189 9-10 ZQ,763 74,952 10* EPZ 12,895 87,847 Inset Total: 87,847 O* 2 MIies s Figure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station 3-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW 13,223 1 NNE 1,762 NW NE 66 WNW ENE 199 1 s,sss 1 w E EPZ Resident Population 313 68 See Figure 3-2 124,307 I I

WSW ' ;

ESE 371 .... 164,038 I SW SE 489 1 3,23s 1 190 ; .:: Ef>Z Boundary to 11 Miles SSW 402 s 11,412 1 2020 Shadow Population Miles Subtotal bv Rin2 Cumulative Total EPZ* 11 8,683 8,683 11-12 19,414 28,097 12-13 34,966 63,063 13-14 39,972 103,035 14-15 36,615 139,650 Total: 139,650 Figure 3-4. Shadow Population by Sector Surry Power Station 3-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW 11,83s 1 NNE 1,003 NW NE 38 WNW 115 - ENE 14,856 1 w E 182 40 EPZ Resident Vehicles See Figure 3-3 I13,626 I WSW ESE 210 134,322 I SW SE 277 11,847 1 109 ; .:: EPZ Boundary to 11 Miles SSW 232 s 805 Shadow Vehicles Miles Subtotal bv Rin2 Cumulative Total EPZ* 11 4,797 4,797 11-12 10,954 15,751 12-13 19,708 35,459 13-14 20,772 56,231 14-15 20,681 76,912 Total: 76,912 Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station 3-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW NNE

~2,3941 I

!6,412

., - -\- 300 - ...

119,3141 NW . "" ... NE 17,305 I OD WNW I ENE

\

I 474 I I 129

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Transients Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1 0 0 1*2 0 0 2-3 970 970 3-4 0 970 w E 4.5 2,071 3,041 5-6 11,029 14,070 6-7 8,567 22,637 7-8 16,441 39,078 8-9 14,178 53,256 9-10 5,028. 58,284 10-EPZ 3,506 61,790 Inset Total: 61790 O* 2 MIies s Figure 3-6. Transient Population by Sector Surry Power Station 3-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW NNE 19,847 I I I

!2,679

. ., - -\- ISO - ...

17,502 NW . ,,

"" ... NE I1,987 I OD WNW I ENE

\

I 194 I I 50

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Transient Vehicles Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1 0 0 1*2 0 0 2-3 326 326 3-4 0 326 w E 4.5 727 1,053 5-6 4,152 5,205 6-7 2,576 7,781 7-8 6;839 14,620 8-9 6,433 21,053 9-10 2,101 23,154 10-EPZ 1,449 24,603 Inset Total: 24603 0* 2 MIies s Figure 3-7. Transient Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station 3-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW NNE

!3,146 !

12,6.62 I 11,6&6 I NW ,,

,, ,,.., .,,,,.\- 0

.... '7 .... ...

. ... . NE

[ill]

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!6,066 I l ,..

l -

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[ill] ' I [Diill

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~ s I o I N

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Employees Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1 649 649 1-2 0 649 2-3 0 649 3-4 0 649 w E 4-5 0 649 5-6 2,239 2,888 6-7 7,500 10,388 7-8 932 11,320 8-9 3,892 15,212 9-10 2,113 17,325 10* EPZ 690 18,01.5 Inset Total: 18,015 O* 2 MIies s Figure 3-8. Employee Population by Sector Surry Power Station 3-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

N NNW NNE

!2,997 !

!2,535 I 11,606 I NW ,,

,, ,,.., .,,,,.\- 0

.... '7 .... ...

. ... . NE

[ill]

I o I WNW I ENE

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will

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I w E IT]: 0 0 I

!6,044 I l ,..

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Employee Vehicles Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1 618 618 1-2 0 618 2-3 0 618 3-4 0 618 w E 4-5 0 618 5-6 2;133 2,751 6-7 7.409 10,160 7-8 887 11,047 8-9 3,708 14,755 9-10 2,013 16,768 10* EPZ 657 17,42.5 Inset Total: 17,425 0* 2 MIies s Figure 3-9. Employee Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station 3-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.a

4 ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY The ability of the road network to service vehicle demand is a major factor in determining how rapidly an evacuation can be completed. The capacity of a road is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a lane of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic, and control conditions, as stated in the 2016 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016). This section discusses how the capacity of the roadway network was estimated.

In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to reflect the range of traffic operational characteristics. These designations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition. LOS E describes traffic operating at or near capacity.

Another concept, closely associated with capacity, is "Service Volume". Service volume (SV) is defined as "The maximum hourly rate at which vehicles, bicycles or persons reasonably can be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a roadway during an hour under specific assumed conditions while maintaining a designated level of service." This definition is similar to that for capacity. The major distinction is that values of SV vary from one LOS to another, while capacity is the SV at the upper bound of LOS E, only.

Thus, in simple terms, an SV is the maximum traffic that can travel on a road and still maintain a certain perceived level of quality to a driver based on the A, B, C, rating system (LOS). Any additional vehicles above the SV would drop the rating to a lower letter grade.

This distinction is illustrated in Exhibit 12-37 of the HCM 2016. As indicated there, the SV varies with Free Flow Speed (FFS), and LOS. The SV is calculated by the DYNEV II simulation model, based on the specified link attributes, FFS, capacity, control device and traffic demand.

Other factors also influence capacity. These include, but are not limited to:

Lane width

Shoulder width

Pavement condition

Horizontal and vertical alignment (curvature and grade)

Percent truck traffic

Control device (and timing, if it is a signal)

Weather conditions (good, rain, snow, fog, wind speed)

These factors are considered during the road survey and in the capacity estimation process; some factors have greater influence on capacity than others. For example, lane and shoulder width have only a limited influence on Base Free Flow Speed (BFFS 1 ) according to Exhibit 15-7 of the HCM 2016. Consequently, lane and shoulder widths at the narrowest points were observed during the road survey and these observations were recorded, but no detailed 1 A very rough estimate of BFFS might be taken as the posted speed limit plus 10 mph (HCM 2016 Page 15-15)

Surry Power Station 4-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

measurements of lane or shoulder width were taken. Horizontal and vertical alignment can influence both FFS and capacity. The estimated FFS were measured using the survey vehicle's speedometer and observing local traffic, under free flow conditions. Free flow speeds ranged from 15 to 75 mph in the study area. Capacity is estimated from the procedures of the HCM 2016. For example, HCM Exhibit 7-l(b) shows the sensitivity of SV at the upper bound of LOS D to grade (capacity is the SV at the upper bound of LOS E).

The amount of traffic that can flow on a roadway is effectively governed by vehicle speed and spacing. The faster that vehicles can travel when closely spaced, the higher the amount of flow.

As discussed in Section 2.6, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent the prevailing conditions. Adverse conditions like inclement weather, construction, and other incidents tend to slow traffic down and often, also increase vehicle-to-vehicles separation, thus decreasing the amount of traffic flow. Based on limited empirical data, conditions such as rain reduce the values of free-flow speed and of highway capacity by approximately 10%. Over the last decade new studies have been made on the effects of rain on traffic capacity. These studies indicate a range of effects between 5% and 25% depending on wind speed and precipitation rates. As indicated in Section 2.6, we employ, a reduction in free speed and in highway capacity of 10%

for rain/light snow. The free speed and highway capacity reductions are 15% and 25%,

respectively, during heavy snow conditions.

Since congestion arising from evacuation may be significant, estimates of roadway capacity must be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the major factors that influence highway capacity is presented in this section.

Rural highways generally consist of: (1) one or more uniform sections with limited access (driveways, parking areas) characterized by "uninterrupted" flow; and (2) approaches to at-grade intersections where flow can be "interrupted" by a control device or by turning or crossing traffic at the intersection. Due to these differences, separate estimates of capacity must be made for each section. Often, the approach to the intersection is widened by the addition of one or more lanes (turn pockets or turn bays), to compensate for the lower capacity of the approach due to the factors there that can interrupt the flow of traffic. These additional lanes are recorded during the field survey and later entered as input to the DYNEV II system.

4.1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck locations under local heavy traffic volume conditions. This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, control at critical intersections will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that purpose, whose directions may supersede traffic control devices. See Appendix G for more information.

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The per-lane capacity of an approach to a signalized intersection can be expressed (simplistically) in the following form:

Qcap,m = (3600) h,,i X (G-C-- L)m = (3600) hm X Pm where:

acap,m = Capacity of a single lane of traffic on an approach, which executes movement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph) hm = Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on this lane that are executing movement, m; seconds per vehicle G = Mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles that are executing movement, m, for each signal cycle; seconds L = Mean "lost time" for each signal phase servicing movement, m; seconds C = Duration of each signal cycle; seconds Pm = Proportion of GREEN time allocated for vehicles executing movement, m, from this lane. This value is specified as part of the control treatment.

m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the intersection: through, left-turn, right-turn, and diagonal.

The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway hm, depends in a complex way upon many factors: roadway geometrics, turn percentages, the extent of conflicting traffic streams, the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of "saturation queue discharge headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles that are not impeded by other conflicting traffic streams. This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior.

Formally, we can write, where:

hsat = Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicle

= The various known factors influencing hm fm(} = Complex function relating hm to the known (or estimated) values of hsat, F1, F2, ...

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The estimation of hm for specified values of hsat, F1, F2, ... is undertaken within the DYNEV II simulation model by a mathematical model 2. The resulting values for hm always satisfy the condition:

That is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always greater than, or equal to the saturation discharge headway for through vehicles. These headways (or its inverse equivalent, "saturation flow rate"), may be determined by observation or using the procedures of the HCM 2016.

The above discussion is necessarily brief given the scope of this evacuation time estimate (ETE) report and the complexity of the subject of intersection capacity. In fact, Chapters 19, 20 and 21 in the HCM 2016 address this topic. The factors, F1, F2, ... , influencing saturation flow rate are identified in equation (19-8) of the HCM 2016.

The traffic signals within the EPZ and Shadow Region are modeled using representative phasing plans and phase durations obtained as part of the field data collection. Traffic responsive signal installations allow the proportion of green time allocated (Pm) for each approach to each intersection, to be determined by the expected traffic volumes on each approach during evacuation circumstances. The amount of green time (G) allocated is subject to maximum and minimum phase duration constraints; 2 seconds of yellow time are indicated for each signal phase and 1 second of all-red time is assigned between signal phases, typically. If a signal is pre-timed, the yellow and all-red times observed during the road survey are used. A lost time (L) of 2.0 seconds is used for each signal phase in the analysis.

4.2 Capacity Estimation along Sections of Highway The capacity of highway sections -- as distinct from approaches to intersections -- is a function of roadway geometrics, traffic composition (e.g., percent heavy trucks and buses in the traffic stream) and, of course, motorist behavior. There is a fundamental relationship which relates SV (i.e., the number of vehicles serviced within a uniform highway section in a given time period) to traffic density. The top curve in Figure 4-1 illustrates this relationship.

As indicated, there are two flow regimes: (1) Free Flow (left side of curve); and (2) Forced Flow (right side). In the Free Flow regime, the traffic demand is fully serviced; the SV increases as demand volume and density increase, until the SV attains its maximum value, which is the capacity of the highway section. As traffic demand and the resulting highway density increase beyond this "critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e., the SV) can actually decline below capacity ("capacity drop"). Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e., when demand exceeds capacity), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, VF, under congested conditions.

2 Lieberman, E., "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection", McShane, W. & Lieberman, E.,

"Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach". Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. Lieberman, E., Xin, W., "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling for Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 22-26, 2012.

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The value of VF can be expressed as:

VF= Rx Capacity where:

R = Reduction factor which is less than unity We have employed a value of R=0.90. The advisability of such a capacity reduction factor is based upon empirical studies that identified a fall-off in the service flow rate when congestion occurs at "bottlenecks" or "choke points" on a freeway system. Zhang and Levinson 3 describe a research program that collected data from a computer-based surveillance system (loop detectors) installed on the Interstate Highway System, at 27 active bottlenecks in the twin cities metro area in Minnesota over a 7-week period. When flow breakdown occurs, queues are formed which discharge at lower flow rates than the maximum capacity prior to observed breakdown. These queue discharge flow (QDF) rates vary from one location to the next and also vary by day of week and time of day based upon local circumstances. The cited reference presents a mean QDF of 2,016 passenger cars per hour per lane (pcphpl). This figure compares with the nominal capacity estimate of 2,250 pcphpl estimated for the ETE. The ratio of these two numbers is 0.896 which translates into a capacity reduction factor of 0.90.

Since the principal objective of ETE analyses is to develop a "realistic" estimate of evacuation times, use of the representative value for this capacity reduction factor (R=0.90) is justified. This factor is applied only when flow breaks down, as determined by the simulation model.

Rural roads, like freeways, are classified as "uninterrupted flow" facilities. (This is in contrast with urban street systems which have closely spaced signalized intersections and are classified as "interrupted flow" facilities.) As such, traffic flow along rural roads is subject to the same effects as freeways in the event traffic demand exceeds the nominal capacity, resulting in queuing and lower QDF rates. As a practical matter, rural roads rarely break down at locations away from intersections. Any breakdowns on rural roads are generally experienced at intersections where other model logic applies, or at lane drops which reduce capacity there.

Therefore, the application of a factor of 0.90 is appropriate on rural roads, but rarely, if ever, activated.

The estimated value of capacity is based primarily upon the type of facility and on roadway geometrics. Sections of roadway with adverse geometrics are characterized by lower free-flow speeds and lane capacity. Exhibit 15-46 in the HCM 2016 was referenced to estimate saturation flow rates. The impact of narrow lanes and shoulders on free-flow speed and on capacity is not material, particularly when flow is predominantly in one direction as is the case during an evacuation.

The procedure used here was to estimate "section" capacity, VE, based on observations made traveling over each section of the evacuation network, based on the posted speed limits and travel behavior of other motorists and by reference to the HCM 2016. The DYNEV II simulation model determines for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its 3 Lei Zhang and David Levinson, "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004.

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capacity would be limited by the "section-specific" service volume, VE, or by the intersection-specific capacity. For each link, the model selects the lower value of capacity.

4.3 Application to the SPS Study Area As part of the development of the link-node analysis network for the study area, an estimate of roadway capacity is required. The source material for the capacity estimates presented herein is contained in:

2016 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016)

Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington, D.C.

The highway system in the study area consists primarily of three categories of roads and, of course, intersections:

Two-Lane roads: Local, State

Multilane Highways (at-grade)

Freeways Each of these classifications will be discussed.

4.3.1 Two-Lane Roads Ref: HCM 2016 Chapter 15 Two lane roads comprise the majority of highways within the study area. The per-lane capacity of a two-lane highway is estimated at 1,700 passenger cars per hour (pc/h). This estimate is essentially independent of the directional distribution of traffic volume except that, for extended distances, the two-way capacity will not exceed 3,200 pc/h. The HCM 2016 procedures then estimate LOS and Average Travel Speed. The DYNEV II simulation model accepts the specified value of capacity as input and computes average speed based on the time-varying demand: capacity relations.

Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation scenarios:

Most sections of two-lane roads within the study area is classified as "Class I", with "level terrain"; some are "rolling terrain".

"Class II" highways are mostly those within urban and suburban centers.

4.3.2 Multilane Highway Ref: HCM 2016 Chapter 12 Exhibit 12-8 of the HCM 2016 presents a set of curves that indicate a per-lane capacity ranging from approximately 1,900 to 2,300 pc/h, for free-speeds of 45 to 70 mph, respectively. Based on observation, the multilane highways outside of urban areas within the study area, service Surry Power Station 4-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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traffic with free-speeds in this range. The actual time-varying speeds computed by the simulation model reflect the demand and capacity relationship and the impact of control at intersections. A conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 1,900 pc/h is adopted for this study for multi lane highways outside of urban areas.

4.3.3 Freeways Ref: HCM 2016 Chapters 10, 12, 13, 14 Chapter 10 of the HCM 2016 describes a procedure for integrating the results obtained in Chapters 12, 13 and 14, which compute capacity and LOS for freeway components. Chapter 10 also presents a discussion of simulation models. The DYNEV II simulation model automatically performs this integration process.

Chapter 12 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for "Basic Freeway Segments". Exhibit 12-37 of the HCM 2016 presents capacity vs. free speed estimates, which are provided below.

Free Speed (mph): 55 60 65 70+

Per-Lane Capacity (pc/h): 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 The inputs to the simulation model are highway geometrics, free-speeds and capacity based on field observations. The simulation logic calculates actual time-varying speeds based on demand:

capacity relationships. A conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 2,250 pc/h is adopted for this study for freeways.

Chapter 13 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacity, speed, density and LOS for freeway weaving sections. The simulation model contains logic that relates speed to demand volume: capacity ratio. The value of capacity obtained from the computational procedures detailed in Chapter 13 depends on the "Type" and geometrics of the weaving segment and on the "Volume Ratio" (ratio of weaving volume to total volume).

Chapter 14 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacities of ramps and of "merge" areas. There are three significant factors to the determination of capacity of a ramp-freeway junction: The capacity of the freeway immediately downstream of an on-ramp or immediately upstream of an off-ramp; the capacity of the ramp roadway; and the maximum flow rate entering the ramp influence area. In most cases, the freeway capacity is the controlling factor. Values of this merge area capacity are presented in Exhibit 14-10 of the HCM 2016 and depend on the number of freeway lanes and on the freeway free speed. Ramp capacity is presented in Exhibit 14-12 and is a function of the ramp FFS. The DYNEV II simulation model logic simulates the merging operations of the ramp and freeway traffic in accord with the procedures in Chapter 14 of the HCM 2016. If congestion results from an excess of demand relative to capacity, then the model allocates service appropriately to the two entering traffic streams and produces LOS F conditions (The HCM 2016 does not address LOS F explicitly).

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4.3.4 Intersections Ref: HCM 2016 Chapters 19, 20, 21, 22 Procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for approaches to intersections are presented in Chapter 19 (signalized intersections), Chapters 20, 21 (un-signalized intersections) and Chapter 22 (roundabouts). The complexity of these computations is indicated by the aggregate length of these chapters. The DYNEV II simulation logic is likewise complex.

The simulation model explicitly models intersections: Stop/yield controlled intersections (both 2-way and all-way) and traffic signal controlled intersections. Where intersections are controlled by fixed time controllers, traffic signal timings are set to reflect average (non-evacuation) traffic conditions. Actuated traffic signal settings respond to the time-varying demands of evacuation traffic to adjust the relative capacities of the competing intersection approaches.

The model is also capable of modeling the presence of manned traffic control. At specific locations where it is advisable or where existing plans call for overriding existing traffic control to implement manned control, the model will use actuated signal timings that reflect the presence of traffic guides. At locations where a special traffic control strategy (continuous left-turns, contra-flow lanes) is used, the strategy is modeled explicitly. A list that includes the total number of intersections modeled that are unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel is provided in Appendix K.

4.4 Simulation and Capacity Estimation Chapter 6 of the HCM 2016 is entitled, "HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools." The chapter discusses the use of alternative tools such as simulation modeling to evaluate the operational performance of highway networks. Among the reasons cited in Chapter 6 to consider using simulation as an alternative analysis tool is:

"The system under study involves a group of different facilities or travel modes with mutual interactions involving several HCM chapters. Alternative tools are able to analyze these facilities as a single system."

This statement succinctly describes the analyses required to determine traffic operations across an area encompassing a study area operating under evacuation conditions. The model utilized for this study, DYNEV II is further described in Appendix C. It is essential to recognize that simulation models do not replicate the methodology and procedures of the HCM 2016 - they replace these procedures by describing the complex interactions of traffic flow and computing Measures of Effectiveness {MOE) detailing the operational performance of traffic over time and by location. The DYNEV II simulation model includes some HCM 2016 procedures only for the purpose of estimating capacity.

All simulation models must be calibrated properly with field observations that quantify the performance parameters applicable to the analysis network. Two of the most important of these are: (1) FFS; and (2) saturation headway, hsat* The first of these is estimated by direct Surry Power Station 4-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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observation during the road survey; the second is estimated using the concepts of the HCM, as described earlier.

It is important to note that simulation represents a mathematical representation of an assumed set of conditions using the best available knowledge and understanding of traffic flow and available inputs. Simulation should not be assumed to be a prediction of what will happen under any event because a real evacuation can be impacted by an infinite number of things -

many of which will differ from these test cases - and many others cannot be taken into account with the tools available.

4.5 Boundary Conditions As illustrated in Figure 1-2 and in Appendix K, the link-node analysis network used for this study is finite. The analysis network extends well beyond the 15-mile radial study area in some locations in order to model intersections with other major evacuation routes beyond the study area. However, the network does have an end at the destination (exit) nodes as discussed in Appendix C. Beyond these destination nodes, there may be signalized intersections or merge points that impact the capacity of the evacuation routes leaving the study area. Rather than neglect these "boundary conditions," this study assumes a 25% reduction in capacity on two-lane roads (Section 4.3.1 above) and multilane highways (Section 4.3.2 above) if there are traffic signals downstream. The 25% reduction in capacity is based on the prevalence of actuated traffic signals in the study area and the fact that the evacuating traffic volume ("main street") will be more significant than the competing ("side street") traffic volume at any downstream signalized intersections, thereby warranting a more significant percentage (75% in this case) of the signal green time. There is no reduction in capacity for freeways due to boundary conditions.

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Volume, vph

+ Capacity Drop Qmax -

RQmax-

.----==---=-,,..----------------

Flow egimes Density, vpm Speed,mph ill! Free Forced, Vf - ; - - ~ I~ - - - _ _ :

R Ve - -----:----------.,- - -

, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I L-----.'-------.'-------!---------=.;.....-------+ Density, vpm I

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5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal guidance (see NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1) recommends that the ETE study estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the public to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is represented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.

The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of the demographic survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.

5.1 Background

In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Section C of Part IV of Appendix E of 10 CFR 50 for details):

1. Unusual Event

2. Alert

3. Site Area Emergency

4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the licensee, and by the state and local offsite agencies. As a Planning Basis. we will adopt a conservative posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, that a rapidly escalating accident at the plant wherein evacuation is ordered promptly, and no early protective actions have been implemented will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume:

1. The ATE will be announced coincident with the siren notification.

2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the siren notification.

3. ETE are measured relative to the ATE.

We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to:

1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.

2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.

It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency. For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the ATE. In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the ATE is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many will engage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an advisory will be broadcasted. Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people remaining to evacuate the EPZ after the ATE, will both be somewhat less than the estimates presented in this report.

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Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are likely to be higher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.

The notification process consists of two events:

1. Transmitting information using the alert and notification systems (ANS) available within the EPZ (e.g., sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, loudspeakers).

2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.

The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of approximately 280 square miles and is engaged in a wide variety of activities. It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an event.

The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, some persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the emergency is declared. These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.

As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.

For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tone alert and/or radio (if available). Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day - families will be united in the evenings but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.

As indicated in Section 4.3 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, the information required to compute trip generation times is typically obtained from a demographic survey of EPZ residents. Such a survey was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F discusses the survey sampling plan, documents the survey instrument utilized, and provides the survey results. It is important to note that the shape and duration of the evacuation trip mobilization distribution is important at sites where traffic congestion is not expected to cause the evacuation time estimate to extend in time well beyond the trip generation period. The remaining discussion will focus on the application of the trip generation data obtained from the demographic survey to the development of the ETE documented in this report.

5.2 Fundamental Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.

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Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e., to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are:

Event Number Event Description 1 Notification 2 Awareness of Situation 3 Depart Work 4 Arrive Home 5 Depart on Evacuation Trip Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined in Table 5-1:

These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.

An Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)

An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leave work, travel home)

As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (i.e., the activity, 'travel home' changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described as an 'Event Sequence'; the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to the next and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.

An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work and will await their return before beginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-l(a). A household within the EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, will follow the second sequence of Figure 5-l(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.

Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time, will follow the applicable sequence in Figure 5-l(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of Figure 5-l(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.

It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e., the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.

Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.

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In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the preparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for many households, but that assumption is not made in this study.

5.3 Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities. (This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since it is performed on distributions - not scalar numbers).

Time Distribution No. 1. Notification Process: Activity 1 2 Federal regulations (10CFR50 Appendix E, Item IV.D.3) stipulate, "[t]he design objective of the prompt public alert and notification system shall be to have the capability to essentially complete the initial alerting and initiate notification of the public within the plume exposure pathway EPZ within about 15 minutes". Furthermore, Part V, Section B.1, item 3 of the 2019 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual states that "Notification methods will be established to ensure coverage within 45 minutes of essentially 100% of the population ... "

Given the federal regulations and guidance, and the presence of sirens within the EPZ, it is assumed that 100% of the population in the EPZ can be notified within 45 minutes. The notification distribution is provided in Table 5-2. The distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.

Distribution No. 2. Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2 3 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work quickly. Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel or farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their facility. The distribution of Activity 2 3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by the demographic survey. This distribution is also applicable for residents to leave stores, restaurants, parks and other locations within the EPZ. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.

Distribution No. 3. Travel Home: Activity 3 4 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the demographic survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.

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Distribution No. 4. Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2. 4 5 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the demographic survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.

Distribution No. 5. Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance. It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours, wherein evacuation may not be the best protective action.

Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable - albeit at a lower capacity - under the vast majority of snow conditions. Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.

These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions. These data are provided by those households which responded to the demographic survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.

5.4 Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions. As discussed above, this study assumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the return of a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3 4) must precede Activity 4 5.

To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it is necessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities. The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution. As an outcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure. Table 5-7 presents the summing procedure to arrive at each designated distribution.

Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after the summing process is completed.

5.4.1 Statistical Outliers As discussed in the footnote to Table 5-3, some portion of the survey respondents answer "Decline to State" to some questions or choose to not respond to a question. The mobilization activity distributions are based upon actual responses. But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 500 responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given Surry Power Station 5-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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answer, but three people say "four hours" and four people say "six or more hours".

These "outliers" must be considered: are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should be dropped from the sample?

In assessing outliers, there are three alternates to consider:

1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon special needs;

2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours6.944444e-5 days 0.00167 hours 9.920635e-6 weeks 2.283e-6 months to return home from commuting distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);

3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as part of the consideration of outliers.

The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to be considered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.

There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly or in groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-parametric methods to avoid that assumption. The literature cites that limited work has been done directly on outliers in sample survey responses.

In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used:

1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with no overlap of activities;

2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home, clear snow) are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, and Table 5-8);

3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g.

those with access and/or functional needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate trip generation patterns for personal vehicles;

4) To eliminate outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses, b) the median ofthe same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted, c) the histogram of the data is inspected, and d) all values greater than 2.8 standard deviations are flagged for attention, taking Surry Power Station 5-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the histogram display.

In general, only flagged values more than 2.8 standard deviations from the mean are allowed to be considered outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.

When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.

5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution. A typical situation that results is shown in Figure 5-3.

6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key aspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times:

Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve, indicating that the network loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (and earlier) congestion than otherwise modeled; The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off" slower than the comparable "normal" curve, indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.

Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data that is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. One could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is unambiguous and preserves these important features;

7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.

This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g., commuter returning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, using weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 5-4 presents the combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. (As discussed earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is a conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential - preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and so forth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to some extent - for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home while the commuter is still on the road.)

The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to later computations that lead to the ETE.

The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Surry Power Station 5-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 5-9 {Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).

The final time period {15) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that there are no trips generated during this final time period.

5.4.2 Staged Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002 Rev. 1, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. PAZs comprising the 2-Mile Region are advised to evacuate immediately

2. PAZs comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2-Mile Region is cleared

3. As vehicles evacuate the 2-Mile Region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation

4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5-Mile Region are advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2-Mile Region evacuate across the 2-Mile Region boundary

5. The population in the 5 to 10 mile region {to the EPZ boundary) shelters in place

6. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%

Assumptions

1. The EPZ population in PAZs beyond 5 miles will shelter-in-place. A non-compliance voluntary evacuation percentage of 20% is assumed for this population.

2. The population in the Shadow Region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending to approximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged evacuation scenarios. That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with no shelter delay.

3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of the limited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or at other venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation would prove difficult.

4. Employees are also assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.

Procedure

1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2-Mile Region will be as computed based upon the results of the demographic survey and analysis.

2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated as follows:

a. Identify the approximate 90th percentile ETE for the PAZs comprising the 2-Mile Region. This value, Tsce/, is obtained from simulation results. It will become the Surry Power Station 5-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for each scenario.

b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows:

i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%

of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).

ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tseen*

iii. Following time Tseen *, the balance of trips are generated:

1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tseen* is~ max trip generation time) or

2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tseen* is> max trip generation time)

c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios. NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 uses the statement "approximately 90 percent" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.

The value of Tseen* is 2:30 for non-heavy snow scenarios and 3:30 for heavy snow scenarios.

3. Staged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups:

a. Residents with returning commuters

b. Residents without returning commuters

c. Residents with returning commuters and heavy snow conditions

d. Residents without returning commuters and heavy snow conditions Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and without returning commuters; the 90th percentile two-mile evacuation time is approximately 150 minutes for good weather/rain/light snow and approximately 210 minutes for heavy snow scenarios. At the approximate 90th percentile evacuation time for the 2-Mile Region, approximately 20% of the population (who have completed their mobilization activities) advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the shelter advisory. Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.

Since the 90th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation time, after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises to meet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution. Following time Tseen', the balance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released within 15 minutes. After Tseen' +15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the un-staged trip generation distribution.

Table 5-10 provides the trip generation histograms for staged evacuation.

5.4.3 Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas The Commonwealth of Virginia Radiological Emergency Response Plan describes the notification procedures for the Surry Power Station as follows:

1. The Department of Conservation and Recreation will "warn and evacuate all personnel in the Chippokes Plantation State Park when notified of an emergency affecting the Surry Power Station 5-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Park."

2. The Department of Wildlife Resources will "assist in warning persons in the Hog Island Wildlife Management Area in the vicinity of Surry Power Station."

3. The Marine Resources Commission will "provide boats and assist in warning and evacuation, as required."

As indicated in Table 5-2, this study assumes 100% notification in 45 minutes. It is assumed that this timeframe is sufficient for the notification of boaters and that resident boaters will be able to start their evacuation trip within the 4 hour4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months and 45 minutes mobilization timeframe for residents with commuters {Table 5-9).

Table 5-9 indicates that all transients will have mobilized within 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 15 minutes; it is assumed that this allows sufficient time for campers and other transients to return to their vehicles and begin their evacuation trip.

Surry Power Station 5-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities Event Sequence Activity Distribution 1 2 Receive Notification 1 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2 2,3 4 Travel Home 3 2,4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4 N/A Snow Clearance 5 Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public Elapsed Time Percent of (Minutes) Population Notified 0 0%

5 7%

10 13%

15 27%

20 47%

25 66%

30 87%

35 92%

40 97%

45 100%

Surry Power Station 5-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work Cumulative Percent Employees Elapsed Time (Minutes) Leaving Work 0 0%

5 36%

10 56%

15 79%

20 86%

25 88%

30 97%

35 99.6%

40 100%

NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response.

That is, the sample was reduced in size to include only those households who responded to this question. The underlying assumption is that the distribution of this activity for the "Decline to State" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as those responders who provided estimates.

Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home Cumulative Cumulative Elapsed Time Percent Elapsed Time Percent (Minutes) Returning Home (Minutes) Returning Home 0 0% 35 80%

5 5% 40 86%

10 18% 45 89%

15 34% so 95%

20 48% 55 97%

25 62% 60 99%

30 75% 75 100%

NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response Surry Power Station 5-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Leave Home Cumulative Cumulative Elapsed Time Percent Prepared Elapsed Time Percent Prepared

{Minutes) to Leave Home (Minutes) to Leave Home 0 0% 120 83%

15 5% 135 93%

30 19% 150 94.6%

45 33% 165 94.6%

60 53% 180 95.5%

75 70% 195 99.1%

90 75% 210 100%

105 79%

NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6 11 -8 11 of Snow from Driveway Cumulative Percent Elapsed Time Completing Snow (Minutes) Removal 0 17%

15 28%

30 44%

45 56%

60 71%

75 82%

90 86%

105 88%

120 91%

135 94%

150 96%

165 97%

180 100%

NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response Surry Power Station 5-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events Apply "Summing" Algorithm To: Distribution Obtained Event Defined Distributions 1 and 2 Distribution A Event 3 Distributions A and 3 Distribution B Event 4 Distributions B and 4 Distribution C Event 5 Distributions 1 and 4 Distribution D Event 5 Distributions C and 5 Distribution E Event 5 Distributions D and 5 Distribution F Event 5 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions Distribution Description Time distribution of commuters departing place of work/college (Event 3). Also A applies to commuters who work/go to college within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.

B Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).

Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home C

to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).

Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving home D

to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5) .

Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home E

to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).

Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to F

begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).

Surry Power Station 5-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-Staged Evacuation Percent of Total Trips Generated Within Indicated Time Period Residents Residents With Residents Residents with Without Commuters Without Time Duration Employees Transients Commuters Commuters Snow Commuters Snow Period (Min) {Distribution A) (Distribution A) (Distribution C) (Distribution D) (Distribution E) {Distribution F) 1 15 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2 15 34% 34% 0% 3% 0% 1%

3 30 57% 57% 3% 23% 1% 6%

4 15 3% 3% 6% 17% 1% 7%

5 15 0% 0% 11% 17% 4% 9%

6 30 0% 0% 29% 17% 13% 21%

7 30 0% 0% 22% 10% 19% 18%

8 60 0% 0% 21% 10% 33% 23%

9 30 0% 0% 4% 3% 11% 7%

10 30 0% 0% 3% 0% 8% 4%

11 15 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 2%

12 60 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 2%

13 15 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

14 30 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

15 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

NOTE:

Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively .

Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.

Surry Power Station 5-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation Percent of Total Trips Generated Within Indicated Time Period*

Residents Residents Residents with Without Residents With Without Time Duration Commuters Commuters Commuters Snow Commuters Snow Period (Min) (Distribution C} (Distribution D) (Distribution E) (Distribution F}

1 15 0% 0% 0% 0%

2 15 0% 1% 0% 0%

3 30 1% 4% 0% 1%

4 15 1% 4% 0% 2%

5 15 2% 3% 1% 2%

6 30 6% 3% 3% 4%

7 30 4% 2% 4% 3%

8 60 78% 80% 6% 5%

9 30 4% 3% 68% 75%

10 30 3% 0% 8% 4%

11 15 1% 0% 3% 2%

12 60 0% 0% 5% 2%

13 15 0% 0% 1% 0%

14 30 0% 0% 1% 0%

15 600 0% 0% 0% 0%

Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Un-Staged and Staged Evacuation .

Surry Power Station 5-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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1 2 3 4 5 Residents Households wait for Commuters1 Households without 1 2 5 Commuters and Residents households who do not o-----0-----0 wait for Commuters (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Residents, Transients 1 2 4 5 Return to residence, away from Residence o-----0-----0-------0 then evacuate Residents, 1 2 5 Residents at home; Transients at Residence o-----0-----0 transients evacuate directly (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 1 2 3, 5 o-----0-----0 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ ACTIVITIES EVENTS 1 ---+ 2 Receive Notification 1. Notification 2 ---+ 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2. Aware of situation 2, 3 ---+ 4 Travel Home 3. Depart work 2, 4 ---+ 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4. Arrive home

5. Depart on evacuation trip Activities Consume Time 0

1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Surry Power Station 5-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Mobilization Activities 100%

~

80%

"f; C(

C 0

111

~

s0

~ 60%

ti.cl C

,.:; - Notification QI

-a. - Prepare to Leave Work E

0 u - Travel Home C

0 40%

,.:; - Prepare Home 111 "S - Time to Clear Snow 12.

0 CL

....0C QI

...u QI 20%

CL 0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Activity (min)

Figure 5-2. Time Distributions for Evacuation Mobilization Activities Surry Power Station 5-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

70.0%

icu 60.0%

QI) n, C

...ucucu 50.0%

Cl.

cu

.2:

n, "S 40.0%

E

J u

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

I.I'! Lil I.I'! Lil I.I'! Lil I.I'! Lil I.I'! Lil I.I'! Lil Lil I.I'! Lil I.I'!

N r-: ....

N

....r-: N N

r-:

N N

("(')

r-:

("(')

N

'<t r-:

'<t N

Lil r-:

I.O N

00 r-:

en ........N Center of Interval (minutes)

- Cumulative Data - - Cumulative Normal Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution Surry Power Station 5-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Trip Generation Distributions

- Employees/Transients - Residents with Commuters - Residents with no Commuters

- Res with Comm and Snow - Res no Comm with Snow 100 Q,

80 I-C 0

.;::i Ill

I Ill l&I a.o 60 C

cC

'6".o QI CD C

0

.;::i Ill 40

iQ, 0

....a.0

....C QI Cl.I 20 a.

0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)

Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Surry Power Station 5-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

Staged and Unstaged Evacuation Trip Generation

- Employees/ Transients - Residents with Commuters

- Residents with no Commuters - Res with Comm and Snow

- Res no Comm with Snow - staged Residents with Commuters

- staged Residents with no Commuters - staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)

- staged Residents with no Commuters (Snow)

Q.

I-C 0 80 n,

I u

n, w >

a.o

.5 60 C

C

'6'o cu CD C

0

.;::; 40 n,

"S Q.

0 ll.

....0C 20

...ucucu ll.

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)

Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5-Mile Region Surry Power Station 5-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.

The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows:

Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating PAZs that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions. Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A total of 49 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of PAZs considered.

These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The PAZ configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.

Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance. The central sector coincides with the wind direction. These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (Regions R04 through Rl0) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions Rll through R41).

Regions R0l, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively. Regions R42 through R49 are identical to Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0, respectively; however, those PAZs between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (Region R0l) has evacuated.

Each PAZ that intersects the keyhole or radius is included in the Region, unless specified otherwise in the Protective Action Recommendation (PAR) determination flowchart. There are instances wherein a small portion (a "sliver") of a PAZ is within the keyhole and the population within that small portion is low (500 people or 10% of PAZ population, whichever is less). Under those circumstances, the PAZ would not be included in the Region.

A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 49 x 14 = 686 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.

Each combination of Region and Scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. The population and vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 and Appendix E are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. The scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1.

Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 - the entire EPZ. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows:

The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to 45%, which is the product of approximately 74% (the number of households with at least one commuter - see Appendix F, Figure F-5) and 61% (the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating - see Appendix F, Surry Power Station 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Figure F-10). See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.

It can be argued that the estimate of permanent residents overstates, somewhat, the number of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel elsewhere. A rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows:

Assume 50% of all households vacation for a period over the summer.

Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e., 10%

of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.

Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.

On this basis, the permanent resident population would be reduced by 5% in the summer and by a lesser amount in the off-season. Given the uncertainty in this estimate, we elected to apply no reductions in permanent resident population for the summer scenarios to account for residents who may be out of the area.

Employment is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios. Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios. This is based on the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is further estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.

Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during summer weekends during the day and less (75%) during the week. Percentages were estimated for each facility type, by season and time of day. As shown in Appendix E, there are a significant number of campgrounds in the EPZ; thus, transient activity is relatively high during summer evenings - 40%. Transient activity during the winter is less - 30% during the week, 45% on weekends, and 10% in the evening.

Note, these percentages do not apply to lodging facilities or to the major transient attractions (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Colonial Williamsburg, and Jamestown Settlement) which are discussed below.

As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 7 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the Shadow Region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the Shadow Region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows:

( 16,728 )

ZO% X l + 39,657 + 48,190 = Z4 %

The major transient attractions in the EPZ (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement, and Colonial Williamsburg) operating at capacity is the special event (Scenario 13).

Surry Power Station 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

It is estimated that typical weekday attendance at these facilities is about 60% of capacity in the summer, while weekend attendance is about 75% of capacity in the summer. Evening attendance is less {55%) during the summer as Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and Colonial Williamsburg are closed, but Busch Gardens remains open. No transients are considered at these facilities for the winter months. See Section 3.8 for additional information on the special event.

As discussed in the footnote to Table 2-1, schools are in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances. It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios. School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances. These percentages also apply to on and off campus students at the College of William and Mary.

Lodging facilities are estimated to be 25% occupied during the day (weekdays and weekends) in the summer and 100% occupied in the evening during the summer. Many of the lodging facilities in the EPZ cater to the major transient attractions. Transients are at the major attractions during the day and return to their lodging facility in the evening. Lodging facilities are less occupied during the winter months - 15% during the week, 25% on weekends and 50%

in the evening. Note, it is assumed that lodging facilities are 50% occupied during a weekend day for the special event {Scenario 13).

Transit vehicles for the transit-dependent population and medical facilities are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population and medical facility population are present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 40% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

Surry Power Station 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees N/A WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237-11 R04 NNE, NE 12-56 ROS ENE, E 57 - 101 RO6 ESE 102- 123 RO7 SE 124-146 ROS SSE 147-168 RO9 s,ssw 169- 213 RlO SW 214- 236 Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees 15 18B lSC 18D 19A 19B 2OA 2OB 21 22A 22B 23 24 Rll N 349-11 R12 NNE 12-33 R13 NE 34-56 R14 ENE 57-78 RlS E 79 - 101 R16 ESE 102-123 R17 SE 124-146 RlS SSE 147-168 R19 s 169-191 R2O SSW 192- 213 R21 SW 214- 236 R22 WSW 237- 258 R23 w 259- 281 R24 WNW 282- 303 R25 NW 304- 326 R26 NNW 327- 348 Surry Power Station 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R27 N 349-11 R28 NNE 12-33 R29 NE 34-56 R30 ENE 57-78 R31 E 79-101 R32 ESE 102-123 R33 SE 124-146 R34 SSE, S 147 -191 R35 SSW 192- 213 R36 SW 214- 236 R37 WSW 237- 258 R38 w 259- 281 R39 WNW 282- 303 R40 NW 304- 326 R N 327-348 Re ion Wind Direction From : De rees R42 5-Mile Region N/A N/A WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237 -11 R43 NNE, NE 12-56 R44 ENE, E 57-101 R45 ESE 102-123 R46 SE 124-146 R47 SSE 147-168 R48 s,ssw 169- 213 R49 SW 214- 236 Surry Power Station 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario Season 1 Day of Week Time of Day Weather Special 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5 Summer Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None Rain/Light 7 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Heavy Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None Rain/Light 10 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Heavy Snow None 12 Winter Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None Special Event: Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at 13 Summer Weekend Midday Good capacity on summer weekends Roadway Impact: Lane Closure 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good on 1-64 Westbound 1 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).

Surry Power Station 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios Households Households With Without On- Off- External Returning Returning Special Lodging Medical Campus Campus School Transit Through Scenario Commuters Commuters Employees Transients Shadow Event Facilities Facilities Students Students Buses Buses Traffic 1 45% 55% 96% 75% 24% 60% 25% 100% 10% 10% 10% 100% 100%

2 45% 55% 96% 75% 24% 60% 25% 100% 10% 10% 10% 100% 100%

3 5% 95% 10% 100% 20% 75% 25% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%

4 5% 95% 10% 100% 20% 75% 25% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%

5 5% 95% 10% 40% 20% 55% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 40%

6 45% 55% 100% 30% 24% 0% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

7 45% 55% 100% 30% 24% 0% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

8 45% 55% 100% 30% 24% 0% 15% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

9 5% 95% 10% 45% 20% 0% 25% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%

10 5% 95% 10% 45% 20% 0% 25% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%

11 5% 95% 10% 45% 20% 0% 25% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%

12 5% 95% 10% 10% 20% 0% 50% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 40%

13 5% 95% 10% 100% 20% 100% 50% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%

14 45% 55% 96% 75% 24% 60% 25% 100% 10% 10% 10% 100% 100%

Households with Returning Commuters ........... ......... ... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.

Households without Returning Commuters ..... ........ .... Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.

Employees ...................................................... .............. EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients ...................... ................ ........ ....................... People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.

Shadow ..... ................... .. ........................ ... .................... Residents and employees in the Shadow Region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation . The basis for the values shown is a 20%

relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Event Vehicles in the EPZ visiting the major transient attractions (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Colonial Williamsburg and Jamestown Settlement).

Lodging Facilities .......................................................... People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident staying at hotels and motels.

On/Off-Campus Students ......... ........ ..... ............ ........ ... College student vehicles at the College of William and Mary.

School Buses, Medical Facilities, Transit Buses .... ........ Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and day care centers (operated by schools), medical facilities , and transit-dependent people (1 bus/wheelchair bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic ........................ ................ ....... Traffic passing through the study area on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation . This traffic is stopped by access control 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months after the ATE .

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Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario2 Households Households On- Off- External With Without Special Lodging Medical School Transit Total Scenario Employees Transients Shadow Campus Campus Through Returning Returning Event Facilities Facilities Buses Buses Vehicles Students Students Traffic Commuters Commuters 1 39,657 48,190 16,728 2,621 18,312 3,960 3,627 303 244 232 93 140 15,472 149,579 2 39,657 48,190 16,728 2,621 18,312 3,960 3,627 303 244 232 93 140 15,472 149,579 3 3,966 83,881 1,743 3,494 15,688 4,950 3,627 303 0 0 0 140 15,472 133,264 4 3,966 83,881 1,743 3,494 15,688 4,950 3,627 303 0 0 0 140 15,472 133,264 5 3,966 83,881 1,743 1,398 15,688 3,630 14,509 303 0 0 0 140 6,189 131,447 6 39,657 48,190 17,425 1,048 18,434 0 2,176 303 2,435 2,324 934 140 15,472 148,538 7 39,657 48,190 17,425 1,048 18,434 0 2,176 303 2,435 2,324 934 140 15,472 148,538 8 39,657 48,190 17,425 1,048 18,434 0 2,176 303 2,435 2,324 934 140 15,472 148,538 9 3,966 83,881 1,743 1,572 15,688 0 3,627 303 0 0 0 140 15,472 126,392 10 3,966 83,881 1,743 1,572 15,688 0 3,627 303 0 0 0 140 15,472 126,392 11 3,966 83,881 1,743 1,572 15,688 0 3,627 303 0 0 0 140 15,472 126,392 12 3,966 83,881 1,743 349 15,688 0 7,255 303 0 0 0 140 6,189 119,514 13 3,966 83,881 1,743 3,494 15,688 6,600 7,255 303 0 0 0 140 15,472 138,542 14 39,657 48,190 16,728 2,621 18,312 3,960 3,627 303 244 232 93 140 15,472 149,579 2 Vehicles estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03).

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Legend GJ SPS PAZ

\..-:. 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings WWW.W-0$11§.gQV Figure 6-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station 6-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES {ETE)

This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 49 Evacuation Regions within the SPS EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.

The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios. The ETE for the 2-Mile Region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II model outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation "Voluntary evacuees" are permanent residents within the EPZ in PAZs for which an ATE has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some permanent residents from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.

The ETE for the SPS EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20% of permanent residents located in PAZs outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate. Similarly, it is assumed that 20% of those permanent residents in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.

Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 139,650 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20% of them would evacuate. See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.

Traffic generated within this Shadow Region (including external-external traffic), traveling away from the SPS location, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.

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7 .2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. PAZs comprising the 2-Mile Region are advised to evacuate immediately.

2. PAZs comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2-Mile Region is cleared.

3. As vehicles evacuate the 2-Mile Region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.

4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5-Mile Region is advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2-Mile Region evacuate across the 2-Mile Region boundary.

5. The population in the 5 to 10 Mile Region (to the EPZ boundary) shelters in place.

6. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.

See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7 .3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ {Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).

Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows {HCM 2016, page 5-5):

The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have reached a point that most users would consider unsatisfactory, as described by a specified service measure value (or combination of service measure values). However, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared. Several measures are available for describing individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which demand exceeds capacity during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);

Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and

Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions. These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

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All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated. Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months after the ATE, Figure 7-3 displays congestion within the more populous portion of the EPZ, north of the James River. At this time, large portions of the residential population are mobilizing. Congestion is rapidly developing within the population centers of Williamsburg, Newport News, and surrounding areas. In contrast, the rural portion of the network which lies south of the James River experiences minimal congestion. Traffic volume {LOS B and C) is exhibited on Hog Island Road as SPS non-essential employees evacuate, which clears {LOS A) 5 minutes later at 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 5 minutes. White Marsh Road is operating at LOS C at this time but operates at LOS A 20 minutes later at 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 20 minutes after the ATE. State Route 10 and State Route 31 in Surry (PAZ 1) experience LOS B and LOS D conditions, respectively. At this time, about 35% of evacuating vehicles have mobilized.

Figure 7-4 displays peak traffic congestion in the study area north of James River at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months after the ATE. 1-64 westbound is operating at LOS F from the Busch Gardens on-ramp in PAZ 19B to just beyond the Shadow Region. Significant congestion {LOS F) is exhibited on Monticello Ave and State Route 5 westbound in PAZ 24 as evacuees try to depart the EPZ and avoid congestion on 1-64 westbound. State Route 614 northbound from State Route 5 to Jolly Pond Road is operating at LOS F. Colonial Parkway southeast from Indian Field Creek is operating at LOS F in PAZ 19B as evacuees try to access US-17. US-17 northbound from State Route 173 to the end of the study area is mostly operating at LOS D/F. There is significant congestion {LOS F) on State Route 173 between US-17 and US-60 as evacuees try to access US-60, State Route 143, and US-17 to leave the area. Fort Eustis Boulevard {State Route 105) is mostly operated at LOS F as Fort Eustis military personnel and employees are evacuating the military base. Significant congestion {LOS F) is exhibited on US-60 southbound from Curtis Drive {PAZ 16) to Menchville Road (in the Shadow Region just south of PAZ 15). All roadways in the 2-Mile Region are operating at LOS A. All roadways in the 5-Mile Region are operating at LOS A except for a small portion of Mounts Bay Road operating at LOS B in PAZ 18B, which clears 5 minutes later at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months and 5 minutes after the ATE. There is also significant traffic congestion southeast of the study area in Newport News as evacuees try to access 1-64 eastbound and 1-664 southbound to leave the area. The rural portion of the network located south of the James River is operating at LOS A except for a portion of State Route 31 in Surry {PAZ 1) which is operating at LOS B; this roadway operates at LOS A 5 minutes later at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months and 5 minutes after the ATE. At this time, about 73% of evacuating vehicles have mobilized.

At 4 hours4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months after the ATE, Figure 7-5 shows that congestion persists north of the City of Williamsburg in the Shadow Region as evacuees try to access 1-64 westbound at various interchanges. 1-64 westbound is congested from West Queens Drive (PAZ 20B) to just beyond the Shadow Region. State Route 5 westbound, west of Williamsburg, is also congested.

Congestion also persists east of the plant in the eastern portion of the City of Newport News in the Shadow Region. Yorktown (PAZ 17) is highly congested as EPZ and Shadow Region evacuees try to access US-17 northbound which is congested from the intersection with State Route 105 to beyond the study area. Congestion within the EPZ (north of the James River) is beginning to Surry Power Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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dissipate as earlier traffic congestion has cleared on the roadways in PAZs 14, 15, 16, 18A, 18B, 18C, 18D, and PAZ 19A. Congestion persists in the southern portion of Newport News along 1-664 southbound and 1-64 eastbound. The portion of the EPZ south of the James River continues to operate at LOS A as the last of the permanent residents are mobilizing.

At 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 30 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows the EPZ is almost clear of congestion except for congestion along roadways on the northern border of PAZ 23 (Longhill Road and Olde Town Road), which clears 25 minutes later at 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes after the ATE.

Congestion persists north of the City of Williamsburg in the Shadow Region with pronounced congestion along 1-64 westbound. Local roads in this area are congested as the ramps to access 1-64 westbound are not flowing well due to the congestion on the main thoroughfare of 1-64.

US-17 northbound from Powhatan Dr (in the Shadow Region) to the end of the study area is operating at LOS F. Finally, the ramps to access 1-664 southbound from US-60 in the southern portion of Newport News (beyond the study area) are congested.

At 7 hours8.101852e-5 days 0.00194 hours 1.157407e-5 weeks 2.6635e-6 months after the ATE, Figure 7-7 shows that the congestion north of the City of Williamsburg in the Shadow Region is beginning to dissipate. Local roads (Newman Road, Mt Laurel Road, etc.) continue to operate at LOS F as the ramps to access 1-64 are still not flowing well due to the congestion along the main thoroughfare of 1-64 westbound. The congestion on 1-64 westbound is dissipating as the queues no longer extend into the EPZ. The ramps to access 1-664 southbound from US-60 in the southern portion of Newport News remain congested.

Figure 7-8 shows the last remnants of traffic congestion in the study area at 8 hours9.259259e-5 days 0.00222 hours 1.322751e-5 weeks 3.044e-6 months and 25 minutes after the ATE. Fenton Mill Road northbound is congested at the intersection with Croaker Road (State Route 607) as evacuees try to access 1-64 via the ramp from Croaker Rd.

Old Stage Road (State Route 30) is congested northbound from the interchange with 1-64 to the end of the analysis network. 1-64 westbound is operating at LOS C/D near the interchange with State Route 30. All roadways in the analysis network are operating at LOS A 15 minutes later at 8 hours9.259259e-5 days 0.00222 hours 1.322751e-5 weeks 3.044e-6 months and 40 minutes after the ATE.

7 .4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22. These figures display the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions. One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions. Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase). When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.

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This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end - thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.

7 .5 Evacuation Time Estimate Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 49 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios. Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile Region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles.

The tables are organized as follows :

Table Contents The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 90% of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 100% of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 90% of the population within the 2-Mile Region, to evacuate from the 2-Mile 7-3 Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of additional PAZs downwind in the keyhole Region.

The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 100% of the population within the 2-Mile Region, to evacuate from the 2-Mile 7-4 Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of additional PAZs downwind in the keyhole Region .

The animation snapshots described in Section 7-3 above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8. There is congestion within the EPZ north of the James River for 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes due to the densely populated communities in this portion of the EPZ. Most of the traffic congestion is located in PAZs 15, 16, 21, 23, and 24 which are beyond the 5-Mile Region; this is reflected in the ETE statistics:

The 90th percentile ETE for Region R0l (2-Mile Region), Region R02 (5-Mile Region) and keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles (Regions R04 through Rl0) range from 2:20 (hr:min) to 3:05 for scenarios that do not involve heavy snow. These ETE closely parallel the time needed to mobilize 90% of evacuees in the region, which is indicative of minimal traffic congestion.

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The 90th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) is as much as 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 50 minutes longer than the ETE for Regions R0l and R02 due to the traffic congestion in the EPZ north of the James River, beyond the 5-Mile Region. The 90th percentile ETE for Region R03 range from 3:30 to 4:20 for all non-heavy snow scenarios and from 4:35 to 5:15 for heavy snow scenarios.

The 90th percentile ETE for keyhole regions downwind to the EPZ boundary range from 2:35 to 4:35 for scenarios that do not involve heavy snow, which is significantly longer (ranging from 15 minutes to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 30 minutes longer) than keyholes extending to 5 miles.

The 100th percentile ETE for all regions extending to 2 miles or to 5 miles parallel mobilization time plus travel time to the boundary of the region being evacuated, which is indicative of minimal traffic congestion and free-flowing roads. The 100th percentile ETE for regions extending to the EPZ boundary, however, exceed mobilization time by up to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months and 20 minutes, which is indicative of pronounced traffic congestion.

Comparison of Scenarios 3 and 13 in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the special event, Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg (see Section 3.8), increases 90th percentile ETE by up to 10 minutes and 100th percentile ETE by up to 20 minutes. The increased transients at these facilities on a peak summer weekend greatly increases local congestion near Busch Gardens and Water Country USA; however, the bottleneck north of Williamsburg (see discussion in Section 7.3) dictates the ETE. There is sufficient roadway capacity south of the EPZ to handle the additional transient vehicles.

Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure - a single lane on 1-64 westbound from the interchange with State Route 143 - Exit 247 - in PAZ 16 to the northern boundary of the EPZ (just north of the Camp Peary interchange - Exit 238) - increases the 90th percentile ETE by at most 5 minutes. The roadway closure has no effect on regions which do not involve the evacuation of PAZs in and around the City of Williamsburg. The roadway impact scenario also has minimal impacts on the 100th percentile ETE for some regions with increases of at most 10 minutes. 1-64 westbound is normally 3 lanes in the area of the lane closure. Despite closing a lane, there are still 2 lanes available to service the evacuating traffic.

The ramps to access 1-64 are the bottlenecks in this area, not the main thoroughfare. The bottleneck on the main thoroughfare of 1-64 westbound is farther west where the road narrows to 2 lanes west of Newman Rd (State Route 199).

The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any of the major evacuation routes.

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7 .6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R42 through R4g are the same geographic areas as Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0, respectively. The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-Mile Region is go% clear and 100% clear, respectively.

The objective of a staged evacuation strategy is to ensure the ETE for the 2-Mile Region is not significantly increased (30 minutes or 25%, whichever is less) when evacuating areas beyond 2 miles. Additionally, staged evacuation should not significantly increase the ETE for people evacuating from beyond 2 miles. In all cases, as shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4, the goth and 100th percentile ETE for the 2-Mile Region is unchanged when evacuating areas beyond 2 miles.

These results indicate that when an evacuation out to the 5-Mile Region occurs, the congestion beyond the 2-Mile Region does not extend upstream to the extent that the queueing penetrates the 2-Mile Region enough to impact the ETE of the 2-Mile Region. Evacuees from within the 2-Mile Region are not impacted by those evacuating beyond 2 miles out to 5 miles.

Therefore, staging the evacuation provides no benefit to evacuees from within the 2-Mile Region.

To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents beyond the 2-Mile Region, the ETE for Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0 are compared to Regions R42 through R4g, respectively, in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. A comparison of ETE between these similar regions reveals that staging increases the ETE for those in the 2 to 5-Mile Region by up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months for the goth percentile and has no impact on the 100th percentile.

The increase in the goth percentile ETE is due to the evacuating vehicles, beyond the 2-Mile Region, sheltering and delaying the start of their evacuation. As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant "spike" (sharp increase) in the mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles. Nearly 80% of the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15-minute timeframe. This spike oversaturates evacuation routes, which increases the traffic congestion and prolongs ETE.

In summary, staged evacuation provides no benefit to evacuees in the 2-Mile Region while adversely impacting many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from the plant. Based on the guidance in NUREG-0654, Supplement 3, this analysis would result in staged evacuation not being implemented for this site.

7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (NRC guidance calls for the goth percentile). The applicable value of ETE within the chosen table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:

Season Surry Power Station 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Summer Winter (also Autumn and Spring)

Day of Week Midweek Weekend

Time of Day Midday Evening

Weather Condition Good Weather Rain/Light Snow Heavy Snow

Special Event Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, the Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at capacity

Roadway Impact One Lane Closure on 1-64 westbound

Evacuation Staging No, Staged Evacuation is not considered Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.

The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain/light snow are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain/light snow apply.

The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and heavy snow are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for heavy snow apply.

The seasons are defined as follows:

Summer assumes public school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).

Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session at normal enrollment levels.

Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.

2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:

Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction). This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation: from N, NNE, NE, ...

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Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below:

2 Miles (Region ROl)

To 5 Miles (Regions R02, R04 through RlO, R42 through R49 for staged evacuation)

To the EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, Rll through R41)

Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the table.

3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected. Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:

The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.

Identify the proper column in the selected table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.

Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.

The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.

It is raining.

Wind direction is from the northeast (NE).

Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 2-Mile Region and downwind to 10 miles (to the EPZ boundary).

The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90% of the population from within the impacted Region.

A staged evacuation is not desired.

Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows:

1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors. However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.

2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction from the NE and read Region R13 in the first column of that row.

3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R13. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R13; it contains the ETE value of 2:50.

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: {1) {2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) {10) {11) {12) (13) {14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 RO2 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:25 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:45 2:45 3:50 2:45 2:25 2:45 RO3 3:55 4:20 3:40 4 :00 3:45 3:55 4 :20 5:15 3:35 3:45 4 :35 3:30 3:45 3:55 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4 2:35 2:35 2:30 2:30 2:45 2:40 2:40 3:40 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:50 2:30 2:35 ROS 2:40 2:40 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:50 2:35 2:40 ROG 2:55 2:55 2:40 2:40 2:50 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:50 2:55 2:40 2:55 RO7 3:00 3:00 2:50 2:50 2:50 3:05 3:05 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:50 3:00 ROS 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:30 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:45 2:45 3:50 2:45 2:30 2:50 RO9 2:45 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:55 2:55 3:55 2:45 2:45 3:50 2:45 2:30 2:45 RlO 2:30 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:50 2:50 3:50 2:45 2:45 3:45 2:40 2:20 2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll 3:05 3:05 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:05 3:05 4 :00 3:00 3:00 4 :05 3:00 3:00 3:05 R12 3:05 3:05 2:55 2:55 3:00 3:05 3:05 4:05 3:00 3:00 4 :00 3:00 2:55 3:05 R13 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:55 2:55 4 :00 3:00 2:50 2:55 R14 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:55 2:55 4 :00 3:00 2:50 2:55 RlS 3:15 3:25 3:05 3:15 3:10 3:10 3:15 4 :10 3:00 3:15 4 :00 3:00 3:05 3:15 R16 4:05 4:20 3:45 4 :05 3:55 3:50 4:15 5:05 3:45 4:00 4:50 3:45 3:45 4:05 R17 4:05 4:35 3:55 4 :15 4:05 4:10 4 :35 5:25 3:50 4 :05 4 :50 4 :00 4:05 4:10 R18 3:50 4:10 3:35 3:45 3:55 3:55 4:15 5:20 3:30 3:45 4 :45 3:40 3:40 3:50 R19 3:45 4:10 3:35 3:50 3:45 3:55 4:15 5:00 3:25 3:40 4 :35 3:40 3:40 3:45 R2O 3:15 3:20 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:10 3:25 4:05 3:00 3:15 3:55 2:40 3:10 3:15 R21 3:15 3:25 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:10 3:25 4 :10 2:55 3:05 3:55 2:55 3:05 3:15 R22 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:00 3:00 3:10 3:15 4:10 2:50 3:00 3:55 3:00 2:50 3:05 Surry Power Station 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact R23 3:20 3:40 3:10 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:40 4:30 3:10 3:30 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:25 R24 3:25 3:40 3:10 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:35 4:30 3:10 3:25 4 :10 3:15 3:10 3:25 R25 3:20 3:35 3:10 3:25 3:15 3:20 3:35 4:30 3:05 3:20 4:10 3:10 3:10 3:20 R26 3:05 3:05 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:05 4:00 3:00 3:00 4 :00 3:00 3:00 3:05 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27 2:55 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:55 R28 2:55 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:55 R29 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:50 R30 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4:00 2:50 2:50 3:55 2:50 2:35 2:50 R31 3:15 3:25 3:00 3:10 3:00 3:10 3:20 4 :20 3:05 3:10 4 :05 3:00 3:00 3:15 R32 3:55 4:20 3:55 4 :10 3:55 3:45 4:10 4:55 3:40 4:00 4 :45 3:45 3:55 3:55 R33 4:05 4:30 3:55 4 :10 4:05 4:05 4:35 5:35 3:50 4:10 4 :50 3:50 4:05 4:05 R34 3:50 4:10 3:35 3:45 3:55 3:55 4:15 5:20 3:30 3:45 4 :40 3:35 3:40 3:50 R35 3:05 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:10 3:50 2:50 2:55 3:50 2:40 2:55 3:05 R36 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:00 3:00 3:05 3:15 4:05 2:45 2:55 3:55 3:00 2:55 3:10 R37 3:05 3:15 2:45 2:55 2:55 3:05 3:15 4 :10 2:50 3:00 3:50 2:55 2:50 3:05 R38 3:25 3:40 3:10 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:45 4:35 3:10 3:30 4 :15 3:15 3:10 3:25 R39 3:20 3:35 3:10 3:25 3:15 3:20 3:35 4 :30 3:10 3:25 4 :10 3:10 3:10 3:20 R40 3:15 3:35 3:05 3:20 3:10 3:20 3:35 4:30 3:05 3:20 4 :10 3:10 3:10 3:20 R41 2:55 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:00 3:00 4 :00 2:50 2:50 3:50 2:50 2:35 2:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:15 3:25 3:25 4 :10 3:25 3:25 3:25 R43 3:10 3:10 3:15 3:15 3:20 3:15 3:15 3:55 3:20 3:20 4 :00 3:20 3:15 3:10 R44 3:15 3:15 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:15 3:20 4:00 3:20 3:20 4 :00 3:25 3:20 3:15 R45 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4 :05 3:25 3:25 4 :05 3:25 3:25 3:25 R46 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:10 3:25 3:25 4 :20 3:25 3:25 3:25 Surry Power Station 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact R47 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:15 3:25 3:25 4:15 3:25 3:25 3:25 R48 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:10 3:25 3:25 4 :10 3:25 3:25 3:25 R49 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:25 4:05 3:25 3:25 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:20 Surry Power Station 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: {1) {2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) {10) {11) {12) (13) {14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl 4:50 4:50 4 :45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4 :50 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 6:30 4 :45 4:45 4:50 RO2 4:50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 RO3 6:05 6:55 5:40 6:30 6:10 6:10 7:05 8:25 5:30 5:55 7:25 5:40 6:00 6:15 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 ROS 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 ROG 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 RO7 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 ROS 4:50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 RO9 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 RlO 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R12 4:55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R13 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R14 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 RlS 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R16 5:10 5:35 4:55 5:10 5:05 5:05 5:35 6:40 4:55 5:10 6:40 4:55 4:55 5:10 R17 5:40 6:25 5:25 5:50 5:45 5:50 6:30 7:45 5:15 5:40 6:45 5:25 5:30 5:40 R18 6:00 6:55 5:40 6:15 6:10 6:05 6:45 8:25 5:25 5:55 7:25 5:35 6:00 6:05 R19 6:00 6:40 5:40 6:15 6:05 6:05 6:45 8:00 5:20 5:55 7:15 5:35 5:45 6:05 R2O 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R21 4:55 4:55 4 :55 5:15 4:55 4:55 5:05 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 5:00 4:55 R22 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 Surry Power Station 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact R23 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:10 5:10 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R24 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:00 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R25 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R26 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R28 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R29 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R30 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R31 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R32 5:30 5:55 5:10 5:50 5:20 5:10 5:45 6:40 4:55 5:15 6:40 4:55 5:15 5:30 R33 5:55 6:20 5:35 6:05 5:55 5:50 6:40 8:00 5:20 5:50 7:00 5:20 5:40 6:00 R34 6:00 6:55 5:40 6:15 6:10 6:05 6:45 8:25 5:25 5:55 7:25 5:30 6:00 6:05 R35 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R36 5:00 5:25 4 :55 5:20 5:05 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 5:00 R37 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4:55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R38 4:55 5:00 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:15 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R39 4:55 5:00 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 5:00 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 R40 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 5:20 6:40 4:55 4:55 6:40 4:55 4:55 4:55 R41 4:55 4:55 4 :55 4 :55 4:55 4:55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4 :55 6:40 4 :55 4:55 4:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R43 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 R44 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R45 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4 :50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 R46 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 Surry Power Station 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact R47 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R48 4:50 4:50 4 :50 4 :50 4 :50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 4:50 R49 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:35 4:50 4:50 6:35 4 :50 4:50 4:50 Surry Power Station 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R02 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 ROS 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 ROG 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R07 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 ROS 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R09 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 RlO 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R43 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R44 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R45 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R46 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R47 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R48 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3:25 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:30 R49 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:30 2:30 3 :25 2:50 2:50 3 :45 2:50 2:50 2:30 Surry Power Station 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Rain/Light Heavy Good Special Roadway Rain Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Snow Snow Weather Snow Snow Weather Event Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl 4 :50 4 :50 4 :45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R02 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4 :50 6 :30 4:45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 ROS 4 :50 4 :50 4:45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 ROG 4 :50 4 :50 4 :45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R07 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4:45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4:50 ROS 4 :50 4 :50 4 :45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R09 4:50 4:50 4:45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4 :45 6:30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 RlO 4:50 4:50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42 4:50 4 :50 4:45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4 :45 6:30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R43 4 :50 4 :50 4 :45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R44 4:50 4:50 4:45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4 :45 6:30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R45 4:50 4 :50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R46 4 :50 4 :50 4:45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4 :45 4 :45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R47 4:50 4 :50 4:45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 R48 4:50 4:50 4:45 4 :45 4:45 4:50 4:50 6:30 4:45 4 :45 6:30 4:45 4:45 4:50 R49 4 :50 4 :50 4 :45 4:45 4 :45 4 :50 4 :50 6 :30 4 :45 4:45 6 :30 4:45 4 :45 4:50 Surry Power Station 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions Re ion Descri tion De rees 0 2-Mile Re ion /A ROZ 5-Mile Re ion N/A R03 Full EPZ N/A Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees

/A SW, W, W,N ,N 237-11 R04 NNE, NE 12- 56 ROS ENE, E 57- 101 R06 ESE 102 - 123 R07 SE 124- 146 ROS SSE 147 - 168 R09 s,ssw 169 - 213 RlO SW 214- 236 Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R11 N 349-11 R12 NNE 12- 33 R13 NE 34- 56 R14 ENE 57- 78 RlS E 79- 101 R16 ESE 102- 123 17 SE 124- 146 RlS SSE 147- 168 R19 s 169- 191 R20 SSW 192 - 213 R21 SW 214- 236 R22 WSW 237 - 258 R23 w 259- 281 R24 WNW 282 - 303 R25 NW 304- 326 R26 NNW 327- 348 Surry Power Station 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R27 N 349 -11 R28 NNE 12- 33 R29 NE 34-56 R30 ENE 57-78 R31 E 79-101 R32 ESE 102- 123 R33 SE 124-146 R34 SSE, S 147 - 191 R35 SSW 192- 213 R36 SW 214- 236 R37 WSW 237- 258 R38 w 259- 281 R39 WNW 282- 303 R40 NW 304- 326 R41 NNW 327- 348 Re ion Wind Direction From: De rees R42 5-Mile Region N/A N/A WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237 - 11 R43 NNE, NE 12- 56 R44 ENE, E 57 -101 R45 ESE 102- 123 R46 SE 124- 146 R47 SSE 147- 168 R48 s,ssw 169- 213 R49 SW 214- 236 Surry Power Station 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Plant Location Region to be 1111 Evacuated : 100%

Evacuation

. . Shelter, then Evacuate 1 1 20% Shadow L___J Evacuation 12-Mile Region I 15-Mile Region I IEntire EPZ I Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind Keyhole: 2-Mile Reg ion & 10 Miles Downwind Keyhole: 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwi nd Staged Evacuation: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Dow nwind Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Surry Power Station 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

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/

James River Dendroq Legend SPS Isle of GJ PAZ Shadow Region 2, S, 10, 15 Mile Rings Da>*J /8/2021 l CJPvnght: ESR I Data and Maps 2020 KLDEngineering, Domiinion www.census.gov Wight County I§

-- 10 Miles Figure 7-2. SPS Shadow Region Surry Power Station 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Charles City County Chai/es City 5

Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS

-- A

-- B

- c D

Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Shadow Region

'- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS

-- A

-- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Shadow Region

'- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS

-- A

-- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Shadow Region

'- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Charles City County Chai/es.City 5

Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS

-- A

-- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Shadow Region

'- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Charles City County Chai/es.City 5

Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS

-- A

-- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Shadow Region

'- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 7 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Charles City County Chai/es.City 5

Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS

-- A

-- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ

~ Shadow Region

'- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours and 25 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

160 140 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

160 140 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario Z for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good {Scenario 3)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 120 1111 C

Ill

s

~ ;

-Ill

"'Cl lQQ 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ 1-

c - 40

~

20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain {Scenario 4)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 1111 120 *

~-

C

s

"' Ill

"'Cl lQQ

~ ; 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ I-i - 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 4 for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 120 1111 C lQQ Ill Ill

s "'Cl

~ ; 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ 1-

c - 40

~

20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

160 140 t - - - - - - - - - -----:::::::;;;.-----===--

20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 6 for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 7)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

160 140 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

160 140 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 8 for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good {Scenario 9)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 120 1111 C

Ill

s

~ ;

-Ill

"'Cl lQQ 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ 1-

c - 40

~

20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow {Scenario 10)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 120 1111

~-

C

s

"' Ill

"'Cl lQQ

~ ; 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ I-i - 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 10 for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 120 1111 C lQQ Ill Ill

s "'Cl

~ ; 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ 1-

c - 40

~

20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

120 100 1111 C

i:::s ui

"'Cl 80

~ ;

~ ~ 60 1! _g1-

~

ca, - 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 12 for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

140 120 1111 C lQQ Ill Ill

s "'Cl

~ ; 80

> Ill u.i :::s Ji _g 60

~ 1-

c - 40

~

20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)

- 2-Mile Region - s-Mile Region - Entire EPZ e 90% e 100%

160 140 40 20 0

0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)

Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 14 for Region R03 Surry Power Station 7-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of ETE for transit vehicles. The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups:

residents with no vehicles available;

residents of special facilities such as schools, day care centers (operated by schools),

medical facilities, and correctional facilities;

access and/or functional needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of "passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix Das equivalent to two pc's.

This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.

Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.

Specifically:

Bus drivers must be alerted

They must travel to the bus depot

They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 60 minutes for the James City County and Williamsburg school buses, 45 minutes for Newport News school buses, and 110 minutes for York County school buses. Vehicles evacuating medical facilities will be mobilized in 180 minutes, while buses evacuating the transit-dependent population will be mobilized in 150 minutes extending from the ATE to the time when vehicles first arrive at the facility/route to be serviced.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the SPS EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to Evacuation Assembly Centers (EAC) at emergency action levels of Site Area Emergency or higher, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the EAC.

As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a rapidly escalating accident. This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required. This study assumes that day care centers (operated by schools) are also evacuated to EACs and parents will pick up these children at the EACs. Picking up children at schools or day care centers (operated by schools) could add to traffic congestion at these facilities, delaying Surry Power Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population. It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run (not operated by schools) day care centers prior to evacuation and that the time needed to pick up children is included in mobilization time.

The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:

Estimate demand for transit service (discussed in Section 3)

Estimate time to perform all transit functions

Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the EACs 8.1 ETE for Schools, Day Care Centers, Day Camps, Transit Dependent People, Medical Facilities, and Correctional Facilities The EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating children (if schools and day care centers are in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency. In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat "inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the EAC after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees. For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.

Transportation resources available were reviewed and updated/approved by the EPZ city/county emergency management agencies for use in this study. The transportation resources available, as well as the number of vehicles needed to evacuate schools, day care centers, day camps, medical facilities, correctional facilities, the transit-dependent population, and the access and/or functional needs population (discussed below in Section 8.2) are summarized in Table 8-1. As shown in the table, there are sufficient bus resources to evacuate the entire school/day care center (operated by schools)/day camp population, transit dependent population, correctional facility population, access and/or functional needs population, and ambulatory/wheelchair bound population at medical facilities in the EPZ in a single wave. However, there are not enough ambulances available to evacuate the bedridden people at medical facilities in a single wave.

When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent population should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive along the bus transit route.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations. The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.

Surry Power Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Evacuation of Schools, Day Care Centers, and Day Camps Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A B Cl Mobilization is the elapsed time from the ATE until the time the buses arrive at the school, day care center, or day camp to be evacuated. As discussed above, it is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, bus drivers would require 60 to 110 minutes (varies by city/county) to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the facility to be evacuated. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather - 10 minutes longer in rain/light snow and 20 minutes longer in heavy snow conditions.

Activity: Board Passengers (C D)

As discussed in Sections 2.4 and 2.6, a loading time of 15 minutes for good weather (20 minutes for rain/light snow and 25 minutes for heavy snow) for school/day care/day camp buses is used.

Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D E}

The buses servicing the schools, day care centers, and day camps are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 60 minutes after the ATE (45-minute mobilization time plus a 15-minute loading time) for Newport News in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate EAC. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school/day care center/day camp to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream.

DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5-minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Section 10 in Table 10-2 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations). Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 55 to 60 minutes after the ATE for Newport News for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows:

Average Speed (mi.)

hr Lf= 1 length of link i (mi) 60min.

x---

1 hr .

~n

.£.i=i

{v elay on z*m k. (mm.. ) +

1 length of link i (mi.)

. . (mi.) 60 min.}

x 1 hr.

current speed on lmk l -h r.

The average speed 1 computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools, day care centers, and day camps in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-2 through Table 8-4.

1 A winter, midweek, midday scenario was used for schools and pre-schools as that is when they are in session. A summer, midweek, midday scenario was used for day camps as that is when they are in session.

Surry Power Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the EAC was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 41 mph {10% decrease), and 38 mph {15% decrease) for good weather, rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively. Speeds were reduced in Table 8-2 through Table 8-4 to 45 mph, 41 mph, and 38 mph for good weather, rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively, for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Virginia is 45 mph {see assumption 7 in Section 2.1).

Table 8-2 (good weather), Table 8-3 {rain/light snow) and Table 8-4 {heavy snow) present the following ETE {rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools, day care centers, and day camps in the EPZ:

1) The elapsed time from the ATE until the bus exits the EPZ; and

2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the EAC {Estimated Time of Arrival - ETA-to the EAC).

The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A B C, C D, and D E {For example: 45 minutes + 15 + 82 = 2:25 {rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for General Stanford Elementary School, in good weather).

The average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of schools is 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 55 minutes, while the average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of day care centers and day camps is 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 45 minutes. These ETE are less than the 90th percentile ETE for the general population for an evacuation of the entire EPZ {Region R03) during Scenario 6 conditions. Thus, the evacuation of schools, day care centers, and day camps should not affect protective action decision making.

The ETA to the EAC is determined by adding the time associated with Activity EF {discussed below) to this EPZ evacuation time.

Activity: Travel to EACs (E Fl The distances from the EPZ boundary to the EACs are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the nearest appropriate EAC. The EACs are mapped in Figure 10-9. For a single-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 41 mph, and 38 mph for good weather, rain/light snow, and heavy snow, respectively, are applied for this activity for buses servicing the schools/day care centers/day camps in the EPZ. The ETA to the EAC for each facility is also shown in Table 8-2 through Table 8-4.

Evacuation of Transit-Dependent People (Residents without access to a vehicle)

A detailed computation of the transit dependent people is discussed in Section 3.6. The total number of transit dependent people per PAZ was determined using a weighted distribution based on population {PAZ population divided by EPZ population multiplied by the number of transit-dependent people). The number of buses required to evacuate this population was determined using a capacity of 30 people per bus. KLD designed 46 bus routes to service the major evacuation routes in each PAZ based on the bus route descriptions provided in the Surry Power Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

city/county emergency plans, for the purposes of this study. These routes are described in Table 10-1 and mapped in Figure 10-2 through Figure 10-8. Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along major evacuation routes, then proceed out of the EPZ.

Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A B Cl Mobilization time is the elapsed time from the ATE until the time the buses arrive at their designated route. The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization. As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters),

about 90% percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses begin their routes, at approximately 150 minutes after the ATE. Those residents taking longer to mobilize are assumed to rideshare with a relative, friend or neighbor. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -160 minutes in rain/light snow, 170 minutes in heavy snow conditions.

The ETEs for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Activity: Board Passengers (C D)

For multiple stops along a pick-up route, (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed, "v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T = t + B + t = B + 2 t = B + zv ,

a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers. The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e., pickup time, P) to service passengers is:

V V P=T--=B+-

a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop

v =25 mph =37 ft/sec

a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P : : : 1 minute per stop. Allowing a 30 -minute pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain/light snow and heavy snow; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain/light snow, 50 minutes in heavy snow.

Surry Power Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D E)

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software. Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-5 through Table 8-7 present the transit-dependent population ETE for each bus route calculated using the procedures above for good weather, rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route 1 (Isle of Wight County, Route 1) is computed as 150 +

12 + 30 = 3:15 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for good weather. Here, 12 minutes is the time to travel 9.3 miles at 44.9 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 150 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

The average single-wave ETE (3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months and 55 minutes) for the transit dependent population equals the general population ETE at the 90th percentile ETE for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 6 conditions (winter, midweek, midday, good weather) scenario.

Thus, the evacuation of the transit-dependent population should not impact protect action decision making.

The ETA to the EAC is determined by adding the time associated with Activity EF (discussed below) to this EPZ evacuation time.

Activity: Travel to EACs (E F)

The distances from the EPZ boundary to the EACs are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the EAC. The EACs are mapped in Figure 10-9. For a single-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE.

Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 41 mph, and 38 mph for good weather, rain/light snow, and heavy snow, respectively, are applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population. The estimated time to complete the second wave evacuation are presented in Table 8-5 through Table 8-7. The average second wave ETE (5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 30 minutes) exceed the 90th percentile general population ETE for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 6 conditions (winter, midweek, midday, good weather) and could impact protective action decision making if there are not sufficient buses or drivers to evacuate the transit-dependent population in a single wave.

Evacuation of Medical Facilities There are sufficient transportation resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair-bound patients from medical facilities within the EPZ in a single wave, but there are not enough ambulances to transport the bedridden patients from the medical facilities within the EPZ in a single wave. As such, a second wave computation was performed and is discussed below.

Surry Power Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A B Cl As discussed in Section 2.4 and Section 2.6, it is assumed that the mobilization time for medical facilities averages 180 minutes in good weather, 190 minutes in rain/light snow and 200 minutes in heavy snow.

Activity: Board Passengers (C D)

Item 5 of Section 2.4 discusses transit vehicle loading times for medical facilities. Loading times are assumed to be 1 minute per ambulatory passenger, 5 minutes per wheelchair bound passenger, and 15 minutes per bedridden passenger for ambulances. Item 3 of Section 2.4 discusses transit vehicle capacities to cap loading times per vehicle type assuming concurrent loading of multiple vehicles.

Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D E}

The travel distance along the respective evacuation routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software. Transit vehicle travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-8 through Table 8-10 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain/light snow, and heavy snow. The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. All ETE are rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.

For example, the calculation of ETE for the ambulatory patients at the McDonald Army Health Center during good weather is:

ETE: 180 + 15 x 1 + 25 = 220 min. or 3:40 The average single wave ETE {4:15) for medical facilities in the EPZ exceeds the 90th percentile ETE for the general population {3:55) for a winter, midweek, midday, good weather {Scenario 6) evacuation of the entire EPZ {Region R03) and could impact protective action decision making.

Activity: Vehicles Travel to EACs (E F}. Passengers Leave ff G}. Vehicle Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G C D E}

As shown in Table 8-1, there are insufficient ambulances to evacuate the bedridden patients at the medical facilities in the EPZ. In the absence of data on the location and capacity of host medical facilities, it was assumed that these medical facilities are evacuated to evacuation assembly centers for the PAZ in which that facility is located. The following representative ETE is provided to estimate the additional time needed for a second wave evacuation of bedridden patients in medical facilities using ambulances.

Surry Power Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Times and distances are based on facility-wide averages:

Bedridden patients:

o Ambulance arrives at Host Facility at 4:20 (4:08 average ETE for ambulance to exit the EPZ plus 12 minutes to travel 8.5 miles - average distance to EACs from EPZ boundary at a speed of 45 mph).

o Unload patients at EAC: 15 x 2= 30 minutes.

o Driver takes 10-minute rest: 10 minutes.

o Travel time back to EPZ: 12 minutes (8.5 miles at 45 mph).

o Ambulance returns to facility: 7 minutes to travel back to the facility (average distance to EPZ = 4.6 miles for ambulances from Table 8-8 @ 45 mph).

o Bedridden patients loaded on ambulance: 2 x 15 = 30 minutes.

o Ambulance travels to EPZ boundary: 7 minutes (4.6 miles - average distance to EPZ - @ 45 mph - second wave ambulance is ready to depart at 5:50 when nearly all of the roads in the EPZ are free-flowing).

o Ambulance exits EPZ at time 4:20 + 0:30 + 0:10 + 0:12 + 0:07 + 0:30 + 0:07

= 6:00 (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes) after the ATE.

Thus, the second wave evacuation of bedridden patients requires an additional 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 52 minutes (6:00 - 4:08 = 1:52) relative to the single wave ETE. The average ETE for a second-wave evacuation of bedridden patients (6 hours6.944444e-5 days 0.00167 hours 9.920635e-6 weeks 2.283e-6 months ) exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile (3:55) for a winter, midweek, midday, with good weather (Scenario 6) evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) and could potentially impact protective action decision making.

Evacuation of Correctional Facilities As discussed in assumption 2c in Section 2.4, the correctional facilities in the EPZ will shelter-in-place for most situations but may evacuate if necessary. Both facilities have evacuation plans and transportation resources to evacuate in. The ETE for these facilities is discussed below.

Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A B Cl It is assumed that the mobilization time for correctional facilities averages 150 minutes in good weather, 160 minutes in rain/light snow and 170 minutes in heavy snow.

Activity: Board Passengers (C D)

It is estimated that it takes 60 minutes to load the inmates (2 minutes per inmate) onto a bus (capacity of 30 inmates per bus).

Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D E)

As detailed in Table 8-11, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ - Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center and Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail. The total inmate population at these facilities is 643 persons. As discussed in Section 3.10, a total of 22 buses are needed to evacuate these facilities.

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The shortest route from each facility to the EPZ boundary, traveling away from the plant, was determined using GIS and UNITES. The routes used for each facility are detailed in Table 10-2.

The average speed for each route was computed by DYNEV using the aforementioned procedure for school evacuation. Travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed using the route distance to the EPZ boundary and the speed output by DYNEV.

For example, the ETE for Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center is calculated as follows in good weather:

a. Buses arrive at the facility: 150 minutes

b. Load inmates onto the buses: 30 x 2 = 60 minutes (concurrent loading on multiple buses is assumed

c. Travel to EPZ boundary: 33 minutes (10.4 miles at 18.7 mph - average speed along route computed by DYNEV).

ETE: 150 + 60 + 33 = 4:05 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes)

The average single-wave ETE (4:10) for correctional facilities exceeds the 90th percentile ETE (3:55) for an evacuation of the general population in the entire EPZ (Region R03) under winter, midweek, midday, good weather (Scenario 6) conditions and could impact protective action decision making.

8.2 ETE for Access and/or Functional Needs Population Table 8-12 summarizes the ETE for access and/or functional needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition. The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles (not filled to capacity) to reduce the number of stops per vehicle. It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound households (HH) are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Bus speeds approximate 20 mph between HH in good weather (10% slower in rain/light snow, 15% slower in heavy snow). Mobilization times of 180 minutes were used (190 minutes for rain/light snow, and 200 minutes for heavy snow). Loading times of 5 minutes per person are assumed for ambulatory and wheelchair bound people. The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 45 mph (41 mph for rain/light snow and 38 mph for heavy snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time to the EPZ boundary. The ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first HH, travel to subsequent HH, loading time at subsequent HH, and travel time to the EPZ boundary. All ETE are rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.

Section 3.9 summarizes the number of people with access and/or functional needs who are registered with each city/county in the EPZ. Assuming no more than one access and/or functional needs person per HH implies that 254 ambulatory and 96 wheelchair bound HH need to be serviced. If 25 buses are deployed to service these access and/or functional needs HH, then each bus would require about 10 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations for a bus:

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1. Assume 25 buses are deployed, each with about 10 stops, to service a total of 254 HH.

2. The ETE is calculated as follows:

Buses arrive at the first HH: 180 minutes

Load passenger at first HH: 5 minutes

Travel to subsequent pickup locations: 9 @ 9 minutes (3 miles @ 20 mph) = 81 minutes

Load passenger at subsequent HH: 9@ 5 minutes= 45 minutes

Travel to EPZ boundary: 7 minutes (5 miles @ 45 mph).

ETE: 180 + 5 + 81 + 45 + 7 = 5:20 The single wave ETE for access and/or functional needs population exceeds the 90th percentile ETE for the general population evacuating for the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 6, Scenario 7 and Scenario 8 conditions and could affect protective action decision making.

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Table 8-1. Summary of Transportation Resources Transportation Wheelchair Wheelchair Passenger Mini Resource Buses Vans Buses Vans Ambulances Car Bus/Van Resources Available Newport News Public Schools 305 0 35 0 0 0 0 Surry County 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 York County 160 0 51 0 9 0 0 Isle of Wight County 63 0 14 0 11 0 0 Williamsburg Area Transportation Authority (WATA) 22 0 7 0 0 0 0 WJCC Schools 107 0 53 0 8 0 0 City of Williamsburg 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 Patriots Colony at Williamsburg 0 2 12 33 0 28 0 Williamsburg Landing 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 WindsorMeade Williamsburg 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 Envoy Healthcare 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Greenfield Living Center 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail (VPRJ) 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Fort Eustis 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL: 706 16 178 33 28 28 3 Resources Needed Schools, Day Care Centers, Day Camps (Table 3-8): 423 0 0 0 0 0 0 Medical Facilities (Table 3-6): 46 0 56 0 99 0 0 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 10-1): 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 Access and/or Functional Needs Population (Table 3-9): 25 0 16 0 0 0 0 Correctional Facilities (Section 3.10): 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 Note: York County has access to 3 trolleys which are counted as buses in the table above due to similarities in passenger capacity and usage.

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Table 8-2. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Driver Loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School 45 15 5.4 3.9 82 2:25 3.0 4 2:30 Sanford Elementary School 45 15 2.1 36.3 3 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Warwick River Christian School 45 15 2.5 36.3 4 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 First Baptist Church Denbigh 45 15 1.2 40.6 2 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 BC Charles Elementary School 45 15 1.6 28.2 3 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Menchville High School 45 15 1.3 28.8 3 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Jenkins Elementary School 45 15 0.8 36.4 1 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Katherine Johnson Elementary School 45 15 7.0 3.9 108 2:50 4.4 6 3:00 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School 45 15 3.9 28.1 8 1:10 4.4 6 1:20 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 45 15 5.3 3.6 88 2:30 4.4 6 2:40 David A Dutrow Elementary School 45 15 3.6 4.8 45 1:45 4.4 6 1:55 Mary Passage Middle School 45 15 4.5 4.3 63 2:05 4.4 6 2:15 Stoney Run Elementary School 45 15 3.4 8.7 24 1:25 6.7 9 1:35 Denbigh High School 45 15 3.1 28.3 6 1:10 6.7 9 1:20 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 45 15 1.2 33.5 2 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary 45 15 1.8 3.4 32 1:35 6.7 9 1:45 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School 45 15 1.2 33.5 2 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Woodside High School 45 15 1.2 33.5 2 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Richneck Elementary School 45 15 2.4 4.9 30 1:30 6.7 9 1:40 James River Elementary School 60 15 9.3 11.4 49 2:05 6.0 8 2:15 Magruder Elementary School 110 15 4.4 2.4 110 3:55 23.0 31 4:30 Waller Mill Elementary School 110 15 4.7 4.0 70 3:15 23.0 31 3:50 Bruton High School 110 15 2.4 3.3 44 2:50 23.0 31 3:25 Queens Lake Middle School 110 15 4.5 3.4 79 3:25 23.0 31 4:00 Walsingham Academy (Lower School) 60 15 6.0 4.2 84 2:40 23.0 31 3:15 Walsingham Academy (Upper School) 60 15 6.0 4.2 84 2:40 23.0 31 3:15 College of William and Mary 60 15 4.5 3.5 77 2:35 23.0 31 3:10 Matthew Whaley Elementary School 60 15 4.1 3.6 68 2:25 23.0 31 3:00 Surry Power Station 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Driver loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

Berkeley Middle School 60 15 3.7 16.9 13 1:30 23.8 32 2:05 James Blair Middle School 60 15 2.4 4.5 32 1:50 23.8 32 2:25 laurel Lane Elementary School 60 15 5.2 45.0 7 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School 60 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 DJ Montague Elementary School 60 15 0.5 7.7 4 1:20 3.2 4 1:25 Jamestown High School 60 15 5.9 37.9 9 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Providence Classical School 60 15 5.7 38.2 9 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Matoaka Elementary School 60 15 3.9 2.5 93 2:50 3.2 4 2:55 School Maximum for EPZ: 3:55 School Maximum: 4:30 School Average for EPZ: 1:55 School Average: 2:10 DAY CARE CENTERS2 AND DAY CAMPS Sanford School Age Program 45 15 2.1 36.3 4 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Center 45 15 2.4 33.5 4 1:05 6.7 9 1:15 Denbigh Head Start Center 45 15 2.4 33.5 4 1:05 6.7 9 1:15 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 45 15 2.4 33.4 4 1:05 6.7 9 1:15 B.C. Charles School Age Program 45 15 0.5 38.9 1 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Jenkins School Age Program 45 15 0.8 36.4 1 1:05 3.0 4 1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program 45 15 4.8 3.5 84 2:25 4.4 6 2:35 Nelson School Age Program 45 15 3.9 28.1 8 1:10 4.4 6 1:20 Mary Passage School Age Program 45 15 4.5 4.3 63 2:05 4.4 6 2:15 Epes School Age Program 45 15 3.4 8.7 24 1:25 6.7 9 1:35 Mcintosh School Age Program 45 15 1.8 3.4 32 1:35 6.7 9 1:45 Greenwood School Age Program 45 15 0.7 31.0 1 1:05 13.2 18 1:25 Richneck School Age Program 45 15 2.4 4.9 30 1:30 6.7 9 1:40 York County Head Start 110 15 5.3 2.9 111 4:00 23.0 31 4:35 4-H Camp 60 15 7.2 2.5 169 4:05 3.2 4 4:10 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: 4:05 Day Care/Camp Maximum: 4:35 Day Care/Day Camp Average for EPZ: 1:45 Day Care/Camp Average: 1:55 2 It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation. See Table E-2 in Appendix E for a full list of day care centers in the EPZ.

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Table 8-3. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow Driver Loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School 55 20 5.4 2.5 128 3:25 3.0 4 3:30 Sanford Elementary School 55 20 2.1 2.6 48 2:05 3.0 4 2:10 Warwick River Christian School 55 20 2.5 3.3 44 2:00 3.0 4 2:05 First Baptist Church Denbigh 55 20 1.2 11.3 7 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 BC Charles Elementary School 55 20 1.6 26.5 4 1:20 3.0 4 1:25 Menchville High School 55 20 1.3 12.2 6 1:25 3.0 4 1:30 Jenkins Elementary School 55 20 0.8 3.9 12 1:30 3.0 4 1:35 Katherine Johnson Elementary School 55 20 7.0 4.9 86 2:45 4.4 6 2:55 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School 55 20 3.9 2.1 113 3:10 4.4 6 3:20 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 55 20 5.3 2.7 120 3:15 4.4 6 3:25 David A Dutrow Elementary School 55 20 3.6 2.3 95 2:50 4.4 6 3:00 Mary Passage Middle School 55 20 4.5 2.8 98 2:55 4.4 6 3:05 Stoney Run Elementary School 55 20 3.4 4.0 52 2:10 6.7 10 2:20 Denbigh High School 55 20 3.1 24.9 7 1:25 6.7 10 1:35 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 55 20 1.2 2.5 29 1:45 13.2 19 2:05 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary 55 20 1.8 24.9 4 1:20 6.7 10 1:30 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School 55 20 1.2 20.0 4 1:20 13.2 19 1:40 Woodside High School 55 20 1.2 3.2 22 1:40 13.2 19 2:00 Richneck Elementary School 55 20 2.4 20.8 7 1:25 6.7 10 1:35 James River Elementary School 70 20 9.3 3.7 151 4:05 6.0 9 4:15 Magruder Elementary School 120 20 4.4 3.6 73 3:35 23.0 34 4:10 Waller Mill Elementary School 120 20 4.7 2.8 100 4:00 23.0 34 4:35 Bruton High School 120 20 2.4 2.8 51 3:15 23.0 34 3:50 Queens Lake Middle School 120 20 4.5 4.3 63 3:25 23.0 34 4:00 Walsingham Academy (Lower School) 70 20 6.0 4.2 86 3:00 23.0 34 3:35 Walsingham Academy {Upper School) 70 20 6.0 3.0 118 3:30 23.0 34 4:05 College of William and Mary 70 20 4.5 3.1 88 3:00 23.0 34 3:35 Matthew Whaley Elementary School 70 20 4.1 32.2 8 1:40 23.0 34 2:15 Surry Power Station 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Driver Loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

Berkeley Middle School 70 20 3.7 2.9 77 2:50 23.8 35 3:25 James Blair Middle School 70 20 2.4 41.0 3 1:35 23.8 35 2:10 Laurel Lane Elementary School 70 20 5.2 40.4 8 1:40 3.0 4 1:45 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School 70 20 6.0 2.2 165 4:15 3.0 4 4:20 DJ Montague Elementary School 70 20 0.5 28.0 1 1:35 3.2 5 1:40 Jamestown High School 70 20 5.9 29.4 12 1:45 3.0 4 1:50 Providence Classical School 70 20 5.7 1.6 218 5:10 3.0 4 5:15 Matoaka Elementary School 70 20 3.9 1.5 158 4:10 3.2 5 4:15 School Maximum for EPZ: 5:10 School Maximum: 5:15 School Average for EPZ: 2:35 School Average: 2:50 DAY CARE CENTERS2 AND DAY CAMPS Sanford School Age Program 55 20 2.1 2.6 so 2:05 3.0 4 2:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Center 55 20 2.4 3.9 37 1:55 6.7 10 2:05 Denbigh Head Start Center 55 20 2.4 3.9 37 1:55 6.7 10 2:05 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 55 20 2.4 3.9 37 1:55 6.7 10 2:05 B.C. Charles School Age Program 55 20 0.5 10.4 3 1:20 3.0 4 1:25 Jenkins School Age Program 55 20 0.8 12.0 4 1:20 3.0 4 1:25 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program 55 20 4.8 2.1 139 3:35 4.4 6 3:45 Nelson School Age Program 55 20 3.9 5.5 42 2:00 4.4 6 2:10 Mary Passage School Age Program 55 20 4.5 2.5 108 3:05 4.4 6 3:15 Epes School Age Program 55 20 3.4 2.6 79 2:35 6.7 10 2:45 Mcintosh School Age Program 55 20 1.8 2.4 45 2:00 6.7 10 2:10 Greenwood School Age Program 55 20 0.7 30.2 1 1:20 13.2 19 1:40 Richneck School Age Program 55 20 2.4 3.0 49 2:05 6.7 10 2:15 York County Head Start 120 20 5.3 3.0 108 4:10 23.0 34 4:45 4-H Camp 70 20 5.3 1.7 185 4:35 23.0 34 5:10 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: 4:35 Day Care/Camp Maximum: 5:10 Day Care/ Day Camp Average for EPZ: 2:25 Day Care/Camp Average: 2:40 Surry Power Station 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-4. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow Driver Loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School 65 25 5.4 13.2 24 1:55 3.0 5 2:00 Sanford Elementary School 65 25 2.1 28.0 4 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Warwick River Christian School 65 25 2.5 25.0 6 1:40 3.0 5 1:45 First Baptist Church Denbigh 65 25 1.2 30.5 2 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 BC Charles Elementary School 65 25 1.6 23.4 4 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Menchville High School 65 25 1.3 23.9 3 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Jenkins Elementary School 65 25 0.8 27.6 2 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Katherine Johnson Elementary School 65 25 7.0 11.0 38 2:10 4.4 7 2:20 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School 65 25 3.9 20.2 12 1:45 4.4 7 1:55 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 65 25 5.3 13.3 24 1:55 4.4 7 2:05 David A Dutrow Elementary School 65 25 3.6 11.9 18 1:50 4.4 7 2:00 Mary Passage Middle School 65 25 4.5 11.8 23 1:55 4.4 7 2:05 Stoney Run Elementary School 65 25 3.4 11.7 18 1:50 6.7 11 2:05 Denbigh High School 65 25 3.1 20.6 9 1:40 6.7 11 1:55 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 65 25 1.2 33.5 2 1:35 13.2 21 2:00 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary 65 25 1.8 3.2 34 2:05 6.7 11 2:20 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School 65 25 1.2 33.5 2 1:35 13.2 21 2:00 Woodside High School 65 25 1.2 33.5 2 1:35 13.2 21 2:00 Richneck Elementary School 65 25 2.4 4.3 34 2:05 6.7 11 2:20 James River Elementary School 80 25 9.3 5.5 101 3:30 6.0 10 3:40 Magruder Elementary School 130 25 4.4 1.9 140 4:55 23.0 36 5:35 Waller Mill Elementary School 130 25 4.7 3.4 83 4:00 23.0 36 4:40 Bruton High School 130 25 2.4 2.7 53 3:30 23.0 36 4:10 Queens Lake Middle School 130 25 4.5 2.5 110 4:25 23.0 36 5:05 Walsingham Academy (Lower School) 80 25 6.0 3.9 92 3:20 23.0 36 4:00 Walsingham Academy {Upper School) 80 25 6.0 3.9 92 3:20 23.0 36 4:00 College of William and Mary 80 25 4.5 2.8 98 3:25 23.0 36 4:05 Matthew Whaley Elementary School 80 25 4.1 2.8 89 3:15 23.0 36 3:55 Surry Power Station 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Driver loading Dist. To Average Travel Time Dist. EPZ Travel Time ETA to Mobilization Time EPZ Bdry Speed to EPZ Bdry ETE Bdryto from EPZ Bdry EAC Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) EAC (mi.) to EAC (min) (hr:min)

Berkeley Middle School 80 25 3.7 25.2 9 1:55 23.8 38 2:35 James Blair Middle School 80 25 2.4 4.1 35 2:20 23.8 38 3:00 laurel Lane Elementary School 80 25 5.2 38.0 8 1:55 3.0 5 2:00 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School 80 25 6.0 38.0 9 1:55 3.0 5 2:00 DJ Montague Elementary School 80 25 0.5 4.0 7 1:55 3.2 5 2:00 Jamestown High School 80 25 5.9 38.0 9 1:55 3.0 5 2:00 Providence Classical School 80 25 5.7 38.0 9 1:55 3.0 5 2:00 Matoaka Elementary School 80 25 3.9 1.6 144 4:10 3.2 5 4:15 School Maximum for EPZ: 4:55 School Maximum: 5:35 School Average for EPZ: 2:25 School Average: 2:40 DAY CARE CENTERS2 AND DAY CAMPS Sanford School Age Program 65 25 2.1 28.0 5 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Denbigh Early Childhood Center 65 25 2.4 21.3 7 1:40 6.7 11 1:55 Denbigh Head Start Center 65 25 2.4 21.3 7 1:40 6.7 11 1:55 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 65 25 2.4 21.0 7 1:40 6.7 11 1:55 B.C. Charles School Age Program 65 25 0.5 29.0 1 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Jenkins School Age Program 65 25 0.8 27.6 2 1:35 3.0 5 1:40 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program 65 25 4.8 12.8 23 1:55 4.4 7 2:05 Nelson School Age Program 65 25 3.9 20.2 12 1:45 4.4 7 1:55 Mary Passage School Age Program 65 25 4.5 11.8 23 1:55 4.4 7 2:05 Epes School Age Program 65 25 3.4 11.7 18 1:50 6.7 11 2:05 Mcintosh School Age Program 65 25 1.8 3.2 34 2:05 6.7 11 2:20 Greenwood School Age Program 65 25 0.7 33.3 1 1:35 13.2 21 2:00 Richneck School Age Program 65 25 2.4 4.3 34 2:05 6.7 11 2:20 York County Head Start 130 25 5.3 2.3 139 4:55 23.0 36 5:35 4-H Camp 80 25 7.2 1.8 237 5:45 3.2 5 5:50 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: 5:45 Day Care/Camp Maximum: 5:50 Day Care/Day Camp Average for EPZ: 2:15 Day Care/Camp Average: 2:30 Surry Power Station 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-5. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Driver Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses Time(min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC(min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 1 2 150 9.3 44.9 12 30 3:15 4.3 6 5 10 31 30 4:40 2 1 150 10.7 45.0 14 30 3:15 4.3 6 5 10 34 30 4:40 3 1 150 19.7 45.0 26 30 3:30 4.3 6 5 10 58 30 5:20 4 1 150 15.3 44.0 21 30 3:25 3.9 5 5 10 46 30 5:05 5 2 150 13.1 42.8 18 30 3:20 12.5 17 5 10 52 30 5:15 6 1 150 24.3 45.0 32 30 3:35 3.3 4 5 10 69 30 5:35 7 1 150 12.0 36.1 20 30 3:20 4.2 6 5 10 42 30 4:55 8 1 150 15.0 45.0 20 30 3:20 2.0 3 5 10 43 30 4:55 9 1 150 19.8 45.0 26 30 3:30 3.4 5 5 10 58 30 5:20 10 1 150 13.3 45.0 18 30 3:20 3.3 4 5 10 39 30 4:50 11 1 150 17.3 27.6 38 30 3:40 3.4 5 5 10 74 30 5:45 12 1 150 9.1 41.6 13 30 3:15 2.0 3 5 10 28 30 4:35 13 2 150 17.2 7.6 136 30 5:20 3.3 4 5 10 so 30 7:00 14 1 150 21.4 9.8 132 30 5:15 3.3 4 5 10 61 30 7:05 15 1 150 12.1 29.4 25 30 3:25 3.3 4 5 10 41 30 4:55 16 1 150 5.6 13.2 26 30 3:30 3.3 4 5 10 30 30 4:50 17 1 150 4.4 6.5 41 30 3:45 27.4 36 5 10 48 30 5:55 18 1 150 3.6 10.1 22 30 3:25 27.3 36 5 10 47 30 5:35 19 1 150 4.2 6.8 37 30 3:40 27.3 36 5 10 48 30 5:50 20 1 150 5.2 6.0 52 30 3:55 27.3 36 5 10 51 30 6:10 21 1 150 6.2 4.5 82 30 4:25 27.3 36 5 10 53 30 6:40 22 3 150 13.3 9.8 82 30 4:25 2.5 3 5 10 38 30 5:55 23 3 150 20.4 14.2 87 30 4:30 5.7 8 5 10 63 30 6:30 24 3 150 11.4 8.6 80 30 4:20 2.5 3 5 10 34 30 5:45 25 4 150 10.8 9.1 72 30 4:15 2.5 3 5 10 32 30 5:35 3 See Table 10-1 for a description of the bus routes.

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One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Driver Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses Time(min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC(min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 26 8 150 17.6 10.4 101 30 4:45 2.5 3 5 10 54 30 6:30 27 2 150 11.2 36.2 19 30 3:20 6.0 8 5 10 38 30 4:55 28 2 150 10.5 38.5 16 30 3:20 6.0 8 5 10 36 30 4:50 29 2 150 10.0 36.2 17 30 3:20 6.2 8 5 10 35 30 4:50 30 2 150 6.8 6.7 61 30 4:05 2.9 4 5 10 27 30 5:25 31 2 150 6.2 5.4 69 30 4:10 6.2 8 5 10 27 30 5:30 32 1 150 8.1 6.8 71 30 4:15 6.2 8 5 10 31 30 5:40 33 1 150 7.0 5.6 75 30 4:15 6.2 8 5 10 27 30 5:35 34 1 150 11.7 8.7 80 30 4:20 6.2 8 5 10 41 30 5:55 35 1 150 9.2 8.5 65 30 4:05 2.9 4 5 10 35 30 5:30 36 1 150 4.9 5.3 56 30 4:00 6.2 8 5 10 25 30 5:20 37 1 150 7.6 7.3 62 30 4:05 6.2 8 5 10 33 30 5:35 38 1 150 6.5 9.7 41 30 3:45 6.2 8 5 10 31 30 5:10 39 1 150 7.9 8.9 53 30 3:55 6.2 8 5 10 36 30 5:25 40 1 150 3.6 9.5 23 30 3:25 2.9 4 5 10 16 30 4:30 41 1 150 8.9 7.4 72 30 4:15 6.2 8 5 10 34 30 5:45 42 1 150 5.6 4.3 79 30 4:20 2.9 4 5 10 22 30 5:35 43 1 150 3.4 23.9 9 30 3:10 2.8 4 5 10 15 30 4:15 44 1 150 5.4 4.6 69 30 4:10 6.2 8 5 10 25 30 5:30 45 1 150 5.8 5.0 70 30 4:10 6.2 8 5 10 27 30 5:30 46 1 150 4.1 6.9 36 30 3:40 2.8 4 5 10 18 30 4:50 Maximum ETE: 5:20 Maximum ETE: 7:05 Average ETE: 3:55 Average ETE: 5:30 Surry Power Station 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-6. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 1 2 160 9.3 41.0 14 40 3:35 4.3 6 5 10 32 40 5:10 2 1 160 10.7 41.0 16 40 3:40 4.3 6 5 10 36 40 5:20 3 1 160 19.7 41.0 29 40 3:50 4.3 6 5 10 61 40 5:55 4 1 160 15.3 40.1 23 40 3:45 3.9 6 5 10 49 40 5:35 5 2 160 13.1 39.0 20 40 3:40 12.5 18 5 10 55 40 5:50 6 1 160 24.3 41.0 36 40 4:00 3.3 5 5 10 73 40 6:15 7 1 160 12.0 33.0 22 40 3:45 4.2 6 5 10 44 40 5:30 8 1 160 15.0 41.0 22 40 3:45 2.0 3 5 10 45 40 5:30 9 1 160 19.8 41.0 29 40 3:50 3.4 5 5 10 60 40 5:50 10 1 160 13.3 41.0 19 40 3:40 3.3 5 5 10 42 40 5:25 11 1 160 17.3 17.9 58 40 4:20 3.4 5 5 10 69 40 6:30 12 1 160 9.1 37.8 14 40 3:35 2.0 3 5 10 29 40 5:05 13 2 160 17.2 6.8 152 40 5:55 3.3 5 5 10 54 40 7:50 14 1 160 21.4 8.3 155 40 5:55 3.3 5 5 10 65 40 8:00 15 1 160 12.1 23.5 31 40 3:55 3.3 5 5 10 45 40 5:40 16 1 160 5.6 9.7 35 40 3:55 3.3 5 5 10 33 40 5:30 17 1 160 4.4 3.0 89 40 4:50 27.4 40 5 10 53 40 7:20 18 1 160 3.6 3.1 71 40 4:35 27.3 40 5 10 51 40 7:05 19 1 160 4.2 2.6 97 40 5:00 27.3 40 5 10 53 40 7:30 20 1 160 5.2 3.0 106 40 5:10 27.3 40 5 10 56 40 7:45 21 1 160 6.2 3.0 124 40 5:25 27.3 40 5 10 57 40 8:00 22 3 160 13.3 7.0 114 40 5:15 2.5 4 5 10 41 40 6:55 23 3 160 20.4 13.7 90 40 4:50 5.7 8 5 10 65 40 7:00 24 3 160 11.4 5.8 119 40 5:20 2.5 4 5 10 36 40 6:55 25 4 160 10.8 5.9 110 40 5:10 2.5 4 5 10 34 40 6:45 26 8 160 17.6 7.4 142 40 5:45 2.5 4 5 10 58 40 7:45 27 2 160 11.2 34.0 20 40 3:40 6.0 9 5 10 40 40 5:25 Surry Power Station 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 28 2 160 10.5 39.5 16 40 3:40 6.0 9 5 10 38 40 5:25 29 2 160 10.0 32.2 19 40 3:40 6.2 9 5 10 37 40 5:25 30 2 160 6.8 4.9 83 40 4:45 2.9 4 5 10 23 40 6:10 31 2 160 6.2 4.4 84 40 4:45 6.2 9 5 10 26 40 6:15 32 1 160 8.1 5.8 84 40 4:45 6.2 9 5 10 33 40 6:25 33 1 160 7.0 4.9 85 40 4:45 6.2 9 5 10 29 40 6:20 34 1 160 11.7 6.8 103 40 5:05 6.2 9 5 10 44 40 6:55 35 1 160 9.2 7.4 75 40 4:35 2.9 4 5 10 30 40 6:05 36 1 160 4.9 4.2 70 40 4:30 6.2 9 5 10 23 40 6:00 37 1 160 7.6 5.7 80 40 4:40 6.2 9 5 10 32 40 6:20 38 1 160 6.5 8.1 48 40 4:10 6.2 9 5 10 31 40 5:45 39 1 160 7.9 7.6 63 40 4:25 6.2 9 5 10 32 40 6:05 40 1 160 3.6 9.5 23 40 3:45 2.9 4 5 10 16 40 5:00 41 1 160 8.9 6.3 85 40 4:45 6.2 9 5 10 35 40 6:25 42 1 160 5.6 3.5 96 40 5:00 2.9 4 5 10 21 40 6:20 43 1 160 3.4 22.8 9 40 3:30 2.8 4 5 10 17 40 4:50 44 1 160 5.4 3.7 86 40 4:50 6.2 9 5 10 25 40 6:20 45 1 160 5.8 3.9 89 40 4:50 6.2 9 5 10 27 40 6:25 46 1 160 4.1 6.3 39 40 4:00 2.8 4 5 10 18 40 5:20 Maximum ETE: 5:55 Maximum ETE: 8:00 Average ETE: 4:30 Average ETE: 6:15 Surry Power Station 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-7. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates- Heavy Snow One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 1 2 170 9.3 38.0 15 so 3:55 4.3 7 5 10 34 so 5:45 2 1 170 10.7 38.0 17 so 4:00 4.3 7 5 10 38 so 5:50 3 1 170 19.7 38.0 31 so 4:15 4.3 7 5 10 64 so 6:35 4 1 170 15.3 37.5 24 so 4:05 3.9 6 5 10 51 so 6:10 5 2 170 13.1 37.4 21 so 4:05 12.5 20 5 10 58 so 6:30 6 1 170 24.3 38.0 38 so 4:20 3.3 5 5 10 76 so 6:50 7 1 170 12.0 31.4 23 so 4:05 4.2 7 5 10 47 so 6:05 8 1 170 15.0 38.0 24 so 4:05 2.0 3 5 10 47 so 6:00 9 1 170 19.8 38.0 31 so 4:15 3.4 5 5 10 63 so 6:30 10 1 170 13.3 38.0 21 so 4:05 3.3 5 5 10 44 so 6:00 11 1 170 17.3 16.6 63 so 4:45 3.4 5 5 10 97 so 7:35 12 1 170 9.1 35.5 15 so 3:55 2.0 3 5 10 30 so 5:35 13 2 170 17.2 5.9 173 so 6:35 3.3 5 5 10 55 so 8:40 14 1 170 21.4 7.4 173 so 6:35 3.3 5 5 10 67 so 8:55 15 1 170 12.1 19.8 37 so 4:20 3.3 5 5 10 55 so 6:25 16 1 170 5.6 7.7 44 so 4:25 3.3 5 5 10 46 so 6:25 17 1 170 4.4 6.8 39 so 4:20 27.4 43 5 10 57 so 7:05 18 1 170 3.6 9.7 23 so 4:05 27.3 43 5 10 56 so 6:50 19 1 170 4.2 5.1 49 so 4:30 27.3 43 5 10 58 so 7:20 20 1 170 5.2 4.2 74 so 4:55 27.3 43 5 10 59 so 7:45 21 1 170 6.2 2.7 138 so 6:00 27.3 43 5 10 61 so 8:50 22 3 170 13.3 5.7 139 so 6:00 2.5 4 5 10 43 so 7:55 23 3 170 20.4 10.8 113 so 5:35 5.7 9 5 10 69 so 8:00 24 3 170 11.4 5.1 134 so 5:55 2.5 4 5 10 38 so 7:45 25 4 170 10.8 5.3 123 so 5:45 2.5 4 5 10 36 so 7:30 26 8 170 17.6 6.9 153 so 6:15 2.5 4 5 10 60 so 8:25 27 2 170 11.2 38.0 18 so 4:00 6.0 9 5 10 42 so 6:00 Surry Power Station 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

One-Wave Two-Wave Route Route Route Travel Pickup Travel Driver Travel Pickup Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE Distance to Time to Unload Rest Time Time ETE Number3 of Buses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) EAC(miles) EAC (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min) 28 2 170 10.5 38.0 17 50 4:00 6.0 9 5 10 39 50 5:55 29 2 170 10.0 38.0 16 50 4:00 6.2 10 5 10 39 50 5:55 30 2 170 6.8 3.7 109 50 5:30 2.9 5 5 10 30 50 7:10 31 2 170 6.2 3.1 118 50 5:40 6.2 10 5 10 33 50 7:30 32 1 170 8.1 4.6 105 50 5:25 6.2 10 5 10 39 50 7:20 33 1 170 7.0 3.7 112 50 5:35 6.2 10 5 10 35 50 7:25 34 1 170 11.7 5.1 136 50 6:00 6.2 10 5 10 46 50 8:05 35 1 170 9.2 4.6 119 50 5:40 2.9 5 5 10 38 50 7:30 36 1 170 4.9 3.0 99 50 5:20 6.2 10 5 10 28 50 7:05 37 1 170 7.6 4.0 114 50 5:35 6.2 10 5 10 38 50 7:30 38 1 170 6.5 5.5 71 50 4:55 6.2 10 5 10 34 50 6:45 39 1 170 7.9 5.0 94 50 5:15 6.2 10 5 10 40 50 7:10 40 1 170 3.6 4.5 48 50 4:30 2.9 5 5 10 22 50 6:05 41 1 170 8.9 4.7 115 50 5:35 6.2 10 5 10 44 50 7:35 42 1 170 5.6 2.3 148 50 6:10 2.9 5 5 10 23 50 7:45 43 1 170 3.4 25.0 8 50 3:50 2.8 4 5 10 17 50 5:20 44 1 170 5.4 2.5 129 50 5:50 6.2 10 5 10 29 50 7:35 45 1 170 5.8 2.7 129 50 5:50 6.2 10 5 10 31 50 7:40 46 1 170 4.1 5.2 48 50 4:30 2.8 4 5 10 25 50 6:05 MaximumETE: 6:35 MaximumETE: 8:55 Average ETE: 5:00 Average ETE: 7:00 Surry Power Station 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-8. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Travel Time Loading Rate to EPZ Mobilization (min per Total Loading Dist. To EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 180 1 15 15 5.5 25 3:40 McDonald Army Health Center Wheelchair bound 180 5 10 50 5.5 11 4:05 Bedridden 180 15 3 30 5.5 17 3:50 Ambulatory 180 1 45 30 0.6 2 3:35 Mennowood Retirement Community Wheelchair bound 180 5 29 60 0.6 1 4:05 Bedridden 180 15 9 30 0.6 2 3:35 Ambulatory 180 1 55 30 1.3 20 3:50 Charter Senior living of Newport News Wheelchair bound 180 5 35 60 1.3 3 4:05 Bedridden 180 15 11 30 1.3 20 3:50 Ambulatory 180 1 2 2 7.2 52 3:55 Morningside of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 30 60 7.2 14 4:15 Bedridden 180 15 30 30 7.2 34 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 30 30 8.4 35 4:05 Colonial Manor Senior Community Wheelchair bound 180 5 30 60 8.4 16 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 4 30 8.4 35 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 75 30 4.3 45 4:15 Commonwealth Senior living Wheelchair bound 180 5 25 60 4.3 19 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 2 30 4.3 45 4:15 Ambulatory 180 1 146 30 3.1 31 4:05 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound 180 5 6 30 3.1 31 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 20 20 8.6 44 4:05 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 13 60 8.6 19 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 4 30 8.6 37 4:10 Wheelchair bound 180 5 130 60 2.8 13 4:15 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden 180 15 20 30 2.8 31 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 46 30 4.6 31 4:05 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 4 20 4.6 39 4:00 Ambulatory 180 1 65 30 0.8 16 3:50 Greenfield Senior living of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 10 50 0.8 11 4:05 Surry Power Station 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Travel Time Loading Rate to EPZ Mobilization (min per Total Loading Dist. To EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 180 1 90 30 6.1 36 4:10 Williamsburg Landing Wheelchair bound 180 5 33 60 6.1 18 4:20 Bedridden 180 15 5 30 6.1 36 4:10 Ambulatory 180 1 241 30 2.6 30 4:00 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 34 60 2.6 12 4:15 Bedridden 180 15 9 30 2.6 30 4:00 Ambulatory 180 1 11 11 5.1 45 4:00 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 22 60 5.1 14 4:15 Ambulatory 180 1 58 30 3.5 31 4:05 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound 180 5 20 60 3.5 12 4:15 Ambulatory 180 1 215 30 2.8 32 4:05 Eastern State Hospital Wheelchair bound 180 5 20 60 2.8 13 4:15 Bedridden 180 15 30 30 2.8 32 4:05 Ambulatory 180 1 28 28 0.5 24 3:55 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place Wheelchair bound 180 5 18 60 0.5 10 4:10 Bedridden 180 15 6 30 0.5 24 3:55 Ambulatory 180 1 5 5 8.4 110 4:55 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound 180 5 6 30 8.4 89 5:00 Wheelchair bound 180 5 43 60 8.4 69 5:10 Consulate Health Care Bedridden 180 15 44 30 8.4 89 5:00 Ambulatory 180 1 374 30 5.5 87 5:00 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 180 5 50 60 5.5 67 5:10 Bedridden 180 15 16 30 5.5 87 5:00 Maximum ETE: 5:10 Average ETE: 4:15 Surry Power Station 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-9. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow Loading Rate Total Travel Time to Mobilization (min per Loading Dist. To EPZ EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 190 1 15 15 5.5 43 4:10 McDonald Army Health Center Wheelchair bound 190 5 10 so 5.5 19 4:20 Bedridden 190 15 3 30 5.5 28 4:10 Ambulatory 190 1 45 30 0.6 1 3:45 Mennowood Retirement Community Wheelchair bound 190 5 29 60 0.6 1 4:15 Bedridden 190 15 9 30 0.6 1 3:45 Ambulatory 190 1 55 30 1.3 23 4:05 Charter Senior Living of Newport News Wheelchair bound 190 5 35 60 1.3 8 4:20 Bedridden 190 15 11 30 1.3 23 4:05 Ambulatory 190 1 2 2 7.2 55 4:10 Morningside of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 30 60 7.2 20 4:30 Bedridden 190 15 30 30 7.2 37 4:20 Ambulatory 190 1 30 30 8.4 39 4:20 Colonial Manor Senior Community Wheelchair bound 190 5 30 60 8.4 19 4:30 Bedridden 190 15 4 30 8.4 39 4:20 Ambulatory 190 1 75 30 4.3 42 4:25 Commonwealth Senior Living Wheelchair bound 190 5 25 60 4.3 17 4:30 Bedridden 190 15 2 30 4.3 42 4:25 Ambulatory 190 1 146 30 3.1 64 4:45 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound 190 5 6 30 3.1 64 4:45 Ambulatory 190 1 20 20 8.6 74 4:45 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 13 60 8.6 35 4:45 Bedridden 190 15 4 30 8.6 60 4:40 Wheelchair bound 190 5 130 60 2.8 30 4:40 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden 190 15 20 30 2.8 59 4:40 Ambulatory 190 1 46 30 4.6 63 4:45 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 4 20 4.6 68 4:40 Ambulatory 190 1 65 30 0.8 38 4:20 Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 10 so 0.8 24 4:25 Williamsburg Landing Ambulatory 190 1 90 30 6.1 58 4:40 Surry Power Station 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Loading Rate Total Travel Time to Mobilization (min per Loading Dist. To EPZ EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Wheelchair bound 190 5 33 60 6.1 34 4:45 Bedridden 190 15 5 30 6.1 58 4:40 Ambulatory 190 1 241 30 2.6 64 4:45 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 34 60 2.6 36 4:50 Bedridden 190 15 9 30 2.6 64 4:45 Ambulatory 190 1 11 11 5.1 70 4:35 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 22 60 5.1 34 4:45 Ambulatory 190 1 58 30 3.5 60 4:40 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound 190 5 20 60 3.5 42 4:55 Ambulatory 190 1 215 30 2.8 58 4:40 Eastern State Hospital Wheelchair bound 190 5 20 60 2.8 32 4:45 Bedridden 190 15 30 30 2.8 58 4:40 Ambulatory 190 1 28 28 0.5 32 4:10 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place Wheelchair bound 190 5 18 60 0.5 23 4:35 Bedridden 190 15 6 30 0.5 32 4:15 Ambulatory 190 1 5 5 8.4 138 5:35 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound 190 5 6 30 8.4 118 5:40 Wheelchair bound 190 5 43 60 8.4 97 5:50 Consulate Health Care Bedridden 190 15 44 30 8.4 118 5:40 Ambulatory 190 1 374 30 5.5 116 5:40 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 190 5 50 60 5.5 95 5:45 Bedridden 190 15 16 30 5.5 116 5:40 Maximum ETE: 5:50 Average ETE: 4:40 Surry Power Station 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-10. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow Loading Rate Total Travel Time to Mobilization (min per Loading Dist. To EPZ EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 200 1 15 15 5.5 64 4:40 McDonald Army Health Center Wheelchair bound 200 5 10 so 5.5 38 4:50 Bedridden 200 15 3 30 5.5 52 4:45 Ambulatory 200 1 45 30 0.6 1 3:55 Mennowood Retirement Community Wheelchair bound 200 5 29 60 0.6 1 4:25 Bedridden 200 15 9 30 0.6 1 3:55 Ambulatory 200 1 55 30 1.3 33 4:25 Charter Senior Living of Newport News Wheelchair bound 200 5 35 60 1.3 29 4:50 Bedridden 200 15 11 30 1.3 33 4:25 Ambulatory 200 1 2 2 7.2 83 4:45 Morningside of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 30 60 7.2 56 5:20 Bedridden 200 15 30 30 7.2 69 5:00 Ambulatory 200 1 30 30 8.4 70 5:00 Colonial Manor Senior Community Wheelchair bound 200 5 30 60 8.4 58 5:20 Bedridden 200 15 4 30 8.4 70 5:00 Ambulatory 200 1 75 30 4.3 84 5:15 Commonwealth Senior Living Wheelchair bound 200 5 25 60 4.3 65 5:25 Bedridden 200 15 2 30 4.3 84 5:15 Ambulatory 200 1 146 30 3.1 78 5:10 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound 200 5 6 30 3.1 78 5:10 Ambulatory 200 1 20 20 8.6 83 5:05 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 13 60 8.6 59 5:20 Bedridden 200 15 4 30 8.6 79 5:10 Wheelchair bound 200 5 130 60 2.8 48 5:10 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden 200 15 20 30 2.8 66 5:00 Ambulatory 200 1 46 30 4.6 72 5:05 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 4 20 4.6 92 5:15 Ambulatory 200 1 65 30 0.8 30 4:20 Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 10 so 0.8 20 4:30 Williamsburg Landing Ambulatory 200 1 90 30 6.1 78 5:10 Surry Power Station 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Loading Rate Total Travel Time to Mobilization (min per Loading Dist. To EPZ EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Wheelchair bound 200 5 33 60 6.1 54 5:15 Bedridden 200 15 5 30 6.1 78 5:10 Ambulatory 200 1 241 30 2.6 66 5:00 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 34 60 2.6 47 5:10 Bedridden 200 15 9 30 2.6 66 5:00 Ambulatory 200 1 11 11 5.1 80 4:55 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 22 60 5.1 54 5:15 Ambulatory 200 1 58 30 3.5 71 5:05 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound 200 5 20 60 3.5 58 5:20 Ambulatory 200 1 215 30 2.8 73 5:05 Eastern State Hospital Wheelchair bound 200 5 20 60 2.8 50 5:10 Bedridden 200 15 30 30 2.8 73 5:05 Ambulatory 200 1 28 28 0.5 26 4:15 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place Wheelchair bound 200 5 18 60 0.5 29 4:50 Bedridden 200 15 6 30 0.5 26 4:20 Ambulatory 200 1 5 5 8.4 188 6:35 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound 200 5 6 30 8.4 165 6:35 Wheelchair bound 200 5 43 60 8.4 143 6:45 Consulate Health Care Bedridden 200 15 44 30 8.4 165 6:35 Ambulatory 200 1 374 30 5.5 163 6:35 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound 200 5 50 60 5.5 141 6:45 Bedridden 200 15 16 30 5.5 163 6:35 Maximum ETE: 6:45 Average ETE: 5:10 Surry Power Station 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-11. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates Travel Loading Time to Rate Total EPZ Mobilization Number (min per Number of Loading Dist. To EPZ Boundary ETE Correctional Facility Weather Conditions (min) of Buses person) Inmates Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Good 150 33 4:05 Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center Rain 160 2 2 48 60 10.4 40 4:20 Snow 170 65 4:55 Good 150 11 3:45 Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail Rain 160 20 2 595 60 8.1 12 3:55 Snow 170 13 4:05 Maximum ETE: 4:55 Average ETE: 4:10 Table 8-12. Access and/or Functional Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Total Travel Mobiliza- Loading Loading Time to People tion Time at Travel to Time at EPZ Requiring Vehicles Weather Time l51 Stop Subsequent Subsequent Boundary ETE Vehicle Type Vehicle deployed Stops Conditions (min) (min) Stops (min) Stops (min) (min) (hr:min)

Good 180 81 7 5:20 Buses 254 25 10 Rain 190 5 90 45 7 5:40 Snow 200 99 8 6:00 Good 180 45 7 4:25 Wheelchair Buses 96 16 6 Rain 190 5 so 25 7 4:40 Snow 200 55 8 4:55 Maximum ETE: 6:00 Average ETE: 5:10 Surry Power Station 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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(Subsequent Wave)

Time Event A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Evacuation Assembly Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Evacuation Assembly Center G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Activity AB Driver Mobilization BC Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route CD Passengers Board the Bus DE Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary EF Bus Travels Towards Evacuation Assembly Center Outside the EPZ FG Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Surry Power Station 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested Traffic Management Plan (TMP) that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:

Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T provides guidance for Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. All state and most city/county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.

A plan that defines all Traffic and Access Control Point (TCP/ACP) locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.

The functions to be performed in the field are:

1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.

2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.

The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example:

A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.

The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.

The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.

The TMP is the outcome of the following process:

1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified in the city/county emergency plans serve as the basis of the TMP, as per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.

2. Evacuation simulations were run using DYNEV II to predict traffic congestion during evacuation (see Section 7.3 and Figures 7-3 through 7-8).

3. The existing TCPs and ACPs defined in the existing TMP, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.

4. These simulations help to identify the best routing and critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion during evacuation. No additional TCPs and ACPs Surry Power Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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were identified which would benefit the ETE as part of this study. See Appendix G for more detail.

5. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.

Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/county emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

Appendix G documents the existing TMP and a list of TCPs and/or ACPs using the process enumerated above.

9.1 Assumptions

The ETE calculations documented in Section 7 and 8 assume that the TMP is implemented during evacuation.

The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months have elapsed from the ATE.

All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personal manning TCPs and ACPs.

Study assumptions 1 through 3 in Section 2.5 discuss TCP and ACP operations.

9.2 Additional Considerations The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and EAC information. DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees during egress through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while the on board navigation systems (GPS units), and smartphones can be used to provide information during the evacuation trip.

These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process.

Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.

Surry Power Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

10 EVACUATION ROUTES AND EVACUATION ASSEMBLY CENTERS 10.1 Evacuation Routes Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

Routing from a PAZ being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.

Routing of transit-dependent evacuees (schools, day cares centers (operated by schools), day camps, medical facilities, correctional facilities, and residents who do not own or have access to a private vehicle) from the EPZ boundary to the Evacuation Assembly Centers (EACs).

Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.

This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant to the extent practicable. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible. See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are shown in Figure 10-1. These routes will be used by the general population evacuating in private vehicles, and by the transit-dependent population evacuating in buses, wheelchair buses/vans, and ambulances. Transit-dependent evacuees will be routed to EACs. General population may evacuate to either an EAC or some alternate destination (i.e., lodging facility, relative's home, campground) outside the EPZ.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to EACs is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.

Table 10-1 summarizes the transit-dependent bus routes servicing the EPZ. These bus routes are mapped by city/county in Figure 10-2 through Figure 10-8.

It is assumed that residents will walk to these routes to flag down a bus, and that they can arrive at the roadway within the 150-minute bus mobilization time (good weather).

Schools, day care centers (operated by schools), day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities were routed along the most likely path from the facility being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the EAC, in order to compute ETE.

The specified bus routes for all the transit-dependent population are documented in Table 10-2 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Surry Power Station 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

10.2 Evacuation Assembly Centers Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest EAC for each city/county.

The Radiological Emergency Response Plan (RERP) for the Commonwealth of Virginia indicates evacuees will be received, monitored for contamination, decontaminated, if necessary, and provided with emergency medical and nursing coverage, clothing, and supplies at the EACs.

Table 10-3 presents a list of the EACs for each school, day care center (operated by schools),

and day camp in the EPZ. It is assumed that all school/day care center/camp evacuees will be taken to the appropriate EAC and subsequently be picked up by parents or guardians.

Figure 10-9 presents an overview of the general population EACs (listed in the public information and the city/county/state RERP) servicing the EPZ. Note EACs serve both the transit-dependent population and the general public.

Surry Power Station 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 10-1. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No. of Length Route Buses Route Description (mi.)

1 2 Isle of Wight County, Route 1 9.3 2 1 Isle of Wight County, Route 2 10.7 3 1 Isle of Wight County, Route 3 19.7 4 1 Isle of Wight County, Route 4 15.3 5 2 Surry County, Route 1 13.1 6 1 Surry County, Route 2 24.3 7 1 Surry County, Route 3 12.0 8 1 Surry County, Route 4 15.0 9 1 Surry County, Route 5 19.8 10 1 Surry County, Route 6 13.3 11 1 Surry County, Route 7 17.3 12 1 Surry County, Route 8 9.1 13 2 York County, Route 1 17.2 14 1 York County, Route 2 21.4 15 1 York County, Route 3 12.1 16 1 York County, Route 4 5.6 17 1 City of Williamsburg, Route 1 4.4 18 1 City of Williamsburg, Route 2 3.6 19 1 City of Williamsburg, Route 3 4.2 20 1 City of Williamsburg, Route 4 5.2 21 1 City of Williamsburg, Route 5 6.2 22 3 James City County, Route 1 13.3 23 3 James City County, Route 2 20.4 24 3 James City County, Route 3 11.4 25 4 James City County, Route 4 10.8 26 8 James City County, Route 5 17.6 27 2 City of Newport News, Route D-1 11.2 28 2 City of Newport News, Route D-2 10.5 29 2 City of Newport News, Route E-1 10.0 30 2 City of Newport News, Route E-2 6.8 31 2 City of Newport News, Route E-3 6.2 32 1 City of Newport News, Route E-4 8.1 33 1 City of Newport News, Route E-5 7.0 34 1 City of Newport News, Route E-6 11.7 35 1 City of Newport News, Route F-1 9.2 36 1 City of Newport News, Route F-2 4.9 37 1 City of Newport News, Route F-3 7.6 38 1 City of Newport News, Route F-4 6.5 39 1 City of Newport News, Route F-5 7.9 Surry Power Station 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

No. of Length Route Buses Route Description (mi.)

40 1 City of Newport News, Route F-6 3.6 41 1 City of Newport News, Route F-7 8.9 42 1 City of Newport News, Route F-8 5.6 43 1 City of Newport News, Route F-9 3.4 44 1 City of Newport News, Route F-10 5.4 45 1 City of Newport News, Route F-11 5.8 46 1 City of Newport News, Route F-12 4.1 Total: 70 Surry Power Station 10-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 10-2. Bus Route Descriptions Bus Route Number Description Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary 1 Isle of Wight County, Route 1 1337, 1845, 1846,1844, 1847, 1848,945,1013,946, 1014,947 2 Isle of Wight County, Route 2 944,945,1013,946,1014,947 3 Isle of Wight County, Route 3 942,943,944,945,1013,946,1014,947 4 Isle of Wight County, Route 4 1316, 1024, 1022,1338, 1021, 1023,1352, 1004 931,1309,930,1310, 1311, 1057, 1812,1056, 1313, 1314, 1810, 1809,1918, 5 Surry County, Route 1 1025, 976, 1316 939,938,937,936,935,934,933,932,1308,931,1907,941, 1012,930, 1260, 6 Surry County, Route 2 1908, 1052, 1051, 1261,1271, 1909, 1050,1049, 1262, 1913,1914, 1924, 1259, 1047, 1258, 1048, 1813,1030, 1084, 1923,1083 1271,1272, 1916, 1273, 1274,1915, 1275, 1276, 1277, 1278,1279, 1280,1281, 7 Surry County, Route 3 1282, 1029 941,1012,930,1260, 1908, 1052, 1051,1261, 1271, 1909, 1050, 1049,1262, 8 Surry County, Route 4 1913, 1914, 1924, 1259,1047, 1258, 1048,1813, 1030, 1084,1923, 1083 1263,1912, 1911, 1910, 1262,1913, 1914, 1924, 1259, 1047,1258, 1048,1813, 9 Surry County, Route 5 1030, 1084, 1923, 1083 10 Surry County, Route 6 1047, 1258, 1048,1813, 1030,1087, 1282,1029 11 Surry County, Route 7 1270, 1919, 1920,1047, 1258,1048, 1813,1030, 1084,1923, 1083, 1085 12 Surry County, Route 8 1045, 1044, 1035,1036, 1081,1284 245,246,241,242,354,355,356,357,358,359,350,1216,360,361,362,363, 13 York County, Route 1 364,365,366,367,368,369,370,373,673,674 250,248, 1892,1893, 1894,339,1895, 1896, 1218, 1888,341,1889, 1890, 1891, 308, 1225, 309,342, 1781,353,1780,432, 345,344,346,1219, 1221,347,1214, 14 York County, Route 2 348,349,1215,350, 1216,360,361,362,363, 364,365,366,367,368,369,370, 373,673,674 309,310, 1234,410,430,433, 1876,438,436,434,377,1236, 1905,378,1557, 15 York County, Route 3 379, 1558, 1237,376,675,385 16 York County, Route 4 1239,379,1558, 1237,376,675,385 215,221,1121,176,1117, 1111,1107,1108,1109,1110,1135,1136,1137,185, 17 City of Williamsburg, Route 1 184, 183,1141, 123, 1157,33,1792,34,35 18 City of Williamsburg, Route 2 226,228,189,218,1533, 188,187, 176,1122, 193,1125, 1126,180, 198,255 335,336,337,219,216,214,215,221,1121,176,1122, 193, 1125,1126,180, 19 City of Williamsburg, Route 3 198,255,256,112,118 223,226,228,189,218,1533,188,187,176,1122, 193,1125, 1126, 180, 198, 20 City of Williamsburg, Route 4 255,256,112, 118 258,257, 1797,208,1092, 1796,191, 194,1124, 193,1125, 1126,180, 198,255, 21 City of Williamsburg, Route 5 256,112,118 319,318,320,321,322,323,1777, 1778, 1779,306,1775,312,311,1223,225, 22 James City County, Route 1 1094, 1096, 1095,253,224,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796, 191,194, 1124, 193,1125, 1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 Surry Power Station 10-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0

Bus Route Number Description Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary 313, 1774, 1227,315,326,327, 1772,429,1751,411,1235,416,419,426,421, 425,423,1898,464, 1900,461,458,460,457,455,445,441,447,442,444,439, 23 James City County, Route 2 1556, 1769,377,434,436,18, 17, 16, 1725,414,15, 14,431, 13, 12,11, 1726, 1727, 10,9, 78,8, 7 305,324,1778, 1779,306,1775,312,311,1223,225, 1094, 1096,1095,253, 24 James City County, Route 3 224,258,257,1797,208,1092,1796, 191,194, 1124,193,1125, 1126,180,198, 255,256,112,118 1536, 1534,303,304,305,324, 1778, 1779,306,1775,312,311,1223,225, 25 James City County, Route 4 1094, 1096, 1095,253,224,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796, 191,194, 1124, 193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 279, 1886, 1179,263,260,264, 1100,214,215,221,1121,176,1122, 193,1125, 26 James City County, Route 5 1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 457,455,445,441, 1856,448,454,451,510,1449,511,509,1453,505,507, 27 City of Newport News, Route D-1 508,502,1452,506,22,23,24, 1437 378,1905, 1236,377,1770,1447,512, 1765,1767, 1438, 1439,1440, 1441,22, 28 City of Newport News, Route D-2 23,24, 1437 1454,499,1457,497,495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520,1518,571,564, 29 City of Newport News, Route E-1 560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 492,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569, 1512,590,1483, 30 City of Newport News, Route E-2 600,591,1747,594,595 492,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569, 1512,590,599, 31 City of Newport News, Route E-3 608, 1481,592 521,1469, 1470,527,528,554,553,551,1739, 1524, 713,1737, 1474,1736, 32 City of Newport News, Route E-4 592 33 City of Newport News, Route E-5 527,528,554,553,551,1739,1524, 713,1737,1474,1736,592 520,521,1469,1470,527,528,554,553,551,1739, 1524, 713, 1737,1474, 34 City of Newport News, Route E-6 1736,592 566,565,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,1747,594, 35 City of Newport News, Route F-1 595 36 City of Newport News, Route F-2 1519,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 576,575,1458,574,573,572, 1461,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569, 1512, 37 City of Newport News, Route F-3 590,599,608,1481,592 576,578,579,1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481, 38 City of Newport News, Route F-4 592 39 City of Newport News, Route F-5 1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 40 City of Newport News, Route F-6 590,1483,600,591,1747,594,595 41 City of Newport News, Route F-7 568,1465,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 42 City of Newport News, Route F-8 589,586, 1746,591,1747,594,595 43 City of Newport News, Route F-9 593,1484,595 44 City of Newport News, Route F-10 584,583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592 45 City of Newport News, Route F-11 581,583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592 46 City of Newport News, Route F-12 587,596,597,598,593,1484,595 Surry Power Station 10-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Bus Route Number Description Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary General Stanford Elementary 475,479,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515, 47 School 569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 Sanford Elementary School, 48 Sanford School Age Program, 583,589,586,1746,591,1747,594,595 Warwick River Christian School 49 First Baptist Church Denbigh 599,600,591, 1747,594,595 so BC Charles Elementary School 596,597,598,593,1484,595 51 Menchville High School 598,593,1484,595 Jenkins Elementary School, Jenkins 52 1482,594,595 School Age Program 1856,448,454,451,510,1449,511,509, 1453,SOS,501,1454,499,1457,497, Katherine Johnson Elementary 53 495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515, School 569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 Knollwood Meadows Elementary 578,579,1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747, 54 School, Nelson School Age 594,595 Program 496,495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 55 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 1515,569, 1512,590, 1483,600,591,1747,594,595 494,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600, 56 David A Dutrow Elementary School 591, 1747,594,595 Mary Passage Middle School, Mary 491,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,1483, 57 Passage School Age Program 600,591,1747,594,595 Stoney Run Elementary School, 1461,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,1747,594, 58 Epes School Age Program 595 59 Denbigh High School 580,563,555, 1515,569,1512,590, 1483,600,591,1747,594,595 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School, Woodside High School, 60 526,539,513,535 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy George J McIntosh Elementary, 61 528,554,553,551,1739, 1524, 713,1737, 1474, 1736,592,602 Mcintosh School Age Program Richneck Elementary School, 62 527,528,554,553,551, 1739, 1524, 713,1737,1474, 1736,592,602 Richneck School Age Program 463,423,425,421,426,419,416,1235,411,427,413,1231,417,418,14,431, 63 James River Elementary School 13, 12, 11, 1726, 1727, 10, 9, 78, 8, 7 64 Magruder Elementary School 250,1528,1784, 1785, 1786,213,212,210,211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 65 Waller Mill Elementary School 196, 195,194,191,1092,208,1798, 1091,1211,209, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 66 Bruton High School 79, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 67 Queens Lake Middle School 246,241,243,239,244,210,211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 Surry Power Station 10-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0

Bus Route Number Description Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary Walsingham Academy (Upper 261,260,264,1100,214,215,1102,218,189, 1531,190,202,203,1799,208, 68 School), Walsingham Academy 1798, 1091, 1211,209, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 (Lower School)

Matthew Whaley Elementary 69 School, College of William and 189, 1531, 190,202,203, 1799,208,1798, 1091,1211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 Mary 1794,172,171,170,169,168, 1164,167,166,1163,31, 1795,32,33,1792,34, 70 Berkeley Middle School 35 71 James Blair Middle School 182,200, 1899, 183,1141, 123,1157,33,1792,34,35 1536, 1534,263,1823, 1824,262,1790, 1791,1825, 1165,30,31,1795,32,33, 72 Laurel Lane Elementary School 1792,34,35 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary 1089, 159,283,282,281,1176,262,1790, 1791,1825, 1165,30,31,1795,32, 73 School 33, 1792,34,35 74 DJ Montague Elementary School 149,148,130 1171,273,1173,1172,276,275,274,1160,152,161,162,165,166,1163,31, 75 Jamestown High School 1795,32,33,1792,34,35 1172,276,275,274, 1160,152, 161,162,165,167,166, 1163,31,1795,32,33, 76 Providence Classical School 1792,34,35 77 Matoaka Elementary School 1169, 1167,1901,146,1826,1155, 147,149,148,130 Denbigh Early Childhood Center, 78 563,555,1515,569, 1512,590,1483,600,591,1747,594,595 Denbigh Head Start Center 79 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 555,1515,569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 80 B.C. Charles School Age Program 1486,594, 595 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids 495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518, 571,564,560,559,555, 1515, 81 Program 569, 1512, 590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 82 Greenwood School Age Program 539,513,535 340,1218, 1896, 1895,339, 1894, 1893, 1892,248,250, 1528, 1784, 1785,236, 83 York County Head Start 1786,213,212,210,211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 84 4-H Camp 1183,266,267,268,270,145,1167, 1901, 146,1826,1155, 147,149,148,130 476,480,503,504,501,1454,499,1457,497,495,482,478,485,487,490,493, 85 McDonald Army Health Center 1520,1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,1747, 594,595 Mennowood Retirement 86 594,595,908 Community Charter Senior Living of Newport 87 552,551, 1739,1524, 713,1737, 1474,1736,592,602 News 312,1560, 1224,331,342,1781,353, 1780,432,345,344,13, 12, 11,1726, 88 Morningside of Williamsburg 1727,10,9, 78,8, 7 419,416,1235,411,427,413,1231,417,418, 14, 431, 13, 12, 11, 1726, 1727, 89 Colonial Manor Senior Community 10, 9, 78, 8, 7 90 Commonwealth Senior Living 192,191,1092,208,1798,1091, 1211,209, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 91 Verena At The Reserve 195,194,1124,193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 Surry Power Station 10-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Bus Route Number Description Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary 325,324,1778, 1779,306,1224,331,1782,309,1783, 1225,308,307,250, Riverside Doctors' Hospital 92 1528, 1784, 1785,236,1787,237,224,258,257, 1797,208,1092,1796, 191, Williamsburg 194,1124,193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 93 Envoy of Williamsburg 1111,1117,176,1122,193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 244,1555,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796,191,194,1124, 193,1125, 1126, 94 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg 180,198,255,256,112,118 Greenfield Senior Living of 95 256,112,118 Williamsburg 1536, 1534,263,260,264,1100,214,215,221, 1121,176,1122, 193,1125, 96 Williamsburg Landing 1126, 180,198,255,256,112,118 97 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg 1108,1109, 1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 163, 162,165,167,1164, 168,169,170,171,172, 1120,1106, 1107,1108, 1109, 98 WindsorMeade Williamsburg 1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 99 Edgeworth Park at New Town 1128,177,1877,178,1793,1135,1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 100 Eastern State Hospital 201,179,1135,1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 101 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place 111,112,118 English Meadows Williamsburg 301,300,1552, 1184,1183,266,267,268,270,145,1167,1901, 146, 1826, 102 Campus, Consulate Health Care 1155, 147,149,148,130 The Convalescent at Patriots 103 270, 145,1167, 1901,146,1826, 1155,147,149, 148,130 Colony-Williamsburg Merrimac Juvenile Detention 433,430,410,1234,310,309, 1783,1225,308,307,250,1528,1784, 1785,236, 104 Center, Virginia Peninsula Regional 1787,237,224,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796,191,194,1124, 193, 1125, Jail 1126, 180,198,255,256,112,118 Surry Power Station 10-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

Table 10-3. School and Day care Evacuation Assembly Centers School Evacuation Assembly Center General Stanford Elementary School Sanford Elementary School Warwick River Christian School First Baptist Church Denbigh BC Charles Elementary School Gildersleeve Middle School Menchville High School Jenkins Elementary School Sanford School Age Program B.C. Charles School Age Program Jenkins School Age Program Denbigh Early Childhood Center Denbigh Head Start Center HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center Stoney Run Elementary School Denbigh High School New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy George J McIntosh Elementary Hines Middle School Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School Woodside High School Richneck Elementary School Epes School Age Program Mcintosh School Age Program Greenwood School Age Program Richneck School Age Program Walsingham Academy (Lower School)

Walsingham Academy (Upper School)

College of William and Mary Matthew Whaley Elementary School Berkeley Middle School James Blair Middle School New Kent High School Magruder Elementary School York County Head Start Waller Mill Elementary School Bruton High School Queens Lake Middle School Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School DJ Montague Elementary School Jamestown High School Warhill High School Providence Classical School Matoaka Elementary School Surry Power Station 10-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

School Evacuation Assembly Center 4-H Camp James River Elementary School Warhill High School Laurel Lane Elementary School Katherine Johnson Elementary School Knollwood Meadows Elementary School Ella Fitzgerald Middle School David A Dutrow Elementary School Warwick High School Mary Passage Middle School Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program Nelson School Age Program Mary Passage School Age Program Surry Power Station 10-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Key Map.

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the County of Surry

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the County of York

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

~ Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Key Map, '

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O

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Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the County of James City

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Figure 10-6. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for James City County Surry Power Station 10-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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238 Transit-Dependent Bus Routes ~ Key Map_

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Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Key Map_

(2 of 2) for the City of Newport News Bus Route F-9 Bus Route F-10

- Bus Route F-11 James River i;il SPS PAZ Shadow Region 0.5 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Figure 10-8. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (2 of 2)

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Deltilvi//e Chickahominy River

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~_::~~::~:~ Oomiinion Miles Figure 10-9. General Population Evacuation Assembly Centers Surry Power Station 10-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms

A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term Definition Analysis Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.

Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.

Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.

Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Prevailing Roadway and Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,

Traffic Conditions composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).

Service Rate Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vph.

Service Volume Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vph.

Signal Cycle Length The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.

The cycle length is expressed in seconds.

Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.

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Term Definition Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds.

Traffic (Trip) Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.

Traffic Density The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).

Traffic (Trip) Distribution A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.

Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness (MOE).

Traffic Volume The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vph. Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.

Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.

Trip Table or Origin- A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number Destination Matrix of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations. These values are expressed in vph or in vehicles.

Turning Capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

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APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This appendix describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic TRaffic 8_ssignment and Qistribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (O-D) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for selected origins. DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost."

B.1 Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these "best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.

For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways. The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip "cost", as discussed later.

The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.

The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.

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B.2 Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn]

movements. DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.

B.2.1 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the OTA module for the DYNEV II System.

When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations. The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given 0-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time dependencies, OTA procedures are required.

The DTRAD OTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions. The modeling principles of DTRAD include:

It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several "efficient" routes for each 0-D pair from which the drivers choose.

The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling". Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

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DTRAD executes the traffic assignment (TA) algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.

Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as where Ca is the generalized cost for link a and a, {3, and y are cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions. The DYNEV simulation model computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior. This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session). A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.

The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution). The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:

Sa= - p In (p), 0 Sp SI; p >O dn p=-

do dn = Distance of node, n, from the plant do= Distance from the plant where there is zero risk P = Scaling factor The value of do= 13 miles, the outer distance of the EPZ. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.

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B.2.2 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:

Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.

The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium". It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful] condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,

commuters). Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.

Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.

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0 Start of next DTRAD Session

~

I Set T0 = Clock time.

Archive System State at T0 I

Define latest Link Turn Percentages I

Execute Simulation Model from

~

B ~

time, T0 to T1 (burn time)

I Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T1 I

Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I

Retrieve System State at T0 ;

Apply new Link Turn Percents I

DTRAD iteration converges?

No Yes I Next iteration I Simulate from T0 to T2 (DTA session duration)

Set Clock to T2

~

r B

Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Surry Power Station B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model

C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL This appendix describes the DYNEV traffic simulation model. The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions. The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) such as those listed in Table C-1.

Model Features Include:

Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.

Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the Qynamic TRaffic

,8ssignment and Qistribution (DTRAD) model.

At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications: queued and moving vehicles. The number of vehicles in each classification is computed. Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified. The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation. There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.

Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented. This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.

The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement. If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.

A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.

A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

Provides MOE to animation software, Evacuation Animator (EVAN).

Calculates Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) statistics.

All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.

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To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections: rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways. The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).

Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation. The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships. Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf ~ k ~ kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity. In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k ~ ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion. The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and ki completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.

The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, Vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =

45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9; (5) Jam density, ki. Then, Ve = Q;cax , kf = kc -

(Vf-Vc) k~. Setting k = k - k then Q = RQ - RQmax k2 for 0 < k < k = 50. It can be Qmax c' max 8333 - - s shown that Q = (0.98 - 0.0056 k) RQmax for ks~ k ~ kj, where ks= 50 and J 1, calculate E = Li Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this Tl; Sis the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current Tl.

Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = k 0 , and E = E0 .

2. Calculate v (k) such that k ::; 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.
Calculate Cap = Q~~~~I) (G/c) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering Set R = 1.0 if G/ C < 1 or if k ::; kc ; Set R = 0. 9 only if G/ C = 1 and k > kc Lv Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb LN
3. Ca 1cu1ate t 1 = TI - v.
L If t 1 -< O, set t 1 = E1 = OE = O ; Else, E1 -- E Tt11 *
5. If Qb ~ Cap , then OQ = Cap , OM = OE = 0 If t 1 > 0 , then Q~ = Qb + Mb + E1 - Cap Else End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)
6. Else (Qb -< Cap)
OQ = Qb , RCap = Cap - OQ
7. If Mb ::; RCap, then 8.
Q~ = E1 - OE If Q~ > 0 , then Calculate Qe , Me with Algorithm A Surry Power Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Else Qe = 0' Me= E2 End if Else (t1 = O)
OM = (v(Tl)-Lb)
L-Lb Mb and OE = 0 Me = Mb - OM + E; Qe = 0 End if
9. Else (Mb > RCap)
OE= 0 If t 1 > 0, then OM = RCap, Q~ = Mb - OM + E1 Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A
10. Else (t1 = 0)
Md = [ e(~~;bLb) Mb ]
If Md > RCap, then OM= RCap Q~ =Md-OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM= Md Me = Mb - OM +E and Qe = 0 End if End if End if End if
11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = 2:.4 [kb + 2 km + ke] ,
where kb = density at the beginning of the Tl ke = density at the end of the Tl km = density at the mid-point of the Tl All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.
If lkn - kn-i I > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and e is a convergence criterion, then
12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn .
End if Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing spill back.
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The number of excess vehicles that cause spill back is: SB = Qe + Me - (L-W)
LN ,
Lv where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this Tl by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1- (E + S) ~ 0, where Mis the metering factor (over all movements).
This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.
Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a Tl during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Q'e shown, Qb ~ Cap, with t 1 > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Q~ , formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the Tl, but could V not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is, Qb + Mb + E1 > Cap. This queue length, Q~ =
Qb + Mb + E1 - Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current Tl, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the queue within the Tl. A portion of the entering
.I vehicles, E3 = E ~ , will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 , Qe and Me for the input values of L, Tl, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Q~ .
When t 1 > 0 and Qb ~ Cap:
L L Define: L'e = Q~ L~ . From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI - t 1 - t 3) = L - (Q~ + E3) L~ .
Substituting E3 = ~~ E yields: - vt 3 + ~~ E ~~ = L - v(TI - t 1) - L'e . Recognizing that the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain:
such that O ~ t 3 ~ TI - t 1 If the denominator, [v - :1 ~~] ~ 0, set t 3 = TI - t1 .
t3 ( t1 + t3)
Then, Qe = Q~ + E TI , Me = E 1 - TI The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.
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C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If, however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.
C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over Tl that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.
The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, Tl, until the simulation is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and Sare all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.
Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.
With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.
The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles: Qe and Me . The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping). After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E; metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.
The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.
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Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior Tl). At the completion of the final sweep for a Tl, the procedure computes and stores all MOEs for each link and turn movement for output purposes. It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next Tl as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior Tl. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run.
Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.
C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)
The DYNEV II system reflects Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.
Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions"; each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,
[T0 , T2 ] , specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.
As indicated in Figure B-1, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T1 ::5 T2 , which lies within the session duration, [T0 , T2 ] . This "burn time", T1 - T0 , is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) model, returns to the origin time, T0 , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T2
At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.
Additional details are presented in Appendix B.
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Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Measure Units Applies To Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Statistics Route Time (min)
Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Surry Power Station C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK
Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers
Link lengths
Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization
Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)
Destination (exit) nodes
Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link
Node Coordinates (X,Y)
Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)
GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES
On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS
Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific
Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated
Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)
Stop and Yield signs
Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)
Route diversion specifications
Turn restrictions
Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)
DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, discharge headway
Bus route designation.
DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)
Duration of DTA sessions
Duration of simulation "burn time"
Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS
Identify and Schedule of closed lanes
Identify and Schedule of closed links Surry Power Station C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.
The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the E
time interval. The portion, Er1, can reach the stop-bar within the Tl.
The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn G/C movement on a link.
h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.
k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.
The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a Tl, on a k
link.
L The length of the link in feet.
The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.
The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a LN particular movement on a link.
The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.
M Metering factor {Multiplier): 1.
The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval. These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.
The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a 0
link over a time interval.
The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval: vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the Tl; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the Tl; vehicles that Entered the link during the Tl.
The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.
The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the
[beginning, end] of the time interval.
The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Surry Power Station C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the Highway Capacity Manual {HCM) 2016.
R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.
RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.
Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).
t1 Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.
Tl The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.
v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.
vQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the Tl. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.
W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.
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Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx 8
Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Surry Power Station C-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Volume, vph
+ Capacity Drop Qmax -
RQmax-

r---..,,,,.--=-.....,.----;--------...,_----

Flow egimes Density, vpm Speed,mph ill! Free Forced, Vf - ; - - ~ ~ I R Ve - -----:----------.,- - -
, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I L--....;...'----..-'----!--------.;::::,,,;..-------+Density, vpm Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Distance l Qoown L
Up
- - - -... Time Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t1 >0 Surry Power Station C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Sequence Network Links Next Time-step, of duration, Tl Next sweep; Define E, M, S for all B
Links Next Link Next Turn Movement, x Get lanes, LNx Service Rate, Sx; (G/Cx)
Get inputs to Unit Problem:
Qb ,Mb IE Solve Unit Problem: Qe, Me, 0 No D Last Movement?
Yes No Last Link?
Yes No B Last Sweep?
Yes Cale., store all Link MOE Set up next Tl :
No Last Time - step ?
Yes DONE Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3)
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APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure
D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute ETE. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.
Step 1 The first activity was to obtain the EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary and PAZ boundaries.
Step 2 The 2020 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the permanent resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Dominion Energy, the state and cities/counties within the EPZ, supplemented with internet search where data was missing.
Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and city/county emergency management officials and Dominion Energy). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to the state and city/county emergency management officials. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.
Step 4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals (if any exist within the study area), and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity. Roadway characteristics were also verified using aerial imagery.
Step 5 A demographic survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population for this study. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
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Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the most recent UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey {Step 4) and information obtained from aerial imagery. Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. The 2020 permanent resident population estimates {Step 2) were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.
Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 30 PAZs. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of PAZs) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II system, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.
Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.
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Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software - See Section 1.3) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.
Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:
The results are satisfactory; or
The input stream must be modified accordingly.
This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.
Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or adding minor routes (which are paved and traversable) that were not previously modelled but may assist in the evacuation and increase the available roadway network capacity, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems.
Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.
Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.
Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses, school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-Surry Power Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.
Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.
Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly. Traffic management plans are analyzed, and traffic control points are prioritized, if applicable.
Additional analysis is conducted to identify the sensitivity of the ETE to change in some base evacuation conditions and model assumptions.
Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute ETE for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, medical facilities, and other special facilities.
Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated, and graphed. The results are then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) is completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.
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Step 10 Examine Prototype Evacuation Case using EVAN Step 1 and Create GIS Base Map DYNEV II Output Step2 Results Satisfactory Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Step 11 Study Area.
Modify Evacuation Destinations and/or Develop Step3 Traffic Control Treatments Conduct Kickoff Meeting with Stakeholders Step 12 Modify Database to Reflect Changes to Prototype Evacuation case Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area Steps Conduct and Analyze Demographic Survey and Step 13 Develop Trip Generation Characteristics Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Step6 Routes and Update DYNEV-11 Database Update and calibrate Link-Node Analysis Step 14 Ne ork Step7 Generate DYNEV-11 Input Streams for All Evacuation cases Develop Evacuation Regions and Scenarios Step 15 Steps Use DYNEV-11 to Simulate All Evacuation Cases and Compute ETE Create and Debug DYNEV-11 Input Stream Step 16 Use DYNEV-11 Results to Estimate Transit and Step9 Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation case Step 17 Documentation Step 18 Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Surry Power Station D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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APPENDIX E Special Facility Data
E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of July 2022, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the SPS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, (evacuating) day care centers, day camps, medical facilities, military installations, and correctional facilities. Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas (campgrounds, golf courses, historical sites, marinas, parks, other recreational facilities) and lodging facilities. Employment data is included in the table for major employers (including military installations) . Each table is grouped by city/county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, day care center, day camp, major employer, recreational area (campground, golf course, historical site, marina, park, other recreational facility), lodging facility, military installation, and correctional facility are also provided.
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Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ Distance Dire- Enroll-PAZ (miles) ction School Name Street Address City/County ment 14 7.0 E General Stanford Elementary School 929 Madison Ave Newport News 482 15 9.3 ESE Sanford Elementary School 480 Colony Rd Newport News 509 15 9.4 ESE Warwick River Christian School 252 Lucas Creek Rd Newport News 152 15 10.2 ESE First Baptist Church Denbigh 3628 Campbell Rd Newport News 48 15 10.3 ESE BC Charles Elementary School 701 Menchville Rd Newport News 379 15 10.4 ESE Menchville High School 275 Menchville Rd Newport News 1,699 15 10.5 ESE Jenkins Elementary School 80 Menchville Rd Newport News 478 16 7.2 ENE Katherine Johnson Elementary School 17346 Warwick Blvd Newport News 518 16 7.9 ESE Knollwood Meadows Elementary School 826 Moyer Rd Newport News 445 16 8.0 E Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 432 Industrial Park Dr Newport News 1,096 16 8.1 E David A Dutrow Elementary School 60 Curtis Tignor Rd Newport News 454 16 8.4 E Mary Passage Middle School 400 Atkinson Way Newport News 990 16 8.5 ESE Stoney Run Elementary School 855 Lucas Creek Rd Newport News 482 16 8.7 ESE Denbigh High School 259 Denbigh Blvd Newport News 1,159 16 9.4 E New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy 13400 Woodside Ln Newport News 29 16 9.4 E George J McIntosh Elementary 185 Richneck Rd Newport News 442 16 9.4 E Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School 13460 Woodside Ln Newport News 570 16 9.6 E Woodside High School 13450 Woodside Ln Newport News 1,684 16 9.6 E Richneck Elementary School 205 Tyner Dr Newport News 597 18D 5.3 NE James River Elementary School 8901 Pocahontas Tri James City 393 19A 7.1 N Magruder Elementary School 700 Penniman Rd York 598 20A 8.7 N Waller Mill Elementary School 314 Waller Mill Rd York 344 20A 10.0 N Bruton High School 185 E Rochambeau Dr York 603 20B 8.2 N Queens Lake Middle School 124 W Queens Dr York 527 21 6.5 NNW Walsingham Academy (Lower School) 1100 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 318 21 6.5 NNW Walsingham Academy (Upper School) 1100 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 243 21 7.2 N College of William and Mary 116 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 8,200 21 7.5 N Matthew Whaley Elementary School 301 Scotland St Williamsburg 471 21 7.7 NNW Berkeley Middle School 1118 lronbound Rd Williamsburg 829 21 8.8 NNW James Blair Middle School 101 Longhill Rd Williamsburg 550 22B 6.0 NNW Laurel Lane Elementary School 112 Laurel Ln James City 391 23 6.8 NW Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School 3131 lronbound Rd James City 419 Surry Power Station E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Distance Dire- Enroll-PAZ (miles) ction School Name Street Address City/County ment 23 11.2 NNW DJ Montague Elementary School 5380 Centerville Rd James City 441 24 7.8 NW Jamestown High School 3751 John Tyler Hwy James City 1,202 24 7.8 NW Providence Classical School 6000 Easter Cir James City 195 24 10.0 NW Matoaka Elementary School 4001 Brick Bat Rd James City 627 EPZTOTAL: 28,564 Surry Power Station E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table E-2. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ Distance Dire- Enroll-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County ment 15 9.1 ESE The Garden of Children Ltd 4 Hoopes Rd Newport News 175 15 9.1 ESE Light Of Hope Community Church 403 Oriana Rd Newport News 210 15 9.3 ESE Sanford School Age Program 480 Colony Rd Newport News 70 15 9.3 ESE Denbigh Early Childhood Center 14302 Old Courthouse Way Newport News 70 15 9.3 ESE Denbigh Head Start Center 14302 Old Courthouse Way Newport News 18 15 9.4 ESE HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center 14357 Deloice Cres Newport News 72 15 9.4 ESE Warwick River Mennonite Church 250-A Lucas Creek Rd Newport News 255 15 9.5 ESE New Beech Grove Baptist Church 326 Tabbs Ln Newport News 52 15 9.5 ESE Christ Community Outreach Center 13809 Warwick Blvd Newport News 99 15 9.8 ESE Colonial Baptist Church 13771 Warwick Blvd, #25 Newport News 40 15 9.9 E Village Restoration 550 Denbigh Blvd Newport News 18 15 10.0 E God's Way Christian Academy 12759 Jefferson Ave Newport News so 15 10.2 ESE First Baptist Church Denbigh Child Development Center 3628 Campbell Rd Newport News 260 15 10.3 ESE B.C. Charles School Age Program 101 Youngs Rd Newport News 90 15 10.4 ESE Beginnings Academy of Learning, LLC 400 Sharon Drive Newport News 99 15 10.4 ESE Peninsula Pentecostals 404 Sharon Drive Newport News 80 15 10.4 ESE Second Presbyterian Church 201 Menchville Rd Newport News 60 15 10.5 ESE Jenkins School Age Program 80 Menchville Rd Newport News 70 15 10.8 ESE Reformation Lutheran Church 13100 Warwick Blvd Newport News 80 16 7.8 E Living Waters Christian Fellowship Church 15557 Warwick Blvd Newport News 44 16 7.8 E Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program 15638 Warwick Blvd Newport News 90 16 7.9 ESE Nelson School Age Program 826 Moyer Rd Newport News 70 16 7.9 E A Heavenly Haven Child Development Center 15435 Warwick Blvd Newport News 99 16 8.2 E Kiddy City Daycare 15322 Warwick Blvd Newport News 82 16 8.2 E Girls Inc. @ Cypress Terrace 25 Teardrop Lane Newport News 31 16 8.4 ESE Toddler Station# Iv, Inc. 902 Lucas Creek Rd Newport News 100 16 8.4 E Mary Passage School Age Program 400 Atkinson Way Newport News 70 16 8.5 ESE Epes School Age Program 855 Lucas Creek Rd Newport News 90 16 8.7 ESE Holy Tabernacle Christian Ch ild Development Center 14749 Warwick Blvd Newport News 94 16 8.7 ESE Holy Tabernacle Church Of Deliverance 14749 Warwick Blvd Newport News 23 16 8.8 ESE Denbigh Presbyterian Church 302 Denbigh Blvd Newport News 80 16 9.2 E Stepping Stones Child Development Center 12946 Jefferson Ave Newport News 70 Surry Power Station E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Distance Dire- Enroll-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County ment 16 9.4 E Mcintosh School Age Program 185 Richneck Rd Newport News 70 16 9.4 E Greenwood School Age Program 13460 Woodside Lane Newport News 90 16 9.6 E Richneck School Age Program 205 Tyner Rd Newport News 70 16 9.9 E Kids Are People Too Childcare Center 557-B Denbigh Blvd Newport News 77 16 10.5 E Denbigh Christian Academy 1233 Shields Rd Newport News 370 18C 5.6 NE Gilead Christian Academy 8660 Pocahontas Tri James City 15 18C 5.8 NE Grove ABC Day Care 8582 Pocahontas Tri James City 26 19A 6.6 NNE York County Head Start 1490 Government Rd York 117 20A 8.3 N Lea RN Lily Child Development Center 104 Bypass Rd York 60 21 7.1 N Williamsburg Campus Child Care 114 Grigsby Dr Williamsburg 77 22B 6.1 NNW La Petite Academy #898 3190 Lake Powell Rd James City 73 23 6.9 NNW King's Way Church/Greenwood Christian 5251-37 John Tyler Hwy James City 162 23 7.1 NW Childcare Network 4300 John Tyler Memorial Hwy James City 172 23 8.0 NNW New Town United Methodist Church 5209 Monticello Ave James City 80 23 8.4 NNW The Goddard School 4280 Casey Blvd James City 135 23 9.9 NNW King of Glory Lutheran Church 4897 Longhill Rd James City 120 23 10.2 NNW La Petite Academy #965 5260 Olde Towne Rd James City 35 24 6.7 NW 4-H Camp 37514-H Club Rd James City 350 24 8.2 NW The Kensington School 3435 John Tyler Hwy James City 200 EPZTOTAL: 5,110 Surry Power Station E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Ambul- Wheel- Bed-Distance Dire- Cap- Current atory chair ridden PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County acity Census Patients Patients Patients y p 15 9.0 ESE Community Alternative 415 St Tropez Dr Newport News N/A1 15 10.0 ESE Campbell House 4002 Campbell Rd Newport News N/A 15 10.9 ESE Mennowood Retirement Community 13030 Warwick Blvd Newport News 90 83 45 29 9 16 7.7 E Sacred hearts Ministry 15617 Warwick Blvd Newport News N/A1 16 8.0 E Disabled Veterans Meeting Hall 15460 Warwick Blvd Newport News N/A1 16 8.0 E Serenity House, Trust House 223 Stony Ridge Ct Newport News N/A1 16 8.1 ESE ARC Peninsula Saddler Home Inc 208 Saddler Dr Newport News N/A1 16 8.4 E Serenity House 509 Ashton Green Blvd Newport News N/A1 16 9.8 E Mile-A-Way Adult Home 494 Richneck Rd Newport News N/A1 16 10.1 E Charter Senior Living of Newport News 655 Denbigh Blvd Newport News 110 101 55 35 11 18B 6.0 NNE Morningside of Williamsburg 440 Mclaws Cir James City 86 62 2 30 30 18C 5.4 NE Colonial Manor Senior Community 8679 Pocahontas Tri James City 85 64 30 30 4 20A 8.2 N Commonwealth Senior Living 236 Commons Way York 195 102 75 25 2 20A 8.9 N Verena At The Reserve 121 Reserve Way York 210 152 146 6 0 21 6.1 NNE Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg 1500 Commonwealth Ave Williamsburg 40 37 20 13 4 21 8.0 N Envoy of Williamsburg 1235 S Mount Vernon Ave Williamsburg 150 150 0 130 20 21 8.4 N Spring Arbor of Williamsburg 935 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg so so 46 4 0 21 9.9 NNW Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg 251 Patriot Ln Williamsburg 90 75 65 10 0 22B 5.8 NNW Williamsburg Landing 5500 Williamsburg Landing Dr James City 193 128 90 33 5 23 8.2 NNW Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg 3800 Treyburn Dr James City 338 284 241 34 9 23 8.5 NNW WindsorMeade Williamsburg 3900 Windsor Hall Dr James City 54 33 11 22 0 23 8.6 NNW Edgeworth Park at New Town 5501 Discovery Park Blvd James City 83 78 58 20 0 23 9.0 NNW Eastern State Hospital 4601 lronbound Rd James City 300 265 215 20 30 23 10.4 NNW Pavilion At Williamsburg Place 5483 Mooretown Rd James City 57 52 28 18 6 24 6.3 NW English Meadows Williamsburg Campus 1807 Jamestown Rd James City 48 11 5 6 0 24 6.4 NW Consulate Health Care 1811 Jamestown Rd James City 90 87 0 43 44 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-24 8.7 NW Williamsburg 6200 Patriots Colony Dr James City 490 440 374 so 16 EPZTOTAL: 2,789 2,282 1,521 568 193 1 These facilities are small adult care homes/group homes identified by Newport News City officials. Data for these facilities are unavailable. It is assumed that residents will evacuate in personal veh icles.
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Table E-4. Major Employers 2 within the EPZ
% Employee Employees Employees Vehicles Distance Dire- Employees Commuting Commuting Commuting PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name City/County (Max Shift} into the EPZ into the EPZ into the EPZ Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the PAZ James City 7,158 64.6% 4,622 4,402 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the PAZ 2,326 64.6% 1,503 1,432 Newport News 14 6.4 w Fort Eustis 8,000 70.0% 5,600 5,600 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the PAZ 419 64.7% 271 258 Surry 8 - - Surry Power Station 812 79.9% 649 618 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the PAZ Williamsburg 4,235 64.6% 2,736 2,607 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the PAZ 501 64.7% 324 308 16 7.0 ENE Yorktown Naval Weapons Station 2,000 70.0% 1,400 1,333 York 208 9.8 N Camp Peary 300 70.0% 210 200 208 9.9 NNE Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center 1,000 70.0% 700 667 EPZTOTAL: 26,751 - 18,015 17,425
'The major employer locations are shown in Figure E-8. The locations are represented by circles wh ich increase in size proportional to the number of employees commuting into the EPZ in each census block. Note, the employment data for SPS and for military installations were provided by Dominion and by local agencies. Refer to Section 3.4 for details.
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Table E-5. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ 14 5.6 E Fort Eustis Newport News Campground 53 19 15 9.9 ESE Nicewood Park 3 Nicewood Dr Newport News Park Local residents only 16 7.3 E Lee's Mill Historic Park 280-310 Rivers Ridge Cir Newport News Park 10 4 16 7.9 E Americana Park East 4 406 Merry Oaks Dr Newport News Campground Local residents only 16 8.1 E Newport News Park Campground 13564 Jefferson Ave Newport News Campground 464 188 16 8.1 E Shady Oaks Mobile Homes4 429 S Trellis Ct Newport News Campground Local residents only 16 8.3 E Shodon Management Co 4 429 S Trellis Ct Newport News Campground Local residents only 16 8.4 E Newport News Park 13564 Jefferson Ave Newport News Park 700 280 16 8.6 E Paul's Mobile Home Park 4 15088 Warwick Blvd Newport News Campground Local residents only 18A 6.6 NNE Gibson Mobile Home Estates4 125 Burgess St James City Campground Local residents only 18C 5.5 ENE Windy Hills Mobile Home Park4 8920 Pocahontas Tri James City Campground Local residents only 18C 5.6 NE Carter's Cove Campground 8758 Pocahontas Tri James City Campground 45 25 18C 5.7 NE Country Village Mobile Home Park4 10 Gray Gables Dr James City Campground Local residents only 20A 10.2 N Waller Mill Park 901 Airport Rd York Park 300 150 20B 9.8 NNE Kings Creek RV Campground York Campground 518 247 22A 5.4 NW Jamestown National Park 1367 Colonial Pkwy James City Park 1,056 190 23 9.9 N Anvil Campground 5243 Mooretown Rd James City Campground 160 60 24 9.8 NW Greensprings Mobile Home Park4 1 Red Oak Dr James City Campground Local residents only 24 11.8 NW Chickahominy Riverfront Park 1350 John Tyler Hwy James City Campground 450 150 EPZTOTAL: 4,726 1,639 3 Nicewood Park in Table E-5, and Queen's Hithe and Potter's Field Historical Park in Table E-7 are small transient attractions included in Newport News Radiological Emergency Response Plan. Visitors are assumed to be local residents who have been counted as permanent residents; therefore, no transients or transient vehicles were assigned to these facilities. Refer to Section 3.3 for additional details.
4 These facilities are mobile home parks wherein the residents are included in the 2020 Census. These people have been included as permanent residents in Section 3.1. As such, no transients or transient vehicles were assigned to these mobile home parks.
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Table E-6. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ Distance Dire-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County Facility Type Transients Vehicles 2 6.0 w Surry Seafood Marina 633 Marina Dr Surry Marina 111 47 14 5.6 ESE The Pines Golf Course at Fort Eustis 3501 Mulberry Island Dr Newport News Golf Course 175 112 15 11.1 ESE Deep Creek Landing Marina 200 Old Marina Ln Newport News Marina 14 14 15 11.1 ESE Menchville Marina 494 Menchville Rd S Newport News Marina 279 108 16 7.7 ESE Denbigh Boat Ramp Denbigh Blvd Newport News Marina 129 90 16 9.2 E Newport News Golf Club at Deer Run 901 Clubhouse Way Newport News Golf Course 280 70 18B 4.6 NNE Kingsmill Golf Club 1010 Kingsmill Rd James City Golf Course 664 280 19A 6.1 NNE Williamsburg Country Club 1801 Merrimac Tri York Golf Course 275 106 20B 9.9 NNE Deer Cove Golf Course 108 Sanda Ave York Golf Course 90 32 21 6.2 N The Green Course at Golden Horseshoe Golf Club 651 S England St Williamsburg Golf Course 222 86 21 6.7 N Golden Horseshoe Golf Course 401 South England St Williamsburg Golf Course 350 158 23 10.7 NNW Ford's Colony Country Club 240 Fords Colony Dr James City Golf Course 581 245 24 6.1 NW James City County Marina 2054 Jamestown Rd James City Marina 90 35 24 8.0 NW First Colony Beach and Marina 94 Shellbank Dr James City Marina so 38 24 9.0 NW Williamsburg National Golf Club 3700 Centerville Rd James City Golf Course 349 147 24 10.6 WNW Marina -Two Rivers Country Club 1636 Harbor Rd James City Marina 183 71 24 11.0 WNW Two Rivers Country Club 1400 Two Rivers Rd James City Golf Course 291 123 EPZTOTAL: 4,133 1,762 Surry Power Station E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table E-7. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ Distance Dire-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County Facility Type Transients Vehicles 2 6.8 w Smith's Fort Plantation 217 Smith Fort Ln Surry Historical Site 26 10 6 4.2 SSW Bacon's Castle 465 Bacons Castle Tri Surry Historical Site 34 13 15 8.9 ESE Warwick Court House 379 Deshazer Dr Newport News Historical Site 62 24 16 6.5 E Queen's Hithe 3 Enterprise Dr Newport News Historical Site Local residents only 16 6.8 E Skiffe's Creek Redoubt 22 Enterprise Dr Newport News Historical Site 15 6 16 7.1 ENE Lee Hall Mansion 163 Yorktown Rd Newport News Historical Site 103 40 362 Yorktown Rd Suite 16 7.8 ENE Endview Plantation 1017 Newport News Historical Site 26 10 16 8.6 ESE Potter's Field Historical Park 3 14747 Warwick Blvd Newport News Historical Site Local residents only 16 8.8 E Stoney Run Athletic Complex 15194 Warwick Blvd Newport News Other, Not Listed 464 180 18B 5.4 NNE Busch Gardens 1 Busch Garden Blvd James City Other, Not Listed 9,030 3,500 19A 7.4 NNE Water Country USA 176 Water Country Pkwy York Other, Not Listed 3,225 1,250 21 7.2 N Colonial Williamsburg5 Duke of Gloucester St Williamsburg Historical Site Included below 21 7.8 N Colonial Williamsburg Visitors Center 101 Visitor Center Dr Williamsburg Historical Site 2,200 825 24 6.3 NW Jamestown Settlement 2110 Jamestown Rd James City Historical Site 4,344 835 EPZTOTAL: 19,529 6,693 5 Transients and vehicles visiting Colonial Williamsburg were assigned to the Colonial Williamsburg Visitors Center. Refer to Section 3.3 for additional details.
Surry Power Station E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table E-8. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Distance Dire-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County Transients Vehicles 14 6.9 E General Smalls Inn 1700 Madison Ave Newport News 944 366 16 7.1 E Fort Eustis Inn 16924 Warwick Blvd Newport News 52 20 16 7.2 E Comfort Inn Newport News/Williamsburg East 16890 Warwick Blvd Newport News 228 85 16 7.2 E Mulberry Inn 16890 Warwick Blvd Newport News 261 101 16 7.8 E Motel 6 Newport News 15540 Warwick Blvd Newport News 116 45 16 8.3 E Economy Inn & Suites 15237 Warwick Blvd Newport News 98 73 16 8.8 ESE Days Inn Newport News 14747 Warwick Blvd Newport News 232 138 18A 6.6 N Country Inn & Suites Williamsburg East 7135 Pocahontas Tri James City 268 123 18A 6.6 NNE Rodeway Inn & Suites 7224 Merrimac Tri James City 200 60 18A 6.8 N Fort Magruder INN 6945 Pocahontas Tri James City 924 422 18B 4.4 NNE Kingsmill Resort and Spa 1010 Kingsmill Rd James City 1,289 395 18B 5.7 NNE DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel 50 Kingsmill Rd James City 300 150 18B 6.0 NNE Holiday Inn Express Williamsburg Busch Gardens Area 480 Mclaws Cir James City 258 100 18B 6.0 NNE Courtyard by Marriott 470 Mclaws Cir James City 452 175 19A 5.9 NNE Parkside Resort Williamsburg 1821 Merrimac Tri York 370 156 19A 7.2 NNE Wyndham Garden Williamsburg Busch Gardens Area 201 Water Country Pkwy York 503 195 19A 7.7 NNE Kings Creek Plantation 191 Cottage Cove Ln York 2,140 856 20A 8.1 N Comfort Suites 237 Commons Way York 272 86 20A 8.1 N Hampton Inn & Suites 718 Bypass Rd York 435 105 20A 8.1 N Sleep Inn Historic 220 Bypass Rd York 276 98 20A 8.1 N La Quinta Inn & Suites 600 Bypass Rd York 349 134 20A 8.1 N Days Inn Historic 706 Bypass Rd York 320 156 20A 8.2 N Country Inn & Suites 400 Bypass Rd York 204 102 20A 8.2 N Homewood Suites 601 Bypass Rd York 244 92 20A 8.2 N Holiday Inn Hotel & Su ites 515 Bypass Rd York 312 120 20A 8.3 N Travelodge Inn & Suites 120 Bypass Rd York 360 170 20A 8.3 N Comfort Inn 331 Bypass Rd York 348 126 20A 8.3 N Club Wyndham Patriots' Place 725 Bypass Rd York 1,568 392 20A 8.3 N Williamsburg Plantation Reception Center 100 Waller Mill Rd York 139 54 20A 8.4 N Days Inn 119 Bypass Rd York 210 140 20A 8.4 N Best Western Inn 201 Bypass Rd York 288 140 20A 8.6 N Embassy Suites Williamsburg 3006 Mooretown Rd York 507 250 Surry Power Station E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Distance Dire-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County Transients Vehicles 20A 8.6 N Wyndham Kingsgate 619 Georgetown Cres York 3,000 1,680 20A 9.1 N Wyndham Governors Green 4600 Mooretown Rd York 998 550 21 6.5 NNW Colonial Gardens Bed and Breakfast 1109 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 9 9 21 6.7 N Newport House Bed & Breakfast 710 South Henry St Williamsburg 4 4 21 6.8 N Maceo Consolidated Lodge 630 S Henry St Williamsburg 15 6 21 6.9 NNW Williamsburg Sampler Bed & Breakfast 922 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 12 4 21 6.9 N Bassett Motel 800 York St Williamsburg 36 18 21 6.9 N A Williamsburg White House 718 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 12 6 21 7.0 N Williamsburg Lodge 310 S England St Williamsburg 833 323 21 7.0 N Cedars of Williamsburg Bed & Breakfast 616 Jamestown Rd Williamsburg 18 6 21 7.0 N OYO Hotel Williamsburg Busch Gardens 505 York St Williamsburg 243 113 21 7.1 N Williamsburg Inn 136 E Francis St Williamsburg 192 118 21 7.1 N Williamsburg Lodge 310 South England St Williamsburg 908 452 21 7.1 N Best Western Williamsburg Historic District 351 York St Williamsburg 300 263 21 7.2 N Orrell Kitchen - Colonial House and Griffin Hotel 302 Francis St E Williamsburg 173 67 21 7.2 N Bluegreen Vacations Patrick Henry Sqr, Ascend Resort Collection 249 York St Williamsburg 165 64 21 7.2 N Chiswell Bucktrout House 416 Francis St E Williamsburg 23 9 21 7.2 N Ewing Storehouse 338 Francis St E Williamsburg 3 1 21 7.2 N BG Williamsburg 315 York St Williamsburg 351 136 21 7.3 N The Fife and Drum Inn 441 Prince George St Williamsburg 27 13 21 7.4 N Aldrich House Bed & Breakfast 505 Capitol Court Williamsburg 12 8 21 7.4 N Governor's Trace Bed & Breakfast 303 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg 8 7 21 7.5 N Rodeway Inn Historic 309 Page St Williamsburg 334 155 21 7.5 N Super 8 Williamsburg Historic Area 304 2nd St Williamsburg 225 112 21 7.5 N Colonial Capital Bed & Breakfast 501 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 8 4 21 7.6 N The Williamsburg Manor Bed & Breakfast 600 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 12 9 21 7.6 N Harp & Thistle Inn 601 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 15 6 21 7.6 N Applewood Colonial B & B Inc 605 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 300 71 21 7.7 N Alice Person House 616 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 4 4 21 7.7 N Magnolia Manor 700 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 7 7 21 7.8 N Budget Inn Williamsburg 800 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg 78 38 21 7.9 N Mainstay Suites Williamsburg 1-64 814 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg 200 121 21 7.9 N Williamsburg Woodlands Hotel & Suites 105 Visitor Center Dr Williamsburg 1,200 300 Surry Power Station E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Distance Dire-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County Transients Vehicles 21 7.9 N Red Roof Inn Williamsburg 824 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg 80 80 21 7.9 N Travelodge-King William Inn 834 Capital Landing Rd Williamsburg 205 153 21 7.9 N Econo Lodge Colonial 442 Parkway Dr Williamsburg 189 58 21 8.1 N Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg 911 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg 328 152 21 8.2 N Westgate Historic Williamsburg Resort 1324 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 230 89 21 8.3 N Rochambeau Motel 929 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg 21 21 21 8.4 N Fairfield Inn & Suites Williamsburg 1402 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 483 148 21 8.5 N Patriots Inn 1420 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 168 65 21 8.7 N Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Williamsburg 1452 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 284 174 21 8.9 N America's Inn 1610 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 116 45 21 8.9 N Hilton Garden Inn Williamsburg 1624 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 330 202 21 8.9 NNW SpringHill Suites 1644 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 350 179 21 9.0 NNW Residence Inn Williamsburg 1648 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 400 108 21 9.0 NNW Johnson's Guest House 101 Thomas Nelson Ln Williamsburg 9 3 21 9.3 NNW Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg 1900 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 180 55 21 9.8 NNW Clarion Hotel Williamsburg 1-64 3032 Richmond Rd Williamsburg 481 223 228 4.5 NNW Wedmore Place 5810 Wessex Hundred James City 84 39 23 7.8 NNW The Historic Powhatan Resort 3601 lronbound Rd James City 1,335 620 23 10.0 NNW Williamsburg Plantation 4870 Longhill Rd James City 1,563 606 23 10.1 NNW Quality Inn & Suites 5351 Richmond Rd James City 200 60 23 10.2 NNW Pineapple Inn and Housing Center 5437 Richmond Rd James City 150 40 23 10.5 NNW The Colonies of Williamsburg 5380 Olde Towne Rd James City 457 212 23 10.5 NNW Marriott's Manor Club at Ford's Colony 101 St Andrews Dr James City 601 276 24 8.8 NW Greensprings Plantation Resort 3500 Ludwell Pkwy James City 966 592 EPZTOTAL: 33,402 14,509 Table E-9. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Distance Dire- Cap-PAZ (miles) ction Facility Name Street Address City/County acity Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center 9300 Merrimac Tri ':
18C IVirginia Peninsula Regional Jail 9320 Merrimac Tri James City EPZTOTAL: 643 Surry Power Station E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
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Oate:6/26/2022 Copyright:ESRI 0ataandMaps 2020 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings KLD Engineering, Domiinion /
2.5 www.census.gov Figure E-1. Overview of Schools within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Facility Nam e 1 Berkeley Middle Schoo l 2 Bruton High School 3 Clara Byrd Baker Ele men tary School College of William and Mary DJ Mont ague Elementary School 6 James Bla i r Middle School 7 Jamestown High Schoo l 8 l aurel lane Ele mentary School 9 Magru de r Elementary School 10 Ma t oaka El ementa ry School 11 Matthew Whaley Elementa ry Sc hool 12 Provide nce Class i cal Schoo l 13 Queens Lake Middle Sc hool Legend PAZ:21
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. ESRI Oataand Figure E-2. Schools within the EPZ - North Surry Power Station E-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Facility Name 1 BC Charles Elementary School David A Dutrow Elementary School Denbigh High Schoo l Jllmes 4 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School City 5 First Bapti st Ch u rch Denbigh ~ Couhty 6 Gene ra I Stanford Elementary School 7 Geo rgeJ McIntosh El ementary 8 James River Elementary School
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10 Katherine Johnson El ementary School 11 Kno llwood Meadows Elementary School \
12 Mary Passage Middle School 13 Menchville High School 14 New Horizon s Regiona l Educat i on Center: Newport Academy 15 Ol ive r C Greenwood Elementary School 16 Rich neck Elementary School 17 Sanfo rd Elementary Schoo l 18 Stoney Run Elementary School 19 Warwick River Christ ian School I
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(;l PAZ Shadow Region Date:6/26/2022 Copyright: ESRI OataandMaps ZOZO
'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings KlD Engineering,Domiinion www.censlls.gov Figure E-3. Schools within the EPZ - East Surry Power Station E-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
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Oate:6/26/2022
'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Copyright:ESRI 0ataandMaps 2020 KLD Engineering, Domiinion /
sle of 2.5 www.census.gov ight Coun Figure E-4. Overview of Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Fac ility Name 1 4-H Camp 2 Childcare Network 3 Gilead Ch ristia n Academy York River, 4 Grove ABC Day Care 5 King's Way Church/Greenwood Chri stian 6 King of Glory Lutheran Church 7 La Petite Academy#965 8 la Petite Academy #898 9 Lea RN Lily Chi l d Development Center 10 New Town United Methodist Church 11 Th e Godda r d School 12 The Kensington Schoo l Legend
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'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Figure E-5. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ - North Surry Power Station E-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Fac ility Name 1 A Heavenly Haven Child Development Center 2 B.C. Charles School Age Program 3 Begin n ings Academy of learning, LLC 4 Christ Commun i ty Outreach Center Colon ial Bapt ist Chu r ch Denbigh Christian Academy Denbigh Early Childhood Center Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program I
Denbigh Head Start Center 10 Denbigh Presbyterian Church io_;_~C\( I
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12 First Baptist Church Denbigh Child Development Center 13 Gi rls In c. @Cypress Terrace I 14 God's Way Christian Academy 1
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17 HolyTabernacle Church Of De liverance 18 HRCAPAyers Head Start Center ~~
19 Jenkins School Age Program ~
20 Kiddy City Daycare 21 Kids Are People Too Childcare Cen t er 22 Light Of Hope Community Church 23 Living Waters Christian Fellows hip Church 24 Ma ry Passage Schoo l Age Program 25 Mcintosh Schoo l Age Program 26 Nelson School Age Program 27 New Beech Grove Baptist Church 28 Peninsula Pentecostals 29 Refo rm ation Lutheran Church 30 RichneckSchool Age Program 31 Sanford School Age Program 32 Second Presbyterian Church 33 Stepp i ng Stones Child Development Center 34 The Garden of Children Ltd 3S Toddler Station #Iv, Inc .
37
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'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Figure E-6. Day Care Centers within the EPZ - East Surry Power Station E-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Facility Name ARC Peninsula Saddler Home Inc Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg Campbel l House Charter Senior living of Newport News Colonial ManorSeniorCommunity 6 Commonwealth Senior Livi ng Community Alternative Consulate Health Care Disabled Veterans Meeting Hall 10 Eastern State Hospital 11 Edgeworth Park at New Tow n 12 English Meadows Wi l liamsburg Campus 13 EnvoyofWil liamsburg 14 Greenfield Sen ior living of Willia ms burg 15 McDonald Army Health Ce nter 16 Mennowood Retirement Community 17 Mile-A-Way Adult Home 18 Morningside of Williamsburg Legend 19 Pavili on At Williamsburg Place
e SPS Medical Facility 20 Rive rside Doctors' Hospita l Williamsburg 21 Sacred hearts Ministry 22 Serenity House 23 Serenity House, Trust House
(;l PAZ 24 SpringArborofWi lliamsburg Shadow Region 25 The Conva lescent at Patriots Co l ony-Wil li amsburg 26 Verena At The Reserve
'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings 27 Williamsburglanding 28 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Figure E-7. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Charles /
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Shadow Region Date:7/28/2022 r ~ 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Copyright: ESRI Data and Maps 2020 KLD Engineering, Domiinion/
2.5 w~ w.census.gov Smithfield Figure E-8. Major Employers within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
M ap No. Fac ility Name 1 Americana Park East
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~ pg 3 Carter's Cove Campgroun d 4 ChickahominyRiverfron t Park 5 Chippokes Plan tat io n State Park 6 Cou ntry Vil lage Mobile Home Park 7 Fort Eus t is 8 Gi bson Mobile Home Estates 9 Gree nspri ngs Mobile Home Park 10 Jamestown National Park 11 Kings Creek RV Campground 12 Lee's Mill Histo ric Park 13 Newpo rt News Park 14 Newport News Park Campgroun d 15 Nicewood Pa rk 18 Shodon Manageme nt Co 19 Wa ll er Mi l l Par k 20 Windy Hi ll s Mobile Home Park I
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Oate:9/S/2O22 Copyright:ESRI O~taandMaps2020 KLO Engineering, Oomi inion 2.5 Miles W'Nw.census.gov "-
Figure E-9. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Facility Name 1 Dee p Creek Lan ding Marina Deer Cove Golf Course Den bi gh Boat Ramp 4 First Colony Beach And Marina 9 Marina -TwoRi vers CountryClub /
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10 Menchville Marina 1--- -ll-+-N_e_w-po- ,-, _Ne_w_s_G_o-lf-Cl_u_b-at_D _e_e_rR _u_n_ _ ___,- I
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Figure E-10. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Facility Name 1 Baco n's Cas t le 2 Busch Ga rd ens 3 Colonial Willia m sburg 4 Colonial Williamsburg Vis itors Center 5 Endview Plan t at ion 6 Jamestow n Settlemen t 7 Lee Hall Mansion 8 Pot ter's Fi eld Hi stori ca l Park 9 Queen's Hit he 10 Skiffe 's Creek Redou bt 11 Sm ith's Fo rt Plantati on 12 St oney Run Ath let ic Comp lex 13 Warwick Court House 14 Water Cou ntry USA
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Oate: 9/S/2022 Copyright:ESRI O~ta andMa ps2020 KLD Engi neering, Oomi inion 2.5 Miles W'Nw.ce nsus.gov "-
Figure E-11. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Facility Name 1 Comfort Inn Newport News/Williamsburg East Days Inn Newport News Double Tree by Hilton Hotel 4 Economy Inn & Su ites S Fort Eustis Inn 6 Genera l Smalls Inn Greensprings Plantat ion Resort Kings Creek Plantation Kingsmill Resort and Spa 10 Marriott's Manor Club at Ford's Colony 11 Motel 6 Newport News 12 Mu l be rry Inn 13 Parkside Resort Williamsburg 14 The Col onies ofWilliamsbu rg 1S The Historic Powhatan Resort 16 Wed more Pl ace 17 WilliamsburgPlantation 18 Wyndham Garden Wi lli amsburg Busch Gardens Area Newport News PAZ: 16 Surry County
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Surry Power Station E-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No. Faci lity Name 1 A W il lia m sburg W h ite House __ ,o*Mlles -
2 Bassett Motel 3 Cedars of W illi amsbu rgBed & Br eakfast 4 Cla r ion Hotel Wil li amsburg 1-64 5 Colonia l Gardens Bed and Breakfast 6 Country Inn & Suites W i ll iamsbu rg East 7 Courtya rd by Marriott 8 Fort Magruder INN 9 Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsb urg 10 Holiday Inn Express Wi lli amsburg Busch Gardens Area 11 Johnson's Guest House PAZ:b L York County 12 Maceo Consol idated Lod ge 13 Newport House Bed & Breakfa st 14 OYO Hotel W ill iamsburg Busch Gardens 15 Pineapple Inn and Housing Center 16 Qua l ity Inn & Suites 17 Rodeway Inn & Suites 18 Super 8 W i ll iamsburg His t oric Area Figure E-14
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, _.. 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings KLOEngineering, www.census.gov Figure E-13. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (2 of 3)
Surry Power Station E-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
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Map No. Fac ility Name 1 Aldri ch House Bed & Breakfast 2 Alice Person House 3 Amer ica's Inn 4 Apple wood Colo ni al B & B In c 5 Best Western Inn 6 Best Western Will iamsburg Historic District
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8 Bl uegreen Vacations Patrick Henry Sqr, Ascend Resort Collection 9 Budget Inn Wil liamsburg e i.i ~* '"' f' 10 Chi swell Bucktrout House 11 Club Wyndham Patriots' Place 12 Colon ial Capital Bed & Breakfast 13 Comfort Inn 14 Comfort Su ites
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y 23 Hampton Inn & Suites <l" 24 Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg
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...\..,_\q;~'?, ~ o Figure E-14. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (3 of 3)
Surry Power Station E-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Map No . Faci lity Name 1 CampPeary 2 Cheatham Annex Naval Su pp ly Center 3 Fort Eustis 4 Merrima c Juvenile Detention Center I
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Date: 7/10/202 2 Copyright:ESRI 0ataandMaps 2020
'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings KL0 Engineering, Domiinion /
2.5 www.census.gov Figure E-15. Correctional Facilities and Military Installations within the EPZ Surry Power Station E-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
APPENDIX F Demographic Survey
F. DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Surry Power Station (SPS) Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area.
Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.
These concerns are addressed by conducting a demographic survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ... ?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you t 0 ....?")
F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used for the demographic survey. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.
Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. Since the demographic survey discussed herein was performed in 2020 and the 2020 Census data had not been released, 2010 Census data was used to develop the sampling plan.
A sample size of approximately 471 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-4.5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying the 2010 Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each zip code was identified, as shown in Table F-1.
Note that the average household size computed in Table F-1 was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study.
The number of samples obtained was less than the sampling plan despite a good faith effort put forward by the offsite response organizations (OROs) and Dominion. A total of 240 completed surveys were obtained corresponding to a sampling error of +6.31% at the 95% confidence level based on the 2010 Census households. Some survey responses from the Shadow Region were Surry Power Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
considered due to their proximity to the EPZ. Table F-1 also shows the number of samples obtained within each zip code.
F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.
A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "decline to state" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a decline to state response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional decline to state responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the decline to state responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.
F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the study area (EPZ and Shadow Region) based on the responses to the demographic survey. According to the survey, the average household contains 2.58 people. The estimated household size from the 2020 Census data is 2.51 people (including the Shadow Region population), as shown in Table F-1. The percent difference between the Census data and survey data is about 2.80% which falls within the sampling error of +/-6.31%. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication ofthe reliability ofthe survey.
Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the study area is 2.27. It should be noted that approximately 3 households (1.2 percent of households) within the study area do not have access to an automobile according to the demographic survey. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that two thirds of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.
Ridesharing Approximately, 69 percent of the households surveyed responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to evacuate in the event of an emergency, as shown in Figure F-4.
Surry Power Station F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Commuters Figure F-5 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.
The data shows an average of 1.27 commuters in each household in the study area, and 73.5 percent of households have at least one commuter.
Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-6 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority (approximately 90 percent) of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work or college. The data shows an average of 1.05 commuters per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average - for carpools.
Impact of COVID-19 on Commuters Figure F-7 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household that were temporarily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 48 percent of households indicated someone in their household had a work and/or school commute that was temporarily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Functional or Transportation Needs Figure F-8 presents the distribution of the number of individuals with functional or transportation need. The survey results show that approximately 7 percent of households have functional or transportation needs. Of those with functional or transportation needs, 9 homes (56%) require a bus, 3 homes (19%) require a medical bus/van, 3 homes (19%) require a wheelchair accessible van, and one home (6%) indicated they would require other accommodations.
F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed:
"How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?"The response is shown in Figure F-9. On average, evacuating households would use 1.47 vehicles.
"Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?"
Of the survey participants who responded, approximately 61 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 39 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members before evacuating, as shown in Figure F-10.
"Emergency officials advise you to shelter-in-place in an emergency because you are not in the area of risk. Would your This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 84.6 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 15.4 percent would choose to evacuate the area.
Surry Power Station F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. Thus, the compliance rate obtained above is significantly higher than the federal guidance. A sensitivity study was conducted to estimate the impact of shadow evacuation non-compliance of shelter advisory on ETE - see Appendix M.
"Emergency officials advise you to shelter-in-place now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 70.7 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 29.3 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.
"Emergency officials advise you to evacuate due to an emergency. Where would you evacuate to?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the destination of evacuees in case of an evacuation.
Results show that 46.2 percent of households indicated that they would evacuate to a friend or relatives' home, 2.9 percent of households indicated that they would evacuate to an Evacuation Assembly Center (EAC), 26.3 percent to a hotel, motel or campground, 5.1 percent to a second or seasonal home, 0.9 percent would not evacuate, and the remaining 18.6 percent answered other/don't know to this question, as shown in Figure F-11.
"If you had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" Based on the responses from the survey, 67 percent of households have a family pet, as shown in Figure F-12. Of the households with pets, approximately 20.6 percent indicated that they would take their pets with them to a shelter, 77.4 percent indicated that they would take their pets somewhere else, and 2.0 percent would leave their pet at home, as shown in Figure F-13. Ofthe households that would evacuate with their pets, 97.3 percent indicated that they have sufficient room in their vehicle to evacuate with their pet(s)/animal(s) and 2.7 percent needs a trailer.
"What type of pet(s) and/or animal(s) do you have?" Based on responses from the survey, 94.1 percent of households have a household pet (dog, cat, bird, reptile, or fish), 2.3 percent of households have farm animals (horse, chicken, goat, pig, etc.), 3.6 percent have other small pets/animals.
F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
Surry Power Station F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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As discussed in Section F.3.1 and shown in Figure F-7, the majority (52%) of respondents indicated no commuters were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic; therefore the results for the time distribution of commuters (time to prepare to leave work and time to travel home from work) were used, as is, in this study.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities ofthe mobilization.
"Approximately how much time would it take Commuter to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?" Figure F-14 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by 40 minutes. Approximately, 86 percent can leave within 20 minutes.
"How much time on average, would it take Commuter to travel home from work or college?"
Figure F-15 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 89 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 45 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.
"If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area?" Figure F-16 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.
Results show that 95.5% of households can be ready to leave home within 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months ; the remaining households (4.5%) require up to an additional 30 minutes.
"If there are 6-8 inches of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8 inches of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable." During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street.
Figure F-17 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.
Approximately 82% of households can have their car cleared and the driveway passable within 75 minutes; the remaining households (18%) would require up to an additional 1 hours1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 45 minutes to begin their evacuation trip.
Note, that those respondents (about 17%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.
Essentially, they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.
Surry Power Station F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
F.3.4 Emergency Communications "At your place of residence, how reliable is your cell phone signal?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the ability to be notified in case of an evacuation.
Results show that 86.8 percent of households indicated that they have very reliable signal to receive texts and phone calls, 4.6 percent indicated that their signal is reliable for text messages only, and 8.6 percent indicated that they do not always receive cell communications at their residence, as shown in Figure F-18.
"Emergency management officials in your state may send text messages, similar to AMBER Alerts, with emergency directions for the public during a radiological emergency at the Surry Power Station. How likely would you be to take action on these directions, if you received the message?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the likelihood of an individual to take action based on emergency management officials' guidelines.
Results show 78.9 percent of households indicated that they are highly likely to take action on these directions, 19. 7 percent indicated likely, 0. 7 percent indicated neither likely nor unlikely, and 0.7 percent indicated unlikely, as shown in Figure F-19.
"Which of the following emergency communication methods do you think is most likely to alert you at your residence?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the most efficient way to alert residents within the EPZ.
Responses received show that 20. 7 percent indicated that a siren sounding near their home would be the most likely method, 43.1 percent of households indicated that a text message from emergency officials would be most likely to alert them at their residence, 4.9 percent indicated an alert broadcast on the radio, 13.5 percent indicated an alert broadcast on the TV, 9.2 percent indicated that information on Twitter or Facebook would be the most likely to alert those at their residence, 7 .6 percent indicated that a phone call/text message from a family member, friend or neighbor would be the most likely way to alert them at their residence, and 1 percent answered "other" to this question, as shown in Figure F-20.
Surry Power Station F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table F-1. SPS Demographic Survey Sampling Plan Population Households Population Households Desired Sample Location Zip Code (2010) (2010) (2020) (2020) Sample Obtained 23185 46,255 17,212 50,727 19,336 113 74 23187 267 0 646 6 0 1 23188 21,503 9,083 41,369 17,388 61 37 23430 1,418 581 13,356 5,362 4 7 23602 24,664 9,448 41,949 17,701 63 31 23603 3,884 1,355 3,598 1,414 9 2 23604 5720 837 5,160 945 6 0 N 23606 5 2 31,534 12,750 0 7 Q.
LU 23608 42638 16306 44,032 17,607 108 38 23690 2465 920 3,878 1,332 6 2 23691 127 34 127 42 1 0 23692 67 26 18,092 7,179 1 11 23839 103 39 302 131 1 0 23846 362 139 940 370 1 1 23881 663 308 983 453 2 0 23883 2536 992 2,238 973 7 4 EPZTotal 152,677 57,282 258,931 102,989 383 215 C:
23168 697 257 686 281 7 0
"So 23487 31 11 29 11 2 a.,
a:: 23696 2400 873 2,381 905 2 3 N/A 0 23693 11487 4045 11,873 4,309 4 "C
11)
..c: 23601 12759 5769 13,047 5,829 9 V')
23890 0 0 3 1 1 Shadow Region Total 27,374 10,955 28,019 11,336 N/A 25 Grand Total 180,051 68,237 286,950 114,325 383 240 Average Household Size: 2.64 2.51 Surry Power Station F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Household Size 50%
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People Figure F-1. Household Size in the Study Area Vehicle Availability 50%
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0 1 2 3 4 5 Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Surry Power Station F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-6+ Person Households 1 Person 2 People 3 People 4 People 5 People 6+ People 100%
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0 1 2 3 4 5 Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 6+ Person Households Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%
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Yes No Figure F-4. Household Ridesharing Preference Surry Power Station F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Commuters Per Household 50%
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Commuters Figure F-5. Commuters per Households in the Study Area Travel Mode to Work 100%
80%
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Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)
Mode of Travel Figure F-6. Modes of Travel in the Study Area Surry Power Station F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0
COVID-19 Impact to Commuters 60%
50%
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Commuters Figure F-7. Impact to Commuters due to the COVID-19 Pandemic Functional or Transportation Needs 10 9
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Bus Medical Bus/Van Wheelchair Accessible Other Vehicle Figure F-8. Households with Functional or Transportation Needs Surry Power Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Evacuating Vehicles Per Household 100%
"C Ill 80%
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Vehicles Figure F-9. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Await Returning Commuter Before Leaving 100%
80%
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Yes, would await return No, would evacuate Figure F-10. Percent of Households that Await Returning Commuter Before Leaving Surry Power Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0
Evacuation Destinations 50%
40%
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Friend/Relative's Evacuation Hotel, Motel, or A Second/Seasonal Would not Other/Don't Know Home Assembly Center Campground Home Evacuate Figure F-11. Study Area Evacuation Destinations Households with Pets/Animals 100%
80%
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Yes No Figure F-12. Households with Pets/Animals Surry Power Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0
Households Evacuating with Pets/Animals 80%
60%
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Take with me to a Shelter Take with me to Somewhere Leave Pet at Home Else Figure F-13. Households Evacuating with Pets/Animals Time to Prepare to Leave Work/College 100%
80%
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Preparation Time (min)
Figure F-14. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/College Surry Power Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0
Time to Commute Home From Work/College 100%
80%
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Figure F-15. Time to Commute Home from Work/College Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%
80%
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Figure F-16. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Surry Power Station F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%
80%
Ill "C
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s 0
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Time(min)
Figure F-17. Time to Remove 6-8" of Snow from Driveway or Curb Cell Phone Signal Reliability 100%
80%
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VERY RELIABLE TO RECEIVE RELIABLE FOR TEXT MESSAGES I DO NOT ALWAYS RECEIVE CELL TEXTS AND PHONE CALLS ONLY COMMUNICATIONS AT MY RESIDENCE Figure F-18. Cell Phone Signal Reliability Surry Power Station F-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0
Likelihood to Take Action Based off Guidelines 100%
80%
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HIGHLY LIKELY LIKELY NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY UNLIKELY Figure F-19. Likelihood to Take Action Based off Emergency Management Officials Guidelines Emergency Communications 100%
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A SIREN A TEXT MESSAGE ALERT ALERT INFORMATION PHONE OTHER SOUNDING NEAR FROM BROADCAST ON BROADCAST ON ON TWITTER OR CALL/TEXT YOUR HOME EMERGENCY RADIO TV FACEBOOK MESSAGE FROM OFFICIALS FAMILY, FRIEND, OR NEIGHBOR Figure F-20. Emergency Communication Alert Surry Power Station F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.0
ATTACHMENT A Demographic Survey Instrument Surry Power Station 18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Surry Power Station Demographic Survey
Required Purpose The purpose of this survey is to identify local behavior during emergency situations. The information gathered in this survey will be shared with Dominion Energy and local emergency management agencies to enhance emergency response plans in your area. Your responses will greatly contribute to local emergency preparedness. Please only complete one survey per household . Please have the head of the household (18 years or older) complete the survey. Do not provide your name or any personal information, and the survey will take less than 5 minutes to complete.
1. 1. What is your gender?
Mark only one oval.
C) Male C) Female C) Decline to State C) Other:
2. 2. What is your home zip code? *
3. 3A. In total, how many running cars, or other vehicles are usually available to the household?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR C ) FIVE C ) SIX C ) SEVEN C ) EIGHT C ) NINE OR MORE C ) ZERO (NONE)
C ) DECLINE TO STATE
4. 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the area with a neighbor or friend?
Mark only one oval.
C ) YES C ) NO C ) DECLINE TO STATE
5. 4. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR C ) FIVE C ) SIX C ) SEVEN C ) EIGHT C ) NINE OR MORE C ) ZERO (NONE)
C ) I WOULD EVACUATE BY BICYCLE C ) I WOULD EVACUATE BY BUS C ) DECLINE TO STATE
6. 5. How many people usually live in this household?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR C ) FIVE C ) SIX C ) SEVEN C ) EIGHT C ) NINE C ) TEN C ) ELEVEN C ) TWELVE C ) THIRTEEN C ) FOURTEEN C ) FIFTEEN C ) SIXTEEN C ) SEVENTEEN C ) EIGHTEEN C ) NINETEEN OR MORE C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 7 COVID-19
7. 6. How many people in your household have a work and/or school commute that has been temporarily impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ZERO C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR OR MORE C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 8 Commuters
8. 7. How many people in the household normally (during non-COVID conditions) commute
to a job, or to college on a daily basis?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ZERO Skip to question 53 C ) ONE Skip to question 9 C ) TWO Skip to question 1O C ) TH REE Skip to question 11 C ) FOUR OR MORE Skip to question 12 C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 53 Mode of Travel
9. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive Don't Rail Bus Walk/Bicycle or more Alone know people Commuter 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Skip to question 13 Mode of Travel
10. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive Don't Rail Bus Walk/Bicycle or more Alone know people Commuter 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commuter 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Skip to question 15 Mode of Travel
11. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive Don't Rail Bus Walk/Bicycle or more Alone know people Commuter 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commuter 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commuter 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Skip to question 19 Mode of Travel
12. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive Don't Rail Bus Walk/Bicycle or more Alone know people Commuter 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commuter 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commuter 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commuter 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Skip to question 25 Travel Home From Work/College
13. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
14. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 33 Travel Home From Work/College
15. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
16. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
17. 9- 2. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #2 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
18. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-2, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 35 Travel Home From Work/College
19. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
20. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
21 . 9- 2. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #2 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
22. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-2, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
23. 9- 3. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #3 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
24. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-3, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 39 Travel Home From Work/College
25. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
26. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
27. 9- 2. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #2 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
28. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-2, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
29. 9- 3. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #3 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
30. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-3, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
31 . 9- 4. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #4 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
32. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-4, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-4, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 45 Preparation to leave Work/College
33. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
34. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 53 Preparation to leave Work/College
35. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
36. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
37. 10- 2. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #2 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
38. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-2, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 53 Preparation to leave Work/College
39. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
40. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
41 . 10- 2. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #2 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
42. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-2, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
43. 10- 3. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #3 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
44. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-3, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 53 Preparation to leave Work/College
45. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
46. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
47. 10- 2. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #2 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
48. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-2, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
49. 10- 3. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #3 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
50. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-3, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
51 . 10- 4. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #4 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1 HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
52. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-4, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-4, is under 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months .
Skip to question 53 Additional Questions
53. 11. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area?
Mark only one oval.
c=) LESS THAN 15 MINUTES c=) 15-30 MINUTES c=) 31-45 MINUTES c=) 46 MINUTES -1 HOUR c=) 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES c=) 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES c=) 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES c=) 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS c=) 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES c=) 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES c=) 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS c=) 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES c=) 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES c=) 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS c=) 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES c=) 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES c=) 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS c=) 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS c=) OVER 6 HOURS c=) WILL NOT EVACUATE c=) DECLINE TO STATE
54. If Over 6 Hours for Question 11, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 11, is under 6 hours6.944444e-5 days 0.00167 hours 9.920635e-6 weeks 2.283e-6 months .
55. 12. If there are 6-8 inches of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8 inches of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable.
Mark only one oval.
C) LESS THAN 15 MINUTES C) 15-30 MINUTES C) 31-45 MINUTES C) 46 MINUTES - 1 HOUR C) 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS C) 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES C) 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES C) 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES C) 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS C) NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT C) OVER 3 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
56. If Over 3 Hours for Question 12, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 12, is under 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months .
57. 13. Please specify the number of people in your household who require Functional or Transportation needs in an evacuation:
Mark only one oval per row.
More 0 1 2 3 4 than 4 Bus 0 0 0 0 0 0 Medical BusNan 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wheelchair Accessible 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vehicle Ambulance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0
58. Specify "Other" Transportation Need Below
59. 14. Please choose one of the following:
Mark only one oval.
(=:> I would await the return of household members to evacuate together.
(=:> I would evacuate independently and meet other household members later.
(=:> Decline to State
60. 15A. Emergency officials advise you to shelter- in- place in an emergency because you are not in the area of risk. Would you:
Mark only one oval.
(=:> SHELTER-IN-PLACE
(=:> EVACUATE
(=:> DECLINE TO STATE
61 . 15B. Emergency officials advise you to shelter- in- place now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you:
Mark only one oval.
C ) SHELTER-IN-PLACE C ) EVACUATE C ) DECLINE TO STATE
62. 15C. Emergency officials advise you to evacuate due to an emergency. Where would you evacuate to?
Mark only one oval.
C ) A RELATIVE'S OR FRIEND'S HOME C ) EVACUATION ASSEMBLY CENTER C ) A HOTEL, MOTEL OR CAMPGROUND C ) A SECOND/SEASONAL HOME C ) WOULD NOT EVACUATE C ) DON'T KNOW C ) OTHER (Specify Below)
C ) DECLINE TO STATE
63. Fill in OTHER answers for question 15C Pet Questions
64. 16A. Do you have any pet(s) and/or animal(s)?
Mark only one oval.
C ) YES C ) NO C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 69
Pet Questions
65. 16B. What type of pet(s) and/or animal(s) do you have?
Check all that apply.
DOG 0 cAT BIRD 0 REPTILE 0 HORSE FISH 0 CHICKEN GOAT PIG 0 OTHER SMALL PETS/ ANIMALS (Specify Below) 0 OTHER LARGE PETS/ ANIMALS (Specify Below)
D Other:
66.
Mark only one oval.
C) DECLINE TO STATE Pet Questions
67. 16C. What would you do with your pet(s) and/or animal(s) if you had to evacuate?
Mark only one oval.
C) TAKE PET WITH ME TO A SHELTER C) TAKE PET WITH ME SOMEWHERE ELSE C) LEAVE PET AT HOME C) DECLINE TO STATE Pet Questions
68. 16D. Do you have sufficient room in your vehicle(s) to evacuate with your pet(s) and/or animal(s)?
Mark only one oval.
C ) YES C ) NO C ) WILL USE A TRAILER C ) DECLINE TO STATE C ) Other:
Emergency Communications
69. 17A. At your place of residence, how reliable is your cell phone signal?
Mark only one oval.
C ) VERY RELIABLE TO RECEIVE TEXTS AND PHONE CALLS C ) RELIABLE FOR TEXT MESSAGES ONLY C ) I DO NOT ALWAYS RECEIVE CELL COMMUNICATIONS AT MY RESIDENCE C ) I DO NOT HAVE CELL SERVICE AT MY RESIDENCE
70. 178. Emergency management officials in your state may send text messages, similar to AMBER Alerts, with emergency directions for the public during a radiological emergency at the Surry Power Station. How likely would you be to take action on these directions, if you received the message?
Mark only one oval.
C ) HIGHLY LIKELY C ) LIKELY C ) NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY C ) UNLIKELY C ) HIGHLY UNLIKELY
71. 17C. Which of the following emergency communication methods do you think is most likely to alert you at your residence?
Check all that apply.
0 A SIREN SOUNDING NEAR YOUR HOME 0 A TEXT MESSAGE FROM EMERGENCY OFFICIALS 0 ALERT BROADCAST ON RADIO 0 ALERT BROADCAST ON TV 0 INFORMATION ON TWITTER OR FACEBOOK 0 PHONE CALL/TEXT MESSAGE FROM FAMILY, FRIEND, OR NEIGHBOR 0 OTHER
72. Fill in OTHER answers for question 17C This content is neither created nor endorsed by Google.
Google Forms
APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan
G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 indicates that the existing Traffic Control Points (TCPs) and Access Control Points (ACPs) identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling. The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by each city/county.
These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly. An analysis of the TCP and ACP locations was performed, and it was determined to model the ETE simulations with the existing TCPs and ACPs that were provided in the approved city/county plans, with no additional TCPs or ACPs needed.
G.1 Manual Traffic Control The TCPs and ACPs are forms of manual traffic control (MTC). As discussed in Section 9, MTC at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a TCP (or ACP), the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system, in accordance with Section 3.3 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. MTC at existing actuated traffic signalized intersections were essentially left alone.
Table K-1 provides the number of nodes with each control type. If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP or ACP, the control type is indicated as "TCP/ACP" in Table K-1. These MTC points, as shown in the city/county emergency plans, are mapped in Figure G-1. No additional locations for MTC are suggested in this study.
It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 120 minutes ofthe ATE to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.11, external traffic was considered on one route which traverses the study area - lnterstate-64 (1-
64) - in this analysis. The generation of the external trips on this route ceased at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months after the ATE in the simulation due to the activation of the ACPs.
G.2 Analysis of Key TCP/ACP Locations As discussed in Section 5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, MTC at intersections could benefit from the ETE analysis. The MTC locations contained within the traffic management plans (TMP) were analyzed to determine key locations where MTC would be most useful and can be readily implemented. As previously mentioned, signalized intersections that were actuated based on field data collection were essentially left as actuated traffic signals in the model, with modifications to green time allocation as needed. Other controlled intersections (pre-timed signals, stop signs and yield signs) were changed to actuated traffic signals to represent the MTC that would be implemented according to the TMP.
Nearly all of the TCPs/ACPs identified in the TMP that are not actuated traffic signals are located at intersections with stop control. Table G-1 shows a list of the controlled intersections that were identified as MTC points in the TMP that were not previously actuated signals, Surry Power Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
including the type of control that currently exists at each location. To determine the impact of MTC at these locations, a summer, midweek, midday, with good weather (Scenario 1) evacuation of the 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region and the entire EPZ (Regions ROl, R02, R03) were simulated wherein these intersections were left as is (without MTC). The results were compared to the results presented in Section 7. As shown in Table G-2, the ETE did not change when MTC was not present at these intersections. The remaining TCPs and ACPs at controlled intersections were left as actuated signals in the model and, therefore, had no impact on ETE.
The reason MTC has no impact at this site is twofold:
1. The last of the congestion in the EPZ (See Section 7.3) is at ramps to 1-64 and on the main thoroughfare of 1-64. These are capacity constraints that cannot be improved by MTC.
2. Most of the intersections in the study area are congested in competing directions (east/west versus north/south). MTC provides little benefit in a highly congested environment such as this as the competing movements both need green time to traverse the intersection.
Although there is no reduction in ETE when MTC is implemented, traffic and access control can be beneficial in the reduction of localized traffic congestion and driver confusion and can be extremely helpful for fixed point surveillance, amongst other things. Should there be a shortfall of personnel to staff the TCPs or ACPs, the list of locations provided in Table G-1 could be considered as priority locations when implementing the TMP as the existing control at these intersections is not as efficient as an actuated signal or MTC.
Surry Power Station G-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Table G-1. List of Key Manual Traffic Control Locations Node Previous Control TCP/ACP Name Number (Prior to being a TCP/ACP}
Barricade Rt. 645 (Airport Road) at Rt. F 137 (East 80 Stop Rochambeau Drive).
Centerville Road (Rt 614) & Jolly Pond Road (Rt 633) 149 Stop Centerville Road (Rt 614) & Jolly Pond Road (Rt 611) 134 Yield with conflict Depue Drive (Rt 615) & Ashbury Road (Rt 322) 184 Stop Capitol Landing Road and Route 143 210 Stop Colonial Parkway at Hubbard Lane (Route 716) 241 Stop Intersection of Penniman Road and Jackson Drive 248 Stop John Tyler Highway (Rt 5) & Greensprings Road (Rt 614) 268 Stop Monticello Avenue (Rt 5000) & Greenspring Plantation Drive 276 Stop Jamestown Road (Rt 31) & Neck-o-land Road (Rt 682) 279 Stop Colonial Parkway at Route 199 305 Stop Pocahontas Trail (Rt 60) @ Carters Grove 421 Stop Ft. Eustis Boulevard and Richneck Road (in York County) 535 Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 617 (Bacons Castle 930 Stop Trail)
Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 650 (Hog Island Road) 941 Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 627 (Mantura Road) 942 Stop Route 10 (Old Stage Highway)/676 (Fort Huger Drive) 945 Stop Route 621 (Burwells Bay Road)/Route 626 (Mill Swamp Road) 976 Stop Route 621 (Burwells Bay Road)/Route 627 (Moonlight Road) 981 Stop Route 677 (Wrenns Mill Road)/ Route 10 (Old Stage Highway) 1014 Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail West) and Route 618 (Hollybush Road) 1035 Stop Route 31 (Rolfe Highway) and Route 637 (Pleasant Point Road) 1255 Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 634 (Alliance Road) 1262 Stop Route 622 (Runnymede Road) and Route 616 (Golden Hill 1282 Stop Road)
Route 626 (Beechland Road) and Route 617 (White Marsh 1314 Stop Road)
Route 686 (Tylers Beach Road)/676 (Fort Huger Drive) 1844 Stop Richmond Road (Rt 60) & Forge Road (Rt 610) 1953 Stop Surry Power Station G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Table G-2. ETE with No MTC Scenario 1 Region 90th Percentile ETE 100th Percentile ETE Base NoMTC Difference Base NoMTC Difference R0l (2-Mile) 2:30 2:30 0:00 4:50 4:50 0:00 R02 (5-Mile) 2:45 2:45 0:00 4:50 4:50 0:00 R03 (Full EPZ) 3:55 3:55 0:00 6:05 6:05 0:00 Surry Power Station G-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS 0 Traffic Control Point and Access Control Point endrOn PAZ
-'\: /
Shadow Region Date 7/:!_,1/202~ 1
'-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings J~~?:~~~~~~!~~:,~~1i~i~n;s 202
~ w~ ensus.gov ~ -..:._
Figure G-1. Traffic Control Points and Access Control Points for the SPS Study Area Surry Power Station G-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
APPENDIX H Evacuation Regions
H EVACUATION REGIONS This appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-1) and maps of all Evacuation Regions (Figure H-1 through Figure H-49). The percentages presented in Table H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 7 of Section 2.2 and shown in Figure 2-1.
Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20% of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
Surry Power Station H-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Table H-1. Percent of PAZ Population Evacuating for Each Region Region Description ROl 2-Mile Region ROZ 5-Mile Region N/A R03 Full EPZ N/A Region Wind Direction From:
N/A WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237-11 R04 NNE, NE 12-56 ROS ENE, E 57 -101 R06 ESE 102 -123 R07 SE 124-146 ROS SSE 147-168 R09 s,ssw 169-213 RlO SW 214 - 236
on Action Zone (PAZ)
Region Wind Direction From: Degrees 15 16. 17 .
18A ::
18B :
18C :1 18D **
19A *:
19B 20A I* 1:
20B 21 22A 22B: 23 24 I Rll I R12 I R13 N
NNE NE 349-11 I
I------ --- - -- -
I R14 ENE I I RlS I R16 I R17 E
ESE I l!!'.!J!! -
SE I RlS SSE 147-168 Ill 19 s 169 -191 Ill 0 SSW 192-213 I RZl SW 214 -236 I R22 237 -258 WSW I R23 I R24 I RZS lmlll R26 w
WNW NW NNW 259 -281 282 -303 304 -326 327-348 PAZ is not in the plume, but ii is surrounded by other PAZ(s) that are evacuating Surry Power Station H-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Region Wind Direction From: Degrees 15 16 17 18D 19A 19B 20A 20B 24 R27 N 349-11 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R28 NNE 12- 33 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R29 NE 34-56 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R30 ENE 57-78 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R31 79 -101 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R32 ESE 102 - 123 20% 20% 20% 20%
R33 SE 124 -146 20% 20% 20% 20%
R34 SSE, S 147 - 191 20% 20%
R35 SSW 192 - 213 20% 20%
R36 SW 214- 236 20% 20% 20% 20%
R37 WSW 237 - 258 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R38 w 259 - 281 20% 20% 20%
R39 WNW 282-303 20% 20% 20%
R40 NW 304-326 20% 20% 20%
R41 NNW 327 - 348 20% 20% 20%
Region Wind Direction From: Degrees 1 2 18D 19A 19B 20A 20B 24 R42 5-Mile Region N/A 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
N/A WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237-11 Refer to Region R0l R43 NNE, NE 12-S6 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R44 ENE, E 57 -101 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R45 ESE 102 -123 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R46 SE 124 -146 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R47 SSE 147 - 168 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R48 s,ssw 169-213 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R49 SW 214-236 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Surry Power Station H-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-1. Region ROl Surry Power Station H-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-2. Region R02 Surry Power Station H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-3. Region R03 Surry Power Station H-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-4. Region R04 Surry Power Station H-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-5. Region ROS Surry Power Station H-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-6. Region R06 Surry Power Station H-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-7. Region R07 Surry Power Station H-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-8. Region ROS Surry Power Station H-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-9. Region R09 Surry Power Station H-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-10. Region RlO Surry Power Station H-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-11. Region Rll Surry Power Station H-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-12. Region R12 Surry Power Station H-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-13. Region R13 Surry Power Station H-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-14. Region R14 Surry Power Station H-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-15. Region RlS Surry Power Station H-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-16. Region R16 Surry Power Station H-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-17. Region R17 Surry Power Station H-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-18. Region R18 Surry Power Station H-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-19. Region R19 Surry Power Station H-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-20. Region R20 Surry Power Station H-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-21. Region R21 Surry Power Station H-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-22. Region R22 Surry Power Station H-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-23. Region R23 Surry Power Station H-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-24. Region R24 Surry Power Station H-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-25. Region R25 Surry Power Station H-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-26. Region R26 Surry Power Station H-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-27. Region R27 Surry Power Station H-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-28. Region R28 Surry Power Station H-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-29. Region R29 Surry Power Station H-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-30. Region R30 Surry Power Station H-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-31. Region R31 Surry Power Station H-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-32. Region R32 Surry Power Station H-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-33. Region R33 Surry Power Station H-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-34. Region R34 Surry Power Station H-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-35. Region R35 Surry Power Station H-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-36. Region R36 Surry Power Station H-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-37. Region R37 Surry Power Station H-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-38. Region R38 Surry Power Station H-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-39. Region R39 Surry Power Station H-42 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-40. Region R40 Surry Power Station H-43 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-41. Region R41 Surry Power Station H-44 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-42. Region R42 Surry Power Station H-45 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-43. Region R43 Surry Power Station H-46 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-44. Region R44 Surry Power Station H-47 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-45. Region R45 Surry Power Station H-48 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-46. Region R46 Surry Power Station H-49 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-47. Region R47 Surry Power Station H-50 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-48. Region R48 Surry Power Station H-51 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
~ Evacuate
~ Shelter, then Evacuate
'- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
- - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-49. Region R49 Surry Power Station H-52 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
APPENDIXJ Representative Inputs to and Outputs from the DYNEV II System
J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM This appendix presents data input to and output from the DYNEV II System.
Table J-1 provides source (vehicle loading) and destination information for several roadway segments (links) in the analysis network. In total, there are 604 source links (origins) in the model. The source links are shown as centroid points in Figure J-1. On average, vehicles travel a straight-line distance of 5.18 miles to exit the study area.
Table J-2 provides network-wide statistics (average travel time, average delay time 1, average speed and number of vehicles) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) for each scenario. Rain/light snow scenarios (Scenarios 2, 4, 7, and 10) and heavy snow scenarios (Scenarios 8 and 11), exhibit slower average speeds and longer average travel times compared to good weather scenarios. As expected, when comparing Scenario 13 (special event) and Scenario 3, the additional vehicles introduced by the special event reduces the network-wide average speed and increases the network-wide average travel time due to the increased traffic congestion. When comparing Scenario 14 (roadway closure) and Scenario 1, the single lane closure on 1-64 westbound decreases the network-wide average speed and increases the network-wide average travel time and delay, as expected.
Table J-3 provides statistics (average speed and travel time) for the major evacuation routes -
lnterstate-64, US-60, and SR-5 westbound - for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. As shown in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8, there is significant traffic congestion in the EPZ north of the James River for the duration of the evacuation. The average speeds for US-60 in both directions, 1-64 westbound, and SR 5 westbound are very slow (travel times are very long) for the first 4 hours4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months of the evacuation. Traffic dissipates after the 4 th hour and travel speeds increase significantly (travel times decrease significantly). Traffic congestion on 1-64 eastbound dissipates after the 2nd hour of the evacuation and travel speeds increase significantly (travel times decrease significantly).
Table J-4 provides the number of vehicles discharged and the cumulative percent of total vehicles discharged for each link exiting the analysis network, for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. Refer to the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each link. As expected, the highest capacity roadways (1-64 and 1-664) in the network service the highest percentage (47% total) of evacuating vehicles.
Figure J-2 through Figure J-15 plot the trip generation time versus the ETE for each of the 14 Scenarios considered. The distance between the trip generation and ETE curves is the travel time. Plots of trip generation time versus ETE are indicative of the level of traffic congestion during evacuation. For low population density sites, the curves are close together, indicating short travel times and minimal traffic congestion. For higher population density sites, the curves are farther apart indicating longer travel times and the presence of traffic congestion. As seen in Figure J-2 through Figure J-15, the curves are significantly separated due to the presence of traffic congestion within the EPZ, which was discussed in detail in Section 7.3.
1 Computed as the difference of the average travel time and the average ideal travel time under free flow conditions.
Surry Power Station J-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Table J-1. Sample Simulation Model Input Vehicles Entering Link Upstream Downstream Network Directional Destination Destination Number Node Node on this Link Preference Nodes Capacity 8041 1,700 1526 1049 1262 376 w 8042 1,700 8078 1,700 8007 4,500 929 587 596 175 E 8009 4,500 8763 3,800 8007 4,500 865 540 539 575 E 8009 4,500 8763 3,800 8748 2,850 2403 1783 1225 678 N 8029 4,500 8564 3,800 8391 2,850 545 337 230 33 N 8763 3,800 8748 2,850 8101 1,700 1649 1150 125 189 N 8029 4,500 8564 3,800 639 393 388 134 NE 8391 2,850 8007 4,500 1126 735 736 55 E 8009 4,500 8763 3,800 8007 4,500 1331 900 1511 169 SE 8009 4,500 8763 3,800 8005 3,800 1922 1387 692 81 SE 8006 2,850 8007 4,500 Surry Power Station J-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Table J-2. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03)
Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Network-Wide Average 5.6 6.5 5.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.5 Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 4.2 5.1 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.0 5.1 Delay Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 10.7 9.2 11.8 10.4 10.2 11.0 9.2 Speed (mph)
Total Vehicles 158,276 159,051 140,832 141,336 137,176 157,663 157,995 Exiting Network Scenario 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Network-Wide Average 6.9 4.6 5.3 5.9 4.7 5.3 6.1 Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 5.4 3.2 3.9 4.5 3.3 3.9 4.7 Delay Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 8.8 12.9 11.4 10.2 12.7 11.3 9.8 Speed (mph)
Total Vehicles 157,872 133,203 133,810 133,674 124,304 147,304 158,449 Exiting Network Surry Power Station J-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Table J-3. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1)
Elapsed Time (hours) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Travel Travel Travel Travel Travel Travel Travel Travel Length Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Route (miles) (mph) (min) (mph) (min) (mph) (min) (mph) (min) (mph) (min) (mph) (min) (mph) (min) (mph) (min)
US 60 East 5.3 11.2 28.1 2.0 159.5 4.2 75 .1 27.7 11.4 42.3 7.4 42.3 7.4 42 .3 7.4 42 .3 7.4 US60 West 4.4 25 .0 10.6 4.7 56.3 10.0 26 .7 11.2 23.8 39.8 6.7 39.8 6.7 39.8 6.7 39 .8 6.7 1-64 East 5.1 52.6 5.8 13.3 23 .0 65.6 4.7 64.6 4.7 66.9 4.6 66.9 4.6 66 .9 4.6 66.9 4.6 1-64 West 7.1 26.0 16.5 5.9 72 .9 3.1 136.3 7.5 57.1 42 .2 10.1 63.0 6.8 63 .0 6.8 63 .0 6.8 SR 5 West 4.1 6.8 36.2 6.1 40.6 6.9 35.5 7.1 34.8 22.1 11.2 52.6 4.7 52.6 4.7 52.6 4.7 Surry Power Station J-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Table J-4. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 Elapsed Time (hours)
Roadway Network Upstream Downstream 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Name Exit Link Node Node John Tyler 1,009 2,564 4,140 5,838 7,452 8,032 8,032 8,032 8,032 Memorial 225 142 143 Hwy 5.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 5.1%
George 717 3,322 5,883 8,445 11,006 13,568 14,101 14,101 14,101 Washington 640 391 1562 Memorial 4.0% 7.2% 7.9% 8.2% 8.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9%
Hwy 558 1,228 2,029 3,094 3,641 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 Victory Blvd 1124 732 731 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%
Hampton 1,448 3,830 6,385 8,951 10,986 11,123 11,123 11,123 11,123 1141 745 748 Hwy 8.4% 8.3% 8.5% 8.7% 8.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.2% 7.0%
40 288 471 553 573 573 573 573 573 us 258 1462 1001 1002 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
222 518 668 733 746 746 746 746 746 SR 10 1520 1040 1041 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
99 264 351 390 398 398 398 398 398 SR 610 1522 1042 1294 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
219 657 918 1,032 1,058 1,058 1,058 1,058 1,058 SR 31 1559 1078 1253 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
White Marsh 142 326 374 396 401 401 401 401 401 1848 1317 1077 Rd 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Broadwater 97 484 724 833 861 861 861 861 861 1849 1318 1319 Rd 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
96 290 343 367 371 371 371 371 371 SR 616 1854 1324 1325 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
37 348 590 697 725 725 725 725 725 SR 32 2177 1586 1603 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
8 168 323 389 409 409 409 409 409 us 17 2199 1607 1604 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Hampton 612 3,491 6,711 9,870 12,395 12,596 12,596 12,596 12,596 Roads Center 2484 1853 763 Pkwy 3.5% 7.5% 9.0% 9.6% 9.7% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 8.0%
3,343 7,342 11,346 15,383 19,276 22,753 25,962 29,259 30,866 1-64 WB 2610 1958 1198 19.3% 15.8% 15.2% 15.0% 15.1% 16.1% 17.4% 18.8% 19.5%
1,607 4,509 7,232 9,650 12,358 14,611 15,787 16,350 16,545 Richmond Rd 2616 1961 1564 9.3% 9.7% 9.7% 9.4% 9.7% 10.4% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5%
1,249 2,777 4,305 5,708 7,170 8,698 10,226 11,754 12,720 Old Stage Rd 2617 1962 1926 7.2% 6.0% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 6.2% 6.6% 7.3% 8.0%
3,442 7,492 11,542 15,592 18,939 19,033 19,033 19,033 19,033 I - 64 EB 2619 1964 1612 19.9% 16.2% 15.4% 15.2% 14.9% 13.5% 12.8% 12.2% 12.0%
2,399 6,464 10,514 14,565 18,614 21,307 22,846 23,980 23,980 1-664 SB 2639 1980 1981 13.8% 13.9% 14.1% 14.2% 14.6% 15.0% 15.3% 15.4% 15.2%
Surry Power Station J-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
O;fC~St~r Gl ,,.,courthouse o1tcest'er Co1tnt
/ ..
/
1/ 23 4* ., ***4:
, * *-;;*l *
,.. 1.~.:
SPS
Source Link Centroid
-- Link Gl PAZ t::Sl Shadow Region 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile R.ings Figure J-l
Netwo rkS ources/Origins Surry power Station J-6 KLD Engmeering,
P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good
{Scenario 1)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 1)
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)
Surry Power Station J-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good
{Scenario 3)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 3)
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)
Surry Power Station J-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good
{Scenario 5)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 5)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 6)
Surry Power Station J-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow
{Scenario 7)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 7)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8)
Surry Power Station J-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good
{Scenario 9)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 9)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 10)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 10)
Surry Power Station J-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 12)
Surry Power Station J-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
~
0 C
a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario 13)
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)
- Trip Generation - ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u 80%
ca.,
> 60%
iii
-~
....0C a.,
40%
...ua., 20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-15. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)
Surry Power Station J-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
APPENDIX K Evacuation Roadway Network
K. EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK As discussed in Section 1.3, a link-node analysis network was constructed to model the roadway network within the study area. Figure K-1 provides an overview of the link-node analysis network.
The figure has been divided up into 79 more detailed figures (Figure K-2 through Figure K-80) which show each of the links and nodes in the network.
The analysis network was calibrated using the observations made during the field surveys conducted in February 2021.
Table K-1 summarizes the number of nodes by the type of control (stop sign, yield sign, pre-timed signal, actuated signal, traffic control point and access control point [TCP/ACP], or uncontrolled).
Table K-1. Summary of Nodes by the Type of Control Number of Control Type Nodes Uncontrolled 1,383 Pretimed 0 Actuated 256 Stop 148 TCP/ACP 169 Yield 49 Total: 2,005 Surry Power Station K-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Chai/es.City Charles City Co u n t y
\
Mathews County) l 5 ,6
.,,l Legend
SPS Node
- - Link Index Grid PAZ Shadow Region
'- __, 2, 5, 10, Da~
Isj of 15 Mile Rings Copyrig t: I ataandMaps20 J~ ht KLD ngineering, --m11rnon 'Gou ly www.census.gov Figure K-1. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network Surry Power Station K-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node GJ e;:::;:J PAZ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 1
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 1 Surry Power Station K-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
.lllilllitf:$,
City, C*ut~H; SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node GJ PAZ e;:::;:J Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 2
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 2 Surry Power Station K-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 3
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 3 Surry Power Station K-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
I ; ,9.36'-
1941) 193!1 v19~s
~~a,JIJ19371938=--
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 4
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid .,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 4 Surry Power Station K-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
-~*
193-l
.J!
.,l llp2 i
!I
.lo:*111:!t Cit:,
C'@4UUJ' SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 5
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-6. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 5 Surry Power Station K-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 6
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-7. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 6 Surry Power Station K-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 7
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 7 Surry Power Station K-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 8
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 8 Surry Power Station K-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid9
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-10. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 9 Surry Power Station K-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 10
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 10 Surry Power Station K-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 11
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-12. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 11 Surry Power Station K-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 12
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-13. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 12 Surry Power Station K-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 13
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-14. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 13 Surry Power Station K-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
PAZ:20B Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 14
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-15. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 14 Surry Power Station K-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
6l1tu1e:11,5;t11,t, c,uutty SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 15
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-16. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 15 Surry Power Station K-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 16
-+- Railroad M Park 0 2 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-17. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 16 Surry Power Station K-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
PAZ:23 SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 17
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-18. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 17 Surry Power Station K-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 18
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-19. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 18 Surry Power Station K-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 19
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 19 Surry Power Station K-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 20
-+- Ra!lroa:d M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-21. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 20 Surry Power Station K-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 21
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 21 Surry Power Station K-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 22
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 22 Surry Power Station K-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 23
-+- Ra!lroa:d M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-24. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 23 Surry Power Station K-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 24
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-25. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 24 Surry Power Station K-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
, ** ,u CU11 C4tfUtt1' y'lo.
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 25
-+- Ra!lroa:d M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-26. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 25 Surry Power Station K-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 26
-+- Ra!lroa:d M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-27. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 26 Surry Power Station K-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 27
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-28. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 27 Surry Power Station K-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 28
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-29. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 28 Surry Power Station K-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
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SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 29
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 29 Surry Power Station K-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 30
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-31. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 30 Surry Power Station K-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 31
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 31 Surry Power Station K-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 32
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-33. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 32 Surry Power Station K-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Jt1,11Af!$
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C'@fUtly SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 33
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-34. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 33 Surry Power Station K-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 34
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-35. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 34 Surry Power Station K-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 35
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-36. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 35 Surry Power Station K-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 36
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-37. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 36 Surry Power Station K-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate iJ{ SPS ~ PAZ Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
Node ~ Shadow Region
-,.. Link Water Grid 37
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-38. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 37 Surry Power Station K-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
\
\
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 38
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-39. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 38 Surry Power Station K-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
PAZ:18D SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 39
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-40. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 39 Surry Power Station K-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 40
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-41. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 40 Surry Power Station K-42 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 41
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-42. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 41 Surry Power Station K-43 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 42
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-43. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 42 Surry Power Station K-44 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 43
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-44. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 43 Surry Power Station K-45 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 44
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-45. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 44 Surry Power Station K-46 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 45
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-46. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 45 Surry Power Station K-47 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 46
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-47. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 46 Surry Power Station K-48 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 47
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-48. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 47 Surry Power Station K-49 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 48
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-49. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 48 Surry Power Station K-50 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 49
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-50. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 49 Surry Power Station K-51 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid SO
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-51. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 50 Surry Power Station K-52 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 51
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-52. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 51 Surry Power Station K-53 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 52
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-53. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 52 Surry Power Station K-54 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
-if!
f---"
I SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 53
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-54. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 53 Surry Power Station K-55 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
PAZ:1 SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 54
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-55. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 54 Surry Power Station K-56 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 55
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-56. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 55 Surry Power Station K-57 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 56
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-57. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 56 Surry Power Station K-58 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 57
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-58. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 57 Surry Power Station K-59 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 58
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-59. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 58 Surry Power Station K-60 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 59
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-60. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 59 Surry Power Station K-61 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 60
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-61. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 60 Surry Power Station K-62 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 61
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-62. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 61 Surry Power Station K-63 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 62
--+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-63. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 62 Surry Power Station K-64 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 63
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-64. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 63 Surry Power Station K-65 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Ham,:ifori SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 64
-+- Railroad Parle 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-65. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 64 Surry Power Station K-66 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
. SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node GJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 65
-+- Railroad Park 0 2 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 lnde,c Grid ,,- -.
Miles Da~~l(lJ)E-rlna Figure K-66. L"mk-Node Analysis Network - Grid 65 Surry Power Station K-67 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 66
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-67. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 66 Surry Power Station K-68 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 67
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-68. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 67 Surry Power Station K-69 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate iJ{ SPS ~ PAZ Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
Node ~ Shadow Region
-,.. Link Water Grid 68
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-69. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 68 Surry Power Station K-70 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate iJ{ SPS ~ PAZ Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
Node ~ Shadow Region
-,.. Link Water Grid 69
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-70. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 69 Surry Power Station K-71 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 70
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-71. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 70 Surry Power Station K-72 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 71
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-72. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 71 Surry Power Station K-73 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 72
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-73. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 72 Surry Power Station K-74 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 73
-+- Railroad M Park 0 0.5 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-74. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 73 Surry Power Station K-75 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 74
-+- Railroad Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-75. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 74 Surry Power Station K-76 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
l3ZIJ ~-t: /
~
1318 Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 75
-+- Railroad M Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-76. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 75 Surry Power Station K-77 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 76
-+- Railroad M Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-77. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 76 Surry Power Station K-78 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 77
-+- Railroad M Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-78. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 77 Surry Power Station K-79 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
Legend SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.., Unk Water Grid 78
-+- Railroad M Park 0 l eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Mile Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-79. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 78 Surry Power Station K-80 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
-,.. Link Water Grid 79
-+- Railroad Park 0 0.25 eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-80. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 79 Surry Power Station K-81 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.O
APPENDIX L Protective Action Zone (PAZ) Boundaries
L. PAZ BOUNDARIES PAZ 1 Surry County. Consists of the Town of Surry.
PAZ 2 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the James River; the east by Route 31; the south by Route 10; and the west by Routes 609, 610 and Eastover Drive.
PAZ3 Surry County. Consists ofthe area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east by Route 616; the south by Moores Swamp, Cypress Run and Route 648; and the west by Route 618.
PAZ4 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the James River; the east by Routes 636 and 634; the south by Route 10; and the west by Route 31.
PAZ5 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the James River; the east by Routes 633 and 634; the south by Route 10; and the west by Routes 636 and 634.
PAZ6 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north and east by Route 650; the south by Routes 10 and 634; and the west by Routes 633, 634 and the James River.
PAZ 7 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east and south by Route 617; and the west by Routes 616, Cypress Run and Mill Swamp.
PAZ8 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north and east by the James River; the south by Hog Island State Wildlife Management Area; and the west by Route 650 and the James River.
PAZ9 Isle of Wight & Surry Counties. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Hog Island State Wildlife Management Area; the east by the James River; the south by Routes 686, 628 and 10; and the west by Route 650.
PAZ 10 Surry County. Consist of the area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east by Route 627; and the south by the Surry and Isle of Wight County Line.
PAZ 11 Isle of Wight County. Consists of the area bounded on the west by Surry County line, bounded on the east by Route 627 {Moonlight Rd); bounded on the south by Route 626 {Jones Dr./Mill Swamp Rd.).
PAZ 12 Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east by Lawnes Creek; the south by the Isle of Wight County line; and the west by Route 627.
PAZ 13 Isle of Wight County. Consists of the area: Principally bounded on the north by Route 686 {Tyler's Beach Rd.) and 628 {Lawnes Dr.); bounded on the east by James River; bounded on south by Route 673 {Morgat's Beach Rd.) Rt. 10, 678
{Bethany Church Rd.), 626 {Mill Swamp Rd), bounded on the west by Route 627 {Moonlight Rd.), the Isle of Wight County line and Lawnes Creek.
Additionally, the portion of the Wren n's Mill Neighborhood bounded by Laurel Surry Power Station L-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Lane and Route 10, and Route F-662 (King's Landing Ln.) from Route 677 to 8464 King's Landing Ln.
PAZ 14 Newport News City. Consists of Joint Base Langley/Eustis.
PAZ 15 Newport News City. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 173; on the east by Jefferson Avenue, Bland Boulevard, CSX Transportation, Sluice Mill Pond, and Deep Creek; on the south by the James River and the mouth of the Warwick River; and on the west by Warwick River/Fort Eustis Shoreline and Lucas Creek.
PAZ 16 Newport News City. Consists of the area bounded on the north and east by the York County Line; on the east by Route 173; on the south by Denbigh Boulevard, Route 173, Lucas Creek, and Warwick River; and on the west by Warwick River/Joint Base Langley/Eustis boundary line and Skiffes Creek.
PAZ 17 York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Route 238 and York River, bounded on the east by Route 17, bounded on the south by Route 636, (Richneck Road), bounded on the south/west by Newport News City line.
PAZ 18A James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Penniman Road, on the east by Oak Drive and Government Road, and on the south and west by Williamsburg City line.
PAZ 18B James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by James City County line, on the east by Busch Gardens' eastern edge and Busch Cree, on the south by James River, and on the west by the Colonial Parkway.
PAZ 18C James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Boundary Road West, on the east by the James City County line, on the south by James River, Carters Grove and US 60, and on the west by Busch Gardens' eastern edge and Busch Creek.
PAZ 180 James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Carters Grove and US 60, on the east by Skiffes Creek Reservoir, on the south by Skiffes Creek, and on the west by James River.
PAZ 19A York County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Colonial Parkway, bounded on the east by Kings Creek, bounded on the south by the York County line, and bounded on the west by Government Road, Penniman Road and the York County line.
PAZ 19B York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Colonial Parkway, bounded on the east by York River, bounded on the south by Route 238, the Newport News City line and Route 64, and bounded on the west by King Creek.
PAZ 20A York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Route 645, bounded on the east by Interstate 64 and Route 143, and bounded on the south and west by the York County line.
PAZ 20B York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Camp Peary and Queens Creek, bounded on the east by the York River, bounded on the south by the Colonial Parkway, and bounded on the west by the York County line and Route 143.
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PAZ 21 Williamsburg. Consists of the City of Williamsburg.
PAZ 22A James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the Powhatan Creek, on the east by Lake Powell and Mill Creek, and on the south and west by the James River.
PAZ 22B James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 199, on the east and south by Colonial Parkway, and on the west by Mill Creek, Lake Powell and Route 31.
PAZ23 James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Centerville Road {Rt. 614), Longhill Road {Rt. 612) and Old Towne Road (Rt. 658), on the east by the Williamsburg City line, on the south by Jamestown Road {Rt. 31) and Route 680, and on the west by Centerville Road {Rt. 614).
PAZ24 James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Bush Neck Road {Rt. 633), on the east by Centerville Road {Rt. 614), on the south by Route 680 and James River, and on the west by Chickahominy River.
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APPENDIX M Evacuation Sensitivity Studies
M. EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES This appendix presents the results of a series of sensitivity analyses. These analyses are designed to identify the sensitivity of the ETE to changes in some base evacuation conditions.
M.1 Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Time A sensitivity study was performed to determine whether changes in the estimated trip generation time have an effect on the ETE for the entire EPZ. Specifically, if the tail of the mobilization distribution were truncated (i.e., if those who responded most slowly to the ATE, could be persuaded to respond more rapidly), or if the tail were elongated (i.e., spreading out the departure of evacuees to limit the demand during peak times) how would the ETE be affected? The case considered was Scenario 1, Region 3; a summer, midweek, midday, with good weather evacuation of the entire EPZ. Table M-1 presents the results of this study.
If evacuees mobilize one hour quicker, the goth percentile ETE remains the same and the 100th percentile ETE increases by 5 minutes. While the increase in 100th percentile ETE when mobilizing more quickly may seem counterintuitive, in a highly congested environment such as the SPS EPZ, this is to be expected. As discussed in Section 7.6, compressing the mobilization time can cause a spike or surge in demand during peak times which may exacerbate traffic congestion and prolong ETE.
If evacuees mobilize one hour slower, the goth percentile ETE is increased by 5 minutes, and the 100th percentile ETE remains the same.
As discussed in Section 7.3, traffic congestion within the full EPZ clears (i.e., all highways within the EPZ operate at Level of Service A) at 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes after the ATE. If the time to mobilize is less than 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months and 55 minutes, the 100th percentile ETE is dictated by congestion.
See Table M-1.
M.2 Effect of Changes in the Number of People in the Shadow Region Who Relocate A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE of changes in the percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region. The case considered was Scenario 1, Region 3; a summer, midweek, midday, with good weather evacuation of the entire EPZ. The movement of people in the Shadow Region has the potential to impede vehicles evacuating from an Evacuation Region within the EPZ. Refer to Sections 3.2 and 7.1 for additional information on population within the Shadow Region.
Table M-2 presents the ETE for each of the cases considered. The results show that eliminating
{0%) shadow evacuation decreases the goth and 100th percentile ETE by 5 minutes and 15 minutes, respectively. Doubling {40%), tripling {60%), and quadrupling {80%) the shadow evacuation percentage increases the goth percentile ETE by 10 minutes, 25 minutes and 50 minutes, respectively - significant changes. A full evacuation {100%) of the Shadow Region increases goth Surry Power Station M-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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percentile ETE by 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 10 minutes, also a significant change. Shadow evacuation also has a significant impact on the 100th percentile ETE. Doubling (40%), tripling (60%), and quadrupling (80%) the shadow evacuation percentage and full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases the 100th percentile ETE by 20 minutes, 45 minutes, 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 15 minutes, and 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months and 45 minutes, respectively - significant changes.
Note the demographic survey results presented in Appendix F indicate that about 15% of households would elect to evacuate if advised to shelter, which is slightly lower than the base assumption of 20% non-compliance suggested in the NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. A sensitivity study was run using 15% shadow evacuation and the goth and 100th percentile ETE remained the same.
The more people who voluntarily evacuate from beyond the EPZ boundary, the more the traffic congestion at the bottlenecks north and south of the EPZ (see Section 7.3) is exacerbated, which in turn prolongs ETE.
M.3 Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE of changes in the resident population within the study area (EPZ plus Shadow Region). As population in the study area changes over time, the time required to evacuate the public may increase, decrease, or remain the same. Since the ETE is related to the demand to capacity ratio present within the study area, changes in population will cause the demand side of the equation to change and could impact ETE.
As per the NRC's response to the Emergency Planning Frequently Asked Question (EPFAQ) 2013-001, the ETE population sensitivity study must be conducted to determine what percentage increase in permanent resident population causes an increase in the go th percentile ETE of 25% or 30 minutes, whichever is less. The sensitivity study must use the scenario with the longest goth percentile ETE (excluding the roadway impact scenario and the special event scenario if it is a one day per year special event).
Thus, the sensitivity study was conducted using the following planning assumptions:
1. The percent change in the permanent resident population within the study area was increased by up to 20%. Changes in population were applied to permanent residents only (as per federal guidance), in both the EPZ and in the Shadow Region.
2. The transportation infrastructure (as presented in Appendix K) remained fixed; the presence of future proposed roadway changes and/or highway capacity improvements was not considered.
3. The study was performed for the 2-Mile Region (R0l), the 5-Mile Region (R02), and the full EPZ (R03).
4. The scenario (excluding roadway impact and special event) with yielded the longest goth percentile ETE values was selected as the case to be considered in this sensitivity study (Scenario 8 - winter, midweek, midday, with heavy snow).
Table M-3 presents the results of the sensitivity study.Section IV of Appendix E to 10 CFR Part 50, and NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, Section 5.4, require licensees to provide an updated ETE Surry Power Station M-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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analysis to the NRC between decennial Censuses when a population increase within the EPZ causes the longest 90th percentile ETE values (for the 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region or entire EPZ) to increase by 25% or 30 minutes, whichever is less. All base ETE values are at least 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months and 25 minutes; thus, 25% of these base ETE is always greater than 30 minutes. Therefore, 30 minutes is the lesser and is the criterion for updating.
Those percent population changes which result in goth percentile ETE changes greater than or equal to 30 minutes are highlighted in red in Table M a 1g% or greater increase in the EPZ permanent resident population (includes 20% of the Shadow Region permanent resident population). Dominion Energy will have to estimate the EPZ population on an annual basis. If the EPZ population increases by 1g% or more before the next decennial Census, an updated ETE analysis will be needed.
Note the 100th percentile ETE are significantly impacted by population change - a 50 minute increase for 18% population growth, and a 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months increase for 1g% and 20% population growth.
These values are not highlighted in Table M-3, however, because the federal regulations focus on the goth percentile ETE.
M.4 Enhancements in Evacuation Time This appendix documents sensitivity studies on critical variables that could impact ETE. Possible improvements to ETE are further discussed below:
Mobilization time has little impact on ETE (Section M.1). Nonetheless, encouraging evacuees to have essential items packed ahead of time, to mobilize expeditiously, and to have a family plan for evacuation could be beneficial.
Increased shadow evacuation significantly impacts the goth and 100th percentile ETE (Section M.2). Public outreach should be considered to inform those people within the EPZ (and potentially beyond the EPZ) that if they are not advised to evacuate, they should not as they could delay the egress of those people most at risk.
Population growth results in more evacuating vehicles which could significantly increase ETE (Section M.3). Public outreach to inform those people within the EPZ to evacuate as a family in a single vehicle would reduce the number of evacuating vehicles and could reduce ETE or offset the impact of population growth.
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Table M-1. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study Trip Evacuation Time Estimate for Entire EPZ Generation Period 90th Percentile 1001h Percentile 3:45 3:55 6:10 4:45 (Base) 3:55 6:05 5:45 4:00 6:05 Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study Evacuating Evacuation Time Estimate for Entire EPZ Percent Shadow Shadow Evacuation Vehicles 1 90 1h Percentile 1001h Percentile 0 0 3:50 5:50 15 (Demographic 13,734 Survey) 3:55 6:05 20 (Base) 18,312 3:55 6:05 40 36,624 4:05 6:25 60 54,936 4:20 6:50 80 73,248 4:45 7:20 100 91,560 5:05 7:50 1 The Evacuating Shadow Vehicles in Table M-2 represent the residents and employees who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation. The basis for the base values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees. See Section 6 for further discussion.
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Table M-3. ETE Variation with Population Change Region Base 18%
2-MILE 3:25 3:30 3:30 3:30 5-MILE 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 5:45 5:50 ETE for 100th Percentile Population Change Region Base 18% 19% 20%
2-MILE 6:30 6:30 6:30 6:30 5-MILE 6:35 6:35 6:35 6:35 FULL EPZ 8:25 9:15 9:25 9:25 Surry Power Station M-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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APPENDIX N ETE Criteria Checklist
N. ETE CRITERIA CHECKLIST Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA) 1.0 Introduction
a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) and surrounding area is Yes Section 1.2 described.
b. A map is included that identifies primary features of the site Yes Figures 1-1, 3-1, 6-1 including major roadways, significant topographical features, boundaries of counties, and population centers within the EPZ.
c. A comparison of the current and previous ETE is provided Yes Section 1.4, Table 1-3 including information similar to that identified in Table 1-1, "ETE Comparison."
1.1 Approach
a. The general approach is described in the report as outlined in Yes Section 1.1, Section 1.3, Appendix D Section 1.1, "Approach."
1.2 Assumptions
a. Assumptions consistent with Table 1-2, "General Yes Section 2 Assumptions," of NUREG/CR-7002 are provided and include the basis to support use.
1.3 Scenario Development
a. The scenarios in Table 1-3, "Evacuation Scenarios," are Yes Table 2-1, Section 6, Table 6-2 developed for the ETE analysis. A reason is provided for use of other scenarios or for not evaluating specific scenarios.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA) 1.4 Evacuation Planning Areas
a. A map of the EPZ with emergency response planning areas Yes Figure 3-1, Figure 6-1 (ERPAs) is included.
1.4.1 Keyhole Evacuation
a. A table similar to Table 1-4 "Evacuation Areas for a Keyhole Yes Table 6-1, Table 7-5, Table H-1 Evacuation", is provided identifying the ERPAs considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction.
1.4.2 Staged Evacuation
a. The approach used in development of a staged evacuation is Yes Section 7.2, Section 5.4.2 discussed.
b. A table similar to Table 1-5, "Evacuation Areas for a Staged Yes Table 6-1, Table 7-5, Table H-1, Table 7-3, Evacuation," is provided for staged evacuations identifying Table 7-4 the ERPAs considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction.
2.0 Demand Estimation
a. Demand estimation is developed for the four population Yes Section 3 groups (permanent residents of the EPZ, transients, special facilities, and schools).
2.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population
a. The U.S. Census is the source of the population values, or Yes Section 3.1 another credible source is provided.
b. The availability date of the census data is provided. Yes Section 3.1 Surry Power Station N-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
C. Population values are adjusted as necessary for growth to NA 2020 Census used as the base year of the reflect population estimates to the year of the ETE. analysis
d. A sector diagram, similar to Figure 2-1, "Population by Yes Figure 3-2 Sector," is included showing the population distribution for permanent residents.
2.1.1 Permanent Residents with Vehicles
a. The persons per vehicle value is between 1 and 3 or Yes Section 3.1, Appendix F justification is provided for other values.
2.1.2 Transient Population
a. A list of facilities that attract transient populations is included, Yes Section 3.3, Table E-5 through Table E-7 and peak and average attendance for these facilities is listed.
The source of information used to develop attendance values is provided.
b. Major employers are listed. Yes Section 3.4, Table E-4 C. The average population during the season is used, itemized Yes Table 3-4, Table 3-5, and Appendix E and totaled for each scenario. itemize the peak transient population and employee estimates. These estimates are multiplied by the scenario specific percentages provided in Table 6-3 to estimate average transient population and employee by scenario - see Table 6-4.
d. The percentage of permanent residents assumed to be at Yes Section 3.3 and Section 3.4 facilities is estimated .
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
e. The number of people per vehicle is provided. Numbers may Yes Section 3.3 and Section 3.4 vary by scenario, and if so, reasons for the variation are discussed.
f. A sector diagram is included, similar to Figure 2-1, "Population Yes Figure 3-6 (transients) and Figure 3-8 by Sector", is included showing the population distribution for (employees) the transient population.
2.2 Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
a. The methodology (e.g., surveys, registration programs) used Yes Section 3.6 to determine the number of transit dependent residents is discussed.
b. The State and local evacuation plans for transit dependent Yes Section 8.1 residents are used in the analysis.
c. The methodology used to determine the number of people Yes Section 3.9 with disabilities and those with access and functional needs who may need assistance and do not reside in special facilities is provided. Data from local/county registration programs are used in the estimate.
d. Capacities are provided for all types of transportation Yes Item 3 of Section 2.4 resources. Bus seating capacity of 50 percent is used or justification is provided for higher values.
e. An estimate of the transit dependent population is provided. Yes Section 3.6, Table 3-7, Table 3-11 Surry Power Station N-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
f. A summary table showing the total number of buses, Yes Table 3-9, Table 3-12, Table 8-1 ambulances, or other transport assumed available to support evacuation is provided. The quantification of resources is detailed enough to ensure that double counting has not occurred.
2.3 Special Facility Residents
a. Special facilities, including the type of facility, location, and Yes Table E-3 lists all medical facilities by average population, are listed. Special facility staff is included facility name, location, and average in the total special facility population. population. Staff estimates were not provided. Table E-9
b. The method of obtaining special facility data is discussed. Yes Section 3.5, Section 3.10
c. An estimate of the number and capacity of vehicles assumed Yes Section 3.5, Section 3.10 available to support the evacuation of the facility is provided.
d. The logistics for mobilizing specially trained staff (e.g., medical Yes Section 8.1- under "Evacuation of Medical support or security support for prisons, jails, and other Facilities", "Evacuation of Correctional correctional facilities) are discussed when appropriate. Facilities" 2.4 Schools
a. A list of schools including name, location, student population, Yes Table 3-8, Table E-1, Table E-2, Section 3.7 and transportation resources required to support the evacuation, is provided. The source of this information should be identified.
b. Transportation resources for elementary and middle schools Yes Section 3.7 are based on 100 percent of the school capacity.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
C. The estimate of high school students who will use personal Yes Section 3.7 vehicle to evacuate is provided and a basis for the values used is given.
d. The need for return trips is identified. Yes Section 8.1- no return trips are needed.
2.5 Other Demand Estimate Considerations 2.5.1 Special Events
a. A complete list of special events is provided including Yes Section 3.8 information on the population, estimated duration, and season of the event.
b. The special event that encompasses the peak transient Yes Section 3.8 population is analyzed in the ETE.
C. The percentage of permanent residents attending the event is Yes Section 3.8 estimated.
2.5.2 Shadow Evacuation
a. A shadow evacuation of 20 percent is included consistent Yes Item 7 of Section 2.2, Figure 2-1 and Figure with the approach outlined in Section 2.5.2, "Shadow 7-1, Section 3.2 Evacuation".
b. Population estimates for the shadow evacuation in the Yes Section 3.2, Table 3-3, Figure 3-4 shadow region beyond the EPZ are provided by sector.
c. The loading of the shadow evacuation onto the roadway Yes Section 5 -Table 5-9 (footnote) network is consistent with the trip generation time generated for the permanent resident population.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA) 2.5.3 Background and Pass Through Traffic
a. The volume of background traffic and pass-through traffic is Yes Section 3.11, Section 3.12 based on the average daytime traffic. Values may be reduced for nighttime scenarios.
b. The method of reducing background and pass-through traffic Yes Section 2.2 - Item 12 is described.
Section 2.5 Section 3.11 and Section 3.12 Table 6 External Through Traffic footnote
c. Pass-through traffic is assumed to have stopped entering the Yes Section 2.5, Section 3.11 EPZ about two (2) hours after the initial notification.
2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation
a. A summary table is provided that identifies the total Yes Table 3-11, Table 3-12, and Table 6-4 populations and total vehicles used in the analysis for permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, special facilities, schools, shadow population, and pass-through demand in each scenario.
3.0 Roadway Capacity
a. The method(s) used to assess roadway capacity is discussed. Yes Section 4 3.1 Roadway Characteristics
a. The process for gathering roadway characteristic data is Yes Section 1.3, Appendix D described including the types of information gathered and how it is used in the analysis.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
b. Legible maps are provided that identify nodes and links of the Yes Appendix K modeled roadway network similar to Figure A-1, "Roadway Network Identifying Nodes and Links," and Figure A-2, "Grid Map Showing Detailed Nodes and Links."
3.2 Model Approach
a. The approach used to calculate the roadway capacity for the Yes Section 4 transportation network is described in detail, and the description identifies factors that are expressly used in the modeling.
b. Route assignment follows expected evacuation routes and Yes Appendix Band Appendix C traffic volumes.
c. A basis is provided for static route choices if used to assign N/A Static route choices are not used to assign evacuation routes. evacuation routes. Dynamic traffic assignment is used.
d. Dynamic traffic assignment models are described including Yes Appendix Band Appendix C calibration of the route assignment.
3.3 Intersection Control
a. A list that includes the total numbers of intersections Yes Table K-1 modeled that are unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel is provided.
b. The use of signal cycle timing, including adjustments for Yes Section 4, Appendix G manned traffic control, is discussed.
3.4 Adverse Weather
a. The adverse weather conditions are identified. Yes Item 2 and 3 of Section 2.6 Surry Power Station N-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
b. The speed and capacity reduction factors identified in Table 3- Yes Table 2-2 1, "Weather Capacity Factors," are used or a basis is provided for other values, as applicable to the model.
c. The calibration and adjustment of driver behavior models for N/A Driver behavior is not adjusted for adverse adverse weather conditions are described, if applicable. weather conditions.
d. The effect of adverse weather on mobilization is considered Yes Item 6 of Section 2.6, Table 2-2 and assumptions for snow removal on streets and driveways are identified, when applicable.
4.0 Development of Evacuation Times 4.1 Traffic Simulation Models
a. General information about the traffic simulation model used Yes Section 1.3, Table 1-3, Appendix B, in the analysis is provided. Appendix C
b. If a traffic simulation model is not used to perform the ETE N/A Not applicable since a traffic simulation calculation, sufficient detail is provided to validate the model was used.
analytical approach used.
4.2 Traffic Simulation Model Input
a. Traffic simulation model assumptions and a representative set Yes Section 2, Appendix J of model inputs are provided.
b. The number of origin nodes and method for distributing Yes Appendix J, Appendix C vehicles among the origin nodes are described.
C. A glossary of terms is provided for the key performance Yes Appendix A, Table C-1, and Table C-3 measures and parameters used in the analysis.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA) 4.3 Trip Generation Time
a. The process used to develop trip generation times is Yes Section 5 identified.
b. When surveys are used, the scope of the survey, area of the Yes Appendix F survey, number of participants, and statistical relevance are provided.
c. Data used to develop trip generation times are summarized. Yes Appendix F, Section 5
d. The trip generation time for each population group is Yes Section 5 developed from site-specific information.
e. The methods used to reduce uncertainty when developing N/A There was no uncertainty when trip generation times are discussed, if applicable. developing trip generation times.
4.3.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population
a. Permanent residents are assumed to evacuate from their Yes Section 5 discusses trip generation for homes but are not assumed to be at home at all times. Trip households with and without returning generation time includes the assumption that a percentage of commuters.
residents will need to return home before evacuating. Table 6-3 presents the percentage of households with returning commuters and the percentage of households either without returning commuters or with no commuters.
Appendix F presents the percent households who will await the return of commuters.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
b. The trip generation time accounts for the time and method to Yes Section 5 notify transients at various locations.
c. The trip generation time accounts for transients potentially Yes Section 5, Figure 5-1 returning to hotels before evacuating.
d. The effect of public transportation resources used during Yes Section 3.8 special events where a large number of transients are Public Transportation is not provided for expected is considered.
the special event and was therefore not considered.
4.3.2 Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
a. If available, existing and approved plans and bus routes are Yes Section 8.1 under "Evacuation of Transit used in the ETE analysis. Dependent People {Residents without access to a vehicle)"
b. The means of evacuating ambulatory and non-ambulatory Yes Section 8.1 under "Evacuation of Transit residents are discussed. Dependent People {Residents without access to a vehicle)"
Section 8.2 C. Logistical details, such as the time to obtain buses, brief Yes Section 8.1, Figure 8-1 drivers and initiate the bus route are used in the analysis.
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Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria Analysis Comments (Yes/No/NA)
d. The estimated time for transit dependent residents to Yes Section 8.1 under "Evacuation of Transit prepare and then travel to a bus pickup point, including the Dependent People {Residents without expected means of travel to the pickup point, is described. access to a vehicle)"
e. The number of bus stops and time needed to load passengers Yes Section 8.1, Table 8-5 though Table 8-7 are discussed.
f. A map of bus routes is included. Yes Figure 10-2 through Figure 10-8
g. The trip generation time for non-ambulatory persons Yes Section 8.2 including the time to mobilize ambulances or special vehicles, time to drive to the home of residents, time to load, and time to drive out of the EPZ, is provided.
h. Information is provided to support analysis of return trips, if Yes Sections 8.1 and 8.2 -no return trips are necessary. needed.
4.3.3 Special Facilities
a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times is Yes Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-8 provided.
b. The logistics of evacuating wheelchair and bed bound Yes Section 8.1, Table 8-8 residents are discussed.
C. Time for loading of residents is provided. Yes Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-8
d. Information is provided that indicates whether the evacuation Yes Section 8.1 can be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.
e. Discussion is provided on whether special facility residents Yes Section 8.1 are expected to pass through the reception center before being evacuated to their final destination.
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f. Supporting information is provided to quantify the time Yes Section 8.1 elements for each trip, including destinations if return trips are needed.
4.3.4 Schools
a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times is Yes Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-2 through provided. Table 8-4
b. Time for loading of students is provided. Yes Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-2 through Table 8-4
c. Information is provided that indicates whether the evacuation Yes Section 8.1 can be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.
d. If used, reception centers should be identified. A discussion is Yes Section 8.1, Table 10-9 provided on whether students are expected to pass through the reception center before being evacuated to their final destination.
e. Supporting information is provided to quantify the time Yes Section 8.1, Table 8-2 through Table 8-4 elements for each trip, including destinations if return trips are needed.
4.4 Stochastic Model Runs
a. The number of simulation runs needed to produce average N/A DYNEV does not rely on simulation results is discussed. averages or random seeds for statistical Surry Power Station N-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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b. If one run of a single random seed is used to produce each N/A confidence. For DYNEV/DTRAD, it is a ETE result, the report includes a sensitivity study on the 90 mesoscopic simulation and uses dynamic percent and 100 percent ETE using 10 different random seeds traffic assignment model to obtain the for evacuation of the full EPZ under Summer, Midweek, "average" (stable) network work flow Daytime, Normal Weather conditions. distribution. This is different from microscopic simulation, which is monte-carlo random sampling by nature relying on different seeds to establish statistical confidence. Refer to Appendix B for more details.
4.5 Model Boundaries
a. The method used to establish the simulation model Yes Section 4.5 boundaries is discussed.
b. Significant capacity reductions or population centers that may Yes Section 4.5 influence the ETE and that are located beyond the evacuation area or shadow region are identified and included in the model, if needed.
4.6 Traffic Simulation Model Output
a. A discussion of whether the traffic simulation model used Yes Appendix B must be in equilibration prior to calculating the ETE is provided.
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b. The minimum following model outputs for evacuation of the Yes 1. Appendix J, Table J-2 entire EPZ are provided to support review: 2. Table J-2
1. Evacuee average travel distance and time. 3. Table J-4
2. Evacuee average delay time. 4. None and 0%. 100 percent ETE is
3. Number of vehicles arriving at each destination node. based on the time the last vehicle
4. Total number and percentage of evacuee vehicles not exits the evacuation zone exiting the EPZ. 5. Figures J-2 through J-15 (one plot
5. A plot that provides both the mobilization curve and for each scenario considered) evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of 6. Table J-3 evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ.
6. Average speed for each major evacuation route that exits the EPZ.
C. Color coded roadway maps are provided for various times Yes Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 (e.g., at 2, 4, 6 hrs.) during a full EPZ evacuation scenario, identifying areas where congestion exists.
4.7 Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public
a. The ETE includes the time to evacuate 90 percent and 100 Yes Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 percent of the total permanent resident and transient population.
b. Termination criteria for the 100 percent ETE are discussed, if N/A 100 percent ETE is based on the time the not based on the time the last vehicle exits the evacuation last vehicle exits the evacuation zone.
zone.
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C. The ETE for 100 percent of the general public includes all Yes Section 5.4.1- truncating survey data to members of the general public. Any reductions or truncated eliminate statistical outliers data is explained.
Table 7 100th percentile ETE for general population
d. Tables are provided for the 90 and 100 percent ETEs similar to Yes Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 Table 4-3, "ETEs for a Staged Evacuation," and Table 4-4, "ETEs for a Keyhole Evacuation."
e. ETEs are provided for the 100 percent evacuation of special Yes Section 8 facilities, transit dependent, and school populations.
5.0 Other Considerations 5.1 Development of Traffic Control Plans
a. Information that responsible authorities have approved the Yes Section 9, Appendix G traffic control plan used in the analysis are discussed.
b. Adjustments or additions to the traffic control plan that affect Yes Section 9, Appendix G the ETE is provided.
5.2 Enhancements in Evacuation Time
a. The results of assessments for enhancing evacuations are Yes Appendix M provided.
5.3 State and Local Review
a. A list of agencies contacted is provided and the extent of Yes Table 1-1 interaction with these agencies is discussed.
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b. Information is provided on any unresolved issues that may Yes Results of the ETE study were formally affect the ETE. presented to state and local authorities at the final project meeting. Comments on the draft report were provided and were addressed in the final report. There are no unresolved issues.
5.4 Reviews and Updates
a. The criteria for when an updated ETE analysis is required to Yes Appendix M, Section M.3 be performed and submitted to the NRC is discussed.
5.4.1 Extreme Conditions
a. The updated ETE analysis reflects the impact of EPZ conditions N/A This ETE is being updated as a result of the not adequately reflected in the scenario variations. availability of US Census Bureau decennial census data.
5.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Center
a. A map of congregate care centers and reception centers is Yes Figure 10-9 provided.
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ML22258A300

Text

Enclosure:

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

5.1 Background

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