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{{Adams
#REDIRECT [[RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 3]]
| number = ML14141A059
| issue date = 04/18/2014
| title = Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 3
| author name =
| author affiliation = KLD Engineering, PC
| addressee name =
| addressee affiliation = NRC/Document Control Desk, NRC/FSME, NRC/NMSS, NRC/NRR
| docket = 05000461
| license number = NPF-072
| contact person =
| case reference number = RS-14-151
| document report number = KLD TR-632, Rev. 0
| package number = ML14141A046
| document type = Evacuation Time Estimate/Report (ETE)
| page count = 128
}}
 
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II Systemdescribed in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover the 16 Evacuation Regions within theCLN EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables presentthe estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regionsfor all Evacuation Scenarios.
The ETE for the 2-mile radius in both staged and un-staged regionsare presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.
The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which aregenerated at 5-minute intervals.
7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation "Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in Sub-areas for which an Advisory to Evacuatehas not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate.
"Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outwardmovement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumedto take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the CLN EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown inFigure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in Sub-areas outside of the Evacuation Region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.
Similarly, it isassumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially fromthe plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. Thepopulation and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using thesame methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). Asdiscussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 16,458 people reside in the ShadowRegion; 20 percent of them would evacuate.
See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the CLN site, has thepotential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETEcalculations include this shadow traffic movement.
7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile radius are advised to evacuate immediately.
: 2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised toshelter in-place while the 2 mile radius is cleared.Clinton Power Station 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile radius, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continuepreparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate whenapproximately 90% of the 2 mile radius evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile radiusboundary.
: 5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadowevacuation percentage of 20%.The entire 2-mile radius and 5-mile radius for CLN is comprised of a single Sub-area
-Sub-area1. In order to consider a staged evacuation in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002, Sub-area I wasdivided into two pieces -the 2-mile radius and the remainder of the Sub-area excluding the 2-mile radius -as shown in Figure H-16. This postulated division of Sub-area 1 is purely foranalytical purposes (to quantify the ETE impact of staged evacuation) and does not imply orrequire Exelon or the offsite agencies to divide the Sub-area in the public information or in theiremergency plans.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.
7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-6 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the casewhen the entire EPZ (Region R02) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, middayperiod under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F isdefined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5):The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demandexceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.
However,particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Severalmeasures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOSF condition:
* Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceededduring the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);9 Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, I h, 3h); and-Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.
Theseinclude measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specificintersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.
All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; allothers are lightly indicated.
Congestion can develop around concentrations of population andClinton Power Station 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 traffic bottlenecks.
Figure 7-3 displays the traffic congestion within the EPZ 30 minutes after theAdvisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, about one third of transients and employees havebegun their evacuation trips, as well as about 16% of the EPZ residents.
Light traffic (LOS D orbetter) exists on the major evacuation routes within Clinton, the most densely populated areaof the EPZ. CR-14 also experiences light traffic from transients leaving Clinton Lake StateRecreation areas. All roadways in the EPZ are operating at LOS D or better.At 1 hour after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays peak traffic congestion within the EPZ. At this time,almost two thirds of evacuees have begun their evacuation trip and one half have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion forms along the evacuation routes within Clinton.
US-51 South,US-51 Business South, Illinois State Route 10 (IL-10),
and Illini Drive are operating at LOS F asvehicles evacuating westbound away from CLN mix with those evacuating vehicles within theCity of Clinton.
Congestion exists in the Shadow Region on N Wood Street as evacuating vehicles from Maroa have a stop sign at the intersection with US-51 South. Light traffic exists inthe Shadow Region along IL-54 and IL-10; however, all of these links are operating at LOS E orbetter. Due to the low population that resides within the 2 and 5-Mile region (Sub-area
: 1) andthe rapid mobilization of employees and transients, the 2 and 5-Mile region is clear of trafficcongestion, with all roadways operating at LOS A at 1 hour after the ATE.At 1 hour and 30 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, congestion within the City ofClinton has dissipated.
At this time, about 86% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips,and 77% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Light traffic exists on evacuation routes leaving Clinton with all roadways operating at LOS D or better. Congestion persists on NWood Street in Maroa in the Shadow Region. All other links within the Shadow Region areoperating at LOS E or better.At 1 hour and 55 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows that all congestion in the EPZ hascleared.
At this time, 94% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips and 91% haveevacuated.
ETE is being dictated by trip generation as evidenced by the close agreement between the number of vehicles that have begun their evacuation trip and those that haveevacuated the EPZ (94% versus 91%). All roadways in the EPZ are operating at LOS A at thistime. All roadways within the Shadow Region are operating at LOS A just five minutes later, at 2hours after the ATE, as the traffic volume on IL-54 declines.
The traffic congestion in the study area is minimal due to the presence of several serviceable evacuation routes and the low population density within the EPZ.7.4 Evacuation RatesEvacuation is a continuous
: process, as implied by Figure 7-7 through Figure 7-20. These figuresindicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R02) under the indicated conditions.
One figure is presented for eachscenario considered.
As indicated in Figure 7-7, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.
Vehicles begin toevacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then trafficClinton Power Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 demand builds rapidly (slopes increase).
When the system becomes congested, traffic exits theEPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared.
As moreroutes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ.Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by thesecurves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.
: Ideally, it would be desirable to fullysaturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and allwill clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope untilthe end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population
: density, mobilization rates and in highway capacityover the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) ResultsTable 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 16 Evacuation Regions and all 14Evacuation Scenarios.
Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile radius forboth a staged and un-staged evacuation of Sub-area 1 which encompasses the entire 2-mileradius and 5-mile radius as previously discussed.
The tables are organized as follows:ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. AllScenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. AllScenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the7-3 population within the 2-mile radius, to evacuate from the 2-mileradius with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of the balanceof population in Sub-area 1.ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the7-4 population within the 2-mile radius, to evacuate from the 2-mileradius with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of the balanceof population in Sub-area 1.The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-6.There is no congestion within the 2 and 5-mile region. Congestion within the EPZ is located inClinton (Sub-area
: 7) which is beyond the 2 and 5-mile region. This is reflected in the ETEstatistics:
Clinton Power Station 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
* The 90th percentile ETE for Region R01 (2 and 5-mile region) mimic trip generation timeand are generally between 1:10 (hr:min) and 1:30 and up to 1:55 for snow." The 90th percentile ETE for Region R02 (full EPZ) are approximately a half hour longer asa result of the limited traffic congestion within the City of Clinton.
The 90th percentile ETE for the Special Event for Region R02 are as much as 2 hours and 40 minutes longerthan for RO1 as a result of the large number of transients present in the city for theevent and the pronounced traffic congestion that develops.
" The 100th percentile ETE is dictated by trip generation time with the exception of theSpecial Event.Comparison of Scenarios 9 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -Apple and PorkFestival
-does have a significant impact on ETE at the 90th and 100th percentiles for thoseRegions that include the evacuation of Clinton and the rest of Sub-area 7 (Regions R02 and RIO-R14). The additional 27,921 vehicles present for the event drastically increase local congestion in Clinton and saturate all evacuate routes leaving the area. The 90th percentile increases by upto 2 hours and 35 minutes and the 100th percentile increases by up to 2 hours and 30 minutes.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane onUS-51 South (see Section 2.2, item 7 for additional information)
-does not have an impact onETE at the 90th or 100th percentiles.
Sufficient capacity exists (with the one lane open on US-51and the other routes -IL-54 and IL-10 -servicing Clinton) to handle all evacuating vehiclesdespite the loss of a lane on US-51.Despite the results of the roadway impact scenario, events such as adverse weather or trafficaccidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and localpolice could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as atravel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any ofthe major evacuation routes. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage, particularly within the first 2 hours of the evacuation when most people begin their evacuation trip.7.6 Staged Evacuation ResultsTable 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies.Note that Region R16 is the same geographic area as Region R01. The times shown in Table 7-3and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile radius is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.
The objective of a staged evacuation strategy is to ensure the ETE for the 2-mile radius is notimpacted when evacuating people beyond 2 miles from the plant. As shown in Table 7-3 andTable 7-4, the ETE for the 2 mile radius is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.
The reason for this is that the nearest traffic congestion to the plant is in Clinton -well beyondthe 5-mile radius. This congestion does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates towithin the 2-mile radius.Clinton Power Station 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefit to the 2-mile radius.Staged evacuation is not recommended.
7.7 Guidance on Using ETE TablesThe user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRCguidance calls for the 90th percentile).
The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table maythen be identified using the following procedure:
: 1. Identify the applicable Scenario:
* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)* Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition
" Good Weather" Rain" Snow" Special Event" Apple and Pork Festival" Road Closure (One lane on US-51 South from US-51 Business to CR-18)" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered
" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year,some further clarification is warranted:
The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are notexplicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are notexplicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) forrain apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are notexplicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) forsnow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows:" Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work orClinton Power Station 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the winddirection).
This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:
towards N,NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclearpower plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions aregiven below:0 2 and 5 Miles (Region R01)0 To EPZ Boundary (Regions R02 through R15)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on thedistance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from thefirst column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.
Then, for the Scenarioidentified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number definedin Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified inStep 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains thedesired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.
ExampleIt is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:
* Sunday, August loth at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radiusand downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).
* The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population fromwithin the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired.
Proceed as follows:1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining.
Entering Table 7-1, it isseen that there is no match for these descriptors.
: However, the clarification givenabove assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius andDownwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R04.Clinton Power Station 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 andRegion R04. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R04; it contains theETE value of 1:50.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter SummerMidweek MidweekMidweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend MidweekWeekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway RegionWeather Rain We Rain I Rain Snow W Ratn SnowWeather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event ImpactEntire 2 and 5-Mile Region, and EPZR0l1 1:20 1:25 1:10 1:10 [1:25 1:30 r1:30 1:55 1:20 1:20 1:50 11:25 ] 1:20 f1:20 [ R01R02 1:55 1:55 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:05 1:45 4:00 1:55 R022 and S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ BoundaryR03 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:20 1:25 1:50 1:30 1:20 1:25 R03R04 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 R04ROS 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 R05R06 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:55 1:55 R06R07 1:25 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:25 1:25 1:55 1:30 1:25 1:25 R07R08 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:25 1:25 1:50 1:30 1:25 1:25 R08R09 1:35 1:35 1:20 1:20 1:30 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:30 1:30 1:35 R09RIO 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:10 1:35 4:05 1:45 R10R11 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:05 1:35 4:05 1:45 R11R12 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:10 1:35 4:00 1:45 R12R13 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:30 1:35 2:05 1:35 4:05 1:45 R13R14 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:30 1:35 2:10 1:35 4:05 1:45 R14R15 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:20 1:30 1:40 1:40 2:05 1:25 1:25 2:00 1:30 1:25 1:30 R15Staged Evacuation  Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 MilesR16 1:20 1 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 11:30 1:55 1 1:20 11:201 1:50 1:25 1:20 1:20 R167-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summ__ Water SummWater Weather Weather Weather Weather Evente SumpaerMidweek_
Weekend_
Midwee M__ nirwe k 2ekn andee 5-Miled RegonandEP Enie2 and 5-Mile Region , and Kyoet EPZ BudrR01 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R01R02 3:20 3:20 3:20 13:20 3:20 3:20 13:20 14:20 13:20 13:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R02RO 320 320 320 320 320 3:20 3:20 4:20o 3:20 3:20ol 4:2 3:20 3:20u320aRy R03 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R03R04 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R04R05 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R08R06 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R06R07 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:50 3:20 R07ROB 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:45 3:20 ROBR09 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:45 3:20 R09R10 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:40 3:20 R10R11 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:40 3:20 R11R12 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R12-F-3:15Staged Evacuation  Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 MilesR16 3:15 3153:15 3:15 3:15 13:20 13:20 14:15 3:15 13:15 14:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 17-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-10Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Radius within the Indicated RegionSummer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter SummerMidweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend MidweekWeekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway RegionWeather Rain Rain G Rain Snow Ratn wWeather Weather Weather Weather R Weather R S Weather Event impactUn-staged Evacuation  Mile Radius2-Mile 2-Mil II Radius 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:05 1:00 1:00 RadiusUn-staged Evacuation  Mile and 5-Mile RegionR01 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:00 1:00 1 1:00 1 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:05 1:00 1:00 R01Staged Evacuation  Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 MilesR16 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:00 11:00 1:00 1 1:00 11:00 1:05 1:05 1:00 1:00 R16Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Radius within the Indicated RegionSummer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter SummerMidweek MidweekMidweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend MidweekWeekend IWeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday MiddayRegion Good Rain Good Good Good Rain Snow GoohRGood Special Roadway RegionWeather -Weather Weather Weather I Weather I S Weather Event ImpaUn-staged Evacuation  Mile RadiusRadius 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 4:15 3:15 3:15 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 RadiusUn-staged Evacuation  Mile and S-Mile RegionR01 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:151 4:15 1 3:15 13:15 1 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 RO1Staged Evacuation  Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 MilesR16 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:151 4:15 1 3:15 13:151 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 R16Clinton Power Station 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation RegionsRegion Description Sub-areaR01 2 and 5-Mile RegionR02 Full EPZSub-areaRegionWind Direction Toward:1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 67 1 8Region I Wind Direction Toward:I 2-Mile RadiusR16 I5-Mile Reeion7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-12KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Keyhole:
2 and 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind II Staged Evacuation:
2-Mile Radius & 5 Miles Downwind I* Plant Location E Region to be Evacuated:
100% Evacuation[:]
20% Shadow Evacuation y Shelter, then EvacuateFigure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-2. CLN Shadow Region7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 00:30 ...Fo0sland7x Bellflo werISu-a-- -ea-'----------
Way~7svI/eJ
/ Sub-area:
8Sub-area:
3I Sub-area."
...Sub-r. ......... 10 .. .10. .., =- ' .*" CLNE__ S Sub-area
.7." 2, 10, BMi Rings 5 10"--/Shadow Region Ei3 -osle..CoE I n& E64I OO .........
.Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to EvacuateClinton Power Station 7-15Evacuation Time EstimateKLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01:00 ---Fooslanaf .B /--l...r/:"- /... .....-,A%...I-
-45_ -- --Sub-area:-
7 "-- ..ene -Su-ae 6 .' Sub2- u-aeaELSub-area Sb-a 8.S 2,S,10, 5M ile Rings b /AAShdowRegion
.,1 -1 0 E. tgJ~ w .In .tr o .* -" "ti tM lehFigure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at I Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01:30 .//-y 1),. V, Sub-'ae-a:Sub-area:-2 A Cu r 6 Sub-area:
3Sub-ubaree:aSu -a4 Subare ..2, 5, 10, 15 Mile RingsS Shadow Region ... 1 3 .. .._I0_:_.0Es , klt ______________________Miles____
Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to EvacuateClinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01:55 -...... _, ... ......Be rfAwrS ""aSb-area:
) "-'L" ,&; Sub-area:
....ir?-'1~ne < Sub-area:
6710 Sub-area:
.~ 2, 5,1,1 M0 igS a w R i --.. -.-;.-.- ~ v .-.J..; -..-I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ " su-ra
'-..* '' " -" ;" "" "i" <'la......_ n. .-.-- ... ._blIar-..ea:'.--.-6.;
:;
,,,,
Su-ra5.'':: 'S' ...... .. ... .. ." &deg; /," " ",'""" ', < .. ..Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 55 Minutes after the Advisory to EvacuateClinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2 and S-Mile Region -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%1614C 12z o108"G -62LA 00 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-7. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 1 for Region R02Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2 and 5-Mile Region --Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%tw0316141210864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-8. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 2 for Region R02Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 6 100%1816bb 14.6m'~12103 86 6> 4200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240270Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 3 for Region R02Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%4r-(U01816141210864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 4 for Region R02Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ
* 90% 6 100%UCw03031210864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario S for Region R02Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%MUCrU.'3A0316141210864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240270Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 6 for Region R02Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-21KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2 and 5-Mile Region -....-Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%1614baC 12S4-010UJ 84200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 7 for Region ROZEvacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%
* 100%bfl.-o(U jIA0)16141210864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 8 for Region R02Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-22KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%1614C 12~ ~10S( aOJ 4200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 9 for Region R02Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%or(U016141210864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 10 for Region R02Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%1614C 12.4.-10EUUiu 8_6)~ 4200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 11 for Region R02Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2 and 5-Mile Region --Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%1210M -oUC0UE864200 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240270Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 12 for Region R027-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-24KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2 and 5-Mile Region ---Entire EPZ0 90%
* 100%an4-mL1A(U%n0504540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)300 330 360Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 13 for Region R02Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact(Scenario 14)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%toLUWZA.0'.Ctv1614121086420240 2700 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 14 for Region R02Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-25KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation timeestimates for transit vehicles.
The demand for transit service reflects the needs of threepopulation groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities suchas schools, preschools, day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3)homebound special needs population.
These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream isrepresented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.
Specifically:
* Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facilityThese activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will averageapproximately 90 minutes for school buses and 120 minutes for transit dependent busesextending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to beevacuated.
During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these isthe action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from schoolprior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.
Virtually all studies ofevacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process.
The currentpublic information disseminated to residents of the CLN EPZ indicates that schoolchildren willbe evacuated to reception
: centers, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at thereception centers.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.
Therefore, children are evacuated to reception centers.
Picking up children at school could add to trafficcongestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, whichmay have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.
This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children willbe picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002),
to present an upper boundestimate of buses required.
This study assumes that preschools, day-care
: centers, and daycamps are also evacuated to reception centers and parents will pick up these children at thereception centers.Clinton Power Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions
* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the reception centers8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand EstimateThe telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of thepopulation requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicleavailable.
Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.
For thoseevacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered,separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.
The actual need fortransit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.
However,estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent personswill evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use theirown cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends (IES, 1981). Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing.
We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transitdependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.
The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on anestimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transitvehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults).
If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then thenumber of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the averageload factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent.
Thus, if the actual demand for serviceexceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still beaccommodated by the available bus seating capacity.
[20 +(2 xo) + 40 x L.5 = 1.00Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 200 people. Therefore, a total of 7bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.Clinton Power Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring publictransit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the CLN EPZ:P = (EPZ Population
+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehiclesx Average HH Size of HH with 0 VehiclesP = (12,675 + 2.23) x 5.4% x 1.30 = 399B= (0.5 x P) + 30 = 7According to the telephone survey results, there are 1.30 people per house -on average -inhouseholds with no vehicles available.
The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by DeWitt County (discussed below in Section8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majorityof the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not registerwith their local emergency response agency.8.2 School Population
-Transit DemandTable 8-2 presents the school, preschool and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year.The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required foreach school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:
* No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (asdiscussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002),
the estimate of buses required forschool evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.
Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools andpreschools, 50 for middle and high schools, and 30 for day camps.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in theirprivate vehicles.
No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools arecontacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate ofstudents to be evacuated.
In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools willreflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high schoolstudents who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).
Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to childrenbeing picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or thosepersons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.
Table 8-3 presents a list of the reception centers for each school, preschool, and day camp inthe EPZ. Students will be transported to these reception centers where they will besubsequently retrieved by their respective families.
Clinton Power Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 8.3 Medical Facility DemandTable 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 168 people have beenidentified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.
The capacity and current census foreach facility was provided by Exelon. The number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound, andbedridden patients at each facility was obtained through phone calls to each facility.
The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can beaccommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair van runs assumes 4 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent PeopleEPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the timeof the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.
In the event that the allocation ofbuses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient",
or if there is a shortfall of available
: drivers, then there may be a need for somebuses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip,to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.
For this reason, theETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transitevacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R02(the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in theimpacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service thetransit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should bedispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position toboard the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather andadverse weather conditions.
Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transitoperations.
The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure8-1.Activity:
Mobilize Drivers (A--)B-->C)
Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive atthe facility to be evacuated.
It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.
Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes whenraining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:
Board Passengers (C--'D)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses isassumed.Clinton Power Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of traveltime must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. Thetime, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and finalspeed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:
T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+-2, aWhere B = Dwell time to service passengers.
The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during thedeceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to servicepassengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s,would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is:a aAssigning reasonable estimates:
B = 50 seconds:
a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, toboard per stopS v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rateThen, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops perrun, for good weather.
It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; totalloading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:
Travel to EPZ Boundary (D-4E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by Exelon and information obtained fromcalling medical facilities.
This data is summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table arethe number of buses needed to evacuate
: schools, preschools, and day camps, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) andcorrectional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6). These numbers indicate there aresufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes afterthe advisory to evacuate
-90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in goodweather.
The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along themost likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward theappropriate reception center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series ofnodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.
Each bus route is given an identification numberand is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs theaverage speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes aredocumented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K fornode locations).
Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on themobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for goodClinton Power Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows:Average Speed(-),n11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.L= x1lhr.on link length of link i (mi.) 60 min.S{Delayonlinki (min.) + I hr.I ~ ~current speed on link i(rThe average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of theschools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent
: persons, whichare discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using thecomputed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route outof the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the reception center was computedassuming an average speed of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain and snow,respectively.
Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 throughTable 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speedswhich exceed 55 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Illinois is 55 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather),
Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) Theelapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsedtime until the bus reaches the reception center. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can becomputed as the sum of times associated with Activities A->B->C, C->D, and D-)E (Forexample:
90 min. + 15 + 7 = 1:55 for Clinton Christian
: Academy, in good weather, rounded up tothe nearest 5 minutes).
The evacuation time to the reception center is determined by addingthe time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evocuotion of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will bescheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.
As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters),
almost all (96%)evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.
Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes,then proceed out of the EPZ. Transit-dependent staging areas are defined in the March 2013IPRA for CLN. The exact route traveled is not specified; therefore, routes were developed viathe shortest path from the staging area to the respective reception center. Routes from thesestaging areas to the EPZ boundary are shown in Figure 8-2 and listed in Table 8-10. It is assumedthat residents will walk to and congregate at these staging locations, and that they can arrive atClinton Power Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the staging locations within the 120 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).
Mobilization time is 10 minutes longer in rain and 20 minutes longer in snow to account for slower travelspeeds and reduced roadway capacity.
As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated witheach stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow,respectively.
The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using theUNITES software.
Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speedscomputed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for schoolevacuation.
Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation timeestimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain andsnow, respectively.
For example, the ETE for the bus route originating from the Weldon Fire House is computed as120 + 7 + 30 = 2:40 for good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.
Here, 7 minutes isthe time to travel 6.3 miles at 55 mph -the average speed output by the model for this routestarting at 120 minutes.
The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the eventthere is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.
The average singlewave evacuation for transit-dependent people is about I hour longer than the generalpopulation 90th percentile ETE.Activity:
Travel to Reception Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS softwarealong the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZdoes not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must beconsidered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.
Assumed busspeeds of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will beapplied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.
Activity:
Passengers Leave Bus (F->G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes.
The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:
Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G->C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people whomobilized more quickly.
The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and thebus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel timeto the reception center.Clinton Power Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The second-wave ETE for the bus route originating from the Weldon Fire House is computed asfollows for good weather:Bus arrives at reception center at 3:03 in good weather (2:40 to exit EPZ + 23 minutetravel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 23 minutes (equal to travel time toreception center) + 7 minutes (6.3 miles @ 55 mph to return to the start of theroute) + 7 minutes (6.3 miles @ 55 mph to traverse the route again)= 37 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:40 + 0:23 + 0:15 + 0:37 + 0:30 = 4:25 (rounded to nearest 5minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.
The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes areprovided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation oftransit-dependent people is about 1 hour longer than the ETE for the general population at the90th percentile.
The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is up to 2 hours and 30minutes longer than the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.
The designated reception centers also serve as congregate care centers.
Thus, the time neededto relocate transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centersis not applicable.
Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except:Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany thepatients.
Wheelchair vans can accommodate 4 patients, and ambulances canaccommodate 2 patients.
Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed forambulatory
: patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden
: patients, respectively.
Table 8-4 indicates that 5 bus runs and 26 wheelchair van runs are needed to service all of themedical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the municipalities and medical facilities canprovide 294 buses, 11 vans, 36 wheelchair vans, and 33 ambulances.
Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons from the medicalfacilities in a single wave.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 inrain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) willbe on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.
Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.
Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for goodClinton Power Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 forrain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph forsnow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.
The travel time to the EPZ boundaryis computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETEis the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of theEPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses and wheelchair vans at capacity is assumed suchthat the maximum loading times for buses and wheelchair vans are 30 and 20 minutes,respectively.
For example, the calculation of ETE for Allen Court (E Main St) with 5 ambulatory residents during good weather is:ETE: 90 + 5 x 1 + 10 = 105 min. or 1:45 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.It is assumed that the medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate hostmedical facilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility is notconsidered in this analysis.
8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population were estimated from the transit-dependent population and dataprovided by DeWitt County. There are an estimated 14 homebound special needs people withinthe EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate, Using the same breakdown asmedical facilities for non-ambulatory
: persons, all 14 transit dependent people would require awheelchair capable vehicle.ETE for Homebound Special Needs PersonsTable 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.
The table takes intoconsideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart. Van and bus speeds approximate 10 mph between households (10%slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutesfor rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZboundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed bysumming mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.
All ETE are roundedto the nearest 5 minutes.'
For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 14wheelchair-bound households need to be serviced.
Given a wheelchair van capacity of 4people, 4 wheelchair vans are needed to service the population.
The following outlines the ETEcalculations:
: 1. Assume 4 wheelchair vans are deployed, each with at most 4 stops, to service a total of14 HH.Clinton Power Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 2. The ETE is calculated as follows:a. Van arrive at the first pickup location:
90 minutesb. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutesc. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:
3 @ 9 minutes = 27 minutesd. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:
3 @ 5 minutes = 15 minutese. Travel to EPZ boundary:
5 minutes (5 miles @ 55 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 27 + 15 + 5 = 2:25 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutesThe average ETE for homebound special needs is about 1 hour longer than the generalpopulation ETE at the 90th percentile.
8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-8, there is one correctional facility within the EPZ -DeWitt County Jail.The total inmate population at this facility is 80 persons.
According to the DeWitt Countyemergency plans and discussions with Exelon, the inmates would Shelter-in-Place if anevacuation were ordered.
Thus, ETE are not computed for this facility.
Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)A Advisory to EvacuateB Bus Dispatched from DepotC Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up RouteD Bus Departs for Reception CenterE Bus Exits RegionF Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host FacilityG Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation ServiceTimeA-+ B Driver Mobilization B->C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up RouteC-->D Passengers Board the BusD->E Bus Travels Towards Region BoundaryE-4F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZF--+G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a BreakFigure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Clinton Power Station 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 8-2. Transit Dependent Bus RoutesClinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 201 .0 5P H Siz S01 -No wit No wit -o Reurn Ri r Puli Public12,675 2.23 5,684 5.4% 307 1.30 399 50% 200 H1..6%Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates 4 DeLand-Weldon Elementary School 26 14 DeLand-Weldon High School 52 27 Clinton Christian Academy 29 17 Clinton Junior High School 449 97 Clinton Senior High School 582 127 Douglas Elementary School 191 37 Lincoln Elementary School 316 57 Washington Elementary School 183 37 Webster Elementary School 325 5SCHOOL TOTAL: 2,153 417 Christ Lutheran Pre-School 20 17 Head Start 30 17 Kid Konnection 60 1PRESCHOOL TOTAL: 110 36 Little Galilee Christian Assembly Church Camp 120 48 Calvary United Pentecostal Church Camp 420 14DAY CAMP TOTAL: 540 188-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Reception CentersFacility Reception CenterSchoolsClinton Junior High SchoolClinton Senior High SchoolDouglas Elementary SchoolLincoln Elementary SchoolWashington Elementary SchoolWebster Elementary SchoolHorton Field HouseDeLand-Weldon Elementary SchoolParkland CollegeDeLand-WeldonHighSchool
_______________
Clinton Christian AcademyStephen Decatur Middle SchoolChrist Lutheran Pre-School
-I______________
Head StartHorton Field HouseKid Konnection Horton Field HouseClinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand7 Allen Court (E Main St) Clinton 8 8 _ 3 0 1 1 07Allen Court (N Alexander St) Clno88800100 7 Dr. John Warner Hospital Clinton 25 6 2 4 0 1 1 07 Hawthorne Inn Clinton 27 26 24 2 07Manor CourtClinton131 1 120309001230DeWitt County Subtotal:
1 199 j168 69 9j9 90 5j26j 08-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Trnprtto WhechiDeWitt County23914City of Decatur 86 0 6 12City of Champaign 0 0 0 10City of Bloomington 185 0 27 7Allen Court 0 1 0 0Hawthorne Inn 0 1 2 0Schools, Preschools, Day Camps (Table 8-2): 62 0 0 0Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 5 0 26 0Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 7 0 0 0Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 0 0 4 0Correctional Facilities (Section 8.6): 0 00Note: uewi[ Lounty Jail Sneiters-in-riace.
nro buses are neeaea to evacuate8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions BusRoute Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZNumber Description Boundary1Clinton Christian
: Academy, Transit Dependent
-Clinton Assembly of God Church473,474,475,476,477,302,303,304, 305,306Clinton Junior High School, Clinton Senior High 276, 315, 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286,School 287, 288, 289, 504, 505, 506, 676DeLand-Weldon Elementary School, DeLand-Wedn4ihScol415, 414, 363, 361, 360Weldon High SchoolDouglass Elementary School, Lincoln Elementary 272 273,274,316,315,281,282,283, School, Washington Elementary School, HeadStart, Christ Lutheran Preschool, Transit 284, 2,6Dependent
-Clinton First Christian Church275, 272, 273, 274, 316, 315, 281, 282,Webster Elementary School, Allen Court (N 283,282,286,27,3 28,3 289,9 Alexander St) 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 504,505, 506, 676272, 273, 274, 316, 276, 315, 281, 282,10 Kid Konnection 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 504,505, 506, 67613 Dr. John Warner Hospital 255, 256, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 302,303, 304, 305, 30614 Manor Court, Hawthorne inn 733, 262, 731, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305,30616 Allen Court (E Main St) 250, 251, 264, 255, 256, 473, 474, 475,476, 477, 302, 303, 304, 305, 30620 Transit Dependent
-Wapella Fire House 317, 327, 288, 289, 504, 505, 506, 67621 Transit Dependent
-Weldon Fire House 213, 417, 416, 415, 414, 363, 361, 36022 Little Galilee Christian Camp 305, 306, 30723 Calvary United Pentecostal Camp 505, 506, 676Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-18KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherClinton Christian Academy90156.655.07Clinton Junior High School 90 15 11.2 55.0 12Clinton Senior High School 90 15 10.5 55.0 11DeLand-Weldon Elementary 90 15 2.6 54.5 3SchoolDeLand-Weldon High School 90 15 2.5 54.5 3Douglas Elementary School 90 15 9.8 55.0 11Lincoln Elementary School 90 15 9.7 55.0 11Washington Elementary School 90 15 9.4 55.0 10Webster Elementary School 90 15 9.3 55.0 10School Maximum for EPZ:School Average for EPZ:PRESCChrist Lutheran Pre-School 90 15 9.9 55.0 11Head Start 90 15 11.2 55.0 12Kid Konnection 90 15 10.4 55.0 1112.4 1316.4 1816.4 1821.5 2321.5 2316.4 1816.4 1816.4 1816.4 18School Maximum:16.4 1816.4 1816.4 18Preschool Maximum:12 -U-1.,. A.m.--..0Preschool Maximum for EPZ:16.4 1812.4 13Day Camp Maximum:Day Camp Average:Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates
-RainClinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates
-Snow8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-21KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus RoutesWapell a grH1ing Ae e e aRel eHus .Tri n to tp.7Weldon Fire House1Picks up evacuees at the Weldon Fire House. Travels to the Reception Centerlocated at Parkland College.
Services Sub-area 1.6.3Clinton Assembly of God Church 3 Picks up evacuees at the Clinton Assembly of God Church. Travels to Reception 6.6Center located at Stephen Decatur Middle School. Services Sub-area 7.Clinton First Christian Church 2 Picks up evacuees at the Clinton First Christian Church. Travels to the Reception 9.Center located at Horton Field House. Services Sub-area 7.Wapella Fire House 1 Picks up evacuees at the Wapella Fire House. Travels to the Reception Center 4.located at Horton Field House. Services Sub-area 8.Total: 7Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-22KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates  
-Good WeatherWeldonFire House1120 I 6.3 I 55.073021.5235103730ClintonAssembly of 1-3 120 6.6 55.0 7 30God ChurchClintonFirst Christian 1-2 120 9.3 55.0 10 30ChurchWapella FireHouseMaximum ETE:Average ETE:12.3 13 5 10 27 3016.4 18 5 10 38 3016.4185102830Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-23KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-RainWeldonFire House11306.350.084021.5265104040ClintonAssembly of 1-3 130 6.6 50.0 8 40God ChurchClintonFirst Christian 1-2 130 9.3 50.0 11 40ChurchWapella FireHouseMaximum ETE:Average ETE:12.3 15 5 10 30 4016.4 20 5 10 41 4016.4 20 5 10 31 40Maximum ETE:Average ETE:Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-24KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-SnowClinton Power Station 8-25Evacuation Time EstimateKLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherAmbulator Tota to 5 .1P14Moiizto (mi per Lodn Dist. To EPZ BonarMen c Fot E Mn Sts P l TAllen Court (E Main St) Ambulatory 90 1 5 5 8.1 10 1:45Wheelchair bound 90 5 3 15 8.1 10 1:55Allen Court (N Alexander St) Ambulatory 90 1 8 8 9.5 10 1:50Dr. John Warner Hospital Ambulatory 90 1 2 2 6.8 7 1:40Wheelchair bound 90 5 4 20 6.8 7 2:00Hawthorne Inn Ambulatory 90 1 24 24 6.8 7 2:05Wheelchair bound 90 5 2 10 6.8 7 1:50Manor Court Ambulatory 90 1 30 30 6.8 7 2:10Manor __ourt_ Wheelchair bound 90 5 90 20 6.8 7 2:00Maximum ETE:2:10Average ETE:1:55Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-26KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-RainAllen Court (N Alexander St) Ambulatory10189.11:0 Ambulatory 100 1 22 6.8 8 1:50Dr.t Tothn tone ositaMr. J W r pWheelchair bound 100 Di4 20 6.8 8 2:10Awthorn in Ambulatory 100 1 2 24 6.8 8 2:15Wheelchair bound 100 5 2 10 6.8 8 2:00Manor Court Ambulatory 100 1 30 30 6.8 8 2:201 Wheelchair bound 100 5 90 20 6.8 8 2:10Maximum ETE:2:20MaxmumETI 2:20Average ETE:2:052:0____Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-SnowDr. John W arn Sta -Ambulatory 110 1 25 8.1 13 2:10Wheelchair bound 110 5 415 8.1 12 2:20Allen Court (N Alexander St) Ambulatory 110 1 88 9.5 13 2:15Dr onWre optl Ambulatory 110 1 22 6.8 10 2:05Dr onWre optl Wheelchair bound 110 5 20 6.8 9 2:20Hawthorne Inn Ambulatory 110 1 24 24 6.8 9 2:25Wheelchair bound 110 5 2 10 6.8 9 2:10Manor Court Ambulatory 110 1 30 30 6.8 9 2:30Wheelchair bound 110 5 90 20 6.8 9 2:20Maximum ETE: 2:30Average ETE: 2:20Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Mobiizg Loain Loain Tim to 0Pe pl tio Tim at -rvet Tim at -Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-28KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGYThis section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designedto expedite the movement of evacuating traffic.
The resources required to implement thisstrategy include:" Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of trafficguides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).
" Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. Thesedevices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic ControlDevices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of theU.S.D.O.T.
All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD,which is available on-line:
http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to theofficial PDF version." A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in aformat that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are:1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takesthem significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flowof other evacuees.
We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" toindicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.
There are alwayslegitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.
For example:" A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other familymembers prior to evacuating.
* An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.
* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.
The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of soundjudgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process:1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their emergency plansserve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.
: 2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through7-6).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections thatexperience pronounced congestion.
Any critical intersections that would benefitfrom traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existingoffsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs.Clinton Power Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed inAppendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a morepronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs andACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in closeproximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the powerplant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.
The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7.3 (see Figures 7-3 through 7-6) indicate minimalcongestion within the EPZ. As such, no additional TCPs or ACPs are identified as a result of thisstudy. The existing traffic management plans are adequate.
The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower andequipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process.
Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.
DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZto warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away fromthe power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information toevacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems.
Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.
Internet websites canprovide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while onboard navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provideinformation en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit theevacuation process.
Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation
: process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in theoffsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.
Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should bereviewed during emergency response training.
The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted anddiverted after 2 hours have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation areassumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules andoperations.
Clinton Power Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 10 EVACUATION ROUTESEvacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:
* Routing from a Sub-area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region andthence out of the EPZ." Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of theplant, to the extent practicable.
The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so asto balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.
See Appendices B through D for further discussion.
The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to General Reception Centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points wherethese routes cross the EPZ boundary.
Note the General Reception Centers also serve ascongregate care centers and designated shelters according to the state emergency plan.Figure 10-1 presents an overview of the General Reception Centers servicing the EPZ. The majorevacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will also be taken to the General Reception Centers andsubsequently picked up by parents or guardians.
Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest General Reception Center depending on which Sub-area they reside in.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate10-1KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Denersa zHoIrlon Field House (ada--, ----------
-----. .Wtr----+-< BI ingtonn_ Cty- EllottEllsworth Arrowsmith 66- j~ axtStanford Ii Sa-brook I~ ~ow s -NBelt flower Fooslen -Mc an Fisher_1
...Atlan .. 0 4 -,a----- I* ',.re. ,u "m -+. .Wena ynesville h sbrBees~ ~ ~~SLra 8 u-ra4I RCSC olgL ,t,.We--l Land -I -e eIn 1Kennd' 'Sub-Iea:
6 -a W Zi ll- " Urb-na JosepSub-area:
"_nrnn -M n oSvoya* General Reception Center tv esdale Sub-are-
,e~p' e *-L e a t u r I,,-ara:Y
,.2, , 10, 15MIleRings Middll e School C-Shad,<ow Region Decaur,,.,
i, CO;SO7 ? < se,,,+- ,,= &deg; __ __ __ __ _ __ __ __ __ _ __ __ __ MieFigure 10-1. General Reception CentersClinton Power Station 10-2 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 IIKerins/O i-- _ _ I i L, o ..--I ... LkE .iro .T -/Sub-area:
7 ..!T ]IInSu b-a~rea:
76 Y-N *.EN I, CDN* Evauto Route B _N'df -..- -SuSub-rea:a I ~ ~ -,f Bil N. _ ~ II 10, ll MieRn -[KShadow Sub-area':
7 NON "NCNli 3 Sub-area:
2 A?-A Sub-arba:
3 fNCIEC4 -~ \~ .--CDECECCCN lEEDS IDDENO~l rd J .E~lEN~fl I L IS NP 2j"1ECEDNEO~5E
~ .It ~ CONONIIaCCECNNEN 1 MittC RNDlINOk CFCSJ _____ 0D&#xfd;re v u araMD CN CIECOI ' -~ CEC ad ERE) EEN d -J17Su-ra05 lE-1 CEENDEENCE
-- ----~LerHOoY--
J a[i Nb~S~AI .. .. -LegOSlO __10 I11MilesIFigure 10-2. Major Evacuation Routes10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate10-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.
There is also a needto clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.
Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, providefixed-point surveillance.
: 2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage ofthose highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter orfixed-wing
: aircraft, if available.
: 4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide directfield reports of road blockages.
These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ aswell as the area around its periphery.
It is the responsibility of the offsite responseorganizations to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from thefield and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. Thiscoverage should quickly identify and expedite the response to any blockage caused by adisabled vehicle.Tow VehiclesIn a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabledvehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience inother emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.
While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that towtrucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, theEPZ. These locations should be selected so that:" They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes." Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agenciesencourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.
Clinton Power Station 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIMEIt is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public iscomplying with the Advisory to Evacuate.
The state radiological emergency plan does notdiscuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.
Should procedures not already exist, thefollowing alternative or complementary approach is suggested.
The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The sizeof the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with theAdvisory to Evacuate.
It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size thatat least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.
On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated samplesize of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, which iswhen approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (seeFigure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips andthe local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete thetelephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set oftelephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of Sub-areas),
then theconfirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes.
Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared.
Of course, fewer people would beneeded for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modernautomated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 orequivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the timerequired to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintaina list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could bepurchased from vendors and could be periodically updated.
As indicated above, theconfirmation process should not begin until 2 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensurethat households have had enough time to mobilize.
This 2 hour timeframe will enabletelephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make thenecessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, thenthe telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation processis completed.
Other techniques could also be considered.
After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirmevacuation activities.
Clinton Power Station 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households thathave not evacuated.
 
==Reference:==
: Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971Given:* No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 5,800" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate
= 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q=1-p=0.75 A2pq + e 3n = -308e2Finite population correction:
nNnF -=293n+N-1 29Thus, approximately 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of thepopulation has not evacuated.
If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with theAdvisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 208.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone callsAssume:" Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):
30 seconds" Time for 6 rings (no answer):
36 seconds" Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:
60 sec." Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours:300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.63600Clinton Power Station 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 13 REFERENCES
: Agarwal, M. et. al. Proceedings of the 2005 Mid-Continent Transportation ResearchSymposium, "Impacts of Weather on Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Characteristics and FacilityCapacity,"
August 2005. (Agarwal, 2005).Exelon. EP-AA-1003, Revision 23, "Exelon Nuclear Radiological Emergency Plan Annex forClinton Station,"
June 2013. (Exelon, 2013).Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA),Washington, D.C., 2013. (HPMS, 2013).Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto.
"The Mississauga Evacuation Final Report,"
June 1981. (IES, 1981).Lieberman, E. Publication Transportation Research Record 772, "Determining LateralDeployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection,"
1980. (Lieberman, 1980).Lieberman, E., Xin, W. "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling For Large-Scale Evacuation Planning",
presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 2012. (Lieberman, 2012).McShane, W. & Lieberman, E. "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of anApproach,"
Publication Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. (McShane, 1980).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980. (NRC, 1980a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4873, PNL-6171, "Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4874, PNL-6172, "The Sensitivity ofEvacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code,"1988. (NRC, 1988b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria forPreparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness inSupport of Nuclear Power Plants,"
November 1980. (NRC, 1980b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development ofEvacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants,"
January 2005. (NRC, 2005).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria forDevelopment of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies,"
November 2011. (NRC, 2011a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E toPart 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, 2011.(NRC, 2011b).State of Illinois, "Illinois Plan For Radiological Accidents (IPRA) Clinton -Volume VIII," March2013. (IPRA, 2013).Clinton Power Station 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Transportation Research Board (TRB). "Highway Capacity Manual."
National Research Council,Washington, DC, 2010. (TRB, 2010).Zhang, L. and Levinson, D. "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks,"
Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004. (Zhang, 2004).13-2 KLD Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time Estimate13-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX AGlossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMSTable A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering TermsTerm DefiniioAnalysis NetworkLinkMeasures of Effectiveness NodeOriginPrevailing Roadway andTraffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physicalroadway system, which is comprised of directional links andnodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section ofroadway.
A link has both physical (length, number of lanes,topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.
Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of networklinks. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation ofservice time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or ShadowRegion, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehiclesper hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel totheir respective destinations.
Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turnmaneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at theprevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) orvehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section ofroadway in one direction during a specified time period withoperating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The ServiceVolume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).
Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.
The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.
The interval duration isexpressed in seconds.
A signal phase is comprised of a sequenceof signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service RateService VolumeSignal Cycle LengthSignal IntervalClinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateA-1KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I~3 TemDfnto0 Signal PhaseTraffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic DensityTraffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic VolumeTravel ModeTrip Table or Origin-Destination MatrixTurning CapacityA set of signal indications (and intervals) which services aparticular combination of traffic movements on selectedapproaches to the intersection.
The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as tosatisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travelfrom a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination ofobjectives.
In general, the objective is stated in terms ofminimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may beexpressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway sectionof specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles permile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins.
The result often takes the form of a Trip Table,which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.
These statistics are calledMeasures of Effectiveness.
The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in onedirection, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.
Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and airtravel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the numberof trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified timeperiod, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of itsspecified destinations.
These values are expressed in vehicles perhour (vph) or in vehicles.
The capacity associated with that component of the traffic streamwhich executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at anintersection.
Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateA-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX BDTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODELThis section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model namedDTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use inanalyzing evacuation scenarios.
DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is oneof the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based DynamicTraffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" toroutes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.
To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacityinformation, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimaldynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost."Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment ModelThe underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled inan evacuation scenario.
That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential riskas rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations androutes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacueebehavior.
For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and bythe analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to accessmajor highways.
The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. Thisdetermination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of thenetwork (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes forthe conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRADThe DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a generaldirection away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed tosupport the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time fromone DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system,to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.
DTRAD computations areperformed on the "path" network:
DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Clinton Power Station B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.
The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II usingmacroscopic traffic simulation modeling.
Traffic assignment deals with computing thedistribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of theroute choice of the drivers.
Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the roadnetwork may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reducedroad capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.
To consider these timedependencies, DTA procedures are required.
The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using thespecification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routesthrough the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.
The modeling principles of DTRAD include:" It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but somealso select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose." The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choicemodeling".
Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of driversthat choose each route is computed.
The most prevalent model for discrete choicemodeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSLovercomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating anadditional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in therandom utility expression.
" DTRAD executes the traffic assignment algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysisnetwork.
This execution continues until a stable situation is reached:
the volumes andtravel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from oneiteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user." Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linearsummation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed asc, = ata+ +i8t, + vsa,wherecais the generalized cost for link a, and a,fl, andyare cost coefficients for linktravel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.
Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is adynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.
The DYNEV simulation modelClinton Power Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information toconstantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the nextsimulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.
Thisway, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.
The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation modelsis depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session(TA session).
A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in thefigure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of theexponential distribution).
The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD torepresent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:Sa=- 13 In (p), 0 _< p < I; 13 >0d,pdodn= Distance of node, n, from the plantdo =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk13 = Scaling factorThe value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the Shadow Region. Note that thesupplemental cost, sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) thepower plant.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateB-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a waythat no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish DriverEquilibrium".
It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]
condition that evolves over time asdrivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs".
It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realizedby most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,commuters).
Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus,the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD wasnot designed as an equilibrium
: solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast orobserved) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateB-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Start of next DTRAD SessionSet To = Clock time.Archive System State at ToIDefine latest Link TurnPercentages I-BExecute Simulation Model fromtime, To to T1(burn time)IProvide DTRAD with link MOE attime, T1IExecute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at ToApply new Link Turn PercentsDTRAD iteration converges?
No YesNext iteration Simulate from To to T2(DTA session duration)
Set Clock to T7aFigure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateB-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX CDYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODELThe DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations oftraffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:
: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density,queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation timestep). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces themonto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization timedistributions.
The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over timeuntil the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include:" Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step forthe purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.
* Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used toestimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turnmovement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model." At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:
queuedand moving vehicles.
The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.
Vehiclespillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered andquantified.
The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within eachtime step of the simulation.
There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.* Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parkingfacilities that are not explicitly represented.
This flow represents the evacuating tripsthat are generated at the source.* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacityis monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.
If theavailable storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then thesimulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstreamfeeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.
* A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each networklink is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model." A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data thattranslates into link turn percentages.
" Provides MOE to animation
: software, EVAN" Calculates ETE statistics Clinton Power Station C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.
Table C-2 outlines the necessary input dataelements.
To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highwayenvironment is represented as a network.
The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:
rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.
The nodes of the networkgenerally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes(e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-i is an example of a small network representation.
The freeway is defined by thesequence of links, (20,21),
(21,22),
and (22,23).
Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exitlinks, respectively.
An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed withina grid network.
Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.
Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV IIMeasureUnitsAppie ToVehicles Discharged VehiclesLink, Network, Exit LinkSpeed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, NetworkDensity Vehicles/Mile/Lane LinkLevel of Service LOS LinkContent Vehicles NetworkTravel Time Vehicle-hours NetworkEvacuated Vehicles Vehicles
: Network, Exit LinkTrip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip NetworkCapacity Utilization Percent Exit LinkAttraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit LinkMax Queue Vehicles Node, ApproachTime of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, ApproachRoute Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel RouteTime (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Networkc-2 KLD Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateC-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II ModelHIGHWAY NETWORK* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths* Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization
" Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)* Destination (exit) nodes" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)" Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES0 On all entry links and source nodes (origins),
by Time PeriodTRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS
" Traffic signals:
link-specific, turn movement specific* Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs" Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)" Route diversion specifications
" Turn restrictions
" Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)
DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
* Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:
free-flow speed, discharge headway* Bus route designation.
DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)
" Duration of DTA sessions" Duration of simulation "burn time"" Desired number of destination nodes per originINCIDENTS
" Identify and Schedule of closed lanes* Identify and Schedule of closed linksClinton Power Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry, Exit Nodes arenumbered 8xxxFigure C-1. Representative Analysis NetworkClinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateC-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental DiagramIt is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.
Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flowconditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. Thisrepresentation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and thena linear reduction in speed in the range, kf _< k _< kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.
In theflow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k _< ks = 95 vpmwhich roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.
The value of flowrate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical
: density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, k*. Then, v, -Qma, kf = kc -kc '(vfvc) k"C Setting k = k-k, thenQ=RQ.ax RQmax k2 for 0 < k < ks = 50 .it can beQmax 8333shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for ks -<k k- kp where ks = 50 and W = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation ModelThe simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".
Each unit problem computes themovement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval(TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of theunit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced inthe following description of the unit problem procedure.
Clinton Power Station c-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vphDropR-- QsVfR vcr iow,,Keginies; Free: Forced:! !-- -- --- ---Density, vpm-p Density, vpmkfkcFigure C-2. Fundamental DiagramsDistancejkOQ OM OEQbLMbQeMeY DownUp-* TimeEl E2TIFigure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateC-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. GlossaryThe maximum number of vehicles, of a particular
: movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.
E The number of vehicles, of a particular
: movement, that enter the link over thetime interval.
The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turnmovement on a link.h The mean queue discharge
: headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on alink.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , Le The queue length in feet of a particular
: movement, at the [beginning, end] of atime interval.
The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service aparticular movement on a link.L, The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):
1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular
: movement, that areMb , Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.
These vehicles are assumedto be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from alink over a time interval.
The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged OQOM,0E, from a link within a time interval:
vehicles that were Queued at the beginning ofthe TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link thatexecutes a particular turn movement, x.Clinton Power Station C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at theQb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.
The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movementQmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate oflink capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lowercapacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCapThe remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movementafter that queue has been completely
: serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.
Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first tj secondsof a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.
TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), ofmoving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link withinthe TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the linklength which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateC-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unitproblem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement servicedon each link that comprises the evacuation
: network, and for each TI over the duration of theevacuation.
Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro, L, E,Compute = O,Qe,MeDefine O=OQ+OM+OE
; E=E1+E21. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, k0 , the R -factor,R0 and entering
: traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = i Pi Oi + S where Pi , Oi are therelevant turn percentages from feeder link, i , and its total outflow (possibly metered) overthis TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration
: counter, n = 0, k = ko , and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k _ 130 using the analytical representations of thefundamental diagram.Qmax (TI)Calculate Cap = 3600 (G/C) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduceddue to meteringSetR= 1.0if G/C<1 orifk:kc; Set R= 0.9onlyifG/c=1 and k>k,Calculate queue length, Lb = QbLtN3. Calculate tj =TI-_ L If t1-<0, sett1=E1=OE=0 ; Else, E1=E-v T"4. Then E2=E-El ; t2=TI-t15. If Qb > Cap, thenOQ = CapOM = OE = 0If tj > 0,thenQe = Qb + Mb + E1 -CapElseQe = Qb -CapEnd ifCalculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb <Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap- OQ7. If Mb _ RCap,then Clinton Power Station C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 8. If t1 > 0, 0M = Mb, OE = min(RCap
-Mb, t ICaP > 0Q'e =E1 -OIf Q'e > 0,thenCalculate Qe, Me with Algorithm AElseQe= 0, Me = E2End ifElse (t, = 0)0M (v-T--Lb Mb and OE = 0Me Mb-OM-I-E; Qe =0End if9. Else (Mb > RCap)OE= 0If tl > 0, thenOM=RCap, Q'e=Mb-OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A10. Else (t, = 0)[(v(TI)-Lb Mb]Md K--\ L_---b ) MbIIf Md > RCap, then0M = RCapQ/e = Md -OMApply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and MeElseOM = MdMe= Mb-OM+E and QeO=End ifEnd ifEnd ifEnd if11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kRn = [kb + 2 km + kel,where kb = density at the beginning of the TIke = density at the end of the TIkm = density at the mid-point of the TIAll values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.
if Ikn -kn-1I > E and n < Nwhere N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, thenClinton Power Station C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn *End ifComputation of unit problem is now complete.
Check for excessive inflow causingspillback.
: 13. If Q, + Me > (L-W) LN, thenLvThe number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W) LNLvwhere W is the width of the upstream intersection.
To prevent spillback, meter theoutflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by theamount, SB. That is, setSBM = 1 -> 0 ,where M is the metering factor (over all movements).
This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to beapplied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm AThis analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles canjoin a standing or discharging queue. For the caseQb QXe shown, Qb < Cap, with t, > 0 and a queue ofQe length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and Ethat reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but couldv/ + not discharge due to inadequate capacity.
That is,Mb Qb + Mb + E1 > Cap. This queue length,v L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qeby traffic entering the approach during the currentt3 TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of theti _J queue within the TI. A portion of the enteringTI vhices, 3 = t3Tvehicles, E3 = E will likely join the queue. Thisanalysis calculates t3 ,Qe and Me for the inputvalues of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe *When t1 > 0 and Qb -- Cap:Lv LvDefine: L'e = Q'e .From the sketch, L3 = v(TI-t -t3) = L -(Qe + E3) L ve LN e LNSubstituting E3 = L3 E yields: -Vt3 + T E L = L -v(TI -t1) -U, .Recognizing thatTI TI LNthe first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t3 to obtain:Clinton Power Station C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 t3 [E L ]L suchthat 0 __t3 __TI-tjIf the denominator,
[v --<jv-]  0, set t3 = TI -tj.Then, Qe=Q'e+Ee
+ --! Me=E 1 -tl +t3The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes itsinclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary tocalculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement,
: x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, thenthe problem is fully defined.
If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then ananalysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movementspecific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as FigureC-4. As discussed
: earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each linkindependently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first stepis to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed sothat as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within thesame network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible toguarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.
Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over allnetwork links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entirenetwork.
Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in thecontext of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link suchthat they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outboundlinks. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.
Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, ifClinton Power Station c-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timingneeded to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has thecapability of representing, with macroscopic
: fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.
The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at theend of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:
Qe and Me. Theprocedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).
After all network links areprocessed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.
The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during thefollowing sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" forall network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweepsin the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback.
(The initial sweep over each linkuses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI,the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turnmovement for output purposes.
It then prepares for the following time interval by defining thevalues of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the endof the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time untilthe end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification ofnetwork links.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateC-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:
Table C-3)Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateC-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a generaldirection away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed toidentify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on theexpected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEVII system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";
each such sessioncomputes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,
[To , T2], specified by the analyst.
The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes fromeach origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize thenetwork-wide cost function.
The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turnpercentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing itwith operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in theDTRAD cost function.
These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time,T1--T2, which lies within the session duration,
[T0 ,T2] .This "burn time", T,1-0, isselected by the analyst.
For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the changein network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, thesimulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns tothe origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration attime, T2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until theend of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Clinton Power Station C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX DDetailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation TimeEstimates.
The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element inthe flow diagram.Step 1The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The basemap extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) fromthe power plant location.
The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitabletopographic background and the EPZ boundary.
Step 22010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used toestimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatialdistribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon, the offsite agencies andphone calls to individual facilities.
Step 3Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each sectionof roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic atintersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings forpre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.
Step 4The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon toidentify household
: dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.
This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by eachhousehold, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Step 5A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysisnetwork, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Oncethe geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and otherlink-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.
Traffic signal timingswere input accordingly.
The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Clinton Power Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6The EPZ is subdivided into 8 Sub-areas.
Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal andweather-related conditions.
Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week,time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 7The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment anddistribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.
Step 8After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.
DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check thecompleteness and consistency of the input data specified.
The analyst reviews all warning anderror messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an inputstream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radialevacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/orreplace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional
: judgment, after studying thetopology of the analysis highway network.
The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.
Theexamination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software whichoperates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. Thisis a labor-intensive
: activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possessthe necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of anyproblems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of thiscongestion.
This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of tripgeneration, improper
: routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way thephysical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of twoconclusions:
" The results are satisfactory; or" The input stream must be modified accordingly.
Clinton Power Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 This decision
: requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience basedupon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the resultsof the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results aresatisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.
Thesetreatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can producesignificant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections soas to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specifictreatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along majorroadway systems.
Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation ofevacuation behavior.
Step 11As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect themodifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns toStep 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.
Step 12Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.
Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transitvehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transitdependent and special facility population groups.Step 13The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.
This process was automated through the UNITES userinterface.
For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce acustomized case-specific data set.Step 14All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results areavailable, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamicrouting is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.
Step 15Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and specialfacility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent Clinton Power Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 residents,
: schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.
Step 16The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed.documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.
The results were thenStep 17Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see AppendixN) was completed.
An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided inthe checklist.
D-4 KLD Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateD-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 14, Step 14Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to ComputeETE for Transit and Special Facility RoutesFigure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateD-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX ESpecial Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATAThe following tables list population information, as of March 2014, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the CLN EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, preschools/daycares, day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities.
Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodgingfacilities.
Note vehicles (cars with boat trailers and RVs) that were discussed in Section 3 asbeing represented as 2 vehicles are represented as 1 vehicle in this appendix.
Employment datais included in the table for major employers.
Each table is grouped by county. The location ofthe facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) fromthe center point of the plant. Maps of schools, preschools/daycares, day camps, medicalfacilities, major employers, recreational areas, lodging facilities, and correctional facilities arealso provided.
E-1 KID Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-1KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ7 7.2 WSW Clinton Christian Academy 801 South Mulberry Street Clinton 29 77 7.8 WSW Clinton Junior High School 701 Illini Drive Clinton 449 567 7.8 WSW Clinton Senior High School 1200 IL-54 Clinton 582 737 6.3 WSW Douglas Elementary School 905 East Main Street Clinton 191 247 7.0 WSW Lincoln Elementary School 407 South Jackson Street Clinton 316 407 7.1 W Washington Elementary School 411 North Mulberry Street Clinton 183 237 6.4 W Webster Elementary School 612 North George Street Clinton 325 404 8.3 ESE DeLand-Weldon Elementary School 304 IL-10 DeLand 26 3Table E-2. Preschools
/ Daycares within the EPZ7 7.2 WSW Christ Lutheran Pre-School 701 South Mulberry Street Clinton 20 57 5.8 WSW Head Start- 1700 East Main Street Clinton 30 7E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-3. Day Camps within the EPZ6 1 10.5 I WSW I Little Galilee Christian Assembly Church Camp I 7539 Little Galilee Road IClintonI 120 II ITable E-4. Medical Facilities within the EPZ7 5.8 WSW Allen Court (E. Main Street) 1650 East Main Street Clinton 8 8 5 3 0Allen Court (N. Alexander 302 North Alexander 7 6.4 Street) Street Clinton 8 8 8 0 07 7.1 WSW Dr. John Warner Hospital 422 West White Street Clinton 25 6 2 4 07 7.6 WSW Hawthorne Inn 1 Park Lane West Clinton 27 26 24 2 07 7.6 WSW Manor Court 1 Park Lane West Clinton 131 120 30 90 0Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.E-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-5. Major Employers within the EPZ1 0.0 N Clinton Power Station 8401 Power Road Clinton 608 30.5% 1851 5.1 NW Syngenta Seeds 12101 Thorps Road Clinton 50 30.5% 167 6.3 WSW Action Technology Co. 1060 IL-10 Clinton 70 30.5% 227 6.8 W Altorfer Inc. 9670 Tabor Road Clinton 50 30.5% 167 7.4 WSW Baum Auto 810 IL-54 Clinton 40 30.5% 137 7.8 WSW Clinton Junior High School 701 Illini Drive Clinton 56 30.5% 187 7.8 WSW Clinton Senior High School 1200 IL-54 Clinton 73 30.5% 237 7.1 WSW Dr. John Warner Hospital 422 West White Street Clinton 100 30.5% 317 6.1 WSW Human Resource Center East 10840 IL-10 Clinton 80 30.5% 257 6.7 WSW Marco NPK 201 East Benton Clinton 12 50.0%1 67 6.3 WSW McElroy Metal Mill Inc. 10490 IL-10 Clinton 35 30.5% 117 7.5 WSW Miller Container Corp. 10670 IL-10 Clinton 50 30.5% 167 6.5 WSW RR Donnelley 900 South Cain Street Clinton 80 30.5% 257 r fnl 'Zt.rir,,,rI r21 AI\l ,lnn rnrinrn XQ4 CO r tnn I A ) _o211According to data received from phone call to facility.
E-4 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-6. Recreational Areas within the EPZ11.9wClinton Lake State Recreation Area -Camp QuestIL-54Clinton75331 3.1 S Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Lane Day Use SR-10 Clinton 16 71 2.5 ESE Clinton Lake State Recreation Area (Mascoutin) 7251 Ranger Road DeWitt 1,5971 1.2 NNW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Boat Access Northfork Road Clinton 87 3931 3.6 N Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Canoe Access 16958 Swisher Hill Road Clinton 15 71 2.9 SSW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Peninsula Day Use Overlook Point Road Clinton 49 221 3.7 SW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Spillway Access 13625 IL-10 Clinton 103 461 4.5 E Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Weldon Boat Access 885 Road North Weldon 143 6441 4.6 E Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Weldon Day Use 885 Road North Weldon 65 291 2.8 SW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Boat Access CR 670 N Clinton 63 28s1 2.7 WSW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Day Use Boat Ramp Rd Clinton 92 411 3.2 SSW Green Acres Campground 15283 IL-10 Clinton 150 681 3.2 SSW South Shores Campground 15487 IL-la Clinton 63 281 0.7 NW Visitor Center -IL Dept. of Natural Resources IL-54 Clinton 150 683 6.2 ENE Clinton Lake Stata Recreation Area -Parnell Boat Access CR 2225 E Clinton 67 3066 6.6 SW Arrowhead Acres 3315 Weldon Springs Road Clinton 300 1356 8.4 SW Clinton Country Club Texas Church Road Clinton 90 4166.0SWWeldon Springs State Park14734 Weldon Springs RoadClinton42018872 Vehicle breakdown:
380 passenger
: vehicles, 276 recreational
: vehicles, 60 vehicles with trailers, counted as 1,052 vehicles in simulation 3 Vehicle breakdown:38 passenger vehicles and 24 vehicles with trailers, counted as 63 vehicles in simulation 4 Vehicle breakdown:
64 vehicles with trailers, counted as 128 vehicles in simulation 5 Vehicle breakdown:
28 vehicles with trailers, counted as 56 vehicles in simulation 6Vehicle breakdown:
30 vehicles with trailers, counted as 60 vehicles in simulation 7 Vehicle breakdown:
140 passenger
: vehicles, 48 recreational
: vehicles, counted as 236 vehicles in simulation Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-7. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ7 7.9 WSW Sunset Inn 11251 Kleeman Road Clinton I 91 467 7.6 WSW Town & Country Motel 1151 IL-54 Clinton 31 16Table E-8. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ7 1 V, I IAI I fl-~,if+
r--f-, I&#xfd;iI I IMl %A/-,+ XAI-k---
C+.,--+ I Cri.,4,--
I Oc IOnE-6 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-1. Schools within the CLN EPZClinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.E-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-2. Preschools
/ Daycares within the CLN EPZE-8 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-3. Day Camps within the CLN EPZE-9 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-4. Medical Facilities within the CLN EPZE-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-5. Major Employers within the CLN EPZClinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Clinton PowerEvacuation TimrLe..M p FMacIIty NaieSLe RI M .Arrowhead Acresr..J /. Y_ 2 Clinton Country Club3 Clinton Lake Marina4 Clinton Lake Stata Recreation Area -Parnell Boat Access5 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Camp Quest6_-_ 6 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Lane Day Use___Sub-area:
2 ------- 7 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Boat Access8 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Canoe AccessClinton Lake State Recreation Area -Peninsula Day UseSub-area:
8 10 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -SpillwayAccess 1 1 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area Weldon Boat Access1 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Weldon Day UseClinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Boat AccessB 14 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Day Use/ 15 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area (Mascoutln)
Sub-a -3 17 South Shores Campground Sub-area:
18 Visitor Center -IL Dept. ofNat. Resources Sub-area:
7 \_I 8*~ 4i!I/ Weldn 12P end2064 -139 uSub-aria:/
4='ItQ LegendSub-area:
6P40 CLN/
[,Sub-area:
5 GolfDe ..........
....................
/Marina /Boat Access tMnnt~elloMile Rings 2, 5, 10010Mienea, ~Argenta Miles__________________
$LOnef. __ ,,n.. 44Stationne EstimateFigure E-6. Recreational Areas within the CLN EPZE-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0Clinton Power *Evacuation Tim Figure E-7. Lodging Facilities within the CLN EPZE-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-8. Correctional Facilities within the CLN EPZE-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX FTelephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEYF.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the CLN EPZ requires the identification oftravel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has severallimitations when applied to emergency planning.
First, the Census data do not encompass therange of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data donot contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently maynot accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.
These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample ofthe EPZ population.
The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of thesurvey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and otherquestions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar
("How long does it take youto ...?")Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A sample size of 373completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
The preliminary determination of whether a household was located inside the EPZ was basedon "land-line" telephone listings with street addresses.
Telephone surveys were thenconducted using those numbers, selected in random order, until the target level of surveys wascompleted, or the entire calling list was exhausted.
Rejections or households outside the EPZwere discarded.
Numbers with "no answer" were re-cycled for up to ten attempts in different time windows.F.2 Survey ResultsThe results of the survey fall into two categories.
First, the household demographics of the areacan be identified.
Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.
The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results.
These data are processed todevelop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed inSection 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.
It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type toaccept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or whorefuses to answer a few questions.
To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is thesame as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.
In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.
Clinton Nuclear Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.2.1 Household Demographic ResultsHousehold SizeFigure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.23 people.-Household Size030050%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%5% E2 4 5 6+123People456+Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZAutomobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 1.89. 5.4% ofhouseholds do not have a vehicle available, as shown in Figure F-2.Vehicle Availability I4AM00304-4.50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%I012Vehicles345+Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuters Figure F-3 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 0.88 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 53% ofhouseholds have at least one commuter.
Commuters Per Household fA-u0LA0'0U50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%012Commuters 344Figure F-3. Commuters in Households in the EPZF-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.2 Evacuation ResponseQuestions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.
These are nowdiscussed:
"How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when allhousehold members were at home??" The response is shown in Figure F-4. On average,evacuating households would use 1.25 vehicles.
Evacuating Vehicles Per Household IA03090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%12Vehicles34Figure F-4. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation notice were given while [the primary commuter]
was at work, do you thinkthey would most likely..."
The response is shown in Figure F-5. Of the survey participants whoresponded, 31 percent indicated they would evacuate from work, 51 percent said they wouldreturn home first and then evacuate, and 18 percent indicated that they would stay outside theevacuation zone where they work.Commuter Evacuation Response60%_A 50%0w 40%0" 30% -0' 20%0. 1fl04i10%Evacuate from Work Return Home Stay outside Evacuation ZoneFigure F-5. Commuter Evacuation ResponseClinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.3 Time Distribution ResultsThe survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.
These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course oftheir day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysisdescribed in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.
"How long do you think it would take [the primary commuter]
to get prepared and actuallyleave work?" Figure F-6 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity iscompleted within 75 minutes.
94 percent can leave within 30 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work4.E-EE0100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75Preparation Time (min)Figure F-6. Time Required to Prepare to Leave WorkClinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "About how long does it take [the primary commuter]
to getfrom work to home?" Figure F-7presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. Approximately 88 percent of commuters can arrive home within 30 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.Work to Home TravelEE00100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75Travel Time (min)Figure F-7. Work to Home Travel TimeClinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, atnight or on a weekend),
approximately how long would it take your household to prepare todepart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days."Figure F-8 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In manyways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away fromhome. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similaractivities.
Approximately 78 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 40minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 80 minutes.Preparation Time with Everyone Home100%VA0380%60%40%20%0%030 60 90Preparation Time (min)120Figure F-8. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation The survey conducted in support of this study did not ask residents how long it would takethem to remove snow from their driveway if there were snow on the ground when anevacuation was ordered.
As discussed in Section 5.3, the response to the snow removalquestion in a survey conducted in 2012 in support of ETE development for the Duane ArnoldEnergy Center (DAEC) is adapted for this study. DAEC is located in Iowa, approximately 200miles northwest of CLN. Average snowfall in Cedar Rapids, Iowa (within the DAEC EPZ) is about35% higher than in cities within the CLN EPZ. It is conservatively assumed that snow removaltime in the CLN EPZ is comparable to snow removal time in the DAEC EPZ.Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.F-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?"
Duringadverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads andhighways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities),
it may benecessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can accessthe street. Figure F-9 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from adriveway.
The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 96 percent ofdriveways are passable within 60 minutes.
The last driveway is cleared two hours after thestart of this activity.
Note that those respondents (46%) who answered that they would nottake time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of thisactivity.
Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadwayand begin their evacuation trip.Time to Remove Snow from DrivewayIA0040100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60Time (min)75 90 105 120Figure F-9. Time to Clear Driveway of 6V-8" of SnowF.3 Conclusions The telephone survey provides
: valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time"which can influence evacuation time estimates.
Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ATTACHMENT ATelephone Survey Instrument Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-CnKLD Engineering, P.C.Rpv. 0 Telephone Survey Instrument Exelon SurveyFinal v6 -August 23, 2011INTRODUCTION Hello, my name is and I am calling fiom MDC Research, a public opinion firm. We areconducting a brief survey to gather information from households in your area about emergency response
: planning, and we'd like to include your opinions.
This survey is being conducted onbehalf of the (insert facility name) Nuclear Facility, and will take approximately 5 minutes tocomplete.
We are not trying to sell you anything.
The information gathered from this survey willhelp local agencies more effectively provide community assistance should an emergency situation arise.Can I please speak with an adult member of the household?
SCREENERS 1. What is the zip code of your primary residence?
This is the home where you live themajority of the time. DO NOT READ ZIP CODE LISTList of appropriate zip codes will be displayed here99999 Location outside the EPZ -THANK & TERMINATE S2. Which of the following categories best describes your age?11 Under 18 yrs of age -ASK FOR REFERRAL or THANK & TERMINATE 12 18 to 2413 25 to 3414 35 to 4415 45 to 5416 55 to 6417 65 to 7418 75 or older98 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQUESTIONNAIRE Q I How many people currently reside in your household?
Record: # of residents 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q2 How many motor vehicles are normally based at your home?Record: # of vehicles997 None -SKIP TO Q14998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedClinton Nuclear Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q3 How many members of your household are over the age of 16?Record: # of residents 998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ4 How many members of your household are licensed drivers?Record: # of drivers998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ5 How many of the adults in your household work outside the home?Record D Skip to Q6A997 None -Continue to Q5A998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedIf refused, explain; The nature of this project is to estimate traffic volumes andflow in the event of an emergency evacuation, so this data is necessary in orderfor us to continue with the survey.If still refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q5A (ONLY ASK IF Q5=997) Which of the following best describes the non-working adultsin your household?
MULTIPLE MENTION -IP NOTE: No more mentions than Q3mentions.
11 Currently unemployed/actively looking for work12 Retired13 On Disability or leave of absence14 Student/continuing education 15 Homemaker 99 Other -please specifySKIP TO Q1lRepeat the following Q6A-F sequence for each working adult cited in Q5For each of the working adults you just referenced, I'd like to ask a few questions related to whattheir likely actions would be in the case of an emergency evacuation.
I understand that I will beasking you to speculate on what other members of the household may do in this situation, butyour best guesses are just fine for our purposes.
Q6A Who is the first working adult in the household that you are thinking about? What is theirrelationship to you?I Self2 Spouse or significant other3 Parent of child4 Other relative or in-law5 Roommate6 Boarder7 OtherClinton Nuclear Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q6B Which of the following best describes this person's usual work schedule?
1 Monday -Friday, 8:00am to 5:00pm2 Swing Shift3 Graveyard 4 Evenings and weekends5 Rotating shifts6 Other or irregular schedule7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ6C Does this person generally use a personal vehicle to commute back and forth to work?1 Yes2 No7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ6D If an evacuation notice were given while this person was at work, do you think theywould most likely...
I Evacuate directly from work2 Come home first and then evacuate, or3 Stay outside the evacuation zone where they work E Skip to Q77 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ6E How long do you think it would take this person to get prepared and actually leave work?(Read list if necessary)
I Less than 15 minutes2 15 to 30 minutes3 30 to 45 minutes4 45 to 60 minutes5 More than 60 minutes7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowIf response at 6D is 1, skip from here to Q7Q6F About how long does it take this household member to get from work to home?(Read list if necessary) 1 Less than 15 minutes2 15 to 30 minutes3 30 to 45 minutes4 45 to 60 minutes5 More than 60 minutes7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ7A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #2Q8A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #3Q9A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #4Clinton Nuclear Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q10 And once everyone who is coming home from work has arrived, how long would it taketo prepare and depart from home, taking into consideration whether or not someone else isusually home who may be starting these preparation while they are travelling?
1 Less than 15 minutes2 15 to 30 minutes3 30 to 45 minutes4 45 to 60 minutes5 More than 60 minutes7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ 11 Are any of the licensed drivers in your household restricted to daytime driving only?1 Yes2 No9 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ12 If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example,at night or on a weekend),
approximately how long would it take your household toprepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your homefor 3 days. Would you say that it would take... READ LISTI Less than 20 minutes to depart2 20 to 40 minutes to depart3 40 to 60 minutes to depart4 60 to 90 minutes to depart; or5 More than 90 minutes to departQ 13 How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when allhousehold members were at home?Record: # of vehicles998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ14 Are any members of your household seasonal residents?
And by seasonal we mean anypeople who do not reside in your home the majority of the year.1 Yes2 No -SKIP TO Q159 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ14A (ASK IF Q14=1) How many of your <insert QI response>
household members areseasonal?
Record: # of seasonal household members998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ14B (ASK IF Q14=-1) What seasons do they live in another location away from your home?READ LIST -Multiple Mention1 Spring2 Summer3 FallClinton Nuclear Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4 WinterQ 15 Would any member of your household require a specialized
: vehicle, such as awheelchair, van or ambulance, to evacuate from your home in case of an emergency?
1 Yes2 No9 (DO NOT READ) RefusedThis is all the questions we have for you today/tonight.
Thank you for participating in thissurvey. Your responses will help us to make an accurate prediction of traffic conditions duringan emergency situation.
If you have any questions about this survey, please feel free to contact<insert contact name, job title, and phone number/email>.
Clinton Nuclear StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX GTraffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLANNUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agenciesshould be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.
The traffic and access control plans forthe EPZ were provided by the Illinois Emergency Management Agency.These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly.
G.1 Traffic Control PointsAs discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) aremodeled as actuated signals.
If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, andthe intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to anactuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node numberfor those nodes which are controlled.
If the existing control was changed due to the point beinga TCP, the control type is indicated as "TCP -Actuated" or "TCP -Uncontrolled" in Table K-2.The TCPs and ACPs within the study area are mapped in Figure G-1.As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as TCPs. Theexisting state traffic management plan is comprehensive and does not require revision.
G.2 Access Control PointsIt is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours of the advisory to evacuate todiscourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the study area.As discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on the major routes which traversethe study area 72 and 1-74 -in this study. The generation of the external trips ceases at 2hours after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation due to the ACPs.As shown in Figure G-1, the TCPs and ACPs identified in the state emergency plan areconcentrated along major evacuation routes and on roadways giving access to the EPZ. TheseTCPs and ACPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would directevacuees in the proper direction away from the plant and facilitate the flow of traffic throughthe intersections.
Detailed descriptions of each of the TCPs and ACPs and the actions to be taken by traffic guidesat these intersections are provided in the state plan. These actions were modeled explicitly inthe DYNEV II system. For additional information, refer to the state plan, Appendix B, the "Trafficand Access Control Guide."As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as ACPs. Theexisting state traffic management plan is comprehensive in terms of discouraging traffic fromentering the EPZ.Clinton Power Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
-1I =VQW&#xfd;--~ I41OJLt"r'1 0 cm f .T.3Sulb-area: 240-40 --NK---40 4-F ~-D ittCounb, w 114 'J" Ad2'-~14040 ~ r -030141.5,40 I/14188-154041 -70I-4ASub-area:
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Sl._41 -L9L 5E0.1.;41 0 -0~~44.01014d N-4 -..I I n n 17 I510 1MilesL5Figure G-1. Traffic and Access Control Points for the Clinton Power StationClinton Power StationEvacuation Time EstimateG-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0}}

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