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{{#Wiki_filter:4 th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 1 2/20/201 8 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 1 January 29
{{#Wiki_filter:4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop January 29-31, 2019 U.S. NRC Headquarters, Rockville, Maryland On January 29-31, 2019, the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 4th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI),
-31, 2019 U.S. NRC Headquarters, Rockville, Maryland On January 29
federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three-day workshop is open to the public at no charge.
-31, 2019, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 4th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three
AGENDA: TUESDAY, JANUARY 29, 2019 09:00 - 09:10    Welcome & Logistics Session 1A: Introduction Session Chair: TBD 09:10 - 09:25   Introduction                                                       1A-1 Raymond Furstenau*, Director, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 09:25 - 09:45   NRC Flooding Research Program Overview                             1A-2 Joseph Kanney*, Meredith Carr, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann & Jacob Philip, NRC/RES 09:45 - 10:05   EPRI Flooding Research Program Overview                           1A-3 Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 10:05 - 10:20   WGEV Flooding Overview                                             1A-4 John Nakoski*, NRC/RES 10:20 - 10:35   BREAK
-day workshop is open to the public at no charge.
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter 12/20/2018                      DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change.                    1
AGENDA: TUESDAY , JANUARY 29, 201 9 09:00 - 0 9: 1 0 Welcome & Logistics Session 1A: Introduction Session Chair:
TBD 0 9: 1 0 - 0 9: 25 Introduction 1A-1 Raymond Furstenau
*, Director, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 09:25 - 0 9:45 NRC Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-2 Joseph Kanney*, Meredith Carr, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann & Jacob Philip, NRC/RES 0 9: 45 - 10:05 EPRI Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-3 Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 10:05 - 10:20 WGEV Flooding Overview 1A-4 John Nakoski*, NRC/RES     10:20 - 10:35 BREAK
* denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter


4 th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 1 2/20/201 8 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 2  Session 1 B: Coastal Flooding Session Chair: TBD 10:35 - 11:05 KEYNOTE: NWS Storm Surge Ensemble Guidance 1B-1 Arthur Taylor
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 1B: Coastal Flooding Session Chair: TBD 10:35 - 11:05 KEYNOTE: NWS Storm Surge Ensemble Guidance                         1B-1 Arthur Taylor*, NWS 11:05 - 11:30 Quantification of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models 1B-2 Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, & Victor Gonzalez, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 11:30 - 11:55 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Using the Joint Probability 1B-3 Method for Hurricane Storm Surge Michael B. Salisbury^ (EPRI Contractor) 11:55 - 12:20 Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge 1B-4 Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach Bin Wang*, GZA 12:20 - 13:00 Coastal Flooding Panel                                             1B-5 13:00 - 14:00 LUNCH Session 1C: Precipitation Session Chair: TBD 14:00 - 14:30 KEYNOTE: Satellite Precipitation Estimates, GPM, and Extremes     1C-1 George J. Huffman*, NASA/GSFC 14:30 - 14:55 Planned Improvements for NOAA Atlas 14 Process and Products       1C-2 Sanja Perica*, Sandra Pavlovic, Michael St. Laurent, Carl Trypaluk, Dale Unruh, Orlan Wilhite, NOAA/NWS 14:55 - 15:20 Factors Affecting the Development of Precipitation Areal Reduction Factors Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott DeNeale, ORNL                         1C-3 15:20 - 15:35 BREAK 15:35 - 16:00 Current Capabilities for Developing Watershed Precipitation-       1C-4 Frequency Relationships and Storm-Related Inputs for Stochastic Flood Modeling for Use in Risk-Informed Decision-Making M.G. Schaefer*, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.
*, NWS 11:05 - 11:30 Quantification of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models 1B-2 Norberto C. Nadal
16:00 - 16:25 Current Use of Reanalysis in Flood Hazard Assessments             1C-5 Jason Caldwell *, Weather & Water, Inc.
-Caraballo*, & Victor Gonzalez, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 11:30 - 11: 5 5 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Using the Joint Probability Method for Hurricane Storm Surge 1B-3  Michael B.
16:25 - 17:05 Precipitation Panel Discussion                                     1C-6 17:05 - 17:20 Daily Wrap-up 12/20/2018                  DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change.                     2
Salisbury^ (EPRI Contractor) 11:5 5 - 1 2: 20 Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach 1B-4  Bin Wang*, GZA 12:20 - 13:00 Coastal Flooding Panel 1B-5   13:00 - 14:00 LUNCH   Session 1 C: Precipitation Session Chair: TBD 14:00 - 14:30 KEYNOTE: Satellite Precipitation Estimates, GPM, and Extremes 1C-1 George J. Huffma n*, NASA/GSFC 14:30 - 14:5 5 Planned Improvements for NOAA Atlas 14 Process and Products 1C-2 Sanja Perica
 
*, Sandra Pavlovic, Michael St. Laurent, Carl Trypaluk, Dale Unruh, Orlan Wilhite , NOAA/NWS 14:5 5 - 15:20 Factors Affecting the Development of Precipitation Areal Reduction Factors   Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott DeNeale, ORNL 1C-3   15:20 - 15:3 5 BREAK     15:3 5 - 16:00 Current Capabilities for Developing Watershed Precipitation
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop AGENDA:   WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 2 Welcome Session 2A: Riverine Flooding Session Chair: TBD 08:30 - 9:00 KEYNOTE: An Overview NOAAs National Water Model                       2A-1 Brian Cosgrove*1, David Gochis 2 , Thomas Graziano1, Ed Clark1, Trey Flowers1, Fred Ogden1; 1Office of Water Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA; 2Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR 09:00 - 09:25 Global Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Riverine Flood Modeling         2A-2 Vincent Rebour and Claire-Marie Duluc, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute 09:25 - 09:50 Practical Approaches to Probabilistic Flood Estimates: an Australian   2A-3 perspective Rory Nathan*, University of Melbourne 09:50 - 10:15 Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency and Extrapolations for Dams and           2A-4 Nuclear Facilities J. England*, USACE, Risk Management Center 10:15 - 10:35 BREAK 10:35 - 11:00 Riverine Paleoflood Analyses in Risk-Informed Decision Making:         2A-5 Improving Hydrologic Loading Input for USACE Dam Safety Evaluations Justin Pearce*, USACE, Risk Management Center; Keith Kelson, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise 11:00 - 11:25 Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi-Millennial Record of   2A-6 Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN Tess Harden*, Jim OConnor & Mackenzie Keith, U.S.
-Frequency Relationships and Storm
Geological Survey 11:25 - 12:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion 12:05 - 13:25 LUNCH 12/20/2018                  DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change.                         3
-Related Inputs for Stochastic Flood Modeling for Use in Risk
 
-Informed Decision
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 2B: Modeling Frameworks Session Chair: TBD 13:25 - 13:50 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding     2B-1 (SHAC-F) for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Rajiv Prasad* & Phillip Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting 13:50- 14:15   Overview of the TVA PFHA Calculation System                     2B-2 Shaun Carney*, RTI 14:15 - 14:40 Update on ANS-2.8: Probabilistic Evaluation of External Flood   2B-3 Hazards for Nuclear Facilities Tentative: Ray Schneider, Westinghouse                     2B-4 14:40 - 15:20 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion 15:20 - 15:35 Daily Wrap-up 15:35 - 16:50                     Session 2C: Poster Session 18:00                                   Group Dinner: TBD AGENDA: THURSDAY, JANUARY 31, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 3 Welcome Session 3A: Climate and Non-stationarity Session Chair: TBD 08:30 - 09:00 KEYNOTE: Hydroclimatic Extremes Trends and Projections: A View   3A-1 from the Fourth National Climate Assessment Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina State University 09:00 - 09:25 Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear 3A-2 Facilities L. Ruby Leung* & Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 09:25 - 09:50 Role of Climate Change/Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane 3A-3 Season Young-Kwon Lim*, GSFC/NASA 9:50 - 10:30 Climate Panel Discussion                                         3A-5 10:30 - 10:50 BREAK 12/20/2018                  DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change.                   4
-Making 1C-4  M.G. Schaefe r*, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.
 
16:00 - 16:2 5 Current Use of Reanalysis in Flood Hazard Assessments 1C-5 Jason Caldwell *
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 3B: Flood Protection and Plant Response Session Chair: TBD 10:50 - 11:15 Qualitative Risk Ranking Process of External Flood Penetration Seals 3B-1 Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 11:15- 11:40 Results of Performance of Flood-Rated Penetration Seals Tests       3B-2 William (Mark) Cummings^, Fisher Engineering, Inc. (formerly Fire Risk Management, Inc.)
, Weather & Water, Inc.
11:40- 1205  Modeling Overtopping Erosion Tests of Zoned Rockfill Embankments     3B-3 Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 12:05- 12:45 Flood Protection and Plant Response Panel Discussion                 3B-4 12:45 - 13:45 LUNCH Session 3C: Towards External Flooding PRA Session Chair: TBD 13:45 - 14:10 External Flooding PRA Walkdown Guidance                             3C-1 Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 14:10 - 14:35 Updates on the Revision and Expansion of the External Flooding PRA   3C-2 Standard Michelle(Shelby) Bensi*, University of Maryland 14:35 - 15:00 Tentative: External Flooding PRA Presentation                       3C-3 Invited Speaker 15:00 - 15:40 Towards External Flooding PRA Discussion Panel                       3C-4 15:40 - 16:00 Wrap-up Discussion 12/20/2018                  DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change.                        5}}
16:2 5 - 17:0 5 Precipitation Panel Discussion 1C-6   17:0 5 - 17:2 0 Daily Wrap
-up 4 th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop  1 2/20/201 8 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 3  AGENDA: WEDNESDAY , JANUARY 30, 2019 08: 20 - 08: 30 Day 2 Welcome Session 2A: Riverine Flooding Session Chair: TBD 08:30 - 9:00 KEYNOTE: An Overview NOAA's National Water Model 2A-1 Brian Cosgrove
*1 , David Gochis 2 , Thomas Graziano 1, Ed Clark 1, Trey Flowers 1, Fred Ogden 1; 1Office of Water Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA
; 2Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR 09:0 0 - 09: 25 Global Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Riverine Flood Modeling 2A-2 Vincent Rebour and Claire
-Marie Duluc
, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute 09: 25 - 09: 5 0 Practical Approaches to Probabilistic Flood Estimates: an Australian perspective 2A-3 Rory Nathan*, University of Melbourne 09: 5 0 - 10:15 Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency and Extrapolations for Dams and Nuclear Facilities 2A-4 J. England*, USACE, Risk Management Center 10:15 - 10:35 BREAK     10:3 5 - 11:00 Riverine Paleoflood Analyses in Risk
-Informed Decision Making: Improving Hydrologic Loading Input for USACE Dam Safety Evaluations 2A-5  Justin Pearce
*, USACE, Ri sk Management Cente r; Keith Kelson, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise 11:00 - 11:25 Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi
-Millennial Record of Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN 2A-6  Tess Harden*, Jim O'Connor & Mackenzie Keith , U.S. Geological Survey 11:25 - 12:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion 12:05 - 13: 25 LUNCH 4 th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop  1 2/20/201 8 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 4 Session 2B: Modeling Frameworks Session Chair: TBD 13:2 5 - 13:50 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding (SHAC-F) for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment 2B-1  Rajiv Prasad* & Phillip Meyer, Pacific Northwest Nationa l Laboratory; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting 13:50- 14:15 Overview of the TVA PFHA Calculation System 2B-2 Shaun Carney
*, RTI 14:1 5 - 14:40 Update on ANS
-2.8: Probabilistic Evaluation of External Flood Hazards for Nuclear Facilities 2B-3  Tentative: Ray Schneider, Westinghouse 2B-4 14:40 - 15:20 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion 15:20 - 15:35 Daily Wrap
-up       15: 35 - 16:50 Session 2C: Poster Session 18:00 Group Dinner: TBD AGENDA: THURSDAY , JANUARY 31 , 2019 08: 20 - 08:30 Day 3 Welcome Session 3A: Climate and Non-stationarity Session Chair: TBD 08:3 0 - 09:00 KEYNOTE: Hydroclimatic Extremes Trends and Projections: A View from the Fourth National Climate Assessment 3 A-1  Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina State University 09:0 0 - 09: 25 Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear Facilities 3A-2 L. Ruby Leung* & Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 09: 25 - 09: 5 0 Role of Climate Change/Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season 3 A-3 Young-Kwon Lim*, GSFC/NASA 9:50 - 10:30 Climate Panel Discussion 3A-5 10: 30 - 1 0: 50 BREAK 4 th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop  1 2/20/201 8 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 5 Session 3B: Flood Protection and Plant Response Session Chair: TBD 1 0: 50 - 11: 15 Qualitative Risk Ranking Process of External Flood Penetration Seals 3 B-1 Marko Randelovic
*, EPRI 11: 15- 1 1: 40 Results of Performance of Flood
-Rated Penetration Seals Tests 3 B-2 William (Mark) Cummings
^, Fisher Engineering, Inc. (formerly Fire Risk Management, Inc.)
1 1: 40- 12 05 Modeling Overtopping Erosion Tests of Zoned Rockfill Embankments 3B-3 Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 12: 05- 12:45 Flood Protection and Plant Response Panel Discussion 3B-4   12:45 - 13:45 LUNCH     Session 3C: Towards External Flooding PRA Session Chair: TBD 1 3: 45 - 14: 10 External Flooding PRA Walkdown Guidance 3 C-1 Marko Randelovic
*, EPRI 14: 10 - 1 4: 35 Updates on the Revision and Expansion of the External Flooding PRA Standard 3 C-2 Michelle(Shelby) Bensi*, University of Maryland 1 4: 35 - 15: 00 Tentative: External Flooding PRA Presentation 3C-3 Invited Speaker 15: 00 - 15:40 Towards External Flooding PRA Discussion Panel 3C-4   15:40 - 1 6: 00 Wrap-up Discussion}}

Revision as of 07:45, 20 October 2019

Draft Agenda for 4th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop
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4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop January 29-31, 2019 U.S. NRC Headquarters, Rockville, Maryland On January 29-31, 2019, the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 4th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI),

federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three-day workshop is open to the public at no charge.

AGENDA: TUESDAY, JANUARY 29, 2019 09:00 - 09:10 Welcome & Logistics Session 1A: Introduction Session Chair: TBD 09:10 - 09:25 Introduction 1A-1 Raymond Furstenau*, Director, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 09:25 - 09:45 NRC Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-2 Joseph Kanney*, Meredith Carr, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann & Jacob Philip, NRC/RES 09:45 - 10:05 EPRI Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-3 Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 10:05 - 10:20 WGEV Flooding Overview 1A-4 John Nakoski*, NRC/RES 10:20 - 10:35 BREAK

  • denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter 12/20/2018 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 1

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 1B: Coastal Flooding Session Chair: TBD 10:35 - 11:05 KEYNOTE: NWS Storm Surge Ensemble Guidance 1B-1 Arthur Taylor*, NWS 11:05 - 11:30 Quantification of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models 1B-2 Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, & Victor Gonzalez, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 11:30 - 11:55 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Using the Joint Probability 1B-3 Method for Hurricane Storm Surge Michael B. Salisbury^ (EPRI Contractor) 11:55 - 12:20 Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge 1B-4 Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach Bin Wang*, GZA 12:20 - 13:00 Coastal Flooding Panel 1B-5 13:00 - 14:00 LUNCH Session 1C: Precipitation Session Chair: TBD 14:00 - 14:30 KEYNOTE: Satellite Precipitation Estimates, GPM, and Extremes 1C-1 George J. Huffman*, NASA/GSFC 14:30 - 14:55 Planned Improvements for NOAA Atlas 14 Process and Products 1C-2 Sanja Perica*, Sandra Pavlovic, Michael St. Laurent, Carl Trypaluk, Dale Unruh, Orlan Wilhite, NOAA/NWS 14:55 - 15:20 Factors Affecting the Development of Precipitation Areal Reduction Factors Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott DeNeale, ORNL 1C-3 15:20 - 15:35 BREAK 15:35 - 16:00 Current Capabilities for Developing Watershed Precipitation- 1C-4 Frequency Relationships and Storm-Related Inputs for Stochastic Flood Modeling for Use in Risk-Informed Decision-Making M.G. Schaefer*, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.

16:00 - 16:25 Current Use of Reanalysis in Flood Hazard Assessments 1C-5 Jason Caldwell *, Weather & Water, Inc.

16:25 - 17:05 Precipitation Panel Discussion 1C-6 17:05 - 17:20 Daily Wrap-up 12/20/2018 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 2

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop AGENDA: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 2 Welcome Session 2A: Riverine Flooding Session Chair: TBD 08:30 - 9:00 KEYNOTE: An Overview NOAAs National Water Model 2A-1 Brian Cosgrove*1, David Gochis 2 , Thomas Graziano1, Ed Clark1, Trey Flowers1, Fred Ogden1; 1Office of Water Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA; 2Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR 09:00 - 09:25 Global Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Riverine Flood Modeling 2A-2 Vincent Rebour and Claire-Marie Duluc, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute 09:25 - 09:50 Practical Approaches to Probabilistic Flood Estimates: an Australian 2A-3 perspective Rory Nathan*, University of Melbourne 09:50 - 10:15 Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency and Extrapolations for Dams and 2A-4 Nuclear Facilities J. England*, USACE, Risk Management Center 10:15 - 10:35 BREAK 10:35 - 11:00 Riverine Paleoflood Analyses in Risk-Informed Decision Making: 2A-5 Improving Hydrologic Loading Input for USACE Dam Safety Evaluations Justin Pearce*, USACE, Risk Management Center; Keith Kelson, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise 11:00 - 11:25 Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi-Millennial Record of 2A-6 Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN Tess Harden*, Jim OConnor & Mackenzie Keith, U.S.

Geological Survey 11:25 - 12:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion 12:05 - 13:25 LUNCH 12/20/2018 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 3

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 2B: Modeling Frameworks Session Chair: TBD 13:25 - 13:50 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding 2B-1 (SHAC-F) for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Rajiv Prasad* & Phillip Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting 13:50- 14:15 Overview of the TVA PFHA Calculation System 2B-2 Shaun Carney*, RTI 14:15 - 14:40 Update on ANS-2.8: Probabilistic Evaluation of External Flood 2B-3 Hazards for Nuclear Facilities Tentative: Ray Schneider, Westinghouse 2B-4 14:40 - 15:20 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion 15:20 - 15:35 Daily Wrap-up 15:35 - 16:50 Session 2C: Poster Session 18:00 Group Dinner: TBD AGENDA: THURSDAY, JANUARY 31, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 3 Welcome Session 3A: Climate and Non-stationarity Session Chair: TBD 08:30 - 09:00 KEYNOTE: Hydroclimatic Extremes Trends and Projections: A View 3A-1 from the Fourth National Climate Assessment Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina State University 09:00 - 09:25 Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear 3A-2 Facilities L. Ruby Leung* & Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 09:25 - 09:50 Role of Climate Change/Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane 3A-3 Season Young-Kwon Lim*, GSFC/NASA 9:50 - 10:30 Climate Panel Discussion 3A-5 10:30 - 10:50 BREAK 12/20/2018 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 4

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 3B: Flood Protection and Plant Response Session Chair: TBD 10:50 - 11:15 Qualitative Risk Ranking Process of External Flood Penetration Seals 3B-1 Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 11:15- 11:40 Results of Performance of Flood-Rated Penetration Seals Tests 3B-2 William (Mark) Cummings^, Fisher Engineering, Inc. (formerly Fire Risk Management, Inc.)

11:40- 1205 Modeling Overtopping Erosion Tests of Zoned Rockfill Embankments 3B-3 Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 12:05- 12:45 Flood Protection and Plant Response Panel Discussion 3B-4 12:45 - 13:45 LUNCH Session 3C: Towards External Flooding PRA Session Chair: TBD 13:45 - 14:10 External Flooding PRA Walkdown Guidance 3C-1 Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 14:10 - 14:35 Updates on the Revision and Expansion of the External Flooding PRA 3C-2 Standard Michelle(Shelby) Bensi*, University of Maryland 14:35 - 15:00 Tentative: External Flooding PRA Presentation 3C-3 Invited Speaker 15:00 - 15:40 Towards External Flooding PRA Discussion Panel 3C-4 15:40 - 16:00 Wrap-up Discussion 12/20/2018 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 5

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