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{{#Wiki_filter:VIRGINIA ELECTRIC AND POWER COMPANY RICHMOND, VIRGINIA 23261 September 14, 2022 U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission                            Serial No.:  22-264 Attention: Document Control Desk                              NRA/ENC:      RO Washington, DC 20555-0001                                      Docket Nos.: 50-280/281 License Nos.: DPR-32/37 VIRGINIA ELECTRIC AND POWER COMPANY (DOMINION ENERGY VIRGINIA)
{{#Wiki_filter:}}
SURRY POWER STATION UNITS 1 AND 2 10 CFR 50, APPENDIX E, EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE Pursuant to 10 CFR 50, Appendix E, Section IV.4, Virginia Electric and Power Company (Dominion Energy Virginia) submits the enclosed evacuation time estimate (ETE) study for Surry Power Station (SPS) Units 1 and 2.
The enclosed SPS ETE study was developed using the 2020 decennial census data from the U. S. Census Bureau and provides the methods used to derive, for planning purposes, the time for public evacuation. The study provides an important part of the bases for development of protective action recommendations in coordination with the i:ipplicable offsite state/local emergency response agencies.
If you have any questions or require additional information, please contact Ms. Erica N.
Combs at (804) 273-3386.
Sincerely,
      )_:Jf~... ~ ~\.~,"
Fred Mladen Site Vice President - Surry Power Station Dominion Energy Virginia Commitments made in this letter: None
 
==Enclosure:==
Surry Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study
 
Serial No.: 22-264 Docket Nos.: 50-280/281 Page 2 of 2 cc: Regional Administrator, Region II U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Marquis One Tower 245 Peachtree Center Avenue, NE, Suite 1200 Atlanta, Georgia 30303-1257 Mr. L. John Klos NRC Senior Project Manager- Surry Power Station U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Mail Stop 09 E-3 One White Flint North 11555 Rockville Pike Rockville, Maryland 20852-2738 NRC Senior Resident Inspector Surry Power Station
 
Serial No.: 22-264 Docket Nos.: 50-280/281 ENCLOSURE Surry Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study SURRY POWER STATION UNITS 1 AND 2 VIRGINIA ELECTRIC AND POWER COMPANY (DOMINION ENERGY VIRGINIA)
 
ENGINEERING, P.C.
Surry Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates Charlel*
City County I
aaremont                            I Surry County
                                                                                                            /
                                                                                                          /  James River
_ Legend Gl SPS PAZ                O..te:7/8/1011 C.Opyri~ht: ESRI ~U a nd Maps 2020
    '--:, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings KLDEn2ineerine,Domiinion 2.5 Smithfield Work performed for Dominion, by:
KLD Engineering, P.C.
1601 Veterans Memorial Highway, Suite 340 Islandia, NY 11749 E-mail: kweinisch@kldcompanies.com September 5, 2022                                                          Final Report, Rev. 0                      KLDTR-1273
 
Table of Contents EXECUTIVE
 
==SUMMARY==
................................................................................. .. ........................ ....................... 1 1    INTRODUCTION ..................................... .................................. ........................................................... 1-1 1.1      Overview of the ETE Process ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2      The Surry Power Station Location .............................................................................................. 1-3 1.3      Preliminary Activities ................................................................................................................. 1-3 1.4      Comparison with Prior ETE Study .............................................................................................. 1-6 2    STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................ 2-1 2.1      Data Estimates Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2      Methodological Assumptions .................................................................................................... 2-1 2.3      Study Assumptions on Mobilization Times ................................................................................ 2-3 2.4    Transit Dependent Assumptions ................................................................................................ 2-3 2.5    Traffic and Access Control Assumptions .................................................................................... 2-5 2.6      Scenarios and Regions ............................................................................................................... 2-6 3    DEMAND ESTIMATION ....................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1      Permanent Residents ..................................... ............................................................................ 3-2 3.1.1      The College of William and Mary ........................... ...... ................ .................................... .. 3-2 3.1.2      Military Installations .... .. ................................. .... ............. ....................... .. .. ........ ............... 3-3 3.2      Shadow Population .................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3    Transient Population .................................................................................................................. 3-4 3.4      Employees .................................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.5      Medical Facilities ........................................................................................................................ 3-7 3.6    Transit Dependent Population ................................................................................................... 3-8 3.7      School and Day Care Centers (operated by schools) Population Demand .............................. 3-10 3.8      Special Event ..................................... .......................................................................... ............. 3-11 3.9      Access and/or Functional Needs Population ........................................................................... 3-11 3.10    Correctional Facilities ..................................................... .......................................................... 3-12 3.11    External Traffic ............. ............................................... ............................................... .............. 3-12 3.12    Background Traffic .............................................................. ............................................. ........ 3-13 3.13    Summary of Demand ............................... ................................................................................ 3-13 4    ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY ............. ......... ............... .......................................................... 4-1 4.1      Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections ........................... ................................... 4-2 4.2      Capacity Estimation along Sections of Highway ....................................................................... .4-4 4.3      Application to the SPS Study Area ............................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.1      Two-Lane Roads ................................................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.2      Multilane Highway ............................................................................................................. 4-6 4.3.3      Freeways ..................... .............. ........ .... .......... ...................... .. ..... .. ............................. ....... 4-7 4.3.4      Intersections ......................................... ............................................................................. 4-8 4.4      Simulation and Capacity Estimation .......................................................................................... 4-8 4.5      Boundary Conditions .................................................................................................................. 4-9 5    ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME .......................................................................................... 5-1 5.1      Background ..................................... ..................... .. .................................................................... 5-1 Surry Power Station                                                                                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                    Rev. 0
 
5.2      Fundamental Considerations ............................................. ........................................................ 5-2 5.3      Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 ................. ...................... ............ 5-4 5.4      Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution ...................... ................................................ 5-5 5.4.1      Statistical Outliers ............. ..................... ........................... .............................................. ... 5-5 5.4.2      Staged Evacuation Trip Generation ....................................................... ............................ 5-8 5.4.3      Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas ................................................... 5-9 6      DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS ..................................................................... 6-1 7      GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) .......................................................... 7-1 7.1      Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation ......................................................................... 7-1 7 .2      Staged Evacuation ...................................................................................................................... 7-2 7 .3      Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation ..................................................................... 7-2 7 .4      Evacuation Rates ........................................................................................................................ 7-4 7.5      Evacuation Time Estimate Results .............................................. ..................................... .......... 7-5 7.6      Staged Evacuation Results ............................................................ ............................................. 7-7 7.7      Guidance on Using ETE Tables ..... .............................................................................................. 7-7 8      TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES ................................. 8-1 8.1      ETE for Schools, Day Care Centers, Day Camps, Transit Dependent People, Medical Facilities, and Correctional Facilities ......................................................................................... .................. .... ....... 8-2 8.2      ETE for Access and/or Functional Needs Population .......... ... .... .................... .. ...................... .. .. 8-9 9      TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ...................................................................................... ............. 9-1 9.1      Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 9-2 9.2      Additional Considerations .......................................................................................................... 9-2 10 EVACUATION ROUTES AND EVACUATION ASSEMBLY CENTERS ..................................................... 10-1 10.1      Evacuation Routes .................................................................................................................... 10-1 10.2      Evacuation Assembly Centers .................................................................................................. 10-2 List of Appendices A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS ............. ..................................................................... A-1 B.      DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL.. ................................... .................... B-1 B.1      Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model. ................................................... B-1 B.2.1      DTRAD Description ............................................................................................................. B-2 B.2.2      Network Equilibrium .......................................................................................................... B-4 C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL ............................................................................................... C-1 C.1      Methodology .............................................................................................................................. C-2 C.1.1      The Fundamental Diagram ................................................................................................. C-2 C.1.2      The Simulation Model ................................................................................... ..................... C-2 C.1.3      Lane Assignment ........................................................................................................... ..... C-6 C.2      Implementation ......................................................................................................................... C-6 Surry Power Station                                                    ii                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
C.2.1      Computational Procedure .................................................................................................. C-6 C.2.2      Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment {DTRAD) ..................................................... C-7 D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE .............................................................................. D-1 E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA ...................................................................................................................... E-1 F. DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY ..................................................................................................................... F-1 F.l      Introduction ............................................................................................................................... F-1 F.2      Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan ....................................................................................... F-1 F.3      Survey Results ............................................................................................................................ F-2 F.3.1 Household Demographic Results ........................................................................................... F-2 F.3.2    Evacuation Response ............................................................................................................. F-3 F.3.3    Time Distribution Results ....................................................................................................... F-4 F.3.4    Emergency Communications ................................................................................................. F-6 G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN .......................................................................................................... G-1 G.l      Manual Traffic Control .............................................................................................................. G-1 G.2      Analysis of Key TCP/ACP Locations ........................................................................................... G-1 H    EVACUATION REGIONS ..................................................................................................................... H-1 J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM ..................................... J-1 K. EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK .................................................................................................. K-1 L. PAZ BOUNDARIES .................................................................................................................................. 1 M. EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES ................................................................................................. M-1 M.l      Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Time .............................................................................. M-1 M.2      Effect of Changes in the Number of People in the Shadow Region Who Relocate ................. M-1 M.3      Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population ......................................................................... M-2 M.4      Enhancements in Evacuation Time .......................................................................................... M-3 N. ETE    CRITERIA CHECKLIST ................................................................................................................... N-1 Note: Appendix I intentionally skipped Surry Power Station                                                    iii                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                            Rev.0
 
List of Figures Figure 1-1. SPS Location ..................... ....................................... .............................................................. 1-13 Figure 1-2. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network ........................................................................................... 1-14 Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology ..................................................................................... 2-10 Figure 3-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ ................................................................................................. 3-29 Figure 3-2. Permanent Resident Population by Sector ............................................................................ 3-30 Figure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles by Sector ................................................................................ 3-31 Figure 3-4. Shadow Population by Sector ................................................................................................ 3-32 Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by Sector .................................................................................................... 3-33 Figure 3-6. Transient Population by Sector .............................................. ........................................... ..... 3-34 Figure 3-7. Transient Vehicles by Sector ............. .... ............. ..................... .. ............ .................... ...... ....... 3-35 Figure 3-8. Employee Population by Sector ............................................................................................. 3-36 Figure 3-9. Employee Vehicles by Sector ................................................................................................. 3-37 Figure 4-1. Fundamental Diagrams .......................................................................................................... 4-10 Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip ............................................................ 5-17 Figure 5-2. Time Distributions for Evacuation Mobilization Activities .................................................... 5-18 Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution ....................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions ....................................................................... 5-20 Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5-Mile Region
.................................................................................................................................................................5-21 Figure 6-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ ......... ................ .......... ............. ......... ... ................... .................... 6-9 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology ....................... ...................... ...................... ...... ............ 7-20 Figure 7-2 . SPS Shadow Region ... ............ .......... ......... ... .................. .................. ...................... ............. .... 7-21 Figure 7-3 . Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate ...................................... ....... 7-22 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ................................ ........... 7-23 Figure 7-5 . Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ........ ............................. ...... 7-24 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ................. 7-25 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 7 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ................................ ........... 7-26 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours and 25 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ................. 7-27 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 1 for Region R03 ...................................................... 7-28 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 2 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-28 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 3 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-29 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 4 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-29 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 5 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-30 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 6 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-30 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 7 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-31 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 8 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-31 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 9 for Region R03 .................................................... 7-32 Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 10 for Region R03 .................................................. 7-32 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 11 for Region R03 .................................................. 7-33 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 12 for Region R03 .................................................. 7-33 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 13 for Region R03 ...................................... ............ 7-34 Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 14 for Region R03 .......... ......... .. ................ .. .. ......... 7-34 Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations .... .... .................. .... .................. .... ........ .......... 8-31 Figure 10-1. Major Evacuation Routes within the SPS EPZ ......................... .. .......... .......... .. ........ .......... 10-12 Figure 10-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for Isle of Wight County .......... ...................... .. .. ............... 10-13 Surry Power Station                                                                iv                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                        Rev. 0
 
Figure 10-3. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for Surry County .............................................................. 10-14 Figure 10-4. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for York County ................................................................ 10-15 Figure 10-5. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Williamsburg ............................................. 10-16 Figure 10-6. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for James City County ...................................................... 10-17 Figure 10-7. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (1 of 2) ............................. 10-18 Figure 10-8. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (2 of 2) ............................. 10-19 Figure 10-9. General Population Evacuation Assembly Centers ............................................................ 10-20 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD lnterface ........................................................................ B-5 Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network ......................................................................................... C-12 Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams ......................................................................................................... C-13 Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with ti> 0 ............................................................................ C-13 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3) .................................................... C-14 Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities ..................................................................................................... D-5 Figure E-1. Overview of Schools within the EPZ ...................................................................................... E-14 Figure E-2. Schools within the EPZ - North .............................................................................................. E-15 Figure E-3. Schools within the EPZ - East ................................................................................................ E-16 Figure E-4. Overview of Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ ............................................. E-17 Figure E-5. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ - North .................................................... E-18 Figure E-6. Day Care Centers within the EPZ - East ................................................................................. E-19 Figure E-7. Medical Facilities within the EPZ ........................................................................................... E-20 Figure E-8. Major Employers within the EPZ ............................................................................................ E-21 Figure E-9. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ ................................................................................ E-22 Figure E-10. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ ............................................................................ E-23 Figure E-11. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ ........................................ E-24 Figure E-12. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (1 of 3) ............................................................................. E-25 Figure E-13. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (2 of 3) ............................................................................. E-26 Figure E-14. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (3 of 3) ............................................................................. E-27 Figure E-15. Correctional Facilities and Military Installations within the EPZ ......................................... E-28 Figure F-1. Household Size in the Study Area ........................................................................................... F-8 Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability ................................................................................................ F-8 Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability- 1 to 6+ Person Households .................................................................... F-9 Figure F-4. Household Ridesharing Preference ......................................................................................... F-9 Figure F-5. Commuters per Households in the Study Area ..................................................................... F-10 Figure F-6. Modes of Travel in the Study Area ........................................................................................ F-10 Figure F-7. Impact to Commuters due to the COVID-19 Pandemic ........................................................ F-11 Figure F-8. Households with Functional or Transportation Needs ......................................................... F-11 Figure F-9. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation ............................................................................. F-12 Figure F-10. Percent of Households that Await Returning Commuter Before Leaving ........................... F-12 Figure F-11. Study Area Evacuation Destinations .................................................................................... F-13 Figure F-12. Households with Pets/Animals ............................................................................................ F-13 Figure F-13. Households Evacuating with Pets/Animals .......................................................................... F-14 Figure F-14. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/College .............................................................. F-14 Figure F-15. Time to Commute Home from Work/College ...................................................................... F-15 Figure F-16. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation ................................................................................ F-15 Figure F-17. Time to Remove 6-8" of Snow from Driveway or Curb ....................................................... F-16 Figure F-18. Cell Phone Signal Reliability ................................................................................................. F-16 Figure F-19. Likelihood to Take Action Based off Emergency Management Officials Guidelines ........... F-17 Surry Power Station                                          V                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev.0
 
Figure F-2O. Emergency Communication Alert ........................................................................................ F-17 Figure G-1. Traffic Control Points and Access Control Points for the SPS Study Area .............................. G-5 Figure H-1. Region ROl .............................................................................................................................. H-4 Figure H-2. Region RO2 .............................................................................................................................. H-5 Figure H-3. Region RO3 .............................................................................................................................. H-6 Figure H-4. Region RO4 .............................................................................................................................. H-7 Figure H-5. Region ROS .............................................................................................................................. H-8 Figure H-6. Region ROG .............................................................................................................................. H-9 Figure H-7. Region RO7 ............................................................................................................................ H-1O Figure H-8. Region ROB ............................................................................................................................ H-11 Figure H-9. Region RO9 ............................................................................................................................ H-12 Figure H-1O. Region RlO .......................................................................................................................... H-13 Figure H-11. Region Rll .......................................................................................................................... H-14 Figure H-12. Region Rl2 .......................................................................................................................... H-15 Figure H-13. Region Rl3 .......................................................................................................................... H-16 Figure H-14. Region Rl4 .......................................................................................................................... H-17 Figure H-15. Region RlS .......................................................................................................................... H-18 Figure H-16. Region Rl6 .......................................................................................................................... H-19 Figure H-17. Region Rl7 .......................................................................................................................... H-2O Figure H-18. Region Rl8 .......................................................................................................................... H-21 Figure H-19. Region Rl9 .......................................................................................................................... H-22 Figure H-2O. Region R2O .......................................................................................................................... H-23 Figure H-21. Region R21 .......................................................................................................................... H-24 Figure H-22. Region R22 .......................................................................................................................... H-25 Figure H-23. Region R23 .......................................................................................................................... H-26 Figure H-24. Region R24 .......................................................................................................................... H-27 Figure H-25. Region R25 .......................................................................................................................... H-28 Figure H-26. Region R26 .......................................................................................................................... H-29 Figure H-27. Region R27 .......................................................................................................................... H-3O Figure H-28. Region R28 .......................................................................................................................... H-31 Figure H-29. Region R29 .......................................................................................................................... H-32 Figure H-3O. Region R3O .......................................................................................................................... H-33 Figure H-31. Region R31 .......................................................................................................................... H-34 Figure H-32. Region R32 .......................................................................................................................... H-35 Figure H-33. Region R33 .......................................................................................................................... H-36 Figure H-34. Region R34 .......................................................................................................................... H-37 Figure H-35. Region R35 .......................................................................................................................... H-38 Figure H-36. Region R36 .......................................................................................................................... H-39 Figure H-37. Region R37 .......................................................................................................................... H-4O Figure H-38. Region R38 .......................................................................................................................... H-41 Figure H-39. Region R39 .......................................................................................................................... H-42 Figure H-4O. Region R4O .......................................................................................................................... H-43 Figure H-41. Region R41 .......................................................................................................................... H-44 Figure H-42. Region R42 .......................................................................................................................... H-45 Figure H-43. Region R43 .......................................................................................................................... H-46 Figure H-44. Region R44 .......................................................................................................................... H-47 Figure H-45. Region R45 .......................................................................................................................... H-48 Surry Power Station                                                  vi                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
Figure H-46. Region R46 .......................................................................................................................... H-49 Figure H-47. Region R47 .......................................................................................................................... H-50 Figure H-48. Region R48 .......................................................................................................................... H-51 Figure H-49. Region R49 .......................................................................................................................... H-52 Figure J-1. Network Sources/Origins .......................................................................................................... J-6 Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 1) .............. J-7 Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2) ............................... J-7 Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 3) .............. J-8 Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4) .............................. J-8 Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 5) ................................................................................................................................................ J-9 Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 6) ................ J-9 Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 7) ............ J-10 Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8) ................... J-10 Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 9) ............ J-11 Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 10) ........ J-11 Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11) .............. J-12 Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 12) ............................................................................................................................................ J-12 Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario 13) ............................................................................................................................................ J-13 Figure J-15. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14) ............................................................................................................................................ J-13 Figure K-1. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network ............................................................................................. K-2 Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 1 ..................................................................................... K-3 Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 2 ..................................................................................... K-4 Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 3 ..................................................................................... K-5 Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 4 ..................................................................................... K-6 Figure K-6. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 5 ..................................................................................... K-7 Figure K-7. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 6 ..................................................................................... K-8 Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 7 ..................................................................................... K-9 Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 8 ................................................................................... K-10 Figure K-10. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 9 ................................................................................. K-11 Figure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 10 ............................................................................... K-12 Figure K-12. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 11 ............................................................................... K-13 Figure K-13. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 12 ............................................................................... K-14 Figure K-14. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 13 ............................................................................... K-15 Figure K-15. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 14 ............................................................................... K-16 Figure K-16. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 15 ............................................................................... K-17 Figure K-17. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 16 ............................................................................... K-18 Figure K-18. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 17 ............................................................................... K-19 Figure K-19. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 18 ............................................................................... K-20 Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 19 ............................................................................... K-21 Figure K-21. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 20 ............................................................................... K-22 Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 21 ............................................................................... K-23 Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 22 ............................................................................... K-24 Figure K-24. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 23 ............................................................................... K-25 Surry Power Station                                                        vii                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                  Rev.0
 
Figure K-25. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 24 ............................................................................... K-26 Figure K-26. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 25 ............................................................................... K-27 Figure K-27. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 26 ............................................................................... K-28 Figure K-28. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 27 ............................................................................... K-29 Figure K-29. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 28 ............................................................................... K-30 Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 29 ............................................................................... K-31 Figure K-31. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 30 ............................................................................... K-32 Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 31 ............................................................................... K-33 Figure K-33. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 32 ............................................................................... K-34 Figure K-34. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 33 ............................................................................... K-35 Figure K-35. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 34 ............................................................................... K-36 Figure K-36. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 35 ............................................................................... K-37 Figure K-37. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 36 ............................................................................... K-38 Figure K-38. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 37 ............................................................................... K-39 Figure K-39. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 38 ............................................................................... K-40 Figure K-40. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 39 ............................................................................... K-41 Figure K-41. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 40 ............................................................................... K-42 Figure K-42. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 41 ............................................................................... K-43 Figure K-43. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 42 ............................................................................... K-44 Figure K-44. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 43 ............................................................................... K-45 Figure K-45. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 44 ............................................................................... K-46 Figure K-46. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 45 ............................................................................... K-47 Figure K-47. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 46 ............................................................................... K-48 Figure K-48. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 47 ............................................................................... K-49 Figure K-49. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 48 ............................................................................... K-50 Figure K-50. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 49 ............................................................................... K-51 Figure K-51. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid SO ............................................................................... K-52 Figure K-52. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 51 ............................................................................... K-53 Figure K-53. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 52 ............................................................................... K-54 Figure K-54. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 53 ............................................................................... K-55 Figure K-55. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 54 ............................................................................... K-56 Figure K-56. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 55 ............................................................................... K-57 Figure K-57. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 56 ............................................................................... K-58 Figure K-58. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 57 ............................................................................... K-59 Figure K-59. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 58 ............................................................................... K-60 Figure K-60. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 59 ............................................................................... K-61 Figure K-61. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 60 ............................................................................... K-62 Figure K-62. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 61 ............................................................................... K-63 Figure K-63. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 62 ............................................................................... K-64 Figure K-64. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 63 ............................................................................... K-65 Figure K-65. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 64 ............................................................................... K-66 Figure K-66. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 65 ............................................................................... K-67 Figure K-67. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 66 ............................................................................... K-68 Figure K-68. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 67 ............................................................................... K-69 Figure K-69. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 68 ............................................................................... K-70 Figure K-70. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 69 ............................................................................... K-71 Figure K-71. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 70 ............................................................................... K-72 Surry Power Station                                viii                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Figure K-72. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid  71 ............................................................................... K-73 Figure K-73. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid  72 ............................................................................... K-74 Figure K-74. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid  73 ............................................................................... K-75 Figure K-75. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid  74 ............................................................................... K-76 Figure K-76. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid  75 ............................................................................... K-77 Figure K-77. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid  76 ............................................................................... K-78 Figure K-78. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid  77 ............................................................................... K-79 Figure K-79. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 78 ............................................................................... K-80 Figure K-80. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 79 ............................................................................... K-81 Surry Power Station                                ix                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
List of Tables Table  1-1. Stakeholder Interaction ................................. ................. .................. ...................... ................. 1-8 Table  1-2. Highway Characteristics ........................................................................................................... 1-8 Table  1-3. ETE Study Comparisons ............................................................................................................ 1-9 Table  2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions ............................................................................................... 2-8 Table  2-2. Model Adjustment for Adverse Weather ................................................................................. 2-9 Table  3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population ...................................................................................... 3-14 Table  3-2. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by PAZ ............................................................ 3-15 Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by Sector ............................................................................ 3-16 Table 3-4. Summary of Transients and Transient Vehicles .. ............................ .......... .......... .............. ...... 3-17 Table  3-5. Summary of Employees and Employee Vehicles Commuting into the EPZ ............................ 3-18 Table 3-6. Medical Facility Transit Demand Estimates .... .......................... .......................... .............. ...... 3-19 Table 3-7. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates .......... ............ .......... ............ .................................. 3-20 Table 3-8. School, Day Care Center and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates ...................... .......... 3-21 Table 3-9. Access and/or Functional Needs Demand Summary ........................................................ ..... 3-23 Table  3-10. SPS External Traffic ............................................................................................................... 3-24 Table 3-11. Summary of Population Demand* ........................................................................................ 3-25 Table 3-12. Summary of Vehicle Demand* .............................................................................................. 3-27 Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities .............................................................................. 5-11 Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public ............................................................................. 5-11 Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work ................................................. 5-12 Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home ................................................................ 5-12 Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Leave Home ...................... ...................... .... 5-13 Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6 11 -8 11 of Snow from Driveway .......... .................... 5-13 Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events .. ...................... .......... ............ .......... ...................... .............. 5-14 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions .............. ................................... ...... ........... ........................... 5-14 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-Staged Evacuation .................... 5-15 Table  5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation ....................... 5-16 Table  6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions ...................................... ...................... ............................... 6-4 Table  6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions .............. ............................... .......... ............ .......... .................. 6-6 Table  6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios ................ .... ........................ 6-7 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario ........ .. ................. .................... .............. ........ .... .......... ........ .... ... 6-8 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population .................... ..... 7-10 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population ....................... 7-13 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region ......................... 7-16 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region ....................... 7-17 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions ......................................................................................... 7-18 Table  8-1. Summary of Transportation Resources .................................................................................. 8-11 Table  8-2. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather .................................... 8-12 Table  8-3. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow ................................. 8-14 Table  8-4. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow ........................................ 8-16 Table 8-5. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather ......................................... 8-18 Table  8-6. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates- Rain/Light Snow ....................................... 8-20 Table  8-7. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow .............................................. 8-22 Table  8-8. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather ............................................ 8-24 Table 8-9. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow .......................................... 8-26 Surry Power Station                                                X                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. 0
 
Table 8-10. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow .............................................. 8-28 Table 8-11. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates ................................................................. 8-30 Table 8-12. Access and/or Functional Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates ............................ 8-30 Table 10-1. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes ........................................................................ 10-3 Table 10-2. Bus Route Descriptions ........................................................................................................ 10-5 Table 10-3. School and Day care Evacuation Assembly Centers ........................................................... 10-10 Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms .................................................................................... A-1 Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II ........................................................ C-8 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model ........................................................................... C-9 Table C-3. Glossary ..................................................................................................................................C-10 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ .............................................................................................................. E-2 Table E-2. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ ..................................................................... E-4 Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ .............................................................................................. E-6 Table E-4. Major Employers within the EPZ ............................................................................................... E-7 Table E-5. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ ................................................................................... E-8 Table E-6. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ ................................................................................. E-9 Table E-7. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ ........................................... E-10 Table E-8. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ ............................................................................................. E-11 Table E-9. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ ...................................................................................... E-13 Table F-1. SPS Demographic Survey Sampling Plan .................................................................................. F-7 Table G-1. List of Key Manual Traffic Control Locations ........................................................................... G-3 Table G-2. ETE with No MTC .................................................................................................................... G-4 Table H-1. Percent of PAZ Population Evacuating for Each Region .......................................................... H-2 Table J-1. Sample Simulation Model Input ............................................................................................... J-2 Table J-2. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03) ........................... J-3 Table J-3. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1) ................................................................................................................................................. J-4 Table J-4. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 ......................... J-5 Table K-1. Summary of Nodes by the Type of Control. ............................................................................. K-1 Table M-1. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study ....................................... M-4 Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study .................................................... M-4 Table M-3. ETE Variation with Population Change ................................................................................. M-5 Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist .................................................................................................. N-1 Surry Power Station                                                          xi                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                  Rev.0
 
EXECUTIVE
 
==SUMMARY==
 
This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Surry Power Station (SPS) located in Surry County, Virginia. ETE are part of the required planning basis and provide Dominion Energy and state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action Decision-making.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Governmental agencies. Most important of these are:
* Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 (10CFRS0), Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, NRC, 2011.
* Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, February 2021.
* FEMA, "Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual" (FEMA P-1028),
December 2019.
Overview of Project Activities This project began in February 2021 and extended over a period of 18 months. The major activities performed are briefly described in chronological sequence:
* Conducted a virtual kick-off meeting with Dominion Energy personnel and emergency management personnel representing state and city/county governments.
* Accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the year 2020.
* Studied Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of the SPS, then conducted a detailed field survey of the highway network.
* Updated the analysis network representing the highway system topology and capacities within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus a Shadow Region covering the region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant.
* Conducted a random-sample online demographic survey of residents within the EPZ, to gather focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database. The survey instrument was reviewed and modified by the licensee and ORO personnel prior to the survey.
* Data pertaining to employment, transients, and special facilities in each city/county were provided by Dominion Energy and by state and city/county offsite response organizations (OROs), supplemented with internet searches where data was missing.
* The traffic demand and trip-generation rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated from the gathered data. The trip generation rates reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e., the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) computed using the results of the demographic survey of EPZ residents.
Surry Power Station                            ES-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
* The EPZ is subdivided into 30 PAZs. Following federal guidelines, these existing PAZs are grouped within circular areas or "keyhole" configurations (circles plus radial sectors) that define a total of 49 Evacuation Regions.
* The time-varying external circumstances are represented as Evacuation Scenarios, each described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of Week (Midweek, Weekend); (3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening); and (4) Weather (Good, Rain, Snow). One special event scenario - Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at capacity on a summer weekend - was considered. One roadway impact scenario was considered wherein a single lane was closed on Interstate 64 westbound for the duration of the evacuation.
* Staged evacuation was considered for those regions wherein the 2-Mile Region and sectors downwind to 5 miles were evacuated.
* As per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, the Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is:
A rapidly escalating accident at the SPS that quickly assumes the status of a general emergency wherein evacuation is ordered promptly, and no early protective action have been implemented such that the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) is virtually coincident with the siren alert.
While an unlikely scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE, measured as the elapsed time from the ATE until the stated percentage of the population exits the impacted Region, that represent "upper bound" estimates. This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events.
* If the emergency occurs while schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps are in session, the ETE study assumes that the children will be evacuated by bus directly to Evacuation Assembly Centers (EACs) located outside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors are advised to not pick up their children at these facilities prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that purpose. The ETE for children at these facilities are calculated separately. It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.
* Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either ride-share with relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the city/county and state Radiological Emergency Response Plans (RERP). Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated with public transit, as needed: bus, wheelchair bus/van, or ambulance, as required. Separate ETE are calculated for the transit-dependent evacuees, for access and/or functional needs population, correctional facilities, and for those evacuated from special facilities.
* Conducted a "final" meeting with Dominion Energy, emergency management personnel and the OROs to present final results of the study.
Surry Power Station                                ES-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Computation of ETE A total of 686 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETE quantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 49 Evacuation Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14 Evacuation Scenarios {49 x 14 = 686). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent evacuees, including children at schools, day care centers, and day camps for applicable scenarios.
Except for Region R03, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a portion of the people within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate. That is, the ATE applies only to those people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100% of the people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this ATE. The people occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take shelter.
The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside the impacted region, will elect to "voluntarily" evacuate. In addition, 20% of the population in the Shadow Region will also elect to evacuate. These voluntary evacuees could impede those who are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by voluntary evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.
Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2-Mile Region evacuate immediately, while those beyond 2 miles, but within the EPZ, shelter-in-place. Once 90% of the 2-Mile Region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate. As per federal guidance, 20% of people beyond 2 miles will evacuate (non-compliance) even though they are advised to shelter-in-place.
The computational procedure is outlined as follows:
* A link-node representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a unidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or merge point. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations and on established traffic engineering procedures.
* The evacuation trips are generated at locations called "zonal centroids" located within the EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on population density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area.
* The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are compliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of the plant), then simulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation process estimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region.
The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 90% and 100%, respectively, of the population within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region. These statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats. The 90th percentile ETE have been identified as the values that should be considered when making protective action decisions because the 100th Surry Power Station                              ES-3                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
percentile ETE are prolonged by those relatively few people who take longer to mobilize. This is referred to as the "evacuation tail" in Section 4.0 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
Traffic Management Plan This study references the comprehensive traffic management plan provided by James City, York, Isle of Wight and Surry Counties and the Cities of Williamsburg and Newport News. No additional traffic or access control measures have been identified as a result of this study.
Selected Results A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of figures and tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below.
* Table 3-1 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each PAZ based on the 2020 Census data.
* Table 6-1 defines each of the 49 Evacuation Regions in terms of their respective groups of PAZs to be evacuated.
* Table 6-2 lists the 14 Evacuation Scenarios.
* Tables 7-1 and 7-2 are compilations of ETE for the general population. These data are the times needed to clear the indicated regions of 90% and 100% of the population occupying these regions, respectively. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the Shadow Region.
* Tables 7-3 and 7-4 present ETE for the 2-Mile Region for un-staged (concurrent) and staged evacuations for the 90th and 100th percentiles, respectively.
* Table 8-2 presents ETE for the children at schools, day care centers, and day camps in good weather.
* Table 8-5 presents ETE for the transit-dependent population in good weather.
* Table 8-8 presents ETE for the medical facilities in good weather.
* Figure 6-1 displays a map of the SPS EPZ showing the layout of the 30 PAZs that comprise, in aggregate, the EPZ.
* Figure H-11 presents an example of an Evacuation Region (Region Rll) to be evacuated under the circumstances defined in Table 6-1. See Appendix H for maps of all regions.
Conclusions
* General population ETE were computed for 686 unique cases. Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles. These ETE range from 2:20 (hr:min) to 5:35 at the 90th percentile, and from 4:45 to 8:25 at the 100th percentile.
* The comparison of Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the ETE for the 100th percentile are significantly longer (2:25 to 2:50 longer) than those for the 90th percentile. This is indicative of the pronounced traffic congestion in the EPZ on the north side of the James River beyond 5 miles from the plant. Congestion within the EPZ clears at 5 hours and 55 minutes after the ATE. The last remnants of traffic congestion in the study area are north of the EPZ along the 1-64 corridor which clear at 8 hours and 40 minutes after the Surry Power Station                              ES-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
ATE.
* Inspection of Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 indicates that a staged evacuation provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2-Mile Region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those beyond 2 miles (compare Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0 with Regions R42 through R49, respectively, in Tables 7-1 and 7-2). See Section 7.6 for additional discussion. Staged evacuation is not recommended for the SPS EPZ.
* Comparison of Scenarios 3 and 13 in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the special event, Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg (see Section 3.8) operating at capacity, increases 90 th percentile ETE by up to 10 minutes and 100th percentile ETE by up to 20 minutes. The increased transients at these facilities on a peak summer weekend greatly increases local congestion near Busch Gardens and Water Country USA; however, the bottleneck north of Williamsburg (see discussion in Section 7.3) dictates the ETE. There is sufficient roadway capacity south of the EPZ to handle the additional transient vehicles.
* Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Tabl indicates that the roadway closure - a single lane on 1-64 westbound from the interchange with State Route 143 - Exit 247 - in PAZ 16 to the northern boundary of the EPZ (just north of the Camp Peary interchange - Exit 238) - increases the 90th percentile ETE by at most 5 minutes. The roadway closure has no effect on regions which do not involve the evacuation of PAZs in and around the City of Williamsburg. The roadway impact scenario also has minimal impacts on the 100th percentile ETE for some regions with increases of at most 10 minutes. 1-64 westbound is normally 3 lanes in the area of the lane closure. Despite closing a lane, there are still 2 lanes available to service the evacuating traffic. The ramps to access 1-64 are the bottlenecks in this area, not the main thoroughfare. The bottleneck on the main thoroughfare of 1-64 westbound is farther west where the road narrows to 2 lanes west of Newman Rd (State Route 199).
* Separate ETE were computed for schools, day care centers, and day camps, transit-dependent persons, medical facilities, correctional facilities, and access and/or functional needs persons. The average single-wave ETE for most of these facilities is comparable to or less than the general population ETE at the 90th percentile. See Section 8.
* Table 8-1 indicates that there are sufficient bus resources to evacuate the entire school/day care center/day camp population, transit dependent population, correctional facility population, access and/or functional needs population, and ambulatory/wheelchair bound population at medical facilities in the EPZ in a single wave. However, there are not enough ambulances available to evacuate the bedridden people at medical facilities in a single wave. See Section 8.1.
* If evacuees mobilize one hour quicker, the 90th percentile ETE remains the same and the 100th percentile ETE increases by 5 minutes. While the increase in 100th percentile ETE when mobilizing more quickly may seem counterintuitive, in a highly congested environment such as the SPS EPZ, this is to be expected. As discussed in Section 7.6, compressing the mobilization time can cause a spike or surge in demand during peak times which may exacerbate traffic congestion and prolong ETE.
Surry Power Station                              ES-5                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
* If evacuees mobilize one hour slower, the goth percentile ETE is increased by 5 minutes, and the 100th percentile ETE remains the same. As discussed in Section 7 .3, traffic congestion within the full EPZ clears (i.e., all highways within the EPZ operate at Level of Service A) at 5 hours and 55 minutes after the ATE. If the time to mobilize is less than 5 hours and 55 minutes, the 100th percentile ETE is dictated by congestion. See Section M.1 in Appendix M.
* Shadow evacuation has a significant impact on the goth and 100th percentile ETE. Doubling (40%), tripling (60%), and quadrupling (80%) the shadow evacuation percentage increases the goth percentile ETE by 10 minutes, 25 minutes and 50 minutes, respectively -
significant changes. A full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases goth percentile ETE by 1 hour and 10 minutes, also a significant change. Doubling (40%), tripling (60%), and quadrupling (80%) the shadow evacuation percentage and full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases the 100th percentile ETE by 20 minutes, 45 minutes, 1 hour and 15 minutes, and 1 hour and 45 minutes, respectively - significant changes. See Section M.2 in Appendix M.
* A population increase of 1g% or more in the full EPZ results in ETE changes which meet the NRC criteria for updating ETE between decennial Censuses. See Section M.3 in Appendix M.
Surry Power Station                              ES-6                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population PAZ              2010 Population        2020 Population 1                      244                      208 2                      884                      791 3                      514                      429 4                      236                      229 5                      618                      611 6                      177                      194 7                      262                      257 8                      0                        10 9                      603                      581 10                      200                      199 11                      82                      92 12                      95                      79 13                    1,167                    1,162 14                    5,914                  5,200 15                    25,003                  25,581 16                    45,649                  46,181 17                    1,974                  2,504 18A                    1,374                    1,360 18B                    4,153                    4,318 18C                    3,960                  4,096 18D                      71                      77 19A                    6,214                  6,531 19B                    1,033                    1,520 20A                      877                    1,711 20B                    2,521                  2,385 21                    13,384                  15,374 22A                    1,305                    1,649 22B                    3,460                  3,667 23                    19,627                  23,191 24                    11,076                  12,239 EPZ TOTAL                152,677                  162,426 EPZ Population Growth (2010-2020):              6.39%
Surry Power Station                                ES-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Re ion        Descri tion        De rees 0          2-Mile Re ion            /A ROZ        5-Mile Re ion          N/A R03            Full EPZ            N/A Re ion    Wind Direction From:    De rees
    /A    SW,      W, W,N      ,N  237-11 R04            NNE, NE            12- 56 ROS            ENE, E            57- 101 R06              ESE            102 - 123 R07                SE            124- 146 ROS              SSE            147 - 168 R09            s,ssw            169 - 213 RlO              SW            214- 236 Re ion    Wind Direction From:    De rees R11                N              349-11 R12              NNE              12- 33 R13              NE              34- 56 R14              ENE              57- 78 RlS                E            79- 101 R16              ESE            102- 123 17                SE            124- 146 RlS              SSE            147- 168 R19                s            169- 191 R20              SSW            192 - 213 R21              SW            214- 236 R22              WSW            237 - 258 R23                w            259- 281 R24            WNW              282 - 303 R25              NW            304- 326 R26              NNW            327- 348 Surry Power Station                                                ES-8                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev. O
 
Re ion    Wind Direction From:  De rees R27                N            349 -11 R28              NNE            12- 33 R29              NE            34-56 R30              ENE            57-78 R31                E          79-101 R32              ESE          102- 123 R33                SE          124-146 R34            SSE, S        147 - 191 R35              SSW          192- 213 R36              SW          214- 236 R37              WSW          237- 258 R38                w          259- 281 R39            WNW            282- 303 R40              NW          304- 326 R41              NNW          327- 348 Re ion    Wind Direction From:  De rees R42          5-Mile Region        N/A N/A    WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N  237 - 11 R43            NNE, NE          12- 56 R44            ENE, E          57 -101 R45              ESE          102- 123 R46                SE          124- 146 R47              SSE          147- 168 R48            s,ssw          169- 213 R49              SW          214- 236 Surry Power Station                          ES-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                        Rev. O
 
Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario      Season 1          Day of Week            Time of Day            Weather                        Special 1          Summer              Midweek                  Midday              Good                          None 2          Summer              Midweek                  Midday                Rain                        None 3          Summer              Weekend                  Midday              Good                          None 4          Summer              Weekend                  Midday                Rain                        None 5          Summer        Midweek, Weekend              Evening              Good                          None 6          Winter            Midweek                  Midday              Good                          None Rain/Light 7            Winter            Midweek                  Midday              Snow                          None 8          Winter            Midweek                  Midday          Heavy Snow                        None 9          Winter            Weekend                  Midday              Good                          None Rain/Light 10          Winter            Weekend                  Midday              Snow                          None 11          Winter            Weekend                  Midday          Heavy Snow                        None 12          Winter        Midweek, Weekend              Evening              Good                          None Special Event: Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at 13        Summer              Weekend                    Midday              Good          capacity on summer weekends Roadway Impact: Lane Closure 14        Summer              Midweek                  Midday              Good                on 1-64 Westbound 1 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
Surry Power Station                                            ES-10                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                            Rev.O
 
Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer          Summer          Summer                  Winter                              Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek          Weekend                                  Midweek                              Weekend                      Weekend    Midweek Weekend                                                                        Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)  (3)        (4)        (5)        (6)          (7)        (8)        (9)        (10)    (11)    (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday          Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good              Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain            Rain Weather          Weather                Weather    Weather      Snow        Snow      Weather      Snow    Snow  Weather      Event      Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl        2:30      2:30  2:50        2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50      2:50        2:30 RO2        2:45      2:45  2:25        2:25        2:25        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:45        2:45      3:50    2:45      2:25        2:45 RO3        3:55      4:20  3:40      4 :00        3:45        3:55        4 :20        5:15        3:35        3:45      4 :35  3:30      3:45        3:55 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4        2:35      2:35  2:30        2:30        2:45        2:40        2:40        3:40        2:45        2:45    3:45    2:50      2:30        2:35 ROS        2:40      2:40  2:35        2:35        2:45        2:45        2:45        3:45        2:45        2:45      3:45    2:50      2:35        2:40 ROG        2:55      2:55  2:40        2:40        2:50        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:50        2:50      3:50    2:55      2:40        2:55 RO7        3:00      3:00  2:50        2:50        2:50        3:05        3:05        4 :00      2:50        2:50    3:55    2:50      2:50        3:00 ROS        2:50      2:50  2:30        2:30        2:30        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:45        2:45      3:50    2:45      2:30        2:50 RO9        2:45      2:45  2:30        2:30        2:30        2:55        2:55        3:55        2:45        2:45      3:50    2:45      2:30        2:45 RlO        2:30      2:30  2:20        2:20        2:20        2:50        2:50        3:50        2:45        2:45      3:45    2:40      2:20        2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll        3:05      3:05  3:00      3:00        3:00        3:05        3:05        4 :00      3:00        3:00      4 :05  3:00      3:00        3:05 R12        3:05      3:05  2:55        2:55        3:00        3:05        3:05        4:05        3:00        3:00      4 :00  3:00      2:55        3:05 R13        2:55      2:55  2:50        2:50        2:55        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:55        2:55    4 :00  3:00      2:50        2:55 R14        2:55      2:55  2:50        2:50        2:55        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:55        2:55      4 :00  3:00      2:50        2:55 RlS        3:15      3:25  3:05      3:15        3:10        3:10        3:15        4 :10      3:00        3:15      4 :00  3:00      3:05        3:15 R16        4:05      4:20  3:45      4 :05        3:55        3:50        4:15        5:05        3:45        4:00      4 :50  3:45      3:45        4:05 R17        4:05      4:35  3:55      4 :15        4:05        4:10        4 :35        5:25        3:50        4 :05    4 :50  4 :00      4:05        4:10 R18        3:50      4:10  3:35      3:45        3:55        3:55        4:15        5:20        3:30        3:45      4 :45  3:40      3:40        3:50 R19        3:45      4:10  3:35      3:50        3:45        3:55        4 :15        5:00        3:25        3:40      4 :35  3:40      3:40        3:45 R2O        3:15      3:20  3:05      3:20        2:50        3:10        3:25        4:05        3:00        3:15      3:55    2:40      3:10        3:15 R21        3:15      3:25  3:00      3:10        2:55        3:10        3:25        4 :10      2:55        3:05      3:55    2:55      3:05        3:15 R22        3:05      3:20  2:50        3:00        3:00        3:10        3:15        4:10        2:50        3:00      3:55    3:00      2:50        3:05 R23        3:20      3:40  3:10      3:30        3:15        3:25        3:40        4 :30      3:10        3:30      4 :15  3:15      3:15        3:25 R24        3:25      3:40  3:10        3:30        3:15        3:25        3:35        4:30        3:10        3:25      4 :10  3:15      3:10        3:25 Surry Power Station                                                        ES-11                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Summer          Summer        Summer                    Winter                          Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                    Midweek Midweek          Weekend                                  Midweek                          Weekend                      Weekend    Midweek Weekend                                                                    Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)  (3)        (4)      (5)          (6)        (7)        (8)        (9)      (10)    (11)    (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday          Midday          Evening                Midday                            Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good              Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good  Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain            Rain Weather          Weather              Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow    Weather    Snow    Snow  Weather      Event      Impact R25        3:20      3:35  3:10      3:25      3:15        3:20        3:35        4 :30      3:05      3:20    4 :10  3:10      3:10        3:20 R26        3:05      3:05  3:00      3:00      3:00        3:00        3:05        4:00      3:00      3:00    4 :00  3:00      3:00        3:05 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27        2:55      2:55  2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:55 R28        2:55      2:55  2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4:00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:55 R29        2:50      2:50  2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:50 R30        2:50      2:50  2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4:00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:50 R31        3:15      3:25  3:00      3:10      3:00        3:10        3:20        4 :20      3:05      3:10    4 :05  3:00      3:00        3:15 R32        3:55      4:20  3:55      4 :10      3:55        3:45        4:10        4:55      3:40      4:00    4 :45  3:45      3:55        3:55 R33        4:05      4:30  3:55      4:10      4:05        4:05        4:35        5:35      3:50      4:10    4 :50  3:50      4:05        4:05 R34        3:50      4:10  3:35      3:45      3:55        3:55        4:15        5:20      3:30      3:45    4 :40  3:35      3:40        3:50 R35        3:05      3:10  2:55      3:05      2:45        3:00        3:10        3:50      2:50      2:55    3:50    2:40      2:55        3:05 R36        3:05      3:20  2:50      3:00      3:00        3:05        3:15        4:05      2:45      2:55    3:55    3:00      2:55        3:10 R37        3:05      3:15  2:45        2:55      2:55        3:05        3:15        4 :10      2:50      3:00    3:50    2:55      2:50        3:05 R38        3:25      3:40  3:10        3:30      3:15        3:25        3:45        4:35      3:10      3:30    4 :15  3:15      3:10        3:25 R39        3:20      3:35  3:10      3:25      3:15        3:20        3:35        4 :30      3:10      3:25    4 :10  3:10      3:10        3:20 R40        3:15      3:35  3:05      3:20      3:10        3:20        3:35        4:30      3:05      3:20    4 :10  3:10      3:10        3:20 R41        2:55      2:55  2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:50      2:50    3:50    2:50      2:35        2:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42        3:25      3:25  3:25        3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4:15      3:25      3:25    4 :10  3:25      3:25        3:25 R43        3:10      3:10  3:15      3:15      3:20        3:15        3:15        3:55      3:20      3:20    4 :00  3:20      3:15        3:10 R44        3:15      3:15  3:20      3:20      3:20        3:15        3:20        4:00      3:20      3:20    4 :00  3:25      3:20        3:15 R45        3:25      3:25  3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4 :05      3:25      3:25    4 :05  3:25      3:25        3:25 R46        3:25      3:25  3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4:10      3:25      3:25    4 :20  3:25      3:25        3:25 R47        3:25      3:25  3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4 :15      3:25      3:25    4 :15  3:25      3:25        3:25 R48        3:25      3:25  3:25        3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4:10      3:25      3:25    4 :10  3:25      3:25        3:25 R49        3:20      3:20  3:20      3:20      3:20        3:20        3:25        4 :05      3:25      3:25    4 :05  3:25      3:20        3:20 Surry Power Station                                                      ES-12                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer            Summer          Summer                    Winter                              Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek          Weekend                                    Midweek                            Weekend                      Weekend    Midweek Weekend                                                                        Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)    (3)          (4)        (5)          (6)        (7)          (8)        (9)        (10)      (11)  (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday            Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good              Good                    Good        Good    Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain              Rain Weather            Weather                Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow      Weather      Snow      Snow  Weather      Event      Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl        4:50      4:50  4 :45      4 :45      4:45        4:50        4 :50        6:30      4 :45      4 :45      6:30  4 :45      4:45        4:50 RO2        4:50      4:50  4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 RO3        6:05      6:55  5:40        6:30      6:10        6:10        7:05        8:25      5:30        5:55      7:25  5:40      6:00        6:15 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 ROS        4:50      4:50  4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4 :50      4:50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 ROG        4:50      4 :50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 RO7        4:50      4:50  4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4 :50      4:50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 ROS        4:50      4:50  4:50        4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 RO9        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50        6:35      4 :50      4 :50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 RlO        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R12        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R13        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4:55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R14        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 RlS        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R16        5:10      5:35  4 :55      5:10        5:05        5:05        5:35        6:40      4:55        5:10      6:40  4:55      4:55        5:10 R17        5:40      6:25  5:25        5:50        5:45        5:50        6:30        7:45      5:15        5:40      6:45  5:25      5:30        5:40 R18        6:00      6:55  5:40        6:15      6:10        6:05        6:45        8:25      5:25        5:55      7:25  5:35      6:00        6:05 R19        6:00      6:40  5:40        6:15      6:05        6:05        6:45        8:00      5:20        5:55      7:15  5:35      5:45        6:05 R2O        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R21        4:55      4:55  4 :55      5:15        4:55        4:55        5:05        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      5:00        4:55 R22        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R23        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        5:10        5:10        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R24        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        5:00        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 Surry Power Station                                                          ES-13                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Summer            Summer          Summer                    Winter                          Winter          Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                    Midweek Midweek          Weekend                                  Midweek                          Weekend                    Weekend    Midweek Weekend                                                                    Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)    (3)          (4)      (5)          (6)        (7)        (8)        (9)      (10)    (11)  (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday            Midday          Evening                Midday                            Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good              Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good  Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain              Rain Weather            Weather              Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow    Weather    Snow    Snow  Weather      Event      Impact R25        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55      6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R26        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55      6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R28        4:55      4 :55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R29        4:55      4:55  4:55        4:55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R30        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R31        4:55      4:55  4:55        4:55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R32        5:30      5:55  5:10        5:50      5:20        5:10        5:45        6:40      4:55      5:15    6:40  4:55      5:15        5:30 R33        5:55      6:20  5:35        6:05      5:55        5:50        6:40        8:00      5:20      5:50    7:00  5:20      5:40        6:00 R34        6:00      6:55  5:40        6:15      6:10        6:05        6:45        8:25      5:25      5:55    7:25  5:30      6:00        6:05 R35        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R36        5:00      5:25  4:55        5:20      5:05        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        5:00 R37        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55      6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R38        4:55      5:00  4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        5:15        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R39        4:55      5:00  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        5:00        6:40      4 :55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R40        4:55      4:55  4:55        4 :55      4 :55        4:55        5:20        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R41        4:55      4:55  4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55      6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R43        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50      6:35      4 :50      4 :50    6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 R44        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R45        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50      6:35      4 :50      4 :50    6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 R46        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R47        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50      6:35      4 :50      4 :50    6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 R48        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R49        4:50      4:50  4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50      6:35      4 :50      4 :50    6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 Surry Power Station                                                        ES-14                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer          Summer          Summer                  Winter                              Winter          Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek        Weekend                                  Midweek                            Weekend                      Weekend    Midweek Weekend                                                                        Weekend Scenario:      (1)        (2)  (3)        (4)          (5)        (6)          (7)        (8)        (9)        (10)    (11)  (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday          Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region      Good              Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain            Rain Weather            Weather                Weather    Weather      Snow        Snow      Weather        Snow    Snow  Weather      Event      Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R02        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 ROS        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R06        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R07        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 ROS        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R09        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 RlO        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R43        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R44        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R45        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R46        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R47        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R48        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 R49        2:30      2:30  2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25      2:50        2:50      3:45  2:50      2:50        2:30 Surry Power Station                                                          ES-15                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer            Summer          Summer                    Winter                            Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek          Weekend                                  Midweek                            Weekend                      Weekend    Midweek Weekend                                                                        Weekend Scenario:      (1)        (2)  (3)        (4)          (5)          (6)        (7)        (8)        (9)        (10)      (11)  (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday          Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region      Good              Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain            Rain Weather            Weather              Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow    Weather        Snow      Snow  Weather      Event      Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4 :45      4:45        4 :50 R02        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 ROS        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4 :50      4:50        6:30      4 :45      4:45      6:30  4 :45      4 :45        4:50 R06        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 R07        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4 :50      4:50        6:30      4 :45      4:45      6:30  4 :45      4 :45        4:50 ROS        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 R09        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4:50 RlO        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R43        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 R44        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4 :50      4 :50      6:30      4 :45      4:45      6:30  4 :45      4 :45        4:50 R45        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 R46        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4 :50      4:50        6:30      4 :45      4:45      6:30  4 :45      4 :45        4:50 R47        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4 :45      4:45        4 :50 R48        4 :50      4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4 :50      4:50        6:30      4 :45      4:45      6:30  4 :45      4 :45        4:50 R49        4:50        4:50  4:45      4:45        4 :45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30  4:45      4:45        4 :50 Surry Power Station                                                          ES-16                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Table 8-2. School and Pre-school Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Driver      Loading    Dist. To  Average    Travel Time          Dist. EPZ      Travel Time      ETA to Mobilization    Time    EPZ Bdry    Speed    to EPZ Bdry    ETE    Bdryto      from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility                      Time (min)    (min)      (mi)      (mph)        (min)    (hr:min) EAC(mi.)      to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School                          45          15        5.4        3.9        82        2:25      3.0              4            2:30 Sanford Elementary School                                  45          15        2.1      36.3          3        1:05      3.0              4            1:10 Warwick River Christian School                              45          15        2.5      36.3          4        1:05      3.0              4            1:10 First Baptist Church Denbigh                                45          15        1.2      40.6          2        1:05      3.0              4            1:10 BC Charles Elementary School                                45          15        1.6      28.2          3        1:05      3.0              4            1:10 Menchville High School                                      45          15        1.3      28.8          3        1:05      3.0              4            1:10 Jenkins Elementary School                                  45          15        0.8      36.4          1        1:05      3.0              4            1:10 Katherine Johnson Elementary School                        45          15        7.0        3.9        108        2:50      4.4              6            3:00 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School                        45          15        3.9      28.1          8        1:10      4.4              6            1:20 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                              45          15        5.3        3.6        88        2:30      4.4              6            2:40 David A Dutrow Elementary School                            45          15        3.6        4.8          45        1:45      4.4              6            1:55 Mary Passage Middle School                                  45          15        4.5        4.3          63        2:05      4.4              6            2:15 Stoney Run Elementary School                                45          15        3.4        8.7          24        1:25      6.7              9            1:35 Denbigh High School                                        45          15        3.1      28.3          6        1:10      6.7              9            1:20 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 45          15        1.2      33.5          2        1:05    13.2            18            1:25 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary                                45          15        1.8        3.4          32        1:35      6.7              9            1:45 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School                        45          15        1.2      33.5          2        1:05    13.2            18            1:25 Woodside High School                                        45          15        1.2      33.5          2        1:05    13.2            18            1:25 Richneck Elementary School                                  45          15        2.4        4.9          30        1:30      6.7              9            1:40 James River Elementary School                              60          15        9.3      11.4          49        2:05      6.0              8            2:15 Magruder Elementary School                                  110          15        4.4        2.4        110        3:55    23.0            31            4:30 Waller Mill Elementary School                              110          15        4.7        4.0          70        3:15    23.0            31            3:50 Bruton High School                                          110          15        2.4        3.3          44        2:50    23.0            31            3:25 Queens Lake Middle School                                  110          15        4.5        3.4          79        3:25    23.0            31            4:00 Walsingham Academy (Lower School)                          60          15        6.0        4.2          84        2:40    23.0            31            3:15 Walsingham Academy {Upper School)                          60          15        6.0        4.2          84        2:40    23.0            31            3:15 College of William and Mary                                60          15        4.5        3.5          77        2:35    23.0            31            3:10 Matthew Whaley Elementary School                            60          15        4.1        3.6          68        2:25    23.0            31            3:00 Surry Power Station                                                  ES-17                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                    Rev. 0
 
Driver      Loading      Dist. To    Average    Travel Time                  Dist. EPZ        Travel Time        ETA to Mobilization      Time      EPZ Bdry      Speed      to EPZ Bdry        ETE        Bdryto        from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility                                  Time (min)      (min)        (mi)      (mph)          (min)      (hr:min)    EAC (mi.)        to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
Berkeley Middle School                                                    60            15          3.7        16.9            13          1:30          23.8              32            2:05 James Blair Middle School                                                  60            15          2.4        4.5            32          1:50          23.8              32            2:25 Laurel Lane Elementary School                                              60            15          5.2        45.0              7          1:25            3.0              4              1:30 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School                                        60            15          6.0        45.0              8          1:25            3.0              4              1:30 DJ Montague Elementary School                                              60            15          0.5        7.7            4          1:20            3.2              4              1:25 Jamestown High School                                                      60            15          5.9        37.9              9          1:25            3.0              4              1:30 Providence Classical School                                                60            15          5.7        38.2              9          1:25            3.0              4              1:30 Matoaka Elementary School                                                  60            15          3.9        2.5            93          2:50            3.2              4              2:55 School Maximum for EPZ:          3:55                  School Maximum:          4:30 School Average for EPZ:        1:55                      School Average:        2:10 DAY CARE CENTERS AND DAY CAMPS 2
Sanford School Age Program                                                45            15          2.1        36.3            4          1:05            3.0              4              1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Center                                            45            15          2.4        33.5            4          1:05            6.7                9            1:15 Denbigh Head Start Center                                                  45            15          2.4        33.5            4          1:05            6.7                9            1:15 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center                                              45            15          2.4        33.4            4          1:05            6.7                9            1:15 B.C. Charles School Age Program                                            45            15          0.5        38.9              1          1:05            3.0              4              1:10 Jenkins School Age Program                                                45            15          0.8        36.4              1          1:05            3.0              4              1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program                                      45            15          4.8        3.5            84          2:25          4.4                6            2:35 Nelson School Age Program                                                  45            15          3.9        28.1              8          1:10          4.4                6            1:20 Mary Passage School Age Program                                            45            15          4.5        4.3            63          2:05          4.4                6            2:15 Epes School Age Program                                                    45            15          3.4        8.7            24          1:25            6.7                9            1:35 Mcintosh School Age Program                                                45            15          1.8        3.4            32          1:35            6.7                9            1:45 Greenwood School Age Program                                              45            15          0.7        31.0              1          1:05          13.2              18            1:25 Richneck School Age Program                                                45            15          2.4        4.9            30          1:30            6.7                9            1:40 York County Head Start                                                    110          15          5.3        2.9            111          4:00          23.0              31            4:35 4-H Camp                                                                  60            15          7.2        2.5            169          4:05            3.2              4              4:10 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ:              4:05        Day Care/Camp Maximum:              4:35 Day Care/Day Camp Average for EPZ:            1:45            Day Care/Camp Average:          1:55 2 It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation . See Table E-2 in Appendix E for a full list of day care centers in the EPZ.
Surry Power Station                                                                    ES-18                                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                    Rev. 0
 
Table 8-5. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather One-Wave                                                                    Two-Wave Route                                                                    Route Driver            Route                  Travel    Pickup                              Travel          Driver    Travel    Pickup Route    Number      Mobilization        Length        Speed      Time      Time      ETE      Distance to    Time to  Unload  Rest    Time        Time      ETE Number3  of Buses    Time(min)          (miles)      (mph)      (min)    (min)    (hr:min)    EAC (miles)  EAC(min)    (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 1          2            150              9.3        44.9        12        30      3:15          4.3            6        5    10        31          30      4:40 2          1            150              10.7        45.0        14        30      3:15          4.3            6        5    10        34          30      4:40 3          1            150              19.7        45.0        26        30      3:30          4.3            6        5    10        58          30      5:20 4          1            150              15.3        44.0        21        30      3:25          3.9          5        5    10        46          30      5:05 5          2            150              13.1        42.8        18        30      3:20          12.5          17        5    10        52          30      5:15 6          1            150              24.3        45.0        32        30      3:35          3.3          4        5    10        69          30      5:35 7          1            150              12.0        36.1        20        30      3:20          4.2            6        5    10        42          30      4:55 8          1            150              15.0        45.0        20        30      3:20          2.0          3        5    10        43          30      4:55 9          1            150              19.8        45.0        26        30      3:30          3.4          5        5    10        58          30      5:20 10          1            150              13.3        45.0        18        30      3:20          3.3          4        5    10        39          30      4:50 11          1            150              17.3        27.6        38        30      3:40          3.4          5        5    10        74          30      5:45 12          1            150              9.1        41.6        13        30      3:15          2.0          3        5    10        28          30      4:35 13          2            150              17.2          7.6        136        30      5:20          3.3          4        5    10        so          30      7:00 14          1            150              21.4          9.8        132        30      5:15          3.3          4        5    10        61          30      7:05 15          1            150              12.1        29.4        25        30      3:25          3.3          4        5    10        41          30      4:55 16          1            150              5.6          13.2        26        30      3:30          3.3          4        5    10        30          30      4:50 17          1            150              4.4          6.5        41        30      3:45          27.4          36        5    10        48          30      5:55 18          1            150              3.6        10.1        22        30      3:25          27.3          36        5    10        47          30      5:35 19          1            150              4.2          6.8        37        30      3:40          27.3          36        5    10        48          30      5:50 20          1            150              5.2          6.0        52        30      3:55          27.3          36        5    10        51          30      6:10 21          1            150              6.2          4.5        82        30      4:25          27.3          36        5    10        53          30      6:40 22          3            150              13.3          9.8        82        30      4:25          2.5          3        5    10        38          30      5:55 23          3            150              20.4        14.2        87        30      4:30          5.7          8        5    10        63          30      6:30 24          3            150              11.4          8.6        80        30      4:20          2.5          3        5    10        34          30      5:45 3 See Table 10-1 for a description of the bus routes.
Surry Power Station                                                              ES-19                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
One-Wave                                                          Two-Wave Route                                                            Route Driver    Route          Travel      Pickup                        Travel        Driver    Travel    Pickup Route  Number    Mobilization Length  Speed    Time        Time    ETE    Distance to  Time to Unload  Rest    Time        Time      ETE Number3  of Buses    Time(min)  (miles) (mph)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC(min)  (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 25        4          150      10.8    9.1      72        30      4:15      2.5        3      5    10        32          30      5:35 26        8          150      17.6  10.4      101        30      4:45      2.5        3      5    10        54          30      6:30 27        2          150      11.2  36.2      19          30      3:20      6.0        8      5    10        38          30      4:55 28        2          150      10.5  38.5      16          30      3:20      6.0        8      5    10        36          30      4:50 29        2          150      10.0  36.2      17          30      3:20      6.2        8      5    10        35          30      4:50 30        2          150      6.8    6.7      61        30      4:05      2.9        4      5    10        27          30      5:25 31        2          150      6.2    5.4      69        30      4:10      6.2        8      5    10        27          30      5:30 32        1          150      8.1    6.8      71        30      4:15      6.2        8      5    10        31          30      5:40 33        1          150      7.0    5.6      75        30      4:15      6.2        8      5    10        27          30      5:35 34        1          150      11.7    8.7      80          30      4:20      6.2        8      5    10        41          30      5:55 35        1          150      9.2    8.5      65        30      4:05      2.9        4      5    10        35          30      5:30 36        1          150      4.9    5.3      56          30      4:00      6.2        8      5    10        25          30      5:20 37        1          150      7.6    7.3      62        30      4:05      6.2        8      5    10        33          30      5:35 38        1          150      6.5    9.7      41          30      3:45      6.2        8      5    10        31          30      5:10 39        1          150      7.9    8.9      53          30      3:55      6.2        8      5    10        36          30      5:25 40        1          150      3.6    9.5      23        30      3:25      2.9        4      5    10        16          30      4:30 41        1          150      8.9    7.4      72          30      4:15      6.2        8      5    10        34          30      5:45 42        1          150      5.6    4.3        79        30      4:20      2.9        4      5    10        22          30      5:35 43        1          150      3.4    23.9        9        30      3:10      2.8        4      5    10        15          30      4:15 44        1          150      5.4    4.6        69        30      4:10      6.2        8      5    10        25          30      5:30 45        1          150      5.8    5.0      70          30      4:10      6.2        8      5    10        27          30      5:30 46        1          150      4.1    6.9      36        30      3:40      2.8        4      5    10        18          30      4:50 Maximum ETE:    5:20                                              MaximumETE:      7:05 Average ETE:  3:55                                                Average ETE:  5:30 Surry Power Station                                            ES-20                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Table 8-8. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Travel Time Loading Rate                                                to EPZ Mobilization        (min per              Total Loading Dist. To EPZ      Boundary      ETE Medical Facility              Patient            (min)          person)      People    Time (min)    Bdry (mi)            (min)    (hr:min)
Ambulatory                  180              1            15          15          5.5              25        3:40 McDonald Army Health Center              Wheelchair bound            180              5            10          50          5.5              11        4:05 Bedridden                  180              15            3          30          5.5              17        3:50 Ambulatory                  180              1            45          30          0.6                2        3:35 Mennowood Retirement Community          Wheelchair bound            180              5            29          60          0.6                1        4:05 Bedridden                  180              15            9          30          0.6                2        3:35 Ambulatory                  180              1            55          30          1.3              20        3:50 Charter Senior living of Newport News    Wheelchair bound            180              5            35          60          1.3                3        4:05 Bedridden                  180              15            11          30          1.3              20        3:50 Ambulatory                  180              1            2          2          7.2              52        3:55 Morningside of Williamsburg              Wheelchair bound            180              5            30          60          7.2              14        4:15 Bedridden                  180              15            30          30          7.2              34        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            30          30          8.4              35        4:05 Colonial Manor Senior Community          Wheelchair bound            180              5            30          60          8.4              16        4:20 Bedridden                  180              15            4          30          8.4              35        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            75          30          4.3              45        4:15 Commonwealth Senior living              Wheelchair bound            180              5            25          60          4.3              19        4:20 Bedridden                  180              15            2          30          4.3              45        4:15 Ambulatory                  180              1          146          30          3.1              31        4:05 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound            180              5            6          30          3.1              31        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            20          20          8.6              44        4:05 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            180              5            13          60          8.6              19        4:20 Bedridden                  180              15            4          30          8.6              37        4:10 Wheelchair bound            180              5          130          60          2.8              13        4:15 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden                  180              15            20          30          2.8              31        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            46          30          4.6              31        4:05 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            180              5            4          20          4.6              39        4:00 Greenfield Senior living of Williamsburg Ambulatory                  180              1            65          30          0.8              16        3:50 Surry Power Station                                            ES-21                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Travel Time Loading Rate                                          to EPZ Mobilization    (min per          Total Loading Dist. To EPZ      Boundary      ETE Medical Facility                      Patient    (min)          person)  People  Time (min)    Bdry (mi)            (min)    (hr:min)
Wheelchair bound    180              5        10        50          0.8              11        4:05 Ambulatory          180              1        90        30          6.1              36        4:10 Williamsburg Landing                            Wheelchair bound    180              5        33        60          6.1              18        4:20 Bedridden          180              15        5        30          6.1              36        4:10 Ambulatory          180              1      241        30          2.6              30        4:00 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg                  Wheelchair bound    180              5        34        60          2.6              12        4:15 Bedridden          180              15        9        30          2.6              30        4:00 Ambulatory          180              1        11        11          5.1              45        4:00 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    180              5        22        60          5.1              14        4:15 Ambulatory          180              1        58        30          3.5              31        4:05 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound    180              5        20        60          3.5              12        4:15 Ambulatory          180              1      215        30          2.8              32        4:05 Eastern State Hospital                          Wheelchair bound    180              5        20        60          2.8                13      4:15 Bedridden          180              15        30        30          2.8              32        4:05 Ambulatory          180              1        28        28          0.5              24        3:55 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place                  Wheelchair bound    180              5        18        60          0.5              10        4:10 Bedridden          180              15        6        30          0.5              24        3:55 Ambulatory          180              1        5          5          8.4              110      4:55 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound    180              5        6        30          8.4              89        5:00 Wheelchair bound    180              5        43        60          8.4              69        5:10 Consulate Health Care Bedridden          180              15        44        30          8.4              89        5:00 Ambulatory          180              1      374        30          5.5              87        5:00 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    180              5        50        60          5.5              67        5:10 Bedridden          180              15        16        30          5.5              87        5:00 Maximum ETE:    5:10 Average ETE:  4:15 Surry Power Station                                            ES-22                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Legend Gl SPS PAZ 1.,.-:, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Figure 6-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station                                        ES-23                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.a
 
S II rry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Evac uate
              '-- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
              - - Wind Sector Boundary                                          2.5 Figure H-11. Region Rll Surry Power Station                                                ES-24              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev. O
 
1    INTRODUCTION This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Surry Power Station (SPS), located in Surry County, Virginia. This ETE study provides Dominion Energy, state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action Decision-making.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by federal governmental agencies. Most important of these are:
* Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 {10CFRS0), Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, NRC, 2011.
* Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, February 2021.
* FEMA, "Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual" (FEMA P-1028),
December 2019.
The work effort reported herein was supported and guided by Dominion Energy and local stakeholders who contributed suggestions, critiques, and the local knowledge base required.
Table 1-1 presents a summary of stakeholders and interactions.
1.1    Overview of the ETE Process The following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence:
: 1. Information Gathering:
: a. Defined the scope of work in discussions with representatives from Dominion Energy.
: b. Attended a project kick-off meeting with personnel from Dominion Energy, Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the City of Williamsburg, the City of Newport News, Surry County, James City County, York County, and Isle of Wight County to discuss methodology, project assumptions and to identify issues to be addressed and resources available.
: c. Conducted a detailed field survey of the highway system and of area traffic conditions within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and Shadow Region.
: d. Reviewed existing state and city/county emergency plans.
: e. Conducted an online demographic survey of EPZ residents (see Appendix F).
: f. Obtained demographic data from the 2020 Census (see Section 3.1).
: g. Conducted a data collection effort to identify and describe special facilities (i.e.,
schools, day care centers, medical facilities), major employers, access and/or Surry Power Station                              1-1                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
functional needs population, transportation resources available, the special event, and other important information.
: 2. Estimated distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required by various population groups (permanent residents, employees, and transients) to prepare (mobilize) for the evacuation trip. These estimates are primarily based upon the random sample online demographic survey.
: 3. Defined Evacuation Scenarios. These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, in trip generation distribution and in highway capacities, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.
: 4. Reviewed the existing traffic management plan to be implemented by local and state police in the event of an incident at the plant. Traffic and access control are applied at specified Traffic Control Points {TCPs) and Access Control Points {ACPs) located within the study area. See Section 9 and Appendix G.
: 5. Used existing Protective Action Zones (PAZs) to define Evacuation Regions. The EPZ is partitioned into 30 PAZs along jurisdictional and geographic boundaries. "Regions" are groups of contiguous PAZs for which ETE are calculated. The configurations of these Regions reflect wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area. Each Region, other than those that approximate circular areas, approximates a "key-hole section" within the EPZ as recommended by NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
: 6. Estimated demand for transit services for persons at schools, day care centers (operated by schools), medical facilities, correctional facilities, transit-dependent persons at home, and those with access and/or functional needs.
: 7. Prepared the input streams for the DYNEV II System which computes ETE (see Appendices B and C).
: a. Estimated the evacuation traffic demand, based on the available information derived from Census data, and from data provided by city/county and state agencies, Dominion Energy and from the demographic survey.
: b. Applied the procedures specified in the 2016 Highway Capacity Manual {HCM 2016 1) to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes.
: c. Updated the link-node representation of the evacuation network, which is used as the basis for the computer analysis that calculates the ETE.
: d. Calculated the evacuating traffic demand for each Region and for each Scenario.
: e. Specified selected candidate destinations for each "origin" (location of each "source" where evacuation trips are generated over the mobilization time) to 1 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2010.
Surry Power Station                                        1-2                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                            Rev.O
 
support evacuation travel consistent with outbound movement relative to the location of the plant.
: 8. Executed the DYNEV II model to determine optimal evacuation routing and compute ETE for all residents, transients and employees ("general population") with access to private vehicles. Generated a complete set of ETE for all specified Regions and Scenarios.
: 9. Documented ETE in formats in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
: 10. Calculated the ETE for all transit activities including those for special facilities (schools, day care centers (operated by schools), medical facilities, and correctional facilities), for the transit-dependent population and for the access and/or functional needs population.
1.2    The Surry Power Station Location The Surry Power Station is located on the southern bank of the James River in Surry County, in southeastern Virginia. The site is approximately 45 miles northwest of Virginia Beach. The EPZ consists of parts of Surry, Isle of Wight, James City and York Counties and the Cities of Newport News and Williamsburg. Figure 1-1 displays the area surrounding the SPS. This map identifies the communities in the area and the major roads.
1.3    Preliminary Activities These activities are described below.
Field Surveys of the Highway Network In February 2021, KLD personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and the Shadow Region which consists of the area between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant. The characteristics of each section of highway were recorded.
These characteristics are shown in Table 1-2.
Video and audio recording equipment were used to capture a permanent record of the highway infrastructure. No attempt was made to meticulously measure such attributes as lane width and shoulder width; estimates of these measures based on visual observation and recorded images were considered appropriate for the purpose of estimating the capacity of highway sections. For example, Exhibit 15-7 in the HCM 2016 indicates that a reduction in lane width from 12 feet (the "base" value) to 10 feet can reduce free flow speed (FFS) by 1.1 mph - not a material difference - for two-lane highways. Exhibit 15-46 in the HCM 2016 shows little sensitivity for the estimates of Service Volumes at Level of Service (LOS) E (near capacity), with respect to FFS, for two-lane highways.
The data from the audio and video recordings were used to create detailed geographic information systems (GIS) shapefiles and databases of the roadway characteristics and of the traffic control devices observed during the road survey; this information was referenced while preparing the input stream for the DYNEV II System. Roadway types were assigned based on the following criteria:
Surry Power Station                              1-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
* Freeway: limited access highway, 2 or more lanes in each direction, high free flow speeds
* Freeway Ramp: ramp on to or off of a limited access highway
* Major Arterial: 3 or more lanes in each direction
* Minor Arterial: 2 lanes in each direction
* Collector: single lane in each direction
* Local Roadway: single lane in each direction, local road with low free flow speeds As documented on page 15-6 of the HCM 2016, the capacity of a two-lane highway is 1,700 passenger cars per hour in one direction. For freeway sections, a value of 2,250 vehicles per hour per lane is assigned, as per Exhibit 12-37 of the HCM 2016. The road survey has identified several segments which are characterized by adverse geometrics on two-lane highways which are reflected in reduced values for both capacity and speed. These estimates are consistent with the service volumes for LOS E presented in HCM 2016 Exhibit 15-46. Link capacity is an input to DYNEV II which computes the ETE. Further discussion of roadway capacity is provided in Section 4 of this report.
Traffic signals are either pre-timed (signal timings are fixed over time and do not change with the traffic volume on competing approaches) or are actuated (signal timings vary over time based on the changing traffic volumes on competing approaches). Actuated signals require detectors to provide the traffic data used by the signal controller to adjust the signal timings.
These detectors are typically magnetic loops in the roadway, or video cameras mounted on the signal masts and pointed toward the intersection approaches. If detectors were observed on the approaches to a signalized intersection during the road survey, detailed signal timings were not collected as the timings vary with traffic volume. TCPs and ACPs at locations which have control devices are represented as actuated signals in the DYNEV II system.
If no detectors were observed, the signal control at the intersection was considered pre-timed, and detailed signal timings were gathered for several signal cycles. These signal timings were input to the DYNEV II system used to compute ETE, as per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 guidance.
Figure 1-2 presents the link-node analysis network that was constructed to model the evacuation roadway network in the EPZ and Shadow Region. The directional arrows on the links and the node numbers have been removed from Figure 1-2 to clarify the figure. The detailed figures provided in Appendix K depict the analysis network with directional arrows shown and node numbers provided. The observations made during the field survey and aerial imagery were used to calibrate the analysis network.
Demographic Survey An online demographic survey was performed in 2021 to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F presents the survey instrument, the procedures used and tabulations of data compiled from the survey returns.
These data were utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy, to estimate the number of evacuating vehicles during an evacuation, and to estimate elements of the mobilization Surry Power Station                              1-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
process. This database was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-dependent residents.
Computing the Evacuation Time Estimates The overall study procedure is outlined in Appendix D. Demographic data were obtained from several sources, as detailed later in this report. These data were analyzed and converted into vehicle demand data. The vehicle demand was loaded onto appropriate "source" links of the analysis network using GIS mapping software. The DYNEV II model was then used to compute ETE for all Regions and Scenarios.
Analytical Tools The DYNEV II System that was employed for this study is comprised of several integrated computer models. One of these is the DYNEV {DYnamic Network Evacuation) macroscopic simulation model, a new version of the IDYNEV model that was developed by KLD under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
DYNEV II consists of four sub-models:
* A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see Appendix C).
* A Trip Distribution (TD), model that assigns a set of candidate destination (D) nodes for each "origin" {O) located within the analysis network, where evacuation trips are "generated" over time. This establishes a set of O-D tables.
* A Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA), model which assigns trips to paths of travel (routes) which satisfy the O-D tables, over time. The TD and DTA models are integrated to form the DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) model, as described in Appendix B.
* A Myopic Traffic Diversion model which diverts traffic to avoid intense, local congestion, if possible.
Another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES {UNlfied Iransportation gngineering ~ystem) was used to expedite data entry and to automate the production of output tables.
The dynamics of traffic flow over the network are graphically animated using the software product, EVAN (Evacuation ANimator), developed by KLD. EVAN is GIS based, and displays statistics output by the DYNEV II System, such as LOS, vehicles discharged, average speed, and percent of vehicles evacuated. The use of a GIS framework enables the user to zoom in on areas of congestion and query road name, town name and other geographical information.
The procedure for applying the DYNEV II System within the framework of developing ETE is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms.
For the reader interested in an evaluation of the original model, 1-DYNEV, the following references are suggested:
* NUREG/CR-4873 - "Benchmark Study of the 1-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code Surry Power Station                              1-5                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
* NUREG/CR-4874 - The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to:
* Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ.
* Restrict movement toward the plant to the extent practicable and disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways.
* Move traffic in directions that are generally outbound, relative to the location of the plant.
DYNEV II provides a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. This description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures that are designed to represent the behavioral responses of evacuees. The effects of these countermeasures may then be tested with the model.
1.4    Comparison with Prior ETE Study Table 1-3 presents a comparison of this ETE study with the 2012 study (KLD TR - 528, dated December 2012). The goth percentile ETE for the full EPZ (Region R03) for Scenario 6 (winter, midweek, midday with good weather), Scenario 7 (winter, midweek, midday with rain/light snow), and Scenario 8 (winter, midweek, midday with heavy snow) increased by 15 minutes for good weather, 20 minutes for rain, and 55 minutes for heavy snow, when compared with the previous ETE study. The goth percentile ETE for a Scenario 3 (summer, weekend, midday with good weather) evacuation of Region R03 decreased by 10 minutes, while a Scenario 4 (summer, weekend, midday with rain) evacuation decreased by 5 minutes when compared with the previous ETE study.
The 100th percentile ETE for the full EPZ for Scenario 6 (winter, midweek, midday with good weather), Scenario 7 (winter, midweek, midday with rain/light snow), and Scenario 8 (winter, midweek, midday with heavy snow) increased by 15 minutes for good weather, 55 minutes for rain/light snow, and 1 hour and 30 minutes for heavy snow, when compared with the previous ETE study. For Scenario 3 (summer, weekend, midday with good weather), Scenario 4 (summer, weekend, midday with rain weather), the 100th percentile ETE decreased by 15 minutes for good weather, and 5 minutes for rain when compared with the previous ETE study.
The major factors contributing to the differences between the ETE values obtained in this study and those of the previous study can be summarized as follows:
* The permanent resident population within the EPZ has increased by 6.4%. This population increase results in additional permanent resident evacuating vehicles, which can increase the ETE.
* The permanent resident population in the Shadow Region increased by 7.8%. This population increase results in significantly more vehicles evacuating within the Shadow Surry Power Station                              1-6                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Region, which reduces the available roadway capacity for EPZ evacuees, which can increase the ETE.
* The number of resident vehicles increased by 18.7% compared to previous ETE study, due to the increase in resident population (discussed above) and due to the significant decrease in vehicle occupancy (2.08 persons per vehicle in 2012 versus 1.76 persons per vehicle in the current study) based on the results of the demographic survey. More evacuating vehicles can increase ETE.
* The transient population decreased by 10.9%, while the number of transient vehicles decreased by 15.3%, which can decrease the ETE for summer scenarios. This reduction in transients is primarily the result of increased efforts to avoid double counting population.
* Roadway capacity reductions for heavy snow cases increased from 20% to 25% based on the new NRC guidance. As a result, roadways process less vehicles than previously assumed during heavy snow cases and could result in longer ETE.
* The time to mobilize 90% of residents with commuters in the 2012 study was 180 minutes versus 210 minutes in this study. Given the traffic congestion in this EPZ (see Section 7.3), the 90th percentile ETE are dictated by congestion. The longer time to mobilize 90% of residents with commuters could increase ETE.
* Interstate 64 was widened to 3 lanes in each direction for most of the study area over the last decade. The additional lane on 1-64 increases the capacity on this evacuation route by 50% since the last study, which could decrease ETE.
The significant increase (18. 7%) in permanent resident evacuating vehicles is largely responsible for the increases in ETE in this study. The potential increase in ETE was offset somewhat by the significant increase in capacity along 1-64 due to the widening project in the last decade. The ETE for summer scenarios decreased slightly as the combination of reduced transient vehicles and increased capacity along 1-64 virtually offset the significant increase in permanent resident evacuating vehicles.
Surry Power Station                            1-7                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction Stakeholder                                Nature of Stakeholder Interaction Attended kick-off meeting to define project methodology and data requirements. Provided recent SPS employee data. Coordinated information exchange with offsite response organizations.
Dominion Energy                                      Reviewed and approved all project assumptions and draft report. Engaged in the ETE development and was informed of the study results. Attended "final" meeting with Dominion Energy personnel where the ETE study results were presented .
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)                                              Attended kick-off meeting to discuss the project Virginia Department of Emergency                    methodology, key project assumptions and to define Management (VDEM)                                    data needs. Provided existing emergency plans, including traffic and access control points and other City of Williamsburg information critical to the ETE study. Reviewed and City of Newport News                                approved project assumptions. Engaged in the ETE Surry County                                        development and informed of the study results.
Provided data for special facilities in the EPZ.
James City County Attended "final" meeting with ORO personnel where York County                                          the ETE study results were presented .
Isle of Wight County Table 1-2. Highway Characteristics
* Number of lanes
* Posted speed
* Lane width
* Actual free speed
* Shoulder type & width
* Abutting land use
* Interchange geometries
* Control devices
* Lane channelization & queuing
* Intersection configuration (including capacity (including turn bays/lanes)            roundabouts where applicable)
* Geometrics: curves, grades (>4%)
* Traffic signal type
* Unusual characteristics: Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, toll booths, etc.
Surry Power Station                                  1-8                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                Rev.O
 
Table 1-3. ETE Study Comparisons Topic                          2012 ETE Study                                Current ETE Study ArcGIS Software using 2010 US Census          ArcGIS Software using 2020 US Census blocks; area ratio method used.              blocks; area ratio method used.
Resident Population Population = 152,677                          Population = 162,426 Basis Vehicles= 73,983                              Vehicles= 87,847 2.47 persons/household, 1.19 evacuating      2.58 persons/household, 1.47 evacuating Resident Population vehicles/household yielding: 2.08            vehicles/household yielding: 1. 76 Vehicle Occupancy persons/vehicle.                              persons/vehicle Employee estimates based on                  Employee estimates based on information information provided about major              provided by Dominion Energy supplemented employers in EPZ, supplemented by            by Census OnTheMap data. 1.05 employees phone calls to employer. 1.08 employees      per vehicle based on demographic survey Employees per vehicle based on telephone survey        results.
results.
Employees = 18,093                            Employees = 18,015 Vehicles= 16,749                              Vehicles= 17,425 Estimates based upon U.S. Census data        Estimates based upon U.S. Census data and and the results of the telephone survey.      the results of the demographic survey.
Transit-Dependent A total of 3,480 people who do not have      A total of 1,493 people who do not have Population access to a vehicle, requiring 122 buses      access to a vehicle, requiring 70 buses to to evacuate.                                  evacuate.
348 access and/or functional needs            350 access and/or functional needs persons Access and/or persons needed special transportation to      require special transportation to evacuate.
Functional Needs evacuate (253 require a bus, 95 require a    25 buses and 16 wheelchair buses are Population wheelchair-accessible vehicle).              required to evacuate this population .
Transient estimates based upon data Transient estimates based upon provided by the cities/counties within the information provided about transient EPZ. When data could not be provided, the attractions in EPZ, supplemented by number of transient vehicles was estimated observations of the facilities during the based on the parking lot capacity or Transient Population      road survey and internet research accommodation capacity obtained from aerial imagery and facility websites.
Transients = 69,342 Transients= 61,790 Vehicles = 29,044 Vehicles = 24,603 Surry Power Station                                  1-9                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.O
 
Topic                          2012 ETE Study                          Current ETE Study Population based on data provided by the Special facility population based on cities/counties within the EPZ, supplemented information provided by each city/county by internet searches where data was not within the EPZ.
provided.
Medical Facility Population                Current census = 1,588 Current Census = 2,282 Buses Required= 24                      Buses Required = 46 Wheelchair Bus Required = 24            Wheelchair Buses Required= 56 Ambulances Required = 56                Ambulances Required= 99 Enrollment data was provided by city/county School population based on information emergency management agencies, and provided by each city/county within the internet searches where data was not EPZ.
School Population                                                  provided.
School enrollment= 29,816                School enrollment = 28,564 Buses required = 433                    Buses required : 388 Voluntary evacuation 20% of the population within the EPZ,    20% of the population within the EPZ, but from within EPZ in but not within the Evacuation Region    not within the Evacuation Region (see Figure areas outside region to (see Figure 2-1)                        2-1) be evacuated 20% of people outside of the EPZ within 20% of people outside of the EPZ within the the Shadow Region Shadow Region (see Figure 7-2)
Shadow                    (see Figure 7-2)
Evacuation/Population 20% Population = 27,930 20% Population = 25,903 20% Vehicles= 15,382 20% Vehicles= 12,466 External (Through)        Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Traffic                    Vehicles= 14,256                        Vehicles= 15,472 Network Size              2,157 links; 1,581 nodes                2,688 links; 2,005 nodes Field surveys conducted in February      Field surveys conducted in February 2021.
Roadway Geometric          2012. Roads and intersections were      Roads and intersections were video Data                      video archived.                          archived. Road capacities based on HCM Road capacities based on 2010 HCM.      2016.
Direct evacuation to designated          Direct evacuation to designated Evacuation School Evacuation Evacuation Assembly Centers.            Assembly Centers.
50% of transit-dependent persons will    69% of transit-dependent persons will Ridesharing                evacuate with a neighbor or friend based evacuate with a neighbor or friend based on on federal guidance.                    the results of the demographic survey.
Surry Power Station                                1-10                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.0
 
Topic                          2012 ETE Study                              Current ETE Study Based on residential telephone survey of    Based on residential demographic survey of specific pre-trip mobilization activities:  specific pre-trip mobilization activities :
Residents with commuters returning          Residents with commuters returning leave leave between 30 and 285 minutes .          between 30 and 285 minutes.
Residents without commuters returning Trip Generation for        Residents without commuters returning leave between 15 and 240 minutes.
Evacuation                leave between 0 and 240 minutes.
Employees and transients leave between 0 Employees and transients leave between      and 75 minutes.
0 and 105 minutes.
All times measured from the Advisory to All times measured from the Advisory to    Evacuate.
Evacuate .
Good, Rain/Light Snow, or Heavy Snow. The Normal, Rain, or Snow. The capacity and    capacity and free flow speed of all links in free flow speed of all links in the network the network are reduced by 10% in the event Weather are reduced by 10% in the event of rain    of rain and light snow. During "heavy snow",
and 20% for snow.                          speed and capacity are reduced by 15% and 25%, respectively.
Modeling                  DYNEV II System -Version 4.0.11.0          DYNEV II System - Version 4.0.21.0 Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, Newport News Fall Festival of Folklife.
and Colonial Williamsburg at capacity on a Special Events            Special Event Population = 26,250 summer weekend.
additional transients Special Event Population = 19,855 additional transients, 6,600 vehicles.
41 Regions (central sector wind direction  49 Regions (central sector wind direction and each adjacent sector technique          and each adjacent sector technique used)
Evacuation Cases used) and 14 Scenarios producing 574        and 14 Scenarios producing 686 unique unique cases.                              cases.
ETE reported for 90th and 100th percentile  ETE reported for 90th and 100th percentile Evacuation Time population. Results presented by Region    population. Results presented by Region and Estimates Reporting and Scenario.                              Scenario.
Winter Weekday Midday,                      Winter Weekday Midday, Good Weather= 3:40                          Good Weather= 3:55 Evacuation Time            Rain/Light Snow : 4:00                      Rain/Light Snow: 4:20 Estimates for the          Heavy Snow: 4:20                            Heavy Snow: 5:15 Entire EPZ (Region R03), 90th Percentile      Summer Weekend, Midday,                    Summer Weekend, Midday, Good Weather= 3:50                          Good Weather= 3:40 Rain : 4:05                                Rain : 4:00 Surry Power Station                                  1-11                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. 0
 
Topic                        2012 ETE Study                  Current ETE Study Winter Weekday Midday,          Winter Weekday Midday, Good Weather= 5:55              Good Weather= 6:10 Evacuation Time            Rain/Light Snow: 6:10            Rain/Light Snow: 7:05 Estimates for the          Heavy Snow: 6:55                Heavy Snow: 8:25 Entire EPZ (Region R03), 100th Percentile    Summer Weekend, Midday,          Summer Weekend, Midday, Good Weather= 5:55              Good Weather= 5:40 Rain: 6:35                      Rain: 6:30 Surry Power Station                              1-12                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                Rev.O
 
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                                            /
Chic~~;;,miny    /      19 Cape
                                      /
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                                    /    614 I
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Atlantic Ocean Legend
* SPS                    Date:8/5/2021
                '- _,, 2, 5, 10 M ile Rings Copyright: ESRI Data and Maps 2020 KlDEngineering,Oomiinion www.census.gov 10 Miles I Figure 1-1. SPS Location Surry Power Station                                                                        1-13                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson County Legend SPS Node
              - - link G1  PAZ Shadow Region Figure 1-2. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network Surry Power Station                                  1-14                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
2      STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS This section presents the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of the ETE.
2.1        Data Estimates Assumptions
: 1. Permanent resident population estimates are based upon 2020 U.S. Census population from the Census Bureau website 1 . A methodology, referred to as the "area ratio method", is employed to estimate the population within portions of census blocks that are divided by PAZ boundaries. It is assumed that the population is evenly distributed across a census block in order to employ the area ratio method (See Section 3.1).
: 2. Federal guidance (NUREG/CR-7002, Rev 1) defines a major employer as an employer with 200 or more employees working a single shift. The 2019 Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC) provided by the U.S. Census Bureau's OnTheMap Census analysis tooI 2 was used to estimate employees commuting into the EPZ. The data was extrapolated to 2020 using the short-term employment growth projection for the State of Virginia 3 (See Section 3.4).
: 3. Population estimates at transient and special facilities are based upon data received from the city/county emergency management agencies and supplemented by internet searches where data is missing.
: 4. The relationship between the permanent resident population and evacuating vehicles is developed from the demographic survey. Average values of 2.58 persons per household and 1.47 evacuating vehicles per household are used. See Appendix F.
: 5. Employee vehicle occupancies for major employers is based on the results of the demographic survey. 1.05 employees per vehicle are used in the study. In addition, it is assumed there are two people per carpool, on average.
: 6. The maximum bus speed assumed within the EPZ is 45 mph based on Virginia state law 4 for buses and average posted speed limits on major roadways within the EPZ.
: 7. Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys performed in 2021 (verified by aerial imagery), and the application of the Highway Capacity Manual 2016.
2.2        Methodological Assumptions
: 1. The Planning Basis Assumption for the calculation of ETE is a rapidly escalating accident that requires evacuation, and includes the following 5 (as per NRC guidance):
1 www.census.gov 2  http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/ OnTheMap is an interactive map displaying workplace and residential distributions by user-defined geographies at census block level detail. It also reports the work characteristics detail on age, and earnings industry groups.
3 https://virginiaworks.com/download-center 4https://law .lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title46.2/chapter8/section46.2-871 /#:~:text=The%20maximum%20speed%20limit%20for, is%20more%20than %2055%20miles 5 We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to:
Surry Power Station                                                  2-1                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
: a. The Advisory to Evacuate {ATE) is announced coincident with siren notification.
: b. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after siren notification.
: c. ETE are measured relative to the ATE.
: 2. The center-point of the plant will be located at the geometric center of the containment buildings for the two reactors at 37° 9' 57.96" N, 76° 41' 51.72" W.
: 3. The DYNEV 11 6 system is used to compute ETE in this study.
: 4. Evacuees will drive safely, travel radially away from the plant to the extent practicable given the highway network, and obey all traffic control devices and traffic guides. All major evacuation routes are used in the analysis.
: 5. The existing EPZ and PAZ boundaries will be used. See Figure 3-1.
: 6. The Shadow Region extends to 15 miles radially from the plant, or approximately 5 miles radially beyond the EPZ boundary, as per NRC guidance. See Figure 7-2.
: 7. One hundred {100%) of people within the impacted "keyhole" will evacuate. Twenty percent {20%) of the population within the Shadow Region and within PAZs in the EPZ that are not advised to evacuate will voluntarily evacuate, as shown in Figure 2-1, as per NRC guidance. Sensitivity studies explore the effect on ETE of increasing the percentage of voluntary evacuees in the Shadow Region (see Appendix M).
: 8. Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuating vehicles per household, and mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as that of the permanent resident population within the EPZ.
: 9. The ETE are presented at the 90th and 100th percentiles in graphical and tabular format, as per NRC guidance. The percentile ETE is defined as the elapsed time from the ATE issued to a specific Region of the EPZ, to the time that Region is clear of the indicated percentile of evacuees.
: 10. The ETE also includes consideration of "through" {External-External traffic that originates its trip outside of the study area and has its destination outside of the study area) trips during the time that such traffic is permitted to enter the evacuated Region.
See Section 3.11.
: 11. This study does not assume that roadways are empty at the start of the evacuation.
Rather, there is an initialization period (often referred to as "fill time" in traffic simulation) wherein the anticipated traffic volumes from the beginning of evacuation are loaded onto roadways in the study area. The amount of initialization/fill traffic that is on the roadways in the study area at the start of the evacuation depends on the scenario and the region being evacuated. See Section 3.12.
: 12. To account for boundary conditions (roadway conditions outside the study area that are not specifically modeled due to the limited radius of the study area) beyond the study
: 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.
: 2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.
It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various stages of an emergency. See Section 5.1 for more detail.
6 The models of the I-DYNEV System were recognized as state of the art by the Atomic Safety & Licensing Board (ASLB) in past hearings. (Sources: Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Hearings on Seabrook and Shoreham; Urbanik). The models have continuously been refined and extended since those hearings and were independently validated by a consultant retained by the NRC. The DYNEV II model incorporates the latest technology in traffic simulation and in dynamic traffic assignment.
Surry Power Station                                                  2-2                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
area, this study assumed a 25% reduction in capacity on two-lane roads and multi-lane highways for roadways that have traffic signals downstream. The 25% reduction in capacity is based on the prevalence of actuated traffic signals in the study area and the fact that the evacuating ("main street") traffic volume is more significant than the competing ("side street") traffic volume at any downstream signalized intersections, thereby warranting a more significant percentage (75% in this case) of the signal green time. There is no reduction in capacity for freeways due to boundary conditions.
2.3    Study Assumptions on Mobilization Times
: 1. Trip generation time (also known as mobilization time, or the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation) are based upon the results of the recent, online demographic survey. It is assumed that stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur.
: 2. One hundred percent (100%) of the EPZ population can be notified within 45 minutes, in accordance with the 2019 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual.
: 3. Commuter percentages (and percentage of residents awaiting the return of a commuter) are based on the results of the demographic survey. According to the survey results, approximately 74% of the households in the EPZ have at least 1 commuter; 61%
of those households with commuters will await the return of a commuter before beginning their evacuation trip. Therefore, 45% (74% x 61% = 45%) of EPZ households will await the return of a commuter, prior to beginning their evacuation trip.
2.4    Transit Dependent Assumptions
: 1. The percentage of transit-dependent people who will rideshare with a neighbor or friend are based on the results of the demographic survey. According to the survey results, approximately 69% of the transit-dependent population will rideshare.
: 2. Buses are used to transport those without access to private vehicles:
: a. Schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps
: i. If schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps are in session, transport (buses) will evacuate students directly to the designated Evacuation Assembly Centers (EACs).
ii. It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.
iii. For the schools, day care centers, and day camps that are evacuated via buses, it is assumed no children will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.
Surry Power Station                                2-3                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
iv. Schoolchildren, if school is in session, are given priority in assigning transit vehicles.
: b. Medical Facilities
: i. Buses, wheelchair buses, and ambulances will evacuate patients at medical facilities within the EPZ, as needed. Medical facilities are required to have their own evacuation plans and to contract or own vehicles needed for evacuation. This is taken into consideration in the ETE analysis.
ii. Detailed census data, including the percent breakdown of ambulatory, wheelchair bound and bedridden patients were provided by James City County for all the medical facilities in their portion of the EPZ. These percentages are used to determine the number of ambulatory, wheelchair bound and bedridden patients at the medical facilities in the EPZ that did not provide updated data.
: c. Correctional facilities:
: i. There are two correctional facilities in the EPZ - the Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail and the Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center. These facilities will shelter-in-place for most situations but may evacuate if necessary.
Both facilities have evacuation plans and transportation resources to evacuate in. ETE will be computed for these facilities based on data/information provided by management of these facilities.
: d. Transit-dependent permanent residents:
: i. Transit-dependent (do not own or have access to a private vehicle) general population will be evacuated to EACs.
ii. Access and/or functional needs population may require city/county assistance (ambulance, bus or wheelchair transport) to evacuate. This is considered separately from the general population ETE, as per NRC guidance.
iii. Households with 3 or more vehicles were assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.
: e. Analysis of the number of required roundtrips ("waves") of evacuating transit vehicles are presented.
: f. Transport of transit-dependent evacuees from EACs to congregate care centers is not considered in this study.
: 3. Transit vehicle capacities:
: a. School buses = 70 students per bus for elementary schools/day care centers/day camps and 50 students per bus for middle/high schools
: b. Ambulatory transit-dependent persons, medical facility patients and correctional facility inmates = 30 persons per bus Surry Power Station                                2-4                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
: c. Vans = 5 persons
: d. Ambulances= 2 bedridden persons (includes advanced and basic life support)
: e. Wheelchair accessible vans = 4 wheelchair bound persons
: f. Wheelchair accessible buses= 12 wheelchair bound persons
: 4. Transit vehicles mobilization times (time needed to get bus drivers to buses and buses to the facility to be evacuated, ready to load with evacuees), which are considered in ETE calculations:
: a. School and transit buses will arrive at schools, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camps to be evacuated as follows:
: 1. James City - 60 minutes
: 2. Newport News - 45 minutes
: 3. Williamsburg -60 minutes
: 4. York County - 110 minutes
: 5. Isle of Wight County - no schools in EPZ
: 6. Surry County - no schools in EPZ
: b. Transit dependent buses are mobilized when approximately 90% of residents with no commuters have completed their mobilization activities at about 2 hours and 30 minutes after the ATE. The residents taking longer to mobilize are assumed to rideshare with a friend or neighbor.
: c. Vehicles will arrive at hospitals, medical facilities, and senior living facilities to be evacuated within 180 minutes of the ATE.
: 5. Transit Vehicle loading times:
: a. Concurrent loading on multiple buses/transit vehicles is assumed
: b. School buses will be loaded in 15 minutes.
: c. Transit Dependent buses will require 1 minute of loading time per passenger.
: d. Buses for hospitals and medical facilities will require 1 minute of loading time per ambulatory passenger.
: e. Wheelchair transport vehicles will require 5 minutes of loading time per passenger.
: f. Ambulances will be loaded in 15 minutes per bedridden passenger.
: 6. Drivers for all transit vehicles are available.
2.5    Traffic and Access Control Assumptions
: 1. Traffic Control Points (TCP) and Access Control Points (ACP) as defined in the approved city/county and state emergency plans are considered in the ETE analysis, as per NRC guidance.
Surry Power Station                                2-5                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
: 2. ACP are assumed to staffed 120 minutes after the ATE, as per NRC guidance. No through traffic will enter the EPZ after this 120-minute time period.
: 3. All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are unhindered by personnel manning TCPs and ACPs.
2.6    Scenarios and Regions
: 1. A total of 14 "Scenarios" representing different temporal variations (season, time of day, day of week) and weather conditions are considered. Scenarios to be considered are defined in Table 2-1:
: a. The largest transient attractions in the EPZ - Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg - operating at capacity on summer weekends is considered as the special event (single or multi-day event that attracts a significant population into the EPZ; recommended by NRC guidance) for Scenario 13. Note, this special event occurs on most weekends in the summer and is not a one time per year special event. See Section 3.8 for additional information.
: b. As per NRC guidance, one segment of one of the highest volume roadways will be out of service or one lane outbound on a freeway must be closed for a roadway impact scenario. This study considers the closure of one lane on 1-64 westbound (from the interchange with State Route 143 - Exit 247 - in PAZ 16 to the northern boundary of the EPZ just north of the Camp Peary interchange -
Exit 238) for the roadway impact scenario - Scenario 14.
: 2. Two types of adverse weather scenarios are considered. Rain may occur for either winter or summer scenarios; snow occurs in winter scenarios only. It is assumed that the rain or snow begins at about the same time the evacuation advisory is issued. Thus, no weather-related reduction in the number of transients who may be present in the EPZ is assumed.
: 3. Adverse weather affects roadway capacity and free flow speeds. Transportation research indicates capacity and speed reductions of about 10% for rain and a range of 10% to 25% for snow. In accordance with Table 3-1 of Revision 1 to NUREG/CR-7002, this study assumes a 10% reduction in speed and capacity for rain and light snow. The "heavy snow" scenarios considered assume that there was a significant snowfall such that minor roadways and driveways have snow on them. Based on conversations with the EPZ city/county emergency management agencies, primary roads are plowed first during snowstorms, then secondary roads. Neighborhood roads are not cleared. The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) is the lead agency for snow removal. The "heavy snow" scenarios considered in this study assume that a snowstorm happened and primary and secondary roads were cleared, but there is still a fine layer of snow on the roadways such that the roads are passable albeit at lower speeds and capacities.
(NOTE: If the snow is too significant or if it is actively snowing and accumulating, evacuation would not be prudent and sheltering-in-place would be the preferred Surry Power Station                              2-6                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
protective action. The "heavy snow" ETE values documented in this report would not apply for such circumstances.) During "heavy snow" scenarios a speed and capacity reduction of 15% and 25% was used, respectively. The adverse weather speed and capacity factors are shown in Table 2-2.
: 4. Some evacuees will need additional time to clear their driveways and access the public roadway system for heavy snow scenarios. The distribution of time for this activity was gathered through a demographic survey of the public and takes up to 180 minutes. It is assumed that the time needed by evacuees to remove snow from their driveways is sufficient time for snow removal crews to mobilize and clear/treat primary and secondary roadways. There are additional activities that a person will have to do before they actually begin their evacuation trip, which will delay their departure time. This allows additional time to plow the minor roads, as needed.
: 5. Employment is reduced slightly in the summer for vacations.
: 6. Mobilization and loading times for transit vehicles are slightly longer in adverse weather. Mobilization times are 10 minutes and 20 minutes longer in rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively. Loading times are 5 minutes and 10 minutes longer for school buses and 10 minutes and 20 minutes longer for transit buses in rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively. Refer to Table 2-2.
: 7. Regions are defined by the underlying "keyhole" or circular configurations as specified in Section 1.4 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. These Regions, as defined, display irregular boundaries reflecting the geography of the PAZs included within these underlying configurations. All 16 cardinal and intercardinal wind direction keyhole configurations are considered. Regions to be considered are defined in Table 6-1. It is assumed that everyone within the group of PAZs forming a Region that is issued an ATE will, in fact, respond and evacuate in general accord with the planned routes.
: 8. Due to irregular shapes of the PAZs, there are instances where a small portion of a PAZ (a "sliver") is within the keyhole and the population within that small portion is low (less than 500 people or 10% of the PAZ population, whichever is less). Under those circumstances, the PAZ would not be included in the Region so as to not evacuate large numbers of people outside of the keyhole for a small number of people that are actually in the keyhole, unless otherwise stated in the PAR document.
: 9. Staged evacuation is considered as defined in NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 - those people between 2 and 5 miles will shelter-in-place until 90% of the 2-Mile Region has evacuated, then they will evacuate. See Regions R42 through R49 in Table 6-1.
Surry Power Station                              2-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table 2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario            Season 7          Day of Week            Time of Day              Weather                Special 1            Summer                Midweek                Midday                    Good                  None 2            Summer                Midweek                Midday                    Rain                  None 3            Summer                Weekend                Midday                    Good                  None 4              Summer                Weekend                Midday                    Rain                  None Midweek, 5            Summer                                      Evening                  Good                  None Weekend 6              Winter              Midweek                Midday                    Good                  None 7              Winter              Midweek                Midday            Rain/Light Snow              None 8              Winter              Midweek                Midday                Heavy Snow                None 9              Winter              Weekend                Midday                    Good                  None 10              Winter              Weekend                Midday            Rain/Light Snow              None 11              Winter              Weekend                Midday                Heavy Snow                None Midweek, 12              Winter                                      Evening                  Good                  None Weekend Special Event: Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown 13              Summer              Weekend                Midday                    Good            Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at capacity on summer weekends Roadway Impact:
14              Summer              Midweek                Midday                    Good            Westbound Lane Closure on 1-64 7 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
Surry Power Station                                              2-8                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                    Rev.O
 
Table 2-2. Model Adjustment for Adverse Weather Mobilization      Loading Time for      Loading Time for Mobilization Time              Time for          School Buses          Transit Buses 8 Highway      Free Flow            for General                Transit Scenario    Capacity*      Speed*              Population                  Vehicles 10-minute              5-minute              10-minute Rain        90%            90%                No Effect increase              increase              increase Clear driveway before leaving            20-minute            10-minute              20-minute Snow          75%            85%
home                    increase              increase              increase (See Section 5)
    *Adverse weather capacity and speed values are given as a percentage of good weather conditions.
Roads are assumed to be passable.
8 Does not apply to medical facilities, correctional facilities, and those with access and/or functional needs as loading times for these people are already conservative.
Surry Power Station                                                  2-9                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.0
* Plant Location Region to be 1111 Evacuated : 100%
Evacuation 11111 Shelter, Evacuate then 1 1 20% Shadow L___J Evacuation 15 Miles                                  15 Miles 12-Mile Region I                          15-Mile Region I Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind      Keyhole: 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind Staged Evacuation: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Surry Power Station                                                                      2-10                                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
3      DEMAND ESTIMATION The estimates of demand, expressed in terms of people and vehicles, constitute a critical element in developing an evacuation plan. These estimates consist of three components:
: 1. An estimate of population within the EPZ, stratified into groups (resident, employee, transient).
: 2. An estimate, for each population group, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle. This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.
: 3. An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.
Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates. Our primary source of population data, the 2020 Census, is not adequate for directly estimating some transient groups.
Throughout the year, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These non-residents may dwell within the EPZ for a short period (e.g., a few days or one or two weeks), or may enter and leave within one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so that the associated number of evacuating vehicles can be ascertained.
The potential for double-counting people and vehicles must be addressed. For example:
* A resident who works and camps within the EPZ could be counted as a resident, again as an employee and once again as a camper.
* A visitor who stays at a hotel and spends time at a park, then goes camping could be counted three times.
Furthermore, the number of vehicles at a location depends on time of day. For example, motel parking lots may be full at dawn and empty at noon. Similarly, parking lots at area parks, which are full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn. Estimating counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities could tend to overestimate the number of transients and can lead to ETE that are too conservative.
Analysis of the population characteristics of the SPS EPZ indicates the need to identify three distinct groups:
* Permanent residents - people who are year-round residents of the EPZ.
* Transients - people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specific purpose (camping, recreation) and then leave the area.
* Employees - people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to work within the EPZ on a daily basis.
Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of the population groups are presented for each PAZ and by polar coordinate representation (population rose).
The SPS EPZ is subdivided into 30 PAZs. The PAZs comprising the EPZ are shown in Figure 3-1.
Surry Power Station                              3-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
3.1      Permanent Residents The primary source for estimating permanent population is the 2020 U.S. Census data with an availability date of September 16, 2021. The average household size (2.58 persons/household -
See Appendix F, Sub-Section F.3.1) and the number of evacuating vehicles per household (1.47 vehicles/household - See Appendix F, Sub-Section F.3.2) were adapted from the demographic survey.
The permanent resident population is estimated by cutting the census block polygons by PAZ and EPZ boundaries using GIS software. A ratio of the original area of each census block and the updated area (after cutting) is multiplied by the total block population to estimate the population within the EPZ. The methodology (referred to as the "area ratio method") assumes that the population is evenly distributed across a census block. Table 3-1 provides the permanent resident population within the EPZ, by PAZ, for 2010 and 2020 (based on the methodology above). As indicated, the permanent resident population within the EPZ has increased by 6.39% since the 2010 Census.
To estimate the number of vehicles, the 2020 Census permanent resident population is divided by the average household size and then multiplied by the average number of evacuating vehicles per household. Permanent resident population and vehicle estimates are presented in Table 3-2. Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-3 present the permanent resident population and permanent resident vehicle estimates by sector and distance from SPS. This "rose" was constructed using GIS software. Note, the 2020 Census includes residents living in group quarters, such as skilled nursing facilities, group homes, university/college student housing, military quarters, prisons, etc. These people are transit dependent (will not evacuate in personal vehicles) and are included in the special facility evacuation demand estimates. To avoid double counting vehicles, the vehicle estimates for these people have been removed.
The resident vehicles in Table 3-2 and Figure 3-3 have been adjusted accordingly.
3.1.1 The College of William and Mary There is one college within the SPS EPZ: The College of William and Mary, located in PAZ 21, 7.2 miles north of SPS. Data provided by the City of Williamsburg indicate this college has a total enrollment of 8,200 full-time students. According to the National Application Center 1 database (as of December 2021), 54% of the students live in campus housing. As such, there are 4,428 (8,200 x 54%) on-campus students and 3,772 (8,200 - 4,428) off-campus students who commute to school.
Based on the data collected for the previous ETE study, 55% of the on-campus students have vehicles. Assuming this data is still applicable, there would be 2,435 (4,428 x 55%) on-campus students with personal vehicles. The remaining 1,993 (4,428 - 2,435) on-campus students can be evacuated by ridesharing with fellow classmates or by buses. According to the demographic survey results, 69% of the transit-dependent people will rideshare (see Figure F-4) to evacuate.
Thus, 1,375 (1,993 x 69%) on-campus students would evacuate along with their fellow classmates in personal vehicles, leaving 618 (1,993 - 1,375) students to be evacuated by bus.
1 https://www.nationalapplicationcenter.com/
Surry Power Station                              3-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Using the capacity of 30 people per transit-dependent bus, the total number of buses needed for this college is 21 (618 + 30 = 21, rounded up) or 42 vehicles (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles due to its larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics).
The commuting students consist of two groups: those who commute from inside the EPZ and those who commute from outside the EPZ. The former, are part of the permanent resident population as discussed above; the latter are considered as a unique population group, using the employee trip generation distribution (see Section 5) but the school scenario percentages (see Section 6). Data collected for the previous study indicates approximately 64. 7% of the commuting students live outside of the EPZ. As such, it is estimated that 2,440 (3,772 x 64. 7%)
students commute into the EPZ. Since these commuting students have similar travel patterns as commuters, the commuter vehicle occupancy rate of 1.05 persons per vehicle (see Appendix F, Sub-section F.3.1) obtained from the demographic survey was used, resulting in 2,324 (2,440
+ 1.05) evacuating vehicles.
In summary, the 8,200 students at College of William and Mary will be evacuated in 4,759 (2,435 + 2,324) personal vehicles and 21 buses.
3.1.2 Military Installations There are four military installations within the SPS EPZ: Fort Eustis, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station, Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Depot. Data for these military installations were provided by Fort Eustis and by York County. The data/information for the military installations is summarized as follows:
Fort Eustis:
* Located in PAZ 14, approximately 6.4 miles west of SPS.
* As per the Fort Eustis Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the entire PAZ 14 is occupied by Fort Eustis. Currently, there are 5,200 personnel living on post, including 1,900 students. These people have been included as permanent residents as discussed above. Thus, the 2020 population number for PAZ 14 has been adjusted in Table 3-1 and Table 3-2.
* In the event of an emergency, the 1,900 students will be evacuated by buses with a capacity of 44 students per bus. As such, the number of buses needed for Fort Eustis is 44 (1,900 + 44 = 44, rounded up) or 88 vehicles. To avoid double counting vehicles, the vehicle estimates for these students have been removed in Table 3-2.
* In addition to the permanent residents living on post, Fort Eustis has 6,000 to 8,000 employees on workdays. The estimates of employees and employee vehicles at Fort Eustis will be discussed in detail in Section 3.4.
Yorktown Naval Weapons Station:
* Located in PAZ 16, approximately 7.0 miles east-northeast of SPS.
* According to the York County OEM, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station has an estimate of 600 residents. These people are counted as permanent residents as discussed in Section 3.1. The aerial imagery shows there are living quarters in PAZs 16 and 19B. As such, the 2020 population numbers for PAZs 16 and 19B have been adjusted in Table 3-1 Surry Power Station                                3-3                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
and Table 3-2 accordingly.
* As per York County OEM, the majority of the residents can be evacuated by private vehicles, while limited bus assistance would be needed for transit-dependent residents.
This group of people will be included and discussed in Section 3.6.
* In addition, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station has approximately 2,000 employees on a daily basis, as per York County OEM. Refer to Section 3.4 for detailed information on the employee population and employee vehicles.
Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center:
* Both installations are located in PAZ 20B. Camp Peary is approximately 9.8 miles north of SPS, while Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center is approximately 9.9 miles north-northeast of SPS.
* The 2020 Census indicates there are no permanent residents living on these two posts.
Therefore, no residents or resident vehicles were estimated for Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center.
* According to York County OEM, Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center have approximately 300 and 1,000 employees, respectively.              The estimates of employees and employee vehicles will be discussed in detail in Section 3.4.
3.2    Shadow Population A portion of the population living outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles radially from the SPS may elect to evacuate without having been instructed to do so. This area is called the Shadow Region. Based upon NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 guidance, it is assumed that 20% of the permanent resident population, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, in the Shadow Region will elect to evacuate.
Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuating vehicles per household, mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as those for the EPZ permanent resident population. Table 3-3, Figure 3-4, and Figure 3-5 present estimates of the shadow population and vehicles, by sector. Similar to the EPZ resident vehicle estimates, resident vehicles at group quarters have been removed from the shadow population vehicle demand in Table 3-3 and Figure 3-5.
3.3    Transient Population Transient population groups are defined as those people (who are not permanent residents, nor commuting employees) who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (camping, recreation).
Transients may spend less than one day or stay overnight at camping facilities, hotels and motels. Data for these facilities were provided by the cities/counties within the EPZ. When data could not be provided, the number of transient vehicles was estimated based on the parking lot capacity or accommodation capacity obtained from aerial imagery and facility websites. It is assumed that transients would travel to the recreational areas as a family/household. As such, the average household size (2.58 - See Section 3.1) was used to Surry Power Station                            3-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
estimate the transient population. The transient attractions within the SPS EPZ are summarized as follows:
* Campgrounds - 1,690 transients and 689 vehicles; 2.45 transients per vehicle (NOTE:
Recreational Vehicles (RVs) are modeled as 2 vehicles in DYNEV due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.)
* Golf Courses - 3,277 transients and 1,359 vehicles; 2.41 transients per vehicle
* Historical Sites-6,810 transients and 1,763 vehicles; 3.86 transients per vehicle
* Marinas - 856 transients and 403 vehicles; 2.12 transients per vehicle (NOTE: vehicles with boat trailers are modeled as 2 vehicles in DYNEV.)
* Parks - 3,036 transients and 950 vehicles; 3.20 transients per vehicle
* Other Recreational Facilities (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, and Stoney Run Athletic Complex)-12,719 transients and 4,930 vehicles; 2.58 transients per vehicle
* Lodging Facilities - 33,402 transients and 14,509 vehicles; 2.30 transients per vehicle The largest transient attractions in the SPS EPZ are Busch Gardens in James City County and Water Country USA in York County which can attract nearly 25,000 people combined on a peak day. As per discussion with county emergency management personnel, the visitors include people living within the EPZ, who have been included as permanent residents in Section 3.1. To avoid double counting the resident vehicles, data collected for the special event was used (50%
of the theme park attendees are EPZ residents - See Section 3.8 for additional discussion).
The third largest transient attraction is Jamestown National Park, including Jamestown Settlement which is the major tourist attraction of the park. According to the local agency, the Jamestown National Park and Settlement attract a total of 5,400 daily visitors and 1,025 vehicles, on average, during peak seasons.
Another large transient attraction is the Colonial Williamsburg Visitor Center which has a large parking lot and is the origin of most transient vehicle trips for transients visiting Colonial Williamsburg. Note, the historical Village of Williamsburg is a pedestrian-only area; thus, no vehicles are assigned to this area. According to the City of Williamsburg, the average numbers of transients and vehicles at the visitor center are 4,400 and 1,650 during a peak day, respectively. Similar to the visitors at the transient attractions discussed above, 50% of visitors at the visitor center are assumed to be living within the EPZ. As such, 2,200 transients and 825 vehicles were assigned to this facility.
In addition to the major transient attractions within the SPS EPZ, the following smaller facilities are identified in the Newport News Radiological Emergency Response Plan:
* Nicewood Park
* Queen's Hithe
* Potter's Field Historical Park The aerial imagery shows these smaller facilities have limited parking space, indicating the majority of the visitors are likely local residents who have already been counted as permanent residents in Section 3.1. As such, no transients were considered at these facilities in this study.
Surry Power Station                              3-5                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Appendix E summarizes the transient data that was estimated for the EPZ. Table E-5 through Table E-7 present the number of transients visiting recreational areas, while Table E-8 presents the number of transients at lodging facilities within the EPZ.
In total, there are 61,790 transients in the EPZ at peak times, evacuating in 24,603 vehicles (an average vehicle occupancy of 2.51 transients per vehicle). Table 3-4 presents transient population and transient vehicle estimates by PAZ. Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 present these data by sector and distance from the plant.
3.4          Employees The estimate of employees commuting into the EPZ is based on the 2019 Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC) provided by the U.S. Census Bureau's OnTheMap Census analysis tool 2 extrapolated to 2020 using the short-term employment projection for the Commonwealth of Virginia 3, supplemented by data obtained from other sources, including Dominion, Fort Eustis OEM and York County.
The WAC data provides the employee counts by industry sector for each census block within the SPS EPZ. The employee count for each industry sector was then extrapolated to 2020 for each census block using commonwealth short-term employment projections. Since not all employees are working at facilities within the EPZ at one time, a maximum shift reduction was applied to each census block. Assuming maximum shift employment occurs Monday through Friday between 9 AM and 5 PM, the following jobs take place outside the typical 9-5 workday:
* Manufacturing - takes place in shifts over 24 hours
* Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation - takes place in evenings and on weekends
* Accommodations and Food Services - peaks in the evenings Therefore, the number of extrapolated employees working in these three industry sectors was subtracted from the total number for each census block to represent the maximum number of employees present in the EPZ at any one time. As per the NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, employers with 200 or more employees working in a single shift are considered to be the major employers. As such, the census blocks with less than 200 extrapolated employees (during the maximum shift) are not included in this study.
Employees who work within the EPZ fall into two categories:
* Those who live and work in the EPZ
* Those who live outside of the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ.
Those of the first category are already counted as part of the permanent resident population.
To avoid double counting, we focus only on those employees commuting from outside the EPZ who will evacuate along with the permanent resident population. The 2019 LEHD (Longitudinal 2 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/ OnTheMap is an interactive map displaying workplace and residential distributions by user-defined geographies at census block level detail. It also reports the work characteristics detail on age, and earnings by industry groups.
3 https://virginiaworks.com/download-center Surry Power Station                                            3-6                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Employer-Household Dynamics) Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data 4 from the OnTheMap website was then used to estimate the percent of employees that work within the EPZ but live outside. This value, 64.6%, was applied to the maximum shift employee values to compute the number of employees commuting into the EPZ at peak times. To estimate the evacuating employee vehicles, the employee vehicle occupancy rate (1.05 - See Appendix F, Sub-Section F.3.1) obtained from the demographic survey was used.
Note, the employment data for the following major employers were provided by local agencies:
* Based on the employment data provided by Dominion, it is estimated that SPS has 812 employees during the maximum shift, and 649 of them live outside of the EPZ. Applying the commuter vehicle occupancy rate (1.05) above, there are 618 (649 + 1.05) employee vehicles. This data is supplemented for the census block in the Surry County employment subtotal in Appendix E, Table E-4.
* According to the Fort Eustis OEM, there are 6,000 to 8,000 employees working at the post on workdays, and 30% of them live within the 10-mile EPZ. As such, the maximum number of employees during a single shift is 8,000, and the number of employees living outside of the EPZ is 5,600 (8,000 x (1 - 30%)). As per the Fort Eustis OEM, all employees commute to work in personal vehicles. As such, 1 employee per vehicle was used for Fort Eustis, resulting in 5,600 employee vehicles. This data is supplemented for the census block in the Newport News City employment subtotal in Appendix E, Table E-4.
* As described in Section 3.1.2, the Yorktown Naval Weapons Station, Camp Peary and Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center have approximately 2,000, 300 and 1,000 employees, respectively. Data for the number of employees living outside of the EPZ was unavailable. Thus, the percentage (70%) provided by Fort Eustis OEM was used for each military installation. As per York County OEM, employees have access to their own personal vehicles or assistance from co-workers for evacuation. Therefore, the commuter vehicle occupancy rate (1.05 employees per vehicle) was used to estimate the employee vehicles. In total, these three facilities have 2,310 ((2,000 + 300 + 1,000) x 70%) employees and 2,200 (2,310 + 1.05) vehicles commuting into the EPZ. This data is supplemented for the census block in the York County employment subtotal in Appendix E, Table E-4.
Table 3-5 presents the estimates of employees and employee vehicles commuting into the EPZ, by PAZ. Figure 3-8 and Figure 3-9 present these data by sector.
3.5      Medical Facilities Data for medical facilities was provided by the cities/counties within the EPZ, supplemented by internet searches where data was not provided. Since the average number of patients at the medical facilities fluctuates daily, the percent breakdown of ambulatory, wheelchair bound, and 4 The LODES data is part of the LEHD data products from the U.S. Census Bureau. This dataset provides detailed spatial distributions of workers' employment and residential locations and the relation between the two at the census block level. For detailed information, please refer to this site: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/
Surry Power Station                                                  3-7                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev.O
 
bedridden patients was assumed to be 54.6%, 34.5%, and 10.9%, respectively, based on the previous ETE study for the facilities that the breakdown was missing. Table E-3 in Appendix E summarizes the data gathered. Table 3-6 presents the current census of medical facilities in the EPZ. As shown in these tables, there are total of 2,282 people has been identified as living in, or being treated in, in these facilities.
The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 3-6. The number and type of evacuating vehicles that need to be provided depend on the patients' state of health. It is estimated that buses can transport up to 30 people, wheelchair buses up to 12 people, and ambulances up to 2 people.
3.6      Transit Dependent Population The demographic survey {see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:
* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available
* Those persons in households that do have vehicle{s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised In the latter group, the vehicle{s) may be used by a commuter{s) who does not return {or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.
Table 3-7 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:
* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren. For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren. The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates. However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session .
* It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80% of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario 5 who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70% of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing.
We will adopt a conservative estimate that approximately 69% of transit dependent persons will ride share based on the results of the online demographic survey.
The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run . Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average {roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + {2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average 5 Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 6,600 people of a transit-dependent population of 8,600 people shared rides with other residents; a ride share rate of 77% (Page 5-10).
Surry Power Station                                            3-8                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68%. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 3-7 by 50%, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.
[20 + (~ X 10)] + 40 X 1.5 = 1.00 Table 3-7 indicates that transportation must be provided for 1,493 people. Therefore, a total of 50 buses are required from a capacity standpoint. In order to service all of the transit dependent population and have at least one bus drive through each of the PAZs picking up transit dependent people, 70 buses runs are used in the ETE calculations, {even though only 50 buses are needed from a capacity standpoint). These buses are represented as two vehicles in the ETE simulations due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.
To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the SPS EPZ:
n P =No.of HH        x L{(%
i=O HH with i vehicles)    x [(Average HH Size) - i]} x AiCi Where:
A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P  = 62,956 X [(1.33 X 0.0127) +      0.1822 X (1.56 - 1) X 0.74 X 0.39
                + 0.4534 X    (2.79 - 2) X (0.74 X 0.39) 2 ] = 4,796 B = ((1 - 0.69)    X P) + 30 = 50 These calculations based on the demographic survey results are explained as follows:
* The number of households {HH) is computed by dividing the EPZ population by the average household size {162,426 + 2.58) and is 62,956.
* All members {1.33 avg.) of households {HH) with no vehicles {1.27%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share. The term 62,956 x 0.0127 x 1.33, accounts for these people.
* The members of HH with 1 vehicle away {18.22%), who are at home, equal {1.56-1).
The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to {62,956 x 0.1822 x 0.56 x 0.74 x 0.39), as 74% of EPZ households have a commuter, 39% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.
* The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away {45.34%), who are at home, equal
{2.79 - 2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 62,956 x 0.4534 x 0.79 x {0.74 x 0.39) 2
* The number of persons who will evacuate by Surry Power Station                              3-9                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).
* Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.
* The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.
* The total number of buses needed is the product of the number of transit dependent people and one minus the ridesharing percentage {69%) divided by an average bus occupancy of 30 people per bus.
3.7    School and Day Care Centers (operated by schools) Population Demand Table 3-8 presents the school, day care centers (operated by schools), and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2020-2021 school year. Student enrollment data was provided by county/city emergency management agencies, and internet searches where data was not provided. The column in Table 3-8 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school/day care under the following set of assumptions and estimates:
* No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.
* It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not school run and are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.
* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.
* Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for elementary schools/ day care centers/day camps and 50 for middle/high schools.
* Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.
* No allowance is made for student absenteeism, which is typically 3% daily.
The cities/counties in the EPZ could introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated. In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities). Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents (although they are not advised to do so) can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.
School buses are represented as two vehicles in the ETE simulation due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.
Surry Power Station                              3-10                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
3.8    Special Event One special event (Scenario 13) is considered for the ETE study - Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, the Jamestown Settlement and Colonial Williamsburg at capacity - which typically occurs on weekends throughout the summer based on discussions with city/county emergency management agencies. Aerial imagery from Google Earth was used to estimate the parking lot capacities of Busch Gardens and Water Country USA:
* Busch Gardens - 7,000 parking spaces including the main lots (England, Germany, Ireland and Italy) and the overflow parking lots (Bavaria and Scotland)
* Water Country USA - 2,500 parking spaces Based on discussions with the city/county emergency management agencies, these lots would be full on a holiday weekend, with approximately half (50%) of the visitors to these attractions being local EPZ residents. It is assumed that visitors to these attractions travel together as a family. Thus, the average vehicle occupancy is assumed to be the same as the EPZ household size (2.58 people) which was obtained from the demographic survey. Transient data for the Jamestown Settlement and Colonial Williamsburg was provided directly by city/county emergency management agencies. The number of visitors from outside the EPZ and their vehicles for the special event is summarized below:
* Busch Gardens - 7,000 x 50% = 3,500 vehicles x 2.58 people per vehicle = 9,030 transients (the main parking lots on site and the overflow parking lots - Scotland Parking Lot and Bavaria Parking Lot - will be filled to capacity)
* Water Country USA - 2,500 x 50% = 1,250 vehicles x 2.58 people per vehicles = 3,225 transients
* Jamestown National Park and Settlement = 5,400 transients in 1,025 vehicles
* Colonial Williamsburg= 2,200 transients in 825 vehicles Thus, there are a total of 19,855 transients and 6,600 transient vehicles at these transient attractions when they are operating at full capacity. As discussed in Section 6, a typical summer, weekend, midday has these facilities operating at about 75%. A special event summer, weekend, midday with ideal weather conditions would have these facilities operating at 100%.
Thus, the additional traffic for a special event is 25% of the capacity of these four facilities, which is equal to 4,964 people and 1,650 vehicles. In addition, the lodging facilities are considered to be at 50% for the special event versus 25% during a typical summer weekend midday, which attracts an additional 8,351 people evacuating in 3,627 vehicles.
Public transit is not considered in the evacuation of these facilities. There are no special traffic control measures to assist in the evacuation of these facilities.
3.9    Access and/or Functional Needs Population The following registration data for access and/or functional needs population who require transportation assistance to evacuate was provided by the cities/counties:
* James City County-17 people Surry Power Station                              3-11                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
* Surry County - 43 people
* Isle of Wight County - 2 people
* York County - 264 people
* City of Williamsburg - 24 people
* TOTAL EPZ-350 people Details on the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden people were not available. Since the breakdown of access and/or functional needs population was not provided, the percentage of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden population was assumed to be 72.7%, 27.3%, and 0%, respectively, based on the previous ETE study. This results in 254 ambulatory persons that would require a bus to evacuate, 96 wheelchair-bound persons that would require a wheelchair bus/van to evacuate and O bedridden persons that would require an ambulance to evacuate. A total of 9 buses (capacity of 30 ambulatory persons per bus) and 8 wheelchair buses (capacity of 12 wheelchair bound persons per wheelchair bus) are needed from a capacity standpoint to evacuate the access and/or functional needs population.
Nonetheless, this study assumes that 25 buses each making about 10 stops to service 254 people and 16 wheelchair buses each making 6 stops to service 96 people will be deployed to evacuate the access and/or functional needs population in a reasonable amount of time.
Table 3-9 shows the total number of people registered for access and/or functional needs by type of need. The table also shows the transportation resources needed to evacuate these people in a timely manner. Buses and wheelchair buses needed to evacuate the access and/or functional needs population are represented as two passenger car equivalents in the ETE simulations due to their larger size and more sluggish operating characteristics.
3.10 Correctional Facilities As shown in Table E-9, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ - Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center and Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail. The total inmate population at these correctional facilities is 643 persons. As discussed in item 3b of Section 2.4, it is assumed that buses can accommodate 30 passengers per bus. A total of 22 buses {44 vehicles) are required to evacuate these inmates.
3.11 External Traffic Vehicles will be traveling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of an accident.
After the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) is announced, these through-travelers will also evacuate.
These through vehicles are assumed to travel on the major route traversing the EPZ -
lnterstate-64 {1-64). It is assumed that this traffic will continue to enter the EPZ during the first 120 minutes following the ATE.
Average Annual Daily Traffic {AADT) data was obtained from the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) 6 to estimate the number of vehicles per hour on the aforementioned 6 https://www.virginiadot.org/info/2019 traffic data by jurisdiction.asp Surry Power Station                                              3-12            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
route. The AADT was multiplied by the K-Factor, which is the proportion of the AADT on a roadway segment or link during the design hour, resulting in the design hour volume (DHV).
The design hour is usually the 30th highest hourly traffic volume of the year, measured in vehicles per hour (vph). The DHV is then multiplied by the D-Factor, which is the proportion of the DHV occurring in the peak direction of travel (also known as the directional split). The resulting values are the directional design hourly volumes (DDHV) and are presented in Table 3-
: 10. The DDHV is then multiplied by 2 hours (access control points - ACP - are assumed to be activated at 120 minutes after the ATE as per item 2 in Section 2.5) to estimate the total number of external vehicles loaded on the analysis network. As indicated, there are 15,472 vehicles entering the EPZ as external-external trips prior to the activation of the ACP and the diversion of this traffic. This number is reduced to 40% for evening scenarios (Scenarios 5 and
: 12) as discussed in Section 6.
3.12 Background Traffic Section 5 discusses the time needed for the people in the EPZ to mobilize and begin their evacuation trips. As shown in Table 5-9, there are 15 time periods during which traffic is loaded on to roadways in the study area to model the mobilization time of people in the EPZ. Note, there is no traffic generated during the 15th time period, as this time period is intended to allow traffic that has already begun evacuating to clear the study area boundaries.
This study does not assume that roadways are empty at the start of the evacuation (Time Period 1). Rather, there is an initialization time period (often referred to as "fill time" in traffic simulation) wherein the anticipated traffic volumes from the start of the evacuation are loaded onto roadways in the study area. The amount of initialization/fill traffic that is on the roadways in the study area at the start of evacuation depends on the scenario and the region being evacuated (see Section 6). There are approximately 5,000 vehicles on the roadways in the study area at the end of fill time for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 (summer, midweek, midday, good weather) conditions.
3.13 Summary of Demand A summary of population and vehicle demand is provided in Table 3-11 and Table 3-12, respectively. This summary includes all population groups described in this section. A total of 317,710 people and 166,865 vehicles are considered in this study.
Surry Power Station                              3-13                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population PAZ              2010 Population        2020 Population 1                      244                      208 2                      884                      791 3                      514                      429 4                      236                      229 5                      618                      611 6                      177                      194 7                      262                      257 8                      0                        10 9                      603                      581 10                      200                      199 11                      82                      92 12                      95                      79 13                    1,167                    1,162 14                    5,914                  5,200 15                    25,003                  25,581 16                    45,649                  46,181 17                    1,974                  2,504 18A                    1,374                    1,360 18B                    4,153                    4,318 18C                    3,960                  4,096 18D                      71                      77 19A                    6,214                  6,531 19B                    1,033                    1,520 20A                      877                    1,711 20B                    2,521                  2,385 21                    13,384                  15,374 22A                    1,305                    1,649 22B                    3,460                  3,667 23                    19,627                  23,191 24                    11,076                  12,239 EPZ TOTAL                152,677                  162,426 EPZ Population Growth (2010-2020):              6.39%
Surry Power Station                                3-14                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
Table 3-2. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by PAZ 2020 PAZ              2020 Population        Resident Vehicles 1                      208                      119 2                      791                      451 3                      429                      245 4                        229                      130 5                      611                      348 6                      194                      111 7                      257                      147 8                        10                        6 9                      581                      333 10                      199                      114 11                        92                      52 12                        79                      46 13                      1,162                    664 14                    5,200                    1,879 15                    25,581                  14,554 16                    46,181                    26,261 17                    2,504                    1,428 18A                      1,360                    776 18B                    4,318                    2,428 lSC                    4,096                    2,080 18D                        77                      44 19A                    6,531                    3,710 19B                      1,520                    866 20A                      1,711                    951 20B                    2,385                    1,359 21                    15,374                    5,966 22A                      1,649                    940 22B                    3,667                    2,063 23                    23,191                  12,892 24                    12,239                    6,884 EPZ TOTAL                  162,426                  87,847 Surry Power Station                                  3-15                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by Sector Sector              2020 Population        Evacuating Vehicles N                    3,223                      1,835 NNE                      1,762                    1,003 NE                    6,853                      3,902 ENE                    8,888                    4,856 E                    24,307                    13,626 ESE                    64,038                    34,322 SE                    3,235                    1,847 SSE                    10,554                    5,966 s                    1,412                      805 SSW                      402                      232 SW                      489                      277 WSW                        371                      210 w                      313                      182 WNW                        199                      115 NW                        66                        38 NNW                    13,538                    7,696 TOTAL                  139,650                    76,912 Surry Power Station                                3-16                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
Table 3-4. Summary of Transients and Transient Vehicles PAZ                  Transients          Transient Vehicles 1                        0                        0 2                      137                        57 3                        0                        0 4                        0                        0 5                      970                      326 6                      34                        13 7                        0                        0 8                        0                        0 9                        0                        0 10                        0                        0 11                        0                        0 12                        0                        0 13                        0                        0 14                    1,172                      497 15                      355                      146 16                    3,178                    1,330 17                        0                        0 18A                    1,392                      605 18B                    11,993                    4,600 18C                      45                        25 18D                        0                        0 19A                    6,513                    2,563 19B                        0                        0 20A                    10,130                    4,545 20B                      608                      279 21                    12,353                    5,278 22A                    1,056                      190 22B                      84                        39 23                    5,047                    2,119 24                    6,723                    1,991 EPZ TOTAL                61,790                    24,603 Surry Power Station                                3-17                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
Table 3-5. Summary of Employees and Employee Vehicles Commuting into the EPZ PAZ                Employees          Employee Vehicles 1                    271                    258 2                    0                      0 3                    0                      0 4                      0                      0 5                    0                      0 6                    0                      0 7                    0                      0 8                    649                    618 9                    0                      0 10                    0                      0 11                    0                      0 12                    0                      0 13                    0                      0 14                  5,600                  5,600 15                  1,037                    988 16                  1,866                  1,777 17                    0                      0 18A                    0                      0 18B                  1,122                  1,069 18C                    0                      0 18D                    822                    783 19A                    166                    158 19B                    0                      0 20A                    158                    150 20B                    910                    867 21                  2,606                  2,483 22A                    0                      0 22B                    295                    281 23                  2,380                  2,266 24                    133                    127 EPZ TOTAL                18,015                  17,425 Surry Power Station                              3-18                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
Table 3-6. Medical Facility Transit Demand Estimates Wheel-                                      Wheel-Current          Ambu-        chair        Bed-                        chair Bus      Ambulance PAZ                              Facility Name                            Capacity    Census          latory      Bound      ridden      Bus Runs          Runs            Runs y
15      Community Alternative                                                                                                  N/A7 15      Campbell House                                                                                                          N/A 7 15      Mennowood Retirement Community                                      90          83            45            29          9            2                3              5 16      Sacred hearts Ministry                                                                                                  N/A 7 16      Disabled Veterans Meeting Hall                                                                                          N/A7 16      Serenity House, Trust House                                                                                            N/A7 16      ARC Peninsula Saddler Home Inc                                                                                          N/A7 16      Serenity House                                                                                                          N/A 7 16      Mile-A-Way Adult Home                                                                                                  N/A 7 16      Charter Senior Living of Newport News                              110          101            55            35          11            2                3              6 188      Morningside of Williamsburg                                          86          62            2            30          30            1                3              15 18C      Colonial Manor Senior Community                                      85          64            30            30          4            1                3              2 20A      Commonwealth Senior Living                                          195          102            75            25          2            3                3              1 20A      Verena At The Reserve                                              210          152          146            6          0            5                1              0 21      Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg                            40            37            20            13          4            1                2              2 21      Envoy of Williamsburg                                              150          150            0          130          20            0                11              10 21      Spring Arbor of Williamsburg                                        so          so            46            4          0            2                1              0 21      Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg                            90          75            65            10          0            3                1              0 228      Williamsburg Landing                                                193          128            90            33          5            3                3              3 23      Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg                                    338          284          241            34          9            9                3              5 23      WindsorMeade Williamsburg                                            54          33            11            22          0            1                2              0 23      Edgeworth Park at New Town                                          83          78            58            20          0            2                2              0 23      Eastern State Hospital                                              300          265          215            20          30            8                2              15 23      Pavilion At Williamsburg Place                                      57          52            28            18          6            1                2              3 24      English Meadows Williamsburg Campus                                48            11            5            6          0            1                1              0 24      Consulate Health Care                                                90          87            0            43          44            0                4              22 24      The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg                  490          440          374            so          16          as                5              8 TOTAL:      2,789        2,282        1,521          568        193          46                56              99 7 Data for small adult care homes/group homes is unavailable. It is assumed residents will evacuate in personal vehicles.
8 According to the facility, Independent Living residents are tasked with the responsibility of self-evacuation and/or assisting other Independent Living residents with evacuating in their private vehicles.
Surry Power Station                                                                          3-19                                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Table 3-7. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Survey Average HH                                                                                                                    Percent Size                      Survey Percent HH          Survey                          Total                  People        Population with Indicated No. Estimated  with Indicated No. of      Percent HH    Survey Percent HH  People    Estimated    Requiring      Requiring 2020 EPZ        of Vehicles        No. of          Vehicles                with      with Non-Returning Requiring Ridesharing    Public        Public Population    0      1      2    Households  0        1        2      Commuters          Commuters    Transport Percentage    Transit        Transit
  . '*                              62,956 111111111111                    74%                39%                  68.86%
Surry Power Station                                                3-20                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Table 3-8. School, Day Care Center and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates Buses PAZ                                School Name                              Enrollment    Required SCHOOLS 14    General Stanford Elementary School                                      482            7 15    Sanford Elementary School                                                509            8 15    Warwick River Christian School                                          152            3 15    First Baptist Church Denbigh                                            48              1 15    BC Charles Elementary School                                            379            6 15    Menchville High School                                                  1,699          34 15    Jenkins Elementary School                                                478            7 16    Katherine Johnson Elementary School                                      518            8 16    Knollwood Meadows Elementary School                                      445            7 16    Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                                          1,096          22 16    David A Dutrow Elementary School                                        454            7 16    Mary Passage Middle School                                              990          20 16    Stoney Run Elementary School                                            482            7 16    Denbigh High School                                                    1,159          24 16    New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy                  29            1 16    George J McIntosh Elementary                                            442            7 16    Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School                                    570            9 16    Woodside High School                                                    1,684          34 16    Richneck Elementary School                                              597            9 18D    James River Elementary School                                            393            6 19A    Magruder Elementary School                                              598            9 20A    Waller Mill Elementary School                                            344            5 20A    Bruton High School                                                      603            13 20B    Queens Lake Middle School                                                527            11 21    Walsingham Academy (Lower School)                                        318            5 21    Walsingham Academy (Upper School)                                        243            5 21    College of William and Mary                                            8,200          21 21    Matthew Whaley Elementary School                                        471            7 21    Berkeley Middle School                                                  829            17 21    James Blair Middle School                                                550          11 22B    Laurel Lane Elementary School                                            391            6 23    Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School                                      419            6 23    DJ Montague Elementary School                                            441            7 24    Jamestown High School                                                  1,202          25 24    Providence Classical School                                              195            4 24    Matoaka Elementary School                                                627            9 School Subtotal:    28,564          388 Surry Power Station                                  3-21                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.0
 
Buses PAZ                            Day Care/Day Camp Name                                        Enrollment        Required DAY CARE CENTERS AND DAY CAMPS 15    The Garden of Children Ltd                                                                175                09 15      Light Of Hope Community Church                                                          210                09 15      Sanford School Age Program                                                                70                1 15      Denbigh Early Childhood Center                                                            70                1 15      Denbigh Head Start Center                                                                18                1 15      HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center                                                            72                2 15      Warwick River Mennonite Church                                                          255              09 15      New Beech Grove Baptist Church                                                            52                09 15      Christ Community Outreach Center                                                          99                09 15      Colonial Baptist Church                                                                  40                09 15    Village Restoration                                                                        18                09 15      God's Way Christian Academy                                                              50                09 15      First Baptist Church Denbigh Child Development Center                                    260              09 15      B.C. Charles School Age Program                                                          90                2 15      Beginnings Academy of Learning, LLC                                                      99                09 15      Peninsula Pentecostals                                                                    80                09 15      Second Presbyterian Church                                                                60                09 15    Jenkins School Age Program                                                                70                1 15      Reformation Lutheran Church                                                              80                09 16      Living Waters Christian Fellowship Church                                                44                09 16      Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program                                                      90                2 16      Nelson School Age Program                                                                70                1 16    A Heavenly Haven Child Development Center                                                  99                09 16      Kiddy City Daycare                                                                        82              09 16      Girls Inc. @ Cypress Terrace                                                              31                09 16    Toddler Station# Iv, Inc.                                                                100                09 16      Mary Passage School Age Program                                                          70                1 16      Epes School Age Program                                                                  90                2 16      Holy Tabernacle Christian Child Development Center                                        94                09 16      Holy Tabernacle Church Of Deliverance                                                    23                09 16      Denbigh Presbyterian Church                                                              80              09 16      Stepping Stones Child Development Center                                                  70                09 16      Mcintosh School Age Program                                                              70                1 16      Greenwood School Age Program                                                              90                2 16      Richneck School Age Program                                                              70                1 16      Kids Are People Too Childcare Center                                                      77              09 16      Denbigh Christian Academy                                                                370                09 18C      Gilead Christian Academy                                                                  15                09 18C      Grove ABC Day Care                                                                        26                09 9 It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation.
Surry Power Station                                                3-22                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev.O
 
Buses PAZ                                      Day Care Name                            Enrollment    Required 19A        York County Head Start                                                      117            2 20A        Lea RN Lily Child Development Center                                        60            09 21        Williamsburg Campus Child Care                                              77            09 22B        La Petite Academy #898                                                      73            09 23        King's Way Church/Greenwood Christian                                      162            09 23        Childcare Network                                                          172            09 23        New Town United Methodist Church                                            80            09 23        The Goddard School                                                          135            09 23        King of Glory Lutheran Church                                              120            09 23        La Petite Academy #965                                                      35            09 24        4-H Camp                                                                    350          1510 24        The Kensington School                                                        200            09 Day Care Center and Day Camp Subtotal:        5,110          35 GRAND TOTAL:    33,674          423 Table 3-9. Access and/or Functional Needs Demand Summary Population Group                    Population              Vehicles deployed    Passenger Car Equivalents Buses                            254                          25                      50 Wheelchair Buses                          96                          16                      32 Ambulances                              0                          0                        0 Total:            350                          41                      82 10 This facility will evacuate in 15 buses according to James City County.
Surry Power Station                                              3-23                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.0
 
Table 3-10. SPS External Traffic Upstream            Downstream                                                                                                  Hourly          External Node                  Node              Road Name                Direction          AADT 11          K-Factor 12 D-Factor12 Volume            Traffic 8009                  1612                    1-64                West              85,000              0.091      0.5      3,868            7,736 8029                  1198                    1-64                  East            85,000              0.091      0.5      3,868            7,736 TOTAL        15,472 11  https://www.virqiniadot.org/info/2019 traffic data by jurisdiction.asp 12  Highway Capacity Manual 2016 Surry Power Station                                                                      3-24                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Table 3-11. Summary of Population Demand 13*14 Schools, Day Care                                                          On-      Off-Transit-                                    Centers,            Special              Lodging  Medical      Campus  Campus    Shadow      External PAZ        Residents    Dependent      Transients  Employees      Day Camps            Event15            Facilities Facilities  Students Students Population 16  Traffic      Total 1          208              2              0          271              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          481 2            791              7            137            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          935 3            429              4              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          433 4            229              2              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          231 5            611              6            970            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0        1,587 6            194            2              34            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          230 7            257              2              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          259 8            10              1              0          649              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          660 9            581            5              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          586 10            199            2              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          201 11            92            1              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          93 12            79            1              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0          80 13          1,162            11              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0        1,173 14          5,200            48            228        5,600          2,382 17                0                  944        28          0        0          0          0        14,430 15        25,581          235            355        1,037          5,133                  0                  0        83          0        0          0          0        32,424 16        46,181          422            2,191        1,866          10,086                0                  987      101          0        0          0          0        61,834 17          2,504            23              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0        2,527 18A          1,360            13              0            0              0                  0                1,392        0          0        0          0          0        2,765 188          4,318            40            664        1,122              0              9,030                2,299      62          0        0          0          0        17,535 18C          4,096            38            45            0              41                  0                  0        64          0        0          0          0        4,284 180            77            1              0          822            393                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0        1,293 19A          6,531            60            275          166            715              3,225                3,013        0          0        0          0          0        13,985 198          1,520            14              0            0              0                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0        1,534 20A          1,711            16            300          158            1,007                  0                9,830      254          0        0          0          0        13,276 208          2,385            22            608          910            527                  0                  0          0          0        0          0          0        4,452 13 Since the spatial distribution of the access and/or functional needs population is unknown, they are not included in this table.
14 Total transients in the EPZ are the sum of transients, special event, and lodging facilities (61 ,790 transients).
15 Special Event includes Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement, and Colonial Williamsburg 16 Shadow population has been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information .
17 Includes 1,900 students at Fort Eustis.
Surry Power Station                                                                          3-25                                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                    Rev. O
 
Schools, Day Care                                  On-      Off-Transit-                      Centers, Special  Lodging    Medical    Campus  Campus    Shadow      External PAZ      Residents  Dependent  Transients Employees Day Camps Event 15  Facilities Facilities Students Students Population 16  Traffic      Total 21      15,374        141      572      2,606    10,688  2,200      9,581      312      4,428    3,772        0          0        49,674 22A        1,649        15        0          0          0    1,056        0        0          0        0          0          0        2,720 228        3,667        34        0        295        464      0          84      128        0        0          0          0        4,672 23      23,191        213      741      2,380      1,564    0      4,306      712        0        0          0          0        33,107 24        12,239      112      1,413      133      2,574  4,344        966      538        0        0          0          0        22,319 Shadow Region        0          0        0          0          0      0          0        0          0        0        27,930        0        27,930 Total      162,426      1,493    8,533    18,015    35,574  19,855    33,402    2,282      4,428    3,772      27,930        0      317,710 Surry Power Station                                            3-26                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Table 3-12. Summary of Vehicle Demand 18*19 Schools, Day Care                                                On-      Off-Transit-                                      Centers,      Special      Lodging      Medical    Campus  Campus        Shadow        External PAZ        Residents    Dependent20      Transients    Employees      Day Camps        Event        Facilities  Facilities21 Students Students    Population 22    Traffic      Total 1            119              2              0            258              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          379 2            451              2              57              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          510 3            245              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          247 4            130              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          132 5            348              2            326              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          676 6            111              2              13              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          126 7            147              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          149 8              6              2              0            618              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          626 9            333              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          335 10            114              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          116 11            52              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0            54 12            46              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          48 13          664              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          666 14          1,879              4            131          5,600          102 23          0            366          6          0        0              0            0          8,088 15          14,554            16            146            988            134            0              0          15          0        0              0            0        15,853 16          26,261            30            868          1,777            330            0            462          16          0        0              0            0        29,744 17          1,428              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          1,430 18A            776              2              0              0              0            0            605          0          0        0              0            0          1,383 18B          2,428              4            280          1,069            0          3,500            820          23          0        0              0            0          8,124 lSC          2,080              4              25              0              0            0              0          10          0        0              0            0          2,119 18D            44              2              0            783            12            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          841 19A          3,710              4            106            158            22          1,250          1207          0          0        0              0            0          6,457 19B          866              2              0              0              0            0              0            0          0        0              0            0          868 18 Since the spatial distribution of the access and/or functional needs population is unknown, vehicles needed to evacuate access and/or functional needs population are not included in this table.
19 Total transient vehicles in the EPZ are the sum of transients, special event, and lodging facilities (24,603 vehicles).
20 Buses (including transit-dependent buses and school buses) represented as two passenger vehicles. Refer to Section 3.6 and Section 8 for additional information.
21 Vehicles for medical facilities include wheelchair buses, ambulances and buses. Buses and wheelchair buses are represented as two passenger vehicles. Refer to Section 8 for additional information.
22 Shadow vehicles have been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information.
23 Includes 44 buses (88 vehicles) for students at Fort Eustis.
Surry Power Station                                                                        3-27                                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Schools, Day Care                                    On-      Off-Transit-                        Centers, Special  Lodging    Medical    Campus  Campus    Shadow      External PAZ    Residents  Dependent20 Transients Employees Day Camps  Event  Facilities Facilities21 Students Students Population 22  Traffic    Total 20A        951          2        150        150        36      0      4395        25          0        0        0            0        5,709 20B      1,359          2        279        867        22      0        0          0          0        0        0            0        2,529 21      5,966          10        244      2,483      132      825      4209        54        2,435    2,324      0            0      18,682 22A        940          2          0          0        0      190        0          0          0        0        0            0        1,132 22B      2,063          4          0        281        12      0        39          15          0        0        0            0        2,414 23      12,892          16        305      2,266      26      0      1814        87          0        0        0            0      17,406 24      6,884          8        564        127      106      835      592        52          0        0        0            0        9,168 Shadow Region        0            0          0          0        0        0        0          0          0        0      15,382      15,472    30,854 Total    87,847        140      3,494    17,425      934    6,600    14,509      303        2,435    2,324    15,382        15,472  166,865 Surry Power Station                                              3-28                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
Cht1rles City Cot1nty I
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t        {'
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Surry County
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                '- _, 2, 5, 10 Mi le Rings                                                                                      2.5 Figure 3-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                          3-29                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
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[ill]              s              [ml          N l1iliJ 2020 Permanent Resident Population Miles    Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1                      2                2 1*2                    46                48 2-3                  152              200 3-4                1,086            1,286                          w                                        E 4.5                3,669            4,955 5-6                9866            14,821 6-7                19027            33,848 7-8                35,074            6s,9n 8-9                34,091          103,013 9-10                36;768.        139,781 10* EPZ              22,645          162,426                                    Inset Total:        :1.62,426                                O* 2 MIies s Figure 3-2. Permanent Resident Population  by Sector Surry Power Station                                            3-30                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                          Rev.a
 
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I w                                                                                                                                          E
  ~:,a                                                                                                                              1,573 1  120,4781 l ,..
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[ill] '                                                                                                                      I    [20J14I
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                                                                                                    .          -- _,'  10 Miles to EPZ Boundary SSW              -- - -
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                                                                    @Q]
Resident Vehicles Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1                    1            1 1*2                  27            28 2-3                  87          115 3-4                  588          703                                            w                                                          E 4.5                2,093        2,796 5-6                5,386        8,182 6-7                9475        17,657 7-8              17,369      35,026 8-9              19,163      54,189 9-10              ZQ,763      74,952 10* EPZ            12,895      87,847                                                          Inset Total:    87,847                                                        O* 2 MIies          s Figure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles                      by Sector Surry Power Station                                                  3-31                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                        Rev.a
 
N NNW                    13,223      1          NNE 1,762 NW                                                                      NE 66 WNW                                                                                              ENE 199                                                                                          1 s,sss    1 w                                                                                                        E EPZ Resident Population 313      68 See Figure 3-2                                  124,307      I I
WSW                                      '                          ;
ESE 371                                              ....                                        164,038    I SW                                                                        SE 489                                                                  1 3,23s    1 190                    ; .:: Ef>Z Boundary to 11 Miles SSW 402                            s 11,412      1 2020 Shadow Population Miles Subtotal bv Rin2 Cumulative Total EPZ* 11          8,683          8,683 11-12          19,414          28,097 12-13          34,966          63,063 13-14          39,972        103,035 14-15          36,615        139,650 Total:        139,650 Figure 3-4. Shadow Population      by Sector Surry Power Station                                            3-32                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.a
 
N NNW                11,83s    1        NNE 1,003 NW                                                                NE 38 WNW 115                                                        -                              ENE 14,856 1 w                                                                                                  E 182      40 EPZ Resident Vehicles See Figure 3-3                              I13,626 I WSW                                                                                        ESE 210                                                                                    134,322    I SW                                                                  SE 277                                                              11,847 1 109                  ; .:: EPZ Boundary to 11 Miles SSW 232                          s 805 Shadow Vehicles Miles Subtotal bv Rin2 Cumulative Total EPZ* 11          4,797          4,797 11-12          10,954          15,751 12-13          19,708          35,459 13-14          20,772          56,231 14-15          20,681          76,912 Total:        76,912 Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station                                        3-33                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev.a
 
N NNW                                      NNE
                                                            ~2,3941 I
                                        !6,412
                                              .,  -  -\-      300  -  ...
119,3141 NW                .                                                "" ...            NE 17,305    I                                                                        OD WNW        I                                                                                                      ENE
                                                                                                                \
I 474  I  I 129
                                                                                                                    \
I I
w                                                                                                                        E Lili]:      0                                                                                                    0  I
[¥85]
I l -
l                                                                                                    -
WSW                                                                                                                ESE
                \
[I]                                                                                                              [ill]
                  \
SW '
                                                                                                  ;          SE
[jzQJ '                                                                              CD
                                              .                              . ... SSE --_,,'        10 Miles to EPZ Boundary SSW        --l        0 CE]                      s                    0              N
[I]
Transients Miles  Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1                  0              0 1*2                  0              0 2-3                970              970 3-4                  0            970                              w                                                    E 4.5              2,071          3,041 5-6            11,029          14,070 6-7            8,567          22,637 7-8            16,441          39,078 8-9            14,178          53,256 9-10            5,028.          58,284 10-EPZ            3,506          61,790                                          Inset Total:        61790                                        O* 2 MIies        s Figure 3-6. Transient Population by Sector Surry Power Station                                          3-34                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev.a
 
N NNW                                            NNE 19,847 I I                                              I
                                      !2,679
                                              . .,  -  -\-      ISO    -    ...
17,502 NW                .  ,,
                                                                                              "" ...              NE I1,987 I                                                                                    OD WNW        I                                                                                                            ENE
                                                                                                                        \
I 194  I  I 50
                                                                                                                          \
I I
w                                                                                                                              E Di]:        0                                                                                                          0  I fyITTJ I
l -
l                                                                                                            -
WSW                                                                                                                      ESE
                \
[I]                                                                                                                    ~
                  \
SW '
                                                                                                          ,        SE LiliJ              ..                                                      ,, ,
CD
                                                                                . SSE - *-"          r- '  10 Mlles to EPZ Boundary SSW          --
l        0
                                        ~                        s                          0                N
[I]
Transient Vehicles Miles  Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1                  0              0 1*2                  0              0 2-3                326              326 3-4                  0            326                                w                                                        E 4.5                727          1,053 5-6            4,152            5,205 6-7            2,576            7,781 7-8            6;839          14,620 8-9            6,433          21,053 9-10              2,101          23,154 10-EPZ            1,449          24,603                                                Inset Total:        24603                                            0* 2 MIies            s Figure 3-7. Transient Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station                                            3-35                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                            Rev.a
 
N NNW                                                        NNE
                                                                        !3,146 !
12,6.62    I                                                11,6&6    I NW              ,,
                                                      ,, ,,.., .,,,,.\-    0
                                                                                .... '7 .... ...
                                                                                                      . ... .                          NE
[ill]
I    o    I WNW            I                                                                                                                              ENE
                                                                                                                                          \
I  0    I  I I
[µill
                                                                                                                                              \
                                                                                                                                                \
I w                                                                                                                                                    E IT]:        0                                                                                                                                0  I
                                                                                                                                                      !6,066 I l ,..
l                                                                                                                                -
WSW                                                                                                                                            ESE
[ill] '                                                                                                                                I      [Diill
                    ' \
                                                                                                                                    ,t SW '                                                                                                .,        SE IT] '                                                                                    ,                  IT]
I -
                                                                                                                    ...  .-~'
10 Miles to EPZ Boundary SSW                -- - -
I        0 SSE
                                        ~                                s                        I o I                      N
[j[__]
Employees Miles  Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1                649              649 1-2                    0            649 2-3                    0            649 3-4                    0            649                                              w                                                              E 4-5                    0            649 5-6              2,239          2,888 6-7              7,500          10,388 7-8                932          11,320 8-9              3,892          15,212 9-10              2,113          17,325 10* EPZ              690        18,01.5                                                            Inset Total:        18,015                                                          O* 2 MIies              s Figure 3-8. Employee Population by Sector Surry Power Station                                                      3-36                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                  Rev.a
 
N NNW                                                        NNE
                                                                        !2,997 !
                                        !2,535    I                                                11,606    I NW              ,,
                                                      ,, ,,.., .,,,,.\-    0
                                                                                .... '7 .... ...
                                                                                                      . ... .                        NE
[ill]
I    o    I WNW            I                                                                                                                            ENE
                                                                                                                                        \
I  0    I  I I
will
                                                                                                                                              \
                                                                                                                                                \
I w                                                                                                                                                  E IT]:        0                                                                                                                                0 I
                                                                                                                                                    !6,044 I l ,..
l                                                                                                                              -
WSW                                                                                                                                          ESE
    ~ ''                                                                                                                                  I      [ml
                      \
                                                                                                                                  ,t SW '                                                                                                ,        SE IT] '                                                                                    ,                  IT]
I -
                                                                                                                    ...  .-~
10 Miles to EPZ Boundary SSW                -- - -
I        0 SSE
[ill]                            s                        I o I                    N
[j[__]
Employee Vehicles Miles  Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total 0-1                618              618 1-2                    0            618 2-3                    0            618 3-4                    0            618                                              w                                                            E 4-5                    0            618 5-6              2;133          2,751 6-7              7.409          10,160 7-8                887          11,047 8-9              3,708          14,755 9-10              2,013          16,768 10* EPZ              657        17,42.5                                                            Inset Total:        17,425                                                          0* 2 MIies            s Figure 3-9. Employee Vehicles by Sector Surry Power Station                                                      3-37                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                Rev.a
 
4      ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY The ability of the road network to service vehicle demand is a major factor in determining how rapidly an evacuation can be completed. The capacity of a road is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a lane of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic, and control conditions, as stated in the 2016 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016). This section discusses how the capacity of the roadway network was estimated.
In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to reflect the range of traffic operational characteristics. These designations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition. LOS E describes traffic operating at or near capacity.
Another concept, closely associated with capacity, is "Service Volume". Service volume (SV) is defined as "The maximum hourly rate at which vehicles, bicycles or persons reasonably can be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a roadway during an hour under specific assumed conditions while maintaining a designated level of service." This definition is similar to that for capacity. The major distinction is that values of SV vary from one LOS to another, while capacity is the SV at the upper bound of LOS E, only.
Thus, in simple terms, an SV is the maximum traffic that can travel on a road and still maintain a certain perceived level of quality to a driver based on the A, B, C, rating system (LOS). Any additional vehicles above the SV would drop the rating to a lower letter grade.
This distinction is illustrated in Exhibit 12-37 of the HCM 2016. As indicated there, the SV varies with Free Flow Speed (FFS), and LOS. The SV is calculated by the DYNEV II simulation model, based on the specified link attributes, FFS, capacity, control device and traffic demand.
Other factors also influence capacity. These include, but are not limited to:
* Lane width
* Shoulder width
* Pavement condition
* Horizontal and vertical alignment (curvature and grade)
* Percent truck traffic
* Control device (and timing, if it is a signal)
* Weather conditions (good, rain, snow, fog, wind speed)
These factors are considered during the road survey and in the capacity estimation process; some factors have greater influence on capacity than others. For example, lane and shoulder width have only a limited influence on Base Free Flow Speed (BFFS 1 ) according to Exhibit 15-7 of the HCM 2016. Consequently, lane and shoulder widths at the narrowest points were observed during the road survey and these observations were recorded, but no detailed 1 A very rough estimate of BFFS might be taken as the posted speed limit plus 10 mph (HCM 2016 Page 15-15)
Surry Power Station                                          4-1                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                            Rev.O
 
measurements of lane or shoulder width were taken. Horizontal and vertical alignment can influence both FFS and capacity. The estimated FFS were measured using the survey vehicle's speedometer and observing local traffic, under free flow conditions. Free flow speeds ranged from 15 to 75 mph in the study area. Capacity is estimated from the procedures of the HCM 2016. For example, HCM Exhibit 7-l(b) shows the sensitivity of SV at the upper bound of LOS D to grade (capacity is the SV at the upper bound of LOS E).
The amount of traffic that can flow on a roadway is effectively governed by vehicle speed and spacing. The faster that vehicles can travel when closely spaced, the higher the amount of flow.
As discussed in Section 2.6, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent the prevailing conditions. Adverse conditions like inclement weather, construction, and other incidents tend to slow traffic down and often, also increase vehicle-to-vehicles separation, thus decreasing the amount of traffic flow. Based on limited empirical data, conditions such as rain reduce the values of free-flow speed and of highway capacity by approximately 10%. Over the last decade new studies have been made on the effects of rain on traffic capacity. These studies indicate a range of effects between 5% and 25% depending on wind speed and precipitation rates. As indicated in Section 2.6, we employ, a reduction in free speed and in highway capacity of 10%
for rain/light snow. The free speed and highway capacity reductions are 15% and 25%,
respectively, during heavy snow conditions.
Since congestion arising from evacuation may be significant, estimates of roadway capacity must be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the major factors that influence highway capacity is presented in this section.
Rural highways generally consist of: (1) one or more uniform sections with limited access (driveways, parking areas) characterized by "uninterrupted" flow; and (2) approaches to at-grade intersections where flow can be "interrupted" by a control device or by turning or crossing traffic at the intersection. Due to these differences, separate estimates of capacity must be made for each section. Often, the approach to the intersection is widened by the addition of one or more lanes (turn pockets or turn bays), to compensate for the lower capacity of the approach due to the factors there that can interrupt the flow of traffic. These additional lanes are recorded during the field survey and later entered as input to the DYNEV II system.
4.1    Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck locations under local heavy traffic volume conditions. This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, control at critical intersections will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that purpose, whose directions may supersede traffic control devices. See Appendix G for more information.
Surry Power Station                              4-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
The per-lane capacity of an approach to a signalized intersection can be expressed (simplistically) in the following form:
Qcap,m =  (3600) h,,i  X (G-C-- L)m = (3600) hm    X  Pm where:
acap,m          =        Capacity of a single lane of traffic on an approach, which executes movement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph) hm              =        Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on this lane that are executing movement, m; seconds per vehicle G              =        Mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles that are executing movement, m, for each signal cycle; seconds L              =        Mean "lost time" for each signal phase servicing movement, m; seconds C              =        Duration of each signal cycle; seconds Pm              =        Proportion of GREEN time allocated for vehicles executing movement, m, from this lane. This value is specified as part of the control treatment.
m              =      The movement executed by vehicles after they                      enter      the intersection: through, left-turn, right-turn, and diagonal.
The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway hm, depends in a complex way upon many factors: roadway geometrics, turn percentages, the extent of conflicting traffic streams, the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of "saturation queue discharge headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles that are not impeded by other conflicting traffic streams. This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior.
Formally, we can write, where:
hsat            =        Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicle
                =      The various known factors influencing hm fm(}            =        Complex function relating hm to the known (or estimated) values of hsat, F1, F2, ...
Surry Power Station                                4-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
The estimation of hm for specified values of hsat, F1, F2, ... is undertaken within the DYNEV II simulation model by a mathematical model 2. The resulting values for hm always satisfy the condition:
That is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always greater than, or equal to the saturation discharge headway for through vehicles. These headways (or its inverse equivalent, "saturation flow rate"), may be determined by observation or using the procedures of the HCM 2016.
The above discussion is necessarily brief given the scope of this evacuation time estimate (ETE) report and the complexity of the subject of intersection capacity. In fact, Chapters 19, 20 and 21 in the HCM 2016 address this topic. The factors, F1, F2, ... , influencing saturation flow rate are identified in equation (19-8) of the HCM 2016.
The traffic signals within the EPZ and Shadow Region are modeled using representative phasing plans and phase durations obtained as part of the field data collection. Traffic responsive signal installations allow the proportion of green time allocated (Pm) for each approach to each intersection, to be determined by the expected traffic volumes on each approach during evacuation circumstances. The amount of green time (G) allocated is subject to maximum and minimum phase duration constraints; 2 seconds of yellow time are indicated for each signal phase and 1 second of all-red time is assigned between signal phases, typically. If a signal is pre-timed, the yellow and all-red times observed during the road survey are used. A lost time (L) of 2.0 seconds is used for each signal phase in the analysis.
4.2    Capacity Estimation along Sections of Highway The capacity of highway sections -- as distinct from approaches to intersections -- is a function of roadway geometrics, traffic composition (e.g., percent heavy trucks and buses in the traffic stream) and, of course, motorist behavior. There is a fundamental relationship which relates SV (i.e., the number of vehicles serviced within a uniform highway section in a given time period) to traffic density. The top curve in Figure 4-1 illustrates this relationship.
As indicated, there are two flow regimes: (1) Free Flow (left side of curve); and (2) Forced Flow (right side). In the Free Flow regime, the traffic demand is fully serviced; the SV increases as demand volume and density increase, until the SV attains its maximum value, which is the capacity of the highway section. As traffic demand and the resulting highway density increase beyond this "critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e., the SV) can actually decline below capacity ("capacity drop"). Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e., when demand exceeds capacity), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, VF, under congested conditions.
2 Lieberman, E., "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection", McShane, W. & Lieberman, E.,
"Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach". Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. Lieberman, E., Xin, W., "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling for Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 22-26, 2012.
Surry Power Station                                            4-4                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev.O
 
The value of VF can be expressed as:
VF= Rx Capacity where:
R                =        Reduction factor which is less than unity We have employed a value of R=0.90. The advisability of such a capacity reduction factor is based upon empirical studies that identified a fall-off in the service flow rate when congestion occurs at "bottlenecks" or "choke points" on a freeway system. Zhang and Levinson 3 describe a research program that collected data from a computer-based surveillance system (loop detectors) installed on the Interstate Highway System, at 27 active bottlenecks in the twin cities metro area in Minnesota over a 7-week period. When flow breakdown occurs, queues are formed which discharge at lower flow rates than the maximum capacity prior to observed breakdown. These queue discharge flow (QDF) rates vary from one location to the next and also vary by day of week and time of day based upon local circumstances. The cited reference presents a mean QDF of 2,016 passenger cars per hour per lane (pcphpl). This figure compares with the nominal capacity estimate of 2,250 pcphpl estimated for the ETE. The ratio of these two numbers is 0.896 which translates into a capacity reduction factor of 0.90.
Since the principal objective of ETE analyses is to develop a "realistic" estimate of evacuation times, use of the representative value for this capacity reduction factor (R=0.90) is justified. This factor is applied only when flow breaks down, as determined by the simulation model.
Rural roads, like freeways, are classified as "uninterrupted flow" facilities. (This is in contrast with urban street systems which have closely spaced signalized intersections and are classified as "interrupted flow" facilities.) As such, traffic flow along rural roads is subject to the same effects as freeways in the event traffic demand exceeds the nominal capacity, resulting in queuing and lower QDF rates. As a practical matter, rural roads rarely break down at locations away from intersections. Any breakdowns on rural roads are generally experienced at intersections where other model logic applies, or at lane drops which reduce capacity there.
Therefore, the application of a factor of 0.90 is appropriate on rural roads, but rarely, if ever, activated.
The estimated value of capacity is based primarily upon the type of facility and on roadway geometrics. Sections of roadway with adverse geometrics are characterized by lower free-flow speeds and lane capacity. Exhibit 15-46 in the HCM 2016 was referenced to estimate saturation flow rates. The impact of narrow lanes and shoulders on free-flow speed and on capacity is not material, particularly when flow is predominantly in one direction as is the case during an evacuation.
The procedure used here was to estimate "section" capacity, VE, based on observations made traveling over each section of the evacuation network, based on the posted speed limits and travel behavior of other motorists and by reference to the HCM 2016. The DYNEV II simulation model determines for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its 3 Lei Zhang and David Levinson, "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004.
Surry Power Station                                            4-5                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev.O
 
capacity would be limited by the "section-specific" service volume, VE, or by the intersection-specific capacity. For each link, the model selects the lower value of capacity.
4.3    Application to the SPS Study Area As part of the development of the link-node analysis network for the study area, an estimate of roadway capacity is required. The source material for the capacity estimates presented herein is contained in:
2016 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016)
Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington, D.C.
The highway system in the study area consists primarily of three categories of roads and, of course, intersections:
* Two-Lane roads: Local, State
* Multilane Highways (at-grade)
* Freeways Each of these classifications will be discussed.
4.3.1  Two-Lane Roads Ref: HCM 2016 Chapter 15 Two lane roads comprise the majority of highways within the study area. The per-lane capacity of a two-lane highway is estimated at 1,700 passenger cars per hour (pc/h). This estimate is essentially independent of the directional distribution of traffic volume except that, for extended distances, the two-way capacity will not exceed 3,200 pc/h. The HCM 2016 procedures then estimate LOS and Average Travel Speed. The DYNEV II simulation model accepts the specified value of capacity as input and computes average speed based on the time-varying demand: capacity relations.
Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation scenarios:
* Most sections of two-lane roads within the study area is classified as "Class I", with "level terrain"; some are "rolling terrain".
    *  "Class II" highways are mostly those within urban and suburban centers.
4.3.2  Multilane Highway Ref: HCM 2016 Chapter 12 Exhibit 12-8 of the HCM 2016 presents a set of curves that indicate a per-lane capacity ranging from approximately 1,900 to 2,300 pc/h, for free-speeds of 45 to 70 mph, respectively. Based on observation, the multilane highways outside of urban areas within the study area, service Surry Power Station                              4-6                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
traffic with free-speeds in this range. The actual time-varying speeds computed by the simulation model reflect the demand and capacity relationship and the impact of control at intersections. A conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 1,900 pc/h is adopted for this study for multi lane highways outside of urban areas.
4.3.3  Freeways Ref: HCM 2016 Chapters 10, 12, 13, 14 Chapter 10 of the HCM 2016 describes a procedure for integrating the results obtained in Chapters 12, 13 and 14, which compute capacity and LOS for freeway components. Chapter 10 also presents a discussion of simulation models. The DYNEV II simulation model automatically performs this integration process.
Chapter 12 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for "Basic Freeway Segments". Exhibit 12-37 of the HCM 2016 presents capacity vs. free speed estimates, which are provided below.
Free Speed (mph):                  55      60        65      70+
Per-Lane Capacity (pc/h):        2,250    2,300    2,350    2,400 The inputs to the simulation model are highway geometrics, free-speeds and capacity based on field observations. The simulation logic calculates actual time-varying speeds based on demand:
capacity relationships. A conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 2,250 pc/h is adopted for this study for freeways.
Chapter 13 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacity, speed, density and LOS for freeway weaving sections. The simulation model contains logic that relates speed to demand volume: capacity ratio. The value of capacity obtained from the computational procedures detailed in Chapter 13 depends on the "Type" and geometrics of the weaving segment and on the "Volume Ratio" (ratio of weaving volume to total volume).
Chapter 14 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacities of ramps and of "merge" areas. There are three significant factors to the determination of capacity of a ramp-freeway junction: The capacity of the freeway immediately downstream of an on-ramp or immediately upstream of an off-ramp; the capacity of the ramp roadway; and the maximum flow rate entering the ramp influence area. In most cases, the freeway capacity is the controlling factor. Values of this merge area capacity are presented in Exhibit 14-10 of the HCM 2016 and depend on the number of freeway lanes and on the freeway free speed. Ramp capacity is presented in Exhibit 14-12 and is a function of the ramp FFS. The DYNEV II simulation model logic simulates the merging operations of the ramp and freeway traffic in accord with the procedures in Chapter 14 of the HCM 2016. If congestion results from an excess of demand relative to capacity, then the model allocates service appropriately to the two entering traffic streams and produces LOS F conditions (The HCM 2016 does not address LOS F explicitly).
Surry Power Station                              4-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
4.3.4  Intersections Ref: HCM 2016 Chapters 19, 20, 21, 22 Procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for approaches to intersections are presented in Chapter 19 (signalized intersections), Chapters 20, 21 (un-signalized intersections) and Chapter 22 (roundabouts). The complexity of these computations is indicated by the aggregate length of these chapters. The DYNEV II simulation logic is likewise complex.
The simulation model explicitly models intersections: Stop/yield controlled intersections (both 2-way and all-way) and traffic signal controlled intersections. Where intersections are controlled by fixed time controllers, traffic signal timings are set to reflect average (non-evacuation) traffic conditions. Actuated traffic signal settings respond to the time-varying demands of evacuation traffic to adjust the relative capacities of the competing intersection approaches.
The model is also capable of modeling the presence of manned traffic control. At specific locations where it is advisable or where existing plans call for overriding existing traffic control to implement manned control, the model will use actuated signal timings that reflect the presence of traffic guides. At locations where a special traffic control strategy (continuous left-turns, contra-flow lanes) is used, the strategy is modeled explicitly. A list that includes the total number of intersections modeled that are unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel is provided in Appendix K.
4.4    Simulation and Capacity Estimation Chapter 6 of the HCM 2016 is entitled, "HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools." The chapter discusses the use of alternative tools such as simulation modeling to evaluate the operational performance of highway networks. Among the reasons cited in Chapter 6 to consider using simulation as an alternative analysis tool is:
        "The system under study involves a group of different facilities or travel modes with mutual interactions involving several HCM chapters. Alternative tools are able to analyze these facilities as a single system."
This statement succinctly describes the analyses required to determine traffic operations across an area encompassing a study area operating under evacuation conditions. The model utilized for this study, DYNEV II is further described in Appendix C. It is essential to recognize that simulation models do not replicate the methodology and procedures of the HCM 2016 - they replace these procedures by describing the complex interactions of traffic flow and computing Measures of Effectiveness {MOE) detailing the operational performance of traffic over time and by location. The DYNEV II simulation model includes some HCM 2016 procedures only for the purpose of estimating capacity.
All simulation models must be calibrated properly with field observations that quantify the performance parameters applicable to the analysis network. Two of the most important of these are: (1) FFS; and (2) saturation headway, hsat* The first of these is estimated by direct Surry Power Station                              4-8                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev. O
 
observation during the road survey; the second is estimated using the concepts of the HCM, as described earlier.
It is important to note that simulation represents a mathematical representation of an assumed set of conditions using the best available knowledge and understanding of traffic flow and available inputs. Simulation should not be assumed to be a prediction of what will happen under any event because a real evacuation can be impacted by an infinite number of things -
many of which will differ from these test cases - and many others cannot be taken into account with the tools available.
4.5    Boundary Conditions As illustrated in Figure 1-2 and in Appendix K, the link-node analysis network used for this study is finite. The analysis network extends well beyond the 15-mile radial study area in some locations in order to model intersections with other major evacuation routes beyond the study area. However, the network does have an end at the destination (exit) nodes as discussed in Appendix C. Beyond these destination nodes, there may be signalized intersections or merge points that impact the capacity of the evacuation routes leaving the study area. Rather than neglect these "boundary conditions," this study assumes a 25% reduction in capacity on two-lane roads (Section 4.3.1 above) and multilane highways (Section 4.3.2 above) if there are traffic signals downstream. The 25% reduction in capacity is based on the prevalence of actuated traffic signals in the study area and the fact that the evacuating traffic volume ("main street") will be more significant than the competing ("side street") traffic volume at any downstream signalized intersections, thereby warranting a more significant percentage (75% in this case) of the signal green time. There is no reduction in capacity for freeways due to boundary conditions.
Surry Power Station                              4-9                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Volume, vph
                          +  Capacity Drop Qmax -
RQmax-
                ----.----==---=-,,..----------------
Flow egimes Density, vpm Speed,mph ill! Free    Forced, Vf - ; - - ~ I~ - - - _ _ :
R Ve - -----:----------.,- - -
                        ,              I I              I I              I I              I I              I I              I I              I I              I L-----.'-------.'-------!---------=.;.....-------+ Density, vpm I
kopt Figure 4-1. Fundamental Diagrams Surry Power Station                                      4-10                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
5    ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal guidance (see NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1) recommends that the ETE study estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the public to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is represented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.
The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of the demographic survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.
 
===5.1    Background===
In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Section C of Part IV of Appendix E of 10 CFR 50 for details):
: 1. Unusual Event
: 2. Alert
: 3. Site Area Emergency
: 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the licensee, and by the state and local offsite agencies. As a Planning Basis. we will adopt a conservative posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, that a rapidly escalating accident at the plant wherein evacuation is ordered promptly, and no early protective actions have been implemented will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume:
: 1. The ATE will be announced coincident with the siren notification.
: 2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the siren notification.
: 3. ETE are measured relative to the ATE.
We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to:
: 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.
: 2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.
It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency. For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the ATE. In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the ATE is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many will engage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an advisory will be broadcasted. Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people remaining to evacuate the EPZ after the ATE, will both be somewhat less than the estimates presented in this report.
Surry Power Station                              5-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are likely to be higher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.
The notification process consists of two events:
: 1. Transmitting information using the alert and notification systems (ANS) available within the EPZ (e.g., sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, loudspeakers).
: 2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.
The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of approximately 280 square miles and is engaged in a wide variety of activities. It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an event.
The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, some persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the emergency is declared. These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.
As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.
For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tone alert and/or radio (if available). Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day - families will be united in the evenings but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.
As indicated in Section 4.3 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, the information required to compute trip generation times is typically obtained from a demographic survey of EPZ residents. Such a survey was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F discusses the survey sampling plan, documents the survey instrument utilized, and provides the survey results. It is important to note that the shape and duration of the evacuation trip mobilization distribution is important at sites where traffic congestion is not expected to cause the evacuation time estimate to extend in time well beyond the trip generation period. The remaining discussion will focus on the application of the trip generation data obtained from the demographic survey to the development of the ETE documented in this report.
5.2    Fundamental Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.
Surry Power Station                              5-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e., to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are:
Event Number        Event Description 1            Notification 2            Awareness of Situation 3            Depart Work 4            Arrive Home 5            Depart on Evacuation Trip Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined in Table 5-1:
These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.
* An Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)
* An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leave work, travel home)
As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (i.e., the activity, 'travel home' changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described as an 'Event Sequence'; the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to the next and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.
An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work and will await their return before beginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-l(a). A household within the EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, will follow the second sequence of Figure 5-l(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.
Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time, will follow the applicable sequence in Figure 5-l(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of Figure 5-l(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.
It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e., the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.
Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.
Surry Power Station                                  5-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
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In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the preparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for many households, but that assumption is not made in this study.
5.3    Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities. (This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since it is performed on distributions - not scalar numbers).
Time Distribution No. 1. Notification Process: Activity 1  2 Federal regulations (10CFR50 Appendix E, Item IV.D.3) stipulate, "[t]he design objective of the prompt public alert and notification system shall be to have the capability to essentially complete the initial alerting and initiate notification of the public within the plume exposure pathway EPZ within about 15 minutes". Furthermore, Part V, Section B.1, item 3 of the 2019 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual states that "Notification methods will be established to ensure coverage within 45 minutes of essentially 100% of the population ... "
Given the federal regulations and guidance, and the presence of sirens within the EPZ, it is assumed that 100% of the population in the EPZ can be notified within 45 minutes. The notification distribution is provided in Table 5-2. The distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.
Distribution No. 2. Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2        3 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work quickly. Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel or farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their facility. The distribution of Activity 2  3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by the demographic survey. This distribution is also applicable for residents to leave stores, restaurants, parks and other locations within the EPZ. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.
Distribution No. 3. Travel Home: Activity 3      4 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the demographic survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.
Surry Power Station                                5-4                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Distribution No. 4. Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2. 4    5 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the demographic survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.
Distribution No. 5. Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance. It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours, wherein evacuation may not be the best protective action.
Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable - albeit at a lower capacity - under the vast majority of snow conditions. Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.
These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions. These data are provided by those households which responded to the demographic survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.
5.4    Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions. As discussed above, this study assumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the return of a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3  4) must precede Activity 4  5.
To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it is necessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities. The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution. As an outcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure. Table 5-7 presents the summing procedure to arrive at each designated distribution.
Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after the summing process is completed.
5.4.1    Statistical Outliers As discussed in the footnote to Table 5-3, some portion of the survey respondents answer "Decline to State" to some questions or choose to not respond to a question. The mobilization activity distributions are based upon actual responses. But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 500 responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given Surry Power Station                              5-5                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
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answer, but three people say "four hours" and four people say "six or more hours".
These "outliers" must be considered: are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should be dropped from the sample?
In assessing outliers, there are three alternates to consider:
: 1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon special needs;
: 2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours to return home from commuting distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);
: 3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as part of the consideration of outliers.
The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to be considered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.
There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly or in groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-parametric methods to avoid that assumption. The literature cites that limited work has been done directly on outliers in sample survey responses.
In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used:
: 1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with no overlap of activities;
: 2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home, clear snow) are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, and Table 5-8);
: 3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g.
those with access and/or functional needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate trip generation patterns for personal vehicles;
: 4) To eliminate outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses, b) the median ofthe same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted, c) the histogram of the data is inspected, and d) all values greater than 2.8 standard deviations are flagged for attention, taking Surry Power Station                                5-6                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the histogram display.
In general, only flagged values more than 2.8 standard deviations from the mean are allowed to be considered outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.
When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.
: 5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution. A typical situation that results is shown in Figure 5-3.
: 6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key aspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times:
Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve, indicating that the network loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (and earlier) congestion than otherwise modeled; The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off" slower than the comparable "normal" curve, indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.
Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data that is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. One could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is unambiguous and preserves these important features;
: 7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.
This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g., commuter returning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, using weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 5-4 presents the combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. (As discussed earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is a conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential - preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and so forth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to some extent - for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home while the commuter is still on the road.)
The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to later computations that lead to the ETE.
The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Surry Power Station                                  5-7                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.O
 
Table 5-9 {Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).
The final time period {15) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that there are no trips generated during this final time period.
5.4.2  Staged Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002 Rev. 1, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. PAZs comprising the 2-Mile Region are advised to evacuate immediately
: 2. PAZs comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2-Mile Region is cleared
: 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2-Mile Region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation
: 4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5-Mile Region are advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2-Mile Region evacuate across the 2-Mile Region boundary
: 5. The population in the 5 to 10 mile region {to the EPZ boundary) shelters in place
: 6. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%
Assumptions
: 1. The EPZ population in PAZs beyond 5 miles will shelter-in-place. A non-compliance voluntary evacuation percentage of 20% is assumed for this population.
: 2. The population in the Shadow Region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending to approximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged evacuation scenarios. That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with no shelter delay.
: 3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of the limited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or at other venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation would prove difficult.
: 4. Employees are also assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.
Procedure
: 1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2-Mile Region will be as computed based upon the results of the demographic survey and analysis.
: 2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated as follows:
: a. Identify the approximate 90th percentile ETE for the PAZs comprising the 2-Mile Region. This value, Tsce/, is obtained from simulation results. It will become the Surry Power Station                              5-8                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for each scenario.
: b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows:
: i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%
of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).
ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tseen*
iii. Following time Tseen *, the balance of trips are generated:
: 1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tseen* is~ max trip generation time) or
: 2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tseen* is> max trip generation time)
: c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios. NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 uses the statement "approximately 90 percent" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.
The value of Tseen* is 2:30 for non-heavy snow scenarios and 3:30 for heavy snow scenarios.
: 3. Staged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups:
: a. Residents with returning commuters
: b. Residents without returning commuters
: c. Residents with returning commuters and heavy snow conditions
: d. Residents without returning commuters and heavy snow conditions Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and without returning commuters; the 90th percentile two-mile evacuation time is approximately 150 minutes for good weather/rain/light snow and approximately 210 minutes for heavy snow scenarios. At the approximate 90th percentile evacuation time for the 2-Mile Region, approximately 20% of the population (who have completed their mobilization activities) advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the shelter advisory. Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.
Since the 90th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation time, after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises to meet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution. Following time Tseen', the balance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released within 15 minutes. After Tseen' +15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the un-staged trip generation distribution.
Table 5-10 provides the trip generation histograms for staged evacuation.
5.4.3    Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas The Commonwealth of Virginia Radiological Emergency Response Plan describes the notification procedures for the Surry Power Station as follows:
: 1. The Department of Conservation and Recreation will "warn and evacuate all personnel in the Chippokes Plantation State Park when notified of an emergency affecting the Surry Power Station                                  5-9                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
Park."
: 2. The Department of Wildlife Resources will "assist in warning persons in the Hog Island Wildlife Management Area in the vicinity of Surry Power Station."
: 3. The Marine Resources Commission will "provide boats and assist in warning and evacuation, as required."
As indicated in Table 5-2, this study assumes 100% notification in 45 minutes. It is assumed that this timeframe is sufficient for the notification of boaters and that resident boaters will be able to start their evacuation trip within the 4 hour and 45 minutes mobilization timeframe for residents with commuters {Table 5-9).
Table 5-9 indicates that all transients will have mobilized within 1 hour and 15 minutes; it is assumed that this allows sufficient time for campers and other transients to return to their vehicles and begin their evacuation trip.
Surry Power Station                              5-10                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities Event Sequence                    Activity                  Distribution 1  2          Receive Notification                        1 2  3          Prepare to Leave Work                        2 2,3  4          Travel Home                                  3 2,4  5          Prepare to Leave to Evacuate                4 N/A            Snow Clearance                              5 Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public Elapsed Time                Percent of (Minutes)            Population Notified 0                          0%
5                          7%
10                        13%
15                        27%
20                        47%
25                        66%
30                        87%
35                        92%
40                        97%
45                        100%
Surry Power Station                                  5-11                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work Cumulative Percent Employees Elapsed Time (Minutes)                            Leaving Work 0                                        0%
5                                        36%
10                                        56%
15                                        79%
20                                        86%
25                                        88%
30                                        97%
35                                      99.6%
40                                      100%
NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response.
That is, the sample was reduced in size to include only those households who responded to this question. The underlying assumption is that the distribution of this activity for the "Decline to State" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as those responders who provided estimates.
Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home Cumulative                                  Cumulative Elapsed Time              Percent            Elapsed Time            Percent (Minutes)            Returning Home          (Minutes)          Returning Home 0                      0%                    35                    80%
5                      5%                    40                    86%
10                    18%                    45                    89%
15                    34%                    so                    95%
20                    48%                    55                    97%
25                    62%                    60                    99%
30                    75%                    75                  100%
NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response Surry Power Station                                    5-12                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Leave Home Cumulative                                      Cumulative Elapsed Time      Percent Prepared          Elapsed Time          Percent Prepared
{Minutes)        to Leave Home              (Minutes)            to Leave Home 0                    0%                    120                    83%
15                    5%                    135                    93%
30                  19%                    150                    94.6%
45                  33%                    165                    94.6%
60                  53%                    180                    95.5%
75                  70%                    195                    99.1%
90                  75%                    210                    100%
105                  79%
NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6 11 -8 11 of Snow from Driveway Cumulative Percent Elapsed Time          Completing Snow (Minutes)                Removal 0                      17%
15                      28%
30                      44%
45                      56%
60                      71%
75                      82%
90                      86%
105                      88%
120                      91%
135                      94%
150                      96%
165                      97%
180                    100%
NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Decline to State" response Surry Power Station                                    5-13                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events Apply "Summing" Algorithm To:                    Distribution Obtained        Event Defined Distributions 1 and 2                          Distribution A              Event 3 Distributions A and 3                          Distribution B              Event 4 Distributions B and 4                          Distribution C              Event 5 Distributions 1 and 4                          Distribution D              Event 5 Distributions C and 5                          Distribution E              Event 5 Distributions D and 5                          Distribution F              Event 5 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions Distribution        Description Time distribution of commuters departing place of work/college (Event 3). Also A          applies to commuters who work/go to college within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.
B          Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).
Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home C
to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).
Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving home D
to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5) .
Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home E
to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).
Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to F
begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).
Surry Power Station                                  5-14                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.O
 
Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-Staged Evacuation Percent of Total Trips Generated Within Indicated Time Period Residents        Residents With          Residents Residents with          Without            Commuters                Without Time      Duration          Employees              Transients          Commuters            Commuters              Snow          Commuters Snow Period        (Min)        {Distribution A)        (Distribution A)    (Distribution C)      (Distribution D)    (Distribution E)      {Distribution F) 1            15                6%                      6%                  0%                  0%                  0%                    0%
2            15                34%                    34%                  0%                    3%                  0%                    1%
3            30                57%                    57%                  3%                  23%                  1%                    6%
4            15                3%                      3%                  6%                  17%                  1%                    7%
5            15                0%                    0%                  11%                  17%                  4%                    9%
6            30                0%                    0%                  29%                  17%                  13%                  21%
7            30                0%                    0%                  22%                  10%                  19%                  18%
8            60                0%                    0%                  21%                  10%                  33%                  23%
9            30                0%                    0%                  4%                    3%                11%                    7%
10            30                0%                    0%                  3%                  0%                  8%                    4%
11            15                0%                    0%                  1%                  0%                  3%                    2%
12            60                0%                    0%                  0%                    0%                  5%                    2%
13            15                0%                    0%                  0%                    0%                  1%                    0%
14            30                0%                    0%                  0%                    0%                  1%                    0%
15          600                0%                    0%                  0%                    0%                  0%                    0%
NOTE:
* Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively .
* Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.
Surry Power Station                                                        5-15                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. 0
 
Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation Percent of Total Trips Generated Within Indicated Time Period*
Residents                                    Residents Residents with          Without              Residents With          Without Time        Duration          Commuters            Commuters            Commuters Snow        Commuters Snow Period        (Min)        (Distribution C}      (Distribution D)        (Distribution E)    (Distribution F}
1            15                0%                    0%                      0%                  0%
2            15                0%                    1%                      0%                  0%
3            30                1%                    4%                      0%                  1%
4            15                1%                    4%                      0%                  2%
5            15                2%                    3%                      1%                  2%
6            30                6%                    3%                      3%                  4%
7            30                4%                    2%                      4%                  3%
8            60              78%                    80%                      6%                  5%
9            30                4%                    3%                    68%                  75%
10            30                3%                    0%                      8%                  4%
11            15                1%                    0%                      3%                  2%
12            60                0%                    0%                      5%                  2%
13            15                0%                    0%                      1%                  0%
14            30                0%                    0%                      1%                  0%
15            600                0%                    0%                      0%                  0%
                    *Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Un-Staged and Staged Evacuation .
Surry Power Station                                                        5-16                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
1          2          3                  4                5 Residents                                                                                Households wait for Commuters1 Households without 1          2          5                                            Commuters and Residents                                                                                households who do not o-----0-----0                                                          wait for Commuters (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Residents, Transients 1          2          4            5 Return to residence, away from Residence o-----0-----0-------0                                                then evacuate Residents,            1          2          5                                            Residents at home; Transients at Residence          o-----0-----0                                                        transients evacuate directly (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 1          2          3, 5 o-----0-----0 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ ACTIVITIES                                              EVENTS 1 ---+ 2 Receive Notification                              1. Notification 2 ---+ 3 Prepare to Leave Work                            2. Aware of situation 2, 3 ---+  4 Travel Home                                      3. Depart work 2, 4 ---+  5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate                      4. Arrive home
: 5. Depart on evacuation trip Activities Consume Time 0
1  Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.
2  Applies throughout the year for transients.
Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Surry Power Station                                      5-17                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Mobilization Activities 100%
    ~
  *;;      80%
  "f; C(
C 0
111
  ~
:s0
    ~      60%
ti.cl C
  *,.:;                                                                                                  - Notification QI
  -a.                                                                                                    - Prepare to Leave Work E
0 u                                                                                                      - Travel Home C
0      40%
  *,.:;                                                                                                  - Prepare Home 111 "S                                                                                                      - Time to Clear Snow 12.
0 CL
    ....0C QI
    ...u QI 20%
CL 0%
0        30 60            90          120          150          180          210      240 Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Activity (min)
Figure 5-2. Time Distributions for Evacuation Mobilization Activities Surry Power Station                                              5-18                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
icu 60.0%
QI) n, C
    ...ucucu  50.0%
Cl.
cu
  .2:
n, "S        40.0%
E
::::J u
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
I.I'! Lil I.I'! Lil      I.I'!  Lil      I.I'!      Lil      I.I'!  Lil    I.I'! Lil Lil I.I'!    Lil    I.I'!
N    r-: ....
N
                                    ....r-:  N N
r-:
N N
("(')
r-:
("(')
N
                                                                                    '<t r-:
                                                                                            '<t N
Lil r-:
Lil r-:
I.O N
00 r-:
en      ........N Center of Interval (minutes)
                                            -      Cumulative Data    -      - Cumulative Normal Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution Surry Power Station                                                  5-19                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Trip Generation Distributions
                        - Employees/Transients        -    Residents with Commuters    -    Residents with no Commuters
                        - Res with Comm and Snow      -    Res no Comm with Snow 100 Q,
  *;::    80 I-C 0
  *.;::i Ill
::I Ill l&I a.o 60 C
  *cC
  '6".o QI CD C
0
  *.;::i Ill    40
:iQ, 0
  ....a.0
    ....C QI Cl.I  20 a.
0 0          60                120                180              240                300              360              420 Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)
Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Surry Power Station                                                  5-20                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Staged and Unstaged Evacuation Trip Generation
                    -    Employees/ Transients                                  -    Residents with Commuters
                    -    Residents with no Commuters                            -    Res with Comm and Snow
                    -    Res no Comm with Snow                                  -    staged Residents with Commuters
                    -    staged Residents with no Commuters                    -    staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)
                    -    staged Residents with no Commuters (Snow)
Q.
I-C 0        80 n,
::I u
n, w >
a.o
.5 60 C
C
'6'o cu CD C
0
*.;::;    40 n,
"S Q.
0 ll.
  ....0C 20
  ...ucucu ll.
0  30      60        90      120      150      180      210      240      270        300      330      360  390      420 Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)
Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5-Mile Region Surry Power Station                                                      5-21                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
6    DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.
The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows:
Region            A grouping of contiguous evacuating PAZs that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.
Scenario          A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions. Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.
A total of 49 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of PAZs considered.
These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The PAZ configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.
Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance. The central sector coincides with the wind direction. These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (Regions R04 through Rl0) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions Rll through R41).
Regions R0l, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively. Regions R42 through R49 are identical to Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0, respectively; however, those PAZs between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (Region R0l) has evacuated.
Each PAZ that intersects the keyhole or radius is included in the Region, unless specified otherwise in the Protective Action Recommendation (PAR) determination flowchart. There are instances wherein a small portion (a "sliver") of a PAZ is within the keyhole and the population within that small portion is low (500 people or 10% of PAZ population, whichever is less). Under those circumstances, the PAZ would not be included in the Region.
A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 49 x 14 = 686 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.
Each combination of Region and Scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. The population and vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 and Appendix E are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. The scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1.
Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 - the entire EPZ. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows:
The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to 45%, which is the product of approximately 74% (the number of households with at least one commuter - see Appendix F, Figure F-5) and 61% (the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating - see Appendix F, Surry Power Station                            6-1                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Figure F-10). See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.
It can be argued that the estimate of permanent residents overstates, somewhat, the number of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel elsewhere. A rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows:
* Assume 50% of all households vacation for a period over the summer.
* Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e., 10%
of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.
* Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.
On this basis, the permanent resident population would be reduced by 5% in the summer and by a lesser amount in the off-season. Given the uncertainty in this estimate, we elected to apply no reductions in permanent resident population for the summer scenarios to account for residents who may be out of the area.
Employment is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios. Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios. This is based on the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is further estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.
Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during summer weekends during the day and less (75%) during the week. Percentages were estimated for each facility type, by season and time of day. As shown in Appendix E, there are a significant number of campgrounds in the EPZ; thus, transient activity is relatively high during summer evenings - 40%. Transient activity during the winter is less - 30% during the week, 45% on weekends, and 10% in the evening.
Note, these percentages do not apply to lodging facilities or to the major transient attractions (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Colonial Williamsburg, and Jamestown Settlement) which are discussed below.
As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 7 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the Shadow Region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the Shadow Region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows:
(          16,728    )
ZO%  X    l + 39,657 + 48,190 = Z4 %
The major transient attractions in the EPZ (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement, and Colonial Williamsburg) operating at capacity is the special event (Scenario 13).
Surry Power Station                              6-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
It is estimated that typical weekday attendance at these facilities is about 60% of capacity in the summer, while weekend attendance is about 75% of capacity in the summer. Evening attendance is less {55%) during the summer as Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and Colonial Williamsburg are closed, but Busch Gardens remains open. No transients are considered at these facilities for the winter months. See Section 3.8 for additional information on the special event.
As discussed in the footnote to Table 2-1, schools are in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances. It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios. School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances. These percentages also apply to on and off campus students at the College of William and Mary.
Lodging facilities are estimated to be 25% occupied during the day (weekdays and weekends) in the summer and 100% occupied in the evening during the summer. Many of the lodging facilities in the EPZ cater to the major transient attractions. Transients are at the major attractions during the day and return to their lodging facility in the evening. Lodging facilities are less occupied during the winter months - 15% during the week, 25% on weekends and 50%
in the evening. Note, it is assumed that lodging facilities are 50% occupied during a weekend day for the special event {Scenario 13).
Transit vehicles for the transit-dependent population and medical facilities are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population and medical facility population are present in the EPZ for all scenarios.
External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 40% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.
Surry Power Station                            6-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Re ion    Wind Direction From: De rees N/A    WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N  237-11 R04            NNE, NE        12-56 ROS              ENE, E        57 - 101 RO6                ESE        102- 123 RO7                SE        124-146 ROS                SSE        147-168 RO9              s,ssw        169- 213 RlO                SW          214- 236 Re ion    Wind Direction From: De rees                                              15 18B lSC 18D 19A 19B 2OA 2OB 21 22A 22B  23  24 Rll                N          349-11 R12              NNE          12-33 R13                NE          34-56 R14              ENE          57-78 RlS                  E          79 - 101 R16                ESE        102-123 R17                SE        124-146 RlS                SSE        147-168 R19                  s        169-191 R2O              SSW          192- 213 R21                SW          214- 236 R22              WSW          237- 258 R23                w          259- 281 R24              WNW          282- 303 R25                NW          304- 326 R26              NNW          327- 348 Surry Power Station                                              6-4                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Re ion    Wind Direction From:  De rees R27                N            349-11 R28              NNE            12-33 R29                NE            34-56 R30              ENE            57-78 R31                E            79-101 R32                ESE          102-123 R33                SE          124-146 R34              SSE, S        147 -191 R35              SSW          192- 213 R36                SW          214- 236 R37              WSW            237- 258 R38                w          259- 281 R39              WNW            282- 303 R40              NW            304- 326 R                  N          327-348 Re ion    Wind Direction From : De rees R42          5-Mile Region        N/A N/A    WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N  237 -11 R43            NNE, NE          12-56 R44              ENE, E          57-101 R45                ESE          102-123 R46                SE          124-146 R47              SSE          147-168 R48              s,ssw          169- 213 R49                SW          214- 236 Surry Power Station                                6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                              Rev. O
 
Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario      Season 1          Day of Week            Time of Day            Weather                        Special 1          Summer              Midweek                  Midday              Good                          None 2          Summer              Midweek                  Midday                Rain                        None 3          Summer              Weekend                  Midday              Good                          None 4          Summer              Weekend                  Midday                Rain                        None 5          Summer        Midweek, Weekend              Evening              Good                          None 6          Winter            Midweek                  Midday              Good                          None Rain/Light 7          Winter            Midweek                  Midday              Snow                          None 8          Winter            Midweek                  Midday          Heavy Snow                        None 9          Winter            Weekend                  Midday              Good                          None Rain/Light 10          Winter            Weekend                  Midday              Snow                          None 11          Winter            Weekend                  Midday          Heavy Snow                        None 12          Winter        Midweek, Weekend              Evening              Good                          None Special Event: Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at 13        Summer              Weekend                    Midday              Good          capacity on summer weekends Roadway Impact: Lane Closure 14        Summer              Midweek                  Midday              Good                on 1-64 Westbound 1 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
Surry Power Station                                              6-6                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                          Rev.O
 
Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios Households                          Households With                              Without                                                                                                                        On-            Off-                                      External Returning                            Returning                                                                          Special      Lodging        Medical        Campus          Campus          School        Transit      Through Scenario              Commuters                          Commuters                        Employees        Transients        Shadow          Event      Facilities    Facilities      Students        Students          Buses          Buses        Traffic 1                        45%                                  55%                        96%              75%              24%            60%          25%          100%            10%              10%            10%          100%          100%
2                        45%                                  55%                        96%              75%              24%            60%          25%          100%            10%              10%            10%          100%          100%
3                          5%                                  95%                        10%              100%              20%            75%          25%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          100%
4                          5%                                  95%                        10%              100%              20%            75%          25%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          100%
5                          5%                                  95%                        10%              40%              20%            55%          100%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          40%
6                        45%                                  55%                      100%              30%              24%            0%            15%          100%            100%            100%            100%          100%          100%
7                        45%                                  55%                      100%              30%              24%            0%            15%          100%            100%            100%            100%          100%          100%
8                        45%                                  55%                      100%              30%              24%            0%            15%          100%            100%            100%            100%          100%          100%
9                          5%                                  95%                        10%              45%              20%            0%            25%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          100%
10                          5%                                  95%                        10%              45%              20%            0%            25%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          100%
11                          5%                                  95%                        10%              45%              20%            0%            25%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          100%
12                          5%                                  95%                        10%              10%              20%            0%            50%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          40%
13                          5%                                  95%                        10%              100%              20%          100%          50%          100%              0%              0%              0%            100%          100%
14                        45%                                  55%                        96%              75%              24%            60%          25%          100%            10%              10%            10%          100%          100%
Households with Returning Commuters ........... ......... ... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.
Households without Returning Commuters ..... ........ .... Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.
Employees ...................................................... .............. EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients ...................... ................ ........ ....................... People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.
Shadow ..... ................... .. ........................ ... .................... Residents and employees in the Shadow Region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation . The basis for the values shown is a 20%
relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.
Special Event Vehicles in the EPZ visiting the major transient attractions (Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Colonial Williamsburg and Jamestown Settlement).
Lodging Facilities .......................................................... People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident staying at hotels and motels.
On/Off-Campus Students ......... ........ ..... ............ ........ ... College student vehicles at the College of William and Mary.
School Buses, Medical Facilities, Transit Buses .... ........ Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and day care centers (operated by schools), medical facilities , and transit-dependent people (1 bus/wheelchair bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).
External Through Traffic ........................ ................ ....... Traffic passing through the study area on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation . This traffic is stopped by access control 2 hours after the ATE .
Surry Power Station                                                                                                          6-7                                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario2 Households      Households On-      Off-                    External With            Without                                                  Special    Lodging    Medical                    School    Transit            Total Scenario                                      Employees        Transients    Shadow                                    Campus  Campus                      Through Returning        Returning                                                  Event    Facilities Facilities                  Buses      Buses            Vehicles Students Students                    Traffic Commuters        Commuters 1        39,657            48,190            16,728            2,621      18,312    3,960      3,627      303        244      232    93        140    15,472  149,579 2        39,657            48,190            16,728            2,621      18,312    3,960      3,627      303        244      232    93        140    15,472  149,579 3          3,966            83,881            1,743            3,494      15,688    4,950      3,627      303          0        0      0        140    15,472  133,264 4          3,966            83,881            1,743            3,494      15,688    4,950      3,627      303          0        0      0        140    15,472  133,264 5          3,966            83,881            1,743            1,398      15,688    3,630      14,509      303          0        0      0        140      6,189  131,447 6        39,657            48,190            17,425            1,048      18,434      0        2,176      303        2,435    2,324  934        140    15,472  148,538 7        39,657            48,190            17,425            1,048      18,434      0        2,176      303        2,435    2,324  934        140    15,472  148,538 8        39,657            48,190            17,425            1,048      18,434      0        2,176      303        2,435    2,324  934        140    15,472  148,538 9          3,966            83,881            1,743            1,572      15,688      0        3,627      303          0        0      0        140    15,472  126,392 10          3,966            83,881            1,743            1,572      15,688      0        3,627      303          0        0      0        140    15,472  126,392 11          3,966            83,881            1,743            1,572      15,688      0        3,627      303          0        0      0        140    15,472  126,392 12          3,966            83,881            1,743            349        15,688      0        7,255      303          0        0      0        140      6,189  119,514 13          3,966            83,881            1,743            3,494      15,688    6,600      7,255      303          0        0      0        140    15,472  138,542 14        39,657            48,190            16,728            2,621      18,312    3,960      3,627      303        244      232    93        140    15,472  149,579 2 Vehicles estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03).
Surry Power Station                                                                  6-8                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Legend GJ SPS PAZ
              \..-:. 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings WWW.W-0$11&sect;.gQV Figure 6-1. PAZs Comprising the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station                                                        6-9                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.a
 
7    GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES {ETE)
This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 49 Evacuation Regions within the SPS EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.
The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios. The ETE for the 2-Mile Region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.
The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II model outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.
7.1    Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation "Voluntary evacuees" are permanent residents within the EPZ in PAZs for which an ATE has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some permanent residents from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.
The ETE for the SPS EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20% of permanent residents located in PAZs outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate. Similarly, it is assumed that 20% of those permanent residents in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.
Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 139,650 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20% of them would evacuate. See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.
Traffic generated within this Shadow Region (including external-external traffic), traveling away from the SPS location, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.
Surry Power Station                            7-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
7 .2  Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. PAZs comprising the 2-Mile Region are advised to evacuate immediately.
: 2. PAZs comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2-Mile Region is cleared.
: 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2-Mile Region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.
: 4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5-Mile Region is advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2-Mile Region evacuate across the 2-Mile Region boundary.
: 5. The population in the 5 to 10 Mile Region (to the EPZ boundary) shelters in place.
: 6. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.
See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.
7 .3  Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ {Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).
Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows {HCM 2016, page 5-5):
The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have reached a point that most users would consider unsatisfactory, as described by a specified service measure value (or combination of service measure values). However, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared. Several measures are available for describing individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:
* Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which demand exceeds capacity during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);
* Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and
* Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions. These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.
Surry Power Station                              7-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated. Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.
At 1 hour after the ATE, Figure 7-3 displays congestion within the more populous portion of the EPZ, north of the James River. At this time, large portions of the residential population are mobilizing. Congestion is rapidly developing within the population centers of Williamsburg, Newport News, and surrounding areas. In contrast, the rural portion of the network which lies south of the James River experiences minimal congestion. Traffic volume {LOS B and C) is exhibited on Hog Island Road as SPS non-essential employees evacuate, which clears {LOS A) 5 minutes later at 1 hour and 5 minutes. White Marsh Road is operating at LOS C at this time but operates at LOS A 20 minutes later at 1 hour and 20 minutes after the ATE. State Route 10 and State Route 31 in Surry (PAZ 1) experience LOS B and LOS D conditions, respectively. At this time, about 35% of evacuating vehicles have mobilized.
Figure 7-4 displays peak traffic congestion in the study area north of James River at 2 hours after the ATE. 1-64 westbound is operating at LOS F from the Busch Gardens on-ramp in PAZ 19B to just beyond the Shadow Region. Significant congestion {LOS F) is exhibited on Monticello Ave and State Route 5 westbound in PAZ 24 as evacuees try to depart the EPZ and avoid congestion on 1-64 westbound. State Route 614 northbound from State Route 5 to Jolly Pond Road is operating at LOS F. Colonial Parkway southeast from Indian Field Creek is operating at LOS F in PAZ 19B as evacuees try to access US-17. US-17 northbound from State Route 173 to the end of the study area is mostly operating at LOS D/F. There is significant congestion {LOS F) on State Route 173 between US-17 and US-60 as evacuees try to access US-60, State Route 143, and US-17 to leave the area. Fort Eustis Boulevard {State Route 105) is mostly operated at LOS F as Fort Eustis military personnel and employees are evacuating the military base. Significant congestion {LOS F) is exhibited on US-60 southbound from Curtis Drive {PAZ 16) to Menchville Road (in the Shadow Region just south of PAZ 15). All roadways in the 2-Mile Region are operating at LOS A. All roadways in the 5-Mile Region are operating at LOS A except for a small portion of Mounts Bay Road operating at LOS B in PAZ 18B, which clears 5 minutes later at 2 hours and 5 minutes after the ATE. There is also significant traffic congestion southeast of the study area in Newport News as evacuees try to access 1-64 eastbound and 1-664 southbound to leave the area. The rural portion of the network located south of the James River is operating at LOS A except for a portion of State Route 31 in Surry {PAZ 1) which is operating at LOS B; this roadway operates at LOS A 5 minutes later at 2 hours and 5 minutes after the ATE. At this time, about 73% of evacuating vehicles have mobilized.
At 4 hours after the ATE, Figure 7-5 shows that congestion persists north of the City of Williamsburg in the Shadow Region as evacuees try to access 1-64 westbound at various interchanges. 1-64 westbound is congested from West Queens Drive (PAZ 20B) to just beyond the Shadow Region. State Route 5 westbound, west of Williamsburg, is also congested.
Congestion also persists east of the plant in the eastern portion of the City of Newport News in the Shadow Region. Yorktown (PAZ 17) is highly congested as EPZ and Shadow Region evacuees try to access US-17 northbound which is congested from the intersection with State Route 105 to beyond the study area. Congestion within the EPZ (north of the James River) is beginning to Surry Power Station                            7-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
dissipate as earlier traffic congestion has cleared on the roadways in PAZs 14, 15, 16, 18A, 18B, 18C, 18D, and PAZ 19A. Congestion persists in the southern portion of Newport News along 1-664 southbound and 1-64 eastbound. The portion of the EPZ south of the James River continues to operate at LOS A as the last of the permanent residents are mobilizing.
At 5 hours and 30 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows the EPZ is almost clear of congestion except for congestion along roadways on the northern border of PAZ 23 (Longhill Road and Olde Town Road), which clears 25 minutes later at 5 hours and 55 minutes after the ATE.
Congestion persists north of the City of Williamsburg in the Shadow Region with pronounced congestion along 1-64 westbound. Local roads in this area are congested as the ramps to access 1-64 westbound are not flowing well due to the congestion on the main thoroughfare of 1-64.
US-17 northbound from Powhatan Dr (in the Shadow Region) to the end of the study area is operating at LOS F. Finally, the ramps to access 1-664 southbound from US-60 in the southern portion of Newport News (beyond the study area) are congested.
At 7 hours after the ATE, Figure 7-7 shows that the congestion north of the City of Williamsburg in the Shadow Region is beginning to dissipate. Local roads (Newman Road, Mt Laurel Road, etc.) continue to operate at LOS F as the ramps to access 1-64 are still not flowing well due to the congestion along the main thoroughfare of 1-64 westbound. The congestion on 1-64 westbound is dissipating as the queues no longer extend into the EPZ. The ramps to access 1-664 southbound from US-60 in the southern portion of Newport News remain congested.
Figure 7-8 shows the last remnants of traffic congestion in the study area at 8 hours and 25 minutes after the ATE. Fenton Mill Road northbound is congested at the intersection with Croaker Road (State Route 607) as evacuees try to access 1-64 via the ramp from Croaker Rd.
Old Stage Road (State Route 30) is congested northbound from the interchange with 1-64 to the end of the analysis network. 1-64 westbound is operating at LOS C/D near the interchange with State Route 30. All roadways in the analysis network are operating at LOS A 15 minutes later at 8 hours and 40 minutes after the ATE.
7 .4  Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22. These figures display the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions. One figure is presented for each scenario considered.
As indicated in Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions. Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase). When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.
Surry Power Station                              7-4                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end - thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.
7 .5    Evacuation Time Estimate Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 49 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios. Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile Region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles.
The tables are organized as follows :
Table                                  Contents The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 90% of the 7-1      population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.
The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 100% of the 7-2      population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.
The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 90% of the population within the 2-Mile Region, to evacuate from the 2-Mile 7-3 Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of additional PAZs downwind in the keyhole Region.
The ETE represent the elapsed time required for 100% of the population within the 2-Mile Region, to evacuate from the 2-Mile 7-4 Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of additional PAZs downwind in the keyhole Region .
The animation snapshots described in Section 7-3 above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8. There is congestion within the EPZ north of the James River for 5 hours and 55 minutes due to the densely populated communities in this portion of the EPZ. Most of the traffic congestion is located in PAZs 15, 16, 21, 23, and 24 which are beyond the 5-Mile Region; this is reflected in the ETE statistics:
* The 90th percentile ETE for Region R0l (2-Mile Region), Region R02 (5-Mile Region) and keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles (Regions R04 through Rl0) range from 2:20 (hr:min) to 3:05 for scenarios that do not involve heavy snow. These ETE closely parallel the time needed to mobilize 90% of evacuees in the region, which is indicative of minimal traffic congestion.
Surry Power Station                                7-5                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. 0
* The 90th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) is as much as 1 hour and 50 minutes longer than the ETE for Regions R0l and R02 due to the traffic congestion in the EPZ north of the James River, beyond the 5-Mile Region. The 90th percentile ETE for Region R03 range from 3:30 to 4:20 for all non-heavy snow scenarios and from 4:35 to 5:15 for heavy snow scenarios.
* The 90th percentile ETE for keyhole regions downwind to the EPZ boundary range from 2:35 to 4:35 for scenarios that do not involve heavy snow, which is significantly longer (ranging from 15 minutes to 1 hour and 30 minutes longer) than keyholes extending to 5 miles.
* The 100th percentile ETE for all regions extending to 2 miles or to 5 miles parallel mobilization time plus travel time to the boundary of the region being evacuated, which is indicative of minimal traffic congestion and free-flowing roads. The 100th percentile ETE for regions extending to the EPZ boundary, however, exceed mobilization time by up to 2 hours and 20 minutes, which is indicative of pronounced traffic congestion.
Comparison of Scenarios 3 and 13 in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the special event, Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg (see Section 3.8), increases 90th percentile ETE by up to 10 minutes and 100th percentile ETE by up to 20 minutes. The increased transients at these facilities on a peak summer weekend greatly increases local congestion near Busch Gardens and Water Country USA; however, the bottleneck north of Williamsburg (see discussion in Section 7.3) dictates the ETE. There is sufficient roadway capacity south of the EPZ to handle the additional transient vehicles.
Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure - a single lane on 1-64 westbound from the interchange with State Route 143 - Exit 247 - in PAZ 16 to the northern boundary of the EPZ (just north of the Camp Peary interchange - Exit 238) - increases the 90th percentile ETE by at most 5 minutes. The roadway closure has no effect on regions which do not involve the evacuation of PAZs in and around the City of Williamsburg. The roadway impact scenario also has minimal impacts on the 100th percentile ETE for some regions with increases of at most 10 minutes. 1-64 westbound is normally 3 lanes in the area of the lane closure. Despite closing a lane, there are still 2 lanes available to service the evacuating traffic.
The ramps to access 1-64 are the bottlenecks in this area, not the main thoroughfare. The bottleneck on the main thoroughfare of 1-64 westbound is farther west where the road narrows to 2 lanes west of Newman Rd (State Route 199).
The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any of the major evacuation routes.
Surry Power Station                              7-6                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
7 .6  Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R42 through R4g are the same geographic areas as Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0, respectively. The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-Mile Region is go% clear and 100% clear, respectively.
The objective of a staged evacuation strategy is to ensure the ETE for the 2-Mile Region is not significantly increased (30 minutes or 25%, whichever is less) when evacuating areas beyond 2 miles. Additionally, staged evacuation should not significantly increase the ETE for people evacuating from beyond 2 miles. In all cases, as shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4, the goth and 100th percentile ETE for the 2-Mile Region is unchanged when evacuating areas beyond 2 miles.
These results indicate that when an evacuation out to the 5-Mile Region occurs, the congestion beyond the 2-Mile Region does not extend upstream to the extent that the queueing penetrates the 2-Mile Region enough to impact the ETE of the 2-Mile Region. Evacuees from within the 2-Mile Region are not impacted by those evacuating beyond 2 miles out to 5 miles.
Therefore, staging the evacuation provides no benefit to evacuees from within the 2-Mile Region.
To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents beyond the 2-Mile Region, the ETE for Regions R02 and R04 through Rl0 are compared to Regions R42 through R4g, respectively, in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. A comparison of ETE between these similar regions reveals that staging increases the ETE for those in the 2 to 5-Mile Region by up to 1 hour for the goth percentile and has no impact on the 100th percentile.
The increase in the goth percentile ETE is due to the evacuating vehicles, beyond the 2-Mile Region, sheltering and delaying the start of their evacuation. As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant "spike" (sharp increase) in the mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles. Nearly 80% of the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15-minute timeframe. This spike oversaturates evacuation routes, which increases the traffic congestion and prolongs ETE.
In summary, staged evacuation provides no benefit to evacuees in the 2-Mile Region while adversely impacting many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from the plant. Based on the guidance in NUREG-0654, Supplement 3, this analysis would result in staged evacuation not being implemented for this site.
7.7    Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (NRC guidance calls for the goth percentile). The applicable value of ETE within the chosen table may then be identified using the following procedure:
: 1. Identify the applicable Scenario:
* Season Surry Power Station                            7-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Summer Winter (also Autumn and Spring)
* Day of Week Midweek Weekend
* Time of Day Midday Evening
* Weather Condition Good Weather Rain/Light Snow Heavy Snow
* Special Event Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, the Jamestown Settlement and National Park, and Colonial Williamsburg operating at capacity
* Roadway Impact One Lane Closure on 1-64 westbound
* Evacuation Staging No, Staged Evacuation is not considered Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:
* The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.
* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain/light snow are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain/light snow apply.
* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and heavy snow are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for heavy snow apply.
* The seasons are defined as follows:
Summer assumes public school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session at normal enrollment levels.
* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.
: 2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:
* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction). This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation: from N, NNE, NE, ...
Surry Power Station                                7-8                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below:
2 Miles (Region ROl)
To 5 Miles (Regions R02, R04 through RlO, R42 through R49 for staged evacuation)
To the EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, Rll through R41)
* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the table.
: 3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected. Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:
* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.
Identify the proper column in the selected table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.
* Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.
* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.
Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:
* Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.
* It is raining.
* Wind direction is from the northeast (NE).
* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 2-Mile Region and downwind to 10 miles (to the EPZ boundary).
* The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90% of the population from within the impacted Region.
* A staged evacuation is not desired.
Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows:
: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors. However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.
: 2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction from the NE and read Region R13 in the first column of that row.
: 3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R13. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R13; it contains the ETE value of 2:50.
Surry Power Station                              7-9                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer                Summer          Summer                  Winter                              Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek              Weekend                                  Midweek                              Weekend                    Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                                        Weekend Scenario:    {1)        {2)        (3)        (4)        (5)        (6)          (7)        (8)        (9)        {10)    {11)    {12)      (13)        {14)
Midday                Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good                  Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather                Weather    Weather      Snow        Snow      Weather      Snow    Snow  Weather    Event      Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl        2:30      2:30      2:50        2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50      2:50        2:30 RO2        2:45      2:45      2:25        2:25        2:25        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:45        2:45      3:50    2:45      2:25        2:45 RO3        3:55      4:20      3:40      4 :00        3:45        3:55        4 :20        5:15        3:35        3:45      4 :35  3:30      3:45        3:55 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4        2:35      2:35      2:30        2:30        2:45        2:40        2:40        3:40        2:45        2:45    3:45    2:50      2:30        2:35 ROS        2:40      2:40      2:35        2:35        2:45        2:45        2:45        3:45        2:45        2:45      3:45    2:50      2:35        2:40 ROG        2:55      2:55      2:40        2:40        2:50        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:50        2:50      3:50    2:55      2:40        2:55 RO7        3:00      3:00      2:50        2:50        2:50        3:05        3:05        4 :00      2:50        2:50    3:55    2:50      2:50        3:00 ROS        2:50      2:50      2:30        2:30        2:30        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:45        2:45      3:50    2:45      2:30        2:50 RO9        2:45      2:45      2:30        2:30        2:30        2:55        2:55        3:55        2:45        2:45      3:50    2:45      2:30        2:45 RlO        2:30      2:30      2:20        2:20        2:20        2:50        2:50        3:50        2:45        2:45      3:45    2:40      2:20        2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll        3:05      3:05      3:00      3:00        3:00        3:05        3:05        4 :00      3:00        3:00      4 :05  3:00      3:00        3:05 R12        3:05      3:05      2:55        2:55        3:00        3:05        3:05        4:05        3:00        3:00      4 :00  3:00      2:55        3:05 R13        2:55      2:55      2:50        2:50        2:55        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:55        2:55    4 :00  3:00      2:50        2:55 R14        2:55      2:55      2:50        2:50        2:55        3:00        3:00        4:00        2:55        2:55      4 :00  3:00      2:50        2:55 RlS        3:15      3:25      3:05      3:15        3:10        3:10        3:15        4 :10      3:00        3:15      4 :00  3:00      3:05        3:15 R16        4:05      4:20      3:45      4 :05        3:55        3:50        4:15        5:05        3:45        4:00      4:50    3:45      3:45        4:05 R17        4:05      4:35      3:55      4 :15        4:05        4:10        4 :35        5:25        3:50        4 :05    4 :50  4 :00      4:05        4:10 R18        3:50      4:10      3:35      3:45        3:55        3:55        4:15        5:20        3:30        3:45      4 :45  3:40      3:40        3:50 R19        3:45      4:10      3:35      3:50        3:45        3:55        4:15        5:00        3:25        3:40      4 :35  3:40      3:40        3:45 R2O        3:15      3:20      3:05        3:20        2:50        3:10        3:25        4:05        3:00        3:15      3:55    2:40      3:10        3:15 R21        3:15      3:25      3:00      3:10        2:55        3:10        3:25        4 :10      2:55        3:05      3:55    2:55      3:05        3:15 R22        3:05      3:20      2:50        3:00        3:00        3:10        3:15        4:10        2:50        3:00      3:55    3:00      2:50        3:05 Surry Power Station                                                        7-10                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                    Rev. O
 
Summer                Summer        Summer                    Winter                          Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                    Midweek Midweek              Weekend                                  Midweek                          Weekend                    Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                                    Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)        (3)        (4)      (5)          (6)        (7)        (8)        (9)      (10)    (11)    (12)      (13)        (14)
Midday                Midday          Evening                Midday                            Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good                  Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good  Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather              Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow    Weather    Snow    Snow  Weather    Event      Impact R23        3:20      3:40      3:10      3:30      3:15        3:25        3:40        4:30      3:10      3:30    4:15    3:15      3:15        3:25 R24        3:25      3:40      3:10        3:30      3:15        3:25        3:35        4:30      3:10      3:25    4 :10  3:15      3:10        3:25 R25        3:20      3:35      3:10      3:25      3:15        3:20        3:35        4:30      3:05      3:20    4:10    3:10      3:10        3:20 R26        3:05      3:05      3:00        3:00      3:00        3:00        3:05        4:00      3:00      3:00    4 :00  3:00      3:00        3:05 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27        2:55      2:55      2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:55 R28        2:55      2:55      2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4:00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:55 R29        2:50      2:50      2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4:00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:50 R30        2:50      2:50      2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4:00      2:50      2:50    3:55    2:50      2:35        2:50 R31        3:15      3:25      3:00      3:10      3:00        3:10        3:20        4 :20      3:05      3:10    4 :05  3:00      3:00        3:15 R32        3:55      4:20      3:55      4 :10      3:55        3:45        4:10        4:55      3:40      4:00    4 :45  3:45      3:55        3:55 R33        4:05      4:30      3:55      4 :10      4:05        4:05        4:35        5:35      3:50      4:10    4 :50  3:50      4:05        4:05 R34        3:50      4:10      3:35        3:45      3:55        3:55        4:15        5:20      3:30      3:45    4 :40  3:35      3:40        3:50 R35        3:05      3:10      2:55      3:05      2:45        3:00        3:10        3:50      2:50      2:55    3:50    2:40      2:55        3:05 R36        3:05      3:20      2:50        3:00      3:00        3:05        3:15        4:05      2:45      2:55    3:55    3:00      2:55        3:10 R37        3:05      3:15      2:45        2:55      2:55        3:05        3:15        4 :10      2:50      3:00    3:50    2:55      2:50        3:05 R38        3:25      3:40      3:10      3:30      3:15        3:25        3:45        4:35      3:10      3:30    4 :15  3:15      3:10        3:25 R39        3:20      3:35      3:10      3:25      3:15        3:20        3:35        4 :30      3:10      3:25    4 :10  3:10      3:10        3:20 R40        3:15      3:35      3:05        3:20      3:10        3:20        3:35        4:30      3:05      3:20    4 :10  3:10      3:10        3:20 R41        2:55      2:55      2:35        2:35      2:35        3:00        3:00        4 :00      2:50      2:50    3:50    2:50      2:35        2:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42        3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4:15      3:25      3:25    4 :10  3:25      3:25        3:25 R43        3:10      3:10      3:15      3:15      3:20        3:15        3:15        3:55      3:20      3:20    4 :00  3:20      3:15        3:10 R44        3:15      3:15      3:20        3:20      3:20        3:15        3:20        4:00      3:20      3:20    4 :00  3:25      3:20        3:15 R45        3:25      3:25      3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4 :05      3:25      3:25    4 :05  3:25      3:25        3:25 R46        3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25      3:25        3:25        3:25        4:10      3:25      3:25    4 :20  3:25      3:25        3:25 Surry Power Station                                                      7-11                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
Summer                Summer      Summer          Winter                  Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                    Midweek Midweek              Weekend                      Midweek                  Weekend                    Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                    Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)        (3)        (4)    (5)    (6)      (7)      (8)  (9)      (10)    (11)    (12)      (13)        (14)
Midday                Midday      Evening          Midday                  Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good                  Good              Good    Good  Rain/Light Heavy  Good  Rain/Light Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather          Weather Weather  Snow    Snow  Weather  Snow    Snow  Weather    Event      Impact R47        3:25      3:25      3:25      3:25    3:25  3:25      3:25    4:15  3:25      3:25    4:15    3:25      3:25        3:25 R48        3:25      3:25      3:25        3:25  3:25  3:25      3:25    4:10  3:25      3:25    4 :10  3:25      3:25        3:25 R49        3:20      3:20      3:20      3:20    3:20  3:20      3:25    4:05  3:25      3:25    4:05    3:25      3:20        3:20 Surry Power Station                                          7-12                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer                Summer          Summer                    Winter                              Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek              Weekend                                    Midweek                            Weekend                    Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                                        Weekend Scenario:    {1)        {2)        (3)          (4)        (5)          (6)        (7)          (8)        (9)        {10)      {11)  {12)      (13)        {14)
Midday                Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good                  Good                    Good        Good    Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather                Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow      Weather      Snow      Snow  Weather    Event      Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROl        4:50      4:50      4 :45      4 :45      4:45        4:50        4 :50        6:30      4 :45      4 :45      6:30  4 :45      4:45        4:50 RO2        4:50      4:50      4:50        4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 RO3        6:05      6:55      5:40        6:30      6:10        6:10        7:05        8:25      5:30        5:55      7:25  5:40      6:00        6:15 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles RO4        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 ROS        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50        6:35      4 :50      4 :50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 ROG        4:50      4:50      4:50        4:50        4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 RO7        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50        6:35      4 :50      4 :50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 ROS        4:50      4:50      4:50        4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 RO9        4:50      4:50      4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4 :50      4:50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 RlO        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50        4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Rll        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R12        4:55      4:55      4:55        4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R13        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R14        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 RlS        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R16        5:10      5:35      4:55        5:10        5:05        5:05        5:35        6:40      4:55        5:10      6:40  4:55      4:55        5:10 R17        5:40      6:25      5:25        5:50        5:45        5:50        6:30        7:45      5:15        5:40      6:45  5:25      5:30        5:40 R18        6:00      6:55      5:40        6:15      6:10        6:05        6:45        8:25      5:25        5:55      7:25  5:35      6:00        6:05 R19        6:00      6:40      5:40        6:15      6:05        6:05        6:45        8:00      5:20        5:55      7:15  5:35      5:45        6:05 R2O        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R21        4:55      4:55      4 :55      5:15        4:55        4:55        5:05        6:40      4 :55      4 :55      6:40  4 :55      5:00        4:55 R22        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55        4:55      6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 Surry Power Station                                                        7-13                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                    Rev. O
 
Summer                Summer          Summer                    Winter                          Winter          Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                    Midweek Midweek              Weekend                                  Midweek                          Weekend                    Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                                    Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)        (3)          (4)      (5)          (6)        (7)        (8)        (9)      (10)    (11)  (12)      (13)        (14)
Midday                Midday          Evening                Midday                            Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good                  Good                  Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good  Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather              Weather      Weather      Snow        Snow    Weather    Snow    Snow  Weather    Event      Impact R23        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        5:10        5:10        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R24        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        5:00        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R25        4:55      4:55      4:55        4:55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R26        4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 Evacuate 5-Mile Region and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary R27        4:55      4:55      4:55        4:55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R28        4:55      4:55      4:55        4:55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R29        4:55      4:55      4:55        4:55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R30        4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R31        4:55      4:55      4:55        4:55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4:55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R32        5:30      5:55      5:10        5:50      5:20        5:10        5:45        6:40      4:55      5:15    6:40  4:55      5:15        5:30 R33        5:55      6:20      5:35        6:05      5:55        5:50        6:40        8:00      5:20      5:50    7:00  5:20      5:40        6:00 R34        6:00      6:55      5:40        6:15      6:10        6:05        6:45        8:25      5:25      5:55    7:25  5:30      6:00        6:05 R35        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55      6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R36        5:00      5:25      4 :55      5:20      5:05        4:55        4:55        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        5:00 R37        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4:55        6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R38        4:55      5:00      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        5:15        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R39        4:55      5:00      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        5:00        6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 R40        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4 :55        4:55        5:20        6:40      4:55      4:55    6:40  4:55      4:55        4:55 R41        4:55      4:55      4 :55      4 :55      4:55        4:55        4 :55      6:40      4 :55      4 :55    6:40  4 :55      4:55        4:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles R42        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R43        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4 :50      4:50    6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 R44        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R45        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4:50        4:50        4 :50      6:35      4 :50      4 :50    6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 R46        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50      4 :50        4:50        4:50        6:35      4:50      4:50    6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 Surry Power Station                                                      7-14                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
Summer                Summer      Summer          Winter                  Winter          Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                  Midweek Midweek              Weekend                      Midweek                  Weekend                    Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                  Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)        (3)        (4)    (5)    (6)      (7)      (8)  (9)      (10)    (11)  (12)      (13)        (14)
Midday                Midday      Evening          Midday                  Midday          Evening    Midday      Midday Region    Good                  Good              Good    Good  Rain/Light Heavy  Good  Rain/Light Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather          Weather Weather  Snow    Snow  Weather  Snow    Snow  Weather    Event      Impact R47        4:50      4:50      4:50      4:50    4:50  4:50    4:50      6:35  4:50    4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R48        4:50      4:50      4 :50      4 :50  4 :50  4:50    4:50      6:35  4:50    4:50      6:35  4:50      4:50        4:50 R49        4:50      4:50      4:50      4:50    4:50  4:50    4:50      6:35  4:50    4:50      6:35  4 :50      4:50        4:50 Surry Power Station                                          7-15                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer                Summer          Summer                  Winter                              Winter            Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                        Midweek Midweek              Weekend                                  Midweek                              Weekend                      Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                                          Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)        (3)        (4)        (5)        (6)          (7)        (8)        (9)        (10)      (11)    (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday                Midday          Evening                  Midday                              Midday            Evening    Midday        Midday Region    Good                  Good                  Good        Good    Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather                Weather    Weather      Snow        Snow    Weather        Snow      Snow  Weather      Event      Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R02      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50        2:50        2:30 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 ROS      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 ROG      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R07      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50        2:50        2:30 ROS      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R09      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50        2:50        2:30 RlO      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50        2:50        2:30 R43      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R44      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50        2:50        2:30 R45      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R46      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R47      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 R48      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3:25        2:50        2:50      3:45    2:50        2:50        2:30 R49      2:30        2:30      2:50      2:50        2:50        2:30        2:30        3 :25      2:50        2:50      3 :45  2:50        2:50        2:30 Surry Power Station                                                        7-16                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region within the Indicated Region Summer                Summer            Summer                  Winter                              Winter              Winter    Summer      Summer Midweek                                                                          Midweek Midweek              Weekend                                  Midweek                              Weekend                        Weekend      Midweek Weekend                                                                          Weekend Scenario:    (1)        (2)        (3)        (4)          (5)        (6)        (7)          (8)        (9)        (10)      (11)    (12)        (13)        (14)
Midday                  Midday          Evening                Midday                              Midday            Evening    Midday        Midday Region    Good                  Good                    Good        Good      Rain/Light    Heavy      Good      Rain/Light  Heavy  Good      Special    Roadway Rain                  Rain Weather                Weather                  Weather    Weather      Snow        Snow      Weather      Snow      Snow  Weather      Event      Impact 2-Mile Region and 5-Mile Region ROl      4 :50      4 :50      4 :45      4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R02      4:50        4:50      4:45        4:45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30    4:45      4:45        4:50 Evacuate 2-Mile Region and Downwind to 5-Miles R04      4:50        4:50      4:45        4:45        4:45        4:50        4 :50        6 :30      4:45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 ROS      4 :50      4 :50      4:45        4 :45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4 :45        4 :45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 ROG      4 :50      4 :50      4 :45      4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R07      4:50        4:50      4:45        4:45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4:45      6:30    4:45      4:45        4:50 ROS      4 :50      4 :50      4 :45      4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R09      4:50        4:50      4:45        4 :45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4 :45      6:30    4:45      4 :45        4:50 RlO      4:50        4:50      4:45        4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Downwind to 5 Miles R42      4:50        4 :50      4:45        4 :45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4 :45      6:30    4:45      4 :45        4:50 R43      4 :50      4 :50      4 :45      4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R44      4:50        4:50      4:45        4 :45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4 :45      6:30    4:45      4 :45        4:50 R45      4:50        4 :50      4:45        4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R46      4 :50      4 :50      4:45        4 :45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4 :45        4 :45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R47      4:50        4 :50      4:45        4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 R48      4:50        4:50      4:45        4 :45        4:45        4:50        4:50        6:30      4:45        4 :45      6:30    4:45      4:45        4:50 R49      4 :50      4 :50      4 :45      4:45        4 :45      4 :50      4 :50        6 :30      4 :45        4:45      6 :30  4:45      4 :45        4:50 Surry Power Station                                                        7-17                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions Re ion        Descri tion        De rees 0          2-Mile Re ion            /A ROZ        5-Mile Re ion          N/A R03            Full EPZ            N/A Re ion    Wind Direction From:    De rees
    /A    SW,      W, W,N      ,N  237-11 R04            NNE, NE            12- 56 ROS            ENE, E            57- 101 R06              ESE            102 - 123 R07                SE            124- 146 ROS              SSE            147 - 168 R09            s,ssw            169 - 213 RlO              SW            214- 236 Re ion    Wind Direction From:    De rees R11                N              349-11 R12              NNE              12- 33 R13              NE              34- 56 R14              ENE              57- 78 RlS                E            79- 101 R16              ESE            102- 123 17                SE            124- 146 RlS              SSE            147- 168 R19                s            169- 191 R20              SSW            192 - 213 R21              SW            214- 236 R22              WSW            237 - 258 R23                w            259- 281 R24            WNW              282 - 303 R25              NW            304- 326 R26              NNW            327- 348 Surry Power Station                                                7-18                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev. O
 
Re ion    Wind Direction From:  De rees R27                N            349 -11 R28              NNE            12- 33 R29              NE            34-56 R30              ENE            57-78 R31                E          79-101 R32              ESE          102- 123 R33                SE          124-146 R34            SSE, S        147 - 191 R35              SSW          192- 213 R36              SW          214- 236 R37              WSW          237- 258 R38                w          259- 281 R39            WNW            282- 303 R40              NW          304- 326 R41              NNW          327- 348 Re ion    Wind Direction From:  De rees R42          5-Mile Region        N/A N/A    WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N  237 - 11 R43            NNE, NE          12- 56 R44            ENE, E          57 -101 R45              ESE          102- 123 R46                SE          124- 146 R47              SSE          147- 168 R48            s,ssw          169- 213 R49              SW          214- 236 Surry Power Station                          7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                        Rev. O
* Plant Location Region to be 1111 Evacuated : 100%
Evacuation
                                                                                                                                                    . . Shelter, then Evacuate 1 1 20% Shadow L___J Evacuation 12-Mile Region I                          15-Mile Region  I                              IEntire EPZ I Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind Keyhole: 2-Mile Reg ion & 10 Miles Downwind    Keyhole: 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwi nd Staged Evacuation: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Dow nwind Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Surry Power Station                                                                          7-20                                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
York River
_3tat~ ~
Charles City
                                                                    /
County
                                                              /
                                                          /
Prince George County Chesapeake Oaremont                                I                                                                                Bay I
I
                                                                                                        ~~ef,  ~    -Island
                                                                                                      ~            ~
I                      a Poquoson
                                                                                                    \
I 1 I
                                                                                                                              /
Surry I County
                                                                                                                                              "'    Ne
                                                                                                                                            ~ Qi      Ne
                                                                                                                                      /
James River Dendroq Legend SPS                                                                          Isle of GJ PAZ Shadow Region 2, S, 10, 15 Mile Rings Da>*J /8/2021                  l CJPvnght: ESR I Data and Maps 2020 KLDEngineering, Domiinion www.census.gov Wight County I&sect;
                                                                                                                                --                              10 Miles Figure 7-2. SPS Shadow Region Surry Power Station                                                                                        7-21                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                    Rev. O
 
Charles City County Chai/es City 5
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS
              -- A
              -- B
              -    c D
Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Shadow Region
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station                                                                7-22                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS
              -- A
              -- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Shadow Region
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station                                                              7-23                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS
              -- A
              -- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Shadow Region
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station                                                              7-24                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Charles City County Chai/es.City 5
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS
              -- A
              -- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Shadow Region
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station                                                                7-25                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Charles City County Chai/es.City 5
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS
              -- A
              -- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Shadow Region
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 7 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station                                                                  7-26                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Charles City County Chai/es.City 5
Chesapeake Bay Poquoson LOS
              -- A
              -- B Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                ~ Shadow Region
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Miles Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours and 25 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Surry Power Station                                                                7-27                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)
            -    2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ    e 90%        e 100%
160 140 40 20 0
0:00  0:30    1:00    1:30  2:00    2:30  3:00  3:30    4 :00  4 :30  5:00  5:30  6:00    6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)
            -    2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ    e 90%        e 100%
160 140 40 20 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario Z for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                  7-28                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev.O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good {Scenario 3)
                  -  2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ      e 90%      e 100%
140 120 1111 C
;Ill
:::s
~ ;
      -Ill
      "'Cl lQQ 80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    1-
:c -        40
~
20 0
0:00  0:30    1:00    1:30    2:00  2:30    3:00    3:30    4:00    4:30    5:00  5:30    6:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain {Scenario 4)
                  -  2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ      e 90%      e 100%
140 1111 120                                                                                        *
~-
C
:::s
"'    Ill
      "'Cl lQQ
~ ;        80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    I-i -          40 20 0
0:00 0:30  1:00  1:30  2:00  2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00    4:30  5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30    7:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 4 for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                      7-29                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)
                  -      2-Mile Region    -      s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ      e 90%        e 100%
140 120 1111 C          lQQ Ill Ill
:::s "'Cl
~ ;          80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    1-
:c -          40
~
20 0
0:00    0:30    1:00    1:30    2:00    2:30  3:00    3:30    4 :00  4 :30    5:00  5:30  6:00    6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)
                      -    2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region    -    Entire EPZ      e 90%        e 100%
160 140    t - - - - - - - - - -----:::::::;;;.-----===--
20 0
0:00  0:30    1:00    1:30    2:00  2:30    3:00  3:30    4:00    4 :30  5:00  5:30  6:00    6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 6 for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                            7-30                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev.O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 7)
            -    2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ    e 90%      e 100%
160 140 40 20 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4 :00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8)
            -    2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ    e 90%      e 100%
160 140 40 20 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 8 for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                  7-31                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                Rev.O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good {Scenario 9)
                  -  2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region    -    Entire EPZ    e 90%        e 100%
140 120 1111 C
;Ill
:::s
~ ;
      -Ill
      "'Cl lQQ 80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    1-
:c -        40
~
20 0
0:00  0:30    1:00    1:30    2:00    2:30    3:00    3:30    4:00    4:30    5:00  5:30    6:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow {Scenario 10)
                  -  2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region    -    Entire EPZ    e 90%        e 100%
140 120 1111
~-
C
:::s
"'    Ill
      "'Cl lQQ
~ ;        80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    I-i -          40 20 0
0:00  0:30    1:00  1:30  2:00    2:30    3:00    3:30    4:00  4 :30  5:00  5:30  6:00    6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 10 for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                        7-32                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                          Rev.O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11)
                  -    2-Mile Region  -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ    e 90%      e 100%
140 120 1111 C          lQQ Ill Ill
:::s "'Cl
~ ;          80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    1-
:c -          40
~
20 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)
                  -    2-Mile Region  -    s-Mile Region  -    Entire EPZ    e 90%      e 100%
120 100 1111 C
i:::s ui
      "'Cl 80
~    ;
~ ~          60 1! _g1-
~
:ca, -        40 20 0
0:00  0:30    1:00    1:30    2:00    2:30    3:00    3:30  4:00    4:30    5:00  5:30    6:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 12 for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                        7-33                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)
                  -  2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region    -    Entire EPZ      e 90%        e 100%
140 120 1111 C          lQQ Ill Ill
:::s "'Cl
~ ;          80
> Ill u.i    :::s Ji _g        60
~    1-
:c -          40
~
20 0
0:00 0:30    1:00    1:30  2:00    2:30  3:00    3:30    4 :00    4 :30  5:00  5:30  6:00    6:30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)
                  -  2-Mile Region    -    s-Mile Region    -    Entire EPZ      e 90%        e 100%
160 140 40 20 0
0:00 0:30  1:00  1:30  2:00  2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00    4:30    5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30    7:00 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (h:mm)
Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 14 for Region R03 Surry Power Station                                        7-34                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                          Rev.O
 
8    TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of ETE for transit vehicles. The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups:
* residents with no vehicles available;
* residents of special facilities such as schools, day care centers (operated by schools),
medical facilities, and correctional facilities;
* access and/or functional needs population.
These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of "passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix Das equivalent to two pc's.
This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.
Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.
Specifically:
* Bus drivers must be alerted
* They must travel to the bus depot
* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 60 minutes for the James City County and Williamsburg school buses, 45 minutes for Newport News school buses, and 110 minutes for York County school buses. Vehicles evacuating medical facilities will be mobilized in 180 minutes, while buses evacuating the transit-dependent population will be mobilized in 150 minutes extending from the ATE to the time when vehicles first arrive at the facility/route to be serviced.
During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the SPS EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to Evacuation Assembly Centers (EAC) at emergency action levels of Site Area Emergency or higher, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the EAC.
As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a rapidly escalating accident. This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required. This study assumes that day care centers (operated by schools) are also evacuated to EACs and parents will pick up these children at the EACs. Picking up children at schools or day care centers (operated by schools) could add to traffic congestion at these facilities, delaying Surry Power Station                                8-1                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population. It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run (not operated by schools) day care centers prior to evacuation and that the time needed to pick up children is included in mobilization time.
The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:
* Estimate demand for transit service (discussed in Section 3)
* Estimate time to perform all transit functions
* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the EACs 8.1    ETE for Schools, Day Care Centers, Day Camps, Transit Dependent People, Medical Facilities, and Correctional Facilities The EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating children (if schools and day care centers are in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency. In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat "inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the EAC after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees. For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.
Transportation resources available were reviewed and updated/approved by the EPZ city/county emergency management agencies for use in this study. The transportation resources available, as well as the number of vehicles needed to evacuate schools, day care centers, day camps, medical facilities, correctional facilities, the transit-dependent population, and the access and/or functional needs population (discussed below in Section 8.2) are summarized in Table 8-1. As shown in the table, there are sufficient bus resources to evacuate the entire school/day care center (operated by schools)/day camp population, transit dependent population, correctional facility population, access and/or functional needs population, and ambulatory/wheelchair bound population at medical facilities in the EPZ in a single wave. However, there are not enough ambulances available to evacuate the bedridden people at medical facilities in a single wave.
When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent population should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive along the bus transit route.
Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations. The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.
Surry Power Station                              8-2                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
Evacuation of Schools, Day Care Centers, and Day Camps Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A  B  Cl Mobilization is the elapsed time from the ATE until the time the buses arrive at the school, day care center, or day camp to be evacuated. As discussed above, it is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, bus drivers would require 60 to 110 minutes (varies by city/county) to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the facility to be evacuated. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather - 10 minutes longer in rain/light snow and 20 minutes longer in heavy snow conditions.
Activity: Board Passengers (C  D)
As discussed in Sections 2.4 and 2.6, a loading time of 15 minutes for good weather (20 minutes for rain/light snow and 25 minutes for heavy snow) for school/day care/day camp buses is used.
Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D  E}
The buses servicing the schools, day care centers, and day camps are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 60 minutes after the ATE (45-minute mobilization time plus a 15-minute loading time) for Newport News in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate EAC. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school/day care center/day camp to the EPZ boundary.
Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream.
DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5-minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Section 10 in Table 10-2 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations). Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 55 to 60 minutes after the ATE for Newport News for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows:
Average Speed        (mi.)
hr Lf= 1 length of link i (mi)                                            60min.
x---
1 hr .
      ~n
      .&#xa3;.i=i
{v elay on z*m k. (mm.. ) +
1 length of link i (mi.)
                                                                              . .    (mi.)  60 min.}
x 1 hr.
current speed on lmk l -h            r.
The average speed 1 computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools, day care centers, and day camps in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-2 through Table 8-4.
1 A winter, midweek, midday scenario was used for schools and pre-schools as that is when they are in session. A summer, midweek, midday scenario was used for day camps as that is when they are in session.
Surry Power Station                                          8-3                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                          Rev.O
 
The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the EAC was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 41 mph {10% decrease), and 38 mph {15% decrease) for good weather, rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively. Speeds were reduced in Table 8-2 through Table 8-4 to 45 mph, 41 mph, and 38 mph for good weather, rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively, for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Virginia is 45 mph {see assumption 7 in Section 2.1).
Table 8-2 (good weather), Table 8-3 {rain/light snow) and Table 8-4 {heavy snow) present the following ETE {rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools, day care centers, and day camps in the EPZ:
: 1) The elapsed time from the ATE until the bus exits the EPZ; and
: 2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the EAC {Estimated Time of Arrival - ETA-to the EAC).
The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A B  C, C  D, and D  E {For example: 45 minutes + 15 + 82 = 2:25 {rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for General Stanford Elementary School, in good weather).
The average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of schools is 1 hour and 55 minutes, while the average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of day care centers and day camps is 1 hour and 45 minutes. These ETE are less than the 90th percentile ETE for the general population for an evacuation of the entire EPZ {Region R03) during Scenario 6 conditions. Thus, the evacuation of schools, day care centers, and day camps should not affect protective action decision making.
The ETA to the EAC is determined by adding the time associated with Activity    EF  {discussed below) to this EPZ evacuation time.
Activity: Travel to EACs (E  Fl The distances from the EPZ boundary to the EACs are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the nearest appropriate EAC. The EACs are mapped in Figure 10-9. For a single-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 41 mph, and 38 mph for good weather, rain/light snow, and heavy snow, respectively, are applied for this activity for buses servicing the schools/day care centers/day camps in the EPZ. The ETA to the EAC for each facility is also shown in Table 8-2 through Table 8-4.
Evacuation of Transit-Dependent People (Residents without access to a vehicle)
A detailed computation of the transit dependent people is discussed in Section 3.6. The total number of transit dependent people per PAZ was determined using a weighted distribution based on population {PAZ population divided by EPZ population multiplied by the number of transit-dependent people). The number of buses required to evacuate this population was determined using a capacity of 30 people per bus. KLD designed 46 bus routes to service the major evacuation routes in each PAZ based on the bus route descriptions provided in the Surry Power Station                            8-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
city/county emergency plans, for the purposes of this study. These routes are described in Table 10-1 and mapped in Figure 10-2 through Figure 10-8. Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along major evacuation routes, then proceed out of the EPZ.
Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A  B  Cl Mobilization time is the elapsed time from the ATE until the time the buses arrive at their designated route. The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization. As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters),
about 90% percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses begin their routes, at approximately 150 minutes after the ATE. Those residents taking longer to mobilize are assumed to rideshare with a relative, friend or neighbor. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -160 minutes in rain/light snow, 170 minutes in heavy snow conditions.
The ETEs for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.
Activity: Board Passengers (C  D)
For multiple stops along a pick-up route, (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed, "v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:
T = t + B + t = B + 2 t = B + zv ,
a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers. The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e., pickup time, P) to service passengers is:
V          V P=T--=B+-
a          a Assigning reasonable estimates:
* B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop
* v =25 mph =37 ft/sec
* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P : : : 1 minute per stop. Allowing a 30 -minute pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain/light snow and heavy snow; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain/light snow, 50 minutes in heavy snow.
Surry Power Station                              8-5                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary    (D  E)
The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software. Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.
Table 8-5 through Table 8-7 present the transit-dependent population ETE for each bus route calculated using the procedures above for good weather, rain/light snow and heavy snow, respectively.
For example, the ETE for the bus route 1 (Isle of Wight County, Route 1) is computed as 150 +
12 + 30 = 3:15 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for good weather. Here, 12 minutes is the time to travel 9.3 miles at 44.9 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 150 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.
The average single-wave ETE (3 hours and 55 minutes) for the transit dependent population equals the general population ETE at the 90th percentile ETE for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 6 conditions (winter, midweek, midday, good weather) scenario.
Thus, the evacuation of the transit-dependent population should not impact protect action decision making.
The ETA to the EAC is determined by adding the time associated with Activity      EF  (discussed below) to this EPZ evacuation time.
Activity: Travel to EACs (E  F)
The distances from the EPZ boundary to the EACs are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the EAC. The EACs are mapped in Figure 10-9. For a single-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE.
Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 41 mph, and 38 mph for good weather, rain/light snow, and heavy snow, respectively, are applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population. The estimated time to complete the second wave evacuation are presented in Table 8-5 through Table 8-7. The average second wave ETE (5 hours and 30 minutes) exceed the 90th percentile general population ETE for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 6 conditions (winter, midweek, midday, good weather) and could impact protective action decision making if there are not sufficient buses or drivers to evacuate the transit-dependent population in a single wave.
Evacuation of Medical Facilities There are sufficient transportation resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair-bound patients from medical facilities within the EPZ in a single wave, but there are not enough ambulances to transport the bedridden patients from the medical facilities within the EPZ in a single wave. As such, a second wave computation was performed and is discussed below.
Surry Power Station                              8-6                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A  B  Cl As discussed in Section 2.4 and Section 2.6, it is assumed that the mobilization time for medical facilities averages 180 minutes in good weather, 190 minutes in rain/light snow and 200 minutes in heavy snow.
Activity: Board Passengers (C  D)
Item 5 of Section 2.4 discusses transit vehicle loading times for medical facilities. Loading times are assumed to be 1 minute per ambulatory passenger, 5 minutes per wheelchair bound passenger, and 15 minutes per bedridden passenger for ambulances. Item 3 of Section 2.4 discusses transit vehicle capacities to cap loading times per vehicle type assuming concurrent loading of multiple vehicles.
Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D  E}
The travel distance along the respective evacuation routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software. Transit vehicle travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.
Table 8-8 through Table 8-10 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain/light snow, and heavy snow. The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. All ETE are rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.
For example, the calculation of ETE for the ambulatory patients at the McDonald Army Health Center during good weather is:
ETE:    180 + 15 x 1 + 25 = 220 min. or 3:40 The average single wave ETE {4:15) for medical facilities in the EPZ exceeds the 90th percentile ETE for the general population {3:55) for a winter, midweek, midday, good weather {Scenario 6) evacuation of the entire EPZ {Region R03) and could impact protective action decision making.
Activity: Vehicles Travel to EACs (E  F}. Passengers Leave ff  G}. Vehicle Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G  C  D  E}
As shown in Table 8-1, there are insufficient ambulances to evacuate the bedridden patients at the medical facilities in the EPZ. In the absence of data on the location and capacity of host medical facilities, it was assumed that these medical facilities are evacuated to evacuation assembly centers for the PAZ in which that facility is located. The following representative ETE is provided to estimate the additional time needed for a second wave evacuation of bedridden patients in medical facilities using ambulances.
Surry Power Station                              8-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Times and distances are based on facility-wide averages:
* Bedridden patients:
o Ambulance arrives at Host Facility at 4:20 (4:08 average ETE for ambulance to exit the EPZ plus 12 minutes to travel 8.5 miles - average distance to EACs from EPZ boundary at a speed of 45 mph).
o Unload patients at EAC: 15 x 2= 30 minutes.
o Driver takes 10-minute rest: 10 minutes.
o Travel time back to EPZ: 12 minutes (8.5 miles at 45 mph).
o Ambulance returns to facility: 7 minutes to travel back to the facility (average distance to EPZ = 4.6 miles for ambulances from Table 8-8 @ 45 mph).
o Bedridden patients loaded on ambulance: 2 x 15 = 30 minutes.
o Ambulance travels to EPZ boundary: 7 minutes (4.6 miles - average distance to EPZ - @ 45 mph - second wave ambulance is ready to depart at 5:50 when nearly all of the roads in the EPZ are free-flowing).
o Ambulance exits EPZ at time 4:20 + 0:30 + 0:10 + 0:12 + 0:07 + 0:30 + 0:07
                = 6:00 (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes) after the ATE.
Thus, the second wave evacuation of bedridden patients requires an additional 1 hour and 52 minutes (6:00 - 4:08 = 1:52) relative to the single wave ETE. The average ETE for a second-wave evacuation of bedridden patients (6 hours) exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile (3:55) for a winter, midweek, midday, with good weather (Scenario 6) evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) and could potentially impact protective action decision making.
Evacuation of Correctional Facilities As discussed in assumption 2c in Section 2.4, the correctional facilities in the EPZ will shelter-in-place for most situations but may evacuate if necessary. Both facilities have evacuation plans and transportation resources to evacuate in. The ETE for these facilities is discussed below.
Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A  B  Cl It is assumed that the mobilization time for correctional facilities averages 150 minutes in good weather, 160 minutes in rain/light snow and 170 minutes in heavy snow.
Activity: Board Passengers    (C  D)
It is estimated that it takes 60 minutes to load the inmates (2 minutes per inmate) onto a bus (capacity of 30 inmates per bus).
Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D  E)
As detailed in Table 8-11, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ - Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center and Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail. The total inmate population at these facilities is 643 persons. As discussed in Section 3.10, a total of 22 buses are needed to evacuate these facilities.
Surry Power Station                                8-8                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
The shortest route from each facility to the EPZ boundary, traveling away from the plant, was determined using GIS and UNITES. The routes used for each facility are detailed in Table 10-2.
The average speed for each route was computed by DYNEV using the aforementioned procedure for school evacuation. Travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed using the route distance to the EPZ boundary and the speed output by DYNEV.
For example, the ETE for Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center is calculated as follows in good weather:
: a. Buses arrive at the facility: 150 minutes
: b. Load inmates onto the buses: 30 x 2 = 60 minutes (concurrent loading on multiple buses is assumed
: c. Travel to EPZ boundary: 33 minutes (10.4 miles at 18.7 mph - average speed along route computed by DYNEV).
ETE: 150 + 60 + 33 = 4:05 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes)
The average single-wave ETE (4:10) for correctional facilities exceeds the 90th percentile ETE (3:55) for an evacuation of the general population in the entire EPZ (Region R03) under winter, midweek, midday, good weather (Scenario 6) conditions and could impact protective action decision making.
8.2    ETE for Access and/or Functional Needs Population Table 8-12 summarizes the ETE for access and/or functional needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition. The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles (not filled to capacity) to reduce the number of stops per vehicle. It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound households (HH) are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Bus speeds approximate 20 mph between HH in good weather (10% slower in rain/light snow, 15% slower in heavy snow). Mobilization times of 180 minutes were used (190 minutes for rain/light snow, and 200 minutes for heavy snow). Loading times of 5 minutes per person are assumed for ambulatory and wheelchair bound people. The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 45 mph (41 mph for rain/light snow and 38 mph for heavy snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time to the EPZ boundary. The ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first HH, travel to subsequent HH, loading time at subsequent HH, and travel time to the EPZ boundary. All ETE are rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.
Section 3.9 summarizes the number of people with access and/or functional needs who are registered with each city/county in the EPZ. Assuming no more than one access and/or functional needs person per HH implies that 254 ambulatory and 96 wheelchair bound HH need to be serviced. If 25 buses are deployed to service these access and/or functional needs HH, then each bus would require about 10 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations for a bus:
Surry Power Station                              8-9                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
: 1. Assume 25 buses are deployed, each with about 10 stops, to service a total of 254 HH.
: 2. The ETE is calculated as follows:
* Buses arrive at the first HH: 180 minutes
* Load passenger at first HH: 5 minutes
* Travel to subsequent pickup locations: 9 @ 9 minutes (3 miles @ 20 mph) = 81 minutes
* Load passenger at subsequent HH: 9@ 5 minutes= 45 minutes
* Travel to EPZ boundary: 7 minutes (5 miles @ 45 mph).
ETE: 180 + 5 + 81 + 45 + 7 = 5:20 The single wave ETE for access and/or functional needs population exceeds the 90th percentile ETE for the general population evacuating for the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 6, Scenario 7 and Scenario 8 conditions and could affect protective action decision making.
Surry Power Station                            8-10                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Table 8-1. Summary of Transportation Resources Transportation                                                    Wheelchair    Wheelchair            Passenger        Mini Resource                                  Buses      Vans        Buses        Vans    Ambulances    Car          Bus/Van Resources Available Newport News Public Schools          305        0          35            0          0          0              0 Surry County        25        5            0            0          0          0              0 York County      160        0          51            0          9          0              0 Isle of Wight County        63        0            14          0        11          0              0 Williamsburg Area Transportation Authority (WATA)              22        0            7            0          0          0              0 WJCC Schools        107        0          53            0          8          0              0 City of Williamsburg        0          0            2            0          0          0              0 Patriots Colony at Williamsburg        0          2          12          33          0          28              0 Williamsburg Landing          1        0            2            0          0          0              0 WindsorMeade Williamsburg            0          0            2            0          0          0              0 Envoy Healthcare        0          1            0            0          0          0              0 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg          0          1            0            0          0          0              0 Greenfield Living Center        0          0            0            0          0          0                1 Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail (VPRJ)        0          5            0            0          0          0              0 Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center            0        2            0            0          0          0              2 Fort Eustis      23        0            0            0          0          0              0 TOTAL:      706        16          178          33        28          28              3 Resources Needed Schools, Day Care Centers, Day Camps (Table 3-8):            423        0            0            0          0          0              0 Medical Facilities (Table 3-6):      46          0          56            0        99          0              0 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 10-1):              70        0            0            0          0          0              0 Access and/or Functional Needs Population (Table 3-9):              25        0          16            0          0          0              0 Correctional Facilities (Section 3.10):        22        0            0            0          0          0              0 Note: York County has access to 3 trolleys which are counted as buses in the table above due to similarities in passenger capacity and usage.
Surry Power Station                                                        8-11                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
Table 8-2. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Driver    Loading    Dist. To  Average  Travel Time          Dist. EPZ    Travel Time      ETA to Mobilization    Time    EPZ Bdry    Speed    to EPZ Bdry    ETE    Bdryto    from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility                        Time (min)    (min)      (mi)    (mph)        (min)    (hr:min) EAC (mi.)    to EAC (min)    (hr:min)
SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School                          45          15          5.4      3.9        82        2:25      3.0            4            2:30 Sanford Elementary School                                    45          15          2.1      36.3          3      1:05      3.0            4            1:10 Warwick River Christian School                              45          15          2.5      36.3          4        1:05      3.0            4            1:10 First Baptist Church Denbigh                                45          15          1.2      40.6          2      1:05      3.0            4            1:10 BC Charles Elementary School                                45          15          1.6      28.2          3      1:05      3.0            4            1:10 Menchville High School                                      45          15          1.3      28.8          3      1:05      3.0            4            1:10 Jenkins Elementary School                                    45          15          0.8      36.4          1      1:05      3.0            4            1:10 Katherine Johnson Elementary School                          45          15          7.0      3.9        108      2:50      4.4            6            3:00 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School                          45          15          3.9      28.1          8      1:10      4.4            6            1:20 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                                45          15          5.3      3.6        88        2:30      4.4            6            2:40 David A Dutrow Elementary School                            45          15          3.6      4.8          45        1:45      4.4            6            1:55 Mary Passage Middle School                                  45          15          4.5      4.3          63      2:05      4.4            6            2:15 Stoney Run Elementary School                                45          15          3.4      8.7          24      1:25      6.7            9            1:35 Denbigh High School                                          45          15          3.1      28.3          6      1:10      6.7            9            1:20 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 45          15          1.2      33.5          2      1:05    13.2            18            1:25 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary                                45          15          1.8      3.4          32      1:35      6.7            9            1:45 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School                        45          15          1.2      33.5          2      1:05    13.2            18            1:25 Woodside High School                                        45          15          1.2      33.5          2      1:05    13.2            18            1:25 Richneck Elementary School                                  45          15          2.4      4.9          30      1:30      6.7            9            1:40 James River Elementary School                                60          15          9.3      11.4        49        2:05      6.0            8            2:15 Magruder Elementary School                                  110          15          4.4      2.4        110      3:55    23.0            31            4:30 Waller Mill Elementary School                                110          15          4.7      4.0          70      3:15    23.0            31            3:50 Bruton High School                                          110          15          2.4      3.3        44        2:50    23.0            31            3:25 Queens Lake Middle School                                    110          15          4.5      3.4          79      3:25    23.0            31            4:00 Walsingham Academy (Lower School)                            60          15          6.0      4.2          84        2:40    23.0            31            3:15 Walsingham Academy (Upper School)                            60          15          6.0      4.2          84        2:40    23.0            31            3:15 College of William and Mary                                  60          15          4.5      3.5        77        2:35    23.0            31            3:10 Matthew Whaley Elementary School                            60          15          4.1      3.6          68      2:25    23.0            31            3:00 Surry Power Station                                                    8-12                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Driver      loading      Dist. To    Average    Travel Time                  Dist. EPZ        Travel Time        ETA to Mobilization      Time      EPZ Bdry      Speed    to EPZ Bdry        ETE        Bdryto        from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility                                  Time (min)        (min)        (mi)        (mph)        (min)        (hr:min)    EAC (mi.)        to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
Berkeley Middle School                                                      60          15          3.7        16.9            13          1:30        23.8              32              2:05 James Blair Middle School                                                  60          15          2.4        4.5            32          1:50        23.8              32              2:25 laurel Lane Elementary School                                              60          15          5.2        45.0            7          1:25          3.0                4              1:30 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School                                          60          15          6.0        45.0            8          1:25          3.0                4              1:30 DJ Montague Elementary School                                              60          15          0.5          7.7            4            1:20          3.2                4              1:25 Jamestown High School                                                      60          15          5.9        37.9            9          1:25          3.0                4              1:30 Providence Classical School                                                60          15          5.7        38.2            9          1:25          3.0                4              1:30 Matoaka Elementary School                                                  60          15          3.9          2.5          93            2:50          3.2                4              2:55 School Maximum for EPZ:            3:55                  School Maximum:          4:30 School Average for EPZ:        1:55                    School Average:        2:10 DAY CARE CENTERS2 AND DAY CAMPS Sanford School Age Program                                                45            15          2.1        36.3            4            1:05          3.0                4              1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Center                                            45            15          2.4        33.5            4            1:05          6.7                9              1:15 Denbigh Head Start Center                                                  45            15          2.4        33.5            4            1:05          6.7                9              1:15 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center                                              45            15          2.4        33.4            4            1:05          6.7                9              1:15 B.C. Charles School Age Program                                            45            15          0.5        38.9            1          1:05          3.0                4              1:10 Jenkins School Age Program                                                45            15          0.8        36.4            1          1:05          3.0                4              1:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program                                      45            15          4.8          3.5          84            2:25          4.4                6              2:35 Nelson School Age Program                                                  45            15          3.9        28.1            8          1:10          4.4                6              1:20 Mary Passage School Age Program                                            45            15          4.5        4.3            63          2:05          4.4                6              2:15 Epes School Age Program                                                    45            15          3.4          8.7            24          1:25          6.7                9              1:35 Mcintosh School Age Program                                                45            15          1.8          3.4            32          1:35          6.7                9              1:45 Greenwood School Age Program                                              45            15          0.7        31.0            1          1:05        13.2              18              1:25 Richneck School Age Program                                                45            15          2.4        4.9            30          1:30          6.7                9              1:40 York County Head Start                                                    110          15          5.3          2.9          111          4:00        23.0              31              4:35 4-H Camp                                                                    60          15          7.2          2.5          169          4:05          3.2                4              4:10 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ:              4:05        Day Care/Camp Maximum:              4:35 Day Care/Day Camp Average for EPZ:            1:45          Day Care/Camp Average:          1:55 2 It is assumed that parents will pick up children at privately run day care centers (which are not evacuated by city/county provided buses) prior to evacuation. See Table E-2 in Appendix E for a full list of day care centers in the EPZ.
Surry Power Station                                                                    8-13                                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Table 8-3. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow Driver      Loading    Dist. To  Average  Travel Time              Dist. EPZ    Travel Time      ETA to Mobilization  Time    EPZ Bdry    Speed    to EPZ Bdry      ETE    Bdryto    from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility                      Time (min)    (min)      (mi)      (mph)        (min)      (hr:min) EAC (mi.)    to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School                          55          20        5.4        2.5        128          3:25      3.0            4            3:30 Sanford Elementary School                                    55          20        2.1        2.6        48          2:05      3.0            4            2:10 Warwick River Christian School                              55          20        2.5        3.3        44          2:00      3.0            4            2:05 First Baptist Church Denbigh                                55          20        1.2      11.3          7          1:25      3.0            4            1:30 BC Charles Elementary School                                55          20        1.6      26.5          4          1:20      3.0            4            1:25 Menchville High School                                      55          20        1.3      12.2          6          1:25      3.0            4            1:30 Jenkins Elementary School                                    55          20        0.8        3.9          12          1:30      3.0            4            1:35 Katherine Johnson Elementary School                          55          20        7.0      4.9          86          2:45      4.4            6            2:55 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School                          55          20        3.9        2.1        113          3:10      4.4            6            3:20 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                                55          20        5.3        2.7        120          3:15      4.4            6            3:25 David A Dutrow Elementary School                            55          20        3.6        2.3        95          2:50      4.4            6            3:00 Mary Passage Middle School                                  55          20        4.5        2.8        98          2:55      4.4            6            3:05 Stoney Run Elementary School                                55          20        3.4      4.0          52          2:10      6.7            10            2:20 Denbigh High School                                          55          20        3.1      24.9          7          1:25      6.7            10            1:35 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 55          20        1.2        2.5          29          1:45    13.2            19            2:05 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary                                55          20        1.8      24.9          4          1:20      6.7            10            1:30 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School                        55          20        1.2      20.0          4          1:20    13.2            19            1:40 Woodside High School                                        55          20        1.2        3.2          22          1:40    13.2            19            2:00 Richneck Elementary School                                  55          20        2.4      20.8          7          1:25      6.7            10            1:35 James River Elementary School                                70          20        9.3        3.7        151          4:05      6.0            9            4:15 Magruder Elementary School                                  120          20        4.4        3.6        73          3:35    23.0            34            4:10 Waller Mill Elementary School                              120          20        4.7        2.8        100          4:00    23.0            34            4:35 Bruton High School                                          120          20        2.4        2.8        51          3:15    23.0            34            3:50 Queens Lake Middle School                                  120          20        4.5      4.3          63          3:25    23.0            34            4:00 Walsingham Academy (Lower School)                            70          20        6.0      4.2          86          3:00    23.0            34            3:35 Walsingham Academy {Upper School)                            70          20        6.0        3.0        118          3:30    23.0            34            4:05 College of William and Mary                                  70          20        4.5        3.1        88          3:00    23.0            34            3:35 Matthew Whaley Elementary School                            70          20        4.1      32.2          8          1:40    23.0            34            2:15 Surry Power Station                                                  8-14                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                    Rev. 0
 
Driver      Loading    Dist. To  Average    Travel Time          Dist. EPZ      Travel Time      ETA to Mobilization  Time    EPZ Bdry    Speed    to EPZ Bdry    ETE    Bdryto      from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility    Time (min)    (min)      (mi)      (mph)        (min)    (hr:min) EAC (mi.)    to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
Berkeley Middle School                  70          20          3.7        2.9        77        2:50    23.8            35            3:25 James Blair Middle School                70          20          2.4      41.0          3        1:35    23.8            35            2:10 Laurel Lane Elementary School            70          20          5.2      40.4          8        1:40      3.0              4            1:45 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School      70          20          6.0        2.2        165        4:15      3.0              4            4:20 DJ Montague Elementary School            70          20          0.5      28.0          1        1:35      3.2              5            1:40 Jamestown High School                    70          20          5.9      29.4          12        1:45      3.0              4            1:50 Providence Classical School              70          20          5.7        1.6        218        5:10      3.0              4            5:15 Matoaka Elementary School                70          20          3.9        1.5        158        4:10      3.2              5            4:15 School Maximum for EPZ:    5:10            School Maximum:        5:15 School Average for EPZ:  2:35              School Average:      2:50 DAY CARE CENTERS2 AND DAY CAMPS Sanford School Age Program              55          20          2.1        2.6        so        2:05      3.0              4            2:10 Denbigh Early Childhood Center          55          20          2.4        3.9          37        1:55      6.7            10            2:05 Denbigh Head Start Center                55          20          2.4        3.9          37        1:55      6.7            10            2:05 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center            55          20          2.4        3.9          37        1:55      6.7            10            2:05 B.C. Charles School Age Program          55          20          0.5      10.4          3        1:20      3.0              4            1:25 Jenkins School Age Program              55          20          0.8      12.0          4        1:20      3.0              4            1:25 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program    55          20          4.8        2.1        139        3:35      4.4              6            3:45 Nelson School Age Program                55          20          3.9        5.5        42        2:00      4.4              6            2:10 Mary Passage School Age Program          55          20          4.5        2.5        108        3:05      4.4              6            3:15 Epes School Age Program                  55          20          3.4        2.6        79        2:35      6.7            10            2:45 Mcintosh School Age Program              55          20          1.8        2.4        45        2:00      6.7            10            2:10 Greenwood School Age Program            55          20          0.7      30.2          1        1:20    13.2            19            1:40 Richneck School Age Program              55          20          2.4        3.0        49        2:05      6.7            10            2:15 York County Head Start                  120          20          5.3        3.0        108        4:10    23.0            34            4:45 4-H Camp                                70          20          5.3        1.7        185        4:35    23.0            34            5:10 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ:      4:35  Day Care/Camp Maximum:            5:10 Day Care/ Day Camp Average for EPZ:    2:25    Day Care/Camp Average:          2:40 Surry Power Station                                8-15                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev. 0
 
Table 8-4. School and Pre-School Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow Driver    Loading    Dist. To  Average  Travel Time            Dist. EPZ    Travel Time      ETA to Mobilization  Time      EPZ Bdry    Speed    to EPZ Bdry      ETE    Bdryto    from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility                      Time (min)    (min)        (mi)    (mph)        (min)      (hr:min) EAC (mi.)    to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
SCHOOLS General Stanford Elementary School                          65          25          5.4      13.2          24        1:55      3.0            5            2:00 Sanford Elementary School                                    65          25          2.1      28.0          4        1:35      3.0            5            1:40 Warwick River Christian School                              65          25          2.5      25.0          6        1:40      3.0            5            1:45 First Baptist Church Denbigh                                65          25          1.2      30.5          2        1:35      3.0            5            1:40 BC Charles Elementary School                                65          25          1.6      23.4          4          1:35      3.0            5            1:40 Menchville High School                                      65          25          1.3      23.9          3        1:35      3.0            5            1:40 Jenkins Elementary School                                    65          25          0.8      27.6          2        1:35      3.0            5            1:40 Katherine Johnson Elementary School                          65          25          7.0      11.0          38        2:10      4.4            7            2:20 Knollwood Meadows Elementary School                          65          25          3.9      20.2          12        1:45      4.4            7            1:55 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                                65          25          5.3      13.3          24        1:55      4.4            7            2:05 David A Dutrow Elementary School                            65          25          3.6      11.9          18        1:50      4.4            7            2:00 Mary Passage Middle School                                  65          25          4.5      11.8          23        1:55      4.4            7            2:05 Stoney Run Elementary School                                65          25          3.4      11.7          18        1:50      6.7            11            2:05 Denbigh High School                                          65          25          3.1      20.6          9        1:40      6.7            11            1:55 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport 65          25          1.2      33.5          2        1:35    13.2            21            2:00 Academy George J McIntosh Elementary                                65          25          1.8      3.2          34        2:05      6.7            11            2:20 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School                        65          25          1.2      33.5          2        1:35    13.2            21            2:00 Woodside High School                                        65          25          1.2      33.5          2        1:35    13.2            21            2:00 Richneck Elementary School                                  65          25          2.4      4.3          34        2:05      6.7            11            2:20 James River Elementary School                                80          25          9.3      5.5          101        3:30      6.0            10            3:40 Magruder Elementary School                                  130          25          4.4      1.9        140        4:55    23.0            36            5:35 Waller Mill Elementary School                                130          25          4.7      3.4          83        4:00    23.0            36            4:40 Bruton High School                                          130          25          2.4      2.7          53        3:30    23.0            36            4:10 Queens Lake Middle School                                    130          25          4.5      2.5        110        4:25    23.0            36            5:05 Walsingham Academy (Lower School)                            80          25          6.0      3.9          92        3:20    23.0            36            4:00 Walsingham Academy {Upper School)                            80          25          6.0      3.9          92        3:20    23.0            36            4:00 College of William and Mary                                  80          25          4.5      2.8          98        3:25    23.0            36            4:05 Matthew Whaley Elementary School                            80          25          4.1      2.8          89        3:15    23.0            36            3:55 Surry Power Station                                                    8-16                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Driver    loading    Dist. To  Average    Travel Time          Dist. EPZ      Travel Time      ETA to Mobilization  Time    EPZ Bdry    Speed    to EPZ Bdry    ETE    Bdryto      from EPZ Bdry        EAC Facility    Time (min)    (min)      (mi)      (mph)        (min)    (hr:min) EAC (mi.)    to EAC (min)      (hr:min)
Berkeley Middle School                  80          25        3.7      25.2          9        1:55    23.8            38            2:35 James Blair Middle School                80          25        2.4      4.1          35        2:20    23.8            38            3:00 laurel Lane Elementary School            80          25        5.2      38.0          8        1:55      3.0              5            2:00 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School      80          25        6.0      38.0          9        1:55      3.0              5            2:00 DJ Montague Elementary School            80          25        0.5      4.0            7        1:55      3.2              5            2:00 Jamestown High School                    80          25        5.9      38.0          9        1:55      3.0              5            2:00 Providence Classical School              80          25        5.7      38.0          9        1:55      3.0              5            2:00 Matoaka Elementary School                80          25        3.9        1.6        144        4:10      3.2              5            4:15 School Maximum for EPZ:    4:55            School Maximum:        5:35 School Average for EPZ:  2:25              School Average:      2:40 DAY CARE CENTERS2 AND DAY CAMPS Sanford School Age Program              65          25        2.1      28.0          5        1:35      3.0              5            1:40 Denbigh Early Childhood Center          65          25        2.4      21.3          7        1:40      6.7            11            1:55 Denbigh Head Start Center                65          25        2.4      21.3          7        1:40      6.7            11            1:55 HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center            65          25        2.4      21.0          7        1:40      6.7            11            1:55 B.C. Charles School Age Program          65          25        0.5      29.0          1        1:35      3.0              5            1:40 Jenkins School Age Program              65          25        0.8      27.6          2        1:35      3.0              5            1:40 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program    65          25        4.8      12.8          23        1:55      4.4              7            2:05 Nelson School Age Program                65          25        3.9      20.2          12        1:45      4.4              7            1:55 Mary Passage School Age Program          65          25        4.5      11.8          23        1:55      4.4              7            2:05 Epes School Age Program                  65          25        3.4      11.7          18        1:50      6.7            11            2:05 Mcintosh School Age Program              65          25        1.8      3.2          34        2:05      6.7            11            2:20 Greenwood School Age Program            65          25        0.7      33.3          1        1:35    13.2            21            2:00 Richneck School Age Program              65          25        2.4      4.3          34        2:05      6.7            11            2:20 York County Head Start                  130          25        5.3        2.3        139        4:55    23.0            36            5:35 4-H Camp                                80          25        7.2        1.8        237        5:45      3.2              5            5:50 Day Care/Day Camp Maximum for EPZ:      5:45  Day Care/Camp Maximum:            5:50 Day Care/Day Camp Average for EPZ:      2:15    Day Care/Camp Average:          2:30 Surry Power Station                              8-17                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                              Rev. 0
 
Table 8-5. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather One-Wave                                                                    Two-Wave Route                                                                    Route Driver            Route                  Travel    Pickup                              Travel          Driver    Travel    Pickup Route    Number      Mobilization        Length        Speed      Time      Time      ETE      Distance to    Time to  Unload  Rest    Time        Time      ETE Number3  of Buses    Time(min)          (miles)      (mph)      (min)    (min)    (hr:min)    EAC (miles)  EAC(min)    (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 1          2            150              9.3        44.9        12        30      3:15          4.3            6        5    10        31          30      4:40 2          1            150              10.7        45.0        14        30      3:15          4.3            6        5    10        34          30      4:40 3          1            150              19.7        45.0        26        30      3:30          4.3            6        5    10        58          30      5:20 4          1            150              15.3        44.0        21        30      3:25          3.9          5        5    10        46          30      5:05 5          2            150              13.1        42.8        18        30      3:20          12.5          17        5    10        52          30      5:15 6          1            150              24.3        45.0        32        30      3:35          3.3          4        5    10        69          30      5:35 7          1            150              12.0        36.1        20        30      3:20          4.2            6        5    10        42          30      4:55 8          1            150              15.0        45.0        20        30      3:20          2.0          3        5    10        43          30      4:55 9          1            150              19.8        45.0        26        30      3:30          3.4          5        5    10        58          30      5:20 10          1            150              13.3        45.0        18        30      3:20          3.3          4        5    10        39          30      4:50 11          1            150              17.3        27.6        38        30      3:40          3.4          5        5    10        74          30      5:45 12          1            150              9.1        41.6        13        30      3:15          2.0          3        5    10        28          30      4:35 13          2            150              17.2          7.6        136        30      5:20          3.3          4        5    10        so          30      7:00 14          1            150              21.4          9.8        132        30      5:15          3.3          4        5    10        61          30      7:05 15          1            150              12.1        29.4        25        30      3:25          3.3          4        5    10        41          30      4:55 16          1            150              5.6          13.2        26        30      3:30          3.3          4        5    10        30          30      4:50 17          1            150              4.4          6.5        41        30      3:45          27.4          36        5    10        48          30      5:55 18          1            150              3.6        10.1        22        30      3:25          27.3          36        5    10        47          30      5:35 19          1            150              4.2          6.8        37        30      3:40          27.3          36        5    10        48          30      5:50 20          1            150              5.2          6.0        52        30      3:55          27.3          36        5    10        51          30      6:10 21          1            150              6.2          4.5        82        30      4:25          27.3          36        5    10        53          30      6:40 22          3            150              13.3          9.8        82        30      4:25          2.5          3        5    10        38          30      5:55 23          3            150              20.4        14.2        87        30      4:30          5.7          8        5    10        63          30      6:30 24          3            150              11.4          8.6        80        30      4:20          2.5          3        5    10        34          30      5:45 25          4            150              10.8          9.1        72        30      4:15          2.5          3        5    10        32          30      5:35 3 See Table 10-1 for a description of the bus routes.
Surry Power Station                                                              8-18                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
One-Wave                                                          Two-Wave Route                                                            Route Driver    Route          Travel      Pickup                        Travel        Driver    Travel    Pickup Route  Number    Mobilization Length  Speed    Time        Time      ETE  Distance to  Time to Unload  Rest    Time        Time      ETE Number3  of Buses    Time(min)  (miles) (mph)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC(min)  (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 26        8          150      17.6  10.4      101        30      4:45      2.5        3      5    10        54          30      6:30 27        2          150      11.2  36.2      19          30      3:20      6.0        8      5    10        38          30      4:55 28        2          150      10.5  38.5      16          30      3:20      6.0        8      5    10        36          30      4:50 29        2          150      10.0  36.2      17          30      3:20      6.2        8      5    10        35          30      4:50 30        2          150      6.8    6.7      61          30      4:05      2.9        4      5    10        27          30      5:25 31        2          150      6.2    5.4      69          30      4:10      6.2        8      5    10        27          30      5:30 32        1          150      8.1    6.8      71          30      4:15      6.2        8      5    10        31          30      5:40 33        1          150      7.0    5.6      75        30      4:15      6.2        8      5    10        27          30      5:35 34        1          150      11.7    8.7      80          30      4:20      6.2        8      5    10        41          30      5:55 35        1          150      9.2    8.5      65          30      4:05      2.9        4      5    10        35          30      5:30 36        1          150      4.9    5.3      56          30      4:00      6.2        8      5    10        25          30      5:20 37        1          150      7.6    7.3      62          30      4:05      6.2        8      5    10        33          30      5:35 38        1          150      6.5    9.7      41          30      3:45      6.2        8      5    10        31          30      5:10 39        1          150      7.9    8.9      53          30      3:55      6.2        8      5    10        36          30      5:25 40        1          150      3.6    9.5      23        30      3:25      2.9        4      5    10        16          30      4:30 41        1          150      8.9    7.4      72          30      4:15      6.2        8      5    10        34          30      5:45 42        1          150      5.6    4.3      79          30      4:20      2.9        4      5    10        22          30      5:35 43        1          150      3.4    23.9        9        30      3:10      2.8        4      5    10        15          30      4:15 44        1          150      5.4    4.6      69          30      4:10      6.2        8      5    10        25          30      5:30 45        1          150      5.8    5.0      70          30      4:10      6.2        8      5    10        27          30      5:30 46        1          150      4.1    6.9      36          30      3:40      2.8        4      5    10        18          30      4:50 Maximum ETE:    5:20                                              Maximum ETE:    7:05 Average ETE:  3:55                                                Average ETE:  5:30 Surry Power Station                                            8-19                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Table 8-6. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow One-Wave                                                                      Two-Wave Route                                                                      Route Route              Travel    Pickup                              Travel            Driver    Travel    Pickup Route  Number      Mobilization Length  Speed        Time      Time      ETE      Distance to    Time to    Unload  Rest    Time        Time    ETE Number3  of Buses      (min)    (miles)  (mph)        (min)    (min)    (hr:min)  EAC (miles)  EAC (min)    (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 1          2          160        9.3    41.0        14        40        3:35          4.3          6          5    10        32        40      5:10 2          1          160        10.7    41.0        16        40        3:40          4.3          6          5    10        36        40      5:20 3          1          160        19.7    41.0          29      40        3:50          4.3          6          5    10        61        40      5:55 4          1          160        15.3    40.1          23      40        3:45          3.9          6          5    10        49        40      5:35 5          2          160        13.1    39.0          20      40        3:40        12.5          18          5    10        55        40      5:50 6          1          160        24.3    41.0        36        40        4:00          3.3          5          5    10        73        40      6:15 7          1          160        12.0    33.0          22      40        3:45          4.2          6          5    10        44        40      5:30 8          1          160        15.0    41.0          22      40        3:45          2.0          3          5    10        45        40      5:30 9          1          160        19.8    41.0          29      40        3:50          3.4          5          5    10        60        40      5:50 10          1          160        13.3    41.0        19        40        3:40          3.3          5          5    10        42        40      5:25 11          1          160        17.3    17.9        58        40        4:20          3.4          5          5    10        69        40      6:30 12          1          160        9.1    37.8        14        40        3:35          2.0          3          5    10        29        40      5:05 13          2          160        17.2    6.8        152      40        5:55          3.3          5          5    10        54        40      7:50 14          1          160        21.4    8.3        155      40        5:55          3.3          5          5    10        65        40      8:00 15          1          160        12.1    23.5        31        40        3:55          3.3          5          5    10        45        40      5:40 16          1          160        5.6    9.7        35        40        3:55          3.3          5          5    10        33        40      5:30 17          1          160        4.4      3.0        89        40        4:50        27.4          40          5    10        53        40      7:20 18          1          160        3.6    3.1        71        40        4:35        27.3          40          5    10        51        40      7:05 19          1          160        4.2      2.6        97        40        5:00        27.3          40          5    10        53        40      7:30 20          1          160        5.2    3.0        106      40        5:10        27.3          40          5    10        56        40      7:45 21          1          160        6.2    3.0        124      40        5:25        27.3          40          5    10        57        40      8:00 22          3          160        13.3    7.0        114      40        5:15          2.5          4          5    10        41        40      6:55 23          3          160        20.4    13.7        90        40        4:50          5.7          8          5    10        65        40      7:00 24        3          160        11.4    5.8        119      40        5:20          2.5          4          5    10        36        40      6:55 25        4          160        10.8    5.9        110      40        5:10          2.5          4          5    10        34        40      6:45 26        8          160        17.6    7.4        142      40        5:45          2.5          4          5    10        58        40      7:45 27          2          160        11.2    34.0          20      40        3:40          6.0          9          5    10        40        40      5:25 Surry Power Station                                                8-20                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                            Rev. 0
 
One-Wave                                                            Two-Wave Route                                                              Route Route          Travel      Pickup                        Travel        Driver    Travel      Pickup Route  Number      Mobilization Length  Speed    Time        Time    ETE    Distance to  Time to  Unload  Rest    Time        Time    ETE Number3  of Buses      (min)    (miles) (mph)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) EAC (miles) EAC (min)  (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 28          2          160        10.5  39.5      16          40      3:40      6.0        9        5    10        38          40      5:25 29          2          160        10.0  32.2      19          40      3:40      6.2        9        5    10        37          40      5:25 30          2          160        6.8    4.9      83          40      4:45      2.9        4        5    10        23          40      6:10 31          2          160        6.2    4.4      84          40      4:45      6.2        9        5    10        26          40      6:15 32          1          160        8.1    5.8      84          40      4:45      6.2        9        5    10        33          40      6:25 33          1          160        7.0    4.9      85          40      4:45      6.2        9        5    10        29          40      6:20 34          1          160        11.7  6.8      103        40      5:05      6.2        9        5    10        44          40      6:55 35          1          160        9.2    7.4      75          40      4:35      2.9        4        5    10        30          40      6:05 36          1          160        4.9    4.2      70          40      4:30      6.2        9        5    10        23          40      6:00 37          1          160        7.6    5.7      80          40      4:40      6.2        9        5    10        32          40      6:20 38          1          160        6.5    8.1      48          40      4:10      6.2        9        5    10        31          40      5:45 39          1          160        7.9    7.6      63          40      4:25      6.2        9        5    10        32          40      6:05 40          1          160        3.6    9.5      23          40      3:45      2.9        4        5    10        16          40      5:00 41          1          160        8.9    6.3      85          40      4:45      6.2        9        5    10        35          40      6:25 42          1          160        5.6    3.5      96          40      5:00      2.9        4        5    10        21          40      6:20 43          1          160        3.4    22.8      9          40      3:30      2.8        4        5    10        17          40      4:50 44          1          160        5.4    3.7      86          40      4:50      6.2        9        5    10        25          40      6:20 45          1          160        5.8    3.9      89          40      4:50      6.2        9        5    10        27          40      6:25 46          1          160        4.1    6.3      39          40      4:00      2.8        4        5    10        18          40      5:20 Maximum ETE:    5:55                                              Maximum ETE:    8:00 Average ETE:  4:30                                                Average ETE:  6:15 Surry Power Station                                            8-21                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Table 8-7. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates- Heavy Snow One-Wave                                                                    Two-Wave Route                                                                    Route Route            Travel    Pickup                              Travel          Driver    Travel    Pickup Route  Number      Mobilization Length  Speed      Time      Time      ETE      Distance to  Time to  Unload  Rest    Time        Time    ETE Number3  of Buses      (min)    (miles) (mph)      (min)    (min)    (hr:min)    EAC (miles)  EAC (min)  (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 1          2          170        9.3  38.0        15        so        3:55        4.3          7        5    10        34        so      5:45 2          1          170        10.7  38.0        17        so      4:00          4.3          7        5    10        38        so      5:50 3          1          170        19.7  38.0        31        so      4:15          4.3          7        5    10        64        so      6:35 4          1          170        15.3  37.5        24        so      4:05          3.9          6        5    10        51        so      6:10 5          2          170        13.1  37.4        21        so      4:05        12.5          20        5    10        58        so      6:30 6          1          170        24.3  38.0        38        so      4:20          3.3          5        5    10        76        so      6:50 7          1          170        12.0  31.4        23        so      4:05          4.2          7        5    10        47        so      6:05 8          1          170        15.0  38.0        24        so      4:05          2.0          3        5    10        47        so      6:00 9          1          170        19.8  38.0        31        so      4:15          3.4          5        5    10        63        so      6:30 10          1          170        13.3  38.0        21        so      4:05          3.3          5        5    10        44        so      6:00 11          1          170        17.3  16.6        63        so      4:45          3.4          5        5    10        97        so      7:35 12          1          170        9.1  35.5        15        so        3:55        2.0          3        5    10        30        so      5:35 13          2          170        17.2    5.9        173        so        6:35        3.3          5        5    10        55        so      8:40 14          1          170        21.4    7.4        173        so        6:35        3.3          5        5    10        67        so      8:55 15          1          170        12.1  19.8        37        so      4:20          3.3          5        5    10        55        so      6:25 16          1          170        5.6    7.7        44        so      4:25          3.3          5        5    10        46        so      6:25 17          1          170        4.4    6.8        39        so      4:20        27.4          43        5    10        57        so      7:05 18          1          170        3.6    9.7        23        so      4:05        27.3          43        5    10        56        so      6:50 19          1          170        4.2    5.1        49        so      4:30        27.3          43        5    10        58        so      7:20 20          1          170        5.2    4.2        74        so      4:55        27.3          43        5    10        59        so      7:45 21          1          170        6.2    2.7        138        so        6:00        27.3          43        5    10        61        so      8:50 22          3          170        13.3    5.7        139        so        6:00        2.5          4        5    10        43        so      7:55 23          3          170        20.4  10.8        113        so        5:35        5.7          9        5    10        69        so      8:00 24        3          170        11.4    5.1        134        so        5:55        2.5          4        5    10        38        so      7:45 25        4          170        10.8    5.3        123        so        5:45        2.5          4        5    10        36        so      7:30 26        8          170        17.6    6.9        153        so        6:15        2.5          4        5    10        60        so      8:25 27          2          170        11.2  38.0        18        so      4:00          6.0          9        5    10        42        so      6:00 Surry Power Station                                              8-22                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
One-Wave                                                            Two-Wave Route                                                              Route Route          Travel      Pickup                        Travel        Driver    Travel      Pickup Route  Number      Mobilization Length  Speed    Time        Time    ETE    Distance to  Time to  Unload  Rest    Time        Time    ETE Number3  of Buses      (min)    (miles) (mph)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) EAC(miles)  EAC (min)  (min) (min)    (min)      (min)  (hr:min) 28          2          170        10.5  38.0      17          50      4:00      6.0        9        5    10        39          50      5:55 29          2          170        10.0  38.0      16          50      4:00      6.2        10      5    10        39          50      5:55 30          2          170        6.8    3.7      109        50      5:30      2.9          5      5    10        30          50      7:10 31          2          170        6.2    3.1      118        50      5:40      6.2        10      5    10        33          50      7:30 32          1          170        8.1    4.6      105        50      5:25      6.2        10      5    10        39          50      7:20 33          1          170        7.0    3.7      112        50      5:35      6.2        10      5    10        35          50      7:25 34          1          170        11.7  5.1      136        50      6:00      6.2        10      5    10        46          50      8:05 35          1          170        9.2    4.6      119        50      5:40      2.9        5        5    10        38          50      7:30 36          1          170        4.9    3.0      99          50      5:20      6.2        10      5    10        28          50      7:05 37          1          170        7.6    4.0      114        50      5:35      6.2        10      5    10        38          50      7:30 38          1          170        6.5    5.5      71          50      4:55      6.2        10      5    10        34          50      6:45 39          1          170        7.9    5.0      94          50      5:15      6.2        10      5    10        40          50      7:10 40          1          170        3.6    4.5      48          50      4:30      2.9        5        5    10        22          50      6:05 41          1          170        8.9    4.7      115        50      5:35      6.2        10      5    10        44          50      7:35 42          1          170        5.6    2.3      148        50      6:10      2.9          5      5    10        23          50      7:45 43          1          170        3.4    25.0      8          50      3:50      2.8        4        5    10        17          50      5:20 44          1          170        5.4    2.5      129        50      5:50      6.2        10      5    10        29          50      7:35 45          1          170        5.8    2.7      129        50      5:50      6.2        10      5    10        31          50      7:40 46          1          170        4.1    5.2      48          50      4:30      2.8        4        5    10        25          50      6:05 MaximumETE:      6:35                                              MaximumETE:      8:55 Average ETE:  5:00                                                Average ETE:  7:00 Surry Power Station                                            8-23                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Table 8-8. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Travel Time Loading Rate                                                to EPZ Mobilization        (min per              Total Loading Dist. To EPZ      Boundary      ETE Medical Facility              Patient              (min)          person)      People  Time (min)    Bdry (mi)            (min)    (hr:min)
Ambulatory                  180              1            15          15          5.5              25        3:40 McDonald Army Health Center              Wheelchair bound            180              5            10          50          5.5              11        4:05 Bedridden                    180            15              3        30          5.5              17        3:50 Ambulatory                  180              1            45          30          0.6                2        3:35 Mennowood Retirement Community          Wheelchair bound            180              5            29        60          0.6                1        4:05 Bedridden                    180            15              9        30          0.6                2        3:35 Ambulatory                  180              1            55          30          1.3              20        3:50 Charter Senior living of Newport News    Wheelchair bound            180              5            35          60          1.3                3        4:05 Bedridden                    180            15            11        30          1.3              20        3:50 Ambulatory                  180              1              2          2          7.2              52        3:55 Morningside of Williamsburg              Wheelchair bound            180              5            30          60          7.2              14        4:15 Bedridden                    180            15            30          30          7.2              34        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            30          30          8.4              35        4:05 Colonial Manor Senior Community          Wheelchair bound            180              5            30          60          8.4              16        4:20 Bedridden                    180            15            4          30          8.4              35        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            75          30          4.3              45        4:15 Commonwealth Senior living              Wheelchair bound            180              5            25        60          4.3              19        4:20 Bedridden                    180            15              2        30          4.3              45        4:15 Ambulatory                  180              1            146        30          3.1              31        4:05 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound            180              5              6        30          3.1              31        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            20        20          8.6              44        4:05 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            180              5            13          60          8.6              19        4:20 Bedridden                    180            15            4          30          8.6              37        4:10 Wheelchair bound            180              5            130        60          2.8              13        4:15 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden                    180            15            20        30          2.8              31        4:05 Ambulatory                  180              1            46          30          4.6              31        4:05 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            180              5            4          20          4.6              39        4:00 Ambulatory                  180              1            65          30          0.8              16        3:50 Greenfield Senior living of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            180              5            10        50          0.8              11        4:05 Surry Power Station                                            8-24                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Travel Time Loading Rate                                          to EPZ Mobilization      (min per          Total Loading Dist. To EPZ      Boundary      ETE Medical Facility                      Patient    (min)            person)  People  Time (min)    Bdry (mi)            (min)    (hr:min)
Ambulatory          180                1        90        30          6.1              36        4:10 Williamsburg Landing                            Wheelchair bound    180                5        33        60          6.1              18        4:20 Bedridden          180              15        5        30          6.1              36        4:10 Ambulatory          180                1      241        30          2.6              30        4:00 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg                  Wheelchair bound    180                5        34        60          2.6              12        4:15 Bedridden          180              15        9        30          2.6              30        4:00 Ambulatory          180                1        11        11          5.1              45        4:00 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    180                5        22        60          5.1              14        4:15 Ambulatory          180                1        58        30          3.5              31        4:05 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound    180                5        20        60          3.5              12        4:15 Ambulatory          180                1      215        30          2.8              32        4:05 Eastern State Hospital                          Wheelchair bound    180                5        20        60          2.8                13      4:15 Bedridden          180              15        30        30          2.8              32        4:05 Ambulatory          180                1        28        28          0.5                24      3:55 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place                  Wheelchair bound    180                5        18        60          0.5              10        4:10 Bedridden          180              15        6        30          0.5                24      3:55 Ambulatory          180                1        5          5          8.4              110      4:55 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound    180                5        6        30          8.4              89        5:00 Wheelchair bound    180                5        43        60          8.4              69        5:10 Consulate Health Care Bedridden          180              15        44        30          8.4              89        5:00 Ambulatory          180                1      374        30          5.5              87        5:00 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    180                5        50        60          5.5              67        5:10 Bedridden          180              15        16        30          5.5              87        5:00 Maximum ETE:    5:10 Average ETE:  4:15 Surry Power Station                                              8-25                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Table 8-9. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain/Light Snow Loading Rate                  Total                    Travel Time to Mobilization        (min per                  Loading  Dist. To EPZ    EPZ Boundary      ETE Medical Facility            Patient              (min)          person)      People    Time (min)  Bdry (mi)          (min)      (hr:min)
Ambulatory                  190              1            15          15          5.5              43          4:10 McDonald Army Health Center              Wheelchair bound            190              5            10          so          5.5              19          4:20 Bedridden                    190              15            3          30          5.5              28          4:10 Ambulatory                  190              1            45          30          0.6                1          3:45 Mennowood Retirement Community          Wheelchair bound            190              5            29          60          0.6                1          4:15 Bedridden                    190              15            9          30          0.6                1          3:45 Ambulatory                  190              1            55          30          1.3              23          4:05 Charter Senior Living of Newport News    Wheelchair bound            190              5            35          60          1.3                8          4:20 Bedridden                    190              15            11          30          1.3              23          4:05 Ambulatory                  190              1            2          2          7.2              55          4:10 Morningside of Williamsburg              Wheelchair bound            190              5            30          60          7.2              20          4:30 Bedridden                    190              15            30          30          7.2              37          4:20 Ambulatory                  190              1            30          30          8.4              39          4:20 Colonial Manor Senior Community          Wheelchair bound            190              5            30          60          8.4              19          4:30 Bedridden                    190              15            4          30          8.4              39          4:20 Ambulatory                  190              1            75          30          4.3              42          4:25 Commonwealth Senior Living              Wheelchair bound            190              5            25          60          4.3              17          4:30 Bedridden                    190              15            2          30          4.3              42          4:25 Ambulatory                  190              1          146          30          3.1              64          4:45 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound            190              5            6          30          3.1              64          4:45 Ambulatory                  190              1            20          20          8.6              74          4:45 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            190              5            13          60          8.6              35          4:45 Bedridden                    190              15            4          30          8.6              60          4:40 Wheelchair bound            190              5          130          60          2.8              30          4:40 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden                    190              15            20          30          2.8              59          4:40 Ambulatory                  190              1            46          30          4.6              63          4:45 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            190              5            4          20          4.6              68          4:40 Ambulatory                  190              1            65          30          0.8              38          4:20 Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound            190              5            10          so          0.8              24          4:25 Williamsburg Landing                    Ambulatory                  190              1            90          30          6.1              58          4:40 Surry Power Station                                            8-26                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Loading Rate          Total                  Travel Time to Mobilization      (min per          Loading  Dist. To EPZ    EPZ Boundary      ETE Medical Facility                    Patient      (min)            person)  People Time (min)  Bdry (mi)          (min)      (hr:min)
Wheelchair bound    190                5        33      60          6.1              34          4:45 Bedridden          190                15        5      30          6.1              58          4:40 Ambulatory          190                1      241      30          2.6              64          4:45 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg                  Wheelchair bound    190                5        34      60          2.6              36          4:50 Bedridden          190                15        9      30          2.6              64          4:45 Ambulatory          190                1        11      11          5.1              70          4:35 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    190                5        22      60          5.1              34          4:45 Ambulatory          190                1        58      30          3.5              60          4:40 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound    190                5        20      60          3.5              42          4:55 Ambulatory          190                1      215      30          2.8              58          4:40 Eastern State Hospital                          Wheelchair bound    190                5        20      60          2.8              32          4:45 Bedridden          190                15        30      30          2.8              58          4:40 Ambulatory          190                1        28      28          0.5              32          4:10 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place                  Wheelchair bound    190                5        18      60          0.5              23          4:35 Bedridden          190                15        6      30          0.5              32          4:15 Ambulatory          190                1        5        5          8.4            138          5:35 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound    190                5        6      30          8.4            118          5:40 Wheelchair bound    190                5        43      60          8.4              97          5:50 Consulate Health Care Bedridden          190                15        44      30          8.4            118          5:40 Ambulatory          190                1      374      30          5.5            116          5:40 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    190                5        50      60          5.5              95          5:45 Bedridden          190                15        16      30          5.5            116          5:40 Maximum ETE:      5:50 Average ETE:    4:40 Surry Power Station                                              8-27                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                    Rev. O
 
Table 8-10. Medical Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates - Heavy Snow Loading Rate                Total                    Travel Time to Mobilization        (min per                Loading  Dist. To EPZ    EPZ Boundary      ETE Medical Facility            Patient            (min)              person)    People    Time (min)  Bdry (mi)          (min)      (hr:min)
Ambulatory                200                1          15          15          5.5              64          4:40 McDonald Army Health Center              Wheelchair bound          200                5          10          so          5.5              38          4:50 Bedridden                  200                15            3          30          5.5              52          4:45 Ambulatory                200                1          45          30          0.6                1          3:55 Mennowood Retirement Community          Wheelchair bound          200                5          29          60          0.6                1          4:25 Bedridden                  200                15            9          30          0.6                1          3:55 Ambulatory                200                1          55          30          1.3              33          4:25 Charter Senior Living of Newport News    Wheelchair bound          200                5          35          60          1.3              29          4:50 Bedridden                  200                15          11          30          1.3              33          4:25 Ambulatory                200                1            2          2          7.2              83          4:45 Morningside of Williamsburg              Wheelchair bound          200                5          30          60          7.2              56          5:20 Bedridden                  200                15          30          30          7.2              69          5:00 Ambulatory                200                1          30          30          8.4              70          5:00 Colonial Manor Senior Community          Wheelchair bound          200                5          30          60          8.4              58          5:20 Bedridden                  200                15            4          30          8.4              70          5:00 Ambulatory                200                1          75          30          4.3              84          5:15 Commonwealth Senior Living              Wheelchair bound          200                5          25          60          4.3              65          5:25 Bedridden                  200                15            2          30          4.3              84          5:15 Ambulatory                200                1          146          30          3.1              78          5:10 Verena At The Reserve Wheelchair bound          200                5            6          30          3.1              78          5:10 Ambulatory                200                1          20          20          8.6              83          5:05 Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg Wheelchair bound          200                5          13          60          8.6              59          5:20 Bedridden                  200                15            4          30          8.6              79          5:10 Wheelchair bound          200                5          130          60          2.8              48          5:10 Envoy of Williamsburg Bedridden                  200                15          20          30          2.8              66          5:00 Ambulatory                200                1          46          30          4.6              72          5:05 Spring Arbor of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound          200                5            4          20          4.6              92          5:15 Ambulatory                200                1          65          30          0.8              30          4:20 Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg Wheelchair bound          200                5          10          so          0.8              20          4:30 Williamsburg Landing                    Ambulatory                200                1          90          30          6.1              78          5:10 Surry Power Station                                            8-28                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Loading Rate          Total                  Travel Time to Mobilization      (min per          Loading  Dist. To EPZ    EPZ Boundary      ETE Medical Facility                    Patient      (min)            person)  People Time (min)  Bdry (mi)          (min)      (hr:min)
Wheelchair bound    200                5        33      60          6.1              54          5:15 Bedridden          200                15        5      30          6.1              78          5:10 Ambulatory          200                1      241      30          2.6              66          5:00 Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg                  Wheelchair bound    200                5        34      60          2.6              47          5:10 Bedridden          200                15        9      30          2.6              66          5:00 Ambulatory          200                1        11      11          5.1              80          4:55 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    200                5        22      60          5.1              54          5:15 Ambulatory          200                1        58      30          3.5              71          5:05 Edgeworth Park at New Town Wheelchair bound    200                5        20      60          3.5              58          5:20 Ambulatory          200                1      215      30          2.8              73          5:05 Eastern State Hospital                          Wheelchair bound    200                5        20      60          2.8              50          5:10 Bedridden          200                15        30      30          2.8              73          5:05 Ambulatory          200                1        28      28          0.5              26          4:15 Pavilion At Williamsburg Place                  Wheelchair bound    200                5        18      60          0.5              29          4:50 Bedridden          200                15        6      30          0.5              26          4:20 Ambulatory          200                1        5        5          8.4            188          6:35 English Meadows Williamsburg Campus Wheelchair bound    200                5        6      30          8.4            165          6:35 Wheelchair bound    200                5        43      60          8.4            143          6:45 Consulate Health Care Bedridden          200                15        44      30          8.4            165          6:35 Ambulatory          200                1      374      30          5.5            163          6:35 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-Williamsburg Wheelchair bound    200                5        50      60          5.5            141          6:45 Bedridden          200                15        16      30          5.5            163          6:35 Maximum ETE:      6:45 Average ETE:    5:10 Surry Power Station                                              8-29                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                    Rev. 0
 
Table 8-11. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates Travel Loading                                                        Time to Rate                          Total                            EPZ Mobilization  Number        (min per        Number of      Loading      Dist. To EPZ    Boundary        ETE Correctional Facility          Weather Conditions        (min)      of Buses        person)        Inmates      Time (min)      Bdry (mi)        (min)        (hr:min)
Good                      150                                                                                          33          4:05 Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center      Rain                      160            2              2              48            60            10.4            40          4:20 Snow                      170                                                                                          65          4:55 Good                      150                                                                                          11          3:45 Virginia Peninsula Regional Jail        Rain                      160          20              2              595            60              8.1            12          3:55 Snow                      170                                                                                          13          4:05 Maximum ETE:        4:55 Average ETE:      4:10 Table 8-12. Access and/or Functional Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Total        Travel Mobiliza-    Loading                      Loading      Time to People                                                    tion      Time at        Travel to      Time at          EPZ Requiring  Vehicles                      Weather        Time        l51 Stop    Subsequent    Subsequent      Boundary          ETE Vehicle Type      Vehicle  deployed          Stops        Conditions    (min)        (min)      Stops (min)    Stops (min)      (min)      (hr:min)
Good            180                        81                            7            5:20 Buses            254        25            10          Rain            190            5            90            45              7            5:40 Snow            200                        99                            8            6:00 Good            180                        45                            7            4:25 Wheelchair Buses 96          16              6          Rain            190            5            so            25              7            4:40 Snow            200                        55                            8            4:55 Maximum ETE:          6:00 Average ETE:        5:10 Surry Power Station                                                        8-30                                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
(Subsequent Wave)
Time Event A  Advisory to Evacuate B  Bus Dispatched from Depot C  Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D  Bus Departs for Evacuation Assembly Center E  Bus Exits Region F  Bus Arrives at Evacuation Assembly Center G  Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Activity AB Driver Mobilization BC Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route CD Passengers Board the Bus DE Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary EF Bus Travels Towards Evacuation Assembly Center Outside the EPZ FG Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Surry Power Station                                      8-31                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev. O
 
9    TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested Traffic Management Plan (TMP) that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:
* Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).
* The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T provides guidance for Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. All state and most city/county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.
* A plan that defines all Traffic and Access Control Point (TCP/ACP) locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.
The functions to be performed in the field are:
: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.
: 2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.
The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.
For example:
* A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.
* An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.
* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.
The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.
The TMP is the outcome of the following process:
: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified in the city/county emergency plans serve as the basis of the TMP, as per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
: 2. Evacuation simulations were run using DYNEV II to predict traffic congestion during evacuation (see Section 7.3 and Figures 7-3 through 7-8).
: 3. The existing TCPs and ACPs defined in the existing TMP, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.
: 4. These simulations help to identify the best routing and critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion during evacuation. No additional TCPs and ACPs Surry Power Station                              9-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
were identified which would benefit the ETE as part of this study. See Appendix G for more detail.
: 5. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.
Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/county emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.
Appendix G documents the existing TMP and a list of TCPs and/or ACPs using the process enumerated above.
9.1    Assumptions
* The ETE calculations documented in Section 7 and 8 assume that the TMP is implemented during evacuation.
* The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours have elapsed from the ATE.
* All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personal manning TCPs and ACPs.
* Study assumptions 1 through 3 in Section 2.5 discuss TCP and ACP operations.
9.2    Additional Considerations The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and EAC information. DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees during egress through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while the on board navigation systems (GPS units), and smartphones can be used to provide information during the evacuation trip.
These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process.
Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.
Surry Power Station                              9-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
10 EVACUATION ROUTES AND EVACUATION ASSEMBLY CENTERS 10.1 Evacuation Routes Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:
* Routing from a PAZ being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.
* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees (schools, day cares centers (operated by schools), day camps, medical facilities, correctional facilities, and residents who do not own or have access to a private vehicle) from the EPZ boundary to the Evacuation Assembly Centers (EACs).
Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.
This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant to the extent practicable. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible. See Appendices B through D for further discussion.
The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are shown in Figure 10-1. These routes will be used by the general population evacuating in private vehicles, and by the transit-dependent population evacuating in buses, wheelchair buses/vans, and ambulances. Transit-dependent evacuees will be routed to EACs. General population may evacuate to either an EAC or some alternate destination (i.e., lodging facility, relative's home, campground) outside the EPZ.
The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to EACs is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.
Table 10-1 summarizes the transit-dependent bus routes servicing the EPZ. These bus routes are mapped by city/county in Figure 10-2 through Figure 10-8.
It is assumed that residents will walk to these routes to flag down a bus, and that they can arrive at the roadway within the 150-minute bus mobilization time (good weather).
Schools, day care centers (operated by schools), day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities were routed along the most likely path from the facility being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the EAC, in order to compute ETE.
The specified bus routes for all the transit-dependent population are documented in Table 10-2 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).
Surry Power Station                                10-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
10.2 Evacuation Assembly Centers Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest EAC for each city/county.
The Radiological Emergency Response Plan (RERP) for the Commonwealth of Virginia indicates evacuees will be received, monitored for contamination, decontaminated, if necessary, and provided with emergency medical and nursing coverage, clothing, and supplies at the EACs.
Table 10-3 presents a list of the EACs for each school, day care center (operated by schools),
and day camp in the EPZ. It is assumed that all school/day care center/camp evacuees will be taken to the appropriate EAC and subsequently be picked up by parents or guardians.
Figure 10-9 presents an overview of the general population EACs (listed in the public information and the city/county/state RERP) servicing the EPZ. Note EACs serve both the transit-dependent population and the general public.
Surry Power Station                          10-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                  Rev.O
 
Table 10-1. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No. of                                              Length Route      Buses                  Route Description            (mi.)
1        2      Isle of Wight County, Route 1                9.3 2        1      Isle of Wight County, Route 2                10.7 3        1      Isle of Wight County, Route 3                19.7 4        1      Isle of Wight County, Route 4                15.3 5        2      Surry County, Route 1                        13.1 6        1      Surry County, Route 2                        24.3 7        1      Surry County, Route 3                        12.0 8        1      Surry County, Route 4                        15.0 9        1      Surry County, Route 5                        19.8 10        1      Surry County, Route 6                        13.3 11        1      Surry County, Route 7                        17.3 12        1      Surry County, Route 8                        9.1 13        2      York County, Route 1                        17.2 14        1      York County, Route 2                        21.4 15        1      York County, Route 3                        12.1 16        1      York County, Route 4                          5.6 17        1      City of Williamsburg, Route 1                4.4 18        1      City of Williamsburg, Route 2                3.6 19        1      City of Williamsburg, Route 3                4.2 20        1      City of Williamsburg, Route 4                5.2 21        1      City of Williamsburg, Route 5                6.2 22        3      James City County, Route 1                  13.3 23        3      James City County, Route 2                  20.4 24        3      James City County, Route 3                  11.4 25        4      James City County, Route 4                  10.8 26        8      James City County, Route 5                  17.6 27        2      City of Newport News, Route D-1              11.2 28        2      City of Newport News, Route D-2              10.5 29        2      City of Newport News, Route E-1              10.0 30        2      City of Newport News, Route E-2              6.8 31        2      City of Newport News, Route E-3              6.2 32        1      City of Newport News, Route E-4              8.1 33        1      City of Newport News, Route E-5              7.0 34        1      City of Newport News, Route E-6              11.7 35        1      City of Newport News, Route F-1              9.2 36        1      City of Newport News, Route F-2              4.9 37        1      City of Newport News, Route F-3              7.6 38        1      City of Newport News, Route F-4              6.5 39        1      City of Newport News, Route F-5              7.9 Surry Power Station                                10-3                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
No. of                                  Length Route      Buses              Route Description    (mi.)
40        1    City of Newport News, Route F-6    3.6 41        1    City of Newport News, Route F-7    8.9 42        1    City of Newport News, Route F-8    5.6 43        1    City of Newport News, Route F-9    3.4 44        1    City of Newport News, Route F-10  5.4 45        1    City of Newport News, Route F-11  5.8 46        1    City of Newport News, Route F-12  4.1 Total:      70 Surry Power Station                            10-4                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                        Rev.O
 
Table 10-2. Bus Route Descriptions Bus Route Number              Description                      Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary 1  Isle of Wight County,  Route 1 1337, 1845, 1846,1844, 1847, 1848,945,1013,946, 1014,947 2  Isle of Wight County,  Route 2 944,945,1013,946,1014,947 3  Isle of Wight County,  Route 3 942,943,944,945,1013,946,1014,947 4  Isle of Wight County,  Route 4 1316, 1024, 1022,1338, 1021, 1023,1352, 1004 931,1309,930,1310, 1311, 1057, 1812,1056, 1313, 1314, 1810, 1809,1918, 5  Surry County, Route 1 1025, 976, 1316 939,938,937,936,935,934,933,932,1308,931,1907,941, 1012,930, 1260, 6  Surry County, Route 2          1908, 1052, 1051, 1261,1271, 1909, 1050,1049, 1262, 1913,1914, 1924, 1259, 1047, 1258, 1048, 1813,1030, 1084, 1923,1083 1271,1272, 1916, 1273, 1274,1915, 1275, 1276, 1277, 1278,1279, 1280,1281, 7  Surry County, Route 3 1282, 1029 941,1012,930,1260, 1908, 1052, 1051,1261, 1271, 1909, 1050, 1049,1262, 8  Surry County, Route 4 1913, 1914, 1924, 1259,1047, 1258, 1048,1813, 1030, 1084,1923, 1083 1263,1912, 1911, 1910, 1262,1913, 1914, 1924, 1259, 1047,1258, 1048,1813, 9  Surry County, Route 5 1030, 1084, 1923, 1083 10  Surry County, Route 6          1047, 1258, 1048,1813, 1030,1087, 1282,1029 11  Surry County, Route 7          1270, 1919, 1920,1047, 1258,1048, 1813,1030, 1084,1923, 1083, 1085 12  Surry County, Route 8          1045, 1044, 1035,1036, 1081,1284 245,246,241,242,354,355,356,357,358,359,350,1216,360,361,362,363, 13  York County, Route 1 364,365,366,367,368,369,370,373,673,674 250,248, 1892,1893, 1894,339,1895, 1896, 1218, 1888,341,1889, 1890, 1891, 308, 1225, 309,342, 1781,353,1780,432, 345,344,346,1219, 1221,347,1214, 14  York County, Route 2 348,349,1215,350, 1216,360,361,362,363, 364,365,366,367,368,369,370, 373,673,674 309,310, 1234,410,430,433, 1876,438,436,434,377,1236, 1905,378,1557, 15  York County, Route 3 379, 1558, 1237,376,675,385 16  York County, Route 4          1239,379,1558, 1237,376,675,385 215,221,1121,176,1117, 1111,1107,1108,1109,1110,1135,1136,1137,185, 17  City of Williamsburg, Route 1 184, 183,1141, 123, 1157,33,1792,34,35 18  City of Williamsburg, Route 2  226,228,189,218,1533, 188,187, 176,1122, 193,1125, 1126,180, 198,255 335,336,337,219,216,214,215,221,1121,176,1122, 193, 1125,1126,180, 19  City of Williamsburg, Route 3 198,255,256,112,118 223,226,228,189,218,1533,188,187,176,1122, 193,1125, 1126, 180, 198, 20  City of Williamsburg, Route 4 255,256,112, 118 258,257, 1797,208,1092, 1796,191, 194,1124, 193,1125, 1126,180, 198,255, 21  City of Williamsburg, Route 5 256,112,118 319,318,320,321,322,323,1777, 1778, 1779,306,1775,312,311,1223,225, 22  James City County, Route 1    1094, 1096, 1095,253,224,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796, 191,194, 1124, 193,1125, 1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 Surry Power Station                        10-5                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                  Rev.0
 
Bus Route Number            Description                          Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary 313, 1774, 1227,315,326,327, 1772,429,1751,411,1235,416,419,426,421, 425,423,1898,464, 1900,461,458,460,457,455,445,441,447,442,444,439, 23  James City County, Route 2 1556, 1769,377,434,436,18, 17, 16, 1725,414,15, 14,431, 13, 12,11, 1726, 1727, 10,9, 78,8, 7 305,324,1778, 1779,306,1775,312,311,1223,225, 1094, 1096,1095,253, 24  James City County, Route 3        224,258,257,1797,208,1092,1796, 191,194, 1124,193,1125, 1126,180,198, 255,256,112,118 1536, 1534,303,304,305,324, 1778, 1779,306,1775,312,311,1223,225, 25  James City County, Route 4        1094, 1096, 1095,253,224,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796, 191,194, 1124, 193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 279, 1886, 1179,263,260,264, 1100,214,215,221,1121,176,1122, 193,1125, 26  James City County, Route 5 1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 457,455,445,441, 1856,448,454,451,510,1449,511,509,1453,505,507, 27  City of Newport News, Route D-1 508,502,1452,506,22,23,24, 1437 378,1905, 1236,377,1770,1447,512, 1765,1767, 1438, 1439,1440, 1441,22, 28  City of Newport News, Route D-2 23,24, 1437 1454,499,1457,497,495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520,1518,571,564, 29  City of Newport News, Route E-1 560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 492,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569, 1512,590,1483, 30  City of Newport News, Route E-2 600,591,1747,594,595 492,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569, 1512,590,599, 31  City of Newport News, Route E-3 608, 1481,592 521,1469, 1470,527,528,554,553,551,1739, 1524, 713,1737, 1474,1736, 32  City of Newport News, Route E-4 592 33  City of Newport News, Route E-5    527,528,554,553,551,1739,1524, 713,1737,1474,1736,592 520,521,1469,1470,527,528,554,553,551,1739, 1524, 713, 1737,1474, 34  City of Newport News, Route E-6 1736,592 566,565,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,1747,594, 35  City of Newport News, Route F-1 595 36  City of Newport News, Route F-2    1519,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 576,575,1458,574,573,572, 1461,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569, 1512, 37  City of Newport News, Route F-3 590,599,608,1481,592 576,578,579,1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481, 38  City of Newport News, Route F-4 592 39  City of Newport  News,  Route F-5  1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 40  City of Newport  News,  Route F-6  590,1483,600,591,1747,594,595 41  City of Newport  News,  Route F-7  568,1465,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592 42  City of Newport  News,  Route F-8  589,586, 1746,591,1747,594,595 43  City of Newport  News,  Route F-9  593,1484,595 44  City of Newport  News,  Route F-10 584,583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592 45  City of Newport  News,  Route F-11 581,583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592 46  City of Newport  News,  Route F-12 587,596,597,598,593,1484,595 Surry Power Station                            10-6                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Bus Route Number              Description                          Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary General Stanford Elementary        475,479,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515, 47 School                            569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 Sanford Elementary School, 48  Sanford School Age Program,        583,589,586,1746,591,1747,594,595 Warwick River Christian School 49  First Baptist Church Denbigh      599,600,591, 1747,594,595 so  BC Charles Elementary School      596,597,598,593,1484,595 51  Menchville High School            598,593,1484,595 Jenkins Elementary School, Jenkins 52                                      1482,594,595 School Age Program 1856,448,454,451,510,1449,511,509, 1453,SOS,501,1454,499,1457,497, Katherine Johnson Elementary 53                                      495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515, School 569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 Knollwood Meadows Elementary 578,579,1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747, 54  School, Nelson School Age 594,595 Program 496,495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 55  Ella Fitzgerald Middle School 1515,569, 1512,590, 1483,600,591,1747,594,595 494,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600, 56  David A Dutrow Elementary School 591, 1747,594,595 Mary Passage Middle School, Mary  491,490,493,1520, 1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,1483, 57 Passage School Age Program        600,591,1747,594,595 Stoney Run Elementary School,      1461,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,1747,594, 58 Epes School Age Program            595 59  Denbigh High School                580,563,555, 1515,569,1512,590, 1483,600,591,1747,594,595 Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School, Woodside High School, 60                                      526,539,513,535 New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy George J McIntosh Elementary, 61                                      528,554,553,551,1739, 1524, 713,1737, 1474, 1736,592,602 Mcintosh School Age Program Richneck Elementary School, 62                                      527,528,554,553,551, 1739, 1524, 713,1737,1474, 1736,592,602 Richneck School Age Program 463,423,425,421,426,419,416,1235,411,427,413,1231,417,418,14,431, 63  James River Elementary School 13, 12, 11, 1726, 1727, 10, 9, 78, 8, 7 64  Magruder Elementary School        250,1528,1784, 1785, 1786,213,212,210,211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 65  Waller Mill Elementary School      196, 195,194,191,1092,208,1798, 1091,1211,209, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 66  Bruton High School                79, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 67  Queens Lake Middle School          246,241,243,239,244,210,211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 Surry Power Station                            10-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.0
 
Bus Route Number            Description                          Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary Walsingham Academy (Upper 261,260,264,1100,214,215,1102,218,189, 1531,190,202,203,1799,208, 68  School), Walsingham Academy 1798, 1091, 1211,209, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 (Lower School)
Matthew Whaley Elementary 69  School, College of William and  189, 1531, 190,202,203, 1799,208,1798, 1091,1211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 Mary 1794,172,171,170,169,168, 1164,167,166,1163,31, 1795,32,33,1792,34, 70  Berkeley Middle School 35 71  James Blair Middle School        182,200, 1899, 183,1141, 123,1157,33,1792,34,35 1536, 1534,263,1823, 1824,262,1790, 1791,1825, 1165,30,31,1795,32,33, 72  Laurel Lane Elementary School 1792,34,35 Clara Byrd Baker Elementary      1089, 159,283,282,281,1176,262,1790, 1791,1825, 1165,30,31,1795,32, 73 School                          33, 1792,34,35 74  DJ Montague Elementary School    149,148,130 1171,273,1173,1172,276,275,274,1160,152,161,162,165,166,1163,31, 75  Jamestown High School 1795,32,33,1792,34,35 1172,276,275,274, 1160,152, 161,162,165,167,166, 1163,31,1795,32,33, 76  Providence Classical School 1792,34,35 77  Matoaka Elementary School        1169, 1167,1901,146,1826,1155, 147,149,148,130 Denbigh Early Childhood Center, 78                                    563,555,1515,569, 1512,590,1483,600,591,1747,594,595 Denbigh Head Start Center 79  HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center    555,1515,569, 1512,590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 80  B.C. Charles School Age Program  1486,594, 595 Denbigh Early Childhood Kids    495,482,478,485,487,490,493,1520, 1518, 571,564,560,559,555, 1515, 81 Program                          569, 1512, 590,1483,600,591, 1747,594,595 82  Greenwood School Age Program    539,513,535 340,1218, 1896, 1895,339, 1894, 1893, 1892,248,250, 1528, 1784, 1785,236, 83  York County Head Start 1786,213,212,210,211,209, 76, 1212, 77, 78,8, 7 84  4-H Camp                        1183,266,267,268,270,145,1167, 1901, 146,1826,1155, 147,149,148,130 476,480,503,504,501,1454,499,1457,497,495,482,478,485,487,490,493, 85  McDonald Army Health Center      1520,1518,571,564,560,559,555, 1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,1747, 594,595 Mennowood Retirement 86                                    594,595,908 Community Charter Senior Living of Newport 87                                    552,551, 1739,1524, 713,1737, 1474,1736,592,602 News 312,1560, 1224,331,342,1781,353, 1780,432,345,344,13, 12, 11,1726, 88  Morningside of Williamsburg 1727,10,9, 78,8, 7 419,416,1235,411,427,413,1231,417,418, 14, 431, 13, 12, 11, 1726, 1727, 89  Colonial Manor Senior Community 10, 9, 78, 8, 7 90  Commonwealth Senior Living      192,191,1092,208,1798,1091, 1211,209, 76,1212, 77, 78,8, 7 91  Verena At The Reserve            195,194,1124,193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 Surry Power Station                            10-8                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Bus Route Number            Description                          Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Boundary 325,324,1778, 1779,306,1224,331,1782,309,1783, 1225,308,307,250, Riverside Doctors' Hospital 92                                      1528, 1784, 1785,236,1787,237,224,258,257, 1797,208,1092,1796, 191, Williamsburg 194,1124,193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 93  Envoy of Williamsburg              1111,1117,176,1122,193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118 244,1555,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796,191,194,1124, 193,1125, 1126, 94  Spring Arbor of Williamsburg 180,198,255,256,112,118 Greenfield Senior Living of 95                                      256,112,118 Williamsburg 1536, 1534,263,260,264,1100,214,215,221, 1121,176,1122, 193,1125, 96  Williamsburg Landing 1126, 180,198,255,256,112,118 97  Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg    1108,1109, 1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 163, 162,165,167,1164, 168,169,170,171,172, 1120,1106, 1107,1108, 1109, 98  WindsorMeade Williamsburg 1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 99  Edgeworth Park at New Town          1128,177,1877,178,1793,1135,1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 100  Eastern State Hospital              201,179,1135,1110,1116,181,180,198,255,256,112,118 101  Pavilion At Williamsburg Place      111,112,118 English Meadows Williamsburg        301,300,1552, 1184,1183,266,267,268,270,145,1167,1901, 146, 1826, 102 Campus, Consulate Health Care      1155, 147,149,148,130 The Convalescent at Patriots 103                                      270, 145,1167, 1901,146,1826, 1155,147,149, 148,130 Colony-Williamsburg Merrimac Juvenile Detention        433,430,410,1234,310,309, 1783,1225,308,307,250,1528,1784, 1785,236, 104  Center, Virginia Peninsula Regional 1787,237,224,258,257,1797,208,1092, 1796,191,194,1124, 193, 1125, Jail                                1126, 180,198,255,256,112,118 Surry Power Station                            10-9                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table 10-3. School and Day care Evacuation Assembly Centers School                                              Evacuation Assembly Center General Stanford Elementary School Sanford Elementary School Warwick River Christian School First Baptist Church Denbigh BC Charles Elementary School Gildersleeve Middle School Menchville High School Jenkins Elementary School Sanford School Age Program B.C. Charles School Age Program Jenkins School Age Program Denbigh Early Childhood Center Denbigh Head Start Center HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center Stoney Run Elementary School Denbigh High School New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy George J McIntosh Elementary Hines Middle School Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School Woodside High School Richneck Elementary School Epes School Age Program Mcintosh School Age Program Greenwood School Age Program Richneck School Age Program Walsingham Academy (Lower School)
Walsingham Academy (Upper School)
College of William and Mary Matthew Whaley Elementary School Berkeley Middle School James Blair Middle School                                                            New Kent High School Magruder Elementary School York County Head Start Waller Mill Elementary School Bruton High School Queens Lake Middle School Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School DJ Montague Elementary School Jamestown High School                                                                  Warhill High School Providence Classical School Matoaka Elementary School Surry Power Station                                10-10                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.O
 
School        Evacuation Assembly Center 4-H Camp James River Elementary School                  Warhill High School Laurel Lane Elementary School Katherine Johnson Elementary School Knollwood Meadows Elementary School Ella Fitzgerald Middle School David A Dutrow Elementary School Warwick High School Mary Passage Middle School Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program Nelson School Age Program Mary Passage School Age Program Surry Power Station        10-11                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                    Rev.O
 
                                          /
                                      /
                                  /
                                    /                                                                                                    \
G~:u~ ester Coun.ty
                                                                                                                                                      \
                                                                                                                                                        \
                                                                                                                                                          \
aanlmont I                  /
Scotla;Jf                  /
2                t..~Y                      I
                                                  )-Lebao0,,        y,,.-;,,<f Ji'.1,              \
                                              ~b ,;.
lQ ,.,f
::o
                                                                        ~ 4
                                                                            ;      \
                                                                                                        \
Surry  c                ~      S
                                                                -Y1~  ~
                                                                                          \
                                                                                            '\
                                                                                          ~,_, "
                  \
                    \
            \
                                                                                                                                /
Legend
                                                                                                                              /  dames RWer.
SPS Evacuation Route
                                                                                                                                                  /
G1    PAZ                                                                                                                      /
Shadow Region                                                                                                        /
                '- _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                                                              2.5 Figure 10-1. Major Evacuation Routes within the SPS EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                        10-12                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Key Map.
Transit-Dependent Bus Routes ..* - - - ~ ~
for the County of Isle of Wight Surry                                    re County
                                                                            ~-]t*-..,._
                                                        ~~-                            \              James River
                                                      / ~                                t~
                                                    ~
                                                                            <' J~          ~                                      /
                                                                                                                                      /
                                                                                                                                /
4.r Transit-Dependent
                                                                                                                    -  Bus Route 1
                                                                                                                  / - - Bus Route 2
                                                                                                                    -  Bus Route 3
                                                                                                                    -  Bus Route 4 Figure 10-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for Isle of Wight County Surry Power Station                                                        10-13                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the County of Surry
                                                                                                                                    /
                                                                                                                                /
                                                                                                              -    Bus Route 5 Bus Route 6
                                                                                                              -    Bus Route 7
                                                                                                              - Bus Route 8 Legend Gl SPS PAZ Shadow Region
                                                                                                      , --: 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Figure 10-3. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for Surry County Surry Power Station                                                  10-14                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev. O
 
Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the County of York
                                                                              - ;',~ ~~ ~*~~                ~
                                                                                                  ~ .
                                                                                                            '3/4~~
                                                                                                " '\      ~
                                                                                                              ~
York                        '\        >>;.
County PAZ: 19B              '\
                                                                                                                    ~r *1 JamesRWer
{'1} \,.      -    Bus Route 1 Bus Route 2 Bus Route 3
                                                                                                                                  -    Bu s Route 4 I
                      /
V Gl SPS PAZ I                                                                                                              Shadow Region 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Figure 10-4. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for York County Surry Power Station                                                        10-15                                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
            ~ Transit-Dependent Bus Routes                                                                                          Key Map, '
for the City of Williamsburg
                                                                                                                          -    Bus Route 1 Bus Route 3
                                                                                                                          -    Bu s Route 4
                                                                                                                          -    Bu s Route 5
                                                                                                                        /
gend GJ SPS PAZ Shadow Region 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Miles I, PAZ: 22B Figure 10-5. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Williamsburg Surry Power Station                                                        10-16                                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
{
Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the County of James City
                                                                                                                              ---                                        '&deg; Z: 21
                                                                        "",,r    132 I!.-);
                                                                          --          *~                                                PAZ: 198
                                                                                ..          1..->  f''    ..
                                                                                    *  -- _ I
                                                                        -    - 5"f::l:          ...,-PAiZ, 188
                                                                    --f>AZ: 228                        '--r-.... [i<
l                                                                                          -                ,.,
u----1-- --------
                                                                                                                                                          - Bus Route 1 Bus Route 2
                                                                                                                                                    -    Bus Route 3
                                                                                                                                                    -    Bus Route 4 Bus Route 5 Newpo*m.----~---'
Legend PAZ: 9
( Rush mere
(
Gl SPS PAZ ls 1e oY.                            Shadow Region Wig3/4 t                        ,  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Mil es Co u n'rty      /
Figure 10-6. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for James City County Surry Power Station                                                            10-17                                                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
238 Transit-Dependent Bus Routes                  ~                                                                                Key Map_
(1 of 2) f r h  i  fN w      N w            ,/ 1                                                                                            l Si.
                                                          ~
                                                      ~              t>' . . . '
1                '      ,., ...
                                                      *"'\
                                                            )                            't                    _..,,
y                                .          ~
                                                            ,          _.....~y~-.-'
                                                                "(                        "'~'' -'  \  ...
                                                                                ~;)            \
PAZ: 16 ~
                                                                                  ...,_.,.Y
                                                                                                                                      -      Bus Route D-1 y                          \    ,
                                                                                    -rJ                          ,,                  -    - Bus Route D-2
                                                                                *          ,(                                      -      Bus Route E-1 o'  -      Bus Route E-2
                                                                                                ,,~.L',,,... .                              - Bus Route E-3
                                                                                                                                      -    - Bus Route E-4
                                                                                    .,_t.a.,-....'C,1',                              --    Bus Route E-5 "tntDr
                                                                                      \.._}.                                                Bus Route E-6
                                                                                                                                      -      Bus Route F-1
              /
                  /
                                                                                                                          '~I I
I SPS PAZ PAZ: 15 /            Shadow Region I          2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Figure 10-7. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (1 of 2)
Surry Power Station                                                                                          10-18                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Transit-Dependent Bus Routes                                                                                          Key Map_
(2 of 2) for the City of Newport News Bus Route F-9 Bus Route F-10
                                                                                                                                  - Bus Route F-11 James River i;il SPS PAZ Shadow Region 0.5                                                                                              2, 5, 10, 15 M ile Rings Figure 10-8. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes for the City of Newport News (2 of 2)
Surry Power Station                                                        10-19                                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                  Rev. O
 
Deltilvi//e Chickahominy River
                                                                                /
                                                                            /
                                                                          /
I-I -
I                    ,._l: ...----                            Chesapeake Bay ctarem~nt                        I 10                          I I
2 1- u Dispuran~
                                                                                    ,ckson I    3
                                                              \              Mid
                                                                \         
                                                                  \
Legend                                                \
SPS Evacuation Assemb ly Center 31      Dend(!'n Gl    PAZ Shadow Region
                                                          /8/2022 ht: ESRI0ataandMaps2020
                '-  _, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings
:~_::~~::~:~ Oomiinion                                                                Miles Figure 10-9. General Population Evacuation Assembly Centers Surry Power Station                                                                              10-20                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. 0
 
APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms
 
A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term                          Definition Analysis Network              A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.
Link                          A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.
Measures of Effectiveness    Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.
Node                          A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.
Origin                        A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.
Prevailing Roadway and        Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,
Traffic Conditions            composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).
Service Rate                  Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vph.
Service Volume                Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).
Service Volume is usually expressed as vph.
Signal Cycle Length          The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.
The cycle length is expressed in seconds.
Signal Interval              A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.
Surry Power Station                            A-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Term                        Definition Signal Phase                A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds.
Traffic (Trip) Assignment  A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.
Traffic Density            The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).
Traffic (Trip) Distribution A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.
Traffic Simulation          A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness (MOE).
Traffic Volume              The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vph. Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.
Travel Mode                Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.
Trip Table or Origin-      A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number Destination Matrix          of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations. These values are expressed in vph or in vehicles.
Turning Capacity            The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.
Surry Power Station                          A-2                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model
 
DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This appendix describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic TRaffic 8_ssignment and Qistribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (O-D) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.
To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for selected origins. DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost."
B.1    Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these "best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.
For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways. The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip "cost", as discussed later.
The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.
The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.
Surry Power Station                            B-1                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
B.2    Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn]
movements. DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.
B.2.1  DTRAD Description DTRAD is the OTA module for the DYNEV II System.
When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations. The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given 0-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time dependencies, OTA procedures are required.
The DTRAD OTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions. The modeling principles of DTRAD include:
* It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several "efficient" routes for each 0-D pair from which the drivers choose.
* The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling". Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.
Surry Power Station                              B-2                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
* DTRAD executes the traffic assignment (TA) algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.
* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as where Ca is the generalized cost for link a and a, {3, and y are cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions. The DYNEV simulation model computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior. This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.
The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session). A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.
* The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution). The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:
Sa= -  p In (p), 0 Sp SI; p >O dn p=-
do dn = Distance of node, n, from the plant do= Distance from the plant where there is zero risk P = Scaling factor The value of do= 13 miles, the outer distance of the EPZ. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.
Surry Power Station                                    B-3                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
B.2.2  Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:
Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.
The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium". It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful] condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,
commuters). Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.
Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.
Surry Power Station                            B-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
0 Start of next DTRAD Session
                                      ~
I Set  T0 = Clock time.
Archive System State at T0 I
Define latest Link Turn Percentages I
Execute Simulation Model from
                                      ~
B            ~
time, T0 to T1 (burn time)
I Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T1 I
Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I
Retrieve System State at T0 ;
Apply new Link Turn Percents I
DTRAD iteration converges?
No                          Yes I  Next iteration I        Simulate from T0 to T2 (DTA session duration)
Set Clock to T2
                                                                        ~
r B
Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Surry Power Station                                      B-5                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                Rev.0
 
APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model
 
C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL This appendix describes the DYNEV traffic simulation model. The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions. The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) such as those listed in Table C-1.
Model Features Include:
* Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.
* Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the Qynamic TRaffic
        ,8ssignment and Qistribution (DTRAD) model.
* At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications: queued and moving vehicles. The number of vehicles in each classification is computed. Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified. The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation. There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.
* Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented. This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.
* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement. If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.
* A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.
* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.
* Provides MOE to animation software, Evacuation Animator (EVAN).
* Calculates Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) statistics.
All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.
Surry Power Station                              C-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections: rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways. The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).
Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation. The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.
C.1    Methodology C.1.1    The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships. Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf ~ k ~ kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity. In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k ~ ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion. The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and ki completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.
The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, Vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =
45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9; (5) Jam density, ki. Then, Ve = Q;cax , kf = kc -
(Vf-Vc) k~. Setting k = k - k    then Q = RQ      - RQmax k2 for 0 < k < k = 50. It can be Qmax                        c'              max    8333            -    -  s shown that Q = (0.98 - 0.0056 k) RQmax for ks~ k ~ kj, where ks= 50 and J<i = 175.
C.1.2    The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems". Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (Tl) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.
The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each Tl over the duration of the evacuation.
Surry Power Station                              C-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Given  =  Qb , Mb , L, TI , E0 , LN , G/ C , h , Ly , R0 , Le , E , M Compute = 0 , Qe , Me Define O = OQ + OM + OE ; E = E1 + E2
: 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this Tl, get initial estimates of mean density, k 0 , the R - factor, R 0 and entering traffic, E0 , using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior Tl.
For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Li Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this Tl; Sis the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current Tl.
Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = k 0 , and E = E0 .
: 2. Calculate v (k) such that k ::; 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.
Calculate Cap    = Q~~~~I)    (G/c) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering Set R = 1.0 if G/ C < 1 or if k ::; kc ; Set R = 0. 9 only if G/ C = 1 and k > kc Lv Calculate queue length,          Lb = Qb LN
: 3. Ca 1cu1ate t 1 = TI -    v.
L      If t 1 -< O, set t 1 = E1 = OE = O ; Else, E1 -- E    Tt11 *
: 5. If Qb ~ Cap , then OQ = Cap , OM = OE = 0 If t 1 > 0 , then Q~ = Qb + Mb + E1 - Cap Else End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)
: 6. Else (Qb -< Cap)
OQ = Qb ,      RCap = Cap - OQ
: 7.      If Mb ::; RCap, then 8.
Q~  = E1 -    OE If Q~  > 0 , then Calculate Qe , Me with Algorithm A Surry Power Station                                    C-3                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
Else Qe = 0' Me= E2 End if Else (t1 = O)
OM =  (v(Tl)-Lb)
L-Lb Mb      and OE = 0 Me = Mb - OM    + E;  Qe = 0 End if
: 9.      Else (Mb > RCap)
OE= 0 If t 1 > 0, then OM = RCap, Q~ = Mb - OM + E1 Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A
: 10.              Else (t1  = 0)
Md = [  e(~~;bLb) Mb ]
If Md    > RCap,  then OM= RCap Q~ =Md-OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM= Md Me = Mb - OM    +E  and Qe = 0 End if End if End if End if
: 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn        = 2:.4 [kb + 2 km + ke] ,
where kb = density at the beginning of the Tl ke = density at the end of the Tl km = density at the mid-point of the Tl All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.
If  lkn - kn-i I > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and e is a convergence criterion, then
: 12.      set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn .
End if Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing spill back.
: 13. If Qe  + Me > (L-W) LN    ,  then Lv Surry Power Station                                C-4                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
The number of excess vehicles that cause spill back is: SB          = Qe + Me -    (L-W)
* LN ,
Lv where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this Tl by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1- (E + S) ~ 0, where Mis the metering factor (over all movements).
This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.
Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a Tl during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Q'e          shown, Qb ~ Cap, with t 1 > 0 and a queue of Qe    length, Q~ , formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the Tl, but could V                              not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is, Qb + Mb + E1 > Cap. This queue length, Q~ =
Qb + Mb + E1 - Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current Tl, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the queue within the Tl. A portion of the entering
                            .I                  vehicles, E3 = E ~ , will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 , Qe and Me for the input values of L, Tl, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Q~ .
When t 1 > 0 and Qb        ~  Cap:
L                                                                          L Define: L'e = Q~ L~ . From the sketch,              L 3 = v(TI - t 1 - t 3) = L - (Q~  + E3) L~      .
Substituting E3 = ~~ E yields: - vt 3 + ~~ E ~~ = L - v(TI - t 1) - L'e . Recognizing that the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain:
such that O ~ t 3 ~ TI - t 1 If the denominator, [v - :1    ~~] ~ 0, set t 3 = TI -  t1 .
t3                  (      t1 + t3)
Then, Qe = Q~    + E TI    ,    Me = E 1 -          TI The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.
Surry Power Station                                  C-5                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.O
 
C.1.3    Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If, however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.
C.2    Implementation C.2.1  Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over Tl that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.
The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, Tl, until the simulation is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and Sare all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.
Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.
With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.
The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles: Qe and Me . The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping). After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E; metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.
The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.
Surry Power Station                            C-6                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior Tl). At the completion of the final sweep for a Tl, the procedure computes and stores all MOEs for each link and turn movement for output purposes. It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next Tl as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior Tl. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run.
Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.
C.2.2    Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)
The DYNEV II system reflects Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.
Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions"; each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,
[T0 , T2 ] , specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.
As indicated in Figure B-1, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T1 ::5 T2 , which lies within the session duration, [T0 , T2 ] . This "burn time", T1 - T0 , is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) model, returns to the origin time, T0 , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T2
* At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.
Additional details are presented in Appendix B.
Surry Power Station                              C-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Measure                                  Units                                  Applies To Vehicles Discharged          Vehicles                                        Link, Network, Exit Link Speed                        Miles/Hours (mph)                                Link, Network Density                      Vehicles/Mile/Lane                              Link Level of Service            LOS                                              Link Content                      Vehicles                                        Network Travel Time                  Vehicle-hours                                    Network Evacuated Vehicles          Vehicles                                        Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time            Vehicle-minutes/trip                            Network Capacity Utilization        Percent                                          Exit Link Attraction                  Percent of total evacuating vehicles            Exit Link Max Queue                    Vehicles                                        Node, Approach Time of Max Queue            Hours:minutes                                    Node, Approach Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Statistics                                                              Route Time (min)
Mean Travel Time            Minutes                                          Evacuation Trips; Network Surry Power Station                                C-8                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev.O
 
Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK
* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers
* Link lengths
* Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization
* Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)
* Destination (exit) nodes
* Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link
* Node Coordinates (X,Y)
* Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)
GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES
* On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS
* Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific
* Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated
* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)
* Stop and Yield signs
* Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)
* Route diversion specifications
* Turn restrictions
* Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)
DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
* Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, discharge headway
* Bus route designation.
DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
* Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)
* Duration of DTA sessions
* Duration of simulation "burn time"
* Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS
* Identify and Schedule of closed lanes
* Identify and Schedule of closed links Surry Power Station                                  C-9                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.
The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the E
time interval. The portion, Er1, can reach the stop-bar within the Tl.
The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn G/C movement on a link.
h        The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.
k        Density in vehicles per lane per mile.
The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a Tl, on a k
link.
L        The length of the link in feet.
The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.
The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a LN particular movement on a link.
The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.
M          Metering factor {Multiplier): 1.
The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval. These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.
The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a 0
link over a time interval.
The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval: vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the Tl; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the Tl; vehicles that Entered the link during the Tl.
The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.
The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the
[beginning, end] of the time interval.
The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Surry Power Station                                C-10                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the Highway Capacity Manual {HCM) 2016.
R        The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.
RCap        The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.
Sx        Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).
t1        Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.
Tl        The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.
v        The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.
vQ        The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the Tl. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.
W        The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.
Surry Power Station                                C-11                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx 8
Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Surry Power Station                            C-12                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                              Rev.O
 
Volume, vph
                            +  Capacity Drop Qmax -
RQmax-
                ----r---..,,,,.--=-.....,.----;--------...,_----
Flow egimes Density, vpm Speed,mph ill! Free      Forced, Vf - ; - - ~ ~ I R Ve - -----:----------.,- - -
                          ,              I I              I I              I I              I I              I I              I I              I I              I L--....;...'----..-'----!--------.;::::,,,;..-------+Density,                        vpm Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Distance l                                          Qoown L
Up
                                                                              - - - -... Time Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t1 >0 Surry Power Station                                        C-13                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                    Rev.O
 
Sequence Network Links Next Time-step, of duration, Tl Next sweep; Define E, M, S for all B
Links Next Link Next Turn Movement, x Get lanes, LNx Service Rate, Sx; (G/Cx)
Get inputs to Unit Problem:
Qb ,Mb IE Solve Unit Problem: Qe, Me, 0 No      D Last Movement?
Yes No Last Link?
Yes No      B Last Sweep?
Yes Cale., store all Link MOE Set up next Tl :
No Last Time - step ?
Yes DONE Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3)
Surry Power Station                                  C-14                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                Rev.O
 
APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure
 
D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute ETE. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.
Step 1 The first activity was to obtain the EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary and PAZ boundaries.
Step 2 The 2020 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the permanent resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Dominion Energy, the state and cities/counties within the EPZ, supplemented with internet search where data was missing.
Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and city/county emergency management officials and Dominion Energy). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to the state and city/county emergency management officials. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.
Step 4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals (if any exist within the study area), and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity. Roadway characteristics were also verified using aerial imagery.
Step 5 A demographic survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population for this study. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Surry Power Station                            D-1                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the most recent UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey {Step 4) and information obtained from aerial imagery. Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. The 2020 permanent resident population estimates {Step 2) were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.
Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 30 PAZs. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of PAZs) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II system, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.
Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.
Surry Power Station                            D-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software - See Section 1.3) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.
Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:
* The results are satisfactory; or
* The input stream must be modified accordingly.
This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.
Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or adding minor routes (which are paved and traversable) that were not previously modelled but may assist in the evacuation and increase the available roadway network capacity, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems.
Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.
Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.
Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses, school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-Surry Power Station                            D-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.
Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.
Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly. Traffic management plans are analyzed, and traffic control points are prioritized, if applicable.
Additional analysis is conducted to identify the sensitivity of the ETE to change in some base evacuation conditions and model assumptions.
Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute ETE for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, medical facilities, and other special facilities.
Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated, and graphed. The results are then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) is completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.
Surry Power Station                              D-4                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Step 10 Examine Prototype Evacuation Case using EVAN Step 1 and Create GIS Base Map                                    DYNEV II Output Step2                                            Results Satisfactory Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Step 11 Study Area.
Modify Evacuation Destinations and/or Develop Step3                    Traffic Control Treatments Conduct Kickoff Meeting with Stakeholders                                              Step 12 Modify Database to Reflect Changes to Prototype Evacuation case Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area Steps Conduct and Analyze Demographic Survey and Step 13 Develop Trip Generation Characteristics Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Step6            Routes and Update DYNEV-11 Database Update and calibrate Link-Node Analysis                                                Step 14 Ne ork Step7            Generate DYNEV-11 Input Streams for All Evacuation cases Develop Evacuation Regions and Scenarios Step 15 Steps          Use DYNEV-11 to Simulate All Evacuation Cases and Compute ETE Create and Debug DYNEV-11 Input Stream Step 16 Use DYNEV-11 Results to Estimate Transit and Step9          Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation case Step 17 Documentation Step 18 Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Surry Power Station                                        D-5                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev.O
 
APPENDIX E Special Facility Data
 
E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of July 2022, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the SPS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, (evacuating) day care centers, day camps, medical facilities, military installations, and correctional facilities. Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas (campgrounds, golf courses, historical sites, marinas, parks, other recreational facilities) and lodging facilities. Employment data is included in the table for major employers (including military installations) . Each table is grouped by city/county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, day care center, day camp, major employer, recreational area (campground, golf course, historical site, marina, park, other recreational facility), lodging facility, military installation, and correctional facility are also provided.
Surry Power Station                            E-1                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ Distance  Dire-                                                                                                    Enroll-PAZ    (miles)  ction                          School Name                            Street Address      City/County    ment 14        7.0      E  General Stanford Elementary School                          929 Madison Ave        Newport News      482 15        9.3    ESE  Sanford Elementary School                                  480 Colony Rd          Newport News      509 15        9.4    ESE  Warwick River Christian School                              252 Lucas Creek Rd    Newport News      152 15      10.2    ESE  First Baptist Church Denbigh                                3628 Campbell Rd      Newport News      48 15      10.3    ESE  BC Charles Elementary School                                701 Menchville Rd      Newport News      379 15      10.4    ESE  Menchville High School                                      275 Menchville Rd      Newport News      1,699 15      10.5    ESE  Jenkins Elementary School                                  80 Menchville Rd      Newport News      478 16        7.2    ENE  Katherine Johnson Elementary School                        17346 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      518 16        7.9    ESE  Knollwood Meadows Elementary School                        826 Moyer Rd          Newport News      445 16        8.0      E  Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                              432 Industrial Park Dr Newport News      1,096 16        8.1      E  David A Dutrow Elementary School                            60 Curtis Tignor Rd    Newport News      454 16        8.4      E  Mary Passage Middle School                                  400 Atkinson Way      Newport News      990 16        8.5    ESE  Stoney Run Elementary School                                855 Lucas Creek Rd    Newport News      482 16        8.7    ESE  Denbigh High School                                        259 Denbigh Blvd      Newport News      1,159 16        9.4      E  New Horizons Regional Education Center: Newport Academy    13400 Woodside Ln      Newport News        29 16        9.4      E  George J McIntosh Elementary                                185 Richneck Rd        Newport News      442 16        9.4      E  Oliver C Greenwood Elementary School                        13460 Woodside Ln      Newport News      570 16        9.6      E  Woodside High School                                        13450 Woodside Ln      Newport News      1,684 16        9.6      E  Richneck Elementary School                                  205 Tyner Dr          Newport News      597 18D        5.3    NE  James River Elementary School                              8901 Pocahontas Tri    James City        393 19A        7.1      N  Magruder Elementary School                                  700 Penniman Rd        York              598 20A        8.7      N  Waller Mill Elementary School                              314 Waller Mill Rd    York              344 20A      10.0      N  Bruton High School                                          185 E Rochambeau Dr    York              603 20B        8.2      N  Queens Lake Middle School                                  124 W Queens Dr        York              527 21        6.5    NNW  Walsingham Academy (Lower School)                          1100 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      318 21        6.5    NNW  Walsingham Academy (Upper School)                          1100 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      243 21        7.2      N  College of William and Mary                                116 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      8,200 21        7.5      N  Matthew Whaley Elementary School                            301 Scotland St        Williamsburg      471 21        7.7    NNW  Berkeley Middle School                                      1118 lronbound Rd      Williamsburg      829 21        8.8    NNW  James Blair Middle School                                  101 Longhill Rd        Williamsburg      550 22B        6.0    NNW  Laurel Lane Elementary School                                112 Laurel Ln        James City        391 23        6.8    NW  Clara Byrd Baker Elementary School                          3131 lronbound Rd      James City        419 Surry Power Station                                                    E-2                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Distance  Dire-                                                                              Enroll-PAZ    (miles)  ction                        School Name        Street Address    City/County    ment 23      11.2    NNW  DJ Montague Elementary School          5380 Centerville Rd James City        441 24        7.8    NW  Jamestown High School                  3751 John Tyler Hwy James City        1,202 24        7.8    NW  Providence Classical School            6000 Easter Cir    James City        195 24      10.0    NW  Matoaka Elementary School              4001 Brick Bat Rd  James City        627 EPZTOTAL:    28,564 Surry Power Station                                                E-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                            Rev. 0
 
Table E-2. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ Distance    Dire-                                                                                                    Enroll-PAZ    (miles)    ction                      Facility Name                            Street Address    City/County      ment 15      9.1      ESE  The Garden of Children Ltd                              4 Hoopes Rd              Newport  News      175 15      9.1      ESE  Light Of Hope Community Church                          403 Oriana Rd            Newport  News      210 15      9.3      ESE  Sanford School Age Program                              480 Colony Rd            Newport  News        70 15      9.3      ESE  Denbigh Early Childhood Center                          14302 Old Courthouse Way Newport  News        70 15      9.3      ESE  Denbigh Head Start Center                              14302 Old Courthouse Way Newport  News        18 15      9.4      ESE  HRCAP Ayers Head Start Center                          14357 Deloice Cres      Newport  News        72 15      9.4      ESE  Warwick River Mennonite Church                          250-A Lucas Creek Rd    Newport  News      255 15      9.5      ESE  New Beech Grove Baptist Church                          326 Tabbs Ln            Newport  News        52 15      9.5      ESE  Christ Community Outreach Center                        13809 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        99 15      9.8      ESE  Colonial Baptist Church                                13771 Warwick Blvd, #25  Newport  News        40 15      9.9        E  Village Restoration                                    550 Denbigh Blvd        Newport  News        18 15      10.0        E  God's Way Christian Academy                            12759 Jefferson Ave      Newport  News        so 15      10.2      ESE  First Baptist Church Denbigh Child Development Center  3628 Campbell Rd        Newport  News      260 15      10.3      ESE  B.C. Charles School Age Program                        101 Youngs Rd            Newport  News        90 15      10.4      ESE  Beginnings Academy of Learning, LLC                    400 Sharon Drive        Newport  News        99 15      10.4      ESE  Peninsula Pentecostals                                  404 Sharon Drive        Newport  News        80 15      10.4      ESE  Second Presbyterian Church                              201 Menchville Rd        Newport  News        60 15      10.5      ESE  Jenkins School Age Program                              80 Menchville Rd        Newport  News        70 15      10.8      ESE  Reformation Lutheran Church                            13100 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        80 16      7.8        E  Living Waters Christian Fellowship Church              15557 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        44 16      7.8        E  Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program                    15638 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        90 16      7.9      ESE  Nelson School Age Program                              826 Moyer Rd            Newport  News        70 16      7.9        E  A Heavenly Haven Child Development Center              15435 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        99 16      8.2        E  Kiddy City Daycare                                      15322 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        82 16      8.2        E  Girls Inc. @ Cypress Terrace                            25 Teardrop Lane        Newport  News        31 16      8.4      ESE  Toddler Station# Iv, Inc.                              902 Lucas Creek Rd      Newport  News      100 16      8.4        E  Mary Passage School Age Program                        400 Atkinson Way        Newport  News        70 16      8.5      ESE  Epes School Age Program                                855 Lucas Creek Rd      Newport  News        90 16      8.7      ESE  Holy Tabernacle Christian Ch ild Development Center    14749 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        94 16      8.7      ESE  Holy Tabernacle Church Of Deliverance                  14749 Warwick Blvd      Newport  News        23 16      8.8      ESE  Denbigh Presbyterian Church                            302 Denbigh Blvd        Newport  News        80 16      9.2        E  Stepping Stones Child Development Center                12946 Jefferson Ave      Newport  News        70 Surry Power Station                                                      E-4                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                Rev. 0
 
Distance    Dire-                                                                                          Enroll-PAZ    (miles)    ction                      Facility Name                Street Address        City/County      ment 16      9.4        E  Mcintosh School Age Program              185 Richneck Rd              Newport  News        70 16      9.4        E  Greenwood School Age Program              13460 Woodside Lane          Newport  News        90 16      9.6        E  Richneck School Age Program              205 Tyner Rd                Newport  News        70 16      9.9        E  Kids Are People Too Childcare Center      557-B Denbigh Blvd          Newport  News        77 16      10.5        E  Denbigh Christian Academy                1233 Shields Rd              Newport News        370 18C      5.6      NE  Gilead Christian Academy                  8660 Pocahontas Tri          James City          15 18C      5.8      NE  Grove ABC Day Care                        8582 Pocahontas Tri          James City          26 19A      6.6      NNE  York County Head Start                    1490 Government Rd          York                117 20A      8.3        N  Lea RN Lily Child Development Center      104 Bypass Rd                York                60 21      7.1        N  Williamsburg Campus Child Care            114 Grigsby Dr              Williamsburg        77 22B      6.1      NNW  La Petite Academy #898                    3190 Lake Powell Rd          James City          73 23      6.9      NNW  King's Way Church/Greenwood Christian    5251-37 John Tyler Hwy      James City          162 23      7.1      NW  Childcare Network                        4300 John Tyler Memorial Hwy James City          172 23      8.0      NNW  New Town United Methodist Church          5209 Monticello Ave          James City          80 23      8.4      NNW  The Goddard School                        4280 Casey Blvd              James City          135 23      9.9      NNW  King of Glory Lutheran Church            4897 Longhill Rd            James City          120 23      10.2      NNW  La Petite Academy #965                    5260 Olde Towne Rd          James City          35 24      6.7      NW  4-H Camp                                  37514-H Club Rd              James City          350 24      8.2      NW  The Kensington School                    3435 John Tyler Hwy          James City          200 EPZTOTAL:    5,110 Surry Power Station                                                  E-5                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. 0
 
Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Ambul-        Wheel-        Bed-Distance      Dire-                                                                                                                Cap-      Current      atory        chair      ridden PAZ    (miles)      ction                    Facility Name                          Street Address                  City/County          acity      Census    Patients    Patients    Patients y                                                                          p 15      9.0        ESE    Community Alternative                          415 St Tropez Dr                      Newport News                                    N/A1 15      10.0        ESE    Campbell House                                  4002 Campbell Rd                      Newport News                                    N/A 15      10.9        ESE    Mennowood Retirement Community                  13030 Warwick Blvd                    Newport News            90          83        45          29            9 16      7.7          E    Sacred hearts Ministry                          15617 Warwick Blvd                    Newport News                                    N/A1 16      8.0          E    Disabled Veterans Meeting Hall                  15460 Warwick Blvd                    Newport News                                    N/A1 16      8.0          E    Serenity House, Trust House                    223 Stony Ridge Ct                    Newport News                                    N/A1 16      8.1        ESE    ARC Peninsula Saddler Home Inc                  208 Saddler Dr                        Newport News                                    N/A1 16      8.4          E    Serenity House                                  509 Ashton Green Blvd                  Newport News                                    N/A1 16      9.8          E    Mile-A-Way Adult Home                          494 Richneck Rd                        Newport News                                    N/A1 16      10.1          E    Charter Senior Living of Newport News          655 Denbigh Blvd                      Newport News          110          101        55          35            11 18B      6.0        NNE    Morningside of Williamsburg                    440 Mclaws Cir                        James City              86          62          2          30            30 18C      5.4          NE    Colonial Manor Senior Community                8679 Pocahontas Tri                    James City              85          64        30          30            4 20A      8.2          N    Commonwealth Senior Living                      236 Commons Way                        York                  195          102        75          25            2 20A      8.9          N    Verena At The Reserve                          121 Reserve Way                        York                  210          152        146            6          0 21      6.1        NNE    Riverside Doctors' Hospital Williamsburg        1500 Commonwealth Ave                  Williamsburg          40            37        20            13          4 21      8.0          N    Envoy of Williamsburg                          1235 S Mount Vernon Ave                Williamsburg          150          150        0          130          20 21      8.4          N    Spring Arbor of Williamsburg                    935 Capitol Landing Rd                Williamsburg            so          so        46            4            0 21      9.9        NNW      Greenfield Senior Living of Williamsburg        251 Patriot Ln                        Williamsburg            90          75        65            10          0 22B      5.8        NNW      Williamsburg Landing                            5500 Williamsburg Landing Dr          James City            193          128        90          33            5 23      8.2        NNW      Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg                3800 Treyburn Dr                      James City            338          284        241          34            9 23      8.5        NNW      WindsorMeade Williamsburg                      3900 Windsor Hall Dr                  James City              54          33        11          22            0 23      8.6        NNW      Edgeworth Park at New Town                      5501 Discovery Park Blvd              James City              83          78        58          20            0 23      9.0        NNW      Eastern State Hospital                          4601 lronbound Rd                      James City            300          265        215          20            30 23      10.4        NNW      Pavilion At Williamsburg Place                  5483 Mooretown Rd                      James City              57          52        28            18            6 24      6.3        NW      English Meadows Williamsburg Campus            1807 Jamestown Rd                      James City              48          11          5            6          0 24      6.4        NW      Consulate Health Care                          1811 Jamestown Rd                      James City              90          87        0          43            44 The Convalescent at Patriots Colony-24      8.7        NW      Williamsburg                                    6200 Patriots Colony Dr                James City            490          440        374          so            16 EPZTOTAL:        2,789        2,282      1,521        568          193 1 These facilities are small adult care homes/group homes identified by Newport News City officials. Data for these facilities are unavailable. It is assumed that residents will evacuate in personal veh icles.
Surry Power Station                                                                    E-6                                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                            Rev. 0
 
Table E-4. Major Employers 2 within the EPZ
                                                                                                                                %                            Employee Employees        Employees        Vehicles Distance      Dire-                                                                          Employees      Commuting          Commuting      Commuting PAZ      (miles)      ction                  Facility Name                        City/County      (Max Shift}      into the EPZ      into the EPZ    into the EPZ Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the          PAZ        James City              7,158          64.6%            4,622            4,402 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the          PAZ                                2,326          64.6%              1,503            1,432 Newport News 14        6.4          w        Fort Eustis                                                            8,000          70.0%              5,600            5,600 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the          PAZ                                419            64.7%              271              258 Surry 8          -            -      Surry Power Station                                                      812            79.9%              649              618 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the          PAZ        Williamsburg          4,235            64.6%              2,736            2,607 Various locations represented by census blocks throughout the          PAZ                                501            64.7%              324              308 16        7.0        ENE      Yorktown Naval Weapons Station                                          2,000          70.0%              1,400            1,333 York 208        9.8          N        Camp Peary                                                              300            70.0%              210              200 208        9.9        NNE      Cheatham Annex Naval Supply Center                                      1,000          70.0%              700              667 EPZTOTAL:          26,751              -              18,015          17,425
'The major employer locations are shown in Figure E-8. The locations are represented by circles wh ich increase in size proportional to the number of employees commuting into the EPZ in each census block. Note, the employment data for SPS and for military installations were provided by Dominion and by local agencies. Refer to Section 3.4 for details.
Surry Power Station                                                                      E-7                                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                      Rev. 0
 
Table E-5. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ 14          5.6          E        Fort Eustis                                                        Newport News          Campground          53            19 15          9.9          ESE      Nicewood Park 3                        Nicewood Dr                Newport News          Park            Local residents only 16          7.3          E        Lee's Mill Historic Park                280-310 Rivers Ridge Cir    Newport News          Park                10            4 16          7.9          E        Americana Park East 4                  406 Merry Oaks Dr          Newport News          Campground      Local residents only 16          8.1          E        Newport News Park Campground            13564 Jefferson Ave        Newport News          Campground        464            188 16          8.1          E        Shady Oaks Mobile Homes4                429 S Trellis Ct            Newport News          Campground      Local residents only 16          8.3          E        Shodon Management Co 4                  429 S Trellis Ct            Newport News          Campground      Local residents only 16          8.4          E        Newport News Park                      13564 Jefferson Ave        Newport News          Park              700            280 16          8.6          E        Paul's Mobile Home Park 4              15088 Warwick Blvd          Newport News          Campground      Local residents only 18A          6.6        NNE        Gibson Mobile Home Estates4            125 Burgess St              James City            Campground      Local residents only 18C          5.5        ENE        Windy Hills Mobile Home Park4          8920 Pocahontas Tri        James City            Campground      Local residents only 18C          5.6        NE        Carter's Cove Campground                8758 Pocahontas Tri        James City            Campground          45            25 18C          5.7        NE        Country Village Mobile Home Park4      10 Gray Gables Dr          James City            Campground      Local residents only 20A          10.2          N        Waller Mill Park                        901 Airport Rd              York                  Park              300            150 20B          9.8        NNE        Kings Creek RV Campground                                          York                  Campground        518            247 22A          5.4        NW        Jamestown National Park                1367 Colonial Pkwy          James City            Park              1,056          190 23          9.9          N        Anvil Campground                        5243 Mooretown Rd          James City            Campground        160            60 24          9.8        NW        Greensprings Mobile Home Park4          1 Red Oak Dr                James City            Campground      Local residents only 24          11.8        NW        Chickahominy Riverfront Park            1350 John Tyler Hwy        James City            Campground        450            150 EPZTOTAL:      4,726          1,639 3 Nicewood Park in Table E-5, and Queen's Hithe and Potter's Field Historical Park in Table E-7 are small transient attractions included in Newport News Radiological Emergency Response Plan. Visitors are assumed to be local residents who have been counted as permanent residents; therefore, no transients or transient vehicles were assigned to these facilities. Refer to Section 3.3 for additional details.
4 These facilities are mobile home parks wherein the residents are included in the 2020 Census. These people have been included as permanent residents in Section 3.1. As such, no transients or transient vehicles were assigned to these mobile home parks.
Surry Power Station                                                                      E-8                                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Table E-6. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ Distance  Dire-PAZ      (miles)  ction                      Facility Name                          Street Address        City/County Facility Type  Transients  Vehicles 2        6.0      w      Surry Seafood Marina                                633 Marina Dr            Surry        Marina            111          47 14        5.6      ESE    The Pines Golf Course at Fort Eustis                3501 Mulberry Island Dr  Newport News  Golf Course      175          112 15      11.1      ESE    Deep Creek Landing Marina                            200 Old Marina Ln        Newport News  Marina            14          14 15      11.1      ESE    Menchville Marina                                  494 Menchville Rd S      Newport News  Marina            279          108 16        7.7      ESE    Denbigh Boat Ramp                                    Denbigh Blvd            Newport News  Marina            129          90 16        9.2        E    Newport News Golf Club at Deer Run                  901 Clubhouse Way        Newport News  Golf Course      280          70 18B        4.6      NNE    Kingsmill Golf Club                                  1010 Kingsmill Rd        James City    Golf Course      664          280 19A        6.1      NNE    Williamsburg Country Club                            1801 Merrimac Tri        York          Golf Course      275          106 20B        9.9      NNE    Deer Cove Golf Course                                108 Sanda Ave            York          Golf Course        90          32 21        6.2      N      The Green Course at Golden Horseshoe Golf Club      651 S England St        Williamsburg  Golf Course      222          86 21        6.7      N      Golden Horseshoe Golf Course                        401 South England St      Williamsburg  Golf Course      350          158 23      10.7    NNW      Ford's Colony Country Club                          240 Fords Colony Dr      James City    Golf Course      581          245 24        6.1      NW      James City County Marina                            2054 Jamestown Rd        James City    Marina            90          35 24        8.0      NW      First Colony Beach and Marina                        94 Shellbank Dr          James City    Marina            so          38 24        9.0      NW      Williamsburg National Golf Club                      3700 Centerville Rd      James City    Golf Course      349          147 24      10.6    WNW      Marina -Two Rivers Country Club                      1636 Harbor Rd          James City    Marina            183          71 24      11.0    WNW      Two Rivers Country Club                              1400 Two Rivers Rd      James City    Golf Course      291          123 EPZTOTAL:      4,133        1,762 Surry Power Station                                                          E-9                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                        Rev. 0
 
Table E-7. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ Distance      Dire-PAZ    (miles)      ction                  Facility Name                          Street Address              City/County          Facility Type        Transients Vehicles 2        6.8        w      Smith's Fort Plantation                      217 Smith Fort Ln                  Surry                Historical Site                26          10 6        4.2      SSW      Bacon's Castle                              465 Bacons Castle Tri              Surry                Historical Site                34          13 15        8.9        ESE      Warwick Court House                          379 Deshazer Dr                    Newport News        Historical Site                62          24 16        6.5        E      Queen's Hithe 3                              Enterprise Dr                      Newport News        Historical Site            Local residents only 16        6.8        E      Skiffe's Creek Redoubt                      22 Enterprise Dr                  Newport News        Historical Site                15          6 16        7.1        ENE      Lee Hall Mansion                            163 Yorktown Rd                    Newport News        Historical Site              103          40 362 Yorktown Rd Suite 16        7.8        ENE      Endview Plantation                          1017                              Newport News        Historical Site                26          10 16        8.6        ESE      Potter's Field Historical Park 3            14747 Warwick Blvd                Newport News        Historical Site            Local residents only 16        8.8        E      Stoney Run Athletic Complex                  15194 Warwick Blvd                Newport News        Other, Not Listed              464        180 18B        5.4      NNE      Busch Gardens                                1 Busch Garden Blvd              James City          Other, Not Listed            9,030      3,500 19A        7.4      NNE      Water Country USA                            176 Water Country Pkwy            York                Other, Not Listed            3,225      1,250 21        7.2        N      Colonial Williamsburg5                      Duke of Gloucester St              Williamsburg        Historical Site              Included below 21        7.8        N      Colonial Williamsburg Visitors Center        101 Visitor Center Dr              Williamsburg        Historical Site              2,200        825 24        6.3        NW      Jamestown Settlement                        2110 Jamestown Rd                James City            Historical Site              4,344        835 EPZTOTAL:            19,529      6,693 5 Transients and vehicles visiting Colonial Williamsburg were assigned to the Colonial Williamsburg Visitors Center. Refer to Section 3.3 for additional details.
Surry Power Station                                                                      E-10                                                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                          Rev. 0
 
Table E-8. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Distance  Dire-PAZ    (miles)  ction                            Facility Name                                    Street Address    City/County  Transients  Vehicles 14      6.9      E    General Smalls Inn                                                    1700 Madison Ave      Newport News      944        366 16      7.1      E    Fort Eustis Inn                                                      16924 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      52          20 16      7.2      E    Comfort Inn Newport News/Williamsburg East                            16890 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      228          85 16      7.2      E    Mulberry Inn                                                          16890 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      261        101 16      7.8      E    Motel 6 Newport News                                                  15540 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      116          45 16      8.3      E    Economy Inn & Suites                                                  15237 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      98          73 16      8.8      ESE    Days Inn Newport News                                                14747 Warwick Blvd    Newport News      232        138 18A      6.6      N    Country Inn & Suites Williamsburg East                                7135 Pocahontas Tri    James City        268        123 18A      6.6    NNE    Rodeway Inn & Suites                                                  7224 Merrimac Tri      James City        200          60 18A      6.8      N    Fort Magruder INN                                                    6945 Pocahontas Tri    James City        924        422 18B      4.4    NNE    Kingsmill Resort and Spa                                              1010 Kingsmill Rd      James City      1,289        395 18B      5.7    NNE    DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel                                            50 Kingsmill Rd        James City        300        150 18B      6.0    NNE    Holiday Inn Express Williamsburg Busch Gardens Area                    480 Mclaws Cir        James City        258        100 18B      6.0    NNE    Courtyard by Marriott                                                  470 Mclaws Cir        James City        452        175 19A      5.9    NNE    Parkside Resort Williamsburg                                          1821 Merrimac Tri      York              370        156 19A      7.2    NNE    Wyndham Garden Williamsburg Busch Gardens Area                        201 Water Country Pkwy York              503        195 19A      7.7    NNE    Kings Creek Plantation                                                191 Cottage Cove Ln    York            2,140        856 20A      8.1      N    Comfort Suites                                                        237 Commons Way        York              272          86 20A      8.1      N    Hampton Inn & Suites                                                  718 Bypass Rd          York              435        105 20A      8.1      N    Sleep Inn Historic                                                    220 Bypass Rd          York              276          98 20A      8.1      N    La Quinta Inn & Suites                                                600 Bypass Rd          York              349        134 20A      8.1      N    Days Inn Historic                                                    706 Bypass Rd          York              320        156 20A      8.2      N    Country Inn & Suites                                                  400 Bypass Rd          York              204        102 20A      8.2      N    Homewood Suites                                                      601 Bypass Rd          York              244          92 20A      8.2      N    Holiday Inn Hotel & Su ites                                          515 Bypass Rd          York              312        120 20A      8.3      N    Travelodge Inn & Suites                                                120 Bypass Rd          York              360        170 20A      8.3      N    Comfort Inn                                                            331 Bypass Rd          York              348        126 20A      8.3      N    Club Wyndham Patriots' Place                                          725 Bypass Rd          York            1,568        392 20A      8.3      N    Williamsburg Plantation Reception Center                              100 Waller Mill Rd    York              139          54 20A      8.4      N    Days Inn                                                              119 Bypass Rd          York              210        140 20A      8.4      N    Best Western Inn                                                      201 Bypass Rd          York              288        140 20A      8.6      N    Embassy Suites Williamsburg                                          3006 Mooretown Rd      York              507        250 Surry Power Station                                                            E-11                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. 0
 
Distance  Dire-PAZ      (miles)  ction                            Facility Name                              Street Address    City/County  Transients  Vehicles 20A        8.6      N  Wyndham Kingsgate                                                619 Georgetown Cres    York            3,000        1,680 20A        9.1      N  Wyndham Governors Green                                          4600 Mooretown Rd      York            998          550 21        6.5    NNW  Colonial Gardens Bed and Breakfast                              1109 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      9            9 21        6.7      N    Newport House Bed & Breakfast                                  710 South Henry St    Williamsburg      4            4 21        6.8      N    Maceo Consolidated Lodge                                        630 S Henry St        Williamsburg      15            6 21        6.9    NNW  Williamsburg Sampler Bed & Breakfast                            922 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      12            4 21        6.9      N    Bassett Motel                                                  800 York St            Williamsburg      36          18 21        6.9      N  A Williamsburg White House                                      718 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      12            6 21        7.0      N  Williamsburg Lodge                                              310 S England St      Williamsburg    833          323 21        7.0      N  Cedars of Williamsburg Bed & Breakfast                          616 Jamestown Rd      Williamsburg      18            6 21        7.0      N  OYO Hotel Williamsburg Busch Gardens                            505 York St            Williamsburg    243          113 21        7.1      N  Williamsburg Inn                                                136 E Francis St      Williamsburg    192          118 21        7.1      N  Williamsburg Lodge                                              310 South England St  Williamsburg    908          452 21        7.1      N    Best Western Williamsburg Historic District                    351 York St            Williamsburg    300          263 21        7.2      N  Orrell Kitchen - Colonial House and Griffin Hotel                302 Francis St E      Williamsburg    173          67 21        7.2      N    Bluegreen Vacations Patrick Henry Sqr, Ascend Resort Collection 249 York St            Williamsburg    165          64 21        7.2      N  Chiswell Bucktrout House                                        416 Francis St E      Williamsburg      23            9 21        7.2      N    Ewing Storehouse                                                338 Francis St E      Williamsburg      3            1 21        7.2      N    BG Williamsburg                                                315 York St            Williamsburg    351          136 21        7.3      N  The Fife and Drum Inn                                            441 Prince George St  Williamsburg      27          13 21        7.4      N  Aldrich House Bed & Breakfast                                    505 Capitol Court      Williamsburg      12            8 21        7.4      N  Governor's Trace Bed & Breakfast                                303 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg      8            7 21        7.5      N    Rodeway Inn Historic                                            309 Page St            Williamsburg    334          155 21        7.5      N  Super 8 Williamsburg Historic Area                              304 2nd St            Williamsburg    225          112 21        7.5      N  Colonial Capital Bed & Breakfast                                501 Richmond Rd        Williamsburg      8            4 21        7.6      N  The Williamsburg Manor Bed & Breakfast                          600 Richmond Rd        Williamsburg      12            9 21        7.6      N    Harp & Thistle Inn                                              601 Richmond Rd        Williamsburg      15            6 21        7.6      N  Applewood Colonial B & B Inc                                    605 Richmond Rd        Williamsburg    300          71 21        7.7      N  Alice Person House                                              616 Richmond Rd        Williamsburg      4            4 21        7.7      N    Magnolia Manor                                                  700 Richmond Rd        Williamsburg      7            7 21        7.8      N    Budget Inn Williamsburg                                        800 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg      78          38 21        7.9      N    Mainstay Suites Williamsburg 1-64                              814 Capitol Landing Rd Williamsburg    200          121 21        7.9      N  Williamsburg Woodlands Hotel & Suites                            105 Visitor Center Dr  Williamsburg    1,200        300 Surry Power Station                                                      E-12                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                  Rev. 0
 
Distance  Dire-PAZ      (miles)  ction                              Facility Name                                    Street Address          City/County    Transients  Vehicles 21        7.9      N    Red Roof Inn Williamsburg                                              824 Capitol Landing Rd      Williamsburg          80        80 21        7.9      N    Travelodge-King William Inn                                            834 Capital Landing Rd      Williamsburg          205        153 21        7.9      N    Econo Lodge Colonial                                                    442 Parkway Dr              Williamsburg          189        58 21        8.1      N    Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg                                      911 Capitol Landing Rd      Williamsburg          328        152 21        8.2      N    Westgate Historic Williamsburg Resort                                  1324 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          230        89 21        8.3      N    Rochambeau Motel                                                        929 Capitol Landing Rd      Williamsburg          21        21 21        8.4      N    Fairfield Inn & Suites Williamsburg                                    1402 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          483        148 21        8.5      N    Patriots Inn                                                            1420 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          168        65 21        8.7      N    Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Williamsburg                        1452 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          284        174 21        8.9      N    America's Inn                                                          1610 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          116        45 21        8.9      N    Hilton Garden Inn Williamsburg                                          1624 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          330        202 21        8.9    NNW    SpringHill Suites                                                      1644 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          350        179 21        9.0    NNW    Residence Inn Williamsburg                                              1648 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          400        108 21        9.0    NNW    Johnson's Guest House                                                  101 Thomas Nelson Ln        Williamsburg            9          3 21        9.3    NNW    Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg                                      1900 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          180        55 21        9.8    NNW    Clarion Hotel Williamsburg 1-64                                        3032 Richmond Rd            Williamsburg          481        223 228        4.5    NNW    Wedmore Place                                                          5810 Wessex Hundred        James City            84        39 23        7.8    NNW    The Historic Powhatan Resort                                            3601 lronbound Rd          James City          1,335      620 23      10.0    NNW    Williamsburg Plantation                                                4870 Longhill Rd            James City          1,563      606 23      10.1    NNW    Quality Inn & Suites                                                    5351 Richmond Rd            James City            200        60 23      10.2    NNW    Pineapple Inn and Housing Center                                        5437 Richmond Rd            James City            150        40 23      10.5    NNW    The Colonies of Williamsburg                                            5380 Olde Towne Rd          James City            457        212 23      10.5    NNW    Marriott's Manor Club at Ford's Colony                                  101 St Andrews Dr          James City            601        276 24        8.8      NW    Greensprings Plantation Resort                                          3500 Ludwell Pkwy          James City            966        592 EPZTOTAL:      33,402      14,509 Table E-9. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Distance    Dire-                                                                                    Cap-PAZ        (miles)    ction                  Facility Name                  Street Address    City/County    acity Merrimac Juvenile Detention Center        9300 Merrimac Tri                      ':
18C                            IVirginia Peninsula Regional Jail          9320 Merrimac Tri    James City EPZTOTAL:      643 Surry Power Station                                                              E-13                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                    Rev. 0
 
                                                /
                                          /
Charles
                  'c-i!__Y Coanty
                                        /
este
                                                                                                                                                                \
I I
I I
ClarJmont Surry
                    \          County
                      \
                        \
                                                                                                                                        /              News Legend                                                                                                              7'  James River:
(;l SPS School PAZ                                                                                                                            /
                                                                                                                                                              /
Shadow Region                                                                                                                /
Oate:6/26/2022 Copyright:ESRI 0ataandMaps 2020 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings KLD Engineering, Domiinion /
2.5 www.census.gov Figure E-1. Overview of Schools within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                        E-14                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Map No.                  Facility Nam e 1 Berkeley Middle Schoo l 2 Bruton High School 3 Clara Byrd Baker Ele men tary School College of William and Mary DJ Mont ague Elementary School 6 James Bla i r Middle School 7 Jamestown High Schoo l 8 l aurel lane Ele mentary School 9 Magru de r Elementary School 10 Ma t oaka El ementa ry School 11 Matthew Whaley Elementa ry Sc hool 12 Provide nce Class i cal Schoo l 13 Queens Lake Middle Sc hool Legend                                                                                                    PAZ:21
                  .i    School GJ    PAZ                                          P.
Shadow Region                    \.,
                                                        " Oa te:6/26/2022
                                                                          .t
              \... _,, 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rin gs        . . Copyright:
                                                            .          ESRI Oataand Figure E-2. Schools within the EPZ - North Surry Power Station                                                                                    E-15                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Map No.                                Facility Name 1 BC Charles Elementary School David A Dutrow Elementary School Denbigh High Schoo l                                                              Jllmes 4 Ella Fitzgerald Middle School                                                      City 5 First Bapti st Ch u rch Denbigh                                    ~            Couhty 6 Gene ra I Stanford Elementary School 7 Geo rgeJ McIntosh El ementary 8 James River Elementary School
                                                                                                ;-_ \--!'AZ: 18D  J 9 Jenkins Elementary Schoo l                                                \
10 Katherine Johnson El ementary School 11 Kno llwood Meadows Elementary School                                        \
12 Mary Passage Middle School 13 Menchville High School 14 New Horizon s Regiona l Educat i on Center: Newport Academy 15 Ol ive r C Greenwood Elementary School 16 Rich neck Elementary School 17 Sanfo rd Elementary Schoo l 18 Stoney Run Elementary School 19 Warwick River Christ ian School I
I
                                      \Isle of Wight County                                              James River Legend J;    School
(;l    PAZ Shadow Region Date:6/26/2022 Copyright: ESRI OataandMaps ZOZO
              '--  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings        KlD Engineering,Domiinion www.censlls.gov Figure E-3. Schools within the EPZ - East Surry Power Station                                                                                                E-16            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
                                              /
                                          /
                                    / >
                                        /
este
                                                                                                                                                          \
Charles I City /
County i
I I
I I
ClarJmont            _____,__L- - - - --1..
I I
2                              I
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                                                                                              \
Chtp 5  ;::~:
Surry County
                        \
Legend                                                                                                          /
                    *~
SPS Day Care Center 7'
                                                                                                                                /
James River:
1:1:1    Day Camp                                                                                                                  /
GJ        PAZ                                                                                                                    /
Shadow Reg ion                                                                                                        /
Oate:6/26/2022
                '--    _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Copyright:ESRI 0ataandMaps 2020 KLD Engineering, Domiinion /
sle of                                2.5 www.census.gov                                    ight Coun Figure E-4. Overview of Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                            E-17                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                  Rev. O
 
Map No.                  Fac ility Name 1 4-H Camp 2 Childcare Network 3 Gilead Ch ristia n Academy York River, 4 Grove ABC Day Care 5 King's Way Church/Greenwood Chri stian 6 King of Glory Lutheran Church 7 La Petite Academy#965 8 la Petite Academy #898 9 Lea RN Lily Chi l d Development Center 10 New Town United Methodist Church 11 Th e Godda r d School 12 The Kensington Schoo l Legend
                  ~    Day Care Center ml    Day Camp GJ      PAZ Shadow Region                                                                                    James River
              '--  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Figure E-5. Day Care Centers and Day Camps within the EPZ - North Surry Power Station                                                                            E-18                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                            Rev. O
 
Map No.                                Fac ility Name 1 A Heavenly Haven Child Development Center 2 B.C. Charles School Age Program 3 Begin n ings Academy of learning, LLC 4 Christ Commun i ty Outreach Center Colon ial Bapt ist Chu r ch Denbigh Christian Academy Denbigh Early Childhood Center Denbigh Early Childhood Kids Program I
Denbigh Head Start Center 10 Denbigh Presbyterian Church io_;_~C\(    I
                                                                                                                                        <l:: t>/r ~ Ter 11 Epes School Age Program I
                                                                                                                                    ~ ~
12 First Baptist Church Denbigh Child Development Center 13 Gi rls In c. @Cypress Terrace                                                                                              I 14 God's Way Christian Academy                                                                              1
                                                                                                                                  /;!
                                                                                                                                      ~
I 15 Greenwood School Age Program 16 HolyTabernacle Christian Chi ld Development Center
                                                                                                                                            ~
17 HolyTabernacle Church Of De liverance 18 HRCAPAyers Head Start Center                                                                            ~~
19 Jenkins School Age Program                                                                              ~
20 Kiddy City Daycare 21 Kids Are People Too Childcare Cen t er 22 Light Of Hope Community Church 23 Living Waters Christian Fellows hip Church 24 Ma ry Passage Schoo l Age Program 25 Mcintosh Schoo l Age Program 26 Nelson School Age Program 27 New Beech Grove Baptist Church 28 Peninsula Pentecostals 29 Refo rm ation Lutheran Church 30 RichneckSchool Age Program 31 Sanford School Age Program 32 Second Presbyterian Church 33 Stepp i ng Stones Child Development Center 34 The Garden of Children Ltd 3S Toddler Station #Iv, Inc .
37
                    /
              /
James River Legend
                    ~      Day Care Center
(;l      PAZ Shadow Region
                '--  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings Figure E-6. Day Care Centers within the EPZ - East Surry Power Station                                                                                  E-19                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Facility Name ARC Peninsula Saddler Home Inc Brookdale Chambrel Williamsburg Campbel l House Charter Senior living of Newport News Colonial ManorSeniorCommunity 6 Commonwealth Senior Livi ng Community Alternative Consulate Health Care Disabled Veterans Meeting Hall 10 Eastern State Hospital 11 Edgeworth Park at New Tow n 12 English Meadows Wi l liamsburg Campus 13 EnvoyofWil liamsburg 14 Greenfield Sen ior living of Willia ms burg 15 McDonald Army Health Ce nter 16 Mennowood Retirement Community 17 Mile-A-Way Adult Home 18 Morningside of Williamsburg Legend                                                                        19 Pavili on At Williamsburg Place
                  *e SPS Medical Facility 20 Rive rside Doctors' Hospita l Williamsburg 21 Sacred hearts Ministry 22 Serenity House 23 Serenity House, Trust House
(;l    PAZ                                                                  24 SpringArborofWi lliamsburg Shadow Region                                                        25 The Conva lescent at Patriots Co l ony-Wil li amsburg 26 Verena At The Reserve
              '--  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                              27 Williamsburglanding 28 WindsorMeade Williamsburg Figure E-7. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                E-20                                                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                Rev. O
 
Charles              /
                                        'G-ity          /
Couhty
_ _ ___,___L C/arempnt I
I                                                                              :r.
I I
                                                                                                                            \
40 Chip I                                                                                  5  Planta~i I            Sur r y County
                                      \
                                        \
Legend
* SPS Employees Commuting into the EPZ*
                                                                                                                                                              /
James River
                                                                                                                                                          /
                          "l ',,~
                                                      *Sy mbol size is propotiona l to the numb er of employees present in eac h Census Block.
                                                                                                                                                                            /
                                                                                                                                                                              /
(jJ        PAZ
                                                                                                                                                                          /
Shadow Region Date:7/28/2022 r    ~      2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings                  Copyright: ESRI Data and Maps 2020 KLD Engineering, Domiinion/
2.5 w~ w.census.gov Smithfield Figure E-8. Major Employers within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                                      E-21                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                                  Rev. O
 
M ap No.                  Fac ility Name 1 Americana Park East
            ,__ _ _  2+A_n_v_il_C_a m  ~r_ou_ n_d_ _ _ _ _7 /
                                      ~ pg 3 Carter's Cove Campgroun d 4 ChickahominyRiverfron t Park 5 Chippokes Plan tat io n State Park 6 Cou ntry Vil lage Mobile Home Park 7 Fort Eus t is 8 Gi bson Mobile Home Estates 9 Gree nspri ngs Mobile Home Park 10 Jamestown National Park 11 Kings Creek RV Campground 12 Lee's Mill Histo ric Park 13 Newpo rt News Park 14 Newport News Park Campgroun d 15 Nicewood Pa rk 18 Shodon Manageme nt Co 19 Wa ll er Mi l l Par k 20 Windy Hi ll s Mobile Home Park I
I Surry
                                            \        County
                                                \
Legend SPS Campground 7-
                                                                                                                                              /
                                                        \
                  @    Park dron
(;l    PAZ
                                                                  \                                                                                        /
Shadow Regio n                                                                                                                  /
              '--  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                        "
Oate:9/S/2O22 Copyright:ESRI O~taandMaps2020 KLO Engineering, Oomi inion 2.5 Miles W'Nw.census.gov        "-
Figure E-9. Campgrounds and Parks within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                            E-22                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Map No.                              Facility Name 1 Dee p Creek Lan ding Marina Deer Cove Golf Course Den bi gh Boat Ramp 4 First Colony Beach And Marina 9 Marina -TwoRi vers CountryClub                                                    /
24 @
10 Menchville Marina 1--- -ll-+-N_e_w-po- ,-, _Ne_w_s_G_o-lf-Cl_u_b-at_D _e_e_rR _u_n_ _ ___,-                    I
            ======1=2: S=u=rr=y=S=**=f=oo=d=M== *r=in=*==================                        ,
13 The Green Course at Golden Horseshoe Go lf Cl ub                          L/. /
l-- 4+T                                  _t_F_o_rt-E-us_t_is - - - ---1 4:D C,;
                          ~h_e_P_in_e_s_G_o~lf-Co_u_r_se_A 15 Two Rivers Cou ntry Club I
I
                                              "'s ffi I
40 I
I I
Surry County
                                                        \
Legend                                                                                                                                          /
* SPS
                    @ Golf Course
                                                                  \
                                                                      \
                                                                                                                                                            /
                    @ Mari na                                              \
Dendron
(;l    PAZ Shadow Region 0ate:6/26/2022
                '--  _.. 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rin gs                  Copyright:ESRI 0ataan dMaps2020 KL0Engineering,Domiinion
* ifty      2.S Miles www.census.gov              "-
                                                                                                                                                      \ .s:
Figure E-10. Golf Courses and Marinas within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                                      E-23                                      KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Map No.                  Facility Name 1 Baco n's Cas t le 2 Busch Ga rd ens 3 Colonial Willia m sburg 4 Colonial Williamsburg Vis itors Center 5 Endview Plan t at ion 6 Jamestow n Settlemen t 7 Lee Hall Mansion 8 Pot ter's Fi eld Hi stori ca l Park 9 Queen's Hit he 10 Skiffe 's Creek Redou bt 11 Sm ith's Fo rt Plantati on 12 St oney Run Ath let ic Comp lex 13 Warwick Court House 14 Water Cou ntry USA
_______....__L Oaremf;nt I
I Chipp 5    :::;:
I I
Surry
                                          \          County
                                            \
Legend
                                                                                                                                                      /
SPS                                                                                                                        7-
                  ~    Hi storical Site
(;l Other, Not Listed PAZ
                                                            \
dron
                                                                    \                                                                                              /
Shadow Regi o n                                                                                                                        /
              '-- _.,  2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                          "
Oate: 9/S/2022 Copyright:ESRI O~ta andMa ps2020 KLD Engi neering, Oomi inion 2.5 Miles W'Nw.ce nsus.gov        "-
Figure E-11. Historical Sites and Other Recreational Facilities within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                      E-24                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                  Rev. O
 
Map No.                          Facility Name 1 Comfort Inn Newport News/Williamsburg East Days Inn Newport News Double Tree by Hilton Hotel 4 Economy Inn & Su ites S Fort Eustis Inn 6 Genera l Smalls Inn Greensprings Plantat ion Resort Kings Creek Plantation Kingsmill Resort and Spa 10 Marriott's Manor Club at Ford's Colony 11 Motel 6 Newport News 12 Mu l be rry Inn 13 Parkside Resort Williamsburg 14 The Col onies ofWilliamsbu rg 1S The Historic Powhatan Resort 16 Wed more Pl ace 17 WilliamsburgPlantation 18 Wyndham Garden Wi lli amsburg Busch Gardens Area Newport News PAZ: 16 Surry County
                                                            \
                                                              \                                                                              /
Legend
                                                                  \
SPS lliiil    Lodging Facility
(;l        PAZ
                                                                              '\
Shadow Region 0ate: 6/26/2022        "\,.
              '--      _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings        ~~gv;~~~~~~~g~:~~~i:naps 2020,                                                        2.5 www.census.gov Miles Figure E-12. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (1 of 3)
Surry Power Station                                                                                            E-25                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Map No.                              Faci lity Name 1 A W il lia m sburg W h ite House                                        __  ,o*Mlles -
2 Bassett Motel 3 Cedars of W illi amsbu rgBed & Br eakfast 4 Cla r ion Hotel Wil li amsburg 1-64 5 Colonia l Gardens Bed and Breakfast 6 Country Inn & Suites W i ll iamsbu rg East 7 Courtya rd by Marriott 8 Fort Magruder INN 9 Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsb urg 10 Holiday Inn Express Wi lli amsburg Busch Gardens Area 11 Johnson's Guest House PAZ:b L    York County 12 Maceo Consol idated Lod ge 13 Newport House Bed & Breakfa st 14 OYO Hotel W ill iamsburg Busch Gardens 15 Pineapple Inn and Housing Center 16 Qua l ity Inn & Suites 17 Rodeway Inn & Suites 18 Super 8 W i ll iamsburg His t oric Area Figure E-14
                                                                                                ~
lliil    Lodging Faci lity Q        PAZ Shadow Region 0~  6/26/2022 Copyright:ESRI Oat
              ,    _.. 2, 5, 10, 15 Mi le Rings            KLOEngineering, www.census.gov Figure E-13. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (2 of 3)
Surry Power Station                                                                                        E-26                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
                                                                                                      ~~                                                                                                                        ~
Map No.                                          Fac ility Name 1 Aldri ch House Bed & Breakfast 2 Alice Person House 3 Amer ica's Inn 4 Apple wood Colo ni al B & B In c 5 Best Western Inn 6 Best Western Will iamsburg Historic District
                                                                                                      =i.ie
                                                                                                      ~~
                                                                                                              ,p"*"""
                                                                                                                    . r&#xa3;:,                                                                              PAZ: 20A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ** s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            .::,."-f....,
Legend Iii!
GJ Lodging Facility PAZ Shadow Region 7 BGwi l liamsburg                                                            \10<:-
                                                                                                                        '                                                                                                                                                                          1;.t,,
8 Bl uegreen Vacations Patrick Henry Sqr, Ascend Resort Collection 9 Budget Inn Wil liamsburg e i.i            ~*                                                            '"'      f' 10 Chi swell Bucktrout House 11 Club Wyndham Patriots' Place 12 Colon ial Capital Bed & Breakfast 13 Comfort Inn 14 Comfort Su ites
                                                                                                      ~
                                                                                                      ~\
m ~mim=
Ill ~
O I]            ~r co-un!.!'
ta ,..,
                                                                                                                                        ~                              ~
15 Country Inn & Suites                                                              q (ti
                                                                                                                                                                        ;~
Iii!    ~Iii
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              --/f                ~                                            .,J
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ~..
16 Days Inn                                                                    ~        Z:                                                                                        rv--
                                                                                                                                                                        ~                                                                        '
17 Days Inn Historic V"V
                                                                                                                              ~o~
                                                                                                      ~~
18 Econo Lodge Colonial                                                        >--(::,1 19 Embassy Su ites Will iamsburg 321                                                                                                              32 20 Ewing Storehouse 21 Fairfield Inn & Su ites Williamsbu rg
                                                                                                                                                                      -,,        4~:Veq                                                                            Colonifilj:!ational......._ ~
22 Governor's Trace Bed & Breakfast                                                                                                            ('1--5                es,                                                                      Historical Parl<    - ~
y 23 Hampton Inn & Suites                                                                                                                                                                        <l" 24 Hampton Inn & Suites Williamsburg
                                                                                                                                                                          \                                          cc 25 Harp & Thistle Inn ll ~                                                !I                      z
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      . e i
26 Hilton Garden Inn Wil li amsburg 27 Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Wil l iamsbu rg                                                                      r                                                                    PAZ: 21            ~1;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ~
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                                                                                                                                                                                      /7 , =,\
28 Holiday Inn Hotel & Su it es 29 Homewood Suites 30 La Quinta Inn & Suites y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                =en                            ~
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31 Magnolia Manor 32 Mainstay Su it es Wil l ia msbu rg l-64 wF<ancisS\ /
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33 Orre l l Kitchen -Colonial House and Griffin Hotel                                                                                                                                                            l    El
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L1/4    ' -3/4y<--
36 Residence Inn Wil liamsburg 37 Roc hambeau Motel ll                  13.                                                                      D,      v,          ovs                                  D                            i    "ar,hvayDr 38 Rodeway Inn Historic
                                                                                                                          "'%*o-                      ~~
                                                                                                                                                                                                      ~
C-39 Sleep Inn Historic 40 SpringHill Suites 41 The Fife and Drum Inn
                                                                                                            '-      S' ti~'~,o ~
                                                                                                                                .,,O'
                                                                                                                                          ..j>"o~
                                                                                                                                                                                                            ~a.fers          eo,Bvreesses Way      '
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -3~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ~-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    =~
liilG Williamsburg                          -t.                                                                        a!
42 The Williamsburg Manor Bed & Breakfast 43 Tra ve lodge-KingWil l iam Inn 8                                                  \?_,,
PAZ: 21                ~                                                          PAZ:20A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -~'
44 Trave lodge Inn & Suites 45 Westgate Historic Wi l liamsburg Resort                                                                        o'il llili    ~,..._--4.e 11 46 Will i amsburg lnn
                                                                                                                                      ~  *-?*i".,p 47 Wi lli amsburg lodge 48 Will iamsb urg Plantation Recepti on Center
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49 Will iamsburg Woodlan ds Hotel & Suites 50 Wyndham Kingsgate
                                                                                                                                          ~.......~...
                                                                                                                                                      ~'                    m lllli /,,,                                              ~                [;I G) 0ate: 6/26/2022 Copyright: ESRI Data and Maps 2020, KL0 Engineeri ng, 0omiinion, www.cen sus. gov (Ji"
                                                                                                                                                                                ...\..,_\q;~'?,                                                              ~ o Figure E-14. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ (3 of 3)
Surry Power Station                                                                                                                            E-27                                                                                                                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Map No .                  Faci lity Name 1 CampPeary 2 Cheatham Annex Naval Su pp ly Center 3 Fort Eustis 4 Merrima c Juvenile Detention Center I
I I
ClarJmont Su r ry
                    \        County
                        \
Legend                                                                                                                    /
                  *i,i SPS Correctiona l Fa cility 7'
                                                                                                                                        /
James River:
[81      Military Instal lation                                                                                                            /
GJ        PAZ                                                                                                                              /
Shadow Region                                                                                                                /
Date: 7/10/202 2 Copyright:ESRI 0ataandMaps 2020
                '-- _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings          KL0 Engineering, Domiinion /
2.5 www.census.gov Figure E-15. Correctional Facilities and Military Installations within the EPZ Surry Power Station                                                                                  E-28                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
APPENDIX F Demographic Survey
 
F. DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY F.1      Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Surry Power Station (SPS) Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area.
Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.
These concerns are addressed by conducting a demographic survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ... ?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you t 0 ....?")
F.2      Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used for the demographic survey. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.
Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. Since the demographic survey discussed herein was performed in 2020 and the 2020 Census data had not been released, 2010 Census data was used to develop the sampling plan.
A sample size of approximately 471 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-4.5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying the 2010 Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each zip code was identified, as shown in Table F-1.
Note that the average household size computed in Table F-1 was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study.
The number of samples obtained was less than the sampling plan despite a good faith effort put forward by the offsite response organizations (OROs) and Dominion. A total of 240 completed surveys were obtained corresponding to a sampling error of +6.31% at the 95% confidence level based on the 2010 Census households. Some survey responses from the Shadow Region were Surry Power Station                              F-1                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
considered due to their proximity to the EPZ. Table F-1 also shows the number of samples obtained within each zip code.
F.3    Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.
A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "decline to state" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a decline to state response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional decline to state responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the decline to state responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.
F.3.1    Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the study area (EPZ and Shadow Region) based on the responses to the demographic survey. According to the survey, the average household contains 2.58 people. The estimated household size from the 2020 Census data is 2.51 people (including the Shadow Region population), as shown in Table F-1. The percent difference between the Census data and survey data is about 2.80% which falls within the sampling error of +/-6.31%. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication ofthe reliability ofthe survey.
Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the study area is 2.27. It should be noted that approximately 3 households (1.2 percent of households) within the study area do not have access to an automobile according to the demographic survey. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that two thirds of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.
Ridesharing Approximately, 69 percent of the households surveyed responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to evacuate in the event of an emergency, as shown in Figure F-4.
Surry Power Station                              F-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Commuters Figure F-5 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.
The data shows an average of 1.27 commuters in each household in the study area, and 73.5 percent of households have at least one commuter.
Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-6 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority (approximately 90 percent) of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work or college. The data shows an average of 1.05 commuters per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average - for carpools.
Impact of COVID-19 on Commuters Figure F-7 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household that were temporarily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 48 percent of households indicated someone in their household had a work and/or school commute that was temporarily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Functional or Transportation Needs Figure F-8 presents the distribution of the number of individuals with functional or transportation need. The survey results show that approximately 7 percent of households have functional or transportation needs. Of those with functional or transportation needs, 9 homes (56%) require a bus, 3 homes (19%) require a medical bus/van, 3 homes (19%) require a wheelchair accessible van, and one home (6%) indicated they would require other accommodations.
F.3.2  Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed:
"How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?"The response is shown in Figure F-9. On average, evacuating households would use 1.47 vehicles.
"Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?"
Of the survey participants who responded, approximately 61 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 39 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members before evacuating, as shown in Figure F-10.
"Emergency officials advise you to shelter-in-place in an emergency because you are not in the area of risk. Would your This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 84.6 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 15.4 percent would choose to evacuate the area.
Surry Power Station                          F-3                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. Thus, the compliance rate obtained above is significantly higher than the federal guidance. A sensitivity study was conducted to estimate the impact of shadow evacuation non-compliance of shelter advisory on ETE - see Appendix M.
"Emergency officials advise you to shelter-in-place now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 70.7 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 29.3 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.
"Emergency officials advise you to evacuate due to an emergency. Where would you evacuate to?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the destination of evacuees in case of an evacuation.
Results show that 46.2 percent of households indicated that they would evacuate to a friend or relatives' home, 2.9 percent of households indicated that they would evacuate to an Evacuation Assembly Center (EAC), 26.3 percent to a hotel, motel or campground, 5.1 percent to a second or seasonal home, 0.9 percent would not evacuate, and the remaining 18.6 percent answered other/don't know to this question, as shown in Figure F-11.
"If you had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" Based on the responses from the survey, 67 percent of households have a family pet, as shown in Figure F-12. Of the households with pets, approximately 20.6 percent indicated that they would take their pets with them to a shelter, 77.4 percent indicated that they would take their pets somewhere else, and 2.0 percent would leave their pet at home, as shown in Figure F-13. Ofthe households that would evacuate with their pets, 97.3 percent indicated that they have sufficient room in their vehicle to evacuate with their pet(s)/animal(s) and 2.7 percent needs a trailer.
"What type of pet(s) and/or animal(s) do you have?" Based on responses from the survey, 94.1 percent of households have a household pet (dog, cat, bird, reptile, or fish), 2.3 percent of households have farm animals (horse, chicken, goat, pig, etc.), 3.6 percent have other small pets/animals.
F.3.3  Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
Surry Power Station                              F-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
As discussed in Section F.3.1 and shown in Figure F-7, the majority (52%) of respondents indicated no commuters were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic; therefore the results for the time distribution of commuters (time to prepare to leave work and time to travel home from work) were used, as is, in this study.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities ofthe mobilization.
"Approximately how much time would it take Commuter to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?" Figure F-14 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by 40 minutes. Approximately, 86 percent can leave within 20 minutes.
"How much time on average, would it take Commuter to travel home from work or college?"
Figure F-15 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 89 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 45 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.
"If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area?" Figure F-16 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.
Results show that 95.5% of households can be ready to leave home within 3 hours; the remaining households (4.5%) require up to an additional 30 minutes.
"If there are 6-8 inches of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8 inches of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable." During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street.
Figure F-17 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.
Approximately 82% of households can have their car cleared and the driveway passable within 75 minutes; the remaining households (18%) would require up to an additional 1 hours and 45 minutes to begin their evacuation trip.
Note, that those respondents (about 17%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.
Essentially, they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.
Surry Power Station                                F-5                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
F.3.4    Emergency Communications "At your place of residence, how reliable is your cell phone signal?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the ability to be notified in case of an evacuation.
Results show that 86.8 percent of households indicated that they have very reliable signal to receive texts and phone calls, 4.6 percent indicated that their signal is reliable for text messages only, and 8.6 percent indicated that they do not always receive cell communications at their residence, as shown in Figure F-18.
"Emergency management officials in your state may send text messages, similar to AMBER Alerts, with emergency directions for the public during a radiological emergency at the Surry Power Station. How likely would you be to take action on these directions, if you received the message?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the likelihood of an individual to take action based on emergency management officials' guidelines.
Results show 78.9 percent of households indicated that they are highly likely to take action on these directions, 19. 7 percent indicated likely, 0. 7 percent indicated neither likely nor unlikely, and 0.7 percent indicated unlikely, as shown in Figure F-19.
"Which of the following emergency communication methods do you think is most likely to alert you at your residence?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding the most efficient way to alert residents within the EPZ.
Responses received show that 20. 7 percent indicated that a siren sounding near their home would be the most likely method, 43.1 percent of households indicated that a text message from emergency officials would be most likely to alert them at their residence, 4.9 percent indicated an alert broadcast on the radio, 13.5 percent indicated an alert broadcast on the TV, 9.2 percent indicated that information on Twitter or Facebook would be the most likely to alert those at their residence, 7 .6 percent indicated that a phone call/text message from a family member, friend or neighbor would be the most likely way to alert them at their residence, and 1 percent answered "other" to this question, as shown in Figure F-20.
Surry Power Station                              F-6                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Table F-1. SPS Demographic Survey Sampling Plan Population    Households    Population  Households Desired    Sample Location      Zip Code (2010)        (2010)      (2020)        (2020)  Sample    Obtained 23185    46,255        17,212      50,727        19,336    113          74 23187      267              0          646            6      0            1 23188    21,503          9,083      41,369        17,388    61          37 23430    1,418          581        13,356        5,362      4            7 23602    24,664          9,448      41,949        17,701    63          31 23603    3,884          1,355        3,598        1,414      9            2 23604    5720            837        5,160          945      6          0 N          23606        5              2        31,534        12,750      0            7 Q.
LU          23608    42638          16306        44,032        17,607    108          38 23690    2465            920        3,878        1,332      6            2 23691      127            34          127            42      1            0 23692      67            26        18,092        7,179      1          11 23839      103            39          302          131      1            0 23846      362            139          940          370      1            1 23881      663            308          983          453      2            0 23883    2536            992        2,238          973      7          4 EPZTotal      152,677        57,282      258,931      102,989    383          215 C:
23168      697            257          686          281                    7 0
    "So          23487      31            11          29            11                    2 a.,
a::        23696    2400            873        2,381          905                    2 3                                                                      N/A 0          23693    11487          4045        11,873        4,309                  4 "C
11)
    ..c:        23601    12759          5769        13,047        5,829                  9 V')
23890        0            0            3            1                    1 Shadow Region Total      27,374        10,955      28,019        11,336    N/A          25 Grand Total      180,051        68,237      286,950      114,325    383          240 Average Household Size:            2.64                      2.51 Surry Power Station                              F-7                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Household Size 50%
40%
Ill "C
0
  ~
a, Ill    30%
:::s 0
::c
    ....C0  20%
a,
    ...a,u Q.
10%
0%
1      2              3                4        5        6+
People Figure F-1. Household Size in the Study Area Vehicle Availability 50%
40%
Ill "C
0
  ~
a, Ill    30%
:::s 0
::c
    ....0C  20%
a,
    ...a, u
Q.
10%
0%
0      1              2                3        4          5 Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Surry Power Station                          F-8                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                              Rev.O
 
Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-6+ Person Households 1 Person    2 People      3 People    4 People    5 People  6+ People 100%
Ill      80%
  "Cl 0
  .c a.,
Ill
:::s    60%
0
::c
    ....0C    40%
a.,
    ...ua.,
Q.
20%
0%
0                1                2                3            4              5 Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 6+ Person Households Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%
80%
Ill "Cl 0
  .c a.,
Ill 60%
:::s 0
::c
    ....0C a.,      40%
    ...ua.,
Q.
20%
0%
Yes                                              No Figure F-4. Household Ridesharing Preference Surry Power Station                                      F-9                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev.0
 
Commuters Per Household 50%
40%
Ill "C
0
  ~
a, Ill          30%
:::s 0
::c
    ....0C        20%
a,
    ...a,u Q.
10%
0%
0                  1                  2                  3      4+
Commuters Figure F-5. Commuters per Households in the Study Area Travel Mode to Work 100%
80%
Ill
      ....:::sa,  60%
E E
0 u
40%
      ....0C a,
          ...ua, Q.
20%
0%
Bus                  Walk/Bike              Drive Alone  Carpool (2+)
Mode of Travel Figure F-6. Modes of Travel in the Study Area Surry Power Station                                  F-10                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.0
 
COVID-19 Impact to Commuters 60%
50%
Ill "C
o
  ~
40%
a, Ill
:::s 0
::c 30%
    ....0C a,
    ~    20%
a, Q.
10%
0%
0                  1                2                  3            4+
Commuters Figure F-7. Impact to Commuters due to the COVID-19 Pandemic Functional or Transportation Needs 10 9
8 Ill "C      7 0
  ~
a, Ill    6
:::s 0
::c      5 0
a,    4
  ..c E
:::s z        3 2
1 0
Bus              Medical Bus/Van      Wheelchair Accessible      Other Vehicle Figure F-8. Households with Functional or Transportation Needs Surry Power Station                                F-11                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
Evacuating Vehicles Per Household 100%
      "C Ill    80%
0
      .c    a, Ill
::I 0
::c 60%
          ....C0 a,
            ...a,u  40%
Q.
20%
0%
0                      1                      2                    3+
Vehicles Figure F-9. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Await Returning Commuter Before Leaving 100%
80%
Ill "C
0
  .ca, Ill 60%
::I 0
::c
    ....C0 a,            40%
    ...a,u Q.
20%
0%
Yes, would await return                        No, would evacuate Figure F-10. Percent of Households that Await Returning Commuter Before Leaving Surry Power Station                                            F-12                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                        Rev.0
 
Evacuation Destinations 50%
40%
Ill "D
0
            .c cu 30%
Ill 0
            ....::c0
            ... 20%
C
            ...cuucu a.
10%
0%
Friend/Relative's  Evacuation    Hotel, Motel, or A Second/Seasonal Would not Other/Don't Know Home        Assembly Center  Campground          Home        Evacuate Figure F-11. Study Area Evacuation Destinations Households with Pets/Animals 100%
80%
Ill "D
0
  .c cu Ill 60%
0
  ....::c0 C                40%
    ...ucucu a.
20%
0%
Yes                                                No Figure F-12. Households with Pets/Animals Surry Power Station                                                    F-13                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev.0
 
Households Evacuating with Pets/Animals 80%
60%
Ill "C
0
  .c a,
Ill 0
::c 40%
0....
C
    ~
a, Q.
20%
0%
Take with me to a Shelter      Take with me to Somewhere          Leave Pet at Home Else Figure F-13. Households Evacuating with Pets/Animals Time to Prepare to Leave Work/College 100%
80%
Ill
    ....:::,a, E 60%
E 0
I.J
    ....0C      40%
a, u
a, Q.
20%
0%
0        5          10        15        20        25      30        35        40      45 Preparation Time (min)
Figure F-14. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/College Surry Power Station                                        F-14                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                    Rev.0
 
Time to Commute Home From Work/College 100%
80%
    ~
    ....::Ia.,
E 60%
E 0
I.J
    ....0C      40%
a.,
    ...ua.,
0.
20%
0%
0    10          20          30          40        so        60    70          80 Travel Time (min)
Figure F-15. Time to Commute Home from Work/College Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%
80%
Ill "Cl 0
  .c a.,
Ill        60%
::I 0
::c
    ....0C      40%
a.,
u a.,
0.
20%
0%
0                60                    120                180              240 Preparation Time (min)
Figure F-16. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Surry Power Station                                    F-15                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%
80%
Ill "C
0
  ~
a, Ill    60%
:::s 0
::c
    ....0C  40%
a,
    ...a,u Q.
20%
0%
0      20      40        60        80      100      120      140  160    180      200 Time(min)
Figure F-17. Time to Remove 6-8" of Snow from Driveway or Curb Cell Phone Signal Reliability 100%
80%
Ill "C
0
  ~
a, Ill    60%
:::s 0
::c
    ....0C  40%
a,
    ...a,u Q.
20%
0%
VERY RELIABLE TO RECEIVE      RELIABLE FOR TEXT MESSAGES I DO NOT ALWAYS RECEIVE CELL TEXTS AND PHONE CALLS                      ONLY                COMMUNICATIONS AT MY RESIDENCE Figure F-18. Cell Phone Signal Reliability Surry Power Station                                      F-16                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                  Rev.0
 
Likelihood to Take Action Based off Guidelines 100%
80%
Ill "C
0
        .c a,
Ill      60%
0
::c
        ....0C    40%
a,
          ...a,u Q.
20%
0%
HIGHLY LIKELY                LIKELY          NEITHER LIKELY NOR            UNLIKELY UNLIKELY Figure F-19. Likelihood to Take Action Based off Emergency Management Officials Guidelines Emergency Communications 100%
80%
Ill "C
0
.c a,
Ill          60%
0
::c
....0C        40%
a,
  ...ua, Q.
20%
0%
A SIREN    A TEXT MESSAGE    ALERT          ALERT    INFORMATION      PHONE          OTHER SOUNDING NEAR      FROM      BROADCAST ON BROADCAST ON ON TWITTER OR    CALL/TEXT YOUR HOME      EMERGENCY        RADIO          TV        FACEBOOK  MESSAGE FROM OFFICIALS                                            FAMILY, FRIEND, OR NEIGHBOR Figure F-20. Emergency Communication Alert Surry Power Station                                                F-17                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev.0
 
ATTACHMENT A Demographic Survey Instrument Surry Power Station                  18              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                            Rev.O
 
Surry Power Station Demographic Survey
* Required Purpose The purpose of this survey is to identify local behavior during emergency situations. The information gathered in this survey will be shared with Dominion Energy and local emergency management agencies to enhance emergency response plans in your area. Your responses will greatly contribute to local emergency preparedness. Please only complete one survey per household . Please have the head of the household (18 years or older) complete the survey. Do not provide your name or any personal information, and the survey will take less than 5 minutes to complete.
: 1. 1. What is your gender?
Mark only one oval.
C) Male C) Female C) Decline to State C) Other:
: 2. 2. What is your home zip code? *
: 3. 3A. In total, how many running cars, or other vehicles are usually available to the household?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR C ) FIVE C ) SIX C ) SEVEN C ) EIGHT C ) NINE OR MORE C ) ZERO (NONE)
C ) DECLINE TO STATE
: 4. 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the area with a neighbor or friend?
Mark only one oval.
C ) YES C ) NO C ) DECLINE TO STATE
: 5. 4. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR C ) FIVE C ) SIX C ) SEVEN C ) EIGHT C ) NINE OR MORE C ) ZERO (NONE)
C ) I WOULD EVACUATE BY BICYCLE C ) I WOULD EVACUATE BY BUS C ) DECLINE TO STATE
: 6. 5. How many people usually live in this household?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR C ) FIVE C ) SIX C ) SEVEN C ) EIGHT C ) NINE C ) TEN C ) ELEVEN C ) TWELVE C ) THIRTEEN C ) FOURTEEN C ) FIFTEEN C ) SIXTEEN C ) SEVENTEEN C ) EIGHTEEN C ) NINETEEN OR MORE C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 7 COVID-19
: 7. 6. How many people in your household have a work and/or school commute that has been temporarily impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ZERO C ) ONE C ) Two C ) THREE C ) FOUR OR MORE C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 8 Commuters
: 8. 7. How many people in the household normally (during non-COVID conditions) commute
* to a job, or to college on a daily basis?
Mark only one oval.
C ) ZERO        Skip to question 53 C ) ONE      Skip to question 9 C ) TWO        Skip to question 1O C ) TH REE      Skip to question 11 C ) FOUR OR MORE          Skip to question 12 C ) DECLINE TO STATE          Skip to question 53 Mode of Travel
: 9. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive          Don't Rail      Bus      Walk/Bicycle          or more Alone          know people Commuter 1            0          0            0          0      0      0
 
Skip to question 13 Mode of Travel
: 10. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive            Don't Rail        Bus Walk/Bicycle        or more Alone            know people Commuter 1            0          0      0        0      0        0 Commuter 2            0          0      0        0      0        0 Skip to question 15 Mode of Travel
: 11. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive            Don't Rail        Bus Walk/Bicycle        or more Alone            know people Commuter 1            0          0      0        0      0        0 Commuter 2            0          0      0        0      0        0 Commuter 3            0          0      0        0      0        0 Skip to question 19 Mode of Travel
: 12. 8. Thinking about each commuter, how does each person usually travel to work or college?
Mark only one oval per row.
Carpool-2 Drive            Don't Rail        Bus Walk/Bicycle        or more Alone            know people Commuter 1            0          0      0        0      0        0 Commuter 2            0          0      0        0      0        0 Commuter 3            0          0      0        0      0        0 Commuter 4            0          0      0        0      0        0 Skip to question 25 Travel Home From Work/College
: 13. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 14. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours.
Skip to question 33 Travel Home From Work/College
: 15. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 16. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours.
: 17. 9- 2. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #2 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 18. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-2, is under 2 hours.
Skip to question 35 Travel Home From Work/College
: 19. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 20. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours.
 
21 . 9- 2. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #2 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 22. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-2, is under 2 hours.
: 23. 9- 3. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #3 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 24. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-3, is under 2 hours.
Skip to question 39 Travel Home From Work/College
: 25. 9-1. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 26. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-1, is under 2 hours.
: 27. 9- 2. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #2 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 28. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-2, is under 2 hours.
: 29. 9- 3. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #3 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 30. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-3, is under 2 hours.
 
31 . 9- 4. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #4 to travel home from work or college?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 32. If Over 2 Hours for Question 9-4, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 9-4, is under 2 hours.
Skip to question 45 Preparation to leave Work/College
: 33. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 34. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours .
Skip to question 53 Preparation to leave Work/College
: 35. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 36. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours .
: 37. 10- 2. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #2 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 38. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-2, is under 2 hours .
Skip to question 53 Preparation to leave Work/College
: 39. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 40. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours .
 
41 . 10- 2. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #2 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 42. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-2, is under 2 hours .
: 43. 10- 3. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #3 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 44. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-3, is under 2 hours .
Skip to question 53 Preparation to leave Work/College
: 45. 10-1. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 46. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-1, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-1, is under 2 hours .
: 47. 10- 2. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #2 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 48. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-2, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-2, is under 2 hours .
: 49. 10- 3. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #3 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 50. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-3, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-3, is under 2 hours .
 
51 . 10- 4. Approximately how much time would it take Commuter #4 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home?
Mark only one oval.
C) 5 MINUTES OR LESS C) 6-10 MINUTES C) 11-15 MINUTES C) 16-20 MINUTES C) 21-25 MINUTES C) 26-30 MINUTES C) 31-35 MINUTES C) 36-40 MINUTES C) 41-45 MINUTES C) 46-50 MINUTES C) 51-55 MINUTES C) 56-1        HOUR C) OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31            MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS C) OVER 2 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 52. If Over 2 Hours for Question 10-4, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 10-4, is under 2 hours .
Skip to question 53 Additional Questions
: 53. 11. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area?
Mark only one oval.
c=) LESS THAN 15 MINUTES c=) 15-30 MINUTES c=) 31-45 MINUTES c=) 46 MINUTES -1        HOUR c=) 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES c=) 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES c=) 1 HOUR 31      MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES c=) 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS c=) 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES c=) 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 2 HOURS 31        MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES c=) 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS c=) 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES c=) 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 3 HOURS 31        MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES c=) 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS c=) 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES c=) 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=) 4 HOURS 31        MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES c=) 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS c=)    5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES c=)    5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS c=) OVER 6 HOURS c=) WILL NOT EVACUATE c=) DECLINE TO STATE
: 54. If Over 6 Hours for Question 11, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 11, is under 6 hours.
: 55. 12. If there are 6-8 inches of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8 inches of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable.
Mark only one oval.
C) LESS THAN 15 MINUTES C) 15-30 MINUTES C) 31-45 MINUTES C) 46 MINUTES -        1 HOUR C) 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES C) 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES C) 1 HOUR 31        MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES C) 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS C) 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES C) 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES C) 2 HOURS 31        MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES C) 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS C) NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT C) OVER 3 HOURS C) DECLINE TO STATE
: 56. If Over 3 Hours for Question 12, Specify Here leave blank if your answer for Question 12, is under 3 hours.
: 57. 13. Please specify the number of people in your household who require Functional or Transportation needs in an evacuation:
Mark only one oval per row.
More 0          1        2      3        4 than 4 Bus            0          0        0        0        0        0 Medical BusNan        0          0        0        0        0        0 Wheelchair Accessible      0          0        0        0        0        0 Vehicle Ambulance      0          0        0        0        0        0 Other          0          0        0        0        0        0
: 58. Specify "Other" Transportation Need Below
: 59. 14. Please choose one of the following:
Mark only one oval.
(=:>  I would await the return of household members to evacuate together.
(=:>  I would evacuate independently and meet other household members later.
(=:> Decline to State
: 60. 15A. Emergency officials advise you to shelter- in- place in an emergency because you are not in the area of risk. Would you:
Mark only one oval.
(=:> SHELTER-IN-PLACE
(=:> EVACUATE
(=:> DECLINE TO STATE
 
61 . 15B. Emergency officials advise you to shelter- in- place now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you:
Mark only one oval.
C ) SHELTER-IN-PLACE C ) EVACUATE C ) DECLINE TO STATE
: 62. 15C. Emergency officials advise you to evacuate due to an emergency. Where would you evacuate to?
Mark only one oval.
C ) A RELATIVE'S OR FRIEND'S HOME C ) EVACUATION ASSEMBLY CENTER C ) A HOTEL, MOTEL OR CAMPGROUND C ) A SECOND/SEASONAL HOME C ) WOULD NOT EVACUATE C ) DON'T KNOW C ) OTHER (Specify Below)
C ) DECLINE TO STATE
: 63. Fill in OTHER answers for question 15C Pet Questions
: 64. 16A. Do you have any pet(s) and/or animal(s)?
Mark only one oval.
C ) YES C ) NO C ) DECLINE TO STATE Skip to question 69
 
Pet Questions
: 65. 16B. What type of pet(s) and/or animal(s) do you have?
Check all that apply.
DOG 0 cAT BIRD 0  REPTILE 0  HORSE FISH 0  CHICKEN GOAT PIG 0  OTHER SMALL PETS/ ANIMALS (Specify Below) 0  OTHER LARGE PETS/ ANIMALS (Specify Below)
D Other:
66.
Mark only one oval.
C) DECLINE TO STATE Pet Questions
: 67. 16C. What would you do with your pet(s) and/or animal(s) if you had to evacuate?
Mark only one oval.
C) TAKE PET WITH    ME TO A SHELTER C) TAKE PET WITH    ME SOMEWHERE ELSE C) LEAVE PET AT HOME C) DECLINE TO STATE Pet Questions
: 68. 16D. Do you have sufficient room in your vehicle(s) to evacuate with your pet(s) and/or animal(s)?
Mark only one oval.
C ) YES C ) NO C ) WILL USE A TRAILER C ) DECLINE TO STATE C ) Other:
Emergency Communications
: 69. 17A. At your place of residence, how reliable is your cell phone signal?
Mark only one oval.
C ) VERY RELIABLE TO RECEIVE TEXTS AND PHONE CALLS C ) RELIABLE FOR TEXT MESSAGES ONLY C ) I DO NOT ALWAYS RECEIVE CELL COMMUNICATIONS AT MY RESIDENCE C ) I DO NOT HAVE CELL SERVICE AT MY RESIDENCE
: 70. 178. Emergency management officials in your state may send text messages, similar to AMBER Alerts, with emergency directions for the public during a radiological emergency at the Surry Power Station. How likely would you be to take action on these directions, if you received the message?
Mark only one oval.
C ) HIGHLY LIKELY C ) LIKELY C ) NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY C ) UNLIKELY C ) HIGHLY UNLIKELY
: 71. 17C. Which of the following emergency communication methods do you think is most likely to alert you at your residence?
Check all that apply.
0    A SIREN SOUNDING NEAR YOUR HOME 0    A TEXT MESSAGE FROM EMERGENCY OFFICIALS 0    ALERT BROADCAST ON RADIO 0    ALERT BROADCAST ON TV 0    INFORMATION ON TWITTER OR FACEBOOK 0    PHONE CALL/TEXT MESSAGE FROM FAMILY, FRIEND, OR NEIGHBOR 0    OTHER
: 72. Fill in OTHER answers for question 17C This content is neither created nor endorsed by Google.
Google Forms
 
APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan
 
G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1 indicates that the existing Traffic Control Points (TCPs) and Access Control Points (ACPs) identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling. The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by each city/county.
These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly. An analysis of the TCP and ACP locations was performed, and it was determined to model the ETE simulations with the existing TCPs and ACPs that were provided in the approved city/county plans, with no additional TCPs or ACPs needed.
G.1    Manual Traffic Control The TCPs and ACPs are forms of manual traffic control (MTC). As discussed in Section 9, MTC at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a TCP (or ACP), the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system, in accordance with Section 3.3 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. MTC at existing actuated traffic signalized intersections were essentially left alone.
Table K-1 provides the number of nodes with each control type. If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP or ACP, the control type is indicated as "TCP/ACP" in Table K-1. These MTC points, as shown in the city/county emergency plans, are mapped in Figure G-1. No additional locations for MTC are suggested in this study.
It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 120 minutes ofthe ATE to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.11, external traffic was considered on one route which traverses the study area - lnterstate-64 (1-
: 64) - in this analysis. The generation of the external trips on this route ceased at 2 hours after the ATE in the simulation due to the activation of the ACPs.
G.2    Analysis of Key TCP/ACP Locations As discussed in Section 5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, MTC at intersections could benefit from the ETE analysis. The MTC locations contained within the traffic management plans (TMP) were analyzed to determine key locations where MTC would be most useful and can be readily implemented. As previously mentioned, signalized intersections that were actuated based on field data collection were essentially left as actuated traffic signals in the model, with modifications to green time allocation as needed. Other controlled intersections (pre-timed signals, stop signs and yield signs) were changed to actuated traffic signals to represent the MTC that would be implemented according to the TMP.
Nearly all of the TCPs/ACPs identified in the TMP that are not actuated traffic signals are located at intersections with stop control. Table G-1 shows a list of the controlled intersections that were identified as MTC points in the TMP that were not previously actuated signals, Surry Power Station                            G-1                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
including the type of control that currently exists at each location. To determine the impact of MTC at these locations, a summer, midweek, midday, with good weather (Scenario 1) evacuation of the 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region and the entire EPZ (Regions ROl, R02, R03) were simulated wherein these intersections were left as is (without MTC). The results were compared to the results presented in Section 7. As shown in Table G-2, the ETE did not change when MTC was not present at these intersections. The remaining TCPs and ACPs at controlled intersections were left as actuated signals in the model and, therefore, had no impact on ETE.
The reason MTC has no impact at this site is twofold:
: 1. The last of the congestion in the EPZ (See Section 7.3) is at ramps to 1-64 and on the main thoroughfare of 1-64. These are capacity constraints that cannot be improved by MTC.
: 2. Most of the intersections in the study area are congested in competing directions (east/west versus north/south). MTC provides little benefit in a highly congested environment such as this as the competing movements both need green time to traverse the intersection.
Although there is no reduction in ETE when MTC is implemented, traffic and access control can be beneficial in the reduction of localized traffic congestion and driver confusion and can be extremely helpful for fixed point surveillance, amongst other things. Should there be a shortfall of personnel to staff the TCPs or ACPs, the list of locations provided in Table G-1 could be considered as priority locations when implementing the TMP as the existing control at these intersections is not as efficient as an actuated signal or MTC.
Surry Power Station                              G-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Table G-1. List of Key Manual Traffic Control Locations Node          Previous Control TCP/ACP Name Number      (Prior to being a TCP/ACP}
Barricade Rt. 645 (Airport Road) at Rt. F 137 (East                              80                Stop Rochambeau Drive).
Centerville Road (Rt 614) & Jolly Pond Road (Rt 633)                            149                Stop Centerville Road (Rt 614) & Jolly Pond Road (Rt 611)                            134          Yield with conflict Depue Drive (Rt 615) & Ashbury Road (Rt 322)                                    184                Stop Capitol Landing Road and Route 143                                              210                Stop Colonial Parkway at Hubbard Lane (Route 716)                                    241                Stop Intersection of Penniman Road and Jackson Drive                                248                Stop John Tyler Highway (Rt 5) & Greensprings Road (Rt 614)                          268                Stop Monticello Avenue (Rt 5000) & Greenspring Plantation Drive                      276                Stop Jamestown Road (Rt 31) & Neck-o-land Road (Rt 682)                              279                Stop Colonial Parkway at Route 199                                                  305                Stop Pocahontas Trail (Rt 60) @ Carters Grove                                        421                Stop Ft. Eustis Boulevard and Richneck Road (in York County)                        535                Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 617 (Bacons Castle                    930                Stop Trail)
Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 650 (Hog Island Road)                  941                Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 627 (Mantura Road)                    942                Stop Route 10 (Old Stage Highway)/676 (Fort Huger Drive)                            945                Stop Route 621 (Burwells Bay Road)/Route 626 (Mill Swamp Road)                      976                Stop Route 621 (Burwells Bay Road)/Route 627 (Moonlight Road)                        981                Stop Route 677 (Wrenns Mill Road)/ Route 10 (Old Stage Highway)                    1014                Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail West) and Route 618 (Hollybush Road)                  1035                Stop Route 31 (Rolfe Highway) and Route 637 (Pleasant Point Road)                  1255                Stop Route 10 (Colonial Trail East) and Route 634 (Alliance Road)                  1262                Stop Route 622 (Runnymede Road) and Route 616 (Golden Hill                          1282                Stop Road)
Route 626 (Beechland Road) and Route 617 (White Marsh                          1314                Stop Road)
Route 686 (Tylers Beach Road)/676 (Fort Huger Drive)                            1844                Stop Richmond Road (Rt 60) & Forge Road (Rt 610)                                    1953                Stop Surry Power Station                                  G-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                            Rev.O
 
Table G-2. ETE with No MTC Scenario 1 Region            90th Percentile ETE                100th Percentile ETE Base      NoMTC    Difference    Base    NoMTC        Difference R0l (2-Mile)    2:30      2:30        0:00        4:50      4:50          0:00 R02 (5-Mile)    2:45      2:45        0:00        4:50      4:50          0:00 R03 (Full EPZ)  3:55      3:55        0:00        6:05      6:05          0:00 Surry Power Station                        G-4                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                  Rev.O
 
SPS 0    Traffic Control Point and Access Control Point endrOn PAZ
                                                                -'\:                                                                  /
Shadow Region Date 7/:!_,1/202~        1
              '--  _., 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings    J~~?:~~~~~~!~~:,~~1i~i~n;s 202
                                                    ~  w~ ensus.gov ~    -..:._
Figure G-1. Traffic Control Points and Access Control Points for the SPS Study Area Surry Power Station                                                                        G-5                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
APPENDIX H Evacuation Regions
 
H  EVACUATION REGIONS This appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-1) and maps of all Evacuation Regions (Figure H-1 through Figure H-49). The percentages presented in Table H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 7 of Section 2.2 and shown in Figure 2-1.
Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20% of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
Surry Power Station                            H-1                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                  Rev.O
 
Table H-1. Percent of PAZ Population Evacuating for Each Region Region        Description ROl        2-Mile Region ROZ        5-Mile Region        N/A R03            Full EPZ          N/A Region  Wind Direction From:
N/A  WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N 237-11 R04          NNE, NE          12-56 ROS            ENE, E        57 -101 R06              ESE          102 -123 R07              SE          124-146 ROS              SSE          147-168 R09            s,ssw          169-213 RlO              SW          214 - 236
                                                                                                                                      *on Action Zone (PAZ)
Region  Wind Direction From:  Degrees                                                                                                  15      16. 17    .
18A  ::
18B  :
18C  :1 18D  **
19A  *:
19B 20A I*  1:
20B 21  22A 22B: 23  24 I Rll I R12 I R13 N
NNE NE 349-11 I
I------    ---                          -                                                                                                      --          -
I R14              ENE                  I I RlS I R16 I R17 E
ESE                  I l!!'.!J!! -
SE I RlS SSE          147-168 Ill 19 s          169 -191 Ill 0 SSW          192-213 I RZl SW          214 -236 I R22 237 -258 WSW I R23 I R24 I RZS lmlll R26 w
WNW NW NNW 259 -281 282 -303 304 -326 327-348 PAZ is not in the plume, but ii is surrounded by other PAZ(s) that are evacuating Surry Power Station                                                                                                      H-2                                                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                                                                                    Rev. O
 
Region    Wind Direction From:  Degrees                                          15    16    17 18D 19A 19B 20A 20B                  24 R27                N          349-11                                        20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%                  20%
R28              NNE          12- 33                                        20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%                  20%
R29                NE            34-56                                        20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R30              ENE          57-78                                          20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R31                            79 -101                                        20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R32              ESE          102 - 123                    20% 20%          20%    20%
R33                SE          124 -146                      20% 20%          20%    20%
R34            SSE, S        147 - 191                    20% 20%
R35              SSW          192 - 213                    20% 20%
R36              SW          214- 236  20% 20%            20% 20%
R37              WSW          237 - 258 20% 20%            20% 20%                                                                20%
R38                w          259 - 281 20% 20%                                                                                    20%
R39            WNW            282-303  20% 20%                                                                                    20%
R40              NW          304-326  20% 20%                                                                                    20%
R41              NNW          327 - 348 20% 20%                                                                                    20%
Region    Wind Direction From:  Degrees    1  2                                                18D 19A 19B 20A 20B                  24 R42          5-Mile Region        N/A    20% 20%                                                20% 20% 20% 20% 20%                  20%
N/A    WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW, N  237-11                                    Refer to Region R0l R43            NNE, NE          12-S6    20% 20%            20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
R44            ENE, E          57 -101  20% 20%            20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
R45              ESE          102 -123  20% 20%            20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
R46                SE          124 -146  20% 20%            20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
R47              SSE          147 - 168 20% 20%            20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
R48            s,ssw          169-213  20% 20% 20% 20%    20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
R49              SW          214-236  20% 20% 20% 20%    20% 20% 20% 20%  20%    20%  20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%  20%        20% 20%
Surry Power Station                                        H-3                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-1. Region ROl Surry Power Station                                                    H-4          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-2. Region R02 Surry Power Station                                                    H-5          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-3. Region R03 Surry Power Station                                                    H-6          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-4. Region R04 Surry Power Station                                                    H-7          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-5. Region ROS Surry Power Station                                                    H-8          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-6. Region R06 Surry Power Station                                                    H-9          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-7. Region R07 Surry Power Station                                                  H-10          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-8. Region ROS Surry Power Station                                                  H-11          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-9. Region R09 Surry Power Station                                                  H-12          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-10. Region RlO Surry Power Station                                                  H-13          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-11. Region Rll Surry Power Station                                                  H-14          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-12. Region R12 Surry Power Station                                                    H-15          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-13. Region R13 Surry Power Station                                                  H-16          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-14. Region R14 Surry Power Station                                                  H-17          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-15. Region RlS Surry Power Station                                                  H-18          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-16. Region R16 Surry Power Station                                                  H-19          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-17. Region R17 Surry Power Station                                                    H-20          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-18. Region R18 Surry Power Station                                                  H-21          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-19. Region R19 Surry Power Station                                                    H-22          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-20. Region R20 Surry Power Station                                                    H-23          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-21. Region R21 Surry Power Station                                                  H-24          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-22. Region R22 Surry Power Station                                                    H-25          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-23. Region R23 Surry Power Station                                                    H-26          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-24. Region R24 Surry Power Station                                                    H-27          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-25. Region R25 Surry Power Station                                                    H-28          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-26. Region R26 Surry Power Station                                                    H-29          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-27. Region R27 Surry Power Station                                                    H-30          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-28. Region R28 Surry Power Station                                                    H-31          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-29. Region R29 Surry Power Station                                                    H-32          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-30. Region R30 Surry Power Station                                                    H-33          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-31. Region R31 Surry Power Station                                                  H-34          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-32. Region R32 Surry Power Station                                                    H-35          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-33. Region R33 Surry Power Station                                                    H-36          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-34. Region R34 Surry Power Station                                                    H-37          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-35. Region R35 Surry Power Station                                                  H-38          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-36. Region R36 Surry Power Station                                                    H-39          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-37. Region R37 Surry Power Station                                                    H-40          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-38. Region R38 Surry Power Station                                                    H-41          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-39. Region R39 Surry Power Station                                                    H-42          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-40. Region R40 Surry Power Station                                                    H-43          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~    Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-41. Region R41 Surry Power Station                                                  H-44          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-42. Region R42 Surry Power Station                                                      H-45          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-43. Region R43 Surry Power Station                                                      H-46          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-44. Region R44 Surry Power Station                                                      H-47          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-45. Region R45 Surry Power Station                                                      H-48          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-46. Region R46 Surry Power Station                                                      H-49          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-47. Region R47 Surry Power Station                                                      H-50          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-48. Region R48 Surry Power Station                                                      H-51          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
S II r ry County Legend Gl SPS PAZ
                    ~ Evacuate
                    ~    Shelter, then Evacuate
                  '- __, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Date:6/13/2022
                  - - Wind Sector Boundary www.census.gov Figure H-49. Region R49 Surry Power Station                                                      H-52          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                              Rev. O
 
APPENDIXJ Representative Inputs to and Outputs from the DYNEV II System
 
J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM This appendix presents data input to and output from the DYNEV II System.
Table J-1 provides source (vehicle loading) and destination information for several roadway segments (links) in the analysis network. In total, there are 604 source links (origins) in the model. The source links are shown as centroid points in Figure J-1. On average, vehicles travel a straight-line distance of 5.18 miles to exit the study area.
Table J-2 provides network-wide statistics (average travel time, average delay time 1, average speed and number of vehicles) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) for each scenario. Rain/light snow scenarios (Scenarios 2, 4, 7, and 10) and heavy snow scenarios (Scenarios 8 and 11), exhibit slower average speeds and longer average travel times compared to good weather scenarios. As expected, when comparing Scenario 13 (special event) and Scenario 3, the additional vehicles introduced by the special event reduces the network-wide average speed and increases the network-wide average travel time due to the increased traffic congestion. When comparing Scenario 14 (roadway closure) and Scenario 1, the single lane closure on 1-64 westbound decreases the network-wide average speed and increases the network-wide average travel time and delay, as expected.
Table J-3 provides statistics (average speed and travel time) for the major evacuation routes -
lnterstate-64, US-60, and SR-5 westbound - for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. As shown in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8, there is significant traffic congestion in the EPZ north of the James River for the duration of the evacuation. The average speeds for US-60 in both directions, 1-64 westbound, and SR 5 westbound are very slow (travel times are very long) for the first 4 hours of the evacuation. Traffic dissipates after the 4 th hour and travel speeds increase significantly (travel times decrease significantly). Traffic congestion on 1-64 eastbound dissipates after the 2nd hour of the evacuation and travel speeds increase significantly (travel times decrease significantly).
Table J-4 provides the number of vehicles discharged and the cumulative percent of total vehicles discharged for each link exiting the analysis network, for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. Refer to the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each link. As expected, the highest capacity roadways (1-64 and 1-664) in the network service the highest percentage (47% total) of evacuating vehicles.
Figure J-2 through Figure J-15 plot the trip generation time versus the ETE for each of the 14 Scenarios considered. The distance between the trip generation and ETE curves is the travel time. Plots of trip generation time versus ETE are indicative of the level of traffic congestion during evacuation. For low population density sites, the curves are close together, indicating short travel times and minimal traffic congestion. For higher population density sites, the curves are farther apart indicating longer travel times and the presence of traffic congestion. As seen in Figure J-2 through Figure J-15, the curves are significantly separated due to the presence of traffic congestion within the EPZ, which was discussed in detail in Section 7.3.
1 Computed as the difference of the average travel time and the average ideal travel time under free flow conditions.
Surry Power Station                                            J-1                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                  Rev.O
 
Table J-1. Sample Simulation Model Input Vehicles Entering Link        Upstream Downstream        Network      Directional Destination    Destination Number          Node      Node        on this Link    Preference    Nodes        Capacity 8041          1,700 1526          1049      1262            376            w        8042          1,700 8078          1,700 8007          4,500 929            587      596              175              E        8009          4,500 8763          3,800 8007          4,500 865            540      539              575              E        8009          4,500 8763          3,800 8748          2,850 2403          1783      1225            678              N        8029          4,500 8564          3,800 8391          2,850 545            337        230              33              N        8763          3,800 8748          2,850 8101          1,700 1649          1150        125            189              N        8029          4,500 8564          3,800 639            393      388              134            NE        8391          2,850 8007          4,500 1126            735      736              55              E        8009          4,500 8763          3,800 8007          4,500 1331            900      1511            169            SE        8009          4,500 8763          3,800 8005          3,800 1922          1387      692              81            SE        8006          2,850 8007          4,500 Surry Power Station                            J-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                    Rev.O
 
Table J-2. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03)
Scenario                          1          2            3          4          5          6          7 Network-Wide Average 5.6        6.5          5.1        5.8        5.9        5.5        6.5 Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 4.2        5.1          3.7        4.3        4.5        4.0        5.1 Delay Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 10.7      9.2          11.8      10.4        10.2      11.0        9.2 Speed (mph)
Total Vehicles 158,276  159,051      140,832  141,336      137,176    157,663    157,995 Exiting Network Scenario                          8          9            10        11          12        13          14 Network-Wide Average 6.9        4.6          5.3        5.9        4.7        5.3        6.1 Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 5.4        3.2          3.9        4.5        3.3        3.9        4.7 Delay Time (Min/Veh-Mi)
Network-Wide Average 8.8      12.9          11.4      10.2        12.7      11.3        9.8 Speed (mph)
Total Vehicles 157,872  133,203      133,810  133,674      124,304    147,304    158,449 Exiting Network Surry Power Station                                  J-3                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                Rev. O
 
Table J-3. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1)
Elapsed Time (hours) 1                2                3                4                5                6                  7                  8 Travel            Travel            Travel            Travel            Travel            Travel            Travel            Travel Length    Speed    Time    Speed    Time    Speed    Time  Speed      Time  Speed    Time    Speed    Time    Speed    Time    Speed    Time Route          (miles)  (mph)    (min)    (mph)    (min)  (mph)    (min)  (mph)      (min)  (mph)    (min)    (mph)    (min)    (mph)    (min)    (mph)    (min)
US 60 East          5.3      11.2      28.1      2.0  159.5    4.2      75 .1  27.7      11.4  42.3      7.4      42.3    7.4      42 .3    7.4      42 .3    7.4 US60 West          4.4      25 .0    10.6    4.7      56.3    10.0    26 .7  11.2      23.8  39.8      6.7      39.8    6.7      39.8      6.7      39 .8    6.7 1-64 East        5.1      52.6      5.8      13.3    23 .0  65.6      4.7    64.6        4.7  66.9      4.6      66.9    4.6      66 .9    4.6      66.9      4.6 1-64 West          7.1      26.0      16.5    5.9      72 .9    3.1    136.3    7.5      57.1  42 .2    10.1    63.0    6.8      63 .0    6.8      63 .0    6.8 SR 5 West          4.1      6.8      36.2    6.1      40.6    6.9    35.5    7.1      34.8  22.1      11.2    52.6    4.7      52.6      4.7      52.6      4.7 Surry Power Station                                                      J-4                                                        KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Table J-4. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 Elapsed Time (hours)
Roadway      Network    Upstream    Downstream      1        2        3        4          5        6        7        8      9 Name        Exit Link    Node        Node John Tyler                                          1,009    2,564    4,140      5,838    7,452    8,032    8,032    8,032  8,032 Memorial        225        142          143 Hwy                                              5.8%    5.5%      5.5%      5.7%      5.9%    5.7%      5.4%      5.2%  5.1%
George                                            717    3,322    5,883    8,445      11,006  13,568    14,101    14,101 14,101 Washington 640        391        1562 Memorial                                            4.0%    7.2%    7.9%      8.2%      8.6%    9.6%      9.5%    9.1%  8.9%
Hwy 558    1,228    2,029      3,094    3,641    3,740    3,740    3,740  3,740 Victory Blvd      1124        732          731 3.2%    2.7%    2.7%      3.0%      2.9%      2.7%      2.5%    2.4%  2.4%
Hampton                                            1,448    3,830    6,385    8,951      10,986  11,123    11,123    11,123 11,123 1141        745          748 Hwy                                              8.4%    8.3%      8.5%      8.7%      8.6%      7.9%      7.5%    7.2%  7.0%
40      288      471      553        573      573      573      573    573 us 258        1462      1001        1002 0.2%    0.6%    0.6%      0.5%      0.5%    0.4%      0.4%      0.4%  0.4%
222      518      668      733        746      746      746      746    746 SR 10        1520      1040        1041 1.2%    1.1%    0.9%      0.7%      0.6%    0.5%      0.5%      0.5%  0.5%
99      264      351      390        398      398      398      398    398 SR 610        1522      1042        1294 0.6%    0.6%    0.5%      0.4%      0.3%    0.3%      0.3%      0.3%  0.3%
219      657      918      1,032      1,058    1,058    1,058    1,058  1,058 SR 31        1559      1078        1253 1.3%    1.4%    1.2%      1.0%      0.8%    0.8%      0.7%      0.7%  0.7%
White Marsh                                            142      326      374      396        401      401      401      401    401 1848      1317        1077 Rd                                              0.8%    0.7%    0.5%      0.4%      0.3%    0.3%      0.3%      0.3%  0.3%
Broadwater                                            97      484      724      833        861      861      861      861    861 1849      1318        1319 Rd                                              0.6%    1.0%    1.0%      0.8%      0.7%    0.6%      0.6%      0.6%  0.5%
96      290      343      367        371      371      371      371    371 SR 616        1854      1324        1325 0.6%    0.6%    0.5%      0.4%      0.3%    0.3%      0.3%      0.2%  0.2%
37      348      590      697        725      725      725      725    725 SR 32        2177      1586        1603 0.2%    0.8%    0.8%      0.7%      0.6%    0.5%      0.5%      0.5%  0.5%
8      168      323      389        409      409      409      409    409 us 17        2199      1607        1604 0.1%    0.4%    0.4%      0.4%      0.3%    0.3%      0.3%      0.3%  0.3%
Hampton                                            612    3,491    6,711    9,870      12,395  12,596    12,596    12,596 12,596 Roads Center      2484      1853          763 Pkwy                                              3.5%    7.5%    9.0%      9.6%      9.7%    8.9%      8.5%      8.1%  8.0%
3,343    7,342    11,346    15,383    19,276  22,753    25,962    29,259 30,866 1-64 WB        2610      1958        1198 19.3%    15.8%    15.2%    15.0%      15.1%    16.1%    17.4%    18.8%  19.5%
1,607    4,509    7,232    9,650      12,358  14,611    15,787    16,350 16,545 Richmond Rd      2616      1961        1564 9.3%    9.7%      9.7%      9.4%      9.7%    10.4%    10.6%    10.5%  10.5%
1,249    2,777    4,305      5,708    7,170    8,698    10,226    11,754 12,720 Old Stage Rd      2617      1962        1926 7.2%    6.0%      5.6%      5.7%      5.6%    6.2%      6.6%      7.3%  8.0%
3,442    7,492    11,542    15,592    18,939  19,033    19,033    19,033 19,033 I - 64 EB      2619      1964        1612 19.9%    16.2%    15.4%    15.2%      14.9%    13.5%    12.8%    12.2%  12.0%
2,399    6,464    10,514    14,565    18,614  21,307    22,846    23,980 23,980 1-664 SB        2639      1980        1981 13.8%    13.9%    14.1%    14.2%      14.6%    15.0%    15.3%    15.4%  15.2%
Surry Power Station                                    J-5                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                    Rev.O
 
O;fC~St~r Gl        ,,.,courthouse o1tcest'er Co1tnt
                                                            /      ..
                                                  /
* 1/    23 4*  .,          ***4:
                                                ,      *    *-;;*l *
                                                **,..        1.~.:
SPS
* Source Link Centroid
                --  Link Gl    PAZ t::Sl Shadow Region 2, 5, 10, 15 M ile R.ings Figure J-l
* Netwo rkS ources/Origins Surry power Station                                                    J-6                                  KLD Engmeering,
* P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev. O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good
{Scenario 1)
                                              -    Trip Generation  -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00    0:30  1:00    1:30  2:00    2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00 4:30  5:00  5:30    6:00  6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 1)
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)
                                              -    Trip Generation  -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
  -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)
Surry Power Station                                          J-7                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                    Rev.O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good
{Scenario 3)
                                                -    Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00    0:30    1:00    1:30    2:00    2:30    3:00    3:30    4 :00    4 :30    5:00  5:30    6:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 3)
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)
                                                -    Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
  -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00  0:30    1:00  1:30  2:00  2:30    3:00  3:30  4:00  4:30    5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30  7:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)
Surry Power Station                                            J-8                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                              Rev.O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good
{Scenario 5)
                                              -    Trip Generation  -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00    0:30  1:00  1:30  2:00    2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00  4:30  5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 5)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)
                                              -    Trip Generation  -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
  -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00    0:30  1:00  1:30  2:00    2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00  4 :30 5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 6)
Surry Power Station                                          J-9                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                    Rev.O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow
{Scenario 7)
                                              -    Trip Generation  -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 7)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8)
                                              -    Trip Generation  -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
  -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 8)
Surry Power Station                                          J-10                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                      Rev.O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good
{Scenario 9)
                                                -      Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00    0:30  1:00    1:30    2:00    2:30    3:00  3:30    4 :00    4 :30  5:00  5:30    6:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 9)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 10)
                                                -      Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
  -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00    0:30  1:00    1:30    2:00    2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00    4 :30    5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain/Light Snow (Scenario 10)
Surry Power Station                                            J-11                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                            Rev.O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11)
                                              -    Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4 :30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:00 7:30 8:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Heavy Snow (Scenario 11)
ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)
                                              -    Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
  -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
    ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00  0:30    1:00    1:30  2:00    2:30    3:00  3:30  4 :00 4 :30 5:00  5:30    6:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 12)
Surry Power Station                                          J-12                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                    Rev.O
 
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)
                                            -    Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    ~
0 C
a.,
40%
      ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30  1:00  1:30  2:00    2:30  3:00  3:30    4:00    4:30  5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario 13)
ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)
                                            -    Trip Generation    -    ETE 100%
Ill a.,
u          80%
:ca.,
    > 60%
iii
    -~
    ....0C a.,
40%
      ...ua.,  20%
0.
0%
0:00 0:30  1:00  1:30  2:00  2:30  3:00  3:30  4:00  4:30  5:00  5:30  6:00  6:30  7:00 Elapsed Time (h:mm)
Figure J-15. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)
Surry Power Station                                        J-13                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                      Rev.O
 
APPENDIX K Evacuation Roadway Network
 
K. EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK As discussed in Section 1.3, a link-node analysis network was constructed to model the roadway network within the study area. Figure K-1 provides an overview of the link-node analysis network.
The figure has been divided up into 79 more detailed figures (Figure K-2 through Figure K-80) which show each of the links and nodes in the network.
The analysis network was calibrated using the observations made during the field surveys conducted in February 2021.
Table K-1 summarizes the number of nodes by the type of control (stop sign, yield sign, pre-timed signal, actuated signal, traffic control point and access control point [TCP/ACP], or uncontrolled).
Table K-1. Summary of Nodes by the Type of Control Number of Control Type Nodes Uncontrolled        1,383 Pretimed              0 Actuated            256 Stop                148 TCP/ACP              169 Yield                49 Total:      2,005 Surry Power Station                                  K-1                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
Chai/es.City Charles City Co u n t y
                                                                                                                  \
Mathews County) l 5        ,6
                                                              .,,l Legend
                **  SPS Node
              - - Link Index Grid PAZ Shadow Region
              '- __, 2, 5, 10, Da~
Isj of 15 Mile Rings      Copyrig t:  I ataandMaps20                      J~ ht KLD ngineering, --m11rnon                        'Gou ly www.census.gov Figure K-1. SPS Link-Node Analysis Network Surry Power Station                                                                        K-2                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
legend                                                                          SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node GJ e;:::;:J PAZ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                  Water                                                                            Grid 1
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 1 Surry Power Station                                                K-3                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
                                                      .lllilllitf:$,
City, C*ut~H; SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node GJ      PAZ e;:::;:J Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                  Water                                                                            Grid 2
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 2 Surry Power Station                                                  K-4                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                          SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 3
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 3 Surry Power Station                                                K-5                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
I ; ,9.36'-
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                                                                                                    ~~a,JIJ19371938=--
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                                  Grid 4
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5        eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid .,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles                  Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 4 Surry Power Station                                                K-6                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                              Rev.O
 
          -~*
193-l
            .J!
          .,l llp2 i
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                                                                          .lo:*111:!t Cit:,
C'@4UUJ' SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                                Grid 5
  -+- Railroad              Park                                              0                    0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                        Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-6. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 5 Surry Power Station                                                K-7                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                              Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 6
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-7. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 6 Surry Power Station                                                K-8                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 7
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 7 Surry Power Station                                                K-9                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                              Grid 8
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                              0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 8 Surry Power Station                                                K-10                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                              Grid9
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                              0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-10. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 9 Surry Power Station                                                K-11                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 10
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 10 Surry Power Station                                              K-12                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 11
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-12. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 11 Surry Power Station                                              K-13                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 12
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-13. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 12 Surry Power Station                                              K-14                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 13
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-14. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 13 Surry Power Station                                              K-15                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
PAZ:20B Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 14
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-15. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 14 Surry Power Station                                              K-16                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
6l1tu1e:11,5;t11,t, c,uutty SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                              Grid 15
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                    l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                        Mile            Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-16. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 15 Surry Power Station                                              K-17                                  KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                            Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 16
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  2    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-17. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 16 Surry Power Station                                              K-18                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
PAZ:23 SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 17
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-18. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 17 Surry Power Station                                              K-19                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 18
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-19. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 18 Surry Power Station                                              K-20                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 19
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 19 Surry Power Station                                              K-21                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 20
  -+- Ra!lroa:d      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-21. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 20 Surry Power Station                                              K-22                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 21
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 21 Surry Power Station                                              K-23                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 22
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 22 Surry Power Station                                              K-24                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 23
  -+- Ra!lroa:d      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-24. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 23 Surry Power Station                                              K-25                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 24
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-25. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 24 Surry Power Station                                              K-26                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
                                                                                                  , ** ,u CU11 C4tfUtt1'              y'lo.
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                              Grid 25
  -+- Ra!lroa:d      M    Park                                            0                  0.5    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles                Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-26. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 25 Surry Power Station                                              K-27                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 26
  -+- Ra!lroa:d      M Park                                                0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-27. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 26 Surry Power Station                                              K-28                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 27
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-28. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 27 Surry Power Station                                              K-29                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 28
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-29. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 28 Surry Power Station                                              K-30                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
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                                                                                                        ~\
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SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                                          Grid 29
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                                0                  0.25            eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                                    Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 29 Surry Power Station                                                  K-31                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 30
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-31. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 30 Surry Power Station                                              K-32                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 31
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 31 Surry Power Station                                              K-33                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 32
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-33. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 32 Surry Power Station                                              K-34                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
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C'@fUtly SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 33
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-34. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 33 Surry Power Station                                              K-35                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 34
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-35. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 34 Surry Power Station                                              K-36                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 35
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-36. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 35 Surry Power Station                                              K-37                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 36
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-37. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 36 Surry Power Station                                              K-38                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate iJ{ SPS          ~ PAZ                                                    Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
* Node        ~ Shadow Region
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 37
  -+- Railroad            Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-38. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 37 Surry Power Station                                              K-39                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
                                                                                                        \
                                                                                                          \
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 38
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-39. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 38 Surry Power Station                                              K-40                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
PAZ:18D SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 39
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-40. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 39 Surry Power Station                                              K-41                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 40
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-41. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 40 Surry Power Station                                              K-42                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 41
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-42. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 41 Surry Power Station                                              K-43                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 42
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-43. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 42 Surry Power Station                                              K-44                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 43
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-44. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 43 Surry Power Station                                              K-45                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 44
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-45. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 44 Surry Power Station                                              K-46                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 45
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-46. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 45 Surry Power Station                                              K-47                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 46
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-47. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 46 Surry Power Station                                              K-48                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 47
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-48. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 47 Surry Power Station                                              K-49                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 48
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-49. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 48 Surry Power Station                                              K-50                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 49
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-50. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 49 Surry Power Station                                              K-51                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid SO
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-51. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 50 Surry Power Station                                              K-52                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 51
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-52. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 51 Surry Power Station                                              K-53                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 52
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-53. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 52 Surry Power Station                                              K-54                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
                                                                                              -if!
f---"
I SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 53
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-54. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 53 Surry Power Station                                              K-55                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
PAZ:1 SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 54
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-55. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 54 Surry Power Station                                              K-56                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 55
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-56. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 55 Surry Power Station                                              K-57                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 56
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-57. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 56 Surry Power Station                                              K-58                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 57
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-58. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 57 Surry Power Station                                              K-59                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 58
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-59. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 58 Surry Power Station                                              K-60                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 59
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-60. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 59 Surry Power Station                                              K-61                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 60
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-61. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 60 Surry Power Station                                              K-62                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 61
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-62. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 61 Surry Power Station                                              K-63                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 62
  --+- Railroad            Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-63. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 62 Surry Power Station                                              K-64                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 63
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-64. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 63 Surry Power Station                                              K-65                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Ham,:ifori SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 64
  -+- Railroad              Parle                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-65. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 64 Surry Power Station                                              K-66                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev.O
 
                                                                        . SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node GJ  PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link              Water                                                                    Grid 65
  -+- Railroad            Park                                      0                  2    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 lnde,c Grid ,,- -.
Miles Da~~l(lJ)E-rlna Figure K-66. L"mk-Node Analysis Network - Grid 65 Surry Power Station                                      K-67                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 66
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-67. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 66 Surry Power Station                                              K-68                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 67
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-68. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 67 Surry Power Station                                              K-69                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate iJ{ SPS          ~ PAZ                                                    Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
* Node        ~ Shadow Region
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 68
  -+- Railroad            Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-69. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 68 Surry Power Station                                              K-70                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate iJ{ SPS          ~ PAZ                                                    Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
* Node        ~ Shadow Region
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                            Grid 69
  -+- Railroad            Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-70. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 69 Surry Power Station                                              K-71                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 70
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-71. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 70 Surry Power Station                                              K-72                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 71
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-72. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 71 Surry Power Station                                              K-73                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 72
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-73. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 72 Surry Power Station                                              K-74                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 73
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  0.5  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Miles              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-74. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 73 Surry Power Station                                              K-75                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 74
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-75. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 74 Surry Power Station                                              K-76                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
l3ZIJ    ~-t:      /
                                                                                              ~
1318 Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 75
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                      Mile            Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-76. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 75 Surry Power Station                                              K-77                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 76
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                  Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-77. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 76 Surry Power Station                                              K-78                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 77
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-78. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 77 Surry Power Station                                              K-79                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
Legend                                                                        SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node Gl    PAZ
                      ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.., Unk                Water                                                                            Grid 78
  -+- Railroad      M    Park                                            0                  l    eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,. ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                    Mile              Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Figure K-79. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 78 Surry Power Station                                              K-80                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
SPS Evacuation Time Estimate SPS Node t;'.jJ PAZ
                    ~ Shadow Region Link-Node Analysis Network Figures
  -,.. Link                Water                                                                          Grid 79
  -+- Railroad              Park                                            0                  0.25  eopyrtght ESRI Data and Maps 2020 D a l a ~ Ki.DE-rlna lnde,c Grid ,,- ::: 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings                                                      Dotmntg www.ceqsus,eov Miles Figure K-80. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 79 Surry Power Station                                              K-81                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev.O
 
APPENDIX L Protective Action Zone (PAZ) Boundaries
 
L. PAZ BOUNDARIES PAZ 1        Surry County. Consists of the Town of Surry.
PAZ 2        Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the James River; the east by Route 31; the south by Route 10; and the west by Routes 609, 610 and Eastover Drive.
PAZ3        Surry County. Consists ofthe area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east by Route 616; the south by Moores Swamp, Cypress Run and Route 648; and the west by Route 618.
PAZ4        Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the James River; the east by Routes 636 and 634; the south by Route 10; and the west by Route 31.
PAZ5        Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the James River; the east by Routes 633 and 634; the south by Route 10; and the west by Routes 636 and 634.
PAZ6        Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north and east by Route 650; the south by Routes 10 and 634; and the west by Routes 633, 634 and the James River.
PAZ 7        Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east and south by Route 617; and the west by Routes 616, Cypress Run and Mill Swamp.
PAZ8        Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north and east by the James River; the south by Hog Island State Wildlife Management Area; and the west by Route 650 and the James River.
PAZ9        Isle of Wight & Surry Counties. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Hog Island State Wildlife Management Area; the east by the James River; the south by Routes 686, 628 and 10; and the west by Route 650.
PAZ 10      Surry County. Consist of the area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east by Route 627; and the south by the Surry and Isle of Wight County Line.
PAZ 11      Isle of Wight County. Consists of the area bounded on the west by Surry County line, bounded on the east by Route 627 {Moonlight Rd); bounded on the south by Route 626 {Jones Dr./Mill Swamp Rd.).
PAZ 12      Surry County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 10; the east by Lawnes Creek; the south by the Isle of Wight County line; and the west by Route 627.
PAZ 13      Isle of Wight County. Consists of the area: Principally bounded on the north by Route 686 {Tyler's Beach Rd.) and 628 {Lawnes Dr.); bounded on the east by James River; bounded on south by Route 673 {Morgat's Beach Rd.) Rt. 10, 678
{Bethany Church Rd.), 626 {Mill Swamp Rd), bounded on the west by Route 627 {Moonlight Rd.), the Isle of Wight County line and Lawnes Creek.
Additionally, the portion of the Wren n's Mill Neighborhood bounded by Laurel Surry Power Station                              L-1                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Lane and Route 10, and Route F-662 (King's Landing Ln.) from Route 677 to 8464 King's Landing Ln.
PAZ 14      Newport News City. Consists of Joint Base Langley/Eustis.
PAZ 15      Newport News City. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 173; on the east by Jefferson Avenue, Bland Boulevard, CSX Transportation, Sluice Mill Pond, and Deep Creek; on the south by the James River and the mouth of the Warwick River; and on the west by Warwick River/Fort Eustis Shoreline and Lucas Creek.
PAZ 16      Newport News City. Consists of the area bounded on the north and east by the York County Line; on the east by Route 173; on the south by Denbigh Boulevard, Route 173, Lucas Creek, and Warwick River; and on the west by Warwick River/Joint Base Langley/Eustis boundary line and Skiffes Creek.
PAZ 17      York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Route 238 and York River, bounded on the east by Route 17, bounded on the south by Route 636, (Richneck Road), bounded on the south/west by Newport News City line.
PAZ 18A      James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Penniman Road, on the east by Oak Drive and Government Road, and on the south and west by Williamsburg City line.
PAZ 18B      James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by James City County line, on the east by Busch Gardens' eastern edge and Busch Cree, on the south by James River, and on the west by the Colonial Parkway.
PAZ 18C      James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Boundary Road West, on the east by the James City County line, on the south by James River, Carters Grove and US 60, and on the west by Busch Gardens' eastern edge and Busch Creek.
PAZ 180      James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Carters Grove and US 60, on the east by Skiffes Creek Reservoir, on the south by Skiffes Creek, and on the west by James River.
PAZ 19A      York County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Colonial Parkway, bounded on the east by Kings Creek, bounded on the south by the York County line, and bounded on the west by Government Road, Penniman Road and the York County line.
PAZ 19B      York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Colonial Parkway, bounded on the east by York River, bounded on the south by Route 238, the Newport News City line and Route 64, and bounded on the west by King Creek.
PAZ 20A      York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Route 645, bounded on the east by Interstate 64 and Route 143, and bounded on the south and west by the York County line.
PAZ 20B      York County. Consists of an area bounded on the north by Camp Peary and Queens Creek, bounded on the east by the York River, bounded on the south by the Colonial Parkway, and bounded on the west by the York County line and Route 143.
Surry Power Station                              L-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
PAZ 21      Williamsburg. Consists of the City of Williamsburg.
PAZ 22A      James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by the Powhatan Creek, on the east by Lake Powell and Mill Creek, and on the south and west by the James River.
PAZ 22B      James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Route 199, on the east and south by Colonial Parkway, and on the west by Mill Creek, Lake Powell and Route 31.
PAZ23        James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Centerville Road {Rt. 614), Longhill Road {Rt. 612) and Old Towne Road (Rt. 658), on the east by the Williamsburg City line, on the south by Jamestown Road {Rt. 31) and Route 680, and on the west by Centerville Road {Rt. 614).
PAZ24        James City County. Consists of the area bounded on the north by Bush Neck Road {Rt. 633), on the east by Centerville Road {Rt. 614), on the south by Route 680 and James River, and on the west by Chickahominy River.
Surry Power Station                              L-3                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
APPENDIX M Evacuation Sensitivity Studies
 
M. EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES This appendix presents the results of a series of sensitivity analyses. These analyses are designed to identify the sensitivity of the ETE to changes in some base evacuation conditions.
M.1 Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Time A sensitivity study was performed to determine whether changes in the estimated trip generation time have an effect on the ETE for the entire EPZ. Specifically, if the tail of the mobilization distribution were truncated (i.e., if those who responded most slowly to the ATE, could be persuaded to respond more rapidly), or if the tail were elongated (i.e., spreading out the departure of evacuees to limit the demand during peak times) how would the ETE be affected? The case considered was Scenario 1, Region 3; a summer, midweek, midday, with good weather evacuation of the entire EPZ. Table M-1 presents the results of this study.
If evacuees mobilize one hour quicker, the goth percentile ETE remains the same and the 100th percentile ETE increases by 5 minutes. While the increase in 100th percentile ETE when mobilizing more quickly may seem counterintuitive, in a highly congested environment such as the SPS EPZ, this is to be expected. As discussed in Section 7.6, compressing the mobilization time can cause a spike or surge in demand during peak times which may exacerbate traffic congestion and prolong ETE.
If evacuees mobilize one hour slower, the goth percentile ETE is increased by 5 minutes, and the 100th percentile ETE remains the same.
As discussed in Section 7.3, traffic congestion within the full EPZ clears (i.e., all highways within the EPZ operate at Level of Service A) at 5 hours and 55 minutes after the ATE. If the time to mobilize is less than 5 hours and 55 minutes, the 100th percentile ETE is dictated by congestion.
See Table M-1.
M.2 Effect of Changes in the Number of People in the Shadow Region Who Relocate A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE of changes in the percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region. The case considered was Scenario 1, Region 3; a summer, midweek, midday, with good weather evacuation of the entire EPZ. The movement of people in the Shadow Region has the potential to impede vehicles evacuating from an Evacuation Region within the EPZ. Refer to Sections 3.2 and 7.1 for additional information on population within the Shadow Region.
Table M-2 presents the ETE for each of the cases considered. The results show that eliminating
{0%) shadow evacuation decreases the goth and 100th percentile ETE by 5 minutes and 15 minutes, respectively. Doubling {40%), tripling {60%), and quadrupling {80%) the shadow evacuation percentage increases the goth percentile ETE by 10 minutes, 25 minutes and 50 minutes, respectively - significant changes. A full evacuation {100%) of the Shadow Region increases goth Surry Power Station                              M-1                                KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                          Rev.O
 
percentile ETE by 1 hour and 10 minutes, also a significant change. Shadow evacuation also has a significant impact on the 100th percentile ETE. Doubling (40%), tripling (60%), and quadrupling (80%) the shadow evacuation percentage and full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases the 100th percentile ETE by 20 minutes, 45 minutes, 1 hour and 15 minutes, and 1 hour and 45 minutes, respectively - significant changes.
Note the demographic survey results presented in Appendix F indicate that about 15% of households would elect to evacuate if advised to shelter, which is slightly lower than the base assumption of 20% non-compliance suggested in the NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1. A sensitivity study was run using 15% shadow evacuation and the goth and 100th percentile ETE remained the same.
The more people who voluntarily evacuate from beyond the EPZ boundary, the more the traffic congestion at the bottlenecks north and south of the EPZ (see Section 7.3) is exacerbated, which in turn prolongs ETE.
M.3 Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE of changes in the resident population within the study area (EPZ plus Shadow Region). As population in the study area changes over time, the time required to evacuate the public may increase, decrease, or remain the same. Since the ETE is related to the demand to capacity ratio present within the study area, changes in population will cause the demand side of the equation to change and could impact ETE.
As per the NRC's response to the Emergency Planning Frequently Asked Question (EPFAQ) 2013-001, the ETE population sensitivity study must be conducted to determine what percentage increase in permanent resident population causes an increase in the go th percentile ETE of 25% or 30 minutes, whichever is less. The sensitivity study must use the scenario with the longest goth percentile ETE (excluding the roadway impact scenario and the special event scenario if it is a one day per year special event).
Thus, the sensitivity study was conducted using the following planning assumptions:
: 1. The percent change in the permanent resident population within the study area was increased by up to 20%. Changes in population were applied to permanent residents only (as per federal guidance), in both the EPZ and in the Shadow Region.
: 2. The transportation infrastructure (as presented in Appendix K) remained fixed; the presence of future proposed roadway changes and/or highway capacity improvements was not considered.
: 3. The study was performed for the 2-Mile Region (R0l), the 5-Mile Region (R02), and the full EPZ (R03).
: 4. The scenario (excluding roadway impact and special event) with yielded the longest goth percentile ETE values was selected as the case to be considered in this sensitivity study (Scenario 8 - winter, midweek, midday, with heavy snow).
Table M-3 presents the results of the sensitivity study. Section IV of Appendix E to 10 CFR Part 50, and NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, Section 5.4, require licensees to provide an updated ETE Surry Power Station                              M-2                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
analysis to the NRC between decennial Censuses when a population increase within the EPZ causes the longest 90th percentile ETE values (for the 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region or entire EPZ) to increase by 25% or 30 minutes, whichever is less. All base ETE values are at least 3 hours and 25 minutes; thus, 25% of these base ETE is always greater than 30 minutes. Therefore, 30 minutes is the lesser and is the criterion for updating.
Those percent population changes which result in goth percentile ETE changes greater than or equal to 30 minutes are highlighted in red in Table M a 1g% or greater increase in the EPZ permanent resident population (includes 20% of the Shadow Region permanent resident population). Dominion Energy will have to estimate the EPZ population on an annual basis. If the EPZ population increases by 1g% or more before the next decennial Census, an updated ETE analysis will be needed.
Note the 100th percentile ETE are significantly impacted by population change - a 50 minute increase for 18% population growth, and a 1 hour increase for 1g% and 20% population growth.
These values are not highlighted in Table M-3, however, because the federal regulations focus on the goth percentile ETE.
M.4 Enhancements in Evacuation Time This appendix documents sensitivity studies on critical variables that could impact ETE. Possible improvements to ETE are further discussed below:
* Mobilization time has little impact on ETE (Section M.1). Nonetheless, encouraging evacuees to have essential items packed ahead of time, to mobilize expeditiously, and to have a family plan for evacuation could be beneficial.
* Increased shadow evacuation significantly impacts the goth and 100th percentile ETE (Section M.2). Public outreach should be considered to inform those people within the EPZ (and potentially beyond the EPZ) that if they are not advised to evacuate, they should not as they could delay the egress of those people most at risk.
* Population growth results in more evacuating vehicles which could significantly increase ETE (Section M.3). Public outreach to inform those people within the EPZ to evacuate as a family in a single vehicle would reduce the number of evacuating vehicles and could reduce ETE or offset the impact of population growth.
Surry Power Station                              M-3                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                      Rev.O
 
Table M-1. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study Trip                                    Evacuation Time Estimate for Entire EPZ Generation Period                          90th Percentile                        1001h Percentile 3:45                                3:55                                    6:10 4:45 (Base)                              3:55                                    6:05 5:45                                4:00                                    6:05 Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study Evacuating                        Evacuation Time Estimate for Entire EPZ Percent Shadow                Shadow Evacuation                Vehicles 1                  90 1h Percentile                1001h Percentile 0                          0                            3:50                            5:50 15 (Demographic                  13,734 Survey)                                                    3:55                            6:05 20 (Base)                  18,312 3:55                            6:05 40                      36,624 4:05                            6:25 60                      54,936                          4:20                            6:50 80                      73,248                          4:45                            7:20 100                      91,560                          5:05                            7:50 1 The Evacuating Shadow Vehicles in Table M-2 represent the residents and employees who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation. The basis for the base values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees. See Section 6 for further discussion.
Surry Power Station                                          M-4                                    KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                              Rev.O
 
Table M-3. ETE Variation with Population Change Region              Base                    18%
2-MILE              3:25                    3:30                3:30              3:30 5-MILE              4:00                    4:00                4:00              4:00 5:45              5:50 ETE for 100th Percentile Population Change Region              Base                    18%                  19%                20%
2-MILE              6:30                    6:30                6:30              6:30 5-MILE              6:35                    6:35                6:35              6:35 FULL EPZ              8:25                    9:15                9:25              9:25 Surry Power Station                              M-5                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                        Rev.O
 
APPENDIX N ETE Criteria Checklist
 
N. ETE CRITERIA CHECKLIST Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                                      Analysis                    Comments (Yes/No/NA) 1.0 Introduction
: a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) and surrounding area is                        Yes      Section 1.2 described.
: b. A map is included that identifies primary features of the site                    Yes      Figures 1-1, 3-1, 6-1 including major roadways, significant topographical features, boundaries of counties, and population centers within the EPZ.
: c. A comparison of the current and previous ETE is provided                        Yes      Section 1.4, Table 1-3 including information similar to that identified in Table 1-1, "ETE Comparison."
1.1 Approach
: a. The general approach is described in the report as outlined in                    Yes      Section 1.1, Section 1.3, Appendix D Section 1.1, "Approach."
1.2 Assumptions
: a. Assumptions consistent with Table 1-2, "General                                  Yes      Section 2 Assumptions," of NUREG/CR-7002 are provided and include the basis to support use.
1.3 Scenario Development
: a. The scenarios in Table 1-3, "Evacuation Scenarios," are                          Yes      Table 2-1, Section 6, Table 6-2 developed for the ETE analysis. A reason is provided for use of other scenarios or for not evaluating specific scenarios.
Surry Power Station                                                    N-1                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA) 1.4 Evacuation Planning Areas
: a. A map of the EPZ with emergency response planning areas                  Yes        Figure 3-1, Figure 6-1 (ERPAs) is included.
1.4.1 Keyhole Evacuation
: a. A table similar to Table 1-4 "Evacuation Areas for a Keyhole              Yes        Table 6-1, Table 7-5, Table H-1 Evacuation", is provided identifying the ERPAs considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction.
1.4.2 Staged Evacuation
: a. The approach used in development of a staged evacuation is                Yes        Section 7.2, Section 5.4.2 discussed.
: b. A table similar to Table 1-5, "Evacuation Areas for a Staged              Yes        Table 6-1, Table 7-5, Table H-1, Table 7-3, Evacuation," is provided for staged evacuations identifying                        Table 7-4 the ERPAs considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction.
2.0 Demand Estimation
: a. Demand estimation is developed for the four population                  Yes        Section 3 groups (permanent residents of the EPZ, transients, special facilities, and schools).
2.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population
: a. The U.S. Census is the source of the population values, or                Yes        Section 3.1 another credible source is provided.
: b. The availability date of the census data is provided.                    Yes        Section 3.1 Surry Power Station                                                N-2                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                                Analysis                    Comments (Yes/No/NA)
C. Population values are adjusted as necessary for growth to                  NA        2020 Census used as the base year of the reflect population estimates to the year of the ETE.                                  analysis
: d. A sector diagram, similar to Figure 2-1, "Population by                      Yes        Figure 3-2 Sector," is included showing the population distribution for permanent residents.
2.1.1 Permanent Residents with Vehicles
: a. The persons per vehicle value is between 1 and 3 or                          Yes        Section 3.1, Appendix F justification is provided for other values.
2.1.2 Transient Population
: a. A list of facilities that attract transient populations is included,        Yes        Section 3.3, Table E-5 through Table E-7 and peak and average attendance for these facilities is listed.
The source of information used to develop attendance values is provided.
: b. Major employers are listed.                                                  Yes        Section 3.4, Table E-4 C. The average population during the season is used, itemized                  Yes        Table 3-4, Table 3-5, and Appendix E and totaled for each scenario.                                                        itemize the peak transient population and employee estimates. These estimates are multiplied by the scenario specific percentages provided in Table 6-3 to estimate average transient population and employee by scenario - see Table 6-4.
: d. The percentage of permanent residents assumed to be at                      Yes        Section 3.3 and Section 3.4 facilities is estimated .
Surry Power Station                                                  N-3                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: e. The number of people per vehicle is provided. Numbers may                Yes        Section 3.3 and Section 3.4 vary by scenario, and if so, reasons for the variation are discussed.
: f. A sector diagram is included, similar to Figure 2-1, "Population        Yes        Figure 3-6 (transients) and Figure 3-8 by Sector", is included showing the population distribution for                    (employees) the transient population.
2.2 Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
: a. The methodology (e.g., surveys, registration programs) used              Yes        Section 3.6 to determine the number of transit dependent residents is discussed.
: b. The State and local evacuation plans for transit dependent                Yes        Section 8.1 residents are used in the analysis.
: c. The methodology used to determine the number of people                    Yes        Section 3.9 with disabilities and those with access and functional needs who may need assistance and do not reside in special facilities is provided. Data from local/county registration programs are used in the estimate.
: d. Capacities are provided for all types of transportation                  Yes        Item 3 of Section 2.4 resources. Bus seating capacity of 50 percent is used or justification is provided for higher values.
: e. An estimate of the transit dependent population is provided.              Yes        Section 3.6, Table 3-7, Table 3-11 Surry Power Station                                                N-4                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                                  Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: f. A summary table showing the total number of buses,                          Yes        Table 3-9, Table 3-12, Table 8-1 ambulances, or other transport assumed available to support evacuation is provided. The quantification of resources is detailed enough to ensure that double counting has not occurred.
2.3 Special Facility Residents
: a. Special facilities, including the type of facility, location, and            Yes        Table E-3 lists all medical facilities by average population, are listed. Special facility staff is included                    facility name, location, and average in the total special facility population.                                              population. Staff estimates were not provided. Table E-9
: b. The method of obtaining special facility data is discussed.                  Yes        Section 3.5, Section 3.10
: c. An estimate of the number and capacity of vehicles assumed                    Yes        Section 3.5, Section 3.10 available to support the evacuation of the facility is provided.
: d. The logistics for mobilizing specially trained staff (e.g., medical          Yes        Section 8.1- under "Evacuation of Medical support or security support for prisons, jails, and other                              Facilities", "Evacuation of Correctional correctional facilities) are discussed when appropriate.                                Facilities" 2.4 Schools
: a. A list of schools including name, location, student population,              Yes        Table 3-8, Table E-1, Table E-2, Section 3.7 and transportation resources required to support the evacuation, is provided. The source of this information should be identified.
: b. Transportation resources for elementary and middle schools                    Yes        Section 3.7 are based on 100 percent of the school capacity.
Surry Power Station                                                    N-5                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                              Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
C. The estimate of high school students who will use personal              Yes        Section 3.7 vehicle to evacuate is provided and a basis for the values used is given.
: d. The need for return trips is identified.                                  Yes        Section 8.1- no return trips are needed.
2.5 Other Demand Estimate Considerations 2.5.1 Special Events
: a. A complete list of special events is provided including                  Yes        Section 3.8 information on the population, estimated duration, and season of the event.
: b. The special event that encompasses the peak transient                    Yes        Section 3.8 population is analyzed in the ETE.
C. The percentage of permanent residents attending the event is            Yes        Section 3.8 estimated.
2.5.2 Shadow Evacuation
: a. A shadow evacuation of 20 percent is included consistent                  Yes        Item 7 of Section 2.2, Figure 2-1 and Figure with the approach outlined in Section 2.5.2, "Shadow                              7-1, Section 3.2 Evacuation".
: b. Population estimates for the shadow evacuation in the                    Yes        Section 3.2, Table 3-3, Figure 3-4 shadow region beyond the EPZ are provided by sector.
: c. The loading of the shadow evacuation onto the roadway                    Yes        Section 5 -Table 5-9 (footnote) network is consistent with the trip generation time generated for the permanent resident population.
Surry Power Station                                                N-6                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                            Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA) 2.5.3 Background and Pass Through Traffic
: a. The volume of background traffic and pass-through traffic is            Yes        Section 3.11, Section 3.12 based on the average daytime traffic. Values may be reduced for nighttime scenarios.
: b. The method of reducing background and pass-through traffic              Yes        Section 2.2 - Item 12 is described.
Section 2.5 Section 3.11 and Section 3.12 Table 6 External Through Traffic footnote
: c. Pass-through traffic is assumed to have stopped entering the          Yes        Section 2.5, Section 3.11 EPZ about two (2) hours after the initial notification.
2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation
: a. A summary table is provided that identifies the total                    Yes        Table 3-11, Table 3-12, and Table 6-4 populations and total vehicles used in the analysis for permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, special facilities, schools, shadow population, and pass-through demand in each scenario.
3.0 Roadway Capacity
: a. The method(s) used to assess roadway capacity is discussed.              Yes        Section 4 3.1 Roadway Characteristics
: a. The process for gathering roadway characteristic data is                Yes        Section 1.3, Appendix D described including the types of information gathered and how it is used in the analysis.
Surry Power Station                                              N-7                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: b. Legible maps are provided that identify nodes and links of the            Yes        Appendix K modeled roadway network similar to Figure A-1, "Roadway Network Identifying Nodes and Links," and Figure A-2, "Grid Map Showing Detailed Nodes and Links."
3.2 Model Approach
: a. The approach used to calculate the roadway capacity for the              Yes        Section 4 transportation network is described in detail, and the description identifies factors that are expressly used in the modeling.
: b. Route assignment follows expected evacuation routes and                  Yes        Appendix Band Appendix C traffic volumes.
: c. A basis is provided for static route choices if used to assign          N/A        Static route choices are not used to assign evacuation routes.                                                                evacuation routes. Dynamic traffic assignment is used.
: d. Dynamic traffic assignment models are described including                Yes        Appendix Band Appendix C calibration of the route assignment.
3.3 Intersection Control
: a. A list that includes the total numbers of intersections                  Yes        Table K-1 modeled that are unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel is provided.
: b. The use of signal cycle timing, including adjustments for                Yes        Section 4, Appendix G manned traffic control, is discussed.
3.4 Adverse Weather
: a. The adverse weather conditions are identified.                            Yes        Item 2 and 3 of Section 2.6 Surry Power Station                                                N-8                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                    Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: b. The speed and capacity reduction factors identified in Table 3-          Yes        Table 2-2 1, "Weather Capacity Factors," are used or a basis is provided for other values, as applicable to the model.
: c. The calibration and adjustment of driver behavior models for              N/A        Driver behavior is not adjusted for adverse adverse weather conditions are described, if applicable.                          weather conditions.
: d. The effect of adverse weather on mobilization is considered              Yes        Item 6 of Section 2.6, Table 2-2 and assumptions for snow removal on streets and driveways are identified, when applicable.
4.0 Development of Evacuation Times 4.1 Traffic Simulation Models
: a. General information about the traffic simulation model used              Yes        Section 1.3, Table 1-3, Appendix B, in the analysis is provided.                                                      Appendix C
: b. If a traffic simulation model is not used to perform the ETE              N/A        Not applicable since a traffic simulation calculation, sufficient detail is provided to validate the                          model was used.
analytical approach used.
4.2 Traffic Simulation Model Input
: a. Traffic simulation model assumptions and a representative set            Yes        Section 2, Appendix J of model inputs are provided.
: b. The number of origin nodes and method for distributing                    Yes        Appendix J, Appendix C vehicles among the origin nodes are described.
C. A glossary of terms is provided for the key performance                Yes        Appendix A, Table C-1, and Table C-3 measures and parameters used in the analysis.
Surry Power Station                                                N-9                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                    Comments (Yes/No/NA) 4.3 Trip Generation Time
: a. The process used to develop trip generation times is                      Yes        Section 5 identified.
: b. When surveys are used, the scope of the survey, area of the              Yes        Appendix F survey, number of participants, and statistical relevance are provided.
: c. Data used to develop trip generation times are summarized.              Yes        Appendix F, Section 5
: d. The trip generation time for each population group is                    Yes        Section 5 developed from site-specific information.
: e. The methods used to reduce uncertainty when developing                    N/A        There was no uncertainty when trip generation times are discussed, if applicable.                                developing trip generation times.
4.3.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population
: a. Permanent residents are assumed to evacuate from their                    Yes        Section 5 discusses trip generation for homes but are not assumed to be at home at all times. Trip                        households with and without returning generation time includes the assumption that a percentage of                        commuters.
residents will need to return home before evacuating.                              Table 6-3 presents the percentage of households with returning commuters and the percentage of households either without returning commuters or with no commuters.
Appendix F presents the percent households who will await the return of commuters.
Item 3 of Section 2.3 Surry Power Station                                              N-10                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                            Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: b. The trip generation time accounts for the time and method to              Yes        Section 5 notify transients at various locations.
: c. The trip generation time accounts for transients potentially              Yes        Section 5, Figure 5-1 returning to hotels before evacuating.
: d. The effect of public transportation resources used during                Yes        Section 3.8 special events where a large number of transients are Public Transportation is not provided for expected is considered.
the special event and was therefore not considered.
4.3.2 Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
: a. If available, existing and approved plans and bus routes are              Yes        Section 8.1 under "Evacuation of Transit used in the ETE analysis.                                                          Dependent People {Residents without access to a vehicle)"
: b. The means of evacuating ambulatory and non-ambulatory                    Yes        Section 8.1 under "Evacuation of Transit residents are discussed.                                                          Dependent People {Residents without access to a vehicle)"
Section 8.2 C. Logistical details, such as the time to obtain buses, brief            Yes        Section 8.1, Figure 8-1 drivers and initiate the bus route are used in the analysis.
Surry Power Station                                              N-11                                          KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                                Analysis                    Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: d. The estimated time for transit dependent residents to                      Yes        Section 8.1 under "Evacuation of Transit prepare and then travel to a bus pickup point, including the                        Dependent People {Residents without expected means of travel to the pickup point, is described.                        access to a vehicle)"
: e. The number of bus stops and time needed to load passengers                Yes        Section 8.1, Table 8-5 though Table 8-7 are discussed.
: f. A map of bus routes is included.                                        Yes        Figure 10-2 through Figure 10-8
: g. The trip generation time for non-ambulatory persons                        Yes        Section 8.2 including the time to mobilize ambulances or special vehicles, time to drive to the home of residents, time to load, and time to drive out of the EPZ, is provided.
: h. Information is provided to support analysis of return trips, if            Yes        Sections 8.1 and 8.2 -no return trips are necessary.                                                                          needed.
4.3.3 Special Facilities
: a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times is              Yes        Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-8 provided.
: b. The logistics of evacuating wheelchair and bed bound                      Yes        Section 8.1, Table 8-8 residents are discussed.
C. Time for loading of residents is provided.                                Yes        Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-8
: d. Information is provided that indicates whether the evacuation              Yes        Section 8.1 can be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.
: e. Discussion is provided on whether special facility residents              Yes        Section 8.1 are expected to pass through the reception center before being evacuated to their final destination.
Surry Power Station                                                N-12                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                                Analysis                    Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: f. Supporting information is provided to quantify the time                    Yes        Section 8.1 elements for each trip, including destinations if return trips are needed.
4.3.4 Schools
: a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times is              Yes        Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-2 through provided.                                                                            Table 8-4
: b. Time for loading of students is provided.                                  Yes        Section 2.4, Section 8.1, Table 8-2 through Table 8-4
: c. Information is provided that indicates whether the evacuation            Yes        Section 8.1 can be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.
: d. If used, reception centers should be identified. A discussion is            Yes        Section 8.1, Table 10-9 provided on whether students are expected to pass through the reception center before being evacuated to their final destination.
: e. Supporting information is provided to quantify the time                    Yes        Section 8.1, Table 8-2 through Table 8-4 elements for each trip, including destinations if return trips are needed.
4.4 Stochastic Model Runs
: a. The number of simulation runs needed to produce average                    N/A        DYNEV does not rely on simulation results is discussed.                                                                averages or random seeds for statistical Surry Power Station                                                N-13                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                                Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: b. If one run of a single random seed is used to produce each                N/A        confidence. For DYNEV/DTRAD, it is a ETE result, the report includes a sensitivity study on the 90                      mesoscopic simulation and uses dynamic percent and 100 percent ETE using 10 different random seeds                        traffic assignment model to obtain the for evacuation of the full EPZ under Summer, Midweek,                                "average" (stable) network work flow Daytime, Normal Weather conditions.                                                distribution. This is different from microscopic simulation, which is monte-carlo random sampling by nature relying on different seeds to establish statistical confidence. Refer to Appendix B for more details.
4.5 Model Boundaries
: a. The method used to establish the simulation model                          Yes        Section 4.5 boundaries is discussed.
: b. Significant capacity reductions or population centers that may            Yes        Section 4.5 influence the ETE and that are located beyond the evacuation area or shadow region are identified and included in the model, if needed.
4.6 Traffic Simulation Model Output
: a. A discussion of whether the traffic simulation model used                  Yes        Appendix B must be in equilibration prior to calculating the ETE is provided.
Surry Power Station                                                N-14                                              KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                              Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: b. The minimum following model outputs for evacuation of the                  Yes            1. Appendix J, Table J-2 entire EPZ are provided to support review:                                              2. Table J-2
: 1. Evacuee average travel distance and time.                                            3. Table J-4
: 2. Evacuee average delay time.                                                          4. None and 0%. 100 percent ETE is
: 3. Number of vehicles arriving at each destination node.                                      based on the time the last vehicle
: 4. Total number and percentage of evacuee vehicles not                                        exits the evacuation zone exiting the EPZ.                                                                    5. Figures J-2 through J-15 (one plot
: 5. A plot that provides both the mobilization curve and                                      for each scenario considered) evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of                            6. Table J-3 evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ.
: 6. Average speed for each major evacuation route that exits the EPZ.
C. Color coded roadway maps are provided for various times                  Yes        Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 (e.g., at 2, 4, 6 hrs.) during a full EPZ evacuation scenario, identifying areas where congestion exists.
4.7 Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public
: a. The ETE includes the time to evacuate 90 percent and 100                    Yes        Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 percent of the total permanent resident and transient population.
: b. Termination criteria for the 100 percent ETE are discussed, if              N/A        100 percent ETE is based on the time the not based on the time the last vehicle exits the evacuation                          last vehicle exits the evacuation zone.
zone.
Surry Power Station                                                N-15                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                          Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                            Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
C. The ETE for 100 percent of the general public includes all              Yes        Section 5.4.1- truncating survey data to members of the general public. Any reductions or truncated                        eliminate statistical outliers data is explained.
Table 7 100th percentile ETE for general population
: d. Tables are provided for the 90 and 100 percent ETEs similar to          Yes        Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 Table 4-3, "ETEs for a Staged Evacuation," and Table 4-4, "ETEs for a Keyhole Evacuation."
: e. ETEs are provided for the 100 percent evacuation of special              Yes        Section 8 facilities, transit dependent, and school populations.
5.0 Other Considerations 5.1 Development of Traffic Control Plans
: a. Information that responsible authorities have approved the              Yes        Section 9, Appendix G traffic control plan used in the analysis are discussed.
: b. Adjustments or additions to the traffic control plan that affect        Yes        Section 9, Appendix G the ETE is provided.
5.2 Enhancements in Evacuation Time
: a. The results of assessments for enhancing evacuations are                Yes        Appendix M provided.
5.3 State and Local Review
: a. A list of agencies contacted is provided and the extent of              Yes        Table 1-1 interaction with these agencies is discussed.
Surry Power Station                                              N-16                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                        Rev. O
 
Addressed in ETE NRC Review Criteria                            Analysis                      Comments (Yes/No/NA)
: b. Information is provided on any unresolved issues that may              Yes        Results of the ETE study were formally affect the ETE.                                                                  presented to state and local authorities at the final project meeting. Comments on the draft report were provided and were addressed in the final report. There are no unresolved issues.
5.4 Reviews and Updates
: a. The criteria for when an updated ETE analysis is required to            Yes        Appendix M, Section M.3 be performed and submitted to the NRC is discussed.
5.4.1 Extreme Conditions
: a. The updated ETE analysis reflects the impact of EPZ conditions          N/A        This ETE is being updated as a result of the not adequately reflected in the scenario variations.                            availability of US Census Bureau decennial census data.
5.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Center
: a. A map of congregate care centers and reception centers is              Yes        Figure 10-9 provided.
Surry Power Station                                            N-17                                            KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate                                                                                                      Rev. O}}

Latest revision as of 03:56, 16 November 2024

CFR 50, Appendix E, Evacuation Time Estimate
ML22258A300
Person / Time
Site: Surry  Dominion icon.png
Issue date: 09/14/2022
From: Mladen F
Dominion Energy Virginia, Virginia Electric & Power Co (VEPCO)
To:
Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
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