ML19345C211

Public Version of Independent Assessment of Evacuation Times for Limerick Nuclear Power Plant, Vol 5,prepared for FEMA

ML19345C211
Person / Time
Site:	Limerick
Issue date:	06/30/1980
From:	Cosby J, Coulter G, Sheppard W WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
To:
References
NUDOCS 8012040145
Download: ML19345C211 (68)

Text

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ASS ESS V.E N T O? EVAC JA-~ O N

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.\\ J C _..E A R P O WE R P L A N Prepared for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY PL9sonst 15fS c

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D ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The independent assessment of the evacuation times contained in this report was performed under the techt. cal direction of i

John C. Cosby.

Mr. William V. Sheppard, Vic...

P resident, was the Principal-in-Charge of the Project.

The pr Ancipal contributors to the individual volumes of the report were:

Volume I

- Procram Report

- John C.

Cosby volume II

- Bailly

- James R. Bancro f t Volume III

- Beaver Valley

- Richard A.

Day Volure IV

- Enrico Fermi

- Elbert L. Waters Volume V

- Limerick

- George S. Coulter, Jr Volume VI

- Maine Yankee

- Robe rt P. Jurasin Volume VII

- Midland

- James R. Bancroft and Elbert L. Waters Volume VIII - Millstone

- Frank LaMagna Volume IX

- Shoreham

- H.

Dean Browner Volume X

- Three Mile Island - Welbourne E.

Thompson All reports were revised and edited by John C. Cosby and E. Cean Browner.

All of the above personnel are permanent e=picyees of Wilbur Smith and Associates.

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TABLE OF CONTENT Pace Introduction 1

Evacuation Time Assessment Versus 2

Evacuation Plan l

General Assumptions 3

Description of Site 6

Emergency Planning. Area 7

General Regional Characteristics 9

Support Organizatiens 11 Su= mary of Emergency Planning To Date 12 Area Characteristics 13 Topography 13 Meteorology 13 Demography 17 1

Concept of Evacuation 29 Notification of Evacuation 29 Public Response Time 30 Evacuation Link /Nede Network 32 Evacuation Time Assessment 50 Normal Weekday 50 Sumq.ertime 50 Adverse Weather 50 Nighttime 51 Se.ctor Evacuation 51

5 ILLUSTRATIONS FIGURE PAGE 1

Study Site Location 8

2 Wind Rose 15 3

Special Problem Areas 28 4

Special Problem Areas 28 5

Special Problem Areas 28 6

Special Problem Areas 28 1

7-Evar.caation Network 28 i

8 Evacuation Network 32 9

Evacuation Network 32 10 Evacuation Network 32 f

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b TABULATIONS TABLE PAGE 1

~ Climatological Summary Data 15 2

Percentage Frequency of Wind Speed 16 3

Summary of 1985 Projected Population of the Planning Zones 19 4

Schools Within 10-Mile Radius 21 5

Hospitals Within 10-Mile Radius 25 6

Nursing Homes Within 10-Mile Radius 26 7

Population Gathering Points Within 10-Mile Radius 27 3

Network Description 33 9

Vehicle on Each Link 40 10 Evacuation Route Link / Node Description 44 11 Evacuation Times by Centroids 52 l

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INTRODUCTION An independent assessment of evacuation times around nine nuclear power plant sites was made for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The results of this three-month study are contained in ten volumes, as follcws :

Volume I

- Program Report - Evacuaticn Tire Assessment of Nine Nuclear Pcwer Plant Emergency Planning Zcnes (EP Z ' s)

Volume II

- Bailly Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Tire Assessment Volume III

- Beaver Valley Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacua* don Time Assessment Volure IV

- Enrico Fer=i Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Tire Assessment Volume V

- Limerick Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacua' don Time Assessment Volume VI

- Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant Evacua* den Time Assessrent Volume VII

- Midland Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volure VIII - Millstone Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacua* den Time Assessment Volume IX

- Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessrent volure X

- Three Mile Island Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment In addition, an Executive Su= mary is also available.

This volume contains a technical discussion and evacuation times assessment for Limerick Nuclear Power Plant.

The evalu-ation of four scenaries and the discussion of evacuation of l

4

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t special problem areas are included.

The scenarios evaluated are those expected when evacuation takes place at night (the optimum time from the standpoint of evacuation time), during a normal workday, during bad weather (the worst case condition),

i and, where applicable, the evacuation with summertime resident and transient population.

Evacuation Time Assessment versus Evaccation Plan The assessment employs available demographic data and-trans-portation facility information to predict the public response 4

time to an evacuation warning on the assumption that such a warn-ing is made within 15 minutes of an en-site nuciear incident warranting such emergency action.

The assessment must provide for estimates of public response j

time to these warnings, assembly of family and other groups,

preparation for departure, travel time en the network including consideration of capacity limitations en the network possibly forming cueues which add to delays, and clearance of the 10-mile radius around the site.

It must consider the evacuation of special prcblem areas and groups.

These would. include schools, nurseries,

nursing and retirement homt s, hospitals, penal facilities, beaches and recreational areas, and other activities which may provide periodic or seasonal concentrations of people.

Population groups

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without access to their own transportation or unable to provide the special transportation facilities required for evacuation must be included in the evacuation time assessment.

i Evacuation time assessment methodology combines selected techniques of traffic management anc planning, land use planning and cperational analysis.

Because some conditions prevailing during an evacuation are not well documented, modifications to

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some established principles may be required to meet evacuation requirements.

Assumptiens may be required in lieu of well formu-lated relationships because of the highly specialized problems being addressed.

These assumptions must be founded on best pro-fessional judgement and/or extrapolation from existing knowledge.

The assumptiens must be specifically identified.

The bases upon j

which the assumptions are founded shculd be appropriately dis-cussed.

Evacuation time assessments contain basic methodolcgy commen to evacuatien plan development.

Ecwever, the assessment is not

, an evacuatior plan.

The major distinction between the assessment and a plan is the extent to which the elements have been coordi-nated with all pc ticipant agencies and jurisdictions.

For example, the assessment may assume that a specific traffic management element is established to cptimize traffic operations at a specific location alcng an evacuation network.

The feasi-bility of such an eierent in the assessment would be based upon established technical principles.

Ecwever, the element would not be coordinated with specific law enforcement agencies to establish what agency would exercise the element control and managerent ner identify the type and number of personnel to be required.

The study tim allcuted makes such coordination im-possible.

ne assessment must identify what is required for the evacuatien time to be realized, and assume that such an element would be implemented.

General Assumptions In the assessment of evacuation times, certain general assumptions were mandatory.

More impcrtant of these are summa-rized as folicws:

1.

Emergency evacuatien of the general public from the EPZ will be perfor:ned largely frem the hcme by the family as a united 3

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group.

This assumption is prefaced by the folicwing quote:III people will not _ evacuate an area, regardless of the danger, if their family group is separated, unless they knew that members of their f amily are safe, accounted for, and that arrangerants have been made for them to evacuate."

It was felt that this psychological pressure is so prevalent and streng that the above assumption appears to be justified.

In addition, to assure that segments of the family are safe and accounted for would have required the establishment of shel ter locations and the develep-ment of a shelter support plan.

In view of the next assumption and due to the short time period of the study, this was not done.

2.

Public use of shelters in previous mass evacuation exper-ience related to natural disasters appears to be a very small percentage of total evacuees.

Examples cited in literature include : (2)

"In a California flood, only 9,260 out of 50,000 persens evac.1,ated registered in the 38 Red Cross shelters; during Hurricane Carla, 75 percent of the evacuees went to other than public shelters; and during Hurricane Betsy, only 20 percent requested assistance.

Generally, shelter centers are used only if nothing else is available er if cne cannot financially care for himself."

In this evacuation tire assessment study, it was assumed that the predominant traffic, af ter leaving the '0-mile EP, went diverse routes rather than to a shelter destination.

Therefore, the evacuaticn time assessment ended at the EPZ bcundary.

An analysis of route capacities and service levels of highway facilities beycnd that beundary was made to assure that delays or problems were unlikely to occur.

(1)

EVACUATICN RISKS - AN EVALUATICN, U.S.

Environmental Pro-tecticn Agency, Of fice of Radiation Programs, EPA-520/6 002, June, 1974, p. 49.

(2)

Ibid., p. 52.

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6 3.

Experience gained in a large range of evacuations indi-cates that private vehicles (3)

. were the predominant mode for evacuation (more than 99 percent).

Population density ranged frem approximately 15 persens per square mile to 20,000 persens per square mile. "

It was assumed that this was applicable to this time assessment study.

It was further assumed that persens without private vehicle. transportation would be provided, at their telephone request, adequate transportation in high occu-pancy vehicles (HOV's).

The additional vehicle volumes on the network would therefore be small, could be affected during the general public evacuation time, and would not affect the computed evacuation times of the general population.

4.

It has been cbserved that not all persens will evacuate the EP Z.

"In many cases, even when presented with a grave threat, pecple ;:sfuse to evacuate. "I4)

This source continues, "Results of this ctudy indicate that approximately six pert.ent of the total pcpulation refused to evacuate.

Other reports indicate this figure can run as high as 50 percent.

There is no reascn to believe that because the disaster agent is radiation rather than some other agent

. will provide sufficient motivatien to leave.

Rather the cpposite viewpcint should be t aken--pe cp le will hesitate to leave."I3)

It is believed that a majority of this hesitance is based on fear of ' exposing their prcperty to 1coting and vandalism.

Notwithstanding this evidence, this time assessment study assumed that all persens evacuate.

5.

It has been assumed that the traffic network within the EPZ has been isolated so that no through traffic is permitted to enter it within 15 minutes af ter the evacuation warning has been issued.

(3)

Ibid., p. 52.

(4)

Ibid., p. 48.

(5)

Lcc. cit.

5

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Traffic management by appropriate law enforcement efficers will be performed at selected intersection where evacuation traffic flow is given priority.

7.

All persons in the EPZ have been provided, in advance,-

sufficient information regarding the assigned evacuation route frem their place of residence (referred to as the " centroid" in the report).

8.

It was ' assumed that the public response to an evacuation order can be defined as a ccabination of up to four categories of statistically distributed responses:

receive warninc leave work, travel home, and evacuate home.

It was assumed that these responses are time-distributed following a normal distribution curve.

The details and applications of this assumption are more fully discussed later in this report.

Additional assumptions were made which are summarized at the back of the report under this heading.

Description of Site Location - The site of the Limerick nuclear generating station is in Limerick Township of Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, on the northeast bank of the Schuylkill River approximately four miles downriver frem Pottstown, 35 river miles upriver from i

Philadelphia, and 49 river miles above the confluence of the Schuylkill with the Delaware River.

The site is situated in the rolling countryside of Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.

The area included within a 10-mile radius of the station includes parts of three Pennsylvania counties -

4 Montgomery, Chester, and Berks.

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In 19 8 5,- ic is estimated that there will be 171,876 people residing within 10-miles.of the site.

Montgomery County will have 102,510 people (60 percent), Chester County 49,701 people (29 percent), and Berks County 19,665 peop.e (11 percent).

Licensee - The licensee for Limerick is the Philadelphia Electric Ccmpany.

The General Electric Company is responsible for the nuclear steam supply system (NS3S) and is designing and supplying the reactors, the reactor fuel, and the associated turbine-generater system with the Chicago Bridge and Iron Company supplying the reactor vessels.

All other systems of the station are being designed, procured, and constructed by the Bechtel Corporation which is the architect / engineer / constructor for the project.

Type of ' Plant - The 7arick Generating Station will produce electrical power using two turbine-generator units, each driven by steam produced by its cwn boiling water nuclear reactor (BWR).

Each unit will have a rated thermal power level from its associated NSSS of 3293 MWT.

The net station output frem each of the genera-4 tors will be 1055 MWE.

The date of initial criticality for unit one is scheduled for January, 1985 with the date for commercial operation being scheduled for April, 1985.

The scheduled dates fer initial criticality and commercial cperation for unit two are January, 1987 and April 1987, respectively.

Emergency Planninc Area The area within a 10-mile radius surrounding a nuclear plant is reccmmended for the delineation of the emergency planning

ene (EPZ).

The area within the.10-mile radius around the Limerick generating plant enecmpasses all or part of 34 tcwnships and 9 boroughs in three counties.

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h The EPZ is defined as the area enclosed by a circle of 10-mile radius.

Fcr purposes of confirmation of evacuation of the EPZ, boundaries were delineated to just outside the perimeter of the 10-mile circle to coincide with readily identifiable land-marks such as rivers, political jurisdictional boundaries, road-ways, and other easily identified topographical features.

Although the roadway network developed for evacuation purposes stops at the 10-mile circle, the peripheral boundaries will assist the agencies implementing the evacuatien plans and the people affectea by evacuation to identify the cuter boundaries of the planning area.

Figure 1 presents a map of the Emergency Planning Area arcund Limerick and shows the 10-mile radius circle which de,icts c

the EPZ for the plant.

The following description of the amergency planning area starts at the junction of the Montgomery and Chester county lines in the Schuylkill River and goes counter-clockwise around the perimeter of the EPZ.

The Emergency Planning area boundary in Montgemery County generally follows the Schuylkill River, LR 46065, LR 46064, SR 363, US 422, T 386, T 340, T 397, Shippack Creek, T 364, SR 113, T 367, T '31, SR 63, SR 29, LR-46013, T 477, T 380, New Hanover Co., Line, and LR 46012 to the Berks county line.

In addition to the-34 tcwnships that the EPZ affects, there are part of two additional townships in the Montgomery County emergency planning area that is not within the EPZ. 'These are Towamencin and Worester Townships, d

In Berks County the boundary generally follows LR 06033, T 841, LR 06026, LR 06098, T 652, Celebreckdale County Line, SR 73, T 626, LR 06034, SR 562, SR 662, LR 06108, T 464, T 443, 8

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LR 06059, LR 06179, LR 06097 and the western boundary of the U.S.

Federal Park into Chester County.

After crossing into Chester County'along the Federal Park boundary, the emergency planning area boundary generally follows SR 345, T 533, SR 23, T 410, T 513, T 514, T 512, T 510, l

T 452, SR 100, T 464, T 461, SR 401, I 76, the Charlestown County Line, and the Schuylkill County Line to the river and Mentgomery County.

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l General Regional Characteristics j

The Limerick site is in the Triassic lowland sections of f

the Piedmont Physiegraphic Province, which is part of the l

Appalachian Highiands.

Although Montgcmery County is the third

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rest populcus in the state, there is a fairly high level of agricultural activity, principally dairying.

In 1971, Chester and Berks were ranked in the top ten counties of Pennsylvania in the prcduction of corn, cats, hay, potatoes, apples, peaches, poultry and milk.

There are several manufacturing plans located within the 10-mile circle along the Schuylkill River.

Boyertown, Trappe, and Collegeville, also have small =anufacturing facilities.

There are several employers within the EPZ which employ over 1,000 people.

West Cemagny in Phcenixville employs 3,200 people.

Mrs. Smith Pie Ccmpany in Pottstown, employs 2,400 and Teleflex Inc., in Royersford has over 1,400 employees.

Pocularion Distribution - Within the 10-mile radius of the j

Limerick plant there are 34 townships and 9 boroughs.

The nearest j

populations center within the 10-mile circle is Pottstevn in Montgcmery County with a 1985 projected pcpulation of 27,720, 9

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t six smaller ecmmunities within the 10-mile circle with 1985 pro-jected pcpulatiens of 2,0)0 to 15,000 include Phoenixville, l

Trappe, Collegeville, Spring City, Soyertown, and Roversford.

The largest populated township is Upper Providence in Montgomery County which will have close to 10,000 people in 1985.

Other tewnships with a 1985 projected population of over 5,000 include Douglass, Limerick, Lcwcr Pottsgrove, Lcwer Providence and Shippack in Montgcmery County, North Coventry Township in Chester County and Amity Township in Berks' County.

Mac - Plan 3ine Zones - As mentioned previously, Figure 1 presents a =ap of the planning area arcund the Limerick Nuclear Plant with the station being at the center of the map.

The EPZ

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1, is shown as a circle with a 10-mile radius and the E=ergency Planning Area bcundary is depicted around the perimeter of the i

circle.

The map shows the Schuylkill River running in a NW-SE direction through the EPZ with county, tcwnship, and borough bcundaries identified as such.

Major Transportation Facilities - There are several highways within relatively short distance frem the site.

US 422 is 1-1/2 miles north and runs in a NW-SE directicn.

PA 100 is 4 miles west through Pottstown and runs N-S.

PA 724 is 1-1/4 mile west 1

accross the Schuylkill river and runs in a NW-SE direction.

An extension of the Schuylkill Expressway (NW-SE) is presently q

under construction and is being routed within 4 miles of the eastern boundary of the site.

1 other highways within the 10-mile radius include PA 23 which 4

is 4 miles south acrcss the river and runs W-E.

PA 73 is 6-1/2 miles north and runs NW-SE.

PA 29 is 7-1/2 miles east and runs N-S while PA 663 is 3 miles west and runs NE fren Pottstown.

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The are is also served by Conrail Railroad which has track within one mile of the site along the Schuylkill River.

The Pottstown airport is a general aviation airport located about 5-1/4 miles north-west of the station, but at present it accomme-dates no scheduled commercial'or commuter flights.

Support Organizations l

In cases of an emergency at the facility, close coordination between federal, state, and local agencies is imperative to provide the responsibility necessary to ensure implementation of an i

evacuation plan.

Philadelphia Electric Company will have cate-a 2

gories of incidents defined including criteria.

for determining when protective measures should be considered and for notification of off-site support groups.

Agreement, liaison, and communications will be established with appropriate agencies that have responsi-3 bilicies for coping with emergencies.

Support agencies expected to. coordinate activities in the Limerick area are:

1.

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) 2.

Montgomery County Office of Emergency Preparedness l

3.

Chester County Office of Emergency Preparedness Service r

4.

Berks County Office of Emergency Preparedness Service 5.

Nuclear Regulation Commission (NRC) 6.

Bureau of Radiation Protection 7.

National Guard 8.

Pennsylvania State Police 9.

Local Municipalities, such as, police, fire, and others necessary to implement an evacuation plan.

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Summary of Emergency Planning to Cate Licensee Evacuation Pla3 - As a result of a request by NRC that Philadelphia Electric do an evacuation time study, the utility contracted with NUS Corporation to perform the study.

The study being done by NUS is presently in draft form and has not yet been submitted to NRC.

Other Evacuation Plans - The Pennsylvania Emergency Manage-ment Agency in conjunction with the Pennsylvania Department of Transportatien, will develop an evacuation road network and an estimate of evacuation time, for the Limerick area.

These esti=ates will be done in conjunction with the actual evacuation plans being developed at the county levels.

As is the case with other nuclear plants in Pennsylvania, evacuation tire scenarios for populations within a 2, 5,

10 and 20 mile radius of the station will be developed.

Since the first unit at Limerick does not come en line until 1985, Pennsylvania's priority for developing evacuation times for Limerick is lower than for other Pennsylvania nuclear plants such as TMI.

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4 AREA CHARACTERISTICS The area characterintics were obtained by field inspection, frem information contained in the Limerick Generating Station Environmental Statement supplied by the Licensee, and from information obtained frem the various Planning Ccmmissions of Mcntgcmery, Chester, and Berk ccunties.

Topeeraphy * (6) i As mentioned earlier, the Limerick site lies in the upper part of the region known as the Piedmont Providence.

In the area around the plant, four distinct habitats are forest, i

successional areas (urban and rural), cultivated areas and wetlands.

Commerical weedlands in the Montgomery County area of Pennsylvania occupy about 13 percent of the total county area.

A large pertion of the cultivated areas in southeastern Pennsylvania prcduces grain, hay, fruit, and vegetables.

The wetlands of the area include the Schuylkill River, smaller streams, small artificial ponds, marshes, and swamps.

The station is on the northeast side of the river at a mean elevation of 210 feet above sea level (MSL). Throughout the 1

immediate site area the land slopes upward from the river frem t

an elevatien of roughly 100 to 280 feet (MSL),

Meteore10cy *(6)

Temperature - The climate of Montgcmery and Chester counties and the southeastern portien of Berks Ccunty is characterized by

• (6) Source:

U.S. Atomic Energy Ccemission (now the Nuclear Pegulatory Commission), 1973, Environmental Statement for Limerick Generating Station.

13 1

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l warm, humid summers and moderately cold winters.

The average U

temperature of the three-county area is approximately 55 F.

i Temperatures below 0 F and above 100 F are rare; average daily maximum termperatures range from 87 F in July to 40 F in January,

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and average daily minimum tempe'ratures range frem 23 F in January and February to 65 ? in July and August.

The average annual precipitation is 45 inches and is rather uniformly -distributed i

throughout the year, with only small differences between the I

wettest and driest =enths.

Table 1 gives an average of the data j

from 1931 to 1960 frem the West Chester, Coatesville, and Phoenixville weather stations.

These weather conditions are due in large measure to the protection given by the Allegheny Mountains to the west.

Precipitation - In the pericd of December through the early part of March, part of the precipitation falls in the form of snow produced from storms that are more extensive and frequent than those occurring during the warm seasons.

Occasionally, moisture-laden storms moving along che Atlantic Seaboard produce heavy snow, creating near-blizcard conditions.

The average annual 4

I snowfall is 29.5 inches, while the record maximum annual snow-

• III fall received at Reading, according to available records, was i

58.3* (7) inches, in the winter of 1960-61.

The record minimum annual snowfall occurred during the winter of 1972-73, totalling

• III less than 6 inches.

Winds - Winds in the Limerick area are predcminantly from the NW.

The wind rose in Figure 2 shows the percentage of time I

that the wind comes from each section at the Limerick weather station.

Table 2 gives the percentage frequency of wind speeds at l

Peach Bottem, a similar site whose data can be used with substantial confidence.

• (7) Source:

U.S. Department of Commerce, 1968 Local Climatological Data.

Total depth, not water equivalent.

14 1

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TABLE 1 Ommer County cuentadopcal sammary 1931 1960' Temperature data

% m dass e

Mean Mena number of days a cepitation Mean temperature (F)3 Mens degree Maa temp Min g )*

Mean days of Month Dady Dady days. abased 9g.p 3;.y temp 0.1 m. or more

• * *Y 32*F 388 '

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man on 65*F and and precapitation above below and below Jan.

40.9 23.7 32.3 1023 5

26 3.34 5.9 6

Feb.

42.1 23.1 32.9 857 3

23 2.35 7.4 6

Mar.

51.0 30.2 40.6 784 1

20 4.13 5.5 Apr.

63.3 39.9 51.9 364 4

3.48 0.4 8

May 74.1 50.2 62.3 147 1

4.15 7

June 82.7 59.0 71.0 23 5

4.00 7

July 87.2 63.3 75.6 1

11 4.49 6

Aug.

84.9 61.3 73.3 4

7 5.07 7

Sept.

78.3 55.0 66.7 73 2

3.61 5

Oct.

67.5 43.9 55.8 309 4

3.18 0.2 5

Nov.

54.3 34.2 44.7 640 15 3.73 1.4 6

Dec.

42.3 25.1 34.1 955 3

23 3.39 4.3 6

Year 64.1 42.5 13.4 5180 26 14 113 45.42 25.1 77 dModification of Oester County P.annmg Comimamon's tabulacon fica Unstad States Weather Bureau's omczal recor.ts (averages from t. tee statacas: CsatesvWe. hoenixviDe, ar4 West Oester).

830 years of secord.

• 10 years of record.

Source:

U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (now the Nuclear Regulatory Commissicn), 1973, Environmental Statement for Li terick Generating Station.

15

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Six-month wind rose (1971), Limerick weather station No. 1; location W-ll (temporary pole), nominal 30-ft level, el.

290 MSL.

Shgded areas show percentage of time that wind ccmes frem each 10 sector, during all hcurs for which data are available.

Scurce:

U.S. Atomic Energy Ccmmission (now the Nuclear Regulatory Ccemission), 1973, Environmental Statement for Limerick Generating Station.

l i

TABLE 2 Penensage togeancy of wind synods. Peach Snroom wessher sasoon No. 2 lococon W4 taommal 320-(t level, el 688 ft MSL)

Penod: August 1967-July 1971 Turbulence Frequency (5) of weds of specmed speeds dass 1-3 mob 4-7 mph 8-12 mph 13-18 mph 19+ mph AD speeds 1

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 Il 1.1 6.1 13.0 17.2 10.4 47.7

'. t 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 O.0

0. I 2.1 7.8 9.4 19.4 3.2 6.9 10.2 8.5 0.8 29.6 0.9 Ad classes 3.3 13.7 26.0 33.6 20.5 100.0 Scurce:

U.S. Atomic Energy Ccmmission (new the Nuclear Reculatcry Ccmmission), 1973, Envircnmental Statement for Limerick Generating Station.

16 4

l

-m--y w

m er-

Surface Nater - In the Schuylkill River, there are high ficws in late winter and early spring when the snows are melting, but the highest ficws are caused by rains from hurricanes which ccca-sionally make their way inland.

In June 1972, heavy rains caused by tropical storm Agnes caused record fleeds on the Susquehanna and Schuylkill Rivers in Pennsylvania.

The peak ficw rate pro-duced by the storm has been estimated as approximately 110,000 cfs at Pcttstown, about 4 miles above t.r.c Limerick site.

Pre-4 liminary estimates are that the water level in the vicinity of the plant reached elevations between 129.5 and 130 feet above mean sea level, which are well belcw the station elevation (about i

210 feet above =si).

The highest flew previously recorded was 53,900 cfs at Pottstown in 1902.

The average annual flood flow is 21,000 cfs and the 100-year ficed ficw is computed to be 99,000 cfs.

The prchably maximum ficed flow is estimated to be 356,000 cfs.

Failure of any maximum floed flow is estimated to be 356,000 cfs.

Failure of any upstream dams would not add materially to the level of the probably maximum ficed which is calculated to be 158 feet above mean sea level.

Demograchy Demographic data was collected within the EPZ by townships and boroughs to identify pcpulations and other pertinent factors which affect evacuation.

Townships and boroughs were used as -

planning :enes; hcwever, in many instances, the planning zones were subdivided to avoid overloading of roadway networks.

When this occurred, the subzones were divided by some early identi-fiable basis to permit the assign.nent of perscns residing in these areas to a logical and definite evacuation route.

The EPZ for Limerick includes townships and boroughs in i

three counties.

Each of the 34 townships within the EPS was

)

given a letter designation for identification purposes.

Where a township was subdivided, the letter designation was suffixed with a number.

The nine boroughs were assigned alpha-numeric 17 r--

u g-9 w.-

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designations using the letter of the nearest township or town-ships, in cases where a large borough was subidivided.

Table 3 lists all the political subdivisions within the EPZ, namely counties, townships and boroughs and gives the projected 1985 population of each.

Populatien projections for 1985 in Berks County were extrapolated from census numbers for 1970 and 1977.

In Montgcmery and Chester counties, the 1985 projections

'were interpolated from the 1977 and 1990 census numbers.

Table 4 lists all the schools in the three county area along with their locations and associated enrollment.

Likewise hospitals and nursing homes in the EPZ are listed by county in Table 5 and Table 6, respectively, along with their location and associated populations.

Table 7 lists all other potential population gathering points by county and location.

This list includes such facilities as prisons, parks, campgrounds, and recreation areas.

Fiugers 3, 4,

5, and 6 present quadrant maps that depict the location of schcols, hospitals, nursing homes as listed in the above tables.

Key numbers in tables refer to the acccmpanying location en the maps.

18 1

1 1

s.

TABLE 3 SUMMAPf OF 1985 PROJECTED POPULATIOli OF THE PLANNING ZONES PCPULATION CENTER SUB-ZONE POPULATION Mentgomerv County Townships Douglass R-1, R-2 5022 Lir.erick C-1...C-4,C-7 5769 Lower Frederick E-1 2454 Lcwer Pottsgrove M-1, M-2 7458 Lower Providence A-1...A-5 7467 Lcwer Sulford H-1 3738 Marlborough F-1 1251 New Hanover P-1,P-2 4056 Perkicmen I-1,I-2 2907 Skippack K-1...K-4 5226 Upper Frederick D-1,D-2 1437 Upper Hanover Q-1 60 l

Uccer Pottscrove N-1 2739 Up'er Providence 3-1..

3-3 9999 p

Upper Salford G-1 1632

iest Pottsgreve 0-1 1446 Borouchs

.Collegeville B-5 3405 i

Green Lane F-2 690 Pct:stown M-3...M-7; N-2...N-4; O-2...O-4 27720 Reyersford C-5,C-6 4956 Schwenksville I-3 876 Trappe 3-4 2202 Montgomery County Total:

102,510 Chester County Tcwnships Charlestown CK-1 348 East Coventry Z-1..

2-3 4470 East Nunt=eal CE-1 471 East Pikeland CG-1...CG-3 4470 19 i

s 4

TABLE 3 ( cont ' d)

Chester' County Centinued i

East Vincent CB-1...CB-3 4335 North Coventry Y-1...Y-3 7326 Schuylkill CJ-1, CJ-2 4770 i

South Coventry CA-1 1089 Warwick CF-1 1203 West Pikeland-CH-1 1650

.st Vincent CC-1...CC-3 1914 Upper Uwchlan CD-1 27 Boroughs Phcenixville-CJ-3...CJ-7 13869 Spring City C3-4 3759 Chester County Total:

49,701 3

Berka County Townsl.igs Amity T-1...T-3 5277 Colebrookdale V-1,V-2 3750 Douglass S-1...S-3 3912 i

Earl U-l 1338 Union X-1,X-2 2286 Washington W-1 498 Boroughs _

Boyertewn V-3...V-5 2604 Serks County Total:

19,665 1

s 4

J 20 4

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l TABLE 4 SCHCOLS WITHIN A 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE LIMERICK SITE MCNTGOMERY CCUNTY PEPKICMEN VALLEY SCHCOL CISTRICT XEY SCHCOL LOCATICN ENROLLMENT 5-1 Kulp Elementary Perikomen ?ap.

944 S-2 Collegeville-Trappe Elementar/

Collegeville 463 5-3 Skippu:k Elementary Skippuck Twp.

369 S-4_

Perkicmen Valley Sr. High Perkicmen Twp.

944 S-5 Perkicmen Valley Middle Collegeville 444 POTTSTOWN SCHCOL DISTRICT XEY SCHCOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-6 Edgewood Elementary

.ottstown 273 S-7 Franklin Elementary Pottstown 229 S-3 Jefferson Elementary Pottstown 388 S-9 Ruperr Elementary Pottstown 209 S-10 West End Elementary Pottstown 309 S-ll Pottstcwn Senior High Pcttstown 1050 S-12 Pctrstown Jr. High Pottstown 571 SPRING-FORD AREA SCHCOL DISTRICT l

KEY SCHCOL LCCATION ENROLLMENT S-13 Consolidated Elementary Collegeville 147 S-14 Limerick Elementary Royersford 485 S-15 Mont Claro Upr. Providence ?ap.

185 S-16 Spring City.

Limerick Twp.

268 S-17 Oaks Upr. Providence Twp.

409 S-13 Royersford Royersford 333 S-19 Spring-Ford Area Sr. High Royersford 950 S-20 Spring-Ford Area Jr. High Royersford 855 METHALTON SCHCOL DISTRICT KEY SCHOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-21 Audubon Elementary Lwr. Providence ?ap.

420.

i.

21

5 TABLE 4

(

BOYERTCWN SCHOOL DISTRICT KEY

-SCHOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-22 Conge Elementary Douglass ?ap.

92 S-23 Gilbertsville Elementary, Douglass Twp.

314 S-24 New Hanover Upr. Frederick Elem.New Eanover Twp.

676 S-25 Junior High East New Hanover Twp.

816 i

PRIVATE SCHOOLS i

KEY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1

S-26 Hill School 194 S-27 St. Allysius School 512 S-28 St. Peter's 103 S-29 St. Pius' 684 5-30 Windereft 95 S-31 St. Gabriel's 222 S-32 Sacred Heart 277 S-33 Kripaul Ashran N/A S-34 St. Eleano r 's 256 S-35 St. Mary's 183 S-3' St. Phillip Neri 290 S - 3 ".

Franconia Day Schcol N/A' S-3J New Life Boy's Ranch 55 S-39 'Jennview Christian 596 S-40 Lower Providence Kindergarten and Nursery School N/A CNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES KEY SCHOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-41 Norrheast Bible. Institute Upr. Frederick ?ap.

N/A S-42 Ursinus Collegeville N/A 4

CHESTER CCCNTY l

PHOENIXVILLE KEI SCHOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-43 ~ East Pikeland Elementary '

Schuylhill Twp.

575 East Pikeland Twp.

370 S-44 Schuylhill Elementarv S-45 Mason Street Elementary Phoenixville Two.

125 S-46 Second Avenue Elementary Phcenixville Twp.

160 S-47 3arkley Elementary

?heenixville Twp.

400 22 4

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PHOENIXVILLE KEY SGOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-48 Phoenixville Senior High Schuylhill Twp.

725 S-49 Phoenixville Junior High Schuylkill Twp.

950 S-50 Norchern Chester County Schuylkill Twp.

500 Vocational-Technical S-51 Liberty Forge School (Special Education Center)

Schuylki;l Twp.

N/A CWEN J.

RCBERTS SCHOOL DISTRIC'"

KEY SCHCOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-52 Warwick Elementary School Warwick, Twp.

212 S-53 French Creek Elementary East Nantmeal Twp.

313 S-54 East Coventry Elementary East Coventry Twp.

232 S-55 Vincent Elementary Eas: Vincent Twp.

397 S-56 West Coventry Elementary North Coventry Twp.

591 4

S-57 Cwen J. Roberts High South Coventry Twp.

1236 S-58 Cwen J.

Roberts Middle South Coventry Twp.

1067 PRIVATE SGCOLS KEY SCHCOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-59 St. Anne School 350 S-60 St. Basi'. Schcol 150 S-61 Sacred heart School 125 S-62 Holy Trinity School 100 S-63 St. Mary 150 4

S-64 Valley Forge Church Academy 120 UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES KEY SGOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-65 Valley Forge Christian College y*jg BERKS COUN'"Y DANIEL 3 CONE SGOOL DISTRICT KEY SGCOL LOCATICN ENROLL.E NT i

'i S-66 Amity Elementary School Amity Wp.

600 S-67 Monocacy Elementary Unicn Twp.

200 23 4

n TABLE 4' (Cont'd)

BOYERTCWN SCHOOL DISTRICT KEY SCHOOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT S-68 Colebrockdale Elementary Colebrockdale Twp.

367 S-69 Boyertown Elementary Scyertcwn 709 S-70 Pine Forge Elementary Dcuglas Twp.

277 S-71 Scyertown Senicr High Boyertown 1645 S-72 Intermediate Unit Special Boyertown N/A Education School PRIVATE SCHOOLS KEY SCHCOL LOCATION ENROLLMENT N/A S-73 Fine Forge Elementary School S-74

?ine Forge Academy N/A S-75 Wayside Chapel N/A S-76 Montesseri Academy of Pennsylvania N/A Note:

Only the location of county cperated schools are depicted on the maps in Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6.

J l

24

.i TABLE 5 HOSPITALS WI~'HIN A TEN-MILE RADIUS OF '"3E LIMERICK SITE MONTGOMERY COUNTY KEY HOSPITAL LOCATION CAPACITY 3-1 Pottstown Memorial Medical Pottstown 275 Center Sovo H-2 Eagleville Hospital and Lower Provi-126 Rehabilitation Center dence Twp.

CHESTER COUNTY KEY HOSPITAL LOCATION

_CAPTCITY H-3 Pennhurst State Hospital East Vincent 1,000 Twp.

E-4 Phcenixville Hospital Phcenixville 139 BERKS COtRITY KEY HOSPITAL LCCATICN CAPACI""?

There are no hospitals within a 10-mile radius.

25

I l

4 s

TABLE 6 NURSING HCMES WITHIN A TEN-MII.E RADIUS OF THE LLMERICK SITE MONTGOMERY COUNTY KEY NURSING HOME LOCATICN CAPACITY N-1 Leader Nursing and Pottstown 159 Rehabilitation Center Boro.

N-2 Manatawny Manor and Pottstown 99 Residential Care Boro.

N-3 Frederick Mennonite Mcme Upper 143 Frederick Twp.

N-4 Montgomery County Geriatric Upper Provi-600 and Rehabilitation Center dence Twp.

i l

CHESTER COLTY KEY NURSING HOME LOCATION CAPACITY N-5 Coventry Manor South Coven-41 try Twp.

N-6 Mary Hill Rest Haven Schuylkill 17 Twp.

N-7 Phoenixville Manor Phoenixville 135 N-3 Manatawny Manor East Coven-100 try Twp.

BERKS CCUNTY KEY NURSING HCME LOCATION CAPACITY t

N-9 Douglassville Ecme Union Twp.

40 N-10 River Road Ecme Union Twp.

25 I

1 26 i

j l

i TABLE 7 POPULATION GATHERING POINTS (NOT OTHERWISE CLASSIFIED) WITHIN A TEN-MILE RADIUS OF THE LdMERICK SITE MONTGOMERY COUNTY KEY NAME LOCATION Parks and Camp Grounds 0-1 Lakeview Amusement Park Limerich Twp.

0-2 Evansburg State Park Skippack Twp. and Lower Providence Twp.

0-3 Lower Perkiomen Valley Upper Providence ?ap.

County Park 0-4 Sunrise Mill County Park Limerick Twp.

(Under Development) 0-5 Upper Perkiomen Valley Upper Frederick Twp.

County Park 0-6 Upper Schuylkill Valley Upper Providence Twp.

County Park Governmental Facilities 0-7 Eastern State Game Farm Limerick Tap.

0-3 Montgomery County Geriatic Upper Providence ?ap.

and Rehabilitation Center 0-9 Montgomery County Prison Lower Providence ?ap.

Farm 0-10 Pennsylvania State Correc-Skippack Tap.

tional Institution SERKS COUNTY KEY NAME LOCATION Parks and Camp Grounds 0-11 Schlegel's Grove Colebrockdale ?dp.

0-12 Pottstown Community Center Earl Tap.

27

TABLE 7 (Cont'd)

KEY NAME LOCATION 0-13 French Creek State Park Union Twp.

0-14 Church of God Camp Ground Colebrockdale Twp.

0-15 Ironstone Campsite Douglass Twp.

0-16 YMCA Camp Couglass Twp.

0-17 Camp Shilo (Special Children)

Douglass Twp.

NOTE:

Facilities lisred in the table are not depicted on Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6.

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EVAC'JATION NETWORK LIMERICK Evacuation Time Assessment Stucy i

%6e J a*4 ened.duareem anGupg 7 l

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CONCEPT OF EVACUATICU The concept of evacuation in this assessment of the Limerick evacuation times assumes that everyone in the 10-mile radius will be evacuated outside of that 10-mile radius.

There is no assess-ment of the time to evacuate within the two-or the five-mile radius.

It is assumed that all people that live within the 10-mile radius will be evacuated along a specified route known to them.

The evacuation time will include the time frcm notification until the last vehicle crosses the 10-mile radius.

Notification of Evacuation There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation.

One event is the direct notification of public agencies, schools, major employees and other locations of large population concentrations.

The second event is the dissemination of the evacuation warning to the general population.

Btoh of these events must include instructicas regarding the sectors to be evacuated.

The first event is assumed to be acccmplished by telephone from the Emergency operating Center to the affected group.

Ideally the second event would be implemented by a public warning i

i system, which would combine an accustical warning system by sirens or horns, supplemented by instructions over selected radio and T.V. Broadcast stations.

In the particular site, no advanced system of this type is in place.

Therefore, the predominant mode of this notification is by use of vehicles and helicopters with mounted loudspeakers.

A specified message frem these vehicles would indicate that an evacuation has been rscommended and to turn on their radios for 29

..--r w

.e 4

additional information.

Radio stations must be provided with complete, accurate and current information.

They should have prior zone descriptions and repeat recommended routing information.

They shculd have phone numbers people can call should these people require special evacuation assistance or additional information.

Public Resoonse Time There can be up to four activities preceding the evacuation from the home which car be stahistically distributed in time:

(1) Receive warning; (2) Leave work;~ (3) Travel home; and, (4) Evacuate home.

Each of the response times may have different distributions, depending upon the particular scenario being assessed.

Receict of Notification - Receipt of notification is assumed to approach a normal distribution in time; therefore, the accumulated probability approaches an "S"

curve.

This distribution can be approximated by three straight lines.

One line, passing through the 50 percent, 16 percent and 84 percent distributions, represents two time increments.

One straight line frem zero to 16 percent represents one time in-rement.

The third straight line from 84 to 100 percent represents one time increment.

It is assumed that the time increments are five minutes, so the total time for receipt of notification is 20 minutes.

This distribution means that 16 percent will have been notified within the first five minutes, 50 percent will have been notified in ten minutes, 84 percent will have been notified in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will have been notified in 20 minutes.

(See Volume I for more detail.)

30 i

t

Departure Frem Place of Work - Departure from the place of work is assumed to approach a normal distribution curve in the same manner as receipt of notification.

Distribution is approximated by three straight lines and four five-minute time increments.

The distribution assumes that 16 percent will depart from their place of work in five minutes, 50 percent will depart in ten cinctes, 84 percent w;11 depart in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will depart in 20 minutes (see Volume I for more detail.)

Travel From Work to Heme - The time of travel to the home approaches normal distribution of time in the same manner as the two previous responses.

Under normal conditions this distribution assumes that 16 percent will' travel to home in five minutes, 50 percent in 10 minutes, 84 percent in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will travel to hcme in 20 minutes.

This distribution is expanded in certain scenarios, specifically that of the adverse weather scenario (see Volume I for more detail).

Departure From Ecme - Departure frem home also approaches a normal distribution in time and the accumulated probability approaches and "S"

curve.

The distribution is approximated by three straight lines in the same manner as the above three responses.

The activity is distributed over eight five-minute periods for a total of 40 minutes.

The distribution indicates that eight percent will depart from h'ome in the first five minutes,16 percent in ten minutes, 33 percent in 15 minutes, 50 percent in 20 minutes, 67 percent in 25 minutes, 84 percent in 30 minutes, 92 percent 12 35 minutes, and 100 percent will have departed home within 40 minutes' (see Volume I for further details.)

31 S

4 Evacuation Link / Node Network The evacuation routes for each centroid has been manually established and coded for comcuter evaluation.

Figures 7, 8,

9, and 10 indicate the coded network and the evacuation route fer each -centroid.

Table 8 contains the network descriptiens.

The table contains two node numbers for each end of a given link, the distance between nodes in miles, the assumed speed for that link, j

its total capacity in vehicles per hour in the direction of evac-uation, and the identiry of the roadway.

For example, the first link in Table 9 is from Node 11 to Nede 201.

The distance is 0.10 miles, the assigned speed is 35 miles per hour, the capacity is 1,500 vph, and the roadway seg=ent is en Egypt Road.

The values assigned to each link represent the best judgement of these factors considering readway gecmetry, width, terrain and other factors.

Many of the evacuation zones are rather large and may have several centroids.

These centroids associated with population centers and are located to provide for a logical evacuation of the zone.

The capacities established for each link are not the capacities that could be expected under normal circumstances.

The evacuation of a ten-mile area has all the vehicles headed in the same direction, with the possible exception of emergency vehicles coming into the area.

Because of the directional flow and controlled routings, lane capacities are generally larger tlum could be expected under normal circumstances.

Another important factor that contributes to smoother flow and greater capacities is that all drivers of vehicles on any roadway segment are of one accord and are headed for the same location.

Generally, they are probably the most seasoned, experienced of the drivers in a household.

All drivers know that they must evacuate the area and cross the ten-mile zone.

32

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3 EV ACUATION ACUTE was EVACUATION NETWORK LIMERICK Evacuation Time AS$eSSment Study

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EV ACUA7?CN ACUTE w tL.( 5 EVACUATION NETWORK LIMERICK Evacuation Time Assessment Study aujadJ~u nauaeso l

i n.

TABLE 8 NETWORK DESCRIPTICN 4E:i C E D!3:

iD

1. CE 2:5*

5.:ED

.4P ROACWAY IDENTITY

0.1 I!.0 1500 Egypt Road

..: :. A)

.)

3NG Ridge Pike Road 13

; 0.:9 M.0 3000 Ridge P' *;1 Road

. :t 3.!0

.!.0

!!*3 Twp.

R.

id8 11

.3 0.:

I!.0 1500 Sa 345

.' :.4

!.]

1500 US 422 M :."

?!.0 1:00 US 422 4

'J..

ii.0 1500 SR 29 20 3!

..oc H.0 1500 Egypt Road M 9 4'

9.)

4000 Schuylkill Exprassway 2'

.30 h.0 400c Schuylkill Expressway

.2

.7 0..:

..)

1 40 Ramp to Schuylkill Exp.

24

c.K 2:.0 1:00 US 422

'3

0. x

.4. 0 1:00 US.422

.5

}.. :

...G 1 00 Ramp to Schuylkill Exp.

• ?

.d

.e.;

1:0e Ramp to US 422 Bypass h

.' :.20 30 4 I';0 Fruitville Rd.

i- 0.7%

?!.2

!!e.

Swamp Pike v..

.. 2 3.:

25.0 1:?0 Swamp Pike a

MO

.".0 1000 Salford Rd.

1:

IS G.i0 I!.]

D0 Gravel Pike i?

0..;

.)

10C0 Snyder Rd.

3 0.!'

II.c 1500 Gravel Pike 4.:

...)

!!c0 Gravel Pike Is ii *a H.s 130 Gravel Pike

'7 1000 Salford Rd.

2i

. 1 3.

H.,

1:0v Gravel Pike i;

4..')

4.0 1:00 Gravel Pike e

X J o.1 H.0

D0 Gravel Pike 4

0.70 H..

15G0 Patato Rd.

4:

." a

0. ?

M.0 1:00 Perkiomendile Rd.

47 o.:.

.0

!;0 SR 113 34

- r.

.30 2.0 1:00 SR 29 4:

54 :.00 H.0 1500 SR 113

• e 44 1.o0

!!.)

500 SR 29

'7

'4 0.30 3!.;

1500 SR 73 (Skippack Pike) 4:

!G 1.30 I!.

1:00 SR 73 (Skippack Pike) 50

!! 1.:?

15.0

500 SR 73 (Skippack Pike) 5.

3~ 0.o; I!.3 ISO SR 73 (Skippack Pike)

.i 0. M H.]

100 Bergeys Mill Rd.

!4 51 1.30 H.0 ISC SR 113 is 0.S JC.J 10C0 Skippack Creek Rd. (Twp.

R.

399)

"a D 00; 2;.0 IX0 Skippack Creek Rd. (Twp.

R.-

3 9 9 )

!3 at: J.M

!!. )

JX-)

Ridge Pike Road 19 20 2.49 S.;

4000 US 422 Bypass 30 31 }.;0 D.;

4000 US 422 Bypass si

4;

3. 4

'.J 4 00 US 422 Bypass 3:

414 ).30

..]

1500 Yost Rd.

I 34

0. ]

H.0 1500 SR 663

4 20 :.::

.' !. 0 130 SR 663 33 i

TABLE 8 (Continued) a0DE =0:E 3137 i:E:.

AP C E ::37 3 PED GP ROADWAY IDENTITY M

27 :.30 E. ',

2000 US 422 (High St. ) La 146 so

$7 C.13

.i..

500 Hanover St. (LR 284) 37 si 0.;0 1500 36 :.00 35.0 3000 Hanover St. (SR 663)/US 422 (High St).

W 9 ?.;0 34 1:00 Hanover St. (SR 663) 37

20 5.a0 E.0 1500 SR 663 70 3. 50 H.0 1500 SR 663 7;

3 0.30 H.0 1:00 SR 663 73 74 0.70 25.0 1:00 N. Hanover St.

74

0 90

2. '

1:00 N. Hanover St.

7:

3.;0 35.0 1:0c Manger's Mill Rd.

'6 v.70 3!.O 1500 4:0 0.20 20.0 1500 Manger's Mill Rd./ Ramp to SR 100

~

7' F9 0.10

00 LR 284 SR 100 76

.c

..'0

n..)

co Farmington Ave.

7'

!. 30 n.0 1:00 90 Ti

..a0 M.y 1:00 Farmington Ave.

Hanover St. (LR 284) il n

.50

f.)

!00 3

33 0.50 n.9

00 LR 46001 33

'4 J.'9

'.0

500 LR 46001 34 M ).30 H.:

30 LR 46001 LR 06103 et 4r; -).30 M.g

c it

!? 1.30 n.0 Koo US 422 (High St. )

US 422 (High St.)

J7 H ;.f0 M. '.

3003 US 422 Benjamin Franklin H9y.

d u 3.30 50.;

4000 6

J.

3.10 H..'

500 SV. vip Pike 6

4 0 90 i:.0

. ;:a 02 0.ec n.0

c0 Swamp Pike /SR 663 Swamp Pike h

45

.70 E.;

500 SR 663

<! 4.20 15.0

00 SR 663 u 0.40 15 0

90 SR 663 44

i 1.10 35.0

OO 95

'! 0.10 H.,

1:00 Ward Rd.

it

J.30 M.0 150 417 :.70 H.0 1500 SR 73 /(Congo Rd.

SR 73

~7 i ;. 0 n0 1MQ

?S 45 ;.00 20.0 1500 100 2.30 H.0

!!co Ramp to SR 100/SR 73 SR 100 09

3.40 H.0

500 SR 73

'.00

).70 E.,

1500 3:

4 1.00 H.;

1:00 SR 100

-02 2 3 ;.40 H.)

130 Congo Niantic Rd.

'Ja we 2.30 S.0 4000 US 422/ Benjamin Franklin

.0

J

2. 0

%.0 4000 US 422 Bypass US 422/ Benjamin Franklin W4 422 0.10 N.?

4000 LR 06102

07 1;; 1.30 H0 1 00 SR 562

.06

M 010 n.)

1:00 SR 562

.99 1:3 ;.00 H.0 1:00 SR 562

}

.:s 1.!:

H.0 1500 SR 652

1 1:* 0.40 M.0 1:00 US 412

.;; 0.?0 U.C 4c00 SR 662

13

5

.00 M. -)

100

.14

..: 2.70

n..

4000 US 422 n i 1.40 H0 1:00 SR 662 JR 642

..a

.;; 0.30 n..;

500 34

TABLE 8 (Continued)

ACE CE MST

!?ED

1. C E 3I3!

3 FED 0/.P ROACWAY IDENTITY 2:3 '.. ;0 H.0

00 SR 562

.;3 117 0.10 H.0 1:00 SR 562

0 30 H.0 1

00 SR 652

'"-M H.0 1500 SR 73 H2

41. ;.50 H.0 1M0 LR 284

4 1H 0.30 H.0 1500 SR 100

.H 15 0 00 H.0 i!00 SR 100

.:s 215. 30 H.J 1500 SR 100

7

4 1.40 H.0

!00 SR 73 2 J.10 15.0 1:00 Pawling M.

.3.

3. :.00

!.0 1:00 SR 724

3.

? :.00 H.0

!!00 SR 724

3.

105 i.40 10.0 4 00 US 422 Bypass

'33

34 0.20 H.0 1

00 LR 15131

34 401

.20 H.0 100 LR 15131

.H

'. : 14 H.0 1:00 SR 100

.3:

130 ).30 H.0 1:00 SR 724 3'

13:..e 50.0 4000 US 422 Bypass da 13:

.3 H.0 1:00 SR 724 i

137 ;.30

%.0 4000 tc8 0.M

.0 1500 US 422 Bypass / Ramp to SR l'0 0

.4

33 0.30 H.0 100 143 0.40 H.0 190 SR 724/SR 663 3

13;. 10

!0.0 4000 US 422 Bypass 14:

416 2 20 H.0 1:00 SR 724 41 4:0 '. 00 35.0 1500 3R 663 144 145

'.40 H.0

00 SR 23 si 154 :.M i!.0 1 00 SR 23

.4 14: ' 50 H.0 1:00 SR 724 47 148 2.20 H.0 1:00 SR 724

4

63 ;.50 H.0 100 SR 724 44 1 D 0.20 H.0 1500 SR 100 10 173 :.30 H0 1500 SR 100

.!I Idi

.4 I.0

500 Twp.

R.

512 144 1.20 H.0 190 SR 100 G

,0. 0.40, H.0

00 Pughtown M.

154 15: 0.70 H.0 1:00 SR 23 I C 0.30 H.0 1:00 I!6 :.30 H.0

Q0 SR 100/SR 23

6 175 0.20 H.0

!!00 SR 100/SR 23

!7 17! 0.00 H.0

. 00 Countryville Rd. off Hwy. 23 1:3 157 i.!0 H.0

!00 Countryville M. off Hwy. 23

i 1:2

-). M H. O.

1 00 Pughtown M.

10 16; 0.!0 H.0 1500 SR 724 151 17!

'.!0 H.0 1500 SR 724 lo; 160. 50 H.0 100 SR 724

.oi it: s.!G 25.0 00 SR 724

34

33 ;.40 H.0 1 00 Penrd crst M.

la!

1:1 ;.30 H.

1:00 Twp.

R.

513

.n 13: 0.30 H.0 100 Twp.

R. 561

• 7 1:3 ).30 10.0

• 000 hp.

R.

514 h3 139 ).30 H.0

!00 SR 100 i

.si

S 2.70 H.0 1500 SR 100 35 i

l i

i 4

y

Table 8 (Continued) 40 E 90 E DIST 3pe.-]

CAP N00E 3IST SPED CAP ROADWAY IDENTITY 171 227 0.10 35.0 1500 TWp.

R.

464

7

s7 1.:0 30.3 1000 Twp.

R.

514

3 143 0.30 2.0 500 SR 100 174

17 3.30 35.0 1!C0 SR 23 17:

74 2.!0

.n.0 1:00 SR 23

76

'7 0.30

!!.)

1:00 Township Ling Rd.

77

• 29 1.73 n.0

!!00 SR 23 73 i?' :.50 M.0 1:00 150 :.40 H.0 1500 SR 724/Hareshill Rd.

17?

30 0.70 2.0 1500 SR 113 3C

31 1.4 H. ;

1500 SR 113 SR 113 th ISO 0.30 35.0 1500 SR 113

i2 153 0.00 E..

1:C; SR 113

.=00

, s:-

4

1....s 4..s SR 113 164

.2) 1.00 H.J 1500

37 4

3 0.30 2.c 1 00 SR 113 SR 19 IS

!? 0.;0 H.

1:00

.29 23 1.30 H..

1:00 SR 23

0

?! 2.30 H..

500 SR 29

.91

4

.:J H.]

1500 SR 29 1:

3 1.3c H.;

1500 Whitehorse Rd.

2

?3

24 ).50

%.0 1 00-Whitehorse Rd.

174

.a 1.40 H.0

!!OC

3 0.00 35.0 1

00 Egypt Rd./SR 29

.?:

1 0.00 20.0

!00 Ramp to Schuylkill Exp.

9:

0. 2's 50..

4000 Schuylkill Exp.

77

1 :.60

.1 4 00 Schuylkill Exp.

2 419 0.30 H.0 300C SR 100 4v 25 3 20 E. ;

i 00 SR 113

+c I:3 1.70 3!.0 1:00 Twp.

R.

470 a

40; 03 3.5)

H..*

1500 LR 06154 43 404 0.!0

%.3 1:00 LR 06101 44 40: 0.70 K.]

1:00 LR 06102 4:

46 0. 0 E.0

00 SR 06155 404

3 0.30 H.0 1500 LR 06102 47

0.:0 H.J 1500 Countryclub Rd.

48

&;9 0.;0 n.J 1:00 LR 06103 44 1:0 1 10 H.0 1500 LR 06104 410

4 0.30 35.0 1500 LR 06026 411 27 ) 90 n.0 1:00 LR 46191 41 413 0.7*

25.0 1500 Firestene Rd.

413 na 3.:0 2.0

00 Yost Rd.

414 30

3. 0 2).0 1:00 Ramp to US 422 Bypass 41:

13 0.30 10.0 1000 7: 0.70

!!.0 1500 Snyder Rd./Mangerly Mill Rd. Ramp als

41 0.00 20.0 1

0C Ramp e17 U2 0.20 n.;

1500 Hoffmansville Rd.

Als is J.30 n.;

00 SR 73 4t?

133 0.;0

.0 1

00 Ramp to SR 724 40 73 0.30 H.0 1:00 4:1 3.;0 20.J 1:00 SR 100/R4 4 to SR 100 42:

i n 1.00 E.J 1:00 SR 100 C:

14 0 10 35.J

(00 Ramp 423 424 0 10

.]

1 00 3 ridge St.

36 i

TABLE 8 (Continued)

E UE FEU

// 3C;E DIST PED c;#

ROADWAY IDENTITY SR 29 o

tu 0,:0

.3

.,no SR 73 (Skippack Pike)

'i:

30E 7d0..

h.0.

1:c0 Cantroic Connector 101 109 0.00

.;5.0 1500 Centroid Connector

!0' 11 3.70 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector 503

0.40

.0

00 Centroid Connector 50

3 0.4;

.0 1:00 Centroid Connector C5 13 10 15.0 190 Centroid Connector

!C-

s..a 1:.0

00 Centroid Connector

05 2-

0. +;

15.0

!!CC Centroid Connector 50-23 1.e0 15.0

90 Centroid Connector

M

0.40 15.0 1:00 Centreid Connector

!! 2.30

.0

500 Centroid Connector 41; 0.70

.0 1:00 Centroid Connector s 1.:0

.0 1000 Centroid Connector fi2 30 1 20

.0 1

cc fii 30 1 00 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector Centroid Connector

0.:s 15.J i:00 Centroid Connector T

1.3

.0

O0 Centroid Connector

'i

t.. O 1!.0 1:00 Centrcid Connector M:

3; 1.3:

.0

G00 Centroid Connector M0 21

0. e?

15.0

co Centroid Connector

2; 35 0.3;

.0

00 Centroid Connector C

F

?. '

15.0 2:00 Centroid Connector

!:3 40 0.:'

15.]

509 Centroid Connector G

4; J.20 15.0

QC Centroid Connector

t

0.20 15.0

00 Centroid Connector 44 ).50 15 0

00

I 4: 2.5 15.0 l'Oc Centroid Connector Centroid Connector li

~ ;.E 15 0

00 Centroid Connector 50 U

.20 15.0 1500 III

).?0 15.0 1000 Centroid Connector Centroid Connector U.

50 0.a; 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector

32 54 0.!0 15.0 1:00 535

!S 0.70 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector Centroid Connector I3s 63 0.70 15.0 1'00 Centroid Connector i37 22 0.30

.0

00 Centroid Connector 134

0.10

.J 130 Centroid Connector GP

$8 0.00 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector 140

s 0. 0 15 0 1:00 Centroid Connectar

$41 71 0.00 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector

!2:

75 0.30 15 0 1s0 Centroid Connector id?

73 0.;0 15.0

00 94 il ;.:0 15 0 1500 Centroid Connector

!a5 30 0.40 15.0

00 Centroid Cor*n.;ctor M

34 -s.30 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector fi~

37 0.30 15.0 ISO Centroid Connector

!'i 3a 0.00 15.0 100 Centroid Connector 5'i 32 0 00

!:.0 1:00 Centroid Connector fie

• 2 1 00 -

15 0

no Centroid Connector Centroid Connector P3 :.00

.0 1:00 Centroid Connect.ar i::

?! ).30 15.0 1500 37 T'

9 TABLE 8 (Continued)

-10fE WCE 'II!

SPED M E E DIST

!?EC W

ROADWAY IDENTITY

!!3 C 0.:0

.0 1:N Centroid Connector

!!4 102 9.4 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector t'

104 0. h

.0

500 Centroid connector de 100 0.;0 15.0 1 00 Centroid Connector

!!7 1:0 1.I;

5.0 1:00 Centroid Connector dis 1:3 0.:0 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector

!D 1.2 0.:

15.J 1500 Centroid Connector

• 0

e bi) 15.7

500 Centroid Connector du I s 0."

15.0

20 Centroid Connector

'o2 1:'

.0 1:00 Centroid Connector ni

;JO 15.0 150J Centroid Connector fii 122 0...

.0 190 Centroid Connector 123

!. !?

15.0 1500 Centroid Connector 10

)...

15.J 1500 Centroid Connector ici 14 0.2 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector v

d... J.

15.0 1500 Centroid Connector ih 13 J.3a 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector 13I 0N

!!.0 1500 Centroid Connector 13: 0.: -

15.0

LO Centroid Connector 14! ) 20 15.J

!!00 Centroid Connector 4

l'4 04*

!!.J 130 Centroid Connector

'd 144 0. x

• S.0 d60 Centroid Connector, i ':

127 ).3) 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector

!!8

.+.

15..

1500 Centroid Connector f5 15 0.D

,d. 0 1500 Centroid Connector isc :.22

.5.5 dec Centroid Connector O

164 J. 4.-

.0 1:00 Centroid Connector wi

60 0.n

.:.0

M0 Centroid Connector I.'

s 0.ov

!.0 1 00 Centroid Connector Ise 1.39 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector I

a 169 1.79 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector "i!

171 0N 15.0

!00 Centroid Connector f3o 172 0.3',

15.0 N00 Centroid Connector

.'3 7 174 0.70 15.0 I!C0 Centroid Connector 29 176 0.40 15.0 1:00 Centroid Connector M+

179 0 20 i!.0 120 Centroid Connector 50 131 3.30

.0 1 00 Centroid Connector

?!

134 J.!0 d.0 1500 Centroid ;'onnector Fi 407 J.50 d.0 MOO Centroid Connector I

fia 191 0.30 d.0 100 Centroid Connector D!

190 0 0C d.0

M0 Centroid Connector a

"s 192 ; JG d.0 130 Centroid Connector 59?

id9 0.:

3.3

!00 Centroid Connector li9 38 0.W d.0

!!00 Centroid Connector 54 137 2.20

.!.0 100 Centroid Connector A

194 J.30 15.0 130 Centroid Connector 38 re--

y-3 w--

w-

---e

,,w-y, w-w-

y-

--w w

w

--w-

.f i

l 1

)

Table 9 indicates the vehicles en each link.

The nucher of vehicles is determined by the population to be evacuated and is based upon the assumption that each vehicle will evacuate

'3.0 people.

It has been observed in other actual evacuations that about 99 percent of the evacuees leave by private automobile.

Therefore, this is a conservative assumption that all people are to be evacuated by automobilu.

The number of vehicles on each link is a summation of all the vehicles from the different cen-troids that use any specific link of roadway.

Table 10 describes the evacuation route with a link-nede description by centroid.

This table gives the numbers of each node through which each evacuation route passes.

Table 9 de-scribes each link in this evacuation route and Table'9 indicates the number of vehicles on each link.

Directional Flow - All network routings will operate as two-way facilities.

In the case of two-lane roadway, the cutbound lane is for evacuation with the inbcund lane used for emergency vehicles.

A three-lane facility assumes two evacuacion lanes and cne inbound lane.

A fcur-lans f acility assumes two evacuation lanes and two emergency lanes.

Travel Speeds - Speeds were assigned to each link depending on the character of the roadway.

Freeway speeds were assigned at 50 m.p.h. with rarp speeds at 20 m.p.h.

For two lane road-ways, State Highways were assigned at 35 m.p.h. and 30 m.p.h.

for roadways of lesser quality.

Scme downtown streets in Potts-town were astigned speeds of 25 m.p.h.

Centroid connectors were considered as local streets and assigned a speed of 15 m.p.h.

Capacities - Capacities were assigned to the evacuation network to reflect emergency conditions with traffic ficwing in one directien, occasional emergency vehicles opposing the traffic ficw and problem areas controlled by special traffic features.

Under these conditions the follcwing capacities were assigned.

39

D"*]D

• ]D f' 3

\\

o a Ju e JuuS a

TABLE 9 VEHICfJ:S CN EATHI2NK Normal Weekday A

B A

B Node Node Veh.

Node Node Veh.

15 30 45 54 51 1129 11 001 700

'6

!7 12 202 1369 go 17 257 13 202 30 53 412 136 t4 226 14e 59 30 400 15 214 34-30 41 2635 1>

17 1947 61 141 3 33

!?

CS 212s 62 414 fi9 li 194 1300 e3 34

472 20 19" 273:

64 90

472 21

00 64:3 25 37 1473

'i7 17?3 se 67 1o42 23 197 155;

, 27 as 1473

4 734 a

84 1642 Is 1867 44 69 1337 196 17?3 3;

140 1937 59

'00 70 33 12*2

5 29 400 1

70 1~22 39 13s*

7; 74 740 30 29 992 74 415 740 31 37 30 75 76 1333 3*

39 1134 73 77 o!3 33 34 129 7:

420 1470 34 40 1714

7 408 713 3

34 915 73

?9 1470 34 33 1163 79 75 730 a

to 20 S0 79 730 38 32 116a al se 700 39 34 1:3:

82 93

!00 40 203 1944 83 34 500 41 42 544 64 35 792 4

204 544 85 402 932 43 205 1244 9e 97 2H3 44 400 949 37 38 3212 4:

54 969 38 104 3212 44 44 54 9 39 90 1Ti2 l

47 48 292 90 71 7472 48 -

50 292 90 72 1382 50 1

577 91 418 247" Si 207 1746 9:

'3.

2134 52 43 1:46 93 94 2734 52 l07 1000 94

• 09 2734 40 w

-wm

mo m

D D

3-o o [L S..

o

_a TABLE 9 (Cent' d)

A B

A B

Node Node Veh.

Node Node Veh.

9:

0 135 137 1736 76 97 12:2 137 19S "9

76 417 12 0 14J 133 344 47 98

572 140 143 1873 99 79

'41 13?

0935

$9 100 120 14 41a 300 39 101 26i2 43 420

!5

50 1%

120 144 14:

400

'l 124 2692 14

!!4 210 1574 14o 14 D0

04 106 Pt

147 148

,70 105

4 193e

43 163 790 06 a;

341*

149

!!C 0:11 107 11:

it:

!!0 173

511 08 109 0317

.51 149 238 109 119 2317 12 149 0 73 110

c8 17e

'!3 15:

400 111 110 30

!4 400 11:

2:1 5848 15 15:

1373

3 11 300 1

e 105

L;4

12

!348 156 17:

'32 115 tis 1:50

7 17:

163 116 212 241 1

3 157 1153

17 213

517 157 1:3 400 118 117 3 17 160 161 3098 1:1 111 ICO 13.

173 Es8 102 127 lali lo:

160 -

3:3 1:3 410

.00

!a3 142

300 124 12 2792 led 163 510 105 12e 319

165 1:*

238 126 n!

313 loa 132 1:0 1:7 214 6es 167 168 157

.29 C3 100 143 149 2468 130 131 1753 167 215 918 131 217 lH3 171 27 7

132 105 1934 172 167 157 133 134 300 173 168 2 11 134 401 300 174 219 616

35 15 23 175 174 2215 136 120

!?!3 174 177 202 i

137 132 1936 177 189 7'5 138 136 1333 178 177

553

-41

d.

.a i

TABLE 9 (Cont' d)

A B

A B

Ncde Nede Veh.

Node Nede.Veh.

71 180 535 4:0 41

5 179 130 1088 4:1 13!

.30 191 1623 4:2 114 341;

.91 192 1823 423 4:4 950 132 133 1973 424 188 750

i3 154 1973

'I F

7-6 134

=0

3 501 129 100 187 423 950 502 11 700 1:3 19 1300 503 12 1349 139 2;;

3aae 504 13 300 190 191 1374 505 13 20 JI 194 14 1 507 20 is.

22 193 35 508 20 500 193 04 35:

SJ9 23 1851 134 20 1300

!!3 24 734 19s 223 1:47 511 1135 195 21 279; L2 411 400 194 1793 ii3 28 400 19' 21 3444 514 30 400 193 41+

799 51:

30 582 400 45

?49 516 24 1473 401 155 500 517 2

179 40 403 93:

Li

s 141 403 404 982 519 31 ISO 404 40%

os:

20 415 129 20 406 96

.521 35 818 404 107 992

!!2 39 417 407 1:13 523 40 230 40s 409 913 54 41 544 409 110 913 1:44 410 124 100

a 44 400 411 27 400 527 46 569 di:

413 1234

S 47 292 413 4s4 1234

-20 52 1000 414 30 223 531 2

2:7 41:

33 129 532 50

s:

41:

75 740 533 54 200 41o 141 300 55 53 1234 417 102 1:50 536 43 1:50 418 94

472

!!7 999 419 138 999 UA i:

1473 420 78 1470 539 si 364 42

~ - -

i l

D TABLE 9 (Cent' d)

A B

A B

Nede Node Veh.

gode gode

veh, 540 44

?ti 571 133 500 14; 71 l'"

'72 134

'90 542 75

?!3 573 143 1052

,43

. 73 740

!74 144 400

!4 31 700 55 144 300

$45 30 770 576 147 790 54o 84 882 577 tr.

363

-7 37 i'9

'79 159 400

• +3 34 7!!

579 160 535

$44 12 500 580 164 510 lD 92 7!2

!al 162 12'3 1h f3 KO 532 165 228 22 55 20

'83 164 150 i',3 97 13!0 534 147 2'O M4 102 324

$35 171 7

i d*5 104 30

'84 172 157 S6 108 22

• a7 174 401 EF 110 22 5i8 176 202

!!i 113 800

'af 179 1083 112 500 590 131 30

'60 116 M?

$91 124 2:0

'41 113 30 543 407 Irt3 Sc3 127 3:0 594 191 77 f64 125 400

=9-190 1374 54' 122 443

'io 192 255 5:e 123 100 gpy 139 g94

's7 121 300 gpg igg 3:o ies 14 leo 599 137 yta

!$i 342 400 194 11a 50 131 400 43

o 3

mg m

W

. S. u m

g6 e.

o TABLE 10 EVACUATION 'tOUTE LINK NCEE CESCRIPTICN Sy Centroid Limerick

.N <t2 : WE: C I I NC:E 4 :eCIE : -4 :E a <X 7 GE 3 EE o +:M 3 C E 11 GE :: XX 13 WE 14 4,.

..r

.33 4

.s. -

y

.P

.f. f.

.y

./.

f..

. e.

t.-

.e, e

t; 5,.

r., *,

4

.e

.s

.g e

e-

.p 3

r a.

.e 9

21 f.:

41:

5 57 50 51 141 139 137 13 10:

114 11;

1 C

';3 03

• ?

39 70 7

73 74 009 "3

03 30

?

39 50 9:

73 94 209 04 !;5 30 Oi 39 90 90 93 94 009

!;a 25 1'i

?

197 21 000 Ca !;7 "a

1?s 22 197 21 000 C7 515 25 196

2 197 21 3

1 3

!;f 31 17 -

34 33 32 39 34 40 033 a.v

.04

4. e.

44

-44 4

s.

4 e

il

!1-3:

!a 28 3:

39 34 to 03

~1 29 34 40 203 i

44 i

l I

i m.

., s -

D"d*D D 0J3 Tkm en TABLE.10 (Cont"d}

i.'si $%I !

+0*E : *::E 3.tDE 4 90:E 5 9;IE i WDE 7 <DE 3 MCDE 4 9CIE 10 sCDE 11 4DE 12 MC1E 13 Cl.4

- <~,

1c,.

J.

-:4 41 42 204 l

C C5 C

'43 205 h Ib 44

-M 45

!4 51-207 l

12 C7 to 44 400 4:

!4 si w

l

!23 47 43 50 2G7 t

t f30 207 l

r..-

531

!6 17 203 4.3

.2.

,0

,1

../

44 533 14 11 207

• 1

!35 53 4 '.2 413 414 30 31 141 139 137 132 10 14 112 53e s3

4 90 51 413 76 417 10:

G ai 57 52 414 W

st 141 139 193 419 133 134 130 13; 217

.34 C2 i:

27 64

9 140 143 400 4*1 13!

25 152 1:2 dc

.173 168

9 21 9 09 da e9 140 138 134.

130 131 17 to 540 54 37 S4 57-38 104 104 422 114 12 211 s7 !41 71 70 43 54 90 91 419 76

+7 73 79 1;1

• 4 J5 124 N1

'4 N

76 77 403 409 110 108 109 113 i;7

' 013

< !43 73 74 41:

75 76 4:0 78 79 101 1:4 12:

5

13 43 !44 31

4 47 54 37 28 104 104 J22

14 112 21.

v4 54 20 79

~ 75 76 4:0 78 79 101 14 12!

124 Oli 45'

i

-1 t.t

.i D** D D

3 b-w&'

a TABLE 10 (Cont ' d) 4

. 's -::51 <tE *.*:;E 3.<tE 4 4:E 5 MK 6 <M 7 4LE 3 MDE 7 MBE 10 <LE ;; NCDE 1 < E II <X 14 9

3,

<-o s,.

iC

-u 404 4.,

vo

.a

.a

. !47 37.

32 104-10s 4:2 114 112 Oli 03 fil Jo 57 56 1:4 1"4 42 l' 4 112

11

4 !n S

!3 54 ~

- 33 402 4C3 404 40:

4Ci

.7

- 11

!c

~10 s1 :!?

92

'3 94 l0:

?:

93 84 209 4,.

e..r-

,,.,)

.4 3a.

re-s,

.e r

.r,a s.

..)

tr,

.y.

..a

.4 1.,

4.

,r..:

g

. g.z

,,3

.2.

i 37 110

.08 109 115

17 213 n..

-

13 11

.,e r

.r.e:

U e.f.e, 10 v

t; Col 119 G7

13 4

. e,.

.s. 4 2

L.

.c4 3

e.,

.4 1 7. -

314 4 --

f. 4 W 123

.;0 124 126 215

'5

!6' 11 111 110-108 109 118

7 213 F

46 4

-w a

r -.

- 7. ' J i

TABLE 10 (Cont'd) 4

.: '48 1

224 s-569 10 214 3

.n.

5.

./

.4 4 '71 133

.34 401

S 157 175 174 219 f.3

.v III

.2,

r.

..a r3.573 143 49 421

-135 1:4 175 174 21?

I f

574 144

45 154 15 149 150 173 148

9 215 c.

il 14e 14 41a

4;

39 137 13*

105 114

10 011 43 !7$.

47 143 163

!$2 130 161 178 177 164 22 CA: 577

53 157 17!

174 219 Gi 573-159

.53

,4 10 173 168

'69 215

13. '7c

40 tel 175 -

30 131 13~

153 1se 220 G3 'JO 164 123 142 le0

41 178 177 189 G4 531 132 130 161 173 177 189

1 532 155 149 1J 173 164 169 218

2 !53

od

.i:

IS3 134 2:0 0:3.564 149 219

.1 ~5 7

4, i f

021 586 172

47 168 169 218

F1 'J7

74 219 1-i C 1 554

'74 177 139

• 2" l

lJ: !39

79 130 131 182 153 194

20 47 i

't-a t.

l..

Freeway 2,000 vehicles per. lane per hour; therefore, two evacuation lanes would be 4,000 per hour.

2.

Two-lane-Facilities - A capacity of 1,500 vehicles per lane per hour was assigned _to State Highway = and other high type roadways and 1,000 vehicles per lane per hour for a roadway of lesser quality.

3.

Interchanges and Ramps - 1,500 vehicles per hour.

Special Traffic Control Stratecies - In order to attain maximum capacity on the network, centrol critical intersection-movements.and provide direction for complex evacuation routings, special traffic control strategies are Emperative.

In some instances major population centers were split to avoid overloads to the network and produce abnormally long delays.

These locations will require special handling to ensure that motorists utilize their assigned routing for evacuation.

A case in point is node 67 at the junction of High Street and Hanover Street in downtown-Pottstown.

All west bound traffic on High Street will be required to turn left onto Hanover Street and cross the bridge.

All south bound traffic on Hanover Street will have to turn right onto High Street and proceed out of town on U.S.

422.

i Interchanges and ramps which affect the capacity that can be loaded to the main line will need special control strategies.

Special Transportation Recuirements - Transportation require-ments for special problem groups, such as non-car owning families, hospitals, schools, jails, etc., were not included in the evacua-tien time assessment.

The assumtpion was that all families would evacuate as a unit from home.

This would preclude the requirement i

for evacuating school students from school. to outside the risk -

area.

49 1

1 EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT Evacuation times have been considered for four different scenarios.

The scenarios are:

1.

Normal weekday - workers at work, children in school 2.

Ideal conditions - nighttime, most everyone at home 3.

Adverse weather conditions - storms, fog, or flood 4.

Summertime recreational peak The assessment was performed by computer to a process described in some detail in Volume I.

Normal Weekday Table 11 lists the evacuation times by centroid for the four scenarios listed above.

The maximum evacuation time is three i

hours and nine minutes for centroid Z-3 during the normal week-4 day.

This centroid is in East Coventrf Township.

These evacuation tiras include receipt of. warning, leaving work, travel home, departure from home, network travel and delay time.

Summertime There are no major recreation areas within the EP and the summertime pcpulation is the same as other seasons.

There fore,

the evacuatien times are the same as normal weekday.

Adverse Weatner If the weather were adverse to the extent traffic could not move on the roadway system, then the plant would probably have to be shut down.

The probability of that happening is very re-mote.

A more likely occurrence is icy, slick roads during a winter storm.

50 I

2 e

,,--g--w,,-

o--\\w-4 y

w,-

-w,4-r, 3

m

,r The second column of Table 11 assumes an ice storm, or ice and snow ccabination, where roadways are not impassable but are much slower to travel.

Under these conditions, travel frem work to home would be distributed over 40 minutes instead of 20 min-Network travel during evacuation would probably be reduced utes.

to one-half of normal speed.

With these conditions, the maximum evacuation time would be three hours and 10 minutes for centroid Z-3.

Generally, the adverse weather times -are longer than the evacuation times for su=mer.

Nichttime This scenario provides the shcrtest evacuation times of all.

People are hcme from work and children are home from schcol.

With the f amily all at hcme, the mobilization time is less.

There is a time distribution for receiving the warning and a time dis-tributien for preparing to leave.

The time distributions for preparing to leave work and travel from work to home does not apply.

Under these conditions, the maximum evacuation time would be two hours and 54 minutes for centroid Z-3.

The third column of Table 11 gives the evacuation time at night.

Sector Evacuation Evacuation Plans are usually set up on a sector or quandrant basis.

This assessment has not been concerned wish segmenting the 10-mile radius.

The assessment locked at total evacuatica from the EPZ.

Ecwever, this does not preclude evacuation by quadrants.

Cuadrants can be examined frem the data in this report.

Sector evacuation can be apprcximated by the selection of appropriate planning =cnes.

51

e e-F TABLE 11.

EVACUATION TIMES BY CENTROID NORMAL WEEKDAY ADVERSE WEATHER NIGHT IME

E:1TROID TIME C N ROI3 TIME C M ic!c r!ME A1 76 Al 103 41 21 A2 78 A2 106 A2 e3 A3 30 A3 108 A3 56 44 A4 105 44 32 45 76 A5 102 45 31 31 132 31 l#3 31 117 32 132 32 141 P2 117 33 102 33 123 33 is 34 108 34 121 34 93 35 105 35 117 35 9-)

C1 95 Cl 138

1 50 C2 174

2 gy, 44 f.3 1*a C3 177 C3 in 04 147 C8 IN 24 132 "9

31 C:

26 C6 95 C6 124 Ci 73 07 92 C7 113 C7

'N 31 104 D1 122 31 go D2 7:

32 108 22 s

El 102 El 119 El S7 F1

?9 F1 110

1 33 F2

'86 F2 104 7;

31 78 31 107 21

$3 di 78 H1 106 31 33 Il 94 II 119 11 79

!2 97 I2 124

!2 32

3 94 I3 Ils I3 n

At t)

X1 110 x1 g

K2 il X2

!!3 N2 73 13 il X3 112 G

74 (4

91 X4 112 X4 76 M1 123 MI 143

,91 108 82 133 M2 154 M2 119 M3 127 M3 148 43 112 e4 1:1 M4 -

177 M4 136 45 102 M5 132 2

35 M4 130 46 146 M7 164 M7 132 M7 149 41 120 M1 145 N1 115 42 1:1 42 169 12 136 13 131 U

148 13 116 N4 1:2 M

167 44 17 01 117 01 131 01 102 52

.....e D**D

• D T

A 2

.ww c

TABLE 11 (Cont'd)

EVACUATION TIMES BY CENTROID NORMAI, WEEKDAY ADVERSE WEATHER NIGHTTIME

I* TROD TIME M ID TDE 2 0 01

TIME I

117 C

137 0;

104 C3 122 03 143 03 107 i

]4 115 04 135 04 108

?!

13e F1 1:2

?!

121 P2 104 72 133 P2 3?

J1 74 21 102 31 2L 31 l34 RI 148 R1 11" a2 i9 R2 108 R2 24 st 117 S1 138

$1 108 52 FI S2 120 32 74 33 f3 53

9 53 73 il 1.1 Il 123 T1 96 73 T2

07 72 33 T3 104 T3 115 0

59

'J1 37

'J1 117-t:1 72

'll 11 71

2a V

f6 V2

'I V2 1:0 12 73 J3 122 V3 132 V3 105 V4 1:0 V4 130

'J4 95.

V5

+1 V

25 V!

-?s J1 73 W1 105 J1 6?

XI

'7

• n 108 XI ed 22 i-n 13 12 il Y1 YI

33 91 Y2 T2 129 Y2 7!

?3 13 1 73 141 73 13:

21

06 Z1

45 n

?!

40 Z2 130 Z2 23

3*

Z3 190 23 174 CA1 103 CA1 125 CAI 33 C31 10' C31 143 C31 80 C32

22 032 137 C32 109 C33 195 C33 132 C33 170 034 133 C34 179

34 133 0

1 IC1 0:1

28 C1 5e CO2

?-

CO2 119 CC2 U

Z3 93 CC3 1:e 003 75 Q1 77 031 104 C1 42 CE1 97 CII 127 Il 12 CF1 75 CT!

111 0F1 N

031

.15 C31 149 031 100

32 71 C3

113

32 -

7e C33 39 C33 113 C33 74 53

sh., o

=

\\

Q b

TABLE 11 (Cont'd)

EVACUATION. TIMES BY CENTROID NORMAL WEEKDAY ADVERSE WEATHER NIGHTTIME F 8CID

• IM C M ;0I:

TIE

.'A l do.

CHI 107 31 7I CJ1 92 CJ1 105 CJ1 OJ2 32 CJ:

112 2

• ?

0;3 34 CJ3

'lig 043 87 CJ4 79 CJ4

.108 CJ4 4*

<e 49 C;5 138 C;5

J6 -

134 Cod 147 CE' 11?

CJ7 is CJ7 149 Cd7 120 CX1 2's CA1 103 M1 61 i

4

=

b l

54 i

y y-

, + - -

~-p-w w

e-

-r 7

t

+

.r w

+----+--16v-w-

W g 4g