IR 05000247/2002010: Difference between revisions

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{{#Wiki_filter:Attachment 1 Final Precursor Analysis Accident Sequence Precursor Program --- Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Indian Point, Unit 2 Moderate degradation of control room west wall could allow smoke and gases to penetrate the control room in the event of a turbine building fire
{{#Wiki_filter:Attachment 1
'DWH July 19, ,5 50-247/02-  0HDQ &'3 [
2002  1  7.1 x 10-6 April 30, 2003 Condition Summary On July 19, 2002, the NRC completed an inspection of selected areas of the Indian Point Unit 2 facility (Ref. 1). The inspection identified a moderate degradation of the control room west wall fire prior to February 2002, in that there were passages in the wall that could allow smoke and gases to infiltrate into the control room in the event of a turbine building fire and could cause a control room evacuation and use of alternative safe shutdown systems (Ref. 1).


Cause The west wall did not conform to the 3-hour fire barrier design requirements.
IR No. 247/02-010 Final Precursor Analysis Accident Sequence Precursor Program --- Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Indian Point, Unit 2 Moderate degradation of control room west wall could allow smoke and gases to penetrate the control room in the event of a turbine building fire
'DWH July 19,
2002
,5 50-247/02-


Recovery Opportunity The postulated fire in the turbine building, applicable to the turbine generator lube oil system or the main feedwater pump lube oil system, could generate sufficient smoke to cause infiltration into the control room and its subsequent evacuation after a successful reactor trip/turbine trip. The recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment using the alternate safe shutdown system (ASSS) would prevent core damage.
0HDQ &'3 [
7.1 x 10-6 April 30, 2003 Condition Summary On July 19, 2002, the NRC completed an inspection of selected areas of the Indian Point Unit 2 facility (Ref. 1). The inspection identified a moderate degradation of the control room west wall fire prior to February 2002, in that there were passages in the wall that could allow smoke and gases to infiltrate into the control room in the event of a turbine building fire and could cause a control room evacuation and use of alternative safe shutdown systems (Ref. 1).


Analysis Results
Cause The west wall did not conform to the 3-hour fire barrier design requirement Recovery Opportunity The postulated fire in the turbine building, applicable to the turbine generator lube oil system or the main feedwater pump lube oil system, could generate sufficient smoke to cause infiltration into the control room and its subsequent evacuation after a successful reactor trip/turbine tri The recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment using the alternate safe shutdown system (ASSS) would prevent core damag Analysis Results  
 Importance The risk significance of the control room evacuation with the recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment with the ASSS is determined using the SPAR Rev. 3i model for Indian Point 2 (Ref.2). The analyses was with the transient initiating frequency (IE-TRANS) replaced by the combined smoke frequency of the turbine generator lube oil fires and main feedwater pump lube oil fires. This method is similar to that outlined in NUREG/CR-6544, Development of a Methodology for Analyzing Precursors for Earthquake-Induced or Fire-Induced Accident Sequences, Section 3.7 (Ref. 3). For this analysis, the increase in point estimate change in conditional core damage probability ( CDP) is 7.4x10-6 and the mean CDP is 7.1x10-6. The uncertainty about the mean is:

5% bound, 1.3x10-7 and 95% bound, 2.8x10- The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program acceptance threshold is an importance ( CDP) of 1x10-6.
Importance The risk significance of the control room evacuation with the recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment with the ASSS is determined using the SPAR Rev. 3i model for Indian Point 2 (Ref.2). The analyses was with the transient initiating frequency (IE-TRANS) replaced by the combined smoke frequency of the turbine generator lube oil fires and main feedwater pump lube oil fire This method is similar to that outlined in NUREG/CR-6544, Development of a Methodology for Analyzing Precursors for Earthquake-Induced or Fire-Induced Accident Sequences, Section 3.7 (Re ). For this analysis, the increase in point estimate change in conditional core damage probability ( CDP) is 7.4x10-6 and the mean CDP is 7.1x10- The uncertainty about the mean is:
5% bound, 1.3x10-7 and 95% bound, 2.8x10-5.


 Dominant sequence (TRANS)
The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program acceptance threshold is an importance ( CDP) of 1x10-6.
1  IR No. 247/02-010


The dominant sequence is Transient Sequence 19. The events and important component failures in this sequence include:

- Reactor trips successfully during transient
Dominant sequence (TRANS)
- No or Insufficient AFW flow
- Failure of main feedwater system during transient
- Successful Bleed portion of feed and bleed
- Adequate flow from HPI system
- Failure of secondary cooling
- No or insufficient flow from HPR system
 Results tables
- Table 1 provides the importance values for the dominant sequence Table 2a provides the event tree sequence logic for the dominant sequenc Table 2b defines the nomenclature used in Table 2 Table 3 provides the additional cut sets for the dominant sequenc Table 4 provides the definitions and probabilities for selected events.


Modeling Assumptions
IR No. 247/02-010 The dominant sequence is Transient Sequence 1 The events and important component failures in this sequence include:
 ASP analysis approach Condition duration. The control room west wall barrier was in a degraded condition since for a period greater than one year.
-
Reactor trips successfully during transient
-
No or Insufficient AFW flow
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Failure of main feedwater system during transient
-
Successful Bleed portion of feed and bleed
-
Adequate flow from HPI system
-
Failure of secondary cooling
-
No or insufficient flow from HPR system

Results tables
-
Table 1 provides the importance values for the dominant sequences.


 SPAR model used in the analysis The Revision 3i (interim) of the Indian Point 2 Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR)
-
model (Ref. 2) was used for this assessment. For this initiating event analysis, the IE-TRANS frequency is replaced with the smoke frequency (5.6E-3) and all other initiating event frequencies are set to zero. External events are not included in this analysis.
Table 2a provides the event tree sequence logic for the dominant sequence.


 Smoke-induced analysis considerations The smoke-induced analysis is based on NUREG/CR-6544 (Ref. 3). For this analysis the control room is assumed to be evacuated after successful reactor trip and one train of safe shutdown equipment is operated using the ASSS. The IE-TRANS frequency is replaced with the smoke frequency, based on smoke produced from turbine generator lube oil fires, severe smoke events resulting in turbine building evacuation, and smoke produced from main feedwater pump lube oil fires. These events were evaluated as severe enough to possibly result in smoke ingestion into the control room and subsequent control room evacuatio Initiating Smoke Frequency - The initiating smoke frequency (Fis) was developed from NRC Report RES/OERAB/S02-01 database (Ref. 4) for power operation fire 2  IR No. 247/02-010
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Table 2b defines the nomenclature used in Table 2a.


events (1986-1999 with updates through 2001). For Indian Point 2, the smoke frequency (FS) used was 5.6 x 10-3 based on:
-
Fis = (No. of Turbine Generator lube oil fires + No. Turbine Building smoke evacuation events + Jeffreys noninformative prior) ÷ No. Turbine Generators x No. of reactor-years of power operation for the period) +
Table 3 provides the additional cut sets for the dominant sequence.
  (No. of main feedwater pump lube oil fires ÷ No. Main feedwater pumps x No. of reactor-years of power operation for the period).


Fis = (5 +1 ) + 2 + Jeffreys Prior = 8 + .5 = 5.6 x 10-3 (1 x 1310) (2.34)(1310)  1529 Note: The number of smoke events in the numerator was maintained and the denominator (component-years) was adjusted/weighted before a Bayesian update was made using a Jeffreys noninformative prior (0.5 smoke events).
-
Table 4 provides the definitions and probabilities for selected events.


 Unique system considerations The plant design provides an alternate safe shutdown system to shut the plant down with one train of safe shutdown equipment in the event of control room evacuation.
Modeling Assumptions

ASP analysis approach Condition duratio The control room west wall barrier was in a degraded condition since for a period greater than one yea 
SPAR model used in the analysis The Revision 3i (interim) of the Indian Point 2 Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR)
model (Ref. 2) was used for this assessmen For this initiating event analysis, the IE-TRANS frequency is replaced with the smoke frequency (5.6E-3) and all other initiating event frequencies are set to zer External events are not included in this analysis.


 Modifications to event tree and fault tree models

- The event trees were not modifie The fault trees were modified to include/clarify the recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment, as applicable, using the ASSS (see Figures 1A-1E).
Smoke-induced analysis considerations The smoke-induced analysis is based on NUREG/CR-6544 (Ref. 3). For this analysis the control room is assumed to be evacuated after successful reactor trip and one train of safe shutdown equipment is operated using the ASS The IE-TRANS frequency is replaced with the smoke frequency, based on smoke produced from turbine generator lube oil fires, severe smoke events resulting in turbine building evacuation, and smoke produced from main feedwater pump lube oil fire These events were evaluated as severe enough to possibly result in smoke ingestion into the control room and subsequent control room evacuation.


 Initiating event probability changes The TRANS initiating event (IE-TRANS) frequency was replaced by the smoke frequency (5.6 x 10-3). All other initiating events frequencies were set to zero. Figure 2 shows the event tree for the smoke-induced transient analysis dominant sequence.
-
Initiating Smoke Frequency - The initiating smoke frequency (Fis) was developed from NRC Report RES/OERAB/S02-01 database (Ref. 4) for power operation fire


 Base event probability changes Table 4 provides the basic events that were modified to reflect the event condition being analyzed. Equipment not controlled from the ASSS is assumed be inoperable and assigned a value of 1.0 in the model.
IR No. 247/02-010 events (1986-1999 with updates through 2001). For Indian Point 2, the smoke frequency (FS) used was 5.6 x 10-3 based on:
Fis =
(No. of Turbine Generator lube oil fires + No. Turbine Building smoke evacuation events + Jeffreys noninformative prior) ÷ No. Turbine Generators x No. of reactor-years of power operation for the period) +
(No. of main feedwater pump lube oil fires ÷ No. Main feedwater pumps x No. of reactor-years of power operation for the period).


 Initiating event assessment probability changes
Fis =
  - AFW Motor-Driven Pump 23 Fails to Run (AFW-MDP-FR-23). This event was set to AFW Motor-Driven Pump 23 Fails to Start (AFW-MDP-FS-23). This event was set to IR No. 247/02-010
  (5 +1 ) + 2 + Jeffreys Prior = 8 +.5 = 5.6 x 10-3


- Operator Fails to Recover AFWMDP 23 (Fails to Run) (AFW-XHE-XL-MDP23).
(1 x 1310) (2.34)(1310)
1529 Note: The number of smoke events in the numerator was maintained and the denominator (component-years) was adjusted/weighted before a Bayesian update was made using a Jeffreys noninformative prior (0.5 smoke events).


This event was set to Failure of CCW MDP 22 (CCW-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to Failure of CCW MDP-21 to Run (CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21). This event was set to Failure of CCW MDP 22 to Run (CCW-MDP-FR-MDP22). This event was set to Failure of CCW MDP-21 to Start (CCW-MDP-FS-MDP21). This event was set to Failure of CCW MDP-22 to Start (CCW-MDP-FS-MDP22). This event was set to Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 (CVC-PDP-FC-22). This event was set to Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 21 to Run (CVC-PDP-FR-21). This event was set to Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 to Run (CVC-PDP-FR-22). This event was set to Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 to Start (CVC- PDP-FS-22). This event was set to Failure of HPI MDP-22 (HPI-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to Failure of HPI MDP-23 (HPI-MDP-FC-23). This event was set to Failure of HPI MDP-22 (HPI-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to RHR MDP-22 Fails (RHR-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to RHR MDP-22 Fails to Run (RHR-MDP-FR-22). This event was set to RHR MDP-22 Fails to Start (RHR-MDP-FS-22). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-21). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-22). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-25). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-26). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP21). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP22). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP25). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP26). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-21). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-22). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-25). This event was set to Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-26). This event was set to Failure to Align Alternate Safe Shutdown Power Supplies (SSS-XHE-XE-Align).

Unique system considerations The plant design provides an alternate safe shutdown system to shut the plant down with one train of safe shutdown equipment in the event of control room evacuation.


This event was set to 1.0E-00 Transient Initiating Event (IE-TRANS). This initiating event was set to 5.6E-00 All other initiating events were set to zero.

Modifications to event tree and fault tree models
-
The event trees were not modified.


 Model update No updates were made to the SPAR model, except clarification of fault trees for the alignment of the alternate safe shutdown system (see Figures 1A-1E) .
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4  IR No. 247/02-010
The fault trees were modified to include/clarify the recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment, as applicable, using the ASSS (see Figures 1A-1E).


References EA-02-162, Indian Point Unit 2 - NRC Supplemental/Problem Identification and Resolution Inspection Report No. 50-247/02-010n Number, dated August 28, 2002. J. K. Knudsen and R. F. Buell, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Model for Indian Point Unit 2, Revision 3i, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, May 2002. R.W.Budnitz, et al., Development of a Methodology for Analyzing Precursors to Earthquake-Induced and Fire-Induced Accident Precursors, NUREG/CR-6544, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, April 1998. J.R. Houghton and D. M. Rasmuson, NRC Report RES/OERAB/S02-01, Fire Events Update of U.S. Operating Experience, 1986-1999, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, January 200 IR No. 247/02-010

Initiating event probability changes The TRANS initiating event (IE-TRANS) frequency was replaced by the smoke frequency (5.6 x 10-3). All other initiating events frequencies were set to zer Figure 2 shows the event tree for the smoke-induced transient analysis dominant sequence.


Table 1. Conditional Probability Associated with Highest Probability Sequence (Point Estimate)

Event Tree Sequence  Conditional Core Damage probability (CCDP)
Base event probability changes Table 4 provides the basic events that were modified to reflect the event condition being analyze Equipment not controlled from the ASSS is assumed be inoperable and assigned a value of 1.0 in the model.
TRANS 19  6.7E-06 All Sequences 7.4E-06 TOTAL Table 2a. Event tree sequence logic for dominant sequence Event Tree Name Sequence  Logic n (/ denotes success; see Table 2b. for top event names TRANS  19  /RT, AFW, MFW-T, /BLEED, /HPI, SGCOOL, HPR Table 2b. Definitions of sequence logic elements listed in Table 2 AFW  No or insufficient AFW flow BLEED Failure of Bleed portion of Feed and Bleed cooling SGCOOL Failure of secondary cooling HPI  No or insufficient flow from HPI system HPR  No or insufficient HPR flow RHR  No or insufficient flow from RHR system RT  Reactor fails to trip during transient Table 3a. Conditional cut sets for dominant sequence (Point Estimate)
Event tree: TRANS Sequence 19 CCDP Percent Minimum cut sets1 Contribution 1.6E-006 2 PCS-XHE-XO-SEC  SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN AFW-MDP-FR-23  AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 AFW-TDP-FR-22  SWS-MDP-FR-21 SWS-MDP-FR-22 1.6E-006 2 PCS-XHE-XO-SEC  SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN AFW-MDP-FR-22  AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 AFW-TDP-FR-22  CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21 CCW-MDP-FC-MDP22 6.7E-006 Total2 NOTES: See Table 4 for definitions and probabilities for the base events. Total CDP includes all other cut sets (including those not shown in this table).


6  IR No. 247/02-010

Initiating event assessment probability changes
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AFW Motor-Driven Pump 23 Fails to Run (AFW-MDP-FR-23). This event was set to 1.0.


Table 4. Definitions and probabilities for modified and dominant basic events Probability/
-
Event name  Description  Modified Frequency IE-LDC22 LOSS OF DC Bus 22 INITIATING EVENT FREQUENCY 0.00 YES1 IE-LLOCA LARGE LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING 0.00 YES1 EVENT IE-LOCCW LOSS OF COMPONENT COOLING WATER INITIATING 0.00 YES1 EVENT IE-LOop LOSS OF OFFSITE POWER INITIATING EVENT  0.00 YES1 IE-LOSWS LOSS OF SERVICE WATER INITIATING EVENT  0.00 YES1 IE-MLOCA MEDIUM LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING 0.00 YES1 EVENT IE-RHR-DIS-V RHR DISCHARGE ISLOCA OCCURS WITH REACTOR AT 0.00 YES1 POWER OVER 1 YEAR IE-RHR-SUC-V RHR SUCTION ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT  0.00 YES1 IE-SGTR STEAM GENERATOR TUBE RAPTURE  0.00 YES1 IE-SI-CLDIS-V SI COLD LEG ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT  0.00 YES1 IE-SI-HLDIS-V SI HOT LEG ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT  0.00 YES1 IE-SLOCA SMALL BREAK LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT  0.00 YES1 INITIATING EVENT IE-TRAN INITIATING EVENT-TRANSIENT  5.6E-03 YES1 AFW-MDP-FR-23 AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 23 FAILS TO RUN  1.00 YES2 AFW-MDP-FS-23 AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 23 FAILS TO START  1.00 YES2 AFW-XHE-XL- OPERATOR FAILS TO RECOVER MDP23 1.00 YES2 MDPFR23 CCW-MDP-FC-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP22  1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FS-MDP21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 TO START  1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FS-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 TO START  1.00 YES2 CVC-PDP-FC-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22  1.00 YES2 CVC-PDP-FR-21 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 21 TO 1.00 YES8 RUN CVC-PDP-FR-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 TO 1.00 YES8 RUN CVC-PDP-FS-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 TO 1.00 YES2 START HPI-MDP-FC-22 FAILURE OF HPI MDP-22  1.00 YES2 HPI-MDP-FC-23 FAILURE OF HPI MDP-23  1.00 YES2 RHR-MDP-FC-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS  1.00 YES2 RHR-MDP-FR-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS TO RUN  1.00 YES2
AFW Motor-Driven Pump 23 Fails to Start (AFW-MDP-FS-23). This event was set to IR No. 247/02-010
      IR No. 247/02-010
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Operator Fails to Recover AFWMDP 23 (Fails to Run) (AFW-XHE-XL-MDP23).


Probability/
This event was set to 1.0.
Event name  Description  Modified Frequency RHR-MDP-FS-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS TO START  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO RUN  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO START  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO START  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO START  1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO START  1.00 YES2 SWS-XHE-XE-ALIGN FAILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN  1.0E-02 YES2 SYSTEM AFW-TDP-FR-22 AFW TURBINE DRIVEN PUMP FAILS TO RUN  2.8E-02 NO PCS-XHE-XO-SEC OPERATOR FAILS TO ESTABLISH SECONDARY COOLING  2.0E-01 NO Notes: The TRANS initiating event frequency was replaced with the smoke frequency. All other initiating event frequencies were set to zero. Basic events were changed to reflect condition being analyzed. .
      IR No. 247/02-010


FAI LURE O F AFW M DP-21 AFW-MDP21 COM MON CAUSE AF W M DP 21 SUCTI ON AFW M DP 21 UNAVAILABLE AF W MDP 21 DISCH  FAILURE OF POWER DI VI SION BUS AFW M DP 21 FAILS        AFW MDP 21 FAILS F AILURE OF AFW CHECK VALVE FAI LS DUE TO TEST AND  CHECK VALVE FAILS  T O AFW MDP 21 DC-23 DC POWER TO RUN        TO START M OTOR DRIVEN TO OPEN  MAINTENANCE  TO OPEN    FAILS PUMPS AFW-MDP21-FR-F AFW-MDP-CF-AB AFW-CKV-CC-SUC21 AFW-MDP-TM-21  AFW-CKV-CC-DIS21 AFW-MDP21-FS-F AFW-MDP21-PWR DIV-23-DC AF W M OTOR-DRIVEN OPERATO R FAILS    AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN OPERATOR FAILS FAILURE TO ALIG N DIVISI ON 3A PUMP 21 FAILS TO RECO VER AF W    PUM P 21 FAILS TO RECOVER AFW ALTERNATE SAF E AC POWER FAILS TO RUN M DP 21 (FAILS    TO START M DP 21 (FAILS SHUTDOWN POWER TO RUN)       TO ST ART) SUPPLIES AFW-MDP-FR-21 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR21    AFW-MDP-FS-21 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFS21 SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN DIV-3A-AC
-

Failure of CCW MDP 22 (CCW-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.
SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE FIGURE 1A IR No. 247/02-010 IR No. 247/02-010


FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING C CW C CW HOUS E  FAILUR E OF  FAILURE OF  CCF OF ALL  FAILUR E OF EVEN T  CCW S UR GE  CCW MDPs  CCW MDPs  C CW HEA T TAN K    TO RUN  EXCHAN GE RS CCW -HE  CCW- TN K- FC-SURG E  C CW-1  CCW -MDP-CF- FRAL L  CCW- HTX FAILURE OF          FA L I U RE OF          FAILUR E OF CC W MDP -23        CCW MDP-21          CCW MDP -22 C CW-MDP23          CCW- MDP21          CCW- MD P22 CCF OF ALL  FAILUR E OF  DIV ISION BUS DC-24  CCW MDP-23  FAILUR E OF  FAILU RE OF  DIVISION 5A A C  CCF OF ALL  FA ILURE OF  DIVISION 2A A C  CCW MDP-22 CC W MD Ps  CCW MDP -23  D C POWE R FA ILS  U NA VAILAB LE  CCW MDP -21  CCW MDP-21 POW ER FAILS  CCW MDP s  C CW MDP-22  POWER FAILS  U NA VAILABLE TO START        DUE TO T & M  TO RUN  D UR ING LOOP    TO S TA RT        DUE TO T & M CCW -MDP-CF-FSALL  CC W-MDP- FC-MDP23  DIV-24- DC  CCW-MDP-TM- MD P2 3  CC W-MDP-FR-MD P21  CCW- MDP21- 1 D IV-5A- AC  CCW- MD P- CF-FSALL  CCW -MDP-FC-MDP22  DI V-2A- AC  CCW- MD P- TM- MDP2 2 FAILU RE OF POWE R  CCF OF CCW  OPE RATOR FA ILS TO  CC W MDP -21      CCW MDP-21  DIVISION BUS DC-22  C CF OF CC W  OPER ATOR FAILS TO TO CCW MDP 23  MDP s DISCH AR GE  RESTORE CCW MDP-23  FAILURES TO      LOOP FLA GS  DC P OW ER F AILS  MDP s DISCHARGE  RE STORE CCW MDP-22 C HECK VA LVES  A FTER T & M    S TART            CH EC K VA LV ES  AFTE R T & M CCW -MDP23-PWR  C CW-CKV-CF-MDPS  CCW- XHE-XR-MDP23    CCW-MDP2 1-2      CCW -MDP21 -3  DIV- 22-DC  CCW -CKV- CF-MDPS  C CW- XHE- XR-MDP22 FAILU RE TO ALIGN DIVISION 6A A C      CCF OF ALL  FA L I URE OF CCW  CCF OF CCW  LOSS OF  LOSS OF DIV 5A ALTERNATE S AFE    CCW MDPs  MDP -21 DISC HARGE  MD Ps DISCHA RGE  OFFS T I E POWER  OFFSITE POW ER POW ER FAILS S HUTD OW N P OW ER    TO START  CH ECK VALV E  CHE CK VALVE S  HOUSE EVE NT  FLAG SUPP LIE S DI V- 6A-AC  SSS- XH E- XE-ALI GN    CCW -MDP-C F-FSALL  CCW-CKV-CC- MDP21  CCW- CKV-CF-MDPS  LOSP  LO SP-5A FAILURE OF  DIV IS O I N B US DC-21 CCW MDP -21  DC POWE R FAILS TO STAR T C CW-MDP-FS- MDP2 1  DIV-21-DC SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE 1
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FIGURE 1B IR No. 247/02-010 IR No. 247/02-010
Failure of CCW MDP-21 to Run (CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21). This event was set to 1.0.


FAILURE OF C HA RGIN G PU MPS TO PROVIDE RCP COOLING RCP- CVC FAILUR E OF CHA RGING          FAILURE OF CHARGING PU MP 21            PUMP 22 RC P-CVC -2          R CP-C VC-3 CCF OF P OS T I IVE FA L I U RE OF POSITIVE        CC F OF CVC PUMP CCF OF POSITIVE CCF OF POSITIVE  FAILURE OF POSITIV E DIV S I ION 5A FA ILU RE OF C VC            DIVISION 3A  FAILURE OF P DP DIS PLAC EMENT DIS PLAC EMENT        22/23 DISCH CHECK DISP LA CE ME NT DISP LA CE ME NT  DISP LACE MENT A C POWE R FAILS P UMP S EAL COOLIN G            AC POWER FAILS  22 LUBE OILCOOLING P UMPS TO RU N PUMP 21          VA LV ES  PU MPS TO RUN P UMPS 22/23 TO  PUMP 22 S TART CVC -PDP-CF-FRAL L CVC-PD P-FR- 21  DIV-5A-AC R CP-C VC-2 1    C VC-C KV-CF- 2223 CVC -PDP- CF-FRALL C VC-PD P-CF-FS223  CVC -PDP-FC -22  DIV-3A-AC  RC P-CVC -2 2 OPE RA TOR FA ILS              OPER ATOR FAILS TO ALIGN CITY FAILURE OF CCW  FAILURE OF C HA RGIN G          TO A LIG N CITY  FAILURE OF C CW TO P ROVIDE COOLING  PUMP 23              TO PROV IDE COOLING W ATER F OR S EAL              WATE R FOR SE AL COOLING                C OOLIN G CVC- XHE-XM-BCKCW C CW  RCP- CVC-4          C VC-XH E-XM-BCKCW  CCW CC F OF CVC P UMP CC F OF P OSITIVE  FAILURE OF CVC CC F OF P OS T I IVE FAILURE OF P OSITIVE  FA L I URE OF POWE R 22/23 DISCH CHECK DIS PLACEMENT  PUMP 23 S EAL  DS I PLACEMEN T DISPLACEMENT  TO CHA RGIN G P UMP VA LV ES PU MPS TO RUN  C OOLIN G  PUMP S 22/23TO  P UMP 23  23 STAR T C VC-C KV-CF- 2223 CVC-PDP- CF-FRALL  RCP- CVC- 23 CVC- PDP-CF-FS223 CVC-PDP-FC- 23  RC P-CVC -5 OPERATOR FAILS    FA L I URE TO ALIGN FAILUR E OFCCW      DIV IS O I N 6A TO A LIG N C ITY  TO P ROVIDE C OOLING  ALTERNATE S AFE  A C POWE R FAILS WA TE R FOR SE AL    SHU TDOWN POW ER COOLIN G      S UPP LIE S CVC-XH E-XM-BCKC W  CCW   SSS-XHE-XE- ALIGN  DIV- 6A- AC 1
-
FIGURE 1C IR No. 247/02-010
Failure of CCW MDP 22 to Run (CCW-MDP-FR-MDP22). This event was set to 1.0.


FA ILURE OF SW S MDP-23 SWS-MDP23 FA ILURE OF SW S C CF OF SW S P UMP S CCF OF S W S PUMPS      OPE RA TOR FAI LS OPE RATOR FA ILS  FAIL URE OF POW ER CC F OF SW S PUM PS DI VISION 6A FA ILURE OF SW S S W S MDP 23 UNAV AILA BLE    FAILU RE OF S W S TO S TART S W S T O RE STORE S W S  TO SW S M DP 23 P UMP S 23 DIS CH ARGE D IS CHARGE C HECK 21/22 /23 DI SCHA RGE TO STA RT AC POW ER FA ILS MDP 23 TO S TAR T DUE T O T & M    MDP 23 TO RUN CHE C K VA LVE V ALVE S CHE CK VA LVE S      MD PS GIV EN A MDP 23 A FTE R LOOP  T& M SWS-CKV-CC-SW23 SWS-CKV-CF -ALL SWS-CKV-CF-SWNESS SWS-MDP-CF-FSALL DIV-6A-AC SWS-MDP-FS-23 SWS-MDP-TM -23 SWS-XHE-XM-MDP SWS-XHE-XR-MDP23 SW S-MDP-FR-23 SW S-MDP23-PWR FA ILURE TO ALIGN DI VISION BUS ALT ER NA TE S AF E DC-2 4 DC POW E R S HUTDOW N P OW E R FA ILS S UPP LIES SSS-XHE-XE-ALIG N DIV-24-DC SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE 1
-
FIGURE 1D IR No. 247/02-010 IR No. 247/02-010
Failure of CCW MDP-21 to Start (CCW-MDP-FS-MDP21). This event was set to 1.0.


F AILURE OF SW S ESSENT IAL HEA DER S WS -ESS EN SW S HOUSE E VENT F AIL URE OF E SSENT IA L  CCF OF SWS PUMPS  CCF OF SW S PUMP  CCF OF S WS PUMP S CCF OF SWS PUMPS SW S MDPs  24 2
-
                  / 5/ 26  STRAI NERS  24 2
Failure of CCW MDP-22 to Start (CCW-MDP-FS-MDP22). This event was set to 1.0.
                      / 5/2 6 STRAINERS T ORUN S WS- HE  S WS -ESS -1  S WS -MDP-CF-SW ESS  SWS -STR- CF-ALL SWS -STR-CF-SW ESS S WS -MDP-C F-FRA LL F AIL URE OF SW S        FAILURE OF SW S        FAILURE OF SWS M DP-2 4        MDP -2 6        MDP-25 S WS -MDP24        S WS -MD P26        S WS -MDP25 F AILURE OF SW S F AI LURE OF SW S      FAILURE OF POW ER      F AILURE OF SW S  CCF OF SWS PUMPS  CCF OF SWS PUMPS CCF OF S WS PUMP S FAILURE OF S WS F A ILURE OF SW S DIV ISIONBUS DIV IS ION3 A MDP- 24 DURING MDP 24 TO RUN      T O SW S MDP 24    PUMPS 25 DISCHARGE  DISCHARGE CHECK  2 4/2 5/26 DIS CHARGE T O ST ART MDP 2 5 TO RUN MDP 2 5 T OS T ART DC-23 DC POWER AC POWER FAI LS LOOP              CHECK VALVE  VAL VES  CHECK VA LVES      FAI LS S WS- MDP24-1 S WS-MDP-FR-24      S WS -MDP24-PW R    S WS -CKV -CC -SW 25  SWS -CKV -CF-A LL S WS -CKV -CF-S WE SS SWS -MDP-CF-FSA LL SWS -MDP- FR-25 SWS -MDP-FS -25 DIV-23-D C DIV-3A -AC F AI LURE T O AL IGN    F AIL URE OF SW S  CCF OF SWS PUMPS  CCF OF SW S P UMPS        OPERAT OR FAILS DIV I SIONBUS SW S MDP-24 L OOP    SW S MDP-24 F A ILURES  ALT ERNATE SAF E  DIVISION5 A        CCF OF SWS PUMPS FAILURE O F SWS FAILURE OF S WS SW S MDP 2 3 UNAVAILABLE TO REST ORE SW S  DIVISION6 A F LAGS    TO START    A C POWER F AILS  PUMPS 26 DISCHARGE  2 4/25 /2 6 DISCHARGE 2 4/25 /2 6 DISCHARGE  T O ST A RT MDP 2 6 T ORUN MDP 26 T O ST ART DUE T OT & M  DC-24 DC POWE R AC POWER FAILS SHUTDOW NP OW ER    CHECK VAL VE  CHECK VALVES  CHE CK VALV ES        MDP 26 AF TER FAIL S SUPPLIE S                  T &M S WS- MDP24-3    S WS- MDP24-2  S SS-X HE- XE-A LIGN  D IV-5A-A C  S WS -CKV -CC-SW 26 S WS -CKV -CF-S WE SS SWS -CKV -CF-S WE SS S WS -MDP-CF-FSA LL SWS -MDP-FR -26 SWS -MDP- FS-26 SWS -MDP-TM-26 SWS -XH E-XR-MDP26 DIV-24-DC DIV-6A- AC LOSS OF OF FS ITE LO SS OF DIV  F AIL URE OF SW S CCF OF SWS PUMPS  CCF OF SW S PUMPS  CCF OF SWS PUMPS F AILURE OF SW S  DIV IS IONBUS POWER HOUSE E VENT 5 A OF FSIT E P OWER  PUMP S 24 DISCHARGE DISCHARGE CHECK  24 /25 2
          / 6 DISCHARGE  T OST ART  MDP 2 4 T OST ART  DC-21 DC POWER FL AG  CHECK VAL VE VALV ES  CHECK VALVES      FA ILS LOSP  LOSP-5A  S WS- CKV -CC-SW24 S WS- CKV -CF-A LL S WS -CKV -CF-S WES S  S WS- MDP-CF-FSALL S WS -MD P-FS -24  DIV-21-DC SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE 1
IR No. 247/02-010 FIGURE 1E IR No. 247/02-010


TRANSIENT REACTOR AUXILIARY MAIN NO PORVs BLEED HIGH SECONDARY RCS RESIDUAL HIGH TRIP FEEDWATER FEEDWATER PORVs CLOSE PORTION PRESSURE CO OLING COOLDO WN HEAT PRESSURE DURING OPEN  OF F & B INJECTION RECOVERED REMOVAL RECIRCULAT ION T RANSIENT  COOLING IE-TRANS RT AFW MFW -T PORV PORV-RES BLEED HPI SGCOOL COOLDO WN RHR HPR # END-STATE 1 OK 2 OK 3 OK 4 OK SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE 5 CD 6 OK 7 CD 8 CD 9 OK 10 OK 11 OK POR V-1      12 OK 13 CD 14 OK 15 CD 16 CD 17 OK 18 OK IR No. 247/02-010 1          19 CD 20 CD 21 CD IR No. 247/02-010 22 T ATWS FIGURE 2 - TRANS SEQUENCE 19
-
Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 (CVC-PDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 21 to Run (CVC-PDP-FR-21). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 to Run (CVC-PDP-FR-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 to Start (CVC-PDP-FS-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of HPI MDP-22 (HPI-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of HPI MDP-23 (HPI-MDP-FC-23). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of HPI MDP-22 (HPI-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
RHR MDP-22 Fails (RHR-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
RHR MDP-22 Fails to Run (RHR-MDP-FR-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
RHR MDP-22 Fails to Start (RHR-MDP-FS-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-21). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-25). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-26). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP21). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP25). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP26). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-21). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-22). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-25). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-26). This event was set to 1.0.
 
-
Failure to Align Alternate Safe Shutdown Power Supplies (SSS-XHE-XE-Align).
 
This event was set to 1.0E-002.
 
-
Transient Initiating Event (IE-TRANS). This initiating event was set to 5.6E-003.
 
-
All other initiating events were set to zero.
 

Model update No updates were made to the SPAR model, except clarification of fault trees for the alignment of the alternate safe shutdown system (see Figures 1A-1E).
 
IR No. 247/02-010 References 1.
 
EA-02-162, Indian Point Unit 2 - NRC Supplemental/Problem Identification and Resolution Inspection Report No. 50-247/02-010n Number, dated August 28, 2002.
 
2.
 
J. K. Knudsen and R. F. Buell, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Model for Indian Point Unit 2, Revision 3i, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, May 2002.
 
3.
 
R.W.Budnitz, et al., Development of a Methodology for Analyzing Precursors to Earthquake-Induced and Fire-Induced Accident Precursors, NUREG/CR-6544, U.S.
 
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, April 1998.
 
4.
 
J.R. Houghton and D. M. Rasmuson, NRC Report RES/OERAB/S02-01, Fire Events Update of U.S. Operating Experience, 1986-1999, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, January 200 IR No. 247/02-010
 
Table Conditional Probability Associated with Highest Probability Sequence (Point Estimate)
Event Tree Sequence Conditional Core Damage probability (CCDP)
TRANS
 
6.7E-06 TOTAL All Sequences 7.4E-06 Table 2 Event tree sequence logic for dominant sequence Event Tree Name Sequence no.
 
Logic (/ denotes success; see Table 2b. for top event names TRANS
 
/RT, AFW, MFW-T, /BLEED, /HPI, SGCOOL, HPR Table 2 Definitions of sequence logic elements listed in Table 2a.
 
AFW No or insufficient AFW flow BLEED Failure of Bleed portion of Feed and Bleed cooling SGCOOL Failure of secondary cooling HPI No or insufficient flow from HPI system HPR No or insufficient HPR flow RHR No or insufficient flow from RHR system RT Reactor fails to trip during transient Table 3 Conditional cut sets for dominant sequence (Point Estimate)
Event tree: TRANS Sequence 19 CCDP Percent Contribution Minimum cut sets1 1.6E-006 23.5 PCS-XHE-XO-SEC SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN AFW-MDP-FR-23 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 AFW-TDP-FR-22 SWS-MDP-FR-21 SWS-MDP-FR-22 1.6E-006 23.5 PCS-XHE-XO-SEC SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN AFW-MDP-FR-22 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 AFW-TDP-FR-22 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21 CCW-MDP-FC-MDP22 6.7E-006 Total2 NOTES:
1.
 
See Table 4 for definitions and probabilities for the base events.
 
2.
 
Total CDP includes all other cut sets (including those not shown in this table).
 

IR No. 247/02-010 Table Definitions and probabilities for modified and dominant basic events Event name Description Probability/
Frequency Modified IE-LDC22 LOSS OF DC Bus 22 INITIATING EVENT FREQUENCY 0.00 YES1 IE-LLOCA LARGE LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-LOCCW LOSS OF COMPONENT COOLING WATER INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-LOop LOSS OF OFFSITE POWER INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-LOSWS LOSS OF SERVICE WATER INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-MLOCA MEDIUM LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-RHR-DIS-V RHR DISCHARGE ISLOCA OCCURS WITH REACTOR AT POWER OVER 1 YEAR 0.00 YES1 IE-RHR-SUC-V RHR SUCTION ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-SGTR STEAM GENERATOR TUBE RAPTURE 0.00 YES1 IE-SI-CLDIS-V SI COLD LEG ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-SI-HLDIS-V SI HOT LEG ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-SLOCA SMALL BREAK LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-TRAN INITIATING EVENT-TRANSIENT 5.6E-03 YES1 AFW-MDP-FR-23 AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 23 FAILS TO RUN 1.00 YES2 AFW-MDP-FS-23 AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 23 FAILS TO START 1.00 YES2 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 OPERATOR FAILS TO RECOVER MDP23 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FC-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP22 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FS-MDP21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 TO START 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FS-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 TO START 1.00 YES2 CVC-PDP-FC-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 1.00 YES2 CVC-PDP-FR-21 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 21 TO RUN 1.00 YES8 CVC-PDP-FR-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 TO RUN 1.00 YES8 CVC-PDP-FS-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 TO START 1.00 YES2 HPI-MDP-FC-22 FAILURE OF HPI MDP-22 1.00 YES2 HPI-MDP-FC-23 FAILURE OF HPI MDP-23 1.00 YES2 RHR-MDP-FC-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS 1.00 YES2 RHR-MDP-FR-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS TO RUN 1.00 YES2
 
Event name Description Probability/
Frequency Modified

IR No. 247/02-010 RHR-MDP-FS-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-XHE-XE-ALIGN FAILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN SYSTEM 1.0E-02 YES2 AFW-TDP-FR-22 AFW TURBINE DRIVEN PUMP FAILS TO RUN 2.8E-02 NO PCS-XHE-XO-SEC OPERATOR FAILS TO ESTABLISH SECONDARY COOLING 2.0E-01 NO Notes:
1.
 
The TRANS initiating event frequency was replaced with the smoke frequenc All other initiating event frequencies were set to zero.
 
2.
 
Basic events were changed to reflect condition being analyze.
 
AFW-MDP21 AFW-CKV-CC-DIS21 AFW-CKV-CC-SUC21 AFW-MDP-CF-AB AFW-MDP-TM-21 AFW-MDP21-FR-F AFW-MDP-FR-21 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR21 AFW-MDP21-FS-F AFW-MDP-FS-21 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFS21 AFW-MDP21-PWR SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN DIV-3A-AC DIV-23-DC DIVISION BUS DC-23 DC POWER FAILS AFW MDP 21 FAILS TO RUN AFW MDP 21 FAILS TO START FAILURE OF POWER TO AFW MDP 21 FAILURE O F AFW MDP-21 DIVISION 3A AC POWER FAILS AFW MDP 21 DISCH CHECK VALVE FAILS TO OPEN OPERATO R FAILS TO RECOVER AFW MDP 21 (FAILS TO RUN)
OPERATOR FAILS TO RECOVER AFW MDP 21 (FAILS TO START)
AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 21 FAILS TO START AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 21 FAILS TO RUN AFW MDP 21 UNAVAILABLE DUE TO TEST AND MAINTENANCE AFW MDP 21 SUCTION CHECK VALVE FAILS TO OPEN FAILURE TO ALIG N ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN POWER SUPPLIES COMMON CAUSE FAILURE OF AFW MOTOR DRIVEN PUMPS FIGURE 1A
 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010
 
C CW C CW-1 CCW-HTX CCW -MDP-CF-FRALL CCW-TN K-FC-SURGE CCW-MDP21 CC W-MDP-FR-MD P21 D IV-5A-AC CCW-MDP21-1 CCW -MDP21-3 CCW-MDP21-2 LOSP LOSP-5A CCW -MDP-C F-FSALL C CW-MDP-FS-MDP21 CCW-CKV-CC-MDP21 CCW-CKV-CF-MDPS DIV-21-DC CCW-MD P22 CCW -MDP-FC-MDP22 DI V-2A-AC CCW-MD P-CF-FSALL CCW -CKV-CF-MDPS DIV-22-DC CCW-MD P-TM-MDP22 C CW-XHE-XR-MDP22 C CW-MDP23 CC W-MDP-FC-MDP23 DIV-6A-AC CCW -MDP-CF-FSALL C CW-CKV-CF-MDPS DIV-24-DC CCW-MDP-TM-MD P23 CCW-XHE-XR-MDP23 CCW -HE CCW -MDP23-PWR SSS-XH E-XE-ALI GN FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF CCW HEAT EXCHANGERS FAILURE OF CCW MDPs CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO RUN FAILURE OF CCW S URGE TANK LOSS OF OFFS ITE POWER HOUSE EVENT LOSS OF DIV 5A OFFSITE POW ER FLAG FA ILURE OF CCW MDP-21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP -21 TO RUN DIVISION 5A A C POW ER FAILS FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 DURING LOOP CCW MDP-21 FAILURES TO START CCW MDP-21 LOOP FLA GS CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO START FAILURE OF CCW MDP -21 TO START FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 DISCHARGE CHECK VALV E CCF OF CCW MDPs DISCHARGE CHECK VALVE S DIVIS ION BUS DC-21 DC POWE R FAILS FAILURE OF CCW MDP -22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 DIVISION 2A A C POWER FAILS CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO START CCF OF CCW MDPs DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES DIVISION BUS DC-22 DC P OW ER F AILS CCW MDP-22 UNA VAILABLE DUE TO T & M OPERATOR FAILS TO RESTORE CCW MDP-22 AFTE R T & M FAILURE OF CCW MDP -23 FAILURE OF CCW MDP -23 DIVISION 6A AC POW ER FAILS CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO START CCF OF CCW MDPs DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES DIV ISION BUS DC-24 DC POWER FAILS CCW MDP-23 UNA VAILABLE DUE TO T & M OPERATOR FA ILS TO RESTORE CCW MDP-23 A FTER T & M CCW HOUS E EVENT FAILURE OF POWE R TO CCW MDP 23 FAILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOW N POW ER SUPPLIES FIGURE 1B 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010
 
RCP-CVC RC P-CVC -2 CVC -PDP-CF-FRALL CVC-PD P-FR-21 DIV-5A-AC R CP-CVC-21 CVC-XHE-XM-BCKCW C CW R CP-CVC-3 C VC-CKV-CF-2223 CVC-PDP-CF-FRALL C VC-PD P-CF-FS223 CVC-PDP-FC -22 DIV-3A-AC RCP-CVC-22 C VC-XH E-XM-BCKCW CCW RCP-CVC-4 C VC-CKV-CF-2223 CVC-PDP-CF-FRALL CVC-PDP-CF-FS223 CVC-PDP-FC-23 RCP-CVC-23 CVC-XHE-XM-BCKCW CCW RCP-CVC-5 SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN DIV-6A-AC FAILURE OF CVC PUMP 23 SEAL COOLING FAILURE OF CVC PUMP S EAL COOLING FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMP 23 FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMP 22 FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMP 21 FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMPS TO PROVIDE RCP COOLING FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF CCW TO P ROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF P DP 22 LUBE OIL COOLING DIV ISION 5A AC POWER FAILS DIV ISION 6A A C POWE R FAILS FA ILURE OF POWER TO CHA RGING P UMP
 
DIVISION 3A AC POWER FAILS CCF OF CVC PUMP 22/23 DISCH CHECK VALVES CCF OF CVC PUMP 22/23 DISCH CHECK VALVES CCF OF POSITIVE DISP LACEME NT PUMPS 22/23 TO START CCF OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP S 22/23 TO START CCF OF P OSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMPS TO RUN CCF OF POSITIVE DISPLA CEMENT PUMPS TO RUN CCF OF POSITIVE DIS PLACEMENT PUMPS TO RUN FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 23 FA ILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN POW ER SUPPLIE S FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACE MENT PUMP 22 OPERA TOR FAILS TO ALIGN CITY W ATER F OR SEAL COOLING OPERATOR FAILS TO A LIGN CITY WATE R FOR SE AL COOLING OPERATOR FAILS TO ALIGN CITY WA TER FOR SEAL COOLING FA ILURE OF POSITIVE DIS PLACEMENT PUMP 21 FIGURE 1C 1 IR No. 247/02-010
 
SWS-MDP23 SWS-CKV-CC-SW23 SWS-CKV-CF-ALL SWS-CKV-CF-SWNESS SWS-MDP-CF-FSALL SW S-MDP-FR-23 SWS-MDP-FS-23 SWS-MDP-TM-23 SWS-XHE-XM-MDP SWS-XHE-XR-MDP23 DIV-24-DC SW S-MDP23-PWR SSS-XHE-XE-ALIG N DIV-6A-AC FA ILURE OF SW S MDP-23 DI VISION BUS DC-2 4 DC POW E R FA ILS DI VISION 6A AC POW ER FA ILS FAIL URE OF POW ER TO SW S M DP 23 OPE RATOR FA ILS T O RE STORE S W S MDP 23 A FTE R T & M S W S MDP 23 UNAV AILA BLE DUE T O T & M FA ILURE OF SW S P UMP S 23 DIS CH ARGE CHE C K VA LVE FA ILURE OF SW S MDP 23 TO S TAR T FAILU RE OF S W S MDP 23 TO RUN CC F OF SW S PUM PS TO STA RT C CF OF SW S P UMP S D IS CHARGE C HECK V ALVE S CCF OF S W S PUMPS 21/22 /23 DI SCHA RGE CHE CK VA LVE S FA ILURE TO ALIGN ALT ER NA TE S AF E S HUTDOW N P OW E R S UPP LIES OPE RA TOR FAI LS TO S TART S W S MD PS GIV EN A LOOP FIGURE 1D 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010
 
S WS -ESS EN S WS-HE S WS -MDP-C F-FRA LL S WS -MDP-CF-SW ESS SWS -STR-CF-ALL SWS -STR-CF-SW ESS S WS -ESS -1 S WS -MDP24 S WS-MDP-FR-24 S WS-MDP24-1 S WS-MDP24-2 S WS-CKV -CC-SW24 S WS-CKV -CF-A LL S WS -CKV -CF-S WES S S WS-MDP-CF-FSALL S WS -MD P-FS -24 DIV-21-DC S WS-MDP24-3 LOSP LOSP-5A S WS -MDP24-PW R S SS-X HE-XE-A LIGN D IV-5A-A C S WS -MDP25 S WS -CKV -CC -SW 25 SWS -CKV -CF-A LL S WS -CKV -CF-S WE SS SWS -MDP-CF-FSA LL SWS -MDP-FR-25 SWS -MDP-FS -25 DIV-23-D C DIV-3A -AC S WS -MD P26 S WS -CKV -CC-SW 26 S WS -CKV -CF-S WE SS SWS -CKV -CF-S WE SS S WS -MDP-CF-FSA LL SWS -MDP-FR -26 SWS -MDP-FS-26 SWS -MDP-TM-26 SWS -XH E-XR-MDP26 DIV-24-DC DIV-6A-AC FAILURE OF SW S MDP-2 6 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 FAIL URE OF ESSENTIAL SW S MDPs SW S MDP-24 L OOP F LAGS SW S MDP-24 FAILURES TO START FAILURE OF SW S MDP-24 DURING LOOP FAIL URE OF SW S M DP-2 4 FAILURE OF SW S ESSENTIAL HEADER DIVISION BUS DC-21 DC POWER FAILS DIVI SION BUS DC-24 DC POWER FAIL S DIVISION 5 A AC POWER FAILS DIVISION 6 A AC POWER FAILS DIVISION BUS DC-23 DC POWER FAI LS FAILURE OF POW ER TO SW S MDP 24 DIVISION 3 A AC POWER FAI LS OPERATOR FAILS TO RESTORE SW S MDP 26 AFTER T & M SW S MDP 2 3 UNAVAILABLE DUE TO T & M LOSS OF OFFSITE POWER HOUSE EVENT F AIL URE OF SW S PUMPS 26 DISCHARGE CHECK VAL VE FAILURE OF SWS MDP 26 TO ST ART FAILURE O F SWS MDP 2 6 TO RUN FAILURE OF SW S PUMPS 25 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVE FAILURE OF SW S MDP 2 5 TO START FAILURE OF SWS MDP 2 5 TO RUN FAIL URE OF SW S PUMPS 24 DISCHARGE CHECK VAL VE F AILURE OF SW S MDP 2 4 TO START FAI LURE OF SW S MDP 24 TO RUN CCF OF SWS PUMPS T O START CCF OF SWS PUMPS TO START CCF OF SWS PUMPS TO START CCF OF SW S PUMP STRAI NERS CCF OF SWS PUMPS T O RUN CCF OF SWS PUMPS DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS DISCHARGE CHECK VAL VES LO SS OF DIV 5 A OFFSITE POWER FL AG SW S HOUSE EVENT FAI LURE TO AL IGN ALT ERNATE SAFE SHUTDOW N POW ER SUPPLIES CCF OF SW S PUMPS 24 /25 /2 6 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS 2 4/2 5/26 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS 2 4/25 /2 6 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SW S PUMPS 2 4/25 /2 6 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS 24 /2 5/2 6 STRAINERS CCF OF SWS PUMPS 24 /2 5/ 26 FIGURE 1E 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010
 
HPR HIGH PRESSURE RECIRCULATION RHR RESIDUAL HEAT REMOVAL COOLDOWN RCS COOLDOWN SGCOOL SECONDARY COOLING RECOVERED HPI HIGH PRESSURE INJECTION BLEED BLEED PORTION OF F & B COOLING PORV-RES PORVs CLOSE PORV NO PORVs OPEN MFW -T MAIN FEEDWATER DURING TRANSIENT AFW AUXILIARY FEEDWATER RT REACTOR TRIP IE-TRANS TRANSIENT
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CD 22 T ATWS PORV-1 FIGURE 2 - TRANS SEQUENCE 19 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010
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Revision as of 00:33, 13 December 2024

Final ASP Analysis - Indian Point 2 (IR 050002472002010)
ML20112J068
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Site: Indian Point Entergy icon.png
Issue date: 05/12/2020
From: Christopher Hunter
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References
IR 2002010
Download: ML20112J068 (14)


Text

Attachment 1

IR No. 247/02-010 Final Precursor Analysis Accident Sequence Precursor Program --- Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Indian Point, Unit 2 Moderate degradation of control room west wall could allow smoke and gases to penetrate the control room in the event of a turbine building fire

'DWH July 19,

2002

,5 50-247/02-

0HDQ &'3 [

7.1 x 10-6 April 30, 2003 Condition Summary On July 19, 2002, the NRC completed an inspection of selected areas of the Indian Point Unit 2 facility (Ref. 1). The inspection identified a moderate degradation of the control room west wall fire prior to February 2002, in that there were passages in the wall that could allow smoke and gases to infiltrate into the control room in the event of a turbine building fire and could cause a control room evacuation and use of alternative safe shutdown systems (Ref. 1).

Cause The west wall did not conform to the 3-hour fire barrier design requirement Recovery Opportunity The postulated fire in the turbine building, applicable to the turbine generator lube oil system or the main feedwater pump lube oil system, could generate sufficient smoke to cause infiltration into the control room and its subsequent evacuation after a successful reactor trip/turbine tri The recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment using the alternate safe shutdown system (ASSS) would prevent core damag Analysis Results



Importance The risk significance of the control room evacuation with the recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment with the ASSS is determined using the SPAR Rev. 3i model for Indian Point 2 (Ref.2). The analyses was with the transient initiating frequency (IE-TRANS) replaced by the combined smoke frequency of the turbine generator lube oil fires and main feedwater pump lube oil fire This method is similar to that outlined in NUREG/CR-6544, Development of a Methodology for Analyzing Precursors for Earthquake-Induced or Fire-Induced Accident Sequences, Section 3.7 (Re ). For this analysis, the increase in point estimate change in conditional core damage probability ( CDP) is 7.4x10-6 and the mean CDP is 7.1x10- The uncertainty about the mean is:

5% bound, 1.3x10-7 and 95% bound, 2.8x10-5.

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program acceptance threshold is an importance ( CDP) of 1x10-6.



Dominant sequence (TRANS)

IR No. 247/02-010 The dominant sequence is Transient Sequence 1 The events and important component failures in this sequence include:

-

Reactor trips successfully during transient

-

No or Insufficient AFW flow

-

Failure of main feedwater system during transient

-

Successful Bleed portion of feed and bleed

-

Adequate flow from HPI system

-

Failure of secondary cooling

-

No or insufficient flow from HPR system



Results tables

-

Table 1 provides the importance values for the dominant sequences.

-

Table 2a provides the event tree sequence logic for the dominant sequence.

-

Table 2b defines the nomenclature used in Table 2a.

-

Table 3 provides the additional cut sets for the dominant sequence.

-

Table 4 provides the definitions and probabilities for selected events.

Modeling Assumptions



ASP analysis approach Condition duratio The control room west wall barrier was in a degraded condition since for a period greater than one yea 

SPAR model used in the analysis The Revision 3i (interim) of the Indian Point 2 Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR)

model (Ref. 2) was used for this assessmen For this initiating event analysis, the IE-TRANS frequency is replaced with the smoke frequency (5.6E-3) and all other initiating event frequencies are set to zer External events are not included in this analysis.



Smoke-induced analysis considerations The smoke-induced analysis is based on NUREG/CR-6544 (Ref. 3). For this analysis the control room is assumed to be evacuated after successful reactor trip and one train of safe shutdown equipment is operated using the ASS The IE-TRANS frequency is replaced with the smoke frequency, based on smoke produced from turbine generator lube oil fires, severe smoke events resulting in turbine building evacuation, and smoke produced from main feedwater pump lube oil fire These events were evaluated as severe enough to possibly result in smoke ingestion into the control room and subsequent control room evacuation.

-

Initiating Smoke Frequency - The initiating smoke frequency (Fis) was developed from NRC Report RES/OERAB/S02-01 database (Ref. 4) for power operation fire

IR No. 247/02-010 events (1986-1999 with updates through 2001). For Indian Point 2, the smoke frequency (FS) used was 5.6 x 10-3 based on:

Fis =

(No. of Turbine Generator lube oil fires + No. Turbine Building smoke evacuation events + Jeffreys noninformative prior) ÷ No. Turbine Generators x No. of reactor-years of power operation for the period) +

(No. of main feedwater pump lube oil fires ÷ No. Main feedwater pumps x No. of reactor-years of power operation for the period).

Fis =

(5 +1 ) + 2 + Jeffreys Prior = 8 +.5 = 5.6 x 10-3

(1 x 1310) (2.34)(1310)

1529 Note: The number of smoke events in the numerator was maintained and the denominator (component-years) was adjusted/weighted before a Bayesian update was made using a Jeffreys noninformative prior (0.5 smoke events).



Unique system considerations The plant design provides an alternate safe shutdown system to shut the plant down with one train of safe shutdown equipment in the event of control room evacuation.



Modifications to event tree and fault tree models

-

The event trees were not modified.

-

The fault trees were modified to include/clarify the recovery of one train of safe shutdown equipment, as applicable, using the ASSS (see Figures 1A-1E).



Initiating event probability changes The TRANS initiating event (IE-TRANS) frequency was replaced by the smoke frequency (5.6 x 10-3). All other initiating events frequencies were set to zer Figure 2 shows the event tree for the smoke-induced transient analysis dominant sequence.



Base event probability changes Table 4 provides the basic events that were modified to reflect the event condition being analyze Equipment not controlled from the ASSS is assumed be inoperable and assigned a value of 1.0 in the model.



Initiating event assessment probability changes

-

AFW Motor-Driven Pump 23 Fails to Run (AFW-MDP-FR-23). This event was set to 1.0.

-

AFW Motor-Driven Pump 23 Fails to Start (AFW-MDP-FS-23). This event was set to IR No. 247/02-010

-

Operator Fails to Recover AFWMDP 23 (Fails to Run) (AFW-XHE-XL-MDP23).

This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of CCW MDP 22 (CCW-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of CCW MDP-21 to Run (CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of CCW MDP 22 to Run (CCW-MDP-FR-MDP22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of CCW MDP-21 to Start (CCW-MDP-FS-MDP21). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of CCW MDP-22 to Start (CCW-MDP-FS-MDP22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 (CVC-PDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 21 to Run (CVC-PDP-FR-21). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 to Run (CVC-PDP-FR-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of Positive Displacement Pump 22 to Start (CVC-PDP-FS-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of HPI MDP-22 (HPI-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of HPI MDP-23 (HPI-MDP-FC-23). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of HPI MDP-22 (HPI-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

RHR MDP-22 Fails (RHR-MDP-FC-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

RHR MDP-22 Fails to Run (RHR-MDP-FR-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

RHR MDP-22 Fails to Start (RHR-MDP-FS-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-21). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-25). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-26). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP21). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP25). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Run (SWS-MDP-FR-MDP26). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 21 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-21). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 22 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-22). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 25 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-25). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure of SWS MDP 26 to Start (SWS-MDP-FS-26). This event was set to 1.0.

-

Failure to Align Alternate Safe Shutdown Power Supplies (SSS-XHE-XE-Align).

This event was set to 1.0E-002.

-

Transient Initiating Event (IE-TRANS). This initiating event was set to 5.6E-003.

-

All other initiating events were set to zero.



Model update No updates were made to the SPAR model, except clarification of fault trees for the alignment of the alternate safe shutdown system (see Figures 1A-1E).

IR No. 247/02-010 References 1.

EA-02-162, Indian Point Unit 2 - NRC Supplemental/Problem Identification and Resolution Inspection Report No. 50-247/02-010n Number, dated August 28, 2002.

2.

J. K. Knudsen and R. F. Buell, Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Model for Indian Point Unit 2, Revision 3i, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, May 2002.

3.

R.W.Budnitz, et al., Development of a Methodology for Analyzing Precursors to Earthquake-Induced and Fire-Induced Accident Precursors, NUREG/CR-6544, U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, April 1998.

4.

J.R. Houghton and D. M. Rasmuson, NRC Report RES/OERAB/S02-01, Fire Events Update of U.S. Operating Experience, 1986-1999, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, January 200 IR No. 247/02-010

Table Conditional Probability Associated with Highest Probability Sequence (Point Estimate)

Event Tree Sequence Conditional Core Damage probability (CCDP)

TRANS

6.7E-06 TOTAL All Sequences 7.4E-06 Table 2 Event tree sequence logic for dominant sequence Event Tree Name Sequence no.

Logic (/ denotes success; see Table 2b. for top event names TRANS

/RT, AFW, MFW-T, /BLEED, /HPI, SGCOOL, HPR Table 2 Definitions of sequence logic elements listed in Table 2a.

AFW No or insufficient AFW flow BLEED Failure of Bleed portion of Feed and Bleed cooling SGCOOL Failure of secondary cooling HPI No or insufficient flow from HPI system HPR No or insufficient HPR flow RHR No or insufficient flow from RHR system RT Reactor fails to trip during transient Table 3 Conditional cut sets for dominant sequence (Point Estimate)

Event tree: TRANS Sequence 19 CCDP Percent Contribution Minimum cut sets1 1.6E-006 23.5 PCS-XHE-XO-SEC SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN AFW-MDP-FR-23 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 AFW-TDP-FR-22 SWS-MDP-FR-21 SWS-MDP-FR-22 1.6E-006 23.5 PCS-XHE-XO-SEC SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN AFW-MDP-FR-22 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 AFW-TDP-FR-22 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21 CCW-MDP-FC-MDP22 6.7E-006 Total2 NOTES:

1.

See Table 4 for definitions and probabilities for the base events.

2.

Total CDP includes all other cut sets (including those not shown in this table).



IR No. 247/02-010 Table Definitions and probabilities for modified and dominant basic events Event name Description Probability/

Frequency Modified IE-LDC22 LOSS OF DC Bus 22 INITIATING EVENT FREQUENCY 0.00 YES1 IE-LLOCA LARGE LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-LOCCW LOSS OF COMPONENT COOLING WATER INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-LOop LOSS OF OFFSITE POWER INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-LOSWS LOSS OF SERVICE WATER INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-MLOCA MEDIUM LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-RHR-DIS-V RHR DISCHARGE ISLOCA OCCURS WITH REACTOR AT POWER OVER 1 YEAR 0.00 YES1 IE-RHR-SUC-V RHR SUCTION ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-SGTR STEAM GENERATOR TUBE RAPTURE 0.00 YES1 IE-SI-CLDIS-V SI COLD LEG ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-SI-HLDIS-V SI HOT LEG ISLOCA INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-SLOCA SMALL BREAK LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT INITIATING EVENT 0.00 YES1 IE-TRAN INITIATING EVENT-TRANSIENT 5.6E-03 YES1 AFW-MDP-FR-23 AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 23 FAILS TO RUN 1.00 YES2 AFW-MDP-FS-23 AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 23 FAILS TO START 1.00 YES2 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR23 OPERATOR FAILS TO RECOVER MDP23 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FC-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP22 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FR-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FS-MDP21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 TO START 1.00 YES2 CCW-MDP-FS-MDP22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 TO START 1.00 YES2 CVC-PDP-FC-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 1.00 YES2 CVC-PDP-FR-21 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 21 TO RUN 1.00 YES8 CVC-PDP-FR-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 TO RUN 1.00 YES8 CVC-PDP-FS-22 FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 22 TO START 1.00 YES2 HPI-MDP-FC-22 FAILURE OF HPI MDP-22 1.00 YES2 HPI-MDP-FC-23 FAILURE OF HPI MDP-23 1.00 YES2 RHR-MDP-FC-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS 1.00 YES2 RHR-MDP-FR-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS TO RUN 1.00 YES2

Event name Description Probability/

Frequency Modified



IR No. 247/02-010 RHR-MDP-FS-22 RHR MDP-22 FAILS TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FR-MDP26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO RUN 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS21 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-21 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS22 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-22 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS25 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-MDP-FS26 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-26 TO START 1.00 YES2 SWS-XHE-XE-ALIGN FAILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN SYSTEM 1.0E-02 YES2 AFW-TDP-FR-22 AFW TURBINE DRIVEN PUMP FAILS TO RUN 2.8E-02 NO PCS-XHE-XO-SEC OPERATOR FAILS TO ESTABLISH SECONDARY COOLING 2.0E-01 NO Notes:

1.

The TRANS initiating event frequency was replaced with the smoke frequenc All other initiating event frequencies were set to zero.

2.

Basic events were changed to reflect condition being analyze.

AFW-MDP21 AFW-CKV-CC-DIS21 AFW-CKV-CC-SUC21 AFW-MDP-CF-AB AFW-MDP-TM-21 AFW-MDP21-FR-F AFW-MDP-FR-21 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFR21 AFW-MDP21-FS-F AFW-MDP-FS-21 AFW-XHE-XL-MDPFS21 AFW-MDP21-PWR SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN DIV-3A-AC DIV-23-DC DIVISION BUS DC-23 DC POWER FAILS AFW MDP 21 FAILS TO RUN AFW MDP 21 FAILS TO START FAILURE OF POWER TO AFW MDP 21 FAILURE O F AFW MDP-21 DIVISION 3A AC POWER FAILS AFW MDP 21 DISCH CHECK VALVE FAILS TO OPEN OPERATO R FAILS TO RECOVER AFW MDP 21 (FAILS TO RUN)

OPERATOR FAILS TO RECOVER AFW MDP 21 (FAILS TO START)

AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 21 FAILS TO START AFW MOTOR-DRIVEN PUMP 21 FAILS TO RUN AFW MDP 21 UNAVAILABLE DUE TO TEST AND MAINTENANCE AFW MDP 21 SUCTION CHECK VALVE FAILS TO OPEN FAILURE TO ALIG N ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN POWER SUPPLIES COMMON CAUSE FAILURE OF AFW MOTOR DRIVEN PUMPS FIGURE 1A

 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010

C CW C CW-1 CCW-HTX CCW -MDP-CF-FRALL CCW-TN K-FC-SURGE CCW-MDP21 CC W-MDP-FR-MD P21 D IV-5A-AC CCW-MDP21-1 CCW -MDP21-3 CCW-MDP21-2 LOSP LOSP-5A CCW -MDP-C F-FSALL C CW-MDP-FS-MDP21 CCW-CKV-CC-MDP21 CCW-CKV-CF-MDPS DIV-21-DC CCW-MD P22 CCW -MDP-FC-MDP22 DI V-2A-AC CCW-MD P-CF-FSALL CCW -CKV-CF-MDPS DIV-22-DC CCW-MD P-TM-MDP22 C CW-XHE-XR-MDP22 C CW-MDP23 CC W-MDP-FC-MDP23 DIV-6A-AC CCW -MDP-CF-FSALL C CW-CKV-CF-MDPS DIV-24-DC CCW-MDP-TM-MD P23 CCW-XHE-XR-MDP23 CCW -HE CCW -MDP23-PWR SSS-XH E-XE-ALI GN FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF CCW HEAT EXCHANGERS FAILURE OF CCW MDPs CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO RUN FAILURE OF CCW S URGE TANK LOSS OF OFFS ITE POWER HOUSE EVENT LOSS OF DIV 5A OFFSITE POW ER FLAG FA ILURE OF CCW MDP-21 FAILURE OF CCW MDP -21 TO RUN DIVISION 5A A C POW ER FAILS FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 DURING LOOP CCW MDP-21 FAILURES TO START CCW MDP-21 LOOP FLA GS CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO START FAILURE OF CCW MDP -21 TO START FAILURE OF CCW MDP-21 DISCHARGE CHECK VALV E CCF OF CCW MDPs DISCHARGE CHECK VALVE S DIVIS ION BUS DC-21 DC POWE R FAILS FAILURE OF CCW MDP -22 FAILURE OF CCW MDP-22 DIVISION 2A A C POWER FAILS CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO START CCF OF CCW MDPs DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES DIVISION BUS DC-22 DC P OW ER F AILS CCW MDP-22 UNA VAILABLE DUE TO T & M OPERATOR FAILS TO RESTORE CCW MDP-22 AFTE R T & M FAILURE OF CCW MDP -23 FAILURE OF CCW MDP -23 DIVISION 6A AC POW ER FAILS CCF OF ALL CCW MDPs TO START CCF OF CCW MDPs DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES DIV ISION BUS DC-24 DC POWER FAILS CCW MDP-23 UNA VAILABLE DUE TO T & M OPERATOR FA ILS TO RESTORE CCW MDP-23 A FTER T & M CCW HOUS E EVENT FAILURE OF POWE R TO CCW MDP 23 FAILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOW N POW ER SUPPLIES FIGURE 1B 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010

RCP-CVC RC P-CVC -2 CVC -PDP-CF-FRALL CVC-PD P-FR-21 DIV-5A-AC R CP-CVC-21 CVC-XHE-XM-BCKCW C CW R CP-CVC-3 C VC-CKV-CF-2223 CVC-PDP-CF-FRALL C VC-PD P-CF-FS223 CVC-PDP-FC -22 DIV-3A-AC RCP-CVC-22 C VC-XH E-XM-BCKCW CCW RCP-CVC-4 C VC-CKV-CF-2223 CVC-PDP-CF-FRALL CVC-PDP-CF-FS223 CVC-PDP-FC-23 RCP-CVC-23 CVC-XHE-XM-BCKCW CCW RCP-CVC-5 SSS-XHE-XE-ALIGN DIV-6A-AC FAILURE OF CVC PUMP 23 SEAL COOLING FAILURE OF CVC PUMP S EAL COOLING FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMP 23 FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMP 22 FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMP 21 FAILURE OF CHARGING PUMPS TO PROVIDE RCP COOLING FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF CCW TO PROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF CCW TO P ROVIDE COOLING FAILURE OF P DP 22 LUBE OIL COOLING DIV ISION 5A AC POWER FAILS DIV ISION 6A A C POWE R FAILS FA ILURE OF POWER TO CHA RGING P UMP

DIVISION 3A AC POWER FAILS CCF OF CVC PUMP 22/23 DISCH CHECK VALVES CCF OF CVC PUMP 22/23 DISCH CHECK VALVES CCF OF POSITIVE DISP LACEME NT PUMPS 22/23 TO START CCF OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP S 22/23 TO START CCF OF P OSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMPS TO RUN CCF OF POSITIVE DISPLA CEMENT PUMPS TO RUN CCF OF POSITIVE DIS PLACEMENT PUMPS TO RUN FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMP 23 FA ILURE TO ALIGN ALTERNATE SAFE SHUTDOWN POW ER SUPPLIE S FAILURE OF POSITIVE DISPLACE MENT PUMP 22 OPERA TOR FAILS TO ALIGN CITY W ATER F OR SEAL COOLING OPERATOR FAILS TO A LIGN CITY WATE R FOR SE AL COOLING OPERATOR FAILS TO ALIGN CITY WA TER FOR SEAL COOLING FA ILURE OF POSITIVE DIS PLACEMENT PUMP 21 FIGURE 1C 1 IR No. 247/02-010

SWS-MDP23 SWS-CKV-CC-SW23 SWS-CKV-CF-ALL SWS-CKV-CF-SWNESS SWS-MDP-CF-FSALL SW S-MDP-FR-23 SWS-MDP-FS-23 SWS-MDP-TM-23 SWS-XHE-XM-MDP SWS-XHE-XR-MDP23 DIV-24-DC SW S-MDP23-PWR SSS-XHE-XE-ALIG N DIV-6A-AC FA ILURE OF SW S MDP-23 DI VISION BUS DC-2 4 DC POW E R FA ILS DI VISION 6A AC POW ER FA ILS FAIL URE OF POW ER TO SW S M DP 23 OPE RATOR FA ILS T O RE STORE S W S MDP 23 A FTE R T & M S W S MDP 23 UNAV AILA BLE DUE T O T & M FA ILURE OF SW S P UMP S 23 DIS CH ARGE CHE C K VA LVE FA ILURE OF SW S MDP 23 TO S TAR T FAILU RE OF S W S MDP 23 TO RUN CC F OF SW S PUM PS TO STA RT C CF OF SW S P UMP S D IS CHARGE C HECK V ALVE S CCF OF S W S PUMPS 21/22 /23 DI SCHA RGE CHE CK VA LVE S FA ILURE TO ALIGN ALT ER NA TE S AF E S HUTDOW N P OW E R S UPP LIES OPE RA TOR FAI LS TO S TART S W S MD PS GIV EN A LOOP FIGURE 1D 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010

S WS -ESS EN S WS-HE S WS -MDP-C F-FRA LL S WS -MDP-CF-SW ESS SWS -STR-CF-ALL SWS -STR-CF-SW ESS S WS -ESS -1 S WS -MDP24 S WS-MDP-FR-24 S WS-MDP24-1 S WS-MDP24-2 S WS-CKV -CC-SW24 S WS-CKV -CF-A LL S WS -CKV -CF-S WES S S WS-MDP-CF-FSALL S WS -MD P-FS -24 DIV-21-DC S WS-MDP24-3 LOSP LOSP-5A S WS -MDP24-PW R S SS-X HE-XE-A LIGN D IV-5A-A C S WS -MDP25 S WS -CKV -CC -SW 25 SWS -CKV -CF-A LL S WS -CKV -CF-S WE SS SWS -MDP-CF-FSA LL SWS -MDP-FR-25 SWS -MDP-FS -25 DIV-23-D C DIV-3A -AC S WS -MD P26 S WS -CKV -CC-SW 26 S WS -CKV -CF-S WE SS SWS -CKV -CF-S WE SS S WS -MDP-CF-FSA LL SWS -MDP-FR -26 SWS -MDP-FS-26 SWS -MDP-TM-26 SWS -XH E-XR-MDP26 DIV-24-DC DIV-6A-AC FAILURE OF SW S MDP-2 6 FAILURE OF SWS MDP-25 FAIL URE OF ESSENTIAL SW S MDPs SW S MDP-24 L OOP F LAGS SW S MDP-24 FAILURES TO START FAILURE OF SW S MDP-24 DURING LOOP FAIL URE OF SW S M DP-2 4 FAILURE OF SW S ESSENTIAL HEADER DIVISION BUS DC-21 DC POWER FAILS DIVI SION BUS DC-24 DC POWER FAIL S DIVISION 5 A AC POWER FAILS DIVISION 6 A AC POWER FAILS DIVISION BUS DC-23 DC POWER FAI LS FAILURE OF POW ER TO SW S MDP 24 DIVISION 3 A AC POWER FAI LS OPERATOR FAILS TO RESTORE SW S MDP 26 AFTER T & M SW S MDP 2 3 UNAVAILABLE DUE TO T & M LOSS OF OFFSITE POWER HOUSE EVENT F AIL URE OF SW S PUMPS 26 DISCHARGE CHECK VAL VE FAILURE OF SWS MDP 26 TO ST ART FAILURE O F SWS MDP 2 6 TO RUN FAILURE OF SW S PUMPS 25 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVE FAILURE OF SW S MDP 2 5 TO START FAILURE OF SWS MDP 2 5 TO RUN FAIL URE OF SW S PUMPS 24 DISCHARGE CHECK VAL VE F AILURE OF SW S MDP 2 4 TO START FAI LURE OF SW S MDP 24 TO RUN CCF OF SWS PUMPS T O START CCF OF SWS PUMPS TO START CCF OF SWS PUMPS TO START CCF OF SW S PUMP STRAI NERS CCF OF SWS PUMPS T O RUN CCF OF SWS PUMPS DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS DISCHARGE CHECK VAL VES LO SS OF DIV 5 A OFFSITE POWER FL AG SW S HOUSE EVENT FAI LURE TO AL IGN ALT ERNATE SAFE SHUTDOW N POW ER SUPPLIES CCF OF SW S PUMPS 24 /25 /2 6 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS 2 4/2 5/26 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS 2 4/25 /2 6 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SW S PUMPS 2 4/25 /2 6 DISCHARGE CHECK VALVES CCF OF SWS PUMPS 24 /2 5/2 6 STRAINERS CCF OF SWS PUMPS 24 /2 5/ 26 FIGURE 1E 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010

HPR HIGH PRESSURE RECIRCULATION RHR RESIDUAL HEAT REMOVAL COOLDOWN RCS COOLDOWN SGCOOL SECONDARY COOLING RECOVERED HPI HIGH PRESSURE INJECTION BLEED BLEED PORTION OF F & B COOLING PORV-RES PORVs CLOSE PORV NO PORVs OPEN MFW -T MAIN FEEDWATER DURING TRANSIENT AFW AUXILIARY FEEDWATER RT REACTOR TRIP IE-TRANS TRANSIENT

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CD 22 T ATWS PORV-1 FIGURE 2 - TRANS SEQUENCE 19 1 IR No. 247/02-010 SENSITIVE - NOT FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IR No. 247/02-010