ML102930391

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Exhibit 18 of 21-Deepwater Offshore Wind, a National Opportunity
ML102930391
Person / Time
Site: Seabrook NextEra Energy icon.png
Issue date: 08/17/2010
From: Dagher H
Univ of Maine
To:
NRC/SECY
SECY RAS
Shared Package
ML102930267 List:
References
License Renewal 6, RAS 18941, 50-443-LR
Download: ML102930391 (42)
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Text

Deepwater OffshoreWind ANationalOpport nit ANationalOpportunity August17,2010 Dr.H.J.Dagher,P.E.,Director AdvancedStructuresandCompositesCenter DeepCwind Consortium UniversityofMaine 2075812138hd@umit.maine.edu

Outline 1 UMaine Composites Center

1. UMaine CompositesCenter
2. US&Europeoffshorewind
3. Foundationtypes&floatingplatforms
4. Cost-Canwegetthere?

g

5. Timeline DeepCwind Consortium Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

UMaine AdvancedStructures

& Composites Center

&CompositesCenter Composites Industry Construction Industry

  • EstablishedbyNSFin1996

$30Million Off h Wi d ddi i

  • 140personnel
  • 87,000ft2 ISO17025AccreditedLab OffshoreWindaddition
  • Analysis&DesignPrototyping CodeReports Testing Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

LongestCompositesBridgeintheWorld g

p g

Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

PenobscotNarrowsBridge g

CFRPStrands Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

BridgeinaBackpack g

p

  • Archesinflatedonsite,filledwithconcrete
  • Spinoff: Advanced Infrastructure Technologies LLC
  • Spinoff:AdvancedInfrastructureTechnologies,LLC ArchPlacement DeckingInstallation CompletedBridge Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

TwicetheStateBudget L

M i

LeavesMaine

$5Billion/year LeaveMaine 7

Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

NewEnergyMosaic gy 9 $/kWh 9 $/kWh 9 Publicacceptance?

9 Impactoneconomy?

9 Impact on environment?

9 Impactonenvironment?

8 Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

MaineFamilyBudget Energy~5%

Energy ~20%2 Energy

~40%3 y

g FamilyEnergy1,2 =50%Transportation 40%Heating 10%El i P 10%ElectricPower 1 Source:,Dr.GeorgeHart,UMaine 2 BasedJuly08energycosts 3Assumesthathealthcarecostsdonotgrowpast 30%oftheaveragefamilybudgetin20082018

DeepwaterWind:

LargestUSOceanEnergyResource Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu Source:WalterMusial,NREL(2008)

Maine:ASourceofGreenEnergy fortheNortheastU.S.

149GW offMaine 55million people Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

U.S. ProposedOffshoreWindProjects USOffshoreWindInitiatives Project State MW Capewind MA 468 HullMunicipal MA 15 BuzzardsBay MA 300 RhodeIsland(OER)

RI 400 RhodeIsland(OER)

RI 400 Winergy NY 12 NewJersey(BPU)

NJ 350 Delmarva DE 350 Atlantic Ocean SouthernCompany GA 10 W.E.S.T.

TX 150 CuyahogaCounty OH 20 25 DeepCwind Consortium ME 25 1000 TotalMW 2100 3000 NoneInstalledYet Source:WalterMusial,NREL(2009)

UK-Round3BiddersSelected1/8/10 25 GW 1/4 of UKs Electricity by 2020 25GW,1/4ofUK sElectricityby2020 Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

OffshoreWind Classification ByWaterDepth D H J D h

Source:WalterMusial,NREL(2009) y p

Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

ShallowMonopile Foundations:

230 m Drilled or Driven Most Common 230m,DrilledorDriven,MostCommon Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

ShallowGravityFoundations Middelgrunden 27x2MW 4 8 d

h ThorntonBank60x 5MW 1227.5m waterdepth 48m waterdepth Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

ShallowGravityFoundations:

Seabed Preparation and Installation SeabedPreparationandInstallation Source:TUDelft Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

ShallowGravityFoundations:

Tower Turbine and Blades Installation Tower,TurbineandBladesInstallation 1 Source:TUDelft:ThorntonBank Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

TransitionalWatersFoundations(3060m):

Pile Pile Pile Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

InstalledFoundationTypes(2008)

EuropeanProjects byFoundationType Gravity Multimember Monopiles (most common)

Gravity Monopiles (mostcommon)

Source:TUDelft

FloatingWindTurbines(>200ft):

Design Space Based On Stability DesignSpace BasedOnStability Statoil Hywind Principle Power WinSea BlueH SWAY SWAY Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

StatoilHywind 2.3MW 213 ft to hub 20'27 Diam Rotor Diam 270 213fttohub,20 27 Diam.,RotorDiam 270 Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

OffshoreWindSlenderTubes Compared to Oil & Gas Designs ComparedtoOil&GasDesigns CLASSIC TRUSS CELL TRUSS StatoilHywind Spar (20'27Diameter)

Holstein(149Diameter)

Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

Surviving100YearEvents Coupledaeroelastic/hydrodynamicmodels (J

k NREL)

(Jonkman,NREL)

ModelSimulations m:KIWiI THE UNIVERSITY OF r1rJ MAINE

~

OffshoreFoundationsCostMore HornsRevandNysted (AverageinvestmentperMW) 25%OpportunitiesforCostReductionsBasedon 2009 UK Competition?

1 Source:EWEA,EconomicsofWindEnergy, March2009 2009UKCompetition?

OffshoreWindProductionCosts 10 European Farms (2006 /MWh)1 69.2c/kWh,nowdouble 10EuropeanFarms(2006,/MWh)1 1 Sources:RISØDTU,EWEA,Economicsof WindEnergy,March2009

ExperienceCurvesforLandBasedWind1 10% Learning Rate Could Apply to Offshore Wind?

D 50%

10%LearningRateCouldApplytoOffshoreWind?

Down50%

Constant2006 Currency 1 Source:EWEA,EconomicsofWindEnergy, March2009

DeepCwind Consortium DOE Contract January 2010 DOEContractJanuary2010 35partners Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

UMaineTestSiteTimeline Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

UMaine DeepwaterTestbed p

Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

EcologicalData g

  • 400LayerGIS y
  • Benthicinvertebrates
  • Fish
  • Fish
  • Marinemammals
  • Birdsandbats Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

1/3ScaleModelTest20112012 120 to to hub Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

DesignConditionsatUMaine TestSite g

Wind/Wave Tank UM Deepwater Test Site Commercial Tank TestSite Geometric Scale 1/50 1/3 Full Scale Hs Hmax Vhub Hs Hmax Vhub Hs Hmax Vhub 1yr 0.14 0.26 3.82 2.37 4.40 15.6 7.1 13.2 27.0 50yr 0.20 0.37 5.03 3.33 7.19 20.6 10.0 18.6 35.6 100yr 0.21 0.39 5.16 3.50 7.75 21.1 10.5 19.5 36.5 0.21 0.39 5.16 3.50 7.75 21.1 36.5 H

= Significant Wave Height (average of highest 1/3 waves) (m)

Hs

=SignificantWaveHeight(averageofhighest1/3waves)(m)

Hmax =MaximumIndividualWaveHeight(1.86xHs)perIEC614003(m)

Vhub =MeanWindSpeedatHubusingwindpowerlawexponent=0.14(m/s)

DeploymentPeriod p y Month ProbabilityofExceeding 1/3Scale50yearHs (3.3m) inoneweek Lognormal Weibull Rayleigh Jan 47%

52%

43%

Feb 6 %

69%

Feb 67%

69%

51%

Mar 52%

56%

47%

Apr 42%

47%

42%

May 23%

28%

27%

Jun 5%

7%

9%

Jul 1%

0%

4%

1%

0%

4%

Aug 0%

1%

2%

Sep 7%

4%

12%

Oct 40%

46%

40%

35 Oct 40%

46%

40%

Nov 53%

58%

50%

Dec 73%

73%

59%

35MWTestin2014 Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

25MWSteppingStoneFloatingFarm2016 RFPSeptember1,2010- 5YearstoBuild 1000 MW b 2020 Design,Build,Monitor 1000MWby2020 Maine Bill LD1810, 20year PPA MaineBillLD1810,20 yearPPA SignedMainePublicLaw270 Dr.H.J.Dagher,(207)5812138hd@umit.maine.edu

Fabrication&Deployment p y Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Cianbro

  • Taskmanagerforfabricationanddeployment.
  • 2,500employees,providespreconstruction,construction, and maintenance services throughout North America.

andmaintenanceservicesthroughoutNorthAmerica.

Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

GeneralDynamics BIW y

  • 5,000employeesatBathIronWorkssite.
  • Fabrication and deployment
  • Fabricationanddeployment.
  • Maintainsandoperatesdrydock.
  • RecentlylauncheditsAegisDestroyerSpruance.

Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Technipp

  • FabricatedStatoilsHywind 1.
  • Design consultant and fabrication consultant
  • Designconsultantandfabricationconsultant.
  • Worldleaderinengineering,technologies, andprojectmanagementfortheoilandgas industries.

Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

TheMainePlan:OvertheHorizonFarms:

ANationalElectrificationModel 3GW 5GW 5GW electrifies heatingand transportation Dr.H.J.Dagher (207)5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu transportation

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